WKSI Morning Brief - Woori Korindo Securities

Monday
December 29, 2014
Weekly Summary
Weekly
JCI Weekly Data
Chg
Volume (bn shares)
Value (IDR tn)
Market Cap (IDR tn)
Listed Companies
Active Stocks
P/E (avg)
P/B (avg)
(Dec 22 - Dec 24)
5,166.98
22.83 pts (0.43%)
32.93
21.84
5,163
506
428
18.21
2.18x
Foreign Transaction
(IDR bn)
Buy
Sell
Net Buy (Sell)
7,426
-10,777
-3,351
JCI
Gainers
AGRS
BPFI
CNKO
ARTA
BBNP
Indexes Weekly Performance Recap
Global Indexes Last 2 Weeks Performance
Weekly Top Gainers & Losers
%
68.18%
50.00%
28.95%
25.93%
24.86%
Losers
INVS
INDS
BORN
IMPC
HOME
%
-34.07%
-28.57%
-15.25%
-14.81%
-14.70%
JCI
Weekly Top Volume & Top Value
Top. Vol
MTFN
BWPT
BUMI
SIAP
CPRO
Mn sh.
4,970
2,137
1,769
1,614
1,606
Top. Val
EMTK
MTFN
BWPT
SIAP
TLKM
Bn IDR
4,799
875
855
710
693
Source: IDX
Contents
Source: Bloomberg
Global Market Summary:
Santa Rally
With the exception of India's Sensex and Thailand's SET weekly downfall, last holiday
week results were remained positive for most of major stock indices although a lot
of indexes' gains were slowing down compare to the significant rally a week before
that. South East Asian (SEA) market however were in the spotlight, three of SEA's
main indices, KLSE, STI and JCI, managed to reverse losses on the week before, and
ended with handsome gains, slightly contrast with other's deceleration.
Global market remains positive as suggested by holiday season's bullish trend
around the end of 2014 although last week's global trading volumes were somewhat
quiet. Equity markets started the week on Monday, December 22 on a positive note.
In the US, the S&P 500 Index ended with another record high although volume is
somewhat light, as investors appeared to be positioning for a so-called "Santa rally".
Market still supported by several drivers such as stronger-than expected 3Q 2014
GDP result and the Fed's pledge about being "patient" on interest rates.
Page
Summary
Global Stock Market Weekly
IDX Market Recap
JCI Technical
Weekly Stock Picking
Macro News
Company News
Global Econ Calendar
Gov’t Bond Yield & Auction
1
1
3
5
6
7
8
9
11
Global Market Recap
US Market
US robust economic data results last week has pushed US major indices to rose higher with Dow Jones on the lead with 1.40% gain (w/w) at 18,053.71. US indexes were
primarily drove higher led by technology stocks' rally. The view on US economy and
earnings in 2015 stays positive, as the economy (as well company earnings) are expected to grow at modest rate which in turns will boost equity price higher.
Continued on next page
Please see important disclaimer on the last page
PT Woori Korindo Securities Indonesia — Weekly Report
Page 11
Global Market Recap
USA
US economic recovery continues to picks up, projecting a higher accelerating pace,
with 3Q 2014 GDP (final revision) stood at 5.0%, the highest pace since 2003. The
level has exceeded consensus estimate at 4.30%. Despite evidence of slowing
growth in the fourth quarter, economists predict ongoing expansion in 2015, fueled
by the country’s strong labor market and lower gasoline prices.
Job market continues to show better than expected result, initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 9,000 to 280,000 last week, and more importantly, the fourweek average of claims fell 8,500 to 290,250, indicating continued improvement in
the labor market. AAA reported that the average US price per gallon of regular gasoline fell to USD 2.38 as of December 22, the lowest price since May 2009.
European Market
Europe
European markets took off to a good start on Monday, but turned lukewarm through
the end of week trading day as European market closed for boxing day. Negative
sentiment came from the weakened Euro against the USD which limited further rallies. Germany's DAX became the weekly top gainer compare to two other benchmarks with weekly gain of 1.38% (w/w) to end at 9,922.11.
