EURAC

Climate Change Vulnerability Analysis:
Concepts, Approaches, Practices
Dr. Stefan Schneiderbauer
EURAC.Research, Bolzano Italy, Institute for Applied Remote Sensing,
Risk, Vulnerability and Climate Change Unit
([email protected])
rationale
Institute for Applied Remote Sensing
Yearly mean temperature
Bolzano
IPCC AR5 WG2
Stefan Schneiderbauer – EURAC
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concepts
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IPCC AR4 WG2
“Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate
of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its
sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.” (Parry 2007, p. 883)
RICCAR/ACCWaM WS on Applying the CCVA in the Arab Region, Beirut, 11-13 May 2014
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concepts (ctd.)
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IPCC AR4 WG2
Status Quo
Climate
Change
Other
Stressors
Exposure
Natural
Environment
Societal
Environment
Sensitivity
Strengths +
Weaknesses
Including
history of
Adaptation
Potential, Future
Potential Impacts
Adaptive Capacity
Without
additional
Adaptation
Vulnerability
Stefan Schneiderbauer – EURAC
(Technical, financial,
institutional)
Capacity (Technical,
financial, institutional)
Incl. Barriers +
Limitations
Threats
(+Opportunities)
Mitigation
Adaptation Options
Demand and
Options for
Adaptation
Opportunities
RICCAR/ACCWaM WS on Applying the CCVA in the Arab Region, Beirut, 11-13 May 2014
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Concepts (ctd.)
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The risk triangle
Crichton, D. (1999)
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RICCAR/ACCWaM WS on Applying the CCVA in the Arab Region, Beirut, 11-13 May 2014
Concepts (ctd.)
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IPCC AR5 WG2
Vulnerability: The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected.
Vulnerability encompasses a variety of concepts and elements including
sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.
Stefan Schneiderbauer – EURAC
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Concepts (ctd.)
Exposure
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Sensitivity
Potential Impacts
Adaptive Capacity
Vulnerability
Adaptation
Stefan Schneiderbauer – EURAC
RICCAR/ACCWaM WS on Applying the CCVA in the Arab Region, Beirut, 11-13 May 2014
Pitfalls of VAs
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Complexity – representation of the whole system
False pretences of being straight forward / measurable
Vulnerability IPCC <> Vulnerability DRR
Synchronisation in AR5?
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approaches
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purposes
Identifying current and potential hotspots:
Vulnerability assessments can compare susceptibility to climate change in multiple systems. They
also allow better understanding of the factors driving the vulnerability of particular climate change
hotspot (e.g. a specific geographical area or industry, which is more severely affected by climate
change than others).
Identifying entry points for intervention:
Information on the factors underlying a system’s vulnerability can serve as a starting point for
identifying suitable adaptation interventions. Adaptation can reduce vulnerability by increasing a
system’s adaptive capacities and by decreasing its sensitivity to climate change.
Tracking changes in vulnerability and monitoring & evaluation (M&E)
of adaptation:
A relatively new approach is to use vulnerability assessments to track changes in climate change
vulnerability over time. This complements existing methods for M&E of adaptation measures and
generates additional knowledge on the effectiveness of adaptation. The Conceptual Framework
provides a brief introduction to this topic. Chapter 3 deals with the application of vulnerability
assessments for M&E of adaptation in more detail .
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Stefan Schneiderbauer – EURAC
Approaches – fixed steps
Impact Chain
Metrics /
Indicators
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Evaluation
Cause
effect
Who and what is vulnerable?
To which exposure / impact?
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Method to quantify the
factors of the impact
chains and their relations /
correlations
Method to assess the
results of this
quantification
RICCAR/ACCWaM WS on Applying the CCVA in the Arab Region, Beirut, 11-13 May 2014
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approaches
characteristics of the VA
Top-down
VA Arab region
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3 axis
characteristics
Global / regional
explorative
Data driven
Opinion driven
Spatially explicit
Context specific
focused
Bottom-up
local
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Stefan Schneiderbauer – EURAC
approaches (ctd.)
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Selection of methodology
quantitative vs. qualitative
modeling vs. indicator assessment vs. expert knowledge
aggregation vs. individual results
Stefan Schneiderbauer – EURAC
RICCAR/ACCWaM WS on Applying the CCVA in the Arab Region, Beirut, 11-13 May 2014
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Vulnerability to floods in Austria –
data driven
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University Salzburg
PLUS – Z_GIS
Stefan Schneiderbauer – EURAC
RICCAR/ACCWaM WS on Applying the CCVA in the Arab Region, Beirut, 11-13 May 2014
Vulnerability to cc – opinion driven
Stefan Schneiderbauer – EURAC
Institute for Applied Remote Sensing
RICCAR/ACCWaM WS on Applying the CCVA in the Arab Region, Beirut, 11-13 May 2014
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Bolivia – focused M & E
M. Zebisch / S. Schneiderbauer
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RICCAR/ACCWaM WS on Applying the CCVA in the Arab Region, Beirut, 11-13 May 2014
Europe – data driven, explorative
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Stefan Schneiderbauer – EURAC
RICCAR/ACCWaM WS on Applying the CCVA in the Arab Region, Beirut, 11-13 May 2014
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Data driven – very complex,
limited spatially explicit
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IPCC AR5 WG2
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Stefan Schneiderbauer – EURAC
Some conclusions
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All VAs:
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normative decisions are necessary,
For example: focus sectors or impacts, selection
of indicators, rules for aggregation etc.
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When aggregation:
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realism – study design and expectations to results must be appropriate to
time and resources available
balance: deep versus broad
transparency – show intermediate results
Spatially explicit, multi-sector VAs:
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highly complex modular structure
literature and experience is rare
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2014
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Thank you for your attention!
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