Private Word - BNZ Private Bank

MAY 2014
Private Word
YOUR EXCLUSIVE QUARTERLY UPDATE FROM BANK OF NEW ZEALAND PRIVATE BANK
Welcome to the May
edition of Private Word
Art is the key theme of this issue of
Private Word – from collecting and
investing, to becoming a benefactor.
There are some Private Bank success
stories and an innovative way of keeping
better informed, plus opinion and
insight from our regular BNZ experts.
As always, if there’s anything else
you’d like to see, or you have any other
feedback, don’t hesitate to get in touch
at [email protected]. Enjoy.
Our experts are your experts
In the market.
In the know.
What’s hot? What’s not? And more
importantly why? Read Senior Analyst
Louis Nel’s expert commentary.
Donna Nicolof
Head of BNZ Private Bank
Page 3.
An insider’s view of
the world outside.
Discover the latest commentary
and insight from BNZ Chief
Economist Tony Alexander.
Page 5.
The art of investment.
According to the Wall Street Journal,
worldwide art auction sales totalled
US$12 billion¹ in 2013. Clearly art is
becoming a popular investment option
for many, but is it a safe bet?
Like property, it’s the tangibility of a
physical asset that appeals. Plus, owning
art is one of the few things that rewards
the eyes as well as the wallet. However,
there are risks. For every Warhol or
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Numbers and sense:
Expert analysis.
We look behind the numbers to
share expert opinion and analysis.
Analyst Andrew Thompson casts
an expert’s view.
Page 6.
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Frizzell that was snapped up years ago by a savvy collector,
many lesser works are worth less than the original selling price.
So how do you know what to buy – and when?
How to get started.
The art market can be highly complex, so the following simple
do’s and don’ts may help as you consider taking the plunge.
But remember, expert advice is a must, particularly on
significant purchases.
Do – Purchase from accredited dealers or auction houses.
Do – Check the provenance – verify the work’s origin
before you buy.
Do – Beware of stolen, forged or illicit goods. If in doubt,
do not buy.
Do – Research the artist, the market, the price.
Get independent advice.
Do – Theme your collection and buy one or two
significant works.
Do – Ensure your investment is properly stored and
maintained.
Do – Buy what you like – enjoying your art is a major
dividend and it may be on your wall for some time.
Don’t – Forget about insurance – make sure you are
adequately covered.
Don’t – Forget about the tax implications – is this a business
or private asset?
Investigating and researching the market and getting the advice
of an established dealer such as ART+OBJECT or an accredited
art consultant will pay dividends. They can let you know about
upcoming local and international exhibitions and recommend
galleries in your region.
Hamish Coney, Managing Director at ART+OBJECT
(artandobject.co.nz) believes the market is set for a period of
sustained growth and points to the rising trend of digital art and
photography as a great place to begin collecting, as prices tend
to be lower than more traditional mediums.
Bob McCay, BNZ’s former chief executive, and his wife Pat have
always had a passion for art. In fact Bob was one of those who
played a formative part in the creation of BNZ’s art collection in
the 1980s. Long-term collectors, the couple have bought pieces
they liked for their own personal pleasure rather than purely as
investments. As Pat McCay remarked “it’s really about the history
rather than as an investment. The more you get involved the more
you get interested”.
So is art for investment or pleasure, or both? Certainly the ‘x’
factor of investing in art is the undoubted enjoyment of owning
and collecting, and it is something which can become a lifelong
pleasure. And if you’re passionate about it and you choose wisely,
it could be a valuable addition to your portfolio. But because art is
such a specialist area, investing in it may not be for everyone. In
the same way you seek help from your Private Banker with your
investment portfolio, be sure to talk to a specialist so you go into
art investment with your eyes wide open.
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The Wall Street Journal, The Pros and Cons of Investing in Art, 14 March 2014.
NEWSBITES:
BNZ KiwiSaver Scheme given tick of approval.
The power of partnership.
Just a year after its launch and following a rigorous selection
The Otago Daily Times recently featured a story highlighting
process, the BNZ KiwiSaver Scheme has been selected as
the successful long-term management of the Otago Regional
a default KiwiSaver scheme by the Government. It is great
Council’s (‘Council’) $17.7 million fund¹. This result is part of
news for our customers as it is a ‘tick of approval’ from
an ongoing relationship with BNZ, which began in 1989.
the Government for us and the scheme. Through the BNZ
KiwiSaver Scheme we aim to help our customers ‘be good
with money’ and save for a better retirement.
