Back Matter (PDF) - Law, Probability and Risk

Law,
Probability
& Risk
Editor-in-Chief
Prof. J. Gastwirth, Department of Statistics, George Washington University, Washington, DC, 20052, USA.
E-mail: [email protected]
Assistant Editor
Prof. Q. Pan, Department of Statistics, George Washington University, Washington, DC, 20052, USA. E-mail: [email protected]
Editors
Prof. C. G. G. Aitken, School of Mathematics, The King’s Buildings, The University of Edinburgh, Mayfield Road,
Edinburgh, EH9 3JZ, UK. E-mail: [email protected]
Prof. E. Cheng, Vanderbilt University Law School, 131 21st Avenue South, Nashville, TN37203, USA.
E-mail: [email protected]
Prof. J. Franklin, School of Mathematics, University of New South Wales, Sydney 2052, Australia.
E-mail: [email protected]
Prof. J. J. Koehler, Northwestern University School of Law, 375 E. Chicago Avenue, Chicago, IL 60611-3069,
USA. E-mail: [email protected]
Prof. F. Taroni, Ecole des sciences criminelles, University of Lausanne, B. C. H. 1015, Lausanne-Dorigny, Switzerland.
E-mail: [email protected]
Law, Probability & Risk is a fully refereed journal which publishes papers dealing with topics on the interface of law and
probabilistic reasoning. These are interpreted broadly to include
aspects relevant to the interpretation of scientific evidence, the
assessment of uncertainty and the assessment of risk. The readership includes academic lawyers, mathematicians, statisticians and
social scientists with interests in quantitative reasoning. Examples
include: evaluation, interpretation and presentation of evidence,
estimation of compensation for serious injuries, the relevance and
reliability of genetic tests for insurance purposes with consequent
considerations of legal or quasi-legal criteria for allowable discrimination; legal conflicts affecting the efficiency of credit scoring on the basis of the different types of data permitted to be held
by credit bureaux in the UK, the US and the rest of Europe; the
detection of fraudulent transactions live, using expert systems and
statistical analyses. Non-evidence law topics include environmental issues, mass torts, causation, risk assessment, medical and
pharmaceut ical litigation involving the evaluation of epidemiological and bio-statistical evidence according to legal criteria. The
primary objective of the journal is to cover issues in law, which
have a scientific element, with an emphasis on statistical and
probabilistic issues and the assessment of risk. Further details are
available on www.lpr.oxfordjournals.org.
Instructions to Authors Submitting authors should bear in
mind that the journal is a multidisciplinary journal, intended to be
read by lawyers, mathematicians and statisticians.
• Please include an abstract of no more than 200 words, and up
Book Review Editors
to six keywords.
Prof. E. Bura, Department of Statistics, George Washington University, Washington, DC, 20052, USA. E-mail: [email protected]
Dr D. Lucy, Centre for Applied Statistics, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Fylde College, Lancaster University,
Lancaster LA1 4YF, UK. E-mail: [email protected]
• The bulk of material must not be too technical; place techni-
Editorial Board
• Papers should contain some explanation of what they are
cal details in footnotes.
• Some formulae are permitted: general formulae in the text,
particular formulae in footnotes.
R. Baldwin (Department of Law, London School of
Economics, London, UK)
D. Bourcier (Centre de Theorie du Droit,University
of Paris 10, France)
S. Brewer (Harvard Law School, Massachusetts, USA)
P. Cane (Research School of Social Sciences,
Australian National University, Australia)
C. Champod (Ecole des sciences criminelles, University of
Lausanne, Switzerland)
A. Gammerman (Department of Computer Science,
Royal Holloway, University of London, Egham, UK)
P. Garbolino (Faculty of Arts and Design, IUAV University,
Venice, Italy)
R. Hastie (Centre for Decision Research, University of
Chicago, Chicago, USA)
A. Izenman (Department of Statistics, Temple University,
Philadelphia, USA)
R. Lempert (School of Law, University of Michigan, Ann
Arbor, USA)
L. Luparia (Universita degli Studi di Milano, Milan, Italy)
P. Mangin (Institute of Forensic Medecine, University of
Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland)
S. Penrod (Department of Psychology, John Jay College of
Criminal Justice, New York, USA)
M. Redmayne (Faculty of Law, London School of
Economics & Political Science, London, UK)
H. Reece (School of Law, Birkbeck College, London, UK)
P. Roberts (School of Law, Nottingham
University, Nottingham, UK)
G. Sartor (Faculty of Philosophy, Bologna University,
Bologna, Italy)
B. Schafer (Centre for Law and Society, Edinburgh
University, Edinburgh, UK)
D. Schum (Department of Operations Research &
Engineering, George Mason University, Virginia, USA)
R. Shapira (Faculty of Law, Bar Ilan University, Ramat
Gan, Israel)
R. Smith (Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Edinburgh, UK)
L. Thomas (School of Management, University of
Southampton, UK)
P. Tillers (Benjamin N. Cardozo School of Law, Yeshiva
University, New York, USA)
G. van Calster (Institute of Energy and Environmental Law,
Collegium Falconis, K.U. Leuven, Belgium)
V. R. Walker (School of Law, Hofstra University,
Hempstead, New York, USA)
about that can be understood by everyone. However, the
Editors accept that not all papers need to be entirely intelligible to all readers.
• References: Name and year in the text, in the text. Full refer-
ences given at the back in alphabetical order by first-named
author. An alternative is acceptable with footnotes, numbered
(with a superscript) by place of first appearance in the text.
Look at earlier issues for examples.