Asian Market
Asian stock indexes ended positive last week with the exception of India's Sensex (0.48% w/w) and Thailand's SET (-0.26%). Malaysia's KLSE index came out as weekly
top gainer with 2.82% gain (w/w).
ASIA
Japan's Nikkei index however continue to show a strong performance last week with
1.12% weekly gains, continuing the momentum from the previous week. Investors
expect Japan to introduce USD 29 billion in targeted stimulus measures, including
subsidies and vouchers for low-income households that are intended to boost consumption in regional economies. The government is also seeking to rejuvenate the
housing market by lowering the mortgage rates offered by its home loan agency.
PT Woori Korindo Securities Indonesia — Weekly Report
Page 22
Indonesian Market Recap
What’s Happened to JCI Last Week?
JCI ended last week trading with a modest gain of 0.43% at 5,166.98 on Wednesday,
December 24 with relatively quiet trading volume for the week. The market closed
through the weekend after opened from Monday to Wednesday.
JCI had started the week with a weak opening on Monday, December 22 as majority
of sectors was under pressure, led by Agriculture and Property sector which experienced profit taking. Approaching Christmas holiday, foreign investors' outflow also
continued depressed JCI level before it could rebound on Wednesday, December 24.
Based of sector perspective, a lot of sector indexes began to experienced bullish reversal on the second trading day (Tuesday) led by Miscellaneous Industry and rebound on Property sector due to the rights issue news from construction SOC (ADHI
and WSKT). Miscellaneous Industry sector came out as top gainer with 1.23% gain
(w/w) while Agriculture became the lagging sector with -1.23% losses (w/w).
JCI & Foreign Net Transaction, since 1st week of December 2014
Source: IDX
Last week, foreigners recorded IDR -3.35 trillion capital outflow from the IDX, quite
big enough. But if we combined the total net transaction since early December, the
figures will ballooned to IDR 10.36 trillion net sell transaction value.
JCI Last Week’s Sector Performance
Source: IDX
PT Woori Korindo Securities Indonesia — Weekly Report
Page 33
JCI For the Week: Technical Perspective
JCI |End year rally
Last week, JCI move slightly above our last week support range. For this week we
estimate JCI to move upward toward 5200 level. We maintain our support and resistance range from last week at support range 5104-5124 and resistance range
5207-5219. We see white candlestick pattern on last week confirmed previous bullish hammer candlestick.
JCI Weekly Chart
Source: WKSI Reseach
Support
Resistance
: 5,104—5124
: 5,207—5,219
JCI can rebound from MA20 week line or middle Bollinger band line. MACD line is
moving flat but its histogram is keeping moving upward. While RSI is moving flat on
center line, Stochastic and William’s %R indicators are moving flat near overbought
area.
We set our support range between 5104 – 5124 by looking on long black candlestick
opening price on first week of October and November. We also set resistance range
between 5207 – 5219 by looking on last two weeks candlestick high and opening
price of long black candlestick on last week of September. We hope investor can
wisely gain from year end and year open rally.
PT Woori Korindo Securities Indonesia — Weekly Report
Page 44
Weekly Stock Picking
ACES—PT Ace Hardware Indonesia,Tbk
Trading on Bottom Reversal
Range 770-820
Previous 785
Weekly Chg. +3.3%
YTD Return +33.05%
We recommend ACES as we see white
candlestick after hammer candlestick,
indicating confirmed bullish reversal
pattern. Price was having downtrend
since September. MACD histogram indicator has moved upward consistently,
even though price was still under pressure. MACD line is also ready to have
golden cross.
Stochastic, RSI, and William’s %R indicators are on oversold area and ready to leave oversold
area. We set our support level at 770 by looking middle level of last week body of candlestick
and resistance level at 820 by looking on previous resistance on minor sideways pattern.
ASRI—PT Alam Sutera Realty
Tbk.
