スライド 1

エンロン問題に見る財務分析の限界
「愛知工業大学」経営情報科学部
「岡崎一浩」
経営姿勢：二流会社がGreenmailから生き残るために、 Drexel Burnham Lambert
のマイケル・ミルケンを顧問にしたジャンク債のノーハウを取得した。
粉飾決算の動機
•財務
高い株価
•経営
Ｍ＆Ａコスト
•報酬・労務
ストック・オプション
•会計費用
自社株を原資とする年金コストの減少
•監査
分析的手法による低リスク判定
安い資金調達コスト
倒産原因：株価下落による社債条件による即時償還義務の発生
2000年年次報告書
M&A の効率
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
(Unaudited: in millions, except per share data)
Revenues
収入・売上高
営業利益
Net income:
Operating results
Items impacting comparability
純利益
Total
2000
$100,789
1999
$ 40,112
$ 1,266
(287)
$ 979
957
(64)
893
1998
$ 31,260
698
5
703
1997
$20,273
515
(410)
105
1996
$13,289
493
91
584
Earnings per diluted common share:
1株当り営業利益
Operating results
Items impacting comparability
Total
$ 1.47
(0.35)
$ 1.12
1.18
(0.08)
1.10
1.00
0.01
1.01
0.87
(0.71)
0.16
0.91
0.17
1.08
Dividends paid per common share
$ 0.50
0. 50
0.48
0.46
0.43
総資産
Total assets
$ 65,503
33,381
29,350
22,552
16,137
Cash from operating activities
(excluding working capital)
$ 3,010
2,228
1,873
276
742
Capital expenditures and equity investments
$ 3,314
3,085
3,564
2,092
1,483
NYSE price range
High
Low
Close December 31
株価
$ 90 9/16
41 3/8
83 1/8
$50
株価は、ＤＣＦ法ではなく宝くじ購$25
$0
入と同じ期待で買われた。
44 7/8
28 3/4
44 3/8
29 3/8
19 1/16
28 17/32
22 9/16
17 1/2
20 25/32
23 3/4
17 5/16
21 9/16
損益＆キャッシュフロー
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
(Unaudited: in millions, except per share data)
Revenues
Net income:
Operating results
Items impacting comparability
Total
2000
$100,789
1999
$ 40,112
$ 1,266
(287)
$ 979
957
(64)
893
1998
$ 31,260
698
5
703
1997
$20,273
515
(410)
105
1996
$13,289
493
91
584
Earnings per diluted common share:
Operating results
Items impacting comparability
Total
$ 1.47
(0.35)
$ 1.12
1.18
(0.08)
1.10
1.00
0.01
1.01
0.87
(0.71)
0.16
0.91
0.17
1.08
Dividends paid per common share
$ 0.50
0. 50
0.48
0.46
0.43
Total assets
$ 65,503
33,381
29,350
22,552
16,137
Cash from operating activities
(excluding working capital)
$ 3,010
2,228
1,873
276
742
Capital expenditures and equity investments
$ 3,314
3,085
3,564
2,092
1,483
NYSE price range
High
Low
Close December 31
$ 90 9/16
41 3/8
83 1/8
44 7/8
28 3/4
44 3/8
29 3/8
19 1/16
28 17/32
22 9/16
17 1/2
20 25/32
23 3/4
17 5/16
21 9/16
手結
法論 HIGHLIGHTS
FINANCIAL
(Unaudited: in millions, except per share data)
か
Revenues
ら
Net income:
Operating results
は監
Items impacting comparability
Total
潜査
Earnings
per diluted common
share:
在リ
経常利益率
Operating results
Items impacting comparability
的ス
Total
ク
に
Dividends paid per common share
低は
Total assets
く分
Cash from operating activities
な析working capital)
(excluding
い的
Capital
expenditures and equity investments
。
Free cash flow
損益＆キャッシュフロー
2000
$100,789
$ 1,266
(287)
$ 979
1.26%
957
(64)
893
1998
$ 31,260
1997
$20,273
698
5
703
1996
$13,289
515
(410)
105
2.39%
2.29%
$ 1.47
1.18
(0.35)
(0.08)
$ 1.12
1.10
2.54%
1.00
0.01
1.01
$ 0.50
0.48
493
91
584
3.71%
0.87
(0.71)
0.16
0.91
0.17
1.08
損益は右肩上がりできわめて好調
0. 50
0.46
0.43
ただし、利益率は連続低下
29,350
22,552
16,137
$ 65,503
33,381
$ 3,010
2,228
1,873
276
742
$ 3,314
3,085
3,564
2,092
1,483
(1,694)
(1,818)
($ 304)
財務活動
株主
1999
$ 40,112
(857)
(741)
有利子負債
Cash
投資活動
営業活動
事業
キャッシュフロー分析からは投資に無理が見える。
株価のバブル度
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
(Unaudited: in millions, except per share data)
Revenues
Net income:
Operating results
Items impacting comparability
Total
ＰＥＲ
2000
$100,789
1999
$ 40,112
$ 1,266
(287)
$ 979
957
(64)
893
1998
$ 31,260
