The University of Tokyo Global COE Program Nuclear Education and Research Initiative Study of the Impact of U.S.-India Nuclear Co-operation on the Global Nuclear Non-proliferation Regime Tsukasa YAMAMURA, Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) Department of Nuclear Engineering and Management, Graduate School of Engineering, University of Tokyo 1. Introduction It is understandable that the announcement of US-India nuclear deal on July 2005 has caused a lot of repercussion in light of the history of India’s isolation from global nuclear trade since its nuclear test in 1974. Critics argue that USIndia nuclear deal undermines the current NPT regime, the premise of which is the co-operation in the field of peaceful use of nuclear energy only with the states which have abandoned the pursuit of nuclear weapons. Supporters of the deal argue, however, that co-operation with India is justifiable from the viewpoint of nuclear non-proliferation as well in the sense that it might have advantage of bringing India into a broader nuclear regime including nuclear non-proliferation and nuclear disarmament. The point is how to ensure compatibility between nuclear non-proliferation and nuclear co-operation with India. In other words, on what conditions will USIndia nuclear deal be justified from nuclear non-proliferation perspective? 2. Chronology of the U.S.-India Nuclear Co-operation July 2005: Joint Statement between President Bush and Prime Minister Singh -Agreed with full civil nuclear energy co-operation March 2006: India’s separation plan was agreed December 2006: President Bush signed “Henry Hyde Act” into law July 2007: Negotiation of bilateral nuclear agreement was concluded 5. Nuclear non-proliferation regime and India 3. Documents to be analyzed (1) Draft U.S.-India Nuclear Co-operation Agreement (comparison with the agreements between US and other states) (2) India-specific safeguards agreement with IAEA (to be concluded) (3) Record of the discussion within the U.S. Congress (4) Bilateral co-operation agreements between India and other states, (if they are made publicly available) 4. Preliminary analysis of draft US-India Nuclear Co-operation Agreement Provisions of this Agreement deviate from the provisions in other bilateral agreements in several respects. Following might be possible contentious issues. Ambiguity on the termination of co-operation and the right of return in the event of nuclear test by India (Compatibility with Article 123 of the US Atomic Energy Act) US commitment of assurance of nuclear fuel supply (Is the US still committed to assurance of nuclear fuel supply even if India conducts nuclear test?) Programmatic consent to reprocessing and alteration in form or content of nuclear material Transfer of sensitive nuclear technology and sensitive nuclear facilities Broader Nuclear Regime Israel Current NPT regime NWS (Nuclear Weapon States) ? (4) (1) India (4) France US (3) UK (4) Model for the bilateral cooperation with other countries ? Russia ( India-specific 2) safeguards Japan Australia Other European States China Canada Other NAM States Iran Others Voluntary Offer Safeguards Agreement with NWS Pakistan Consensus is required to exempt India from NSG Guideline DPRK NNWS (Non-Nuclear Weapon States) Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement with NNWS IAEA NSG PP Convention UNSC1540 CTBT FMCT Various supplementary measures which support NPT regime
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