Previously the Council had entrusted its investment portfolio
with an outside firm. However, as part of steps to overhaul
its processes and practices, this was due to be reviewed.
The relationship we have with the Council meant there was
an opportunity for BNZ Private Bank to assist it with its wider
investment needs.
“BNZ Private Bank was invited to review the Council’s
statement of investment policy and objectives (SIPO). Its
recommendations have helped us be fully compliant with
best practice fiduciary principles” says Wayne Scott, director
corporate services at the Council.
BNZ Investment Services Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of BNZ, is the Issuer
and Manager of the BNZ KiwiSaver Scheme. An Investment Statement is available
on www.bnz.co.nz or at BNZ stores. Neither BNZ nor any other person guarantees
interests in the scheme.
The SIPO sets out the objectives, policies and beliefs governing
decisions about investments in relation to the Council’s assets.
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“BNZ’s review of the SIPO was very comprehensive and it
Selwyn Smith, BNZ’s private banker for the Council, says:
reflects the Council’s position as a public entity, which is risk-
“Working closely with the Council has ensured a strengthened
averse”, said Wayne.
relationship, and our recommendations have helped the
BNZ was also asked to review the types of investments the
Council to put in place a robust governance platform.”
Council held in its portfolio and to clarify whether they were
The bulk of the Council’s cash is managed through a unique
likely to be appropriate for its rules of governance and the
platform², specifically developed by BNZ Private Bank for
local Government legislation guidelines at the time.
clients that have very large short-term investment needs. It has
enhanced the Council’s cash returns, significantly reduced its
in-house administration, and helps to ensure the Council can
meet the requirements of clearly-defined local body legislation.
Over the years, BNZ Private Bank has built up a wealth of
expertise in the area of fiduciary governance. We work with a
growing number of high profile institutional, non-profit, Iwi, and
charitable entities throughout the country to help ensure they
can meet their requirements under the Trustees Act, Charities
Act and local Government Act. Our Private Banking Team
works closely with these entities to understand their specific
needs and objectives and deliver tailored, successful, solutions.
The result of this process was that BNZ Private Bank became
an integral part of the Council’s advisory network and, in
2012, the Council made a decision to transfer its investment
assets to the BNZ Private Bank platform.
IN THE MARKET. IN THE KNOW.
What’s hot? What’s not? And more
importantly why? Read Senior Analyst
Louis Nel’s expert commentary.
The domestic equity market has been a stand-out performer
this year, with other global markets returning somewhat
lacklustre performances. Find out what’s been driving investor
sentiment and why New Zealand has been doing so well.
The first three months of 2014 saw global equity markets rise
modestly, as evidenced by the MSCI All Countries World Index,
which gained 1.0%¹ over this period. A notable performer was
the domestic equity market, which reached a new record high
and delivered a strong gain of 8.5%². With a small dose of risk
aversion setting in, it was not surprising to see bond yields fall
as some investors switched into lower-risk investments.
Emerging markets in particular have struggled during recent
months. Investors have been pulling their investment funds
out of these markets for a number of reasons: the US
Federal Reserve (‘Fed’) continued ‘tapering’ its monthly bond
purchases; political turmoil in many of these countries; the
slowing Chinese economy; and the fact that some have been
slow to introduce the necessary structural reforms within their
economies, so that growth is more sustainable.
As mentioned, the Fed has continued to taper its monthly bond
purchases by US$10bn a month (i.e. scaling back its policy
It’s all about the power of partnership.
Otago Daily Times, Woodhead happy with $17.7m in ORC’s account, 3 February 2014.
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²Multi Bank Deposit Scheme; suited to large institutional and charitable entities with
large cash balances of around NZ$20m.
of quantitative easing). As such, its bond purchases dropped
to US$65bn per month in February, and then to US$55bn per
month in April. At this rate the Fed is on track to complete its
‘tapering’ by the end of this year.
The Fed’s guidance on the timing of interest rate increases
has also changed as it has very little ‘wiggle room’ left as the
unemployment rate rapidly approaches the 6.5% threshold.