Buy on weakness
Range 520-575
Previous 540
Weekly Chg. +3.8%
YTD Return +25.58%
We recommend ASRI as we see bullish
harami candlestick pattern, indicating
bullish reversal potential. After price set
highest price at 605 level, then price declined in two weeks. Using Fibonacci retracement, on 38.2% and 50.0% level,
price decline has stopped. In addition,
price also can maintain its position above
We set our support and resistance range by looking on long black candlestick on two weeks
before. We set support at 520 and resistance range 575. RSI and William’s %R indicators are
rebound and moving upward again. We recommend investor to buy on weakness near our
support range.
PT Woori Korindo Securities Indonesia — Weekly Report
Page 55
News Recap
Macro & Sector News
12/26/2014
Jakarta Post
Macro
Starting next year, gov't uses fixed fuel subsidy
The government has decided to implement a fixed fuel subsidy scheme beginning
next year, the government has previously considered a plan to use such a
scheme beginning next year to safeguard the state budget from unwanted fluctuations in the US dollar and crude oil prices that could threaten the fiscal balance. At the same time the government wants to allow people to pay less for
fuel, if the price of crude oil in the world’s market declines. Government officials
have earlier said that the fuel subsidy would be fixed at between IDR 1,000 (8
USD cents) and IDR 2,000 per liter. With the new subsidy policy, the fuel prices
will be regularky adjusted depending on the fluctuations of crude oil prices in the
international market and the exchange rate of rupiah against the US dollar.
12/24/2014
Jakarta Post
Capital Market
Back-up system for brokerage firms launched
The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) has officially implemented an official back-up
system for all brokerage firms in the bourse to ensure the continuity of their
businesses during force majeure and other crises. The system, named the Business Continuity Plan (BCP), is a real-time IT facility that will help the firms to resolve problems and failures caused by disastrous events without disturbing their
Company News
12/22/2014
Jakarta Globe
ENRG
Energi Mega Persada Repays USD 200m Debt to Lower Costs
PT Energi Mega Persada Tbk (ENRG), an upstream oil and gas company that is
part of the Bakrie Group, has repaid more than USD 200 million in debt last week
as part of its refinancing efforts in the past year. ENRG’s outstanding debt
amounted to approximately USD 707 million with USD164 million in short-term
loans and USD 543 million in long-term loans at the end of December last year.
After last weeks debt repayment,ENRG’s outstanding debt stood at USD 504 million as of Friday, consisting of USD 151.9 million in short-term loans and USD352
million in long-term loans. Its debt to equity ratio has improved to 0.70x as of
September this year from 0.82x at the end of last year
12/22/2014
Jakarta Globe
META
Rajawali Corp’s Infrastructure Arm Hitches to 2 Japanese Toll Partners
PT Nusantara Infrastructure Tbk (META), a Jakarta-listed unit of Indonesian conglomerate Rajawali Corporation, sealed cooperation agreements with two leading Japanese toll road operators, Japan Expressway International (Jexway) and
West Nippon Expressway (W-Nexco). Through four subsidiaries of its holding
company, Marga Utama Nusantara, META controls four toll road sections
throughout the country: Bintaro Serpong Damai, which operates a 7.25kilometer section of the Bintaro-Serpong toll road; Jakarta Lingkar Baratsatu,
which operates a 10-km section of the Kebon Jeruk-Penjaringan toll road in Jakarta; and two Makassar-based units, Jalan Tol Seksi Empat and Bosowa Marga
Nusantara, that respectively operate 11.57-km and 5.95-km toll road sections in
Makassar, South Sulawesi.
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News Recap
Company News
12/23/2014
IDN
TELE
Tiphone obtains IDR 1.24 trillion loan facility
PT Tiphone Mobile Indonesia (TELE) obtains credit facilities from Standard
Chartered and the Dubai International Financial Centre, worth USD 100 million
(equals Rp1.24 trillion) signed on December 18, 2014 by the company and its’
subsidiaries. Most of the credit facility will be used to finance working capital
due to increased sales, which is in line with the growth strategy of the company and its subsidiaries. In addition, funds of the bilateral debt will be separately consolidated into one single facility, which is expected to reduce administrative barriers and improve the operational efficiency of the group.
