保険業界におけるリスクの複合性 - ミュンヘン再保険会社 Munich Re

プレスリリース
2011 年 10 月 24 日
不確実性の高まりが保険業界の課題
欧州債務危機、米債務問題、長引く低金利や自然災害による多額の保険金支払いは、保険・再保
険会社に大きな課題を突きつけている。ミュンヘン再保険はこうしたリスクの複合性を分析し、地
域・産業における集積リスクを洗い出している。
保険業界が最も影響を受けているのは長引く低金利。しかし、当社取締役ルドガー・アーノルドゥッ
センは「当社の慎重な資産運用戦略は効果を発揮。分散投資の重要性はこれまで以上に高まって
いる」と述べる。しかし運用収益の低下分は、特にロング・テール種目での保険料率に反映していか
なければならない。「来る契約更改でも最大の課題となる」（アーノルドゥッセン）。金融市場安定化
は各国政府の重要課題であるということを、現在の危機は示している。「金融規制を強化するべき。
欧州保険業界はソルベンシーⅡによって “正しい道”を歩んでいる」（アーノルドゥッセン）
一方、保険・再保険業界に大きな課題を突きつけているのは金融危機という単一リスクだけではな
い。複合的なリスクだ。特にグローバルに網羅したサプライチェーンを持つ半導体や自動車部品製
造会社は、構外利益損失にさらされている（サプライチェーン寸断などによる事業中断）。これは企
業にとって非常に危機的状況だ。日本や台湾の部品製造工場が台風による影響を受けている一方
で、米北・中西部の完成品工場は地震による損失を被るといった具合だ。「この点に関して元受保
険会社と明確な話し合いを持ち、サプライチェーン寸断リスクに関する情報の透明性を高めてもらう
ことを強くお願いする。情報の透明性のみが双方の解決策を見い出すだろう」（アーノルドゥッセン）
2012 年 1 月 1 日再保険契約更改
2011 年は大規模自然災害により、保険損害は過去最大となった。多額の保険金支払いは今年度
これまでに実施した契約更改に影響を与えてきたとは言え、市場での再保険料が同じ動きを見せて
いるわけではない。それでも「当社のポートフォリオの質が改善し、保険料収入は増加」（アーノルド
ゥッセン）。
自然災害による保険金支払いがあった地域の 2011 年度更改では、保険料が大幅に上昇」（アーノ
ルドゥッセン）。たとえば豪州やニュージーランドでは平均 40～50%上昇。また米国や中南米の自
然災害分野でも平均 10%上昇。この外の分野では横ばいだった。
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当社では今年度末の損害再保険契約更改でも同様の傾向が続くと見ている。「（影響を受けた）市
場はハード化（価格が上昇）している一方で、全般的に価格は横ばい」（アーノルドゥッセン）。「特に
現在のような不確実な状況下では、十分な収益確保に注視することがこれまでにも増して重要」とし、
当社はこれを念頭に、契約更改に向けた話し合いに臨む構えだと述べた。
※バーデンバーデンで行った再保険会議での、当社取締役ルドガー・アーノルドゥッセンのプレゼ
ン資料は当リリースの最後をご覧ください。
※当リリースに関するお問い合わせ先
ミュンヘン再保険広報
栗橋
[email protected]
03-5251-6852
Munich Re stands for exceptional solution-based expertise, consistent risk management,
financial stability and client proximity. Munich Re creates value for clients, shareholders and
staff alike. In the financial year 2010, the Group – which pursues an integrated business
model consisting of insurance and reinsurance – achieved a profit of €2.4bn on premium
income of around €46bn. It operates in all lines of insurance, with around 47,000 employees
throughout the world. With premium income of around €24bn from reinsurance alone, it is
one of the world’s eading reinsurers. Especially when clients require solutions for complex
risks, Munich Re is a much sought-after risk carrier. Our primary insurance operations are
concentrated mainly in the ERGO Insurance Group. With premium income of over €20bn,
ERGO is one of the largest insurance groups in Europe and Germany. It is the market leader
in Europe in health and legal protection insurance. More than 40 million clients in over 30
countries place their trust in the services and security it provides. In international healthcare
business, Munich Re pools its insurance and reinsurance operations, as well as related
services, under the Munich Health brand. Munich Re’s global investments amounting to
€193bn are managed by MEAG, which also makes its competence available to private and
institutional investors outside the Group.
Disclaimer
This press release contains forward-looking statements that are based on current
assumptions and forecasts of the management of Munich Re. Known and unknown risks,
uncertainties and other factors could lead to material differences between the forward2|P a g e
looking statements given here and the actual development, in particular the results, financial
situation and performance of our Company. The Company assumes no liability to update
these forward-looking statements or to conform them to future events or developments.
Munich, 24 October 2011
Münchener Rückversicherungs-Gesellschaft
Aktiengesellschaft in München
Media Relations
Königinstrasse 107
80802 München
Germany
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BADEN-BADEN 2011
IS THE MARKET READY TO CHANGE?
24 October 2011
Ludger Arnoldussen
Key topics and challenging issues for the insurance
business
High natural
catastrophe losses
Low-interest-rate
environment
Euro
crisis/Turbulence in
the financial markets
Increasing
accumulation
risks
Global
economic
networking
Emerging
risks
Political
uncertainty
Changing
regulatory
framework
