DOCUMENT RESUME ED 277 011 CS 210 202 AUTHOR A

DOCUMENT RESUME
ED 277 011
AUTHOR
TITLE
PUB DATE
NOTE
CS 210 202
Lin, Carolyn
A Quantitative Analysis of Worldwide VCR
Penetration.
Aug 86 _
52p.; Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the
Association for Education in Journalism and Mass
Communication (69th, Norman, OK, August 3-6,
1986).
PUB TYPE
Reports - Research/Technical (143) -Speeches/Conference Papers (150)
EDRS PRICE
DESCRIPTORS
MF01/PC03 Plus Postage.
Developed Nations; Developing Nations; *Economic
Factors; Foreign Countries;_Hypothesis Testing; Mass
Media; *Media Research; *Ownership; Political
Attitudes; Predictive Measurement; *Predictor
Variables; Regression (Statistics); Statistical
Analysis; *Videotape Cassettes; *Videotape
Recorders
ABSTRACT
By examining relationships between a host_of national
policy, domestic economic, media system,_and media int astructure
factors, t Study assesses possible_predictors for videotape cassette
recorder (VCR) penetration across 63 countries. Overall statistical
results generated_through hypothesis testing indicated that these
factors were_relatively important predictors of VCR penetration in
industrialized and less industrialized countries. Specifically,
findings indicated-that (1) the level of gross national_product (GNP)
per capita provides the economic basis for VCR diffUsion;_(2)
-national TV systems with greater structural and_programing freedom,_
but without a multichannel environment, may encourage more rapid VCR
penetration; (3) the number_of TV sets_available to a population
correlates positively with the_level of VCR diffusion; (4) although
newspaper_circulation_and telephone penetration are significantly
relatod_to VCR penetration, these correlations are largely a functiOn
of GNP per capita; and (5) radio use and movie attendance are
relatively independent from the acquisition of_VCRs_because,VCR use
relies-more heavily on TV penetration_and its related variables.
Results suggested that VCRs may penetrate_TV households across
nations mord rapidly than any other electronic medium in the history
of telecommunications. (Appendixes list the low, medium, and high
income countries included in the study and provide extensive
statistical data.) (JD)
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CENTER (ERIC)
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C:1
LUc\I
A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF WORLDWIDE VCR PENETRATION
t4r
:Carolyn Lib
Department of Telecommunication
Michigan State University
East Lansing, MI 48824
"PERMISSION TO REPWIDUCE -THIS
MATERIAL HAS SEEN GRANTED SY
Carolyn Lin
TO THE EDUCATIONACRESOURCES
INFORMATION CENTER (ERIC)."
ABSTRACT
Recently,
product
video
cassette recorders have become a
in many nations around the world.
However,
for this global video boom are largely unknown.
popular
the reasons
There appear to
be
many potentially uneven factors associated with the diffusion
of
video
attempts
cassette
to
recorders
assess
the
worldwide.
relationship
The
between
current
all
study
these
of
potential factors and the penetration of video cassette recorders
across
sixty-three countries.
generated
national
media
through
policy,
The overall statistical
hypothesis testing suggest that a
domestic economic,
results
number
national media system
of
and
infrastructure factors are relatively important predictors
for the spread of video cassette recorders across
as well as less industrialized states.
industrialized
INTRODUCTION
Videocassette recorders (or VCRs) have,
very popular product in many countries
videocassette
viewing
recorder's
recently,
around
world;
the
ability to record programs
and replay p e-recorded programs
become a
for
movies,
(e.g.
A
later
how-to
tapes, etc.) at a viewer's convenience has altered the "temporal"
nature of traditional television viewing patt,arns.
not only enjoys the iiewing time flexibility,
The VCR owner
he or she al§b has
the access to a variety of program choice§ that are not available
1.
to h-on-VCR owners.
The
control"
technical
capability of a VCR to place
"viewing
the
heavily onto a viewer's' hand has caused some
economic,
2
social as well as political concerns worldwide.
a commercial television system,
For instance, in
time-shifting and home recording
of copyright materials may create a significant economic impact bn
the television and the film industry.
In a nation that has more
eigid social and political restraints on personal expression, the
invasion
of
Western
films
or
entertainment
material
(e.g.
pornography, politically sensitive material) to VCR households may
be regard as undesirable by authorities.
It is, therefore,
not
uncommon for nations to impose various restrictions on the import
or purchase of VCRs for different reasons.
TO
better
understand this booming global video phenomenon,
one may first consider it as a part of the electronic revolution
3
that
has
facilitated
the
progress of
the
information
age.
Moreover, VCR growth can also be attributed to the advancement in
telecommunications
access
to
and
technology.
As such,
both an
demand for various types of
individual's
information
data, entertainment, etc.) have been greatly increased.
unlike
(e.g.
However,
the penetration patterns of other kinds of telecommmunicatechnologies
tions
(which
generally
reach
the
industrialized
nations first and the non-industrialized nations much later), VCR
ownership diffuses among different nations around the world in
somewhat unpredictable fashion.
Ftot instance,
such
the penetration ratio in a "media rich" state
the United States (10.7%,
of Kuwait (92%,
1983) is
1983) or India (342%,
much lower than that
1983)-- the "media poor"
4
According to a survey done by
states.
Intermedia,
industrial-
ized nations don't necessarily have higher penetration rates than
5
nonindustrialized
the
violates
well
This
phenomenon
the traditional expectation that VCR
spread
first
states.
apparently
ownership
among industrialized nations that already
developed telecommunication infrastructure in place
should
have
a
before
reaching the less industrializ.2d states.
Qualitative generalizations and explanations for the problem
Of
"irregular"
thia
inaccurate
social
penetration
pattern
are
likely
existence of various uneven
because of th,-
to
political,
a d economic circumstances among individual nations.
iS highly possible that, while some
penetration-related
may
they
apply
ina equate
to
certain
nations,
in other cases.
are
found
be
It
factors
completely
In order to more precisely
analyze
this problem, the current study will empirically test a number of
hypotheses
to supplement qualitative explanations with a set
quantitative evidence.
5
LITERATURE REVIEW
irregularity
The
of VCR penetration patterns is
largely a function of national policy,
system
and
diScussion,
media infrastructure
domestic economy;
combined.
the
In
media
following
a host of factors gathered from the literature
serve as potential
may
probably
that
predictors for VCR penetration worldwide
will be individually reviewed.
Western Industrialized Nations
Among
both
the industrialized or economically developed
social science research and market research
have
otatev,
revealed
some of the underlying reasons fOr the diffUSiOn of VCRS.
The
uses
of
(i.e.,
United States
Based on
empirical
the VCR include time shifting,
recording
favorite
research,
video-library
movies or programs
for
major
building
"permanent"
6
collections) and prerecorded-tape viewing.
VCR prices have
been
identified as a major factor associated with the purchase decision.
Penetration
(twice
is
found to
highest among pay cable
subscribers
as likely to purchase a VCR than non-cable consumers
and
four times more likely to purchase than basic cable subscribers);
because these subscribers have additional opportunities for time7
ahifting and video-library recording.
Moreover,
it is reported
that nearly 75% of home recording among all VCR households is for
time shifting purposes;
56% of the VCR owners record movies at a
8
weekly
average of 3.3 hours.
across
the
With regard to
VCR
distribution
a study indicates that households
with
middle income and up ($20,000 and up) owned 87% of the VCRs
sold
population.
9
in 1982.
That figure increased to 90% in 1985.
3
Home
recording of movies or TV programs has raised
serious
10
concerns from the movie industry and
copyright
Time-shifting
and commercial skipping (i.e.,
during
commercials
producers.
TV
when viewers
replay) ha3 also deeply concerned TV
skip
adver-
11
pre-recorded
Although
tisers.
affected
attendance,
theatre
viewing
tape
major movie
somewhat
has
companies
also
who
supply the majority of the pre-recorded tapes may not necessarily
Suffer
They receive more royalties from video release
from it.
