cognitive and behavioral biase

BEHAVIORAL OPERATIONS
RESEARCH – BOR
experiments on games, human
interaction and decision making
The study of behavioral aspects related to the use of
operations research methods in modeling, problem
solving, and decision support,
and
The use of OR methods in modelling human behavior
The pioneers of OR,
West Churchman and Russell Ackoff:
OR is not mathematics only
Follower
how cooperation develops in repeated
strategic interaction?
incomplete information
cheap talk
Cooperation (C), Cournot-Nash (N),
40
entering
35
leaving
Stackelberg (S), Second-play (S+)
People / minute
30
25
20
15
10
Leader
5
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14 16 18
Minute
20
22
24
26
28
30
The department store task: during which minute were
the most people in the store? 44% correct
is cooperation emotional
or cognitive?
psychophysiological
experiments in repeated
duopoly games
Facial electromyography
Skin conductance response
Heart rate variability
cognitive and behavioral biases in
modeling and decision making
Weighting methods
yield different
weights
Number of attribute
levels effect in
conjoint analysis
Weights
derived from
ordinal
information
Hierarchical
weighting leads to
steeper weigths
Averages over a
group yield even
weights
Normalization
Rank reversal in
AHP
Man with a hammer
Appeal to authority
Overconfidence
Beauty effect
Cognitive dissonance
Commitment bias
Scale compatibility bias
Loss aversion
Groupthink
Yes
Range effect
path dependence
Division of attributes
changes weights
Splitting bias
This is the
right model
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
the outcome of the decision process
depends on the path followed
supply chain
decision making
DM
chooses A
DM
chooses B
accumulation of
scale compatibility
and loss aversion
create path dependence
in the Even Swaps method
selected publications and manuscripts
L. Alberto Franco and Raimo P. Hämäläinen (eds.), Special Issue: Behavioral Operations Research, 2015, European Journal of Operational Research
R.P. Hämäläinen, J. Luoma and E. Saarinen: On the Importance of Behavioral Operational Research: The Case of Understanding and Communicating
about Dynamic Systems. European Journal of Operational Research 228, 2013
A. Käki, J. Liesiö, A. Salo and S. Talluri: Newsvendor decisions under supply uncertainty. International Journal of Production Research
R.P. Hämäläinen and I. Leppänen: Cheap talk and cooperation in Stackelberg games. Manuscript 2014
R.P. Hämäläinen: Behavioural modelling research - the missing perspective. Manuscript 2014
T.J. Lahtinen and R.P. Hämäläinen: Biases and path dependency in the Even Swaps method. Manuscript 2014
M. Pöyhönen, H.C.J. Vrolijk and R.P. Hämäläinen: Behavioral and Procedural Consequences of Structural Variation in Value Trees. European Journal of
Operational Research, Vol. 134/1, 2001
M. Pöyhönen and R.P. Hämäläinen: Notes on the weighting biases in value trees. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, Vol. 11, 1998, pp. 139-150.
M. Pöyhönen, R.P. Hämäläinen and A. A. Salo: An experiment on the numerical modeling of verbal ratio statements. Journal of Multi-Criteria Decision
Analysis, Vol. 6, 1997

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