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AWARDS 2014: SPECIAL PROJECTS
POTENTIAL TSUNAMI
INUNDATION LIMITS
AND RUN-UP MODELING
SUBMITTED BY:
Mike Brady, P.Eng.
AECOM Canada Ltd.
200 – 415 George Road East
Victoria, BC V8T 2W1
T 250.475.6355
F 250.475.6388
E [email protected]
75 WORD SUMMARY
75 WORD
SUMMARY
Section 1
AECOM - POTENTIAL TSUNAMI INUNDATION LIMITS AND RUN-UP MODELING
SECTION 1
75 WORD
SUMMARY
The Capital Regional District
(CRD) needed to better
understand tsunami risk in
the Capital Region. AECOM,
with Dr. K. F. Cheung, used
a state-of-the-art non-
hydrostatic model to analyze
a magnitude 9.0 megathrust
earthquake and the effects
from a resulting tsunami.
The products - consisting of
computer animations, colour-
scaled figures and a Tsunami
Hazard Line - helped to develop
emergency preparation,
planning, evacuation, and
awareness programs.
Tsunami Hazard Line - Victoria Harbour
ASSOCIATION OF CANADIAN CONSULTING ENGINEER AWARDS 2014 — SPECIAL PROJECTS
1
PROJECT HIGHLIGHTS
PROJECT
HIGHLIGHTS
Section 2
AECOM - POTENTIAL TSUNAMI INUNDATION LIMITS AND RUN-UP MODELING
SECTION 2
PROJECT
HIGHLIGHTS
2.1 INNOVATION
This project delivered a more
detailed and accurate model
and representation of the
tsunami impacts than was
available for previous mapping
of the region. This was made
possible by the intensive model
compilation and analysis
completed by the AECOM team.
The CRD includes a coastline
several hundred kilometres
Ogden Point - with Tsunami Hazard Line
long around the southern tip
of Vancouver Island, near to
the Cascadia Subduction Zone
(CSZ). A CSZ earthquake has
a strong potential to occur
sometime within this or the next
elevations throughout the
generation.
region, including the Strait of
Juan de Fuca, Gulf Islands, US
The AECOM team undertook
San Juan Islands, and Puget
detailed modeling of the
effects of a magnitude 9.0 CSZ Sound. The analysis used a
state-of-the-art hydro-dynamic
megathrust earthquake that
computer simulation model,
could occur off the west coast
NEOWAVE, developed by Dr.
of Vancouver Island and the
Cheung, to determine shoreline
resulting impacts of tsunami
impacts and develop a Tsunami
inundation limits and run-up
Hazard Line (THL). The model
has won in competition against
seven other tsunami numerical
models and has been validated
against data obtained from
a number of recent tsunami
events, including the 2011
Tohoku tsunami in Japan. It is
the official model for tsunami
inundation mapping in Hawaii,
American Samoa, and the US
Gulf of Mexico coastal states.
ASSOCIATION OF CANADIAN CONSULTING ENGINEER AWARDS 2014 — SPECIAL PROJECTS
1
AECOM - POTENTIAL TSUNAMI INUNDATION LIMITS AND RUN-UP MODELING
SECTION 2
PROJECT HIGHLIGHTS CONT’D
NEOWAVE was used to analyze
each of five nested grids, ranging
from the North Pacific Ocean to
Victoria Harbour, with increasing
accuracy required and applied
to the smaller grid areas. The
model simulates a period of
approximately eight hours after
the onset of the CSZ earthquake
for each of the grid sizes and
generates results for the
following parameters:
• maximum water elevation
(based upon a starting water
level of Higher High Water
Mean Tide (HHWMT) as
recommended by the National
Tsunami Hazard Mitigation
Program (NTHMP)
Maximum Water Level - Capitol Region District
• maximum water level
drawdown
• maximum water flow velocities
• time to tsunami arrival
• time to maximum water
level (including water level
resonance effects)
The results provided CRD
with valuable tools to assist
in development of emergency
preparation, planning, evacuation
and awareness programs, and
communicate warning signs to
the public and stakeholders.
They also inform CRD’s public
Maximum Flow Speed - Capitol Region District
outreach and education
programs including tsunami
FAQs, information cards, public
service announcements,
pamphlets with local evacuation
planning maps, and powerpoint
presentation for community
workshops.
ASSOCIATION OF CANADIAN CONSULTING ENGINEER AWARDS 2014 — SPECIAL PROJECTS
2
AECOM - POTENTIAL TSUNAMI INUNDATION LIMITS AND RUN-UP MODELING
SECTION 2
PROJECT HIGHLIGHTS CONT’D
fety
ake sa
u
Earthq
“felt”
from a
gion is
our re
i risk in
am
un
t ts
ty:
• Mos uake.
ke safe
rthqua
earthq
your ea
ember
• Rem
Tsunami
nd
Capital
Regional
District
Tsunami
Hazard
Line
Hazard
Line
Regional
District
Boundar
Electoral
y
Area or
Municipa
l Boundar
First Nation
y
Reserves
Universal
What is
a tsunam
i?
occur.
00
0 1.5
3
Projection:
H-mee)
ict if a tsun
ami may
Tsunami
Capital
1:300,0
(soo-NA
Tsunamis
(Japanese
translation
“harbour
A tsuna
wave”)
mi is a natu
are wave
great dista
s with a
ral haza
long surge
nce betw
rd cons
-like wave
een crest
are cause
s generated isting of a serie
of ocean
s, and
d by any
s of
water is
widesprea
sudden
rapidly displ when a large
movement
known for
d,
volume
aced
their capa
of
of wate
r. The tsuna large volumes
causing
city to viole . Tsunamis are
devastatin
ntly flood
mi grow
the ocea
g property
s tall as
of life.
n shallo
coastlines
ws, such
damage,
,
harbour.
as in a
injuries,
In ancie
and loss
nt Japan
people often
, the
Majo
r submarine
witnessed
rise direc
the wave
or coast
significant
tly out of
al earth
displacem
the harb
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or and
the cause
ent of the
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e there
of most
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are most
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mi. Tsun
tsunamis.
the bigge
prevalent
or coast
amis
They also
st tsuna
are
in the Pacif
Ocean,
mis, in term
cause some
but are
and the
ic
known to
size of the
s of wave
of
all ocea
occur in
height at
inundation
n basins.
area is the
shore
area. The
area that
inundation
will be subje
ct to flood
Coastal
these affec
ing.
and subm
t a much
arine
eruptions
smaller
are not
length of
associated
, can occas landslides, and
coast and
volcanic
with trem
ionally cause
or there
are infre
’s roaring
bling of
tsunamis
quent.
the
like a jet
too, but
Some lands
engine from earth: you shou
lides and
ld always
the ocea
There are
eruptions
evacuate
n.
two types
if the ocea
local tsuna
of tsuna
n
reced
mis: local
mi will be
es
and dista
while a
associated
nt. A
distant
with a “felt”
tsunami
be notif
will happ
earthquak
ied by offici
en far away
e,
als if any
and you
actions
will
are nece
Tsunami
ssary.
waves diffe
r from ordin
the entir
e colum
ary coast
n of
surface
al wave
s
is affected. water from the
ocean floor in that
Tsunami
energy;
to
wave
they trave
the
s conta
l further
coastal
inland comp in considerable
waves.
A tsuna
ared to
but will
mi may
ordin
have very
not look
strong ocea
like a wave ary
surface.
n currents
at all,
under the
A tsuna
mi is a serie
s of wave
may be
separated
s. The first
by up to
wave to
from the
an hour
arriv
shore until
e is often
or more
local gove
not the
. Waves
rnment
largest,
may conti
officials
and each
nue for
tell you
wave
many hour
There is
it is safe
s – stay
no way
to retur
away
n.
to pred
er grou
to high
ean, go s stopped.
the oc
e near e shaking ha
ar
u
• If yo nd once th
or inla
Mercator.
1|Pag
Kilometres
6
Transverse
9
Zone 10,
North.
North American
DISCLAIMER
Datum
e
1983.
SOUTHE
RN GULF
ISLAND
ELECTO
S
RAL AREA
Important
This
Capital
Regional map is for general
warranties
District
information
(CRD) makes
suitability regarding
purposes
navigation.of the map the accuracy or no representatio only. The
ns or
The CRD for any purpose.completenes
injury resulting
will
s
and the
from the not be liableThis map is of this map or
map may
not
the
use
be changedof the map for any damage,for
by the CRDor information loss or
at any time. on the map
| TsunamiHazard
April 2013
LineTerrainCRD
ANSIB.mxd
|
[email protected]
SALTSPR
ING ISLAND
ELECTO
RAL
AREA
Cowichan
Valley Regi
onal
District
NORTH
SAANIC
H
SIDNEY
JUAN DE
ELECTO FUCA
RAL AREA
e Safety
Earthquakpital Region
in the Ca
CENTRA
L
SAANIC
H
Regional
District
HIGHLA
NDS
LANGFO
RD
SOOKE
CO
OO
LW
METCHO
SIN
D
SAANIC
H
hquake:
y including:
an eart
your famil
Before
y plan for
emergenc
Have an
routes
evacuation
} Possible
areas
meeting
} Designated
, then
hquake:
an eart
shaking stops
until the
DurInG
On
d you.