Instead, it has opted for a broader range of measures and has
stated that the first increase in interest rates could be around six
months after its bond purchases have ended. Therefore, we’re
probably looking at the Fed commencing its tightening cycle
during the second quarter of next year.
In March, tensions escalated between Ukraine and Russia
over Crimea (a territory officially under the control of Ukraine).
A referendum was held which saw the people of Crimea vote
in favour of accession to Russia. While this was formalised
by Russia and Crimea through the signing of a treaty, the
referendum is widely regarded as being illegitimate by many
countries. Russia’s actions are seen as a violation of the
sovereignty of Ukraine, and the US wants tough sanctions
imposed against Russia. The problem is that the European
Union relies on Russia for a third of its oil and gas. As such,
it wouldn’t want to impose sanctions on Russia which are
too harsh, as this may ultimately restrict the pace of its own
economic recovery.
An interesting development worth mentioning is that a small
Chinese solar energy firm defaulted on its debt in March. It’s
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noteworthy because it is the first corporate bond default in
China, and it marks a change in stance by its Government. Until
recently, last minute bailouts by the Chinese Government have
been a consistent theme, as it tries to support the growth and
development of its domestic bond market. However, the fact
that it has let this happen signals a greater tolerance by the
Government for corporate defaults going forward. We see this
as a good thing, as it raises awareness of risk among issuers
and investors alike. This in turn should encourage more prudent
behaviour, which benefits the financial system as a whole.
So why the strong returns from the domestic equity market
during the quarter? There were three reasons. Firstly, strong
economic growth should translate into higher earnings by
New Zealand companies. Secondly, recent political polls put
the National Party ahead, thereby limiting the prospect of a
regulation-prone Labour/Greens coalition coming into power
and overhauling the electricity sector. And lastly, geopolitical
tensions elsewhere in the world have amplified New Zealand’s
appeal as an investment destination. For the time being anyway,
New Zealand is very much a place in the sun as opposed to the
land of the long white cloud.
Source: Compiled by BNZ using information provided by Bloomberg Finance LP.
Total return in the currencies of the local markets.
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²Source: Compiled by BNZ using information provided by Bloomberg Finance LP.
Total return of the NZX 50 Index.
DID YOU KNOW:
Information on the go.
The old saying; ‘it pays to keep well informed’ still rings true,
yet managing to keep on top of what’s happening in the
business world is often easier said than done. One increasingly
popular solution that ‘time poor’ professionals are turning to is
business podcasts.
Whilst traditional media is great for daily news and current
affairs, podcasts are more in-depth and better suited to
multitasking. They give you the opportunity to decide exactly
what you want to hear and when. This flexibility makes them
perfect for the commute, while you’re at the gym, or any time
that suits you.
The other vitally important factor is, of course, content. BNZ has
been involved in what we believe to be one of the best regular
sources of information – The NZ Business Podcast. Focusing on
themes and insights that are up to date and particularly relevant
to NZ business, the podcasts are designed to support New
Zealanders in business by providing access to the wisdom and
experience of others.
Each episode, hosted by Paul Spain, (an entrepreneur and wellrespected TV commentator on technology and business topics),
spotlights one of New Zealand’s most successful and interesting
business leaders talking in a relaxed and informal environment.
The diversity of subjects is broad, and has included discussions
about specific business strategies, for example, online. Plus
they’ve featured personal experiences ‘from the top’ on
branding, business start-ups, doing business overseas and
other key areas of interest.
Recent guests have included; Sir Stephen Tindall (The Warehouse,
K1W1 fund, Tindall Foundation, KEA), Hamish Carter (Sir Peter
Blake Trust, Olympic Gold Medalist), Catherine Robinson
(Kiwi Landing Pad) and Chris Quin (CEO – Telecom Retail).
You can stream content from the NZBusinessPodcast.com
website onto your desktop, tablet or smart phone or subscribe
via iTunes. You can also keep current with the latest NZ
Business Podcast updates on their website or via Twitter
@NZ_Business, and on the BNZ LinkedIn page.
This is an exciting and developing area for our Private Bank
clients and we hope you can tune in regularly.
OFF THE WIRE:
Investing in all our futures – supporting the arts.
