Presentation [PDF:1.3MB]

OECD-RIETI Special Session
Green Growth in Asia
アジアにおけるグリーン成長
Handout
OHASHI Hiroshi
Program Director and Faculty Fellow, RIETI
Professor, The University of Tokyo
大橋弘
RIETIプログラムディレクター・ファカルティフェロー
東京大学大学院経済学研究科教授
May 15, 2015
Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI)
http://www.rieti.go.jp
Green Growth in Japan:
Future Prospects
OECD-RIETI “Green Growth in Asia”
May 15, 2015
Hiroshi Ohashi
RIETI & the University of Tokyo
Reflection on Great East Japan Earthquake and Fukushima
(Report of the Electricity System Reform Expert Subcommittee, Feb 2013)
1. Confidence in nuclear power.
2. Risk arising from the dependence on
large-scale power sources.
3. Regional monopoly (i.e., the lack of
system to transmit electricity beyond
regions).
4. Inability for the households to choose
retail electricity companies.
5. Need for renewable energy.
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Power Sources, Energy Independence, and
Electricity Prices since 3.11
Primary Energy Supply in Japan (1953-2013)
Renewables, others
Nuclear
Hydro
Natural Gas
1973 Oil Crisis: Fossil fuel dependency was 94%
Coal
Coal
After the Oil Crisis, the dependency on the fossil fuel has declined to 79.9% The highest dependency after Great East Japan Earthquake: 92.1%
Oil
(%) in 2010
Sources: Total Energy Statistics and METI
* Renewable energy include; solar power (0.1%), wind (0.2%), geothermal (0.1%) and biomass (3.6%)
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Hydro
Coal
Oil
Nuclear
Renewables
¥25
Electricity Prices
¥20
¥15
¥10
Electricity Prices (¥/kWh)
Base‐load Electricity Sources
¥5
Data Source: “Overview of Electric Power Development” Agency for Natural Resources and Energy.
Electricity Tariffs include those from household and industrial demand. METI
5
Energy Balances and Self-Sufficiencies, OECD Countries (2012)
1. Norway
2. Australia
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Renewables
(geothermal, solar, etc.)
3. Canada 9. U.S.A
14. Great Britain
Hydro
Nuclear *IEA stats include nuclear as a primary energy source.
Japan’s Primary Energy Self‐Sufficiency Level (2010‐2012)
16. France
22. Germany
25. Spain
32. South Korea
33. Japan
34. Luxemburg
Source: IEA Energy Balance2014, and METI
“－” shows minimal level.
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Emissions
2010
2011
2012
2013
Total Greenhouse Gas Emissions
(milion ton-CO2)
1,286
1,337
1,373
1,395
CO2 Emissions From Electricity
Generation * (million ton-CO2)
374
439
+65
486
(Comparison to 2010)
* Emission from general electric power companies.
+112
484
(Comparison to 2010)
+110
(Comparison to 2010)
* 2013 figures are preliminary results. (Million tons‐CO2)
1400
1200
Non Energy Related Green Gas Emission (5.5gas)
1000
800
CO2 Emissions from Energy Production
600
(Comparison to 2010)
400
200
+65
(Comparison to 2010)
(Comparison to 2010)
+110
+112
CO2 Emissions From Electricity Generation
0
7
2010
2011
2012
2013
Created from the following sources: Total Energy Statistics, Environment Action Program (The Federation of Electric Companies in Japan), The Greenhouse Gas Emission Statistics (Ministry of the Environment), and METI
Green Growth
Renewable Energy Sources
(as of April 2015)
Pre-FIT
(～June 2012)
Post-FIT
（Jul 2012 ～Nov 2014)
Total Operating Capacity*
Total Operating Capacity
Total Capacity Approved
Solar PV
(residential)
4.7 GW
2.80 GW
3.34 GW
Solar PV
(non-residential)
0.9 GW
11.76 GW
66.88 GW
Wind
2.6 GW
0.22 GW
1.43 GW
Mid- to Small-sized Hydraulic
9.6 GW
33 MW
340 MW
Biomass
2.3 GW
0.122 GW
1.48 GW
Geothermal
0.5 GW
1 MW
10 MW
Total
20.6 GW
14.931 GW
73.49 GW
* Values are approximate.
Source: METI
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Solar Power: Total Capacity
GW
80
Operating Capacity
Capacity Approved
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
Jul 12
10
Sep 12
Nov 12
Jan 13
Mar 13
May 13
Jul 13
Sep 13
Nov 13
Jan 14
Mar 14
May 14
Jul 14
Sep 14
Nov 14
Source: METI
Solar Power
(cited from Basic Energy Plan, 2014)
• Small and medium-scale solar power reduces the burden on main grids and
it can be used as an emergency power source.
• Generation cost of solar power is high, and power output is unstable.
Therefore, further technological innovation is necessary.
• In the mid- to long-term, cost reduction is expected to promote the
introduction of solar power based on its position as an energy source which
complements peaking demand in daytime hours in the distributed energy
system.
→ Both merits and drawbacks exist in the promotion of solar power.
Simulation analyses would be very helpful in policy making when
quantifying the tradeoff.
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Simulation Study 1:
Effects of Penetration for Solar Energy on Load
Winter Peak (January 18, 2013)
Summer Peak (July 27, 2012)
10,000 kW
10,000 kW
No solar power plants
Solar Power as of March 31, 20143 (14.6GW)
Solar Power with 71.3 GW
0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 No solar power plants
Solar Power as of March 31, 20143 (14.6GW)
Solar Power with 71.3 GW
0:00 4:00 8:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 Summary is available at RIETI (http://www.rieti.go.jp/en/papers/contribution/ohashi/08.html)
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Simulation Study 2:
“Mothballing”
万kW
10,000 kW
1,600
1,400
1,200
165 11 1,000
261 286 254 143 178 40 74 247 378 800
474 680 684 679 670 665 650 608 600
400
200
0
0時
2時
4時
6時
8時
10時
12時
14時
16時
18時
0:00 2:00 4:00 6:00 8:00 10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00
Solar power suppressed
太陽光の出力抑制
Conventional Hydroelectric
一般水力
LNG火力
LNG‐fired thermal
Power demand in Kyushu
九州エリアの電力需要
エリア外への送電
Power transmitted outside of Kyushu
Solar power generated
太陽光
Pumped storage hydro
揚水発電
石炭火力
Coal‐fired thermal
再エネ以外での発電量
Power from non‐renewables
20時
22時
20:00 22:00 Wind, Geothermal, and Biomass
風力・地熱・バイオマス
Oil‐fired thermal
石油火力
Nuclear Power 原子力
Power used to pump up to reservoirs
揚水動力
Summary is available at RIETI (http://www.rieti.go.jp/en/columns/a01_0418.html)
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Green Growth: future prospect
• Basic Viewpoint of the Energy Policy
• Energy Security, Economic Efficiency, Environment, and Safety (3E+S)
• A long-term supply-demand forecast
(“Energy Mix in 2030,” released in April 28, 2015)
• aims at 24.3 % of energy self-sufficiency
• reduces energy costs by 5 % (compared with 2013)
• reduces CO2 emission by 26.0% (compared with 2013)
• To do so, promote “stable” renewables (including geothermal, hydro, and biomass)
• Require drastic innovation to reduce installation costs for solar and wind powers
• Need credible studies to obtain an in-depth understanding as to how green growth leads to job
creation and economic growth.
• short-run stimulus effect of green energy investment, relative to other stimulus policies;
• the quality of the jobs created in the long run; or
• the ability of governments to make strategic investments that lead a sustainable growth sector. Etc..
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Thanks for your attention

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