12
:
than from network and cable release.
titles available on tapes,
outlets (not including
department
prospect
With at least 6,000 movie
approximately 14,000 video
specialty
grocery, drugstore, convenience store and
store video stands) and economic rental service,
for
promising.
pre-recorded
On the whole,
.tape
sales
or
rental
VCR sales are projected to
the
one
is
of
experience
13
continuous solid growth as prices continue to decline.
European Nations
region
The picture of VCR penetration in
appears to be somewhat different from that of the
StateS.
this
Uhited
Several unique factors can be found intervening with the
distribution of VCRs;
For instance,
national wealth or GNP per
capita may reflect the rates of penetration.
trialized north,
In the urban indus-
VCR penetration is generally higher:
the United Kingdom,
18.5% in West Germany,
30.1%
in
20.5% in Norway, and
14
17% in Sweden.
In contrast, in the less industrialized south,
VCR penetration tends to be lower: 4.7% in Spain, 6% in Portugal,
15
and
2.4%
in
unequitable
example,
Nevertheless,
Greece.
circumstances
France
and
there
peculiar to certain
Austria
impose duties and
4
7
also
some
countries.
For
are
taxes
on
VCR
purchase and ownership;
Portugal,
Italy and denmark practice VCR
16
restrictions or qudtas.
import
These levies and
rrictions
have a net effect on raising VCR sales prices.
nations depending on exigencies such as a national
among
on
prices may affect the market growth unevenly
high
However,
VCR
costs,
evidence
policy
media infrastructure and media systems.
suggests
countries which can
that
matki!A
continuously
VCR costs may expect relatively rapid sales growth
their
Sweden,
lower
(a.g;,
Denmark and Italy) than those who are likely to
maintain
17
prices
high
(e.g.
Spain a d Belgium).
With regard to
media
infrastructure, the color TV pentration seems to be an important
Countries
contingent.
with a small color TV
as Spain (15%, _1982) ahd Italy (35%,
such
population
ratio
1982) lag behind
in
18
their VCR population.
In terms of media systems, the number of channels
available
to national TV systems help determine the VCR distribution trend.
More
affluent states with single channel or
such
as
because
increase
channels
Norway and Denmark have much higher penetration
rates
viewers tend to look for alternative program options
their
total
program
choice
states
with
apparently
(VCRs
help provide alternative program choices).
poorer
state-run
can
On the contrary,
limited programming such
as
to
the
Portugal
and
Greece, nevertheless, don't seem to react to the lack of multiPle
viewing
environments by rapidly increasing their
VCR
distribu-
19
tion,
On the other hand,
environments
(i.e.,
in nations with multichannel viewing
multiple TV channels,
satellite channels) such as the Netherlands,
VCR
penetration has shown steady increase.
5
cable
channels,
or
Sweden and Finland,
VCR users in
these
nations
are
heavily engaged in time-shifting as
well
pre-
as
20
tape viewing.
recorded
an exception is also
number of feature films in their daily schedules;
are ample opportunities for viewing movies
there
American movies) on TV all day long;
because
mostly
(i;e.,
As a result,
well developed software supply system in place;
large
Time-shifting
unnecessary
pre-recorded tape purchases almost seem
and
founcL
public and private channels combined provide a
Italy,
In
However,
there is
no
the VCR penetra-
21
tion rate is also relatively low.
The
marketing
situation in Italy reflects that a sound video software
system
is
closely related to
spread
the
needless to say the available movie titles on tapes.
of
VCRs;
In faCt,
gross number of pre-recorded tape sales have created serious
the
problems among European countries because most of the pre-
legal
recorded
instance,
tapes
nearly
in the video market
50
are
pirated
-copies.
percent of the circulating units
in
For
West
Germany are illegal. That percentage is 70 percent in the Nether22
lands and 75 percent in the United Kingdom.
These nations
are
currently developing more severe penalities against pirac5,.
In Europe,
in
relation
economic and legal issues concerning VCR growth
to the broadcasting industry are
from those facing the United States.
ing
rather
different
As many European broadcast-
systems are primarily either state-run or public service
market
nature,
them.
in
competition for TV products is not a threat for
Instead, softwace piracy problems that have given rise to
copyright complaints from the American film industry and national
policy
on
concerns.
the VCR importation are rega:-ded
as
more
prominent
Less Industrialized Nations
Among the less industrialized nations,
wealth"
the so-called
"newly industrializing" nations;
or
increasingly
have
become economically competitive with developed nations.
precisely
more
to
affect the
assess all the uneven
prediction
of
VCR
In order
situations
diffusion,
"oil=
these
may
that
nations
are
distinguished from those "typical" developing nations;
The Newly Indus rializing or Oil-Wealth Nations
nations
come
under the label of "newly
are--the Republic of China (or Taiwan),
Singapore; and Brazil;
Several
industrializing."
Hong Kong,
They
South Korea;
The "oil-wealth" nations are, namely; the
Arab states such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
These nations seem
to share the following characteristics--a thriving GNP per capitat_...;.6
a
rising middle class;
a trend toward urbanization and a rapid
93
-:
in TV penetration.
These economic and media structure
growth
factors
nations.
62
have
contributed
For example;
to
the diffusi-.on of
VCRs
those
in
Singapore has a VCR penetration ratio of
that figure is 20% in Taiwan;
24% in Hong Kong;
19,3%
in
24
SaUdi Arabia; 75% in Qatar and 92% in Kuwait (as of 1983);
Developing
nations,
these
To
the majority
impose
import controls or set
and ownership of VCRS;
Therefore, when
tariffs
their VCR prices
much
higher than those of developed nations.
many
consumers
developing
the
of
VCRs are considered as a luxury item.
nations
purchase
Nations
often
the
on
become
As a consequence;
try to smuggle VCRs across national
borders
or
25
purchase them through black markets
made VCR prices
These two activities have
an unstable factOr for penetration Prediation.
10
For instance, India (34;2%, 1983) and Sri Lanka (22.1%, 1983)
both have a relatively:.high penetration rate but their VCR pticeS
26
are very high as well.
One reason for this phenomenon is that
there there are many illegally owned VCR sets--either smuggled
purchase
from
black markets;
Moreover;
software piracy
or
also
appears to be a problem in many nations. The other explanation iS
that VCRs are primarily owned by a small group of wealthy
elites
27
who
This high degree of VCR
afford a TV set.
may
concentration i
reflected by a high VCR
in turn,
ownership
penetration
because penetration figures are normally assessed
tate;
through
calculating the total number of VCR sets belonging to per hundred
TV
households of a nation;
ownership among
VCR
the concentration of
high income classes in certain nations
been gradually declining.
been
Nevertheless,
haS
In Egypti Nigeria and India, VCRs have
acquired by the middle class population;
The lower income
28
population has also started to make demands.
VCR
penetration is thus apparently related to
overall
the
buying ability of a nation, which is best measured by the GNP per
29
capita.
wealthier countrie.s generally hal..e higher
rates than less wealthy nations.
However,
penetration
India and Sri Lanka,
with their exceptionally high degrees of VCR ownership concentration,
provide
two
contradicting examples.
nation's overall wealth level,
tion
is
In addition
concentration in income distribu-
also found to be associated with
VCR
penetration--the
higher the income concentration, the greater the VCR distribution
ratio.
For
phillipines
instance,
own a VCR,
27.4% of the total TV households in
its wealthiest 10%
whereas;
the
households
30
share
about
38;5%
of
its national
8-
11
household
income.
In
contrast,
among
Western European nations
the
have
that
the
lowest concentration ratios of income distribution--West Germany,
Norway
and
highest;
buying
Netherlands--VCR penetration
the
figures
are
the
contradiction is probably a result of the strong
This
ability iof large middle classes in
these
wealthy
very
31
Western nations.
There
are
two
exceptions where
concentration
of
distribution does not seem to predict VCR diffusion.
the
income
In Brazil,
VCR penetration is at 4.2% but 50.6% of its national
house-
hold income is shared by 10 percent of the wealthiest households.
32
Similar conditions were also identified in the case of
Mexico.
This conflict ng situation may be explained by the parallelism in
media structurc found among BTazili
Mexico and Italy.
All three
nations have a multichannel viewing environment, high VCR priceS,
and a relatively poor software marketing system, all of which may
contribute to slow-down in the diffusion of VCRs;
In spite of this,
certain nations with multiple TV channels
(i.e.,
generally
appear
to
have higher VCR penetration rates
22;9%)
as
compared to nations with single
viewing options
(
belonging
to a commercialized TV
system)
Venezuela,
(e.g.,
channel
dO
or
33
.g.) Indonesia, 15.6%; Iraq, 14.0%).
limited
However,
there
are very few nations with a multiple channel system (i;e;,
Latin
American
;
broadcasting
owned
and/Or
institutions
nations
by and large).
The
majority
systems among developing nations are either
state-operated
under
systems
or
government auspices--which
the
State-
public
serVice
usually
provide
34
very limited program choices or channel diversity.
9
of
The level of urbanization which directly reflects the living
standard of most elites of a nations may also be connected to VCR
diffusion.
Most elite populations in the developing world tend
to concentrate in urban areas.
better
access to modern living facilities such
electrical
appliances
modernized
or
sophisticated
them;
Urban dwelling provides theth With
electronic
and
Westernized
media.
life styles also
Moreover,
more
foster
more
he1 -1
for entertainment and
demands
electricity,
as
information
among
As such, VCRs appears to be a relatively desirable item to
own;
This point can be easily proven by examining countries that
have
large
urban populations such as Peru (66%)
(84%)--eaCh
has
a
Venezuela
and
VCR penetration ratios of 17.:%
and
22.9%,
35
respectively;
However,
in
comparison to
the
ildnstrialized
Western European states where urbanization is generally high, the
situation
The less urbanized nations such as
reverses.
Norway
36
(549)
is found to have the highest penetration rates.
This
is
peobably largely a result of the overall trend towards Suburbanization in many of the Western nations;
larger color TV populations in developed nations
While
Said
to be related to higher VCR penetration,
true
among
are
this is generally
the developing nations as well-- except that
black-
37
and-white
less,
sets
there
penetration
relatively
replace color sets as the
are
ratios
high.
t
o
exceptions.
India and
population.s
Sri
are very low but VCR penetration
This
contradiction
is
function of the high degree of VCR ownership
elite
measure.
in these nations;
probably,
NevertheLanka's
rates
again,
TV
are
a
concentration among
Socialist Nations
VCRs have
created
an unavoidable
dilemma
for
socialist
regimes in terms of national policy on home entertainment.
nations
hardware
of the spread of uncensored
afraid
are
use
and software may damage their domestic film
and ideological control over their citizens.
Most
video
of
industries
Although they have
-;
adopted severe sanctions against software piracy and blaCk-tarket
trade of software and hardware, these two illegal activities have
38
continued to flourish.
tb
deal
most nations have started
with the problems created by the video age
instead
bf
For instance, the Soviet Union a d Poland have
suppressing them.
begun
In response,
to manufacture their own VCR hardware and
software;
VCR
imports have been opened up. They have also monopolized the distribution of software to prevent the illegal diffusion of Western
films and TV programs.
However, VCRs have been priced at an ex-
pensive level compared to the average income of a typical citizen.
Regardless
hardware
Of the high prices and multiple resv.rictions
and software purchase,
people in the
world
socialist
desire a VCR as much if not more than people from elsewhere;
VCR
on
is viewed as a tool that may be used to provide both
The
enter-
state-run
tainment and information which is unavailable on their
40
TV
from
systems (especially Western films);
underground
reported
producing
Organizations
ranging
groups to the Catholic church have
also
videos to bypass their state's
monopoly
been
on
41
information;
in
these
penetration
Even though the demands for VCRs are very
socialist nations,
the relatively low income and
of TV sets among average households may mean a
growth for the VCR market;
high
low
slow
Overall issessment
It seems that for each potential VCR-penetration predictor,
there may be one or two unpredictable anomolies. These situations
are
usually caused by certain unique social or economic circums-
tances explainable through qualitative generalizations;
In
sum,
the major potential predictors for VCR penetration worldwide are:
(1)
national policy factors--price and import
restriction,
(2)
domestic ,!conomic factors--GNP per capita, concentration ratio of
distribution;
income
and urbanization ratio,
factor--national TV system,
and
the nuMber of TV channels
media infrastructure--TV penetration ratio
(4)
attendance frequency.
Available
movie-
and
The contingent predictors for some nations
the extent of hardware smuggling,
are:
(3) media system
black-market trade,
and
""-716
Software piracy.
Media infrastructure factors are generally interrelated with
each other.
the
The spread of one type of mass medium may facilitate
diffusion
of other mass media,
social circimstances permit.
in media use increases;
tion
provided that economic
and
As such, when audience sophisticathe media infrastructure may
also
42
become
more diversified,
additional
media
and vice versa.
infrastructure
Therefore,
factors that
may
several
precede
the
adoption of VCRs will be elaborated herein
Mass
mediausually diffuse across societies in
certain
a
43
general pattern.
has
been
For instance,
extensively
nations,and
radio, with its low cost,
distributed among
better
developed
relatively well diffused among the less
developed
the
44
nations.
Newspaper
circulation,
an indicator of the
culture and literacy level of a nation,
generally expands
reading
after
and movie culture has been in place.
radio
Chtet8
But it only
45
the elite populations in the developing World.
around
telephones
may,
as part of the measure for the
electronic-media
national
LaStlk,
development
of
infrastructure (not a mass medium
in
nature),_ prevail either before or after
TV and VCR sets enter a
46
They generally concentrate within the elite
society.
segments
developing nations but are distributed among different classes
in
in better developed nations at varying degrees.
The grOWth of VCR diffUSion iS related tO the soundness of a
media infrastructure;
structure
whereas; the development of a media infra-
is largely dependent upon the nature of
media system.
national
its
In general, the world media systems can be classi47
fied according to the four theories of the press
--totalitarian;
authoritarian, social responsibility and libertarian--and a fifth
48
theory of the press, tutelary theory.
of
media
freedom--with
system,
constitute
systems
libertarian
the
followed
a
These five general types
continuum
system
being
by social responsibility,
relative
of
most
the
tutelary
system
"free"
(i.e.,
system commonly exists in certain newly democratized states
a
dominating
party that led the revolutionary victory over
previous dictatorship),_ authoritarian and totalitarian
a
with
the
system,
49
in a descending order.
A libertarian media system generally allows the
development
of media structure and content with very little constraints
the authority.
state
with
in
Publid
ThiS type of system only exists in a capitalistic
well established democratic tradition
United States.
from
such
as
the
A social responsibility system, with its emphasis
ServiCe,
tend4
to reStriCt Certain
Strudtural
and
programming
nations
freedoms of the mcdia (e.g;,
and
their previous colonies)
most Western
European
certain
fulfilling
for
50
or educational purposes.
social
A tutelary system,
With it§
principle of keeping the media from being too critical about
government policy,
often places "self-regulating guidelines" for
media structures are relatively fre0
Despite of this,
them;
evolve as market opportunities emerge.
commercialized
often
the
and
belong
to
Systems of this kind are
the
to
"democratic"
newly
51
(eg,
regimes
Taiwan
as well as Mexico and most
other
Latin
52
American nations).
An authoritarian system,
military governments or
dictatorship
Argentina,
Chile,
(e;g.,
Saudi Arabia); is relatively stringent in its tolerance
Algeria;
Of
best exemplified by nations with
peliticallY or socially damaging media content or
structural
53
development.
Nevertheless,
privately owned or state-run;
With
itS
belief
ih
u§ing
the media systems can
Finally,
mediA
either
system,
a ti$talitarian
StrUttUre
and
communicate national policy and party propaganda,
be
content
has little
if
any system freedom at all. All communist states operate this type
54
of state-owned and -ccntrolled media system.
To
summarizei
nations
with a media system of
diversified
content, multichannel capacity and sound infrastructure are likely
to encourage rapid VCR growth.
those
likely
system
to
On the other hand, nations without
and infrastructure characteristics are
acquire VCRs to increase the:.r
viewing
even
more
options,
if
55
their political and economic conditions permit.
most
In fact,
media systems in the world don't have diVerSified
multichannel capacity or sound infrastructures.
most
content,
The
tradition of mass media research has always treated the
media
as the cause for social changes
media
growth
and development should be
whereas
development,
or
a
process.
reciprocal
Literature has indicated that VCR uses are primarily intended for
entertainment purposes, and no government has yet coordinated VCR
_
diffusion
into national development plans.
when
This suggests
there is a relatively new medium such as the VCR, the examination
media penetration factors should probably precede development
of
However,
effects.
VCR
penetration,
gathering
worldwide
the lack of a full-scale study on
the
youth
of the medium and the
problem
reliable statistics on VCR sales and prices have
such a task relatively difficult.
made
Bearing these caveats in mind,
the current study will be exploratory in nature.
Nevertheless, a
thorough examination of all the possible VCR-penetration
will
of
be conducted to assess the Causal relevanCe of each
factors
factor
in relation to VCR penetration;
HYPOTHESES
Twelve
main hypotheses and two subhypotheses were generated
These hypotheses are described
based on the literature review.
aa f011ows.
:
H2
:
H3
:
H4
H5
:
:
Lower VCR prices will be positively Correlated with VCR
penetration;
The level of import control will be negatively correlated
With VCR penetrAtion.
National GNP per capita will be positively correlated
with VCR penetration;
Urbanization ratio will be positively correlated with VCR
penetration.
Among low income statesi higher concentration for income
distribution will be positively correlated with VCR
penetration.
15
18
H5a: Among middle income states, greater concentration for
income distribution will be negatively correlated with
VCR penetration.
H5b: Among high income states, larger concentration_for
income distribution will be negatively correlated with
VCR penetration;
_
H6
:
H7
:
H8
H9
:
:
The degree of national TV system freedom will be positively correlated with VCR penetration.
The capacity of TV channel repertoire will be negatively
correlated with VCR penetration;
TV penetration will be positively correlated with VCR
VCR penetration.
Radio penetration will be positively correlated with
VCR penetration.
Newspaper circulation will be positively correlated with
VCR penetration.
H10:
Hll: Movie attendance frequency will be negatively cOrrelated
With VCR penetration.
H12: Telephone penetration will be positively correlated with
VCR penetration.
METHODS
Data Selection
Sixty-three nations were studied (see Appendix 1). PenetratiOn data for All nations (except for Bahrain) were obtained from
the
South
report
of an Intermedia survey.
Bahrain was
replaced
Korea due to insufficient information on other
;Various sources were used to compile
different types of
tion
and economic indices,
indicators;
These sources include:
World D:tve1o2ment Re2ort
Year Book,
South
Korea
and media system and
and the UNESCO Statistical
_;
penetra-
infrastructure
the
V Handbook, the Euro2a
Hook. In addition, two
and Puerto Rico nationals wel,
-;
predictors;
the EIU Special Report;
the World Rao
by
ilso interviewed
gather certain statiatics unobtainable from OubliShed SourceS.
to
56
11b
Measurement
Fourteen penetration factors or variables wart tested.
Each
of them will be individually defined below.
VCR
Penetration Ratio,
measured by the number of VCR
sets
owned by per 1,000 inhabitants of a population, represents a much
more
precise estimate of VCR diffusiot across a nation's popula-
tion
than that measured by using total TV
households.
The
latter measure, highly biased by concentration of VCR penetration
among many developing nations,
purpose
of this study.
is considered unsuitable for
Finally,
the
although the penetration
data
were recorded based on governments' import and export statistics,
manufacturer records,
the
trade information, and news media reports,
actual penetration rates -for certain nations might have been
underestimated.
The
reason is that the unknown
Statistics
of
57
illegally-owned VCR sets may not be included.
VCR Price may reflect the affordatiility of a VCR. If a range
53
prices
is obtained,
IMRort Control,
controls
study)
related
according
different levels.
licensing
VCR
the average of the
two
is
adopted.
defined through grouping the various types of
to VCR imports (adopted
to
the degree of
from
restraint,
the
Intermedia
contains
The least stringent level of control
three
involves
VCR ownership and/or taxing VCR purchase to raise
prices.
The
medium
level of control
mechanisms
Setting up VCR import quotas to limit the number of VCR
the
.
Include
imports.
The most restrained level of control comprises of the combination
59
of control devices from the other two levels and/or import baits.
GNP Per CaRita,
the general measure of the overall
national
60
wealth, may reflect a nation's general VCR-purchase ability.
Urbanization Rati
is also considered to be an indicator of the proportion
nationi
of
the percentage of urban population of a
,
population
the
that
may_have
access
electricity
to
or
61
electronic media such as VCRS.
Concentration for Income Distribution,
national
is a measure of
income is distributed among the higher income
a nation's distribution of total household income
If
concentrated
percentage
among
the
elitesi
it
is indicated
On
the
diStributiOn
iS
h ghly cohoehtrated among the
upper-middle
class,
whole,
the
highly
iS
by
if national
other hand;
large
a
is
it
income
household-income
elites
reflected by a high
a d
the
percentage
income controlled by the top twentieth percentile of
On
classes:
of income held by the top tenth percentile of
households.
how
of
hous-holds.
the degree of income distribution equality in
A
population may reveal how a relatively expensive item such as t
e
62
VCR may effect the market across that population.
Income
categories
different
GNP
Category,
defined
developed
in the World development
Income
reclassifying
Report,
The Low Income Category includes
"low income economies" and
Income
economies"
on
and
Category
Category
national
nations
"lower middle income economies."
combines
nations
from
"upper
"East European nonmarket economies."
contains nations within the
"high
the
three
has
levels (determined according to the level of
per capita).
Middle
based
ih
The
middle
The
income
High
oil
63
exporters" group and "industrial market economies."
TV
System,
structural
determined
according to the relative
and programming freedom,
includes three
degree
Of
distinctive
levels of systems (defined through rearranging the six categories
18
21
adopted
UNESCO statistical Yearbook).
from the
government-owned
commercial
system,
or
a
public
and/or mixed system (i.e.,
Nations
service
with
system,
or
a
a
a nation with two or more
different systems) are considered to have the lowest, the medium,
64
or the highest degree
system freedom, respectively.
of
TV Channel Repertoire, represented by the number of TV channels
available to a national TV system, is an index of channel
content
Presumably,
diversity.
and/or
a system with more TV channels
may have more diversified program content.
However,
the degree
of diversity is largely a function of the level of relative media
65
structural a d content freedom of a national TV system.
TV-Penetration Rati
per
1,000
people
measured by the number of TV sets owned
,
a population,
of
indicates
degree_ of
the
66
diffusion for the electronic video/mass cultvIre in a nation.
Ra±o-Penetration Rati
,
assessed by the number of radio sets
owned per 1,000 persons of a population, reveals the diStribution
67
of the most fundamental form of media culture in a nation.
Newspaper-Circulation Ratio, estimated by the circulation per
1,000 individuals of a population,
depicts the cxtnt Of reading
6C
culture relative to mass media consumption in a natien.
Movie-Attendance
dance
Freguencyi
reflected by the annual
per resident of a population,
atten-
suggests the popularity
ot
69
theattre-going and the spread of film culture in a nation.
Telephone-Penetration
telephone
illustrates
sets
one
owned
Ratio,
represented
per 1,000 inhabitant
by tue number
of
a
population,
dimension of a nation's overall development
ifi
electronic media infrastructure and its progress in modernization
70
and urbanization.
Data Analysis
All of the data 7ere statistically
in
analyzed.
Specifically,
order to demonstrate the relationship between VCR penetration
all predictor variables,
and
correlation
coefficients
across all nations and for nations within
calqulated
were
Pearson
each
Correlation coefficients
independent income category separately;
were also computed to explain the interrelationship among all the
Media infraastructure factors (i.e.,
newspaper
and movie attendance frequency)
as a whole as well as for nations within
nat:kons
income
circulation
telephone, and
radio,
TV,
The averages of VCR,
level.
penetration
newspaper
ratio,
all
for
separate
each
radio- and telephone
TV-,
circulation
ratio,
and
Movie=
attendance frequency were tabulated for all nations combined
for
within
nations
different
each
income
and
classification
to
present the relative degrees of penetration among different media.
theoretically
Lastly,
factors
were
chosen
for
multiple
a
significant
statistically
and/or
regression
analysis
to
interpret the causal relationship between VCR penetration and all
relevant
predictors.
regression
model
Significance
regression
were
should
be
the
relative
constructed
pertaining
for
to
However,
each of
the
three
into
to
separate
obtain
income
all three income categories combined
categorieS
because
not enough number of nations in each category to
three valid individual regreaSiOn models.
20
three
penetration
one overallregression model
only
the
theoretical
three
Ideally,
sets of causality results to explain the
independently.
tested
predictor.
each
entry
of variable
determined by
was
models
individual
patterns
bf
order
The
was
there
formulate
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Statistical results for each hypothesis will be discussed in
factor groups of national policy, domestic economic, media system
The statistical significance level for
and media infrastructure.
all
tests
Results on the correlations
is p<;05.
among
averages of all the penetration
infrastructure factors,
media
ratios,
ahd a regression test will also be Interpreted herein. (Appendix 2)
National Policy Factors
Nations with higher VCR prices ate found
Hypothesis 1
have lower VCR penetration rates across the population.
the
However,
correlation -.20 is not statistically significant in support
hypothesis one;
of
to
categories,
it
(Table 1)
With regard to the three
discovered'that among high
was
income
income
states,
higher prices do affect the penetration rates
middle
income
states
(r.-.03) and low income
For the
states
t..=;28);
prices seem to have little or insignificant effects on VCR
sales
result may contain statistical bias because of the
sthall
(these
number of valid cases in these two income categories).
Overall,
the
results
generally suggest that the VCR ptice
iS a factor with different levels cf importance
For more affluent natilns,
growth
bOth
(Table 2)
across
nations.
lower prices contribute to more rapid
bf VCR sales because upper as well as middle classes
the major consumers.
On the other hand,
in less
are
wealthk
middle-income and low-income nations, prices are not as important
a
consideration because the rich elites can afford high
priceg.
Further verification on this hypothesis using a greater number of
nations in each income category will be needed.
Hypothesis 2
The level of VCR import control seems to be
irrelevant to VCR penetration (r=.08).
(correlations
for
The rejects hypothesis
three income categories
the
2
not
calculated
because of very small case numbers in two categories.
(Table 2)
Nevertheless,
has provided three revealing
result
this
facts.
FirSt, taxing and licensing VCR ownership does not prevent people
from legally or illegally owning VCR
are
intended
not
Second, VCR import quotas
for limiting the VCR
supplies
(adopted
for
limiting the Japanese imports instead) to affect regular demandS.
Finally,
taxes,
restrain
the
-;
and import quotas combined will
licenses,
demand
for
legal or
VCRs;
illegal
not
means
will
71
continue to be adopted for acquiring VCRs.
Domestie Economic Factors
Hypothesis
significantly
associated
with
greater GNP per capita
higher
This supports hypothesis.
(r=.48).
income
As predicted,
3
VCR
penetration
(Table i)
rates
Among
GNP per capita does contribute to the spread
states,
is
of
VCRs (r=.51), whereas, for the middle-income nations (r=.005) and
low-income
group
(r=-.10),
GNP
irrelevant to VCR penetration.
per
(Table 2)
capita
appears
to
be
Comparing these find-
ings with those obtained in hypothesis 1, a relatively consistent
penetration pattern among nations from these three income
can
be found.
national
For the economically developed nations,
wealth well reflect the buying ability of
middle and upper-middle classes,
penetration.
national
wealth
However,
neither
for
groups
because
their
large
it also determines the level of
the less developed nations,
reflects
the buying
elites, nor does it predict VCR penetration well.
ability
while
of
the
Hypothesis 4
Urbanization ratio apprears to be
to VCR penetration (r=.06).
Among the
irrelvant
This rejects Hypothesi_s 4.
(Table 1)
nations from three wealth levels, less ur.,anized high-
income states have higher
VCR penetration rates (r=-.16, p.05),
suggesting that the major VCR owners are suburban middle
classes
By comparison, more urbanized middle-income (r=.20,
and elites.
p>!.05) and low-income states (r=.56, p<.05) tend to have greater
penetration
ratios.
(Table 2)
These results reveal that among
the middle-income states, the elites, middle class (the major VCR
owners) and certain number of the poor all reside in the
urbanization
thus,
ratio is not well related to VCR
cities;
diffusion.
On the other hand, in the low-income states, urbanized elites are
indeed the major VCR owners. Based on these results, urbanization
may still be a faily important factor because it may reflect
extent
the
to which how much modernization could affect the adoption
of electronic media among many less industrialized nations.
Hypothesis 5
income
of
the top 10% and 20%
households' shares of national household incline
penetration
r=.71,
Among low-income states,
are
highly
respectively).
income
correlated with each other
and
VCR
(r=.80
and
This suggests that greater concentration
distribution in a poor nation may
degree of VCR diffusion among elites.
predict
a
higher
However, the result could
be somewhat biased because the number of nations analyzed is
too
sman to generate reliable coefficients. Thus, this hypothesis is
supported with reservations.
Hypothesis 5a
tions
between
VCR
(Table 2)
Among middle-income states,
penetration and the top 10% and
the
20%
households' shares of national household income are -.22
correlaincome
(0.05)
and -.19 (p>.05),
in that order.
Again, biases might have been
introduced to the results because of the small number of
included in the analysis,
cautions. (Tabel 2)
penetration
tion
Thus, this hypothesis is rejected with
nevertheless, the finding does imply that VCR
may experience greater increases if income distribu-
less concentrated among the t p elites and
is
nations
upper-
the
middle class, and better distributed across the population.
Hypothesis 5b
Among the high-income states,
the top 10%
and 20% income households' shares of national household income are
negatively
and
insignificantly associated with VCR
(r.--.31 and -.26i
against
respectively).
penetration
But cautions should be raised
the reliability of the result because
the
number
of
nations analyzed is relatively small. AS such, this hypothesia iS
rejected
with certain reservations.
general sense,
distributed
(Table 2)
However,
in
the result reveals that nations with more
wealth
(or larger middle classes and
a
evenly
smaller
poor
populations) may have higher levelS of VCR distribution.
Media System Factors
Hy2othesis
largely
irrelevant
hypothesis 6.
The capacity of TV channel repertoire
6
to VCR penetration
(Table 1)
(r=.08).
This
iS
rejects
However, the insignificant correlation
is
caused by the intervention of the strong correlations between
TV
channel repertoire and concentration in
income
distribution
(top 10% and top 20%)--that deflated the value of the correlation.
Among the three income levels,
also
apply;
the
high-, middle-,
similarly nonsignificant
correlations are -.03,
.25 a d .001
and low-income states, repectively.
resultt
for
the
(Table 2)
Hypothes-is 7
TV sySteMS With greater degrees of
freedom
do indicate higher VCR penetration ratios (r=.26). This
hypothesis 7.
aOrrelatiOn
(r=.22),
(r=.28,
(Table 1)
not
is
significant for
somewhat
but
For the three income
the
supports
categories, the
middle-income
states
high-income
states
significant for the
0.10) and LoW-indoMe statei (r=.37i
p<;07).
(Table 2)
Based on the literature and the coding method of this study, most
high-income
nations do have less restrained media
systems
than
Middle-income nations (mainlY neWly democratized states or socialist regimes) that allow more rapid VCR diffusion.
inCaie
niiiOni,
freedom
Among the /ow-
many systems have fairly compartble
levels
compared to the Wetteth systems that they are
of
patterned
after, and thus alSo permit more flexible market growth of VCRs.
Media Infrastructure Factors
Hypothesis 8
--;
significantly
TV penetration is found to be positively and
aSsociated with VCR
hypothesis 8 is supported.
penetration
(r=.26)
Thus,
(Table 1)
However, a similar result
only holds for the low-income states,
Which Show dh .86 correla-
tion, whereas, foe the Middle-income and high-income states, that
correlation
results
is -.10 and .20,
respectively.
(Table 2)
imply that if TV penetration ihtreaded ambhg
the
These
major
VCR users from the low-income States (the elites) and the middleincome states (tie middle and upper classes),
also
VCR diffusion may
increaie as long as national wealth permits.
hand,
On the
other
Widle TV Oehetratien inareases in a high-income state,
spreads
buyers).
among
the
lower
classes instead (not
the
this may have dentribUted to the adverse
between the TV and VCR penetration ratio.
25
28
Majdt
it
VOI4
correlation
Hypothesis
The correlation between radio
9
and VCR diffusion is not a significant one (r=.12).
hypothesis 9.
that
(Table
1)
tion
This rejects
Among the three income
correlation is .75, -.09 and -.16 for the low-
and high-income states,
the
for
primarily
respectively.
low-income states may
spread
penetration
categories,
middle-
,
The significant correlamean
that
probably
VCRS
among nations that have a high level of
diffusion because those nations also have the ability to
certain
a
radio
acquire
level of TV and VCR penetration (the corre,ation between
radio and TV penetration ratios is .93).
tions
,
The negative
correla-
for the middle- and high-income states seem to imply
strong
VCR-buying
penetration
nations
than
already
ability is probably more relevant
either
TV or radio
diffusion
that
to
because
VCR
these
have very high levels of radio penetration
and
relatively strong TV penetration as well.
Hypothesis 10
Nations with greater newspaper circulations
appear to have higher VCR penetration rates (r=.25).
supports hypothesis 10.
tion
appears
correlations
(Table I)
This result
newspaper circula-
However,
to be a faily insignificant factor atter its
with
GNP per capita and concentration
distribution were partialed out.
high
income
for
The correlation results for the
three income categories seem to have reflected this point.
Among
the low-income states, the correlation between newspaper circulation a d VCR penetration is .67.
That correlation for the middle-
income states is .10, and -.04 for the high-income states. (Table
2)
These findings imply that newspaper is
indicator
a
relatively
because it is almost very insignificant to the
of VCR distribution among middle- and high income states.
26
p
weak
growht
Hypothesis
Although movie-attendance
11
frequency
is
negatively associated with VCR penetration, the correlation is a
non-significant one,
11. (Table 1)
however (r=-.10).
This rejects hypothesis
insignificant correlations were also obtained foe
nations from all three income categories (r=-.05, r=-.14, r=-.11).
However, these results should be interpreted with care
(Table 2)
because the number of nations from each income category
ill the analysis is small.
together
the
decrease
intlUded
On the whole* the findings weakly link
in movie-attendance frequency
with
the
increase of VCR distribution.
Hypothesis 12
ratios
income
have higher VCR
also
supports
Nations with greater telephone penetration
hypothesis
categories,
penetration
12.
the
penetration
(Table 1)
rates
=.59).
(
With regard to
for the'high-income (r=.27),
three
the
correlations between VCR and
This
telephone
middle-income
(r=.38)
and low-income states (r=.37) are, nevertheless, not significant;
However, these results should be examined with reser-
(Table 2)
-.
vations
because
the small number of nations
analyzed
in
each
_
income category may create statistical biases to inflate the test
significance;
Moreover;
the correlation between telephone
and
VCR
penetration ratios significantly decreases if GNP per capita
was
partialed out highly correlated with
ratio).
with
penetration
This finding helps explain why some less wealthy nations
greater
VCR diffusion don't always have
penetration (e.g.,
higher
telephone
telephone
Hong Kong),
whereas,
higher
tolephone
wealthier nations with
diffusion don't necessarily have
greater
VCR
72
penetration
(e.g.,
Telephone penetration ratio,
the U.S.).
thus, should probably be considered as an unstable factor.
27
30
Additional Resuits
intercorrelations among media
The
indicate that
except for movie-attendance frequency,
tactors (newspaper circulation,
tion ratios) are highly
that
infrastructure
i
factors
radio, TV and telephone penetra-
ntercorrelated. (Table 3)
This suggests
the growth of one medium may ehhance the spread of
except that the popularity of movie-going is
medium;
other
all
another
relatively
independent from the development of a media infrastructure.
terms of the three income
Ih
frequency
other
categories,
movie-attendance
again is not significantly associated with any of
factors in all three categories.
income states*
(Table 4)
For the high-
except for newspaper circulation, the other three
factors are significantly correlated with each other.
circulation
media
probably
infrastructure,
culture.
Newspaper
not only depends on the soundness
but also relies on a
of
prevailing
the
reading
Among the middle-income states, only radio penetration
is significantly correlated with all other factors.
among the other three factors fail to reach
implies
the
Correlations
significance.
Thia
that the distribution of radios may affect the diffusion
of television,
newspapers and telephones.
However, penetration
growth among television, newspapers and telephones probably won't
strongly affect each other.
Lastly,
newspaper
radio and telephone penetration are
circulation,
TV,
all significantly correlated.
that for poor nations,
These findings strongly
increases
i
ndicate
the development of one medium may heavily
influence the spread of another medium.
probably
for the low-income states,
As such, radio diffusion
and arrives before the growth
of
newspaper
circulation, television ownership and telephone use in that order.
28
The estimated averages of VCR penetration ratios along
with
media infrastructure factors across all nations and for the three
income categories are in Table 5.
is
that
bleae
According to the results,
the high-income nations
heavily
outnumber
it
the
middle-income and low-income nations in every category except for
movie-attendance frequency.
wealthy
This seems to suggest that people of
nations don't really rely movie-going for
tainment
the middle-income nations also show much higher levels
of use media use than the low-income nations.
their media
the
enter-
because their may be able to afford other alternatives.
Moreover;
the
media
i
This implies that
nfrastructures are much more complete than those
low-income
nstions.
On the whole,
results
the
of
have
presented a picture revealing .considerable gaps in the develpment
of
media
infrastructures
and
VCR
penetration
between
rates
nations from three different income categories.
Regresslon Model
Based
included
on the above discussion, regarding the
the regression model;
in
attendance
whereas,
frequency
not
relevant
control
to
VCR
a d
Moreover,
movie-
penetration,
0
price and newspaper cicrulation appear to
VCR
indicator.
are
import
variables not
be weak
concentration for income distribution and
telephone penetration ratio are both fairly unstable factord.
The first two factors chosen to be in the regression
urbanization
factors),
wealth
ratio
are
and
GNP per capita (two
domestic
both important indicators for a nation's
model,
economic
overall
and modernization--the two general preconditions for
diffusion.
VCR
The next two factors selected to enter the model, TV
system and TV channel repertoire (media system factors) determine
relative
the
channel and program diversity which, in turn, help
shape the environment for VCR penetration.
to
enter the equation,
infrastructure
nation's
basic
and radio penetration
TV
factors)*
The two last factors
may
electronic
reflect
media
the
structure
ratio
(media
development
of
ultimately
that
facilities the potential VCR diffusion.
overall regression results indicate that signifitant R-
The
square values are produced at each of the three entry steps,
the the total variance explained by the model is .37.
and
(Table 6)
Urbanization ratio fails to explain a significant amount
total
the
With
variance (B=-.21) because of its strong
GNP per capita (r=.41),
ratio (r=.49).
highly
TV (r=.53) and
of
correlations
radio
penetration_
After controlling for the effects of thsoe three
correlated variables,
urbanization ratio apprears to
be
negatively and highly insignificatnly correlated with VCR penetraThis further supports the findings of hypothesis 4,
tion.
suggests
that
urbanization
is not strongly indicative
which
of
VCR
diffusion and produces bidirectional correlations among different
income
categories.
significant
level
On the other hand*
.63 beta weight,
GNP per capita,
indicates that a
with a
nation's
wealth
may reflect its citizens' buying ability which in turn
is
attributable to VCR penetration.
beta
The
significant
systems
weight
(B=.36).
containing
produced by TV
This
system
is
demonstrates that nations
TV
with
ahd
TV
greater levels of structural and programming
freedom may also allow more rapid VCR penetration.
token,
positive
channel repertoire,
with a negative and
30
33
By the
same
significant
bet& weight (B=-.31,
diversified channel
p<.02)0 reveals that TV systems with a less
environment may facilitate VCR penetration.