As a patron and sponsor of New Zealand art, BNZ has amassed
what is regarded as one of the best private collections in the
country. However, we understand the importance of making this
art available to the nation. That’s why many major items from the
collection can be viewed by the public via initiatives like Auckland
ArtWeek walks, as well as being on display across the country
in our 33 Partners Business Centres. BNZ also makes works
available for exhibition loan to galleries.
We also regularly support a number of arts-based causes and
bodies across the country. The opportunity to leave a lasting
legacy is one that appeals to many who are looking for an
opportunity to ‘give back’. For individuals or organisations,
charitable donations and legacies are two excellent ways of
supporting the arts (or any charitable organisation).
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Giving to the arts in this way has many benefits. You can be
sure your donations will go to supporting the types of art and
artists that are ‘near and dear’ to you, plus many different
people will get to enjoy it, both now and in the future. Not only
will you provide long term benefits to the community, but you
still have an element of control over which causes your gifts are
put towards. What’s more, the importance of charitable giving
to the community is recognised by the Government’s tax credit
policy, which means that for every donation over $5 made to an
approved donee organisation (and not exceeding the amount
of the donor’s taxable income), one third may be claimed by the
donor as a donation tax credit.
supports and encourages the development of portraiture,
helping institutions and individuals to find portrait artists for
commissions. A recent example is the portrait of Her Majesty
the Queen, unveiled by the Duke and Duchess of Cambridge
at Government House in Wellington during their visit to New
Zealand. The portrait was commissioned for the NZPG and is
by up-and-coming artist, Nick Cuthell.
Chris Milne, chairman at the Nikau Foundation adds to this;
“We manage named endowment funds which reflect our
donors’ myriad interests, some of which give exclusively to
the arts. On behalf of our donors, we’ve been able to fund an
art tutor for an organisation or portrait commissions for the
New Zealand Portrait Gallery’s permanent collection. We can
also fund named art scholarships.
Having an arts endowment fund with the Nikau Foundation
means the income will go every year, forever, to the arts, in
the donor’s name. Another benefit of giving through the Nikau
Foundation is that should a gallery or museum fail, the money is
not lost and will go to a similar cause”, says Chris.
BNZ Private Bank has close ties with the Nikau Foundation, a
unique charitable trust that attracts gifts, trusts and legacies and
invests them for the benefit of the Greater Wellington region.
Keith Ovenden, chairman of the New Zealand Portrait Gallery
(NZPG) can’t overstate the importance of charitable donations
to the gallery; “Without benefactors it simply wouldn’t exist. It’s
entirely funded by grants, corporate sponsorship and – most of
all – by charitable gifts from individuals.”
Founded in 1990, the NZPG is the repository of a steadily
expanding national collection of portraits which reflect the
history, diversity and culture of New Zealand. The Gallery
AN INSIDER’S VIEW OF THE
WORLD OUTSIDE.
Discover the latest commentary and
insight from BNZ Chief Economist
Tony Alexander.
Tony shares his views on where interest rates in
New Zealand are heading, now that the Reserve Bank has
started to raise official cash rates. He also looks at the key
drivers of New Zealand’s economy and what impact this
could have on our dollar.
New Zealand interest rates are on the rise and this is happening
well before any moves are expected by central banks in the
countries we mainly compare ourselves with. For instance, in
Australia, discussion is mainly centred on the lack of a need to
follow up two recent interest rate cuts with any more. In the United
States and United Kingdom, central bank leaders are at pains to
emphasise they do not intend raising interest rates anytime soon,
though the markets are of the view that rises are likely next year.
“The resulting income is distributed to charitable organisations
in accordance with the donor’s wishes, providing a simple,
effective and long-lasting way to give to local causes both now
and in the future” says Chris.
More details about the New Zealand Portrait Gallery,
its activities and how to become a benefactor can be
found at nzportraitgallery.org.nz or by email to
[email protected]. Plus find out more
information on the Nikau Foundation by visiting its website
at nikaufoundation.org.nz.
In Japan huge uncertainty remains regarding whether a recent
lift in growth and inflation will be sustained. In Europe, additional
policy easing is in fact expected, with inflation having recently
fallen to 0.5% compared to its target level of 2%.
At this stage, with what seems to be a never-ending run of
positive data on the New Zealand economy, we are forecasting
that the Official Cash Rate will reach 5% come the end of 2015.
The clear risk is that it goes higher. This has some obvious
implications for the New Zealand dollar, which historically tends
to rise as our monetary policy is challenged.
