Coordinated use of targeted observations during TCS-08/T-PARC 3rd THORPEX International Science Symposium 14 Sep. 2009 Munehiko Yamaguchi, Sharanya J. Majumdar (RSMAS/U. Miami) and multiple collaborators Outline of the talk Pretty Simple… 1. What we did before TCS-08/T-PARC 2. What we did during TCS-08/T-PARC 3. What we learned from TCS-08/T-PARC I will talk about the above 3 from a perspective of targeted observations Guideline on targeting products and timelines After the Hawaii meeting in December 2007 (8 months before TCS-08/T-PARC), our targeting group created a guideline on targeting products and timelines because it was found that many institutes could provide the sensitive area calculations and the availability time of each guidance varied from one center to another. (Final version of the guideline was completed in July…) Singular vectors Adjoint based SAC •ECMWF •NTU (ADSSV) •NRL (based on NOGAPS) •NRL (based on COAMPS) •JMA •U Yonsei (based on MM5) Ensemble based SAC •UKMO (ETKF based on MOGREPS) •U Miami/NCEP (ETKF based on NCEP + ECMWF + CMC ensembles) •U Washington (Ensemble sensitivity based on WRF) Ensemble variance •NOAA (based on NCEP ensembles) 10 kinds of SAC in total (many talks and posters about SAC and targeting during TTISS) Websites providing sensitive area calculations Sensitive Area Calculations (SAC) • Automatic submission of 5 fixed areas • Up to 5 additional areas chosen interactively • Flexible choice of targeting time (t + 18 to 102 h) and verification time (t + 36 to 120 h) Courtesy of Sarah Jones, David Richardson, Cristina Prates and Cihan Sahin. Summary of Missions TC Date Aircraft Non-typhoon 2008082600-2008090900 6 Falcon missions TY Nuri 2008082012 DOTSTAR TY Sinlaku 2008091000 DOTSTAR TY Sinlaku 2008091100 - 2008091112 DOTSTAR and Falcon TY Sinlaku 2008091400 Falcon TS Sinlaku 2008091600 DOTSTAR and Falcon TY Hagupit 2008092200 DOTSTAR STY Jangmi 2008092700 DOTSTAR TY Jangmi 2008092800 - 2008092812 DOTSTAR and Falcon TS Jangmi 2008092906-2008100100 3 Falcon missions JMA activated rapid-scan mode on MTSAT2 satellite between 20080910122008091306 and 2008092712-2008092812. Extra rawinsonde observations. Targeting Elluminate Session The targeting group hold an 1-hour Targeting Elluminate Session before the Daily Planning Meeting when targeting missions might be expected and mainly discussed about 1. Synopsis based on satellite images and analysis fields by global models such as ECMWF, UKMO, GFS and NOGAPS. 2. Available observation resources 3. Forecast uncertainty using ensemble products such as tracks and spread of Z500. 4. Sensitive area calculations 5. Tentative flight plan Following 3 slides are the slides we really used in the Targeting Elluminate Session starting from 21UTC 9th September 2008 for a flight mission for Typhoon Sinlaku at 00 UTC 11th September 2008. EPS track forecasts JMA Typhoon EPS JMA Medium-Range EPS 2008.09.09 06UTC ini +132h 2008.09.08 012UTC ini +216h ECMWF EPS GFS EPS 2008.09.08 12UTC ini +120h 2008.09.09 12UTC ini +???h Sensitive analysis calculations: Obs. Time 00Z 11th Sept. ECMWF NOGAPS JMA UM ETKF UK ETKF COAMPS Joint Flight Plan: 00Z 11th Sept. DOTSTAR (Blue) and Falcon (Red) Flight Plan Canceled Flight: Mission at 00Z 12th Sept. The latest email from Wu-san said, “Concerning the weather condition not suitable for a feasible targeting flight, the DOTSTAR mission for 00UTC 12 Sept. has just been called off.” DOTSTAR !!! Canceled !!! Due to the weather condition, the planned DOTSTAR mission at 00UTC 12th Sept. was canceled. Sensitive area not fully covered: Mission at 00Z 10th Sept. DOTSTAR Flight Plan ECMWF JMA Obs. Points cover sensitive regions proposed by guidance Area surrounded by black line is also sensitive NOGAPS Due to the limited aircraft resources, the sensitivity area was not fully covered. OSE using NCEP GFS for Sinlaku initiated at 00Z 10th Sept. 500 hPa ASYMMETRIC 500 hPa ASYMMETRIC STREAMF’N DIFF WIND DIFF +00 h +00 h JMA BEST TRACK WITH DROPS +18 h +18 h WITHOUT DROPS Large increments in the west edge of the Pacific High, leading to the persistent changes in the steering flow Summary 1. The Guideline on targeting products and timelines were helpful in understanding when and what products were available at each meeting help in Monterey, Tokyo, Taiwan, etc. Our multi-agency, multi-national involved targeting missions worked out!! 2. The Websites were useful to compare the various kinds of sensitivity analysis guidance. 3. The targeting group hold the 1-hour Targeting Elluminate Session when targeting mission was expected. 4. We conducted targeting missions for 4 typhoons. 5. Due to the weather condition and limited aircraft resources, we had to be very flexible in the decision-making process. Short term goals 1. Observing System Experiment (OSE): Evaluate the impact of targeted observations based on sensitivity areas. 2. Understand the role of the additional observations in NWP models. It might happen that some observations lead to the deterioration of model performance. 3. Evaluate fidelity of sensitivity analysis guidance (long targeting and verification time). Long term goals 1. Demonstrate utility of targeted observations 2. Observation types: manned and unmanned aircraft, adaptive targeting/thinning of satellite winds and radiances, off-time rawinsondes, WISDOM, others… 3. Develop centralized, coordinated data targeting system for TCs, Winter Storms, others…? 4. Multi-agency, multi-national. 5. Saves time and human error; allows for archiving and evaluation. 6. Extend to 3-7 day track forecasts; intensity prediction
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