TV peretratlon ratio, associated with a non-significant beta
f .210 is short on its ability to explain a substantial amont of
the
total
between
TV
capita
Judging
variance.
from the
partical
and VCR penetration rations controlling for GNP
per
and TV system (highy correlated with TV Penetration ratio
at r=.44 and r=.33,
the relevance of TV penetra-
respectivel.y)i
ratio as an iindicator slightly decreased.
tion
correlations
explains
This
the reason why an insignificant beta weight was obtained.
Lastly,
by radio
the negative beta weight (B=-.34, p.000) generated
penetration
ratio is a result of its
with GNP per capita and TV penetration ratio.
ing
out
correlation
partial-
Through
those two highly correlated variables,
penetration
radio
ratios became negatively correlated.
and
nations (in comparison to other media)0
phenomenon
nations
is readily observable among some
have lower radio penetration but much
that
across
radio penetration is not
good indicator for the growth of VCR distribution.
this
VCR
reveals
This
because of the rather extensive diffusion of radios
that
6
strong
Moreover,
less
wealthy
higher
VCR
diffusion (e.g., Hong Kong), whereas, some wealthier nations have
extremely
high
radio
diffusion
but
much
more
moderate
VCR
73
penetration (e.g., the U.S.).
Overall,
is
the
That
is
freedom
toire,
the
regression model suggests ':.hat GNP per capita
most important factor associated with
followed
by the relative
of a TV systems,
VCR
structural
and
penetration.
programming
the diversity of the TV channel reper-
and TV penetration ratio.
31
Further,
4
urbanization ratio,
though
indicator of development and
an
strongly relevent to VCR diffusion.
highly
modernization,
because
not
radio is not a
Similarily,
precitive factor for VCR penetration.
is
This is
probably
VCR use requires access to a TV instead cf a radio
set;
even if many radio owners (in poor or wealthy nations) may afford
a
they are not necessarily capable of acquiring a
TV Set,
In
it is clear that accounted for by the model was heavilY
sum,
reduced
due
to Ale strong intercorrelations among some
probably
predictors.
Moreover,
relationship
existing between VCR penetration and the
variables.
cal
VCR.
is
the
curvilinear
a
predictor
This implies the need for adopting two more statisti-
techniques--a
facilitate
there
of
trend
analysis
and
a
further examination of the causal
analysis--to
path
relations
between
VCR penetration and its relevant predictors.
CONCLUSION
provided
The Overall results generated from this study have
relatively
revealing
information for
interpreting
theoretical
assumptions discussed herein. Specifically, the level of national
GNP
per
capita provides the economic basis for
VCR
diffusion.
National TV systems with greater structural and programming freedome
but without a multichannel environment may
rapid VCR penetration.
encourage
more
Moreover, the number of TV sets available
to a population also helps determine the level of VCR diffusion.
The
with
of
failure for VCR prices to have a
significant
VCR diffusion is probably a result of insufficient
VCR prices from the middle- and low-income nations.
condition is also found in the case of another
32
relation
records
Sikilar
variable--concen-
for income distribution.
teatioh
been gathr,red for these
had
data
reliable explanation.
have
suggesting
provide a
more
Further, the variable import control
does
different
that
with
correlation
noticeable
a
eignificart
predictors,
two
results could have been attained to
statistical
not
if more complete
Presumably)
of import
levels
penetration,
VCR
control re
hat
Instead; they are primarily
intended to curb the spread of VCRs.
developed to meet various economic concerns from nations.
newspaper
Although
V R
and
between
are
telephone -penetration eni
per
GNP
radio penetration ratio and movie attendance
Lastly,
not
considered to be powerful predictors.
movie-going
acquisition
GNP
Similarily, the significLnt correlation between VCR
strong
telephone penetration ratios is also a result of the
relations
to
that correlaion is largely a function of
penetration,
per capita.
circulation is significantly related
appear
of
to
be
relative'.y
frequency,
Radio
independent
capita.
use
and
the
from
VCRs because VCR use more heavily relies
an
TV
penetration ankl its related variables.
It
across
is
conceivable that VCRs will penetrate
household&
nations more rapidly than any other electronic medium
the history of telecommunications.
a
TV
viewer's
relationship
in
VCRs, as a medium that alters
with television,
can be
used
for
a
variety of communication purposes such as education, instruction,
or development projects in general;
such,
as well as entertainmenL As
various types of video contents intended for accomplishing
different social, political, cultural or development goals may be
developed by nations around the world;
This, in turn, may gener-
rate a number Of neW reaearch Orobleis for interested scholars.
This study attempted to assess the
VCR
penetration
through
domestic economic,
Whether
relevant
the
possible predictors
examining a host of
policy,
media system and media infrastructure factors.
theoretical and statistical
factor
national
for
discovered
herein
significance
facilitates
the
of
each
eVehtual
construction of a formal media-penetration theory yet needs to be
determined by
iravided
from
future research efforts;
this
exploratory study
reSearch in thia emerging Subjet area.
34
7
Hopefully,
will
the results
stimulate
further
APPENDIX I
Low Income Category
High Income Category
Ethiopia
Oman
Libya
India
Tanzania
China
Sri Lanka
Pakittan
Indonesia
Egypt
Thailand
The Philippines
Nigeria
Peru
Jamaica
Columbia
Guyana
Lebanon
Puerto Rico
Middle Income Category
Syria
Jordan
malaysia
South Korea
Chili
Brazil
Mexico
Taiwan
Panama
Portugal
Argentina
South Africa
Venezuela
Greece
Israel
Hong Kong
Singapore
Iran
Iraq
Poland
USSR
Saudi Arabia
Qatar_
Kuwait
United Arab Emiratea
Ireland
Spain
Italy
New Zealand_
United Kingdom
AuStria
Japan
Belgium
Finland
The Netherlands
Australia
Canada
France
Germanyi Fed. Rep..