Is the market ready to change? / Ludger Arnoldussen
24.10.2011
2
Generally low-interest environment – Crisis signalled
by sharply falling yields throughout the year
Yields on ten-year government bonds
 Falling interest rates have
a positive effect on the
capital base of insurers,
but an adverse effect on
future investment income.
4,5
4
3,5
3
UK
2,5
USA
2
1,5
1
0,5
Deutschland
 Low-interest-rate
environment has to be
reflected in the pricing,
esp. in long-tail business.
 Substantial international
differences despite
generally low-interestrate environment.
0
Jan. 11Feb. 11Mrz. 11 Apr. 11 Mai. 11 Jun. 11 Jul. 11 Aug. 11Sep. 11Okt. 11
Source: Bloomberg
Is the market ready to change? / Ludger Arnoldussen
24.10.2011
3
Low-interest-rate environment:
Shock or opportunity for the industry?
 Reduced investment income
 Capital relief measures may be necessary
 Low interest rates also have a salutary effect on the non-life market (cash-flowunderwriting opportunities are limited)
 Reinsurers have to reflect the low-interest-rate environment in their pricing
 Solvency II – the insurance industry in Europe is on the right track
Low interest rates make price increases necessary, especially in
the case of long-tail risks.
Is the market ready to change? / Ludger Arnoldussen
24.10.2011
4
Euro debt crisis: Present situation
Current bywords – Maastricht treaty and eurobonds:
 Amending the Maastricht treaty to address future challenges
 Sanctions and regulations to ensure the success of the treaty
 Fiscal union and a common budgetary policy are a precondition of eurobonds
 Effective mechanisms for taking action at European level
Is the market ready to change? / Ludger Arnoldussen
24.10.2011
5
Contingent business interruption (CBI)
The problem
2nd-tier
suppliers
2nd-tier
suppliers
Insured
business
1st-tier
supplier
1st-tier
supplier
Customer
Claim
Incident
Utility
Is the market ready to change? / Ludger Arnoldussen
24.10.2011
6
CBI: Critical supply industries
 Definition of critical supply industries:
Industries that produce parts on which other industries are highly dependent and whose
failure could lead to a material CBI loss in those industries
 Critical supply industries identified in the context of the CBI underwriting strategy:
Automotive suppliers
Semiconductor production
Is the market ready to change? / Ludger Arnoldussen
24.10.2011
7
CBI: Critical scenarios
Combination of country/region, accumulation hazard and the particular supply industry
Semiconductor production
Automotive suppliers
Japan earthquake
Japan earthquake
Japan typhoon
Japan typhoon
Taiwan earthquake
US Midwest earthquake
Taiwan typhoon
US LA/California earthquake
US Pacific Northwest earthquake
Is the market ready to change? / Ludger Arnoldussen
24.10.2011
8
Natural catastrophes January–September 2011
Wildfires
Canada, 14–22 May Severe weather, tornadoes
USA, 20–27 May
Hurricane Irene
USA, Caribbean
22 Aug.–2 Sept.
Floods
India,
June–Aug.
Floods
USA, April–May
Severe weather, tornadoes
USA, 22–28 April
Drought
USA,
ongoing
Floods,
landslides
Thailand, Cambodia,
Vietnam, Aug.–Sept.
Wildfires
USA, April/Sept.
Landslides, flash floods
Brazil, 12/16 Jan
Earthquake,
tsunami
Japan,
11 March
Floods
Pakistan
Aug.–Sept.
Drought
Somalia
ongoing
Cyclone
Yasi
Australia, 2
Feb.
Earthquake
Floods,
New Zealand, 22 Feb.
flash floods
Earthquake
Australia
New Zealand, 13
Dec. 2010–Jan. 2011
June
Number of events: 550
Natural catastrophes
Geophysical events
(Earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions)
Hydrological events
(Floods, mass movements)
Selection of major loss events (see
table)
Meteorological events
(Windstorms)
Climatological events
(Temperature extremes, droughts, wildfires)
© 2011 Munich Reinsurance Company, Geo Risks Research, NatCatSERVICE
Is the market ready to change? / Ludger Arnoldussen
24.10.2011
9
Natural hazards in Europe
Munich Re’s own models are regularly checked and optimised using all available information:

Our own analysis results

Studies like the GDV’s “Scenarios for Germany – Impacts of climate change on the loss situation in the
insurance industry”

Findings produced by external models
Conclusion:

Windstorm modelling has improved thanks to new data on current storms and revised historical data.

The updating of Munich Re’s Storm Europe model results overall (including in Germany) in an increase in
the burning cost
From the insurers’ perspective, the reinsurance structure may need
adjustment to maintain the present level of protection.
 Munich Re will continue to make available its previous high capacity
provided technically adequate prices are achieved.
Is the market ready to change? / Ludger Arnoldussen
24.10.2011
10
Renewals 2011 – First evidence of improved prospects
Factors putting upward pressure on pricing
Renewals 2011 – Munich Re's portfolio
 Prolonged low-interest rate environment –
Quite likely scenario
 Reserve releases drying out – Redundancies largely
exhausted
 Introduction of RMS11 – Impact to become
increasingly visible
 Reduced capacity – Result of large losses, but still
artificially inflated industry capital
%
100
€m 10,596
–15.8
84.2
5.1
15.1
104.3
1,678
8,918
540
1,595
11,052
Change in premium:
 Thereof price movement:
 Thereof change in exposure for our share:
+4.3%
+1.0%
+3.3%
Fragmentation of p-c reinsurance market
Examples
 US casualty
 Proportional
business
Stable
Examples
 Loss-affected segments
 Nat cat business
 Large commercial
business
 Specific motor markets
Expected price change
Increasing
Total
Cancelled Renewed
renewable
Increase
New
Estimated
on
business outcome
renewable
Munich Re actively managing the reinsurance cycle – Overall improving
prospects with differing characteristics depending on business line and area
Is the market ready to change? / Ludger Arnoldussen
24.10.2011
11
Future prospects
 Reinsurance and primary insurance market further affected by capital market
fluctuations, primarily due to debt crisis and low-interest-rate environment
 Reinsurance markets remain fragmented
 Cycles flatten out
Strict focus on profitability is more vital than ever in times of
major uncertainty.
Is the market ready to change? / Ludger Arnoldussen
24.10.2011
12
Disclaimer
This presentation contains forward-looking statements that are based on current
assumptions and forecasts of the management of Munich Re. Known and unknown
risks, uncertainties and other factors could lead to material differences between the
forward-looking statements given here and the actual development, in particular the
results, financial situation and performance of our Company. The Company assumes
no liability to update these forward-looking statements or to conform them to future
events or developments.
Is the market ready to change? / Ludger Arnoldussen
24.10.2011
13

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