Prospects in the United States: Energy Opportunities and Challenges Utica Summit II Canton OH October 14, 2014 Christopher Guith Senior Vice President - Policy Institute for 21st Century Energy U.S. Chamber of Commerce U. S. C h a m b e r English Literature Does Matter o f C o m m e r c e It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way… -A Tale of Two Cities (1859) Charles Dickens U. S. C h a m b e r o f C o m m e r c e The New Energy Reality Energy Security is central to our national and economic security !  !  !  !  !  Demand to increase 56% by 2040 §  90% in non-OECD countries Electricity demand to increase 76% 1.4 billion people without electricity $38 trillion of new investment by 2035 to meet rising demand 90% world’s oil reserves owned by national oil companies Demand Comes from Developing World U. S. C h a m b e r o f C o m m e r c e Global Energy Demand by Region: 2008 & 2035 200 175 Quadrillion Btu 150 125 100 75 50 25 0 2035 2008 U. S. C h a m b e r o f C o m m e r c e We Possess Tremendous Domestic Energy Resources !  Technically Recoverable Resources §  120 years of Nat Gas §  206 Years of Oil §  464 years of Coal !  In-place Resources §  586 years of Nat Gas §  536 years of oil §  9,844 years of coal Institute for Energy Resources Analysis of U.S. Government Data U. S. C h a m b e r o f C o m m e r c e Shale Fueling Ohio Jobs Supported New Government Revenue (millions) Economic Growth (billions) 2012 2020 2035 38k 146k 267k $911 $4,594 $8,453 $4.1 $17.9 $35.3 $120 Billion in Gov Revs 2012-2035 IHS, America’s New Energy Future. October 2012 U. S. C h a m b e r o f Industrial Gas Consumption Returns C o m m e r c e U. S. C h a m b e r o f Shale Revolution Spawns Manufacturing Renaissance IHS, ANEF 2013 C o m m e r c e U. S. C h a m b e r o f C o m m e r c e Exports Increasingly Important to PetChem IHS, ANEF 2013 U. S. C h a m b e r o f C o m m e r c e It’s All About Price Differential U. S. C h a m b e r o f C o m m e r c e Diversity Has Been a Competitive Advantage IHS, The Value of US Power Supply Diversity, 7-14 U. S. C h a m b e r o f C o m m e r c e America’s New Energy Future U. S. C h a m b e r o f C o m m e r c e America’s New Energy Future U. S. C h a m b e r o f C o m m e r c e America’s New Energy Future U. S. C h a m b e r o f C o m m e r c e U.S. Oil Supply Source: BENTEK Crude Awakening/EIA U. S. C h a m b e r o f C o m m e r c e Refineries Running at Record Levels EIA, Weekly Petroleum Status Report, 7-24-14 U. S. C h a m b e r o f Liquids Supply & Demand Status !  !  !  !  C o m m e r c e Crude production has increased 70% since 2005 to 8.5 MMb/d (~1.2 MMb/d Condensate). EIA shows production hitting 9.3 MMb/d in 2015 Several independent analyses show production hitting 12 MMb/d by 2019 U.S. Refinery throughput is running 16.8 MMb/d. U. S. C h a m b e r o f C o m m e r c e We Can Still Screw This Up Loss Loss Loss A Bright Future is NOT a Given U. S. C h a m b e r o f C o m m e r c e 423 Actions Across 21 States State Measures (Passed) State Measures (Pending) Local Measures (Passed) Local Measures (Pending) Shale Plays Food & Water Watch: Mapping the Movement U. S. C h a m b e r o f C o m m e r c e Diversity Is Not Just a Virtue IHS, The Value of US Power Supply Diversity, 7-14 U. S. C h a m b e r o f EPA Rulemakings on the Runway C o m m e r c e U. S. Coal & Gas Prices C h a m b e r o f C o m m e r c e U. S. C h a m b e r Expected Coal Plant Closures o f C o m m e r c e • >50 GW prematurely retired by 2020 • 15%-20% of entire coal fleet • ~10% of all US generation Heavy Concentration on Retirements U. S. C h a m b e r o f C o m m e r c e U. S. C h a m b e r o f C o m m e r c e Federal Legislative/Regulatory Outlook !  Oil & Gas §  Fracking: BLM, EPA (water and air), exports §  Refining: RFS, Ozone §  Congress? !  Electricity §  Mercury §  CO2 §  Ozone §  Congress? U. S. THANK YOU! C h a m b e r o f C o m m e r c e Join us and help secure America’s Energy Future www.energyxxi.org Institute for 21st Century Energy @Energy21 23