Interconnections Russia-China, Russia-Japan and

Energy Systems Institute, Irkutsk, Russia
N.I.Voropai, S.V.Podkovalnikov, D.A.Sokolov
Interconnections of
Russia with
countries of
Northeast Asia
in the framework of
possible electricity
unification
The study is being conducted by Energy Systems Institute of Siberian Branch of the Russian
Academy of Sciences in collaboration with Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology and
EN+ Group.
Projection of prospective electricity
demand for Northeast Asia (NEA)
countries and regions, TWh/year
Electricity demand in the region is expected to grow more than twofold for the considered period.
2
Seasonal electric load profiles
100%
100%
96,8%
96,7%
97,1%
96,0%
90,4% 91,7%
91,1%
91,9%
91,7%
94,6%
93,5%
95,1%
94,3%
91,9%94,0%
89,9%
87,7%
88,7%
84,8%
81,3%
North China
80,9%
Northeast China
71,7%
Nortwest China
Korea
Mongolia
Japan
65,5%
Siberia
Russian Far East
60,5%
Seasonal peak load
60,00%
Winter
Spring
Summer
Seasonal load profiles are very divers. In some countries they come in summer in other – in winter.
Autumn
3
Daily electric load profiles (winter)
95%
85%
75%
Mongolia
Korea
65%
North China
Northeast China
Japan
55%
Siberia
Russian Far East
45%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
hours (GMT)
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
4
24
Daily electric load profiles (summer)
100%
Mongolia
Korea
North China
90%
Northeast China
Japan
80%
Siberia
Russian Far East
70%
60%
50%
40%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
hours (GMT)
Divers load profiles, both yearly and daily, result in large capacity saving and economic benefits in NEA region.
This can be seen further.
5
Forecast of generating capacity
expansion, GW
2000
1500
1000
500
0
20102012
2015
2020
2030
2035
Russian Far East
Siberia
Mongolia
Korea
Japan
Northwest China
Northeast China
North China
Generating capacity in the region is expected to grow more than twofold for the considered period.
6
NEA generating capacity mix by
type of power plants, 2010-2012
GW
Hydro (conventional +
pumped storage)
67
56
121
Thermal (steam
turbine + combined
cycle + cogeneration)
Nuclear
650
Fossil fuel generating capacity is dominating in the capacity mix
currently. Conventional hydro is ranked second. Renewables follow the
nuclear.
Renewables (wind +
solar + geothermal)
7
NEA generating capacity mix by
type of power plants, 2035
GW
Hydro (conventional +
pumped storage)
500
Thermal (steam
turbine + combined
cycle + cogeneration)
165
Nuclear
142
1177
Fossil fuel generating capacity is still dominating but its share in the
capacity mix is decreasing for the considered period. Renewables are
ranked second. Their capacity is supposed to grow swiftly.
Renewables (wind +
solar + geothermal)
8
Scheme for potential power system
interconnections in Northeast Asia
This scheme is modeled and studied. Considered were base case
with no power system interconnections (as now) and case of full
integration when no constrains are imposed on power flows among
countries. Optimization expansion planning model ORIRES was
applied for the study.
9
Benefits for the power system
interconnection in NEA region
The main benefits for the entire NEA power system interconnection were calculated as difference
between the indexes for the base case and integration case. They are quite sufficient. For example,
capacity saving benefit is equal to three quarter of the current generating capacity of Republic of Korea.
10
Benefits of Russia-China power
system interconnection
18,7
20
18
16
14
14
12
10
8
6
5,3
4
2
0
Annuallized cost, $
Bln./year
Capital cost, $ Bln.
Installed capacity,
GW
Previously conducted studies for Russia-China, Russia-Korea and Russia-Japan power system
interconnections confirm the obtained benefits for the entire NEA region.
11
Capacity benefit of Russia-Korea
power system interconnection, GW
Separate
Operation of
EPSs
5,6
Interconnection
of EPSs
26,8
4,9
0
5
Russian Far East EPSs
18,9
10
15
20
North Korean EPS
25
30
35
South Korean EPS
Capacity benefit for Russia-Korea power system interconnection is about 8 GW.
12
Economic benefit of Russia-Korea
power system interconnection, GW
53,3
Investments, Bln.$
39
16,2
Annualized Cost,
Bln.$/year
14,3
0
10
20
Interconnected EPSs
30
40
50
60
Separate Operation of EPSs
Investment saving benefit for the Russia-Korea power system interconnection is estimated to be
about $14 Bln.
13
Russia-Japan power bridge
benefits
Capacity
saving, GW
1,6
Investment
saving, $Bln.
1
0
1
2
14
Conclusions
Electricity interconnections in NEA region
are supposed to bring about substantial
benefits for countries–participants
 Further more deep studies by international
teams are needed

15

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