12/23/2014
IDN
JSMR
Jasa Marga prepares bond payment of IDR33.75 billion
PT Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR), toll road operator and developer, prepares to make
their 34th bond payment priced at IDR 33.75 billion to bond trustee company,
PT Bank Mega Tbk (MEGA) for a bond issued in 2006 devoted to highway service and development. Jasa Marga Bond XII Series Q of 2006 charges an interest rate of 13.5% and values up to Rp1billion; which is continually paid every
three months. The due date for the 34th payment is January 5, 2015 to transfer agent, Indonesian Central Securities Depository (KSEI). Jasa Marga’s final
payment is due by July 2016.
12/23/2014
IDN
ICBP
Indofood CBP sets joint venture with Oji Holding Corporation
PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk (ICBP) cooperates with Oji Holding Corporation to form two joint venture companies, namely PT Indo Oji Sukses
Pratama and PT Oji Indo Makmur Perkasa. The establishment of two joint ventures was carried out on December 22, 2014. Indo Oji Sukses engages in the
marketing and distribution of paper diapers. The company was established
with paid-up capital amounting to IDR 8.75 billion, of which 67% paid by the
company and 33% by Oji Holding Corporation.
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Page 77
Global Economic Calendar: Last, Current, and Next Week
Last Week
Monday
22-Dec
USA
Hour
Event
Jakarta
10.00 PM Existing Home Sales (in USD mn)
Tuesday
23-Dec
GBR
GBR
USA
USA
USA
USA
4:30 PM
4:30 PM
8:30 PM
8:30 PM
8:30 PM
10:00 PM
Wednesday
24-Dec
USA
8:30 PM Unemployment Claims
Thursday
25-Dec
JPN
6:50 AM BOJ: Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Friday
26-Dec
JPN
JPN
JPN
6:30 AM Household Spending
6:30 AM Tokyo Core CPI
6:30 AM Retail Sales
Date
Country
Current Account (in GBP bn)
Final GDP
Core Durable Goods Orders
Final GDP
Durable Goods Orders
New Home Sales (in '000)
Period
Actual Consensus
5.21
Prev
m/m
Nov
4.93
q/q
q/q
m/m
q/q
m/m
m/m
q3 14
q314
Nov
q314
Nov
Nov
-27
0.70%
-0.40%
5%
-0.70%
438
w/w
w3 Dec
280
291
289
y/y
y/y
y/y
Nov
Nov
Nov
-2.50%
2.30%
0.40%
-3.50%
2.40%
1.20%
-4.00%
2.40%
1.40%
-21.1
0.70%
1.10%
4.30%
3.00%
461
5.26
-23.1
0.70%
-0.90%
3.90%
0.30%
458
Current week
Tuesday
30-Dec
USA
Hour
Event
Jakarta
10:00 PM CB Consumer Confidence
Wednesday
31-Dec
CHN
USA
USA
USA
8:45 AM
8:30 PM
9:45 PM
10:00 PM
Thursday
1-Jan
CHN
8:00 AM Manufacturing PMI
Index
Dec
50
50.3
Europe
GBR
USA
4:00 PM Final Manufacturing PMI
4:30 PM Manufacturing PMI
10:00 PM ISM Manufacturing PMI
Index
Index
Index
Dec
Dec
Dec
50.8
53.7
57.6
50.1
53.5
58.7
CHN
8:00 AM Non-Manufacturing PMI
Index
Dec
Date
Friday
2-Jan
Saturday
3-Jan
Country
Period
HSBC Manufacturing PMI
Unemployment Claims (in 000)
Chicago PMI
Pending Home Sales
e8
Actual Consensus
Prev
Index
Dec
94.6
88.7
Index
w/w
Index
m/m
Dec
w4 Dec
Dec
Nov
49.5
287
60.2
0.60%
50
280
60.8
-1.10%
53.9
Page 88
Global Economic Calendar: Last, Current, and Next Week
Next week
JPN
GER
Europe
GBR
Hour
Jakarta
8:35 AM
All Day
4:30 PM
4:30 PM
Final Manufacturing PMI
German Preliminary CPI
Sentix Investor Confidence
Construction PMI
m/m
m/m
Index
m/m
Dec
Dec
Jan
Dec
52.1
0.00%
-2.5
59.4
CHN
Europe
GBR
USA
USA
8:45 AM
4:00 PM
4:30 PM
10:00 PM
10:00 PM
HSBC Services PMI
Final Services PMI
Services PMI
ISM Non-Manufacturing
Factory orders
Index
