PVR: Strong showing - Research

l Equity Research l
India l Emerging Companies
30 May 2014
PVR
Strong showing
 PVR reported 4QFY14 results that were above our OUTPERFORM (unchanged)
expectations. The higher-than-expected earnings were
PRICE as of 29 May 2014
PRICE TARGET
driven by strong spending per head and footfalls.
 Management was confident of continued strong
performance in FY15 driven by new screen additions and
strong content.
 We raise our FY15E/16E EPS by 30%/15%, as we account for
PVR’s final goodwill amortisation policy. Our FY15-16E
EBITDA remains unchanged.
INR 550.35
INR 630.00
Bloomberg code
Reuters code
PVRL IN
PVRL.BO
Market cap
12-month range
INR 22,625mn (USD 383mn)
INR 313.00 - 658.40
EPS adj. est. change 2015E
29.1%
2016E
14.7%
 Maintain Outperform with a new PT of INR 630 (valued at 9x
FY16E EV/EBITDA) on lower net debt.
Strong 4QFY14 results. 4QFY14 revenue and EBITDA came in at
INR 3.2bn and INR 352mn, respectively. EBITDA margin improved
350bps YoY to 11.1%. FY14 EBITDA at INR 2.2bn was in line with
our estimate. While average ticket prices (ATP) were down 2%
QoQ in 4QFY14 on weaker content and a seasonally weak quarter,
it was up 4% YoY for the full year (FY14). We estimate that FY14
F&B spending per head (SPH) at INR 50 increased 19% YoY and
FY14 footfalls were 60mn, up 9% YoY.
Raise FY15-16E EPS by 15-30% on goodwill accounting. While
our EBITDA forecasts remain unchanged (as the marginal increase
in SPH is offset by a decline in ATP), we raise our FY15-16E EPS
by 15-30% on PVR’s final goodwill amortisation policy.
Key beneficiary of GST reforms; Maintain OP. We raise our
March 2015 price target to INR 630 (from INR 620) due to lower
capex on fewer estimated screen additions. Our FY15E net debt is
now lower at INR 5.3bn (from INR 5.8bn). As highlighted in our
initiation note, India film exhibition – There is no business like show
business, published on 23 July 2013, we believe that PVR will be a
key beneficiary of any potential GST reforms. As there is no clarity
on the timing for GST reforms, we are not building this into our
forecasts; however, we believe that an introduction of GST reforms
could help PVR improve its EBITDA margin by 200-400bps.
Additionally, a potential recovery in commercial capex could help
PVR accelerate the pace of screen additions, in our view.
Year-end: March
Sales (INR mn)
EBITDA (INR mn)
EBIT (INR mn)
Pre-tax profit (INR mn)
Net profit adj. (INR mn)
FCF (INR mn)
EPS adj. (INR)
DPS (INR)
Book value/share (INR)
EPS growth adj. (%)
DPS growth (%)
EBITDA margin (%)
EBIT margin (%)
Net margin adj. (%)
Div. payout (%)
Net gearing (%)
ROE (%)
ROCE (%)
EV/sales (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
PBR (x)
PER adj. (x)
Dividend yield (%)
2013
8,144
1,260
700
332
443
692
11.18
1.00
162.23
18.8
-83.3
15.5
8.6
5.4
8.9
72.5
9.6
7.7
1.5
9.4
1.9
19.1
0.5
2014
13,512
2,154
1,210
491
561
153
13.63
2.50
97.13
21.9
150.0
15.9
9.0
4.1
18.3
118.4
10.8
9.9
1.8
11.3
4.8
33.6
0.5
2015E
16,620
2,817
1,745
947
900
769
21.89
3.00
115.51
60.6
20.0
16.9
10.5
5.4
13.7
96.8
20.6
15.3
1.7
9.9
4.8
25.1
0.5
2016E
19,713
3,449
2,370
1,638
1,229
1,272
29.88
3.50
141.30
36.5
16.7
17.5
12.0
6.2
11.7
69.9
23.3
20.1
1.4
7.9
3.9
18.4
0.6
Source: Company, Standard Chartered Research estimates
Share price performance
PVR
BSE SENSEX 30 INDEX (rebased)
700
500
300
May-13
Aug-13
Share price (%)
Ordinary shares
Relative to index
Relative to sector
Major shareholder
Free float
Average turnover (USD)
Nov-13
Feb-14
-1 mth
10
2
-
May-14
-3 mth -12 mth
3
61
-10
34
Promoters (31.9%)
37%
1,101,270
Source: Company, FactSet
Sumit Choudhary
Saurav Anand
+91 22 4205 5916
Equity Research
Standard Chartered Securities (India) Ltd
+91 22 4205 5910
Equity Research
Standard Chartered Securities (India) Ltd
Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix
All rights reserved. Standard Chartered Bank 2014
PVR L IN
INR 550.35
INR 630.00
http://research.standardchartered.com
Equity Research l PVR
Figure 1: PVR – Valuation changes
EBITDA – March 2016E
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV (INR mn)
New
Old
3,449
3,454
9.0x
9.0x
31,037
31,088
Less : Net debt FY14E (INR mn)
-5,342
-5,778
Equity value (INR mn)
25,694
25,310
Per share (INR)
630
620
Target PER – FY6E
21.7
24.2
Source: Company, Standard Chartered Research estimates
Figure 2: Estimate revisions
New
INR mn
No. of screens
Footfalls (mn)
Old
% change
FY14E A
FY15E
FY16E
FY15E
FY16E
421
481
531
488
538
FY15E
FY16E
-2.6%
60
70
79
70
78
ATP (INR)
170
176
184
180
189
-2.1%
SPH (INR)
50
56
60
55
60
0.6%
0.6%
13,588
16,620
19,713
16,835
19,879
-1.3%
-0.8%
0.0%
-0.2%
30.2%
15.8%
Revenue
EBITDA
EBITDA margin
PAT
2,230
2,817
3,449
2,816
3,454
16.4%
16.9%
17.5%
16.7%
17.4%
560
900
1,229
691
1,061
Source: Company, Standard Chartered Research estimates
Figure 3: 4QFY14 quarterly statement
Consolidated statement
No of properties
No of screens
Screens/ Property
No of seats
Seats/screen
Footfalls
Occupancy
Reported ATP
Net ATP
F&B
F&B/footfall
Advertisement + Royalty
Others
Total revenue
Film distribution cost
% of ticket sales
Total expenses
EBITDA
EBITDA %
Depreciation/Amortisation
EBIT
Finance cost
Exceptional items
PBT
Income tax
PAT before minority
1Q14
89
383
4.3
96,389
252
15
32.8%
169
134
742
49
313
97
3,373
-874
43.1%
-2,758
614
18.2
-182
432
-194
-41
197
-57
140
2Q14
92
398
4.3
97,398
245
17
37.5%
169
134
795
48
355
124
3,671
-923.9
41.5%
-2,910
761
20.7
-209
552
-210
-23
319
-42
277
3Q14
95
408
4.3
98,772
242
14
29.0%
175
137
731
51
420
91
3,394
-833
42.4%
-2,880
512
15.1
-209
305
-207
0
99
41
139
4Q14
97
421
4.3
101095
240
13.9
27.7%
160
126
712.8
56
329
106
3,164
-747
42.90%
-2,812
352
11.1
-344
8
-184
85
-91
40
-51
Source: Company, Standard Chartered Research
30 May 2014
2
Equity Research l PVR
Income statement (INR mn)
Year-end: Mar
Sales
Gross profit
SG&A
Other income
Other expenses
EBIT
Net interest
Associates
Other non-operational
Exceptional items
Pre-tax profit
Taxation
Minority interests
Exceptional items after tax
Net profit
Cash flow statement (INR mn)
2012
5,218
3,481
(2,600)
(365)
517
(185)
332
(57)
(22)
253
2013
8,144
5,433
(4,173)
(560)
700
(368)
332
124
(13)
443
2014
13,512
9,235
(7,081)
(944)
1,210
(719)
491
(19)
57
32
561
2015E
16,620
11,282
(8,465)
(1,072)
1,745
(797)
947
(47)
0
0
900
2016E
19,713
13,415
(9,967)
(1,078)
2,370
(732)
1,638
(410)
0
0
1,229
Net profit adj.
EBITDA
253
881
443
1,260
561
2,154
900
2,817
1,229
3,449
EPS (INR)
EPS adj. (INR)
DPS (INR)
Avg fully diluted shares (mn)
9.45
9.41
6.00
27
11.18
11.18
1.00
40
13.63
13.63
2.50
41
21.89
21.89
3.00
41
29.88
29.88
3.50
41
Year-end: Mar
Cash
Short-term investments
Accounts receivable
Inventory
Other current assets
Total current assets
2012
210
1
276
79
222
788
2013
732
0
0
108
810
1,649
2014
495
0
0
106
785
1,387
2015E
791
0
0
182
902
1,875
2016E
537
0
0
216
1,021
1,774
PP&E
Intangible assets
Associates and JVs
Other long-term assets
Total long-term assets
2,621
2,577
5,199
11,875
2,345
14,219
9,263
2,883
12,146
9,990
3,213
13,203
10,412
3,570
13,983
Total assets
5,987
15,868
13,533
15,078
15,757
Short-term debt
Accounts payable
Other current liabilities
Total current liabilities
2
495
759
1,255
0
1,022
1,409
2,431
0
1,611
923
2,534
0
1,594
1,730
3,324
0
1,890
2,052
3,943
Long-term debt
Convertible bonds
Deferred tax
Other long-term liabilities
Total long-term liabilities
1,736
106
59
1,901
6,014
0
141
6,156
6,134
0
101
6,235
6,134
0
101
6,235
5,134
0
101
5,235
Total liabilities
3,156
8,586
8,769
9,559
9,177
Shareholders’ funds
Minority interests
2,830
-
6,428
854
3,993
771
4,749
771
5,809
771
-
7,282
4,764
5,520
6,580
Total liabilities and equity
5,987
15,868
13,533
15,078
15,757
Net debt (cash)
Year-end shares (mn)
1,527
27
5,283
40
5,638
41
5,342
41
4,596
41
Balance sheet (INR mn)
Total equity
Year-end: Mar
EBIT
Depreciation & amortisation
Net interest
Tax paid
Changes in working capital
Others
Cash flow from operations
2012
517
365
(185)
(57)
(158)
4
486
2013
700
560
(368)
124
736
1,752
2014
1,210
944
(795)
(19)
129
1,469
2015E
1,745
1,072
(797)
(47)
597
2,569
2016E
2,370
1,078
(732)
(410)
466
2,772
Capex
Acquisitions & Investments
Disposals
Others
Cash flow from investing
(126)
(905)
(1,031)
(1,060)
(1,060)
(1,316)
(1,316)
(1,800)
(1,800)
(1,500)
(1,500)
Dividends
Issue of shares
Change in debt
Other financing cash flow
Cash flow from financing
(150)
361
(245)
(35)
(46)
0
(124)
(171)
(120)
0
(269)
(389)
(144)
0
(329)
(474)
(168)
(1,000)
(358)
(1,526)
Change in cash
Exchange rate effect
Free cash flow
(580)
0
360
521
692
(236)
153
296
769
(254)
1,272
2012
2013
2014
2015E
2016E
66.7
16.9
9.9
4.8
17.2
11.0
7,709.6
7,814.4
7,806.7
500.0
66.7
15.5
8.6
5.4
-37.3
56.1
75.2
18.4
18.8
-83.3
68.3
15.9
9.0
4.1
3.9
65.9
26.5
21.9
21.9
150.0
67.9
16.9
10.5
5.4
5.0
23.0
60.6
60.6
60.6
20.0
68.1
17.5
12.0
6.2
25.0
18.6
36.5
36.5
36.5
16.7
8.1
10.5
0.9
0.9
2.9
13.8
20.2
83.6
9.6
7.7
0.7
2.5
0.5
12.5
6.2
102.1
10.8
9.9
0.9
1.2
0.7
9.1
0.0
112.3
20.6
15.3
1.2
1.5
0.6
9.9
0.0
109.6
23.3
20.1
1.3
1.2
0.7
11.5
0.0
101.0
Leverage ratios
Net gearing (%)
Debt/capital (%)
Interest cover (x)
Debt/EBITDA (x)
Current ratio (x)
2.8
0.6
72.5
1.9
0.7
118.4
1.5
0.5
96.8
2.2
0.6
69.9
3.2
0.5
Valuation
EV/sales (x)
EV/EBITDA (x)
EV/EBIT (x)
PER (x)
PER adj. (x)
PBR (x)
Dividend yield (%)
0.8
4.9
8.4
13.0
13.1
1.4
4.9
1.5
9.4
16.9
19.1
19.1
1.9
0.5
1.8
11.3
20.1
33.6
33.6
4.8
0.5
1.7
9.9
16.0
25.1
25.1
4.8
0.5
1.4
7.9
11.5
18.4
18.4
3.9
0.6
Financial ratios and other
Year-end: Mar
Operating ratios
Gross margin (%)
EBITDA margin (%)
EBIT margin (%)
Net margin adj. (%)
Effective tax rate (%)
Sales growth (%)
Net income growth (%)
EPS growth (%)
EPS growth adj. (%)
DPS growth (%)
Efficiency ratios
ROE (%)
ROCE (%)
Asset turnover (x)
Op. cash/EBIT (x)
Depreciation/capex (x)
Inventory days
Accounts receivable days
Accounts payable days
Source: Company, Standard Chartered Research estimates
30 May 2014
3
Equity Research l PVR
Disclosures appendix
The information and opinions in this report were prepared by Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong) Limited, Standard Chartered Bank Singapore Branch, Standard
Chartered Securities (India) Limited, Standard Chartered Securities Korea Limited and/or one or more of its affiliates (together with its group of companies, ”SCB”)
and the research analyst(s) named in this report. THIS RESEARCH HAS NOT BEEN PRODUCED IN THE UNITED STATES.
Analyst Certification Disclosure: The research analyst or analysts responsible for the content of this research report certify that: (1) the views expressed and
attributed to the research analyst or analysts in the research report accurately reflect their personal opinion(s) about the subject securities and issuers and/or other
subject matter as appropriate; and (2) no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views
contained in this research report. On a general basis, the efficacy of recommendations is a factor in the performance appraisals of analysts.
Where “disclosure date” appears below, this means the day prior to the report date. All share prices quoted are the closing price for the business day prior to the
date of the report, unless otherwise stated.
Recommendation and price target history for PVR
INR
539.96
3
1
4
2
429.87
319.78
209.69
99.60
Jun-11
Date
1 24 Jul 13
Sep-11
Dec-11
Recommendation
OUTPERFORM
Mar-12
Price target
500.00
Jun-12
Date
3 3 Feb 14
Sep-12
Dec-12
Recommendation
IN-LINE
Mar-13
Jun-13
Price target
540.00
Sep-13
Date
Dec-13
Recommendation
4 20 May 14 OUTPERFORM
Mar-14
Jun-14
Price target
620.00
2 7 Oct 13
IN-LINE
560.00
Source: FactSet prices, SCB recommendations and price targets
Recommendation Distribution and Investment Banking Relationships
% of covered companies
currently assigned this rating
% of companies assigned this rating with which SCB has provided
investment banking services over the past 12 months
OUTPERFORM
54.4%
12.7%
IN-LINE
35.4%
11.5%
UNDERPERFORM
As of 31 March 2014
10.2%
7.7%
Research Recommendation
Terminology
OUTPERFORM (OP)
IN-LINE (IL)
UNDERPERFORM (UP)
Definitions
The total return on the security is expected to outperform the relevant market index by 5% or more over the next 12 months
The total return on the security is not expected to outperform or underperform the relevant market index by 5% or more over the next
12 months
The total return on the security is expected to underperform the relevant market index by 5% or more over the next 12 months
SCB uses an investment horizon of 12 months for its price targets.
Additional information, including disclosures, with respect to any securities referred to herein will be available upon request. Requests should be sent to
[email protected].
Global Disclaimer: Standard Chartered Bank and/or its affiliates ("SCB”) makes no representation or warranty of any kind, express, implied or statutory regarding
this document or any information contained or referred to in the document. The information in this document is provided for information purposes only. It does not
constitute any offer, recommendation or solicitation to any person to enter into any transaction or adopt any hedging, trading or investment strategy, nor does it
constitute any prediction of likely future movements in rates or prices or represent that any such future movements will not exceed those shown in any illustration.
The stated price of the securities mentioned herein, if any, is as of the date indicated and is not any representation that any transaction can be effected at this price.
While all reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document, no responsibility or liability is accepted for errors of fact or for any opinion expressed herein.
The contents of this document may not be suitable for all investors as it has not been prepared with regard to the specific investment objectives or financial situation
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this document are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. Our recommendations are under constant review. The value
and income of any of the securities or financial instruments mentioned in this document can fall as well as rise and an investor may get back less than invested.
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30 May 2014
4
Equity Research l PVR
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30 May 2014
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