However this time around we feel that a lot of the good news
has already been factored into our dollar. With some of our
export prices easing recently, investors may want to be wary
of assuming that we are blindly on our way towards parity, first
with the Australian dollar, then with the US dollar.
But that does not mean the New Zealand dollar is cyclically
headed downward. That is because our currency tends only to
fall by tens of cents when economic conditions in our trading
partners massively deteriorate. Yet forecasts for growth outside
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of China are generally being revised upward, especially in the
UK and US. In China easing growth is likely to be reversed by
some new stimulatory fiscal and monetary policies.
Additionally, the growth spurt in New Zealand does not look like
a simple flash in the pan. In particular there is something quite
important investors need to consider. It is certainly true to say
that this time around borrowers will be more sensitive to interest
rate rises from the Reserve Bank than in past cycles. Many
borrowers have become used to the lowest interest rates since
the 1960s, most are more wary of debt since the global financial
crisis and, nearly three-quarters of borrowers are either on a
floating rate or a fixed rate mortgage with less than one year to run.
Given these factors one can make a strong argument for
interest rates not peaking in this cycle anywhere near past
peaks. However, while the current cycle includes extra interest
rate sensitivity, there is also extra interest rate insensitivity.
Consider one of the prime growth drivers in this cycle – the
rebuilding of Christchurch. As funding costs rise, this rebuild
NUMBERS AND SENSE:
EXPERT ANALYSIS.
We look behind the numbers to
share expert opinion and analysis.
Analyst Andrew Thompson casts
an expert’s view.
Interest rates are rising and history tells us this can be
a challenging time for fixed interest investors. Andrew
Thompson looks at some of the tools fund managers have
to navigate their way through this environment and why he
believes it’s still important to have an allocation to this asset
class within your portfolio.
Over recent years, bond yields have been slowly declining.
Amongst other things this has resulted from global central banks
cutting official interest rates, as well as other factors that have
affected the supply and demand of bonds; such as ‘quantitative
easing’ policies and investors opting for the relative safety afforded
by this asset class.
Against this backdrop, investors have enjoyed an extended period
of strong returns from fixed interest investments. However, we’ve
now entered an environment where bond yields are rising – both in
New Zealand and elsewhere in the world.
This trend is demonstrated by the yield on the longest-dated New
Zealand Government bond¹, which has risen from a low of 3.15%
in May 2013, to 4.49%² at the time of writing. Similarly, the yield on
the US 10-year Treasury bond has risen from a mid-2012 low of
1.46%, to 2.66%² today. It’s also worth noting that New Zealand
has recently become the first developed nation to begin raising
short-term interest rates, having recently increased the Official Cash
Rate (OCR) by 0.25% in both March and April, taking it to 3.0% at
the time of writing.
What this means for bonds
A rising interest rate environment is generally not ideal for fixed
interest investors because this results in rising bond yields,
which translates into falling bond prices. This inverse relationship
makes sense when you think about it; as bond yields rise, the
won’t slow down. The constraint on the speed of rebuilding is
red tape and the availability of resources, not financing costs.
The same can be said about the prolonged period of catch-up
house construction in Auckland, especially in the context of some
of the construction being driven by offshore funders who are
financing houses for offshore buyers who will rarely occupy them.
The same goes for the Government’s infrastructure surge and,
in the expanding dairy sector, the growth restraint comes from
the availability of land and dairy price forecasts, rather than
interest rates.
What this means is that investors should be wary of expecting
interest rates to start falling as soon as they stop rising. They are
likely to rise quickly to levels 2 - 3% higher than they are now,
then sit there for perhaps the next five years. That means better
returns for passive investors and also a sustained period of
support for the New Zealand dollar.
lower yield that an investor had effectively ‘locked in’ when they
purchased a bond is now less attractive than the yield that could
be ‘locked in’ on the purchase of a similar bond. However, it’s
not all bad news. While rising bond yields impact the mark-tomarket value of a portfolio today, they result in higher expected
future returns as the proceeds from maturing bonds are
reinvested at higher yields. Furthermore, while a sudden and
sharp rise in bond yields could dampen returns during the short
to medium term, a more gradual rise (as is expected in
New Zealand and globally over the coming year) should have
a more muted impact.