r and Hold
ds aroun
} Drop, Coveand look for hazar
60
count to
BAY
Capital
W
VIE YAL
RO
Emergency preparation plans,
public awareness and proper
training are instrumental
in keeping the public safe
when disaster strikes. Just as
important, is the information
that these plans are built
upon. Previous maps were built
upon simplistic assumptions
and did not account for the
entire area within the region
or the many factors likely to
influence the potential impacts
of a tsunami. The new tsunami
hazard line and supporting
maps, simulations and colourscaled figures provide easily
understood information to
explain the potential effects
not only to the CRD, but
also to policy-makers and
residents. The more that people
understand the warning signs
and what to do, the better
prepared they are to survive and
address emergency events.
from multiple data sources
of varying accuracy, age
and reliability. The results
provided CRD with valuable
tools to assist in development
of emergency preparation,
planning, evacuation and
awareness programs, and
communicate warning signs to
the public and stakeholders.
They also informed CRD’s
public outreach and education
programs including tsunami
FAQs, information cards,
public service announcements,
pamphlets with local
evacuation planning maps, and
powerpoint presentation for
community workshops.
OAK
2.2 SOCIAL AND/
OR ECONOMIC
BENEFITS
ESQUIM
ALT
VICTORIA
Tsunami
Preparedness
in the Capital
Region
away from
to the side
vehicle!
le, pull over
Stay in your
are in a vehic and buildings.
away
} If you
area. Stay
overpasses
bridges,
into an open
e, move
are outsid debris may fall.
} If you
ings as
from build
ake
a for
earthqu
social medi
after an
radio, and
to local TV,
after the
} Stay tuned .
occur soon
information
which may
aftershocks
} Anticipate .
(please see
a tsunami
in
first quake
result
shaking could
} Strong
reverse).
hquakes
A presentation by:
Program
rnment Emergency
the CRD Local Gove
(LG EPAC) and your
Advisory Commission
rams
prog
cy
community emergen
CRD Public Outreach
on eart
information
aredness,
For more emergency prep
and general eYourself.ca
par
go to Pre
ams
gency progr
the emer n.
to you by
al Regio
Brought
in the Capit
Safety in
Tsunami Region
l
the Capita
e
r earthquak
on
n a majo
ocean whe rs, or if the motior
near the
occu
nd
If you are seconds or more to higher grou
go
ing!
lasting 60
to stand,
difficult
official warn
d
makes it not wait for an
do
usually cause
inland s that are
lides or
wave
lands
large
by
of
red
are a series can also be trigge
Tsunamis
quake, but
by an earth
explosions.
amI:
ground
of tsun
to higher
In Case
a
Do move
medi
local
tuned to
Do stay
ctions of
the instru
Do follow
4m
13ft
watch
authorities
water to
go near the
Do not
h for:
s to WatC
amI sIGn
level
other tsun
fall of ocean
n rise or
the ocean
} A sudde
far
coming from
earthquake
roaring noise
from an
} A loud
may result
tsunami
A Distant
t feel.
e
we won’
of thre
away that
one
e
Issu
Ies maY
authorIt
d if the
Ions:
alert) is issue alert for
fICat
of
notI
s level
d stay
you shoul
h (least seriou
known and
1. A Watc
not
is
tes
danger level ation.
alert) indica away
st level of
more inform
nd highe
should stay
and you
sory (seco
2. An advi g currents are likely
that
that stron
indicates
shore.
from the
level of alert) ation may be
t serious
ing (mos is possible and evacu
3. A Warn
ating wave
an inund
danger
the
you when
suggested.
ls will tell
rnment officia
gove
Local
d.
risk in the
has passe
tsunami
e about
urself.ca
To learn mor go to PrepareYo
ion,
Capital Reg
Capital Regional District
Tsunami
Hazard Line
SOUTHERN GULF ISLANDS
ELECTORAL AREA
Tsunami Hazard Line
Capital Regional District Boundary
Electoral Area or Municipal Boundary
First Nation Reserves
1:300,000
Kilometres
0 1.5 3
6
SALTSPRING ISLAND
ELECTORAL
AREA
9
Projection: Universal Transverse Mercator. Zone 10, North. North American Datum 1983.
