A quick introduction to the Cumulative Effects Framework for BC To the Howe Sound Community Forum January 14, 2014 Leah Malkinson, CEF Project Manager Ministry of Forests, Lands, and Natural Resource Operations Outline 1. What is the Cumulative Effects Framework? 2. What are the outputs? - demonstration project examples 3. How will it be implemented in the Province? 4. Some questions about Howe Sound Defining Cumulative Effects “Changes to environmental, social, and economic values caused by the combined effect of past, present, and reasonably foreseeable future actions or events” • Increasing diversification of activities land base • CE assessment by project or sector • Inconsistent approaches across sectors unintended cumulative effects 3 The Cumulative Effects Framework What It Is • A strategic approach to assessing and managing cumulative effects •Periodic CEA over broad areas • Open information on the condition and trend of key values • Decision-support tools • Consistent policy and procedures What it Isn’t • A tool that makes decisions • Land Use Planning • Thresholds to automatically limit development The Cumulative Effects Framework Core Elements & Process Values & Objectives CE Assessment Decision Support Enabling Elements First Nations & Stakeholder Engagement Research & Monitoring Legislation & Policy Initial Values Initial Values Criteria for Selection Existing Objectives (Legal & Policy) Support for Aboriginal/Treaty Right • • • • • Coarse filter/represents nested values Spatially mappable Available data • • • • • Forest Biodiversity (old & mature seral) Riparian Condition Water Quantity and Quality Air Quality Priority Fish and Wildlife Species (e.g. caribou, mule deer, moose, marten, grizzly bear) Cultural Heritage Visual Quality Resource Capability (e.g. timber) Economic Wellbeing Social Wellbeing Broad Scale CE Assessment Broad Scale CE Assessment •Assessment relative to existing objectives for values Assessment of: • Current condition • Potential future condition - foreseeable future (5-10 years) - long-term scenarios (50-100 years) – as needed 8 CE Assessment: Potential Future Condition What are the cumulative effects of all foreseeable activities in the area? Clean energy – wind power Forestry Roads to access development 9 Merritt Example: Risk Mapping & Trends Risk to Value Mule Deer Habitat Risk Mule Deer Habitat Risk 2012 % MU's with Objectives Not Met High Mod-High Low-Mod Low 0.45 0.40 Trend: decreasing risk 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 Current Condition & Trend 0.15 0.10 Year: 2002 Mod-High Moderate Low-Mod Low % Sub-pop Unit with Road Density above recovery plan guideline High Year: 2012 Year: 2022 Grizzly Bear Population - Mortality Risk Grizzly Bear Mortality Risk 2012 Risk to Value Foreseeable Future 1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Otter Similkameen Tulameen Year: 2002 Year: 2012 Year: 2022 10 Merritt Example: Risk Mapping & Trends Risk to Value Risk to Visual Quality 2012 High 0.6 % MU's Exceeding Objectives Mod Low Temporal Trends in Risk to Visual Quality West Okanagan-Nicola Demo Project 0.5 Trend: Increasing risk 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Year: 2002 Mod-High Moderate Low Year: 2022 Temporal Trends in Water Quantity Hazard West Okanagan-Nicola Demo Project Peak Flow Risk 2012 0.4 % Watershed Units at High or Very High Risk Risk to Value Year: 2012 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 Year: 2002 Year: 2012 Year: 2022 North-West Example: Socio-Economic Values Social Wellbeing • • • • • • • Population - Change & Composition Education Attainment Employment Family Income Housing Community Participation Community Social-Ecological Economy Economic Wellbeing • • • • • • • Employment Labour Demand Labour Supply Economic Diversity Revenue to Crown Financial Capital Infrastructure Capital From Assessment to Management Risk to Value / Meeting Objectives High Management Approach Intensive Possible Management / Mitigative Actions • Strategic direction - New / revised objectives - Strategic planning • Common permit conditions • Mitigation Plan • Research/ inventory Low Flexible • Apply best practices / Streamline decision-making Contact Email: [email protected] Leah Malkinson, Project Manager, MFLNRO [email protected] Kai Elