Research on airport disaster risk quantitative evaluation methods

Research Trends and Results
Research on airport disaster risk quantitative
evaluation methods
NAKAJIMA Yuki, Research Coordinator for Advanced Airport Technology
Airport Department
(Key words) Inventory analysis, loss probability factor, predicted maximum loss (PML)
Figure 2. Cause-Consequence Diagram Overlapping
Damage Phenomena
Earthquake
occurs
地震発生
Tsunami
occurs
津波発生
Non-exceedance probability of loss
Loss occurrence probability by damage
and form of operation
Figure 1. Loss Probability Factor/PML Calculation
Example
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
49.0%
51.0%
0.5
0.4
0.3
Loss
probability
factor
Cumulative
distribution
function of
loss ratio
Tsunami submersion
NO
津
波
浸
水
YE S
滑走路2000m
2,000m of runway
usable
使用可
ＹＥＳ
ＮＯ
Inoperable
運用不可
Restoration
復旧
Runway liquefaction
滑走路の
Liquefaction
of
runway
液状化
NO
滑走路2000m
2,000m of runway
usable
使用可
エプロンの
Apron liquefy
action
液状化
NO
Inoperable
運用不可
Vibration
damage to control tower
管制塔の振動被害
Minor
Moderate
Destroyed
軽微
半壊
全壊
YES
NO
Perimeter security
fence liquefaction
Inoperable
運用不可
場周柵
Perimeter
security fence
liquefaction
の液状化
NO
20 day loss
YES
Inoperable
運用不可
Shaking damage to
passenger terminal
ビ旅
ル客
のタ
震ー
動ミ
被ナ
害ル
Shaking damage to
旅客ターミナルビ
passenger terminal
ルの震動被害
NO
20 day loss
YES
20 day loss
Shaking damage
to fuel storage
facility
Inoperable
運用不可
燃
の
料
震
貯
動
蔵
被
施
害
設
Shaking damage
to airport electric
power plant
20 day loss
Emergency
control tower
非常用管制塔
usable
使用可
場
液
周
状
柵
化
の
operation
形態
20 day loss
YES
Usable spot
使用可能スポット
Fixed wing
固定翼
ＮＯ
管
制
塔
の
振
動
被
害
被害・
Damage
and
form of
運用
ＮＯ
Inoperable
運用不可
エ
プ
ロ
ン
の
液
状
化
空
の
港
震
電
動
力
被
施
害
設
YES
ＹＥＳ
Apron liquefaction
Causes of damage
滑
走
路
の
液
状
化
被
害
要
因
2. Introduction of inventory analysis
Based on damage caused at the Sendai Airport by
the Great East Japan Earthquake, resulting conditions
were hypothesized, a sample airport and earthquake
etc. were set, a cause-consequence diagram of the
restoration and operation process was prepared, and
inventory analysis, which is a method used in the
safety engineering field, was performed. For example,
regarding the loss when one sample earthquake
occurred, the occurrence probability (loss probability
factor) and the loss 10% threshold value
non-exceedance probability (predicted maximum loss:
PML) were calculated by damage and form of
operation.
It is possible to interpret Figure 2, which
superimposes damage phenomena on Figure 1 and the
cause-consequence diagram, as showing that there is a
49% probability of a case where shaking damage to
空港への
Tsunami
submerges
airport
津波浸水
Shaking damage to
control tower
1. Use of capabilities of the private sector to
operate airports
The Law for the Use of Capabilities of the Private
Sector to Operate Government Managed Airports
(Law No. 61 of 2013) has been enacted, and the Basic
Guideline to Using Capabilities of the Private Sector
to
Operate
Government
Managed
Airports
(Notification of November 2013) issued under the
same law legally obligates private companies with
operation rights to set disaster phenomena caused by
earthquakes and tsunami and the degrees of damage
they cause and to purchase insurance, so research and
development of methods of quantitatively evaluating
disaster risk is an urgent challenge.
Shaking
damage to fuel
燃料貯蔵施設
storage facility
の震動被害
NO
YES
Inoperable
運用不可
30 day loss
空港電力施設
Shaking
damage to airport
electric
power facility
の震動被害
NO
YES
Inoperable
運用不可
Restoration of operation of commercial
民間航空機の運航再開
aircraft
30 day loss
Loss 20 days
(takes 20 days to restore perimeter security fence damaged by tsunami)
the perimeter security fence or to the terminal building
closes the airport for 20 days, and a 51% probability
of damage to fuel supply facilities or electric power
equipment of closing the airport for 30 days. In this
way, a method of visualizing or quantifying risk to
provide material on which decision-makers can base
countermeasure decisions was proposed.
In addition, a method of showing the probability of
the occurrence and quantity of loss of each earthquake
in the coming year at one airport, a method of
calculating the funding necessary to measure
countermeasure effectiveness, and a method of
computing the restoration curve necessary to prioritize
countermeasures were proposed.
0.2
0.1
0.0
0
～3
～6
～9
～12
～15
～18
～21
20
～24
～27
～30
30
Days commercial operation halted (days)
Normal expected loss (NEL) = 25.10 days
Predicted maximum loss (PML) = 30.00 days
3. Future challenges
We wish to continue research and development
while obtaining the understanding of concerned
persons in order to promote the use of the private
sector: preparing more realistic predictions of
conditions considering disruption of access, fire and so
on, or methods of analyzing the financial impact of an
earthquake and tsunami on a company with operation
rights.
[Source]
TECHNICAL NOTE of NILIM NO. 756
http://www.nilim.go.jp/lab/bcg/siryou/tnn/tnn756.htm

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