DISCLAIMER
Important This map is for general information purposes only. The
Capital Regional District (CRD) makes no representations or
warranties regarding the accuracy or completeness of this map or the
suitability of the map for any purpose. This map is not for
navigation. The CRD will not be liable for any damage, loss or
injury resulting from the use of the map or information on the map
and the map may be changed by the CRD at any time.
April 2013
|
TsunamiHazardLineTerrainCRDANSIB.mxd
|
[email protected]
Cowichan Valley Regional District
NORTH
SAANICH
SIDNEY
CENTRAL
SAANICH
JUAN DE FUCA
ELECTORAL AREA
Capital Regional District
HIGHLANDS
SAANICH
EW L
VI YA
RO
LANGFORD
OO
LW
CO
SOOKE
METCHOSIN
OAK BAY
AECOM undertook intensive
preparatory work to develop
a seamless topographic
and bathymetric Digital
Elevation Model (DEM) drawn
D
ESQUIMALT
VICTORIA
Tsunami Map
ASSOCIATION OF CANADIAN CONSULTING ENGINEER AWARDS 2014 — SPECIAL PROJECTS
3
AECOM - POTENTIAL TSUNAMI INUNDATION LIMITS AND RUN-UP MODELING
SECTION 2
PROJECT HIGHLIGHTS CONT’D
• Nested grid creation for
increasing detail and
accuracy of analysis varying
from the scale of the North
Pacific Ocean down to Victoria
Harbour.
• Model simulation of CSZ
earthquake occurrence and
analysis of tsunami effects
on each of the nested grids
over a period of approximately
eight hours following the
event.
The analysis helped the CRD
to improve and increase the
sustainability of its emergency
planning, evacuation, and
awareness programs for the
safety of its citizens.
DEM Creation
Emergency preparation and
planning is critical to the safety
of people and also plays a
significant role in sustainable
planning and development
of the environment and
infrastructure. Even regions
previously thought to be the
most tsunami aware and
prepared have been devastated
by the unanticipated affects of
a tsunami, as evidenced by the
2011 Tohoku earthquake and
tsunami in Japan.
• DEM resolution and
interpretation to provide
a continuous coastline
throughout the entire CRD
using a consistent datum
Multiple Data
Sources
Earthquake
Scenario Review
Continuous
Coastline Creation
5-Level Nested
Grid Creation
NEOWAVE
Model Results
2.3
ENVIRONMENTAL
BENEFITS
Max Water
Level
CRD Public
Education
Min Water
Level
Max Flow
Speed
Arrival
Time
Time to
Max Water
Level
Community
Workshops
Emergency
Planning
Tsunami Hazard Line
FAQ
Info
Cards
PSA
Evacuation
Maps
Model Development, Analysis, Results
The AECOM team’s work as part
of an intensive data compilation
and model analysis included:
• Earthquake Scenario review
which determined the most
likely 1-in-500 year CSZ event
• Seamless topographic
and bathymetric digital
elevation model creation
including data assembly
from multiple sources having
varying accuracies, ages and
reliabilities, using multiple
datums and overcoming
trans-boundary differences in
data and nomenclature
Tsunami Arrival Time - Capitol Region District
ASSOCIATION OF CANADIAN CONSULTING ENGINEER AWARDS 2014 — SPECIAL PROJECTS
4
AECOM - POTENTIAL TSUNAMI INUNDATION LIMITS AND RUN-UP MODELING
SECTION 2
PROJECT HIGHLIGHTS CONT’D
2.4 MEETING
CLIENT’S NEEDS
AECOM supported the CRD
in achieving its objectives to
guide emergency preparedness
public education outreach
programs by:
I. delivering results summaries
in a series of computer
animations and colourscaled figures showing
maximum and minimum
water levels, maximum flows
speeds, tsunami arrival time
and time to maximum water
level;
II. defining the tsunami hazard
line, which took into account
ground subsidence following
the CSZ, maximum water
level and a factor for public
safety, and application of
the THL to CRD publiclyaccessible GIS mapping;
III.presenting results and
summary report to CRD staff,
stakeholders, and elected
politicians;
Maximum Water Level – Northeastern Pacific Ocean
IV.achieving savings in time and
money for the wastewater
treatment program by
adding the needed additional
analysis onto the original
assignment.
ASSOCIATION OF CANADIAN CONSULTING ENGINEER AWARDS 2014 — SPECIAL PROJECTS
5

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