• Footnotes should be numbered consecutively in the order in
which they are first mentioned in the text. Footnotes in text,
tables and legend should be identified by arabic numbers
appearing in the text in superscript, for example 5 or 5–7 or 5,16
for unrelated footnotes.
Submission of papers
Manuscripts may be submitted electronically using Microsoft
Word, Wordperfect, LATEX or on paper, in which case the original
and three copies should be submitted. In either case (paper or
electronic submission) before a paper is finally accepted, a signed
letter from the corresponding author is required specifying the
name, full mailing address and telephone/fax numbers and e-mail
address of the person who will act as corresponding author. The
covering letter should also specify, if applicable, information
about possible duplicate publication problems, financial or other
relationships that could give rise to conflicts of interest and any
other information the editors may need to make an informed decision in accordance with established policies and practices.
Manuscripts may be submitted to any one of the six editors:
1. Prof. Colin Aitken, School of Mathematics, The King’s
Buildings, The University of Edinburgh, Mayfield Road,
Edinburgh, EH9 3JZ, UK. Tel: +44 (0) 131 650 4877; Fax:
+44 (0) 131 650 6553; E-mail: [email protected]
2. Prof. E. Cheng, Vanderbilt University Law School, 131 21st
Avenue South, Nashville, TN37203, USA. E-mail: edward.
[email protected]
3. Prof. J. Franklin, School of Mathematics, University of New
South Wales, Sydney 2052, Australia. Tel: +61 2 93857093;
Fax: +61 2 93857123; E-mail: [email protected]
4. Prof. J. Gastwirth, Department of Statistics, George
Washington University, Washington, DC, 20052, USA. Tel:
202 994 6356; Fax: 202 994 6917; E-mail: [email protected]
5. Prof. J. J. Koehler, Northwestern University School of Law,
375 E. Chicago Avenue, Chicago, IL 60611-3069, USA. Tel:
001 312 503 4469; E-mail: [email protected]
6. Prof. F. Taroni, Ecole des sciences criminelles, University
of Lausanne, B.C.H. 1015. Lausanne-Dorigny, Switzerland,
Tel: +41 21 692 4646; Fax: +41 21 692 4605; E-mail:
[email protected]
However, it would ease processing of submissions if the following
general rules were followed: all submissions of a legal nature
should go to Professor Tillers; those of a behavioural nature to
Professor Koehler, those of a mathematical or statistical nature
should go to Professor Gastwirth (North American submissions),
Professor Aitken or Professor Franklin, those of a forensic science
nature to Professor Taroni. If in doubt, send the submission to
Professor Gastwirth who will decide how to process it.
Books for review should be sent to either Professor E. Bura,
Department of Statistics, George Washington University,
Washington, DC, 20052, USA. E-mail: [email protected], or
Dr. D. Lucy, Centre for Applied Statistics, Department of
Mathematics and Statistics, Fylde College, Lancaster University,
Lancaster LA1 4YF, UK. E-mail: [email protected]
Manuscript layout
Manuscripts must be written in English. The manuscript should
be typed double-spaced, including title page, abstract, text,
acknowledgements, footnotes, tables and legends.
Tables and figures
For paper submissions an original and three complete copies of all
tables and figures (including photographs and line drawings) must
be included.
Licence to Publish
It is a condition of publication in Law, Probability and Risk that
authors grant an exclusive licence to Oxford University Press. This
ensures that requests from third parties to reproduce articles are
handled efficiently and consistently, and will also allow the article to
be as widely disseminated as possible. In granting an exclusive
licence, authors may use their own material in publications
provided that the Journal is acknowledged as the original
place of publication, and Oxford University Press is notified in
writing and in advance. It is the author’s responsibility to obtain
permission to reproduce verbal or visual material from copyright
sources.
Printed by Bell and Bain Ltd, UK
Typeset by Cenveo publisher services, Bangalore, India
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ISSN 1470-8396 (PRINT)
ISSN 1470-840X (ONLINE)
LAW, PROBABILITY & RISK
Law,
Probability
& Risk
A journal of reasoning
under uncertainty
VOLUME 13 ● NUMBERS 3–4 ● SEPTEMBER–DECEMBER 2014
Law,
Probability
& Risk
A journal of reasoning
under uncertainty
Papers from the Workshop on Formal Argument and Evidential
Inference, ICAIL, Rome, June 10–14 2013
VOLUME 13, NUMBERS 3–4 SEPTEMBER–DECEMBER 2014
193 SCOTT BREWER, GUSTAVO RIBEIRO AND GIOVANNI SARTOR
Introduction
195 RONALD J. ALLEN
Burdens of proof
221 DAVID HAMER
Presumptions, standards and burdens: managing the cost of error
243 FEDERICO PICINALI
Innocence and burdens of proof in English criminal law
259 VERN R. WALKER
Representing the use of rule-based presumptions in legal decision documents
277 JOSEPH L. GASTWIRTH AND WENJING XU
Statistical tools for evaluating the adequacy of the size of a sample on which
statistical evidence is based
307 BART VERHEIJ
To catch a thief with and without numbers: arguments, scenarios and
probabilities in evidential reasoning
327 HENRY PRAKKEN
On direct and indirect probabilistic reasoning in legal proof
VOLUME 13 ● NUMBERS 3–4 ● SEPTEMBER–DECEMBER 2014
Editor in Chief
JOSEPH GASTWIRTH
PP. 193–337
SPECIAL ISSUE
Papers from the Workshop
on Formal Argument and
Evidential Inference, ICAIL,
Rome, June 10–14 2013
Guest Editors
Scott Brewer, Gustavo
Ribeiro and Giovanni Sartor
www.lpr.oxfordjournals.org
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