698
5
703
1997
$20,273
515
(410)
105
1996
$13,289
493
91
584
Earnings per diluted common share:
Operating results
Items impacting comparability
Total
$ 1.47
(0.35)
$ 1.12
1.18
(0.08)
1.10
1.00
0.01
1.01
0.87
(0.71)
0.16
0.91
0.17
1.08
Dividends paid per common share
$ 0.50
0. 50
0.48
0.46
0.43
Total assets
$ 65,503
33,381
29,350
22,552
16,137
Cash from operating activities
(excluding working capital)
$ 3,010
2,228
1,873
276
742
Capital expenditures and equity investments
$ 3,314
3,085
3,564
2,092
1,483
NYSE price range
High
Low
Close December 31
$ 90 9/16
41 3/8
83 1/8
44 7/8
28 3/4
44 3/8
29 3/8
19 1/16
28 17/32
22 9/16
17 1/2
20 25/32
23 3/4
17 5/16
21 9/16
は結
、論 HIGHLIGHTS
FINANCIAL
株 in millions, except per share data)
(Unaudited:
Revenues
価
Net income:
バ米
Operating results
ブ Items impacting comparability
Total
国
ル
Earnings per diluted common share:
Operating results
との
Items impacting comparability
思Ｐ
Total
Ｅ
わＲpaid per common share
Dividends
れassets
水
Total
る from
準operating activities
Cash
(excluding working capital)
。と
Capital expenditures and equity investments
し
NYSE price range
て
High
株価のバブル度
2000年年次報告書
Low
Close December 31
PER 株価収益率（倍）
ＰＥＲ
2000
$100,789
1999
$ 40,112
$ 1,266
(287)
$ 979
957
(64)
893
1998
$ 31,260
698
5
703
1997
$20,273
515
(410)
105
1996
$13,289
493
91
584
$ 1.47
(0.35)
$ 1.12
1.18
(0.08)
1.10
1.00
0.01
1.01
0.87
(0.71)
0.16
0.91
0.17
1.08
$ 0.50
0. 50
0.48
0.46
0.43
$ 65,503
33,381
29,350
22,552
16,137
$ 3,010
2,228
1,873
276
742
$ 3,314
3,085
3,564
2,092
1,483
$ 90 9/16
41 3/8
83 1/8
56.5
44 7/8
28 3/4
44 3/8
29 3/8
19 1/16
28 17/32
22 9/16
17 1/2
20 25/32
23 3/4
17 5/16
21 9/16
37.7
28.2
23.8
23.6
資産の収益性
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
(Unaudited: in millions, except per share data)
Revenues
Net income:
Operating results
Items impacting comparability
Total
2000
$100,789
1999
$ 40,112
$ 1,266
(287)
$ 979
957
(64)
893
1998
$ 31,260
698
5
703
1997
$20,273
515
(410)
105
1996
$13,289
493
91
584
Earnings per diluted common share:
Operating results
Items impacting comparability
Total
$ 1.47
(0.35)
$ 1.12
1.18
(0.08)
1.10
1.00
0.01
1.01
0.87
(0.71)
0.16
0.91
0.17
1.08
Dividends paid per common share
$ 0.50
0. 50
0.48
0.46
0.43
Total assets
$ 65,503
33,381
29,350
22,552
16,137
Cash from operating activities
(excluding working capital)
$ 3,010
2,228
1,873
276
742
Capital expenditures and equity investments
$ 3,314
3,085
3,564
2,092
1,483
NYSE price range
High
Low
Close December 31
$ 90 9/16
41 3/8
83 1/8
44 7/8
28 3/4
44 3/8
29 3/8
19 1/16
28 17/32
22 9/16
17 1/2
20 25/32
23 3/4
17 5/16
21 9/16
資産の収益性
経結
営論 HIGHLIGHTS
FINANCIAL
(Unaudited: in millions, except per share data)
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
効
Revenues
$100,789
$ 40,112
$ 31,260
$20,273
$13,289
率income:
Net
Operating results
$ 1,266
957
698
515
493
がＲ
Items impacting comparability
(287)
(64)
5
(410)
91
Total Ｏ
$ 979
893
703
105
584
悪
Earnings
per diluted common share:
化Ａ
Operating
results
$ 1.47
1.18
1.00
0.87
0.91
は
(0.35)
(0.08)
0.01
(0.71)
0.17
し Items impacting comparability
Total 低
$ 1.12
1.10
1.01
0.16
1.08
て
Dividends
$ 0.50
0. 50
0.48
0.46
0.43
い下paid per common share
Total
$ 65,503
33,381
29,350
22,552
16,137
し
るassets
。て
い
る
Asset の
turning ratio
1.54
1.20
1.07
0.90
0.82
で
Return on Assets (Net operating income by Assets)
1.93%
2.87%
2.38%
2.28%
3.06%
、
2000年年次報告書

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