Tools that fixed interest fund managers can use
There are a number of levers that domestic and international
fixed interest fund managers can pull to mitigate the impact of
rising bond yields on the value of their portfolios.
Domestic fixed interest managers
Duration management: Duration is the sensitivity of a bond’s
price to changes in its yield. For a given rise in yields, a bond
with a shorter duration will see its price decrease by less than
a bond that has a longer duration. Therefore, in a rising interest
rate environment, managers will often shorten the duration of
their portfolios. Two key ways in which they can do this are:
a) changing the mix of bond maturities within their portfolios
towards shorter-dated bonds, and b) utilising interest rate
swaps, which effectively convert a fixed-rate exposure into a
floating-rate exposure (in this instance).
Security selection: An example of this would be to allocate away
from Government bonds and towards higher yielding securities
such as corporate bonds, in an effort to improve returns.
International fixed interest managers
As well as duration management and security selection,
international fixed interest managers have additional levers
they’re able to pull:
Greater choice: The availability of a significantly wider range
of security types and issuers increases diversification and can
improve returns by providing managers with more opportunities
to identify securities and sectors that are mispriced.
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Country allocations: The Barclays Capital Global Aggregate Bond
Index³ currently includes bonds issued in over 30 countries².
Managers therefore have the ability to allocate towards: a)
countries or regions considered to represent better value or
where interest rate fundamentals are likely to be more supportive,
and b) emerging market debt which can offer higher returns
(albeit with higher risk).
Currency: Managers can also overlay their views on the relative
attractiveness of different currencies to provide a potential source
of additional return.
What lies ahead?
While bond yields rose significantly last year, further rises in the
coming year are expected to be more measured. As such,
we expect the fixed interest asset class to generate slightly
stronger returns this year than it did last year. Additionally,
it’s worth bearing in mind both the diversification and certainty
of income benefits offered by this asset class, so maintaining
an allocation to fixed interest within your portfolio remains as
important as ever.
Maturing April 2023.
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SPOIL YOURSELF
You are invited to an exclusive viewing of New Zealand’s
best portrait artists.
The Adam Portraiture Award is New Zealand’s premier portrait prize.
So we’re really excited to host the 2014 Adam Portraiture Exhibition
within the BNZ gallery space in Auckland’s CBD, which will mark
the launch of ‘Art Week @ BNZ’.
‘Tim’ by Henry Christian-Slane; ‘June & Mt Taranaki’ by Marianne Muggeridge;
‘Self Portrait’ by Esther Deans.
Tours on Friday 30 May are exclusive to Private Bank clients. You’ll
be hosted by the director of the New Zealand Portrait Gallery, so
you’ll get first hand insights on the portraits and the artists.
It will be a fantastic opportunity to view this exhibition. Coming from
established and emerging contemporary artists alike, the portraits
range from scrupulously rendered photo realist likenesses to loose
_
interpretations of individuals – Maori and ethnic themes are also
strongly represented.
2
As at the time of writing on 28 April 2014.
3
A common benchmark used by international fixed interest fund managers.
Important information
This newsletter is solely for information purposes and is only
for use by existing BNZ Private Bank clients who are New
Zealand residents. None of the stories or recommendations
in this newsletter are personalised financial advice. We
recommend that you seek financial advice specific to your
personal situation and goals from an authorised financial
adviser. No representation or warranty is made as to the
accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made
in this newsletter. Neither Bank of New Zealand (BNZ) nor
any person involved in the preparation of this newsletter
accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the
use of, or reliance on, all or any part of this newsletter. Where
the information and recommendations in this newsletter
are provided by a specific author, the information and
recommendations are the personal views of that author and
do not necessarily reflect the views of BNZ. BNZ’s Qualifying
Financial Entity Disclosure Statement is available free of charge
from any BNZ store or bnz.co.nz
WE WELCOME YOUR FEEDBACK.
Please let us know about any suggestions you might have
for improving Private Word. Contact your Private Banker or
email [email protected]. If you are not currently a BNZ
Private Banking client, and would like to speak with one of
our Private Bankers contact us for a discreet obligation-free
discussion on 0800 477 077 or email us at privatebank@
bnz.co.nz. To find out more visit bnzprivatebank.co.nz.
If you’re interested in attending a viewing please contact us at
[email protected]. Places are limited, so book early to
avoid disappointment.
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