Index
Index
Index
m/m
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Nov
53.0
51.9
58.6
59.3
-0.70%
Wednesday Europe
7-Jan
Europe
Europe
USA
USA
5:00 PM
5:00 PM
5:00 PM
8:15 PM
8:30 PM
CPI Flash Estimate
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Unemployment rate
ADP Non-Farm Employment Chg ('000)
Trade Balance (in USD bn)
m/m
m/m
m/m
m/m
m/m
Nov
Dec
Nov
Dec
Nov
0.30%
0.70%
11.50%
218
-43.4
Thursday
8-Jan
USA
CHN
GER
Europe
GBR
GBR
USA
2:00 AM
Tentative
2:00 PM
5:00 PM
7:00 PM
Tentative
8:30 PM
FOMC Meeting Minutes
Trade Balance (in CNY bn)
Retail Sales
Retail Sales
BOJ: Official Bank Rate
MPC Rate Statement
Unemployment Claims
m/m
m/m
m/m
m/m
m/m
w/w
Dec
Nov
Nov
Jan
Jan
w4 Dec
54.5
CHN
CHN
USA
USA
8:30 AM
8:30 AM
8:30 AM
8:30 AM
CPI
PPI
Non-Farm Employment Change ('000)
Unemployment Rate
y/y
y/y
m/m
m/m
Dec
Dec
Dec
Dec
Date
Country
Monday
5-Jan
Tuesday
6-Jan
Friday
9-Jan
Event
Period
Actual Consensus
0.50%
Prev
0.40%
0.50%
321
5.80%
Source: Forex Factory
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Page 99
Indonesia Gov’t Bond
Benchmark Weekly Yield Curve
Source: IBPA
Benchmark Information
TTM
(Years)
4.31
9.23
14.23
19.24
Benchmark
FR0069
FR0070
FR0071
FR0068
Wed, Dec 24
Yield (%)
7.708
7.833
8.184
8.261
Price (%)
Coupon
(%)
100.583
103.492
106.761
101.071
7.875
8.375
9.000
8.375
Benchmark Data
Maturity
Moody’s
S&P
Composite
FR0070
Mar 15, 2024
Baa3
BBBBBB-
Source: Bloomberg, IBPA
e 10
Page 1010
Disclaimer & Contacts
Research Team:
Reza Priyambada
[email protected]
Bagus Permadi
[email protected]
Agustini Hamid
[email protected]
Hendrik Panca
[email protected]
Raphon Prima
[email protected]
DISCLAIMER
This report, and any electronic access to it, is restricted to and intended only for clients of PT Woori Korindo Securities Indonesia
or a related entity to PT Woori Korindo Securities Indonesia. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to
be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy
any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not to be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. We
expressly disclaim any responsibility or liability (express or implied) of P.T. Woori Korindo Securities Indonesia, its affiliated companies and
their respective employees and agents whatsoever and howsoever arising (including, without limitation for any claims, proceedings, action,
suits, losses, expenses, damages or costs) which may be brought against or suffered by any person as a results of acting in reliance upon the
whole or any part of the contents of this report and neither PT Woori Korindo Securities Indonesia, its affiliated companies or their respective
employees or agents accepts liability for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise, in the report and any liability in
respect of the report or any inaccuracy therein or omission therefrom which might otherwise arise is hereby expresses disclaimed.
All rights reserved by PT Woori Korindo Securities Indonesia
PT. Woori Korindo Securities Indonesia
Member of Indonesia Stock Exchange
Head Office :
Wisma Korindo 7th Floor
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Indonesia
Telp: +62 21 7976202
Fax : +62 21 7976206
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Blok O No. 79 B-C, Pluit Penjaringan
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