Denmark
United States
Sweden
Norway
Switzerland
APPENDTN 2
9
Table 1
Correlations_Between VCR Penetration
and All Variables
VCR Penetration Ratio
VCR Price
-.20
.134
34
Import Control
.08
.'425
23
GNI' Pet Capita
.48
.001
60
Urbanization Ratio
.06
.329
61
Income Distribution
Top i0% Households
-.27
.063
33
TOP 20% Households
=.24
.092
33
TV Channel Repertoire
.08
.276
61
TV system
.24
.031
61
TV Penetration Ratio
.26
.020
61
Radio Penetration Ratio
.12
.175
61
Newspaper Circulation
.25
.028
57
Movie-Attendance Frequency
-.10
.278
39
Telephone Penetration Ratio
.59
.001
35
**Statistical significance is indicated if p< .05.
Table 2
Correlations Between VCR Penetration and Other Variables
by Income Categories
Low_ Intome_Category
VCR Price
GNP Per Capita
Urbanization Ratio
.28
-.10
.56
.249
.359
.010
8
16
17
Middle-Income Category
-.03
ghlncbine Category
.476
8
-.42
.043
18
.005
;492
21
.51
.006
23
.20
.191
21
:..46
.014
23
.26S
10
-.31
;122
16
.302
10
-.26
.162
16
.22
;168
21
.28
.100
23
25
;137
21
-03
;448
23
Concelitration for Income
Distribution
Top 10% Households
Top 20% HOUSeholdS
TV System
TV Channel Repertoire
TV Penetration Ratio
Raditj Penetration Ratio
Newspaper Circulation
Movie-qtendance Frequency
Telephone Penetration Ratio
.80
;71
.37
.001
.86
;75
.67
-.11
.37
;016
438
.068
.498
.001
.001
.001
;386
.273
IffeN=14
**Statistical significance is indicated if p < .05.
7
1
17
P
17
22
.19
.20
.193
21
-.10
.320
23
17
.09
.353
21
-;16
.231
23
17
;10
.352
18
-.04
.434
22
9
-.14
.309
14
;425
16
5
.38
.124
11
.27
.132
19
Table 3
Radio Penetration
Correlations Among Media Infrastructure Variales
TV
Radio
Penetration
Penetration
Newspaper_
Attendante
Ratio
Ratio
Circulation
--FItqURMiq
_r_
p
Movie-
p
.70
.001
62
.57
.001
34
.52
.001
58
.02
.460
39
.03
.420
40
.12
.248
36
.60
.001
35
.70
.001
62
.60
.001
34
Ratio
Newspaper
Circulation
Movie-Attendance
Frequency
Telephone Pene-
.21
.160
24
tration Ratio
**Statistical significance is indicated if p c .05.
43
44
Table 4
Correlations Among Media Infrastructure Variables
by Income Categories
TV Penetration Ratio
Low
Income
_n
Middle
Income
r_
.93
17
(.001)
.35
21
(.062)
Newspaper_
Circulation
;54
17
(.013)
.07
Telephone_
Penetration
-.269
(.252)
.91
5
(.015)
High
Income
-n- -r-
Radio
Penetration
Ratiö
MovieAttendance
Frequency
-Radio Penetration Ratiä
n
.73
14
.16
(.294)
.10
16
(.361)
11
n
r
n
r
High
Inrome
n
r
24
.42
23
(.022)
(.436)
Middle
Income
(.001)
18
(=392)
-.06
Law
Income
;67_
19
.57
17
(.008)
-.24
9
(.267)
,935
(.001)
.010)
.41
18
(.004)
.25
_23
(.122)
.35
14
(.114)
-.11_
.50
11
(.057)
.57
16
(.345)
_19
(.006)
Ratio
Newspaper Circulation
Low
Income
MovieAttandance
Frequency
Telephone
Penetration
Ratio
-.28
Middle
Income
Movie-Attendante Fréqüëncy
High
Income
.36
12
(.123)
.14
(.233)
;79
5
(.058)
.14
10
(.348)
.57-:-__ 19
LOW
Income
Middle
Income
.10
3
(.469)
=.23
8
(.290)
High
Incnme
15
(.310)
(.005)
**Figures in the parentheses indicate statistical probabilitieS.
**Statistical significance is indicated if p
115
.05.
=.33
_
13
(.134)
Table 5
Ettimated Averages for VCR Penetration Ratio and Media Infrastructure Variablet
VCR
TV
Penetration
Radio
Newspaper
Penetration
Penetration
Circulation
Ratio
Ratio
_i_Ratio
Low Income
i
Teleophone
MOVié.=.
Attendance
Penetration
Frequency
Ratio
sets
Al
Sett
4.4
17
55
17
192
18
43
17
2,5
10
5
5
21
21
209
21
327
21
187
18
5
14
183
11
40
23
342
24
626
24
302
23
.44
16
446
19
23.3
61
218
62
405
63
190
58
2.5
40
302
35
n
coat
ets
n
no./times
n
sets
utegoty
Middle Income
Category
High Income
Category
All Three
Categories
Table 6
Multiple Regression
VCR Penetratión Ratio
Urbanization Ratio
GNP Per Capita
-.21
.124
60
.63
.000
60
.18
TV System
TV Channel Repertoire
36
.019
60
-.31
.006
60
.32
TV Penetration Ratio
Radio Penetration Ratio
;003
.000
.22
.186
60
-.34
.048
60
.37
.000
**Statistical significance is indicated if p< .05.
8
References
1Motion
Picture
Association of America,
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D
Straubhaar- "Developmental impact of the
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3
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_Peltom,
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4
_Intermedia,
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5
Ibid, Intermedia.
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Levy,
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7_
National- -Association of_
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_Ibid.; Lin; C.
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Ibid., Lin, C.
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Ibid., National Association of Broadcasters.
14
The
Economist
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Revolution in West Eur-ope, Special Report NO.
15
Ibid.,
The Economist Ihtelligence Unit.
16
Ibid., The Economist Intelligence Unit.
17
Ibid., The Economist Intelligence Unit.
18
Ibid.,
The Economist Intelligence Unit.
19
Ibid., The Economist Intelligence Unit.
20
Ibid.,
The Economist Intelligence Unit.
21
Ibid., The Economist Intelligence Unit.
49
Thel
144
Home
(1983).
Video
22
Ibid., The Economist Intelligence Unit.
23
J.
Straubliear,
Dand C. Lin. :"An_quantitative analysis
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24
Intermedia;
pP.260-261 (1984).
Ibid.,
Also see UNESCO Statistical Yearbook,
25
Ibid.,
Intermedia.
26Ibid., Intermedia.
27
Video
of the
B.
"The
Impact
Bakhaider,
Recorder :upon Saudi Arbian Television and Society."
master''S theSia, San Diego State University (1981).
Cassette_
Unpublished
28
Ibid., Boyd, B. and J. Straubhaar.
29
Ibid., Boyd, D. and J. Straubhaar.
30
_Ibid., Intermedia.
31
Ibid.,
Intermedia.
32
Ibid., Intermedia.
33
Ibid., Intermedia.
34-
Broadcasting Around the World (Blue Ridge
MCCAVitt, W.E.
Summiti PA: TAB BOOkai Ind., 1981).
35
Ibid.,
Intermedia.
Ibid.,
Intermedia.
Ibid.,
Intermedia.
36
37
38
will sprout the party line,"
Businessweek
"VCR_ that
Radio Free Europe Research.
"A boom in
p._
40 (1984);Item 7, Oct. 19
private redoercers," Polish Situation Report-LIB,
Sept.3;
(1984).
39Ibid., Businessweek.
40_
New-Xork Times.- "VCRs go on fast forward," Dec. 13, p. 78
"Coexisting with Western TV," Feb.
World Press Review.
pp. 58E59 (1986).
(19821;
41
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50
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HaWaii, EaSt=WeSt Center pee,, 1967).
44
Katz,
E. and G. WedeA.
Broadcasting in the Third World;
(Cambridge, MA: Harvard Press, 1977);
_
45
"Communication and development," in E. Pool,
Frey,
E. W.
E.
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Siebert,
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W. Schramm and T. Peterson. Four Theories
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Lin, C._and M. B. Salwen.
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jin, C. and M. B. Salwen.
50-
World_ Broadcasting SyStems,
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Lent,
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(Philadelphia,
Temple
University Press, 1982).
_
51-
iIbid., Boyd, D.
A.
52
_
Alisky, M.__Latin:American:Media::Guidance and Censorship
(Ames,_IA: The Iowa State University Press, 1981) pp. 166-192;
Alisky, M.
54i
_Broadcasting_in Eastern Europe and the Soviet
Pualui__B.
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55
Hornet,
R.
Politicsi Cultures and Communication.
York: Prager Publishers, 1976).
(New
58
Jeong-Hwa Choi (a native of:south Korea) and Weada
Note.
Toro_(a_native of Puerto_Rico), _two_doctoral_students_ from
Department of Communication at_Michigan State University,
were interviewed for
the VCR penetration statistics and VCR
prices in South Korea and Puerto Rico.
Del
the
57
Ibid.,
Intermedia.
Ibid.,
Intermedia.
58
59
Ibid., Intermedia.
51
60
Yor
The World Bank.
World Deve oRment Report
Oxford University Press, 1984).
:
1984.
(NeW
Yearbook
1984.
61
Ibid., The World Bank.
62
Ibid., The World Bank.
63
Ibid., The World Bank.
64The United Nations.
(UNESCO Publication, 1984).
UNESCO Statistital
65Radio TV HandbOok.- 38 (London:
Year Book 1984:
A
World
Pulbibation Ltd., 1984).
The JEUrORet
Billboard A.
G.,
Survey.
(London:
1984);
Europa
66
Ibid., The United Nations.
67
Ibid., The United Nations.
68
-Ibid., The United Nations.
69
Ibid., The United Nations;
70
Ibid., The Europa Year Book 1984: A World Survey.
71
-
Ibid., Intermedia; The Economic Intelligence Unit.
72
Ibid.,
Intermedia;
The
Survey.
52
Europa Year Book 1984:
A World

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