Sistema elettrico italiano: strategia per la competitività e lo sviluppo sostenibile Assocarboni F. Fabbri Roma, 27 marzo 2015 Dove siamo oggi …. Due “trends” contrapposti … 350 300 electricity demand TWh 250 200 150 Renewable production TWh 100 50 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Fonti: Terna Presentation title - 01/04/2015 – P 2 © ALSTOM 2013. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited. Dove siamo oggi …. La domanda elettrica, anche se minore, ha bisogno di essere soddisfatta con un mix corretto ... • • • • Produzione elettrica TWh 350 300 250 Fossile Idrico Eolico Solare 200 Il CARBONE si mantiene stabile 150 100 Le FER sono cresciute sottraendo spazio al GAS 50 0 FER Carbone Gas Nat. Prod. Petroliferi Altro Fonti: Terna / GSE Presentation title - 01/04/2015 – P 3 © ALSTOM 2013. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited. Il carbone oggi serve Punti di forza SICURO Presentation title - 01/04/2015 – P 4 © ALSTOM 2013. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited. Il carbone oggi serve Criticità • Persistono resistenze locali • Produzione di CO2 per KWh importante > 500 mg/Kwh • Le centrali si prestano ad attacchi mediatici come tutto ciò che è visibile • Disinformazione diffusa sui media... emotività vs conoscenza • Vi è la necessità di un confronto serio che comprenda: − il rispetto della salute e dell’ambiente − la sicurezza − la competitività del paese Environmental Friendly Definition: dovrebbe considerare l’intero processo di produzione dell’energia Presentation title - 01/04/2015 – P 5 © ALSTOM 2013. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited. Cambiamento? Scenario attuale • la dipendenza dal gas continua ad esporci a rischi a causa degli scenari geopolitici • gli impianti a carbone continuano ad essere strategici Strategie di mitigazione • rinuciare al carbone non è opportuno • è consigliabile mantenere un giusto mix che ci cauteli da eventuali deficit Presentation title - 01/04/2015 – P 6 © ALSTOM 2013. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited. Cosa fare in questo contesto • Migliorare ulteriormente il livello di abbattimento delle emissioni (come E.On, con Alstom, sta facendo a Fiume Santo) • Rendere più efficienti gli impianti esistenti per uno sviluppo sostenibile sia dal punto di vista ambientale che economico. Cogliere opportunità: • Dare supporto ai clienti per il co-firing con biomasse da rifiuto Presentation title - 01/04/2015 – P 7 © ALSTOM 2013. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited. Cosa può offrire ALSTOM Nr.1 nell’Idroelettrico Nr. 1 nelle conventional islands degli impianti Nucleari Eolico Nr. 1 nei sistemi di controllo della qualità dell’aria Un ampio portafoglio di prodotti ecocompatibili nei vari settori Presentation title - 01/04/2015 – P 8 © ALSTOM 2013. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited. Produzione di energia affidabile, sicura ed efficiente per nuovi impianti Efficienza Emissioni CO2 Carbone Gas Dal 30% al 50% Dal 40% al 60% 40% 33% 60% della flotta installata prevista per il 2030 è ancora da costruire Presentation title - 01/04/2015 – P 9 © ALSTOM 2013. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited. Invecchiamento della flotta installata Evoluzione della flotta installata che raggiunge i 40 anni di esercizio (GW) 90 GW p.a 99 GW p.a China Asia excluding China 93 GW p.a South & Central America Middle East & Africa North America 62 GW p.a Europe 36 GW p.a 24 GW p.a 14 GW p.a Source: Alstom, adapted from UDI * Best Available Technology 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 Sostituzione e Retrofit con BAT* è un’enorme opportunità per migliorare l’efficienza degli impianti Presentation title - 01/04/2015 – P 10 © ALSTOM 2013. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited. Efficientamento della produzione: Retrofit Ottimizzazione d’impianto: -5% CO2 Retrofit della Turbina: -5% CO2 Retrofit del Boiler: -3% CO2 Retrofit può diminuire le emissioni di CO2 fino al ~13 % 60% della CO2 emessa nel 2030 proverrà dall’attuale flotta installata Presentation title - 01/04/2015 – P 11 © ALSTOM 2013. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited. Cosa fare in questo contesto In un contesto di sovracapacità > 35% è ragionevole ipotizzare nel breve periodo (2020) un aumento della domanda tradizionale? electricity demand TWh 340 330 320 310 300 290 280 270 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 ...probabilmente no, quindi dobbiamo introdurre dei fattori di cambiamento che aiutino la ripresa di consumo di energia efficiente... Fonti: Terna / GSE Presentation title - 01/04/2015 – P 12 © ALSTOM 2013. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited. Cosa fare in questo contesto • Una nuova politica di sgravi fiscali per le imprese per stimolare la domanda in un mercato ancora stagnante • Una nuova politica tariffaria che non disincentivi un consumo efficiente e responsabile • Promuovere e facilitare la creazione di distretti energetici efficienti attrattivi per nuovi insediamenti industriali • Invertire le modalità di consumo elettrico: − Riscaldamento con pompe di calore...città meno inquinate e più vivibili. − Usi domestici...più sicurezza negli agglomerati urbani. − Illuminazione pubblica...strade più sicure − Trasporti Presentation title - 01/04/2015 – P 13 © ALSTOM 2013. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited. Oggi forniamo le soluzioni più efficienti per la pulizia dell’aria − Per i nuovi impianti − Per la flotta installata Presentation title - 01/04/2015 – P 14 © ALSTOM 2013. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited. www.alstom.com
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