1 Institution Model Name length of ctrl run (yr) CSIRO

1
Institution
Model Name
CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial
Research Organisation, Australia), and BOM
(Bureau of Meteorology, Australia)
Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological
Administration
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and
Analysis
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per I Cambiamenti
Climatici
Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques
/ Centre Europeen de Recherche et Formation
Avancees en Calcul Scientifique
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
Organization in collaboration with Queensland
Climate Change Centre of Excellence
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
ACCESS1-0
length
of
ctrl run (yr)
500
bcc-csm1-1
500
CanESM2
996
CCSM4
CMCC-CMS
500
500
CNRM-CM5
850
CSIRO-Mk3-6-0
500
GFDL-ESM-2G
GFDL-ESM-2M
GISS-E2-R
HadGEM2-CC
HadGEM2-ES
500
500
550
241
584
inmcm4
IPSL-CM5A-MR
MIROC-ESM
500
300
531
MPI-ESM-LR
MRI-CGCM3
NorESM1-M
NorESM1-ME
1000
500
501
251
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
Met Office Hadley Centre (additional
HadGEM2-ES realizations contributed by
Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais)
Institute for Numerical Mathematics
Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and
Technology, Atmosphere and Ocean Research
Institute (The University of Tokyo), and National
Institute for Environmental Studies
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
Meteorological Research Institute
Norwegian Climate Centre
Table S1: CMIP5 model runs used in the study. From each model, the runs historical r1i1p1 and rcp45 r1i1p1 were used as well as the piControl r1i1p1 simulations. The
length of the control simulations is given in the last column.
2
ACCESS1−0
bcc−csm1−1
CanESM2
CCSM4
CMCC−CMS
CNRM−CM5
CSIRO−Mk3−6−0
GFDL−ESM2G
GFDL−ESM2M
GISS−E2−R
HadGEM2−CC
HadGEM2−ES
inmcm4
IPSL−CM5A−MR
MIROC−ESM
MPI−ESM−LR
MRI−CGCM3
NorESM1−M
NorESM1−ME
0
10
20
30 40 50 60 70
standard deviation (mm)
80
90
Figure S1: Temporal standard deviation of sea surface height found in control
simulations for all models used in this study.
3
ACCESS1−0
bcc−csm1−1
CanESM2
CCSM4
CMCC−CMS
CNRM−CM5
CSIRO−Mk3−6−0
GFDL−ESM2G
GFDL−ESM2M
GISS−E2−R
HadGEM2−CC
HadGEM2−ES
inmcm4
IPSL−CM5A−MR
MIROC−ESM
MPI−ESM−LR
MRI−CGCM3
NorESM1−M
NorESM1−ME
0
1
2
3
4
5
95th percentile (mm/yr)
6
7
Figure S2: 95th percentile of 20-yr running trends (mm/yr) in sea surface height
computed from control simulations.
4
ACCESS1−0
bcc−csm1−1
CanESM2
CCSM4
CMCC−CMS
CNRM−CM5
CSIRO−Mk3−6−0
GFDL−ESM2G
GFDL−ESM2M
GISS−E2−R
HadGEM2−CC
HadGEM2−ES
inmcm4
IPSL−CM5A−MR
MIROC−ESM
MPI−ESM−LR
MRI−CGCM3
NorESM1−M
NorESM1−ME
10
20
30
40 50 60 70
time span (yrs)
80
90
100
Figure S3: Record length (in yrs) needed to detect a forced linear trend in sea surface
height for time series starting in 1990 for all individual models.
5
%
80oN
50
40oN
30
0o
10
−10
o
40 S
−30
o
a)
80 S
o
o
120 W 60 W
o
0
o
−50
o
60 E 120 E
%
80oN
40oN
0o
40oS
80oS
b)
120oW 60oW
0o
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
60oE 120oE
Figure S4: a) Change in background variability defined as the difference between the
temporal standard deviation in the control and detrended RCP4.5 simulations. The
multi-model mean of the percentage of the change with respect to the control simulations
is shown. Blue/red color indicate a decrease/increase of background variability in the
RCP4.5 simulations with respect to the control simulations. b) Uncertainty defined as
the multi-model standard deviation of the difference shown in a).
6
yrs
100
90
80
a) 1950
b) 1970
70
60
50
40
30
20
c) 1990
d) 2010
10
Figure S5: Multi model mean of record length (in yrs) needed to detect a forced linear
trend for time series starting in a) 1950, b) 1970, c) 1990 and d) 2010, respectively.
Tagged regions are regions where not all models detect a forced trend that was distinct
from internal variability. The adjusted multi-model mean global steric height is used
as historical global steric height change. The black contour line presents the time span
needed to detect a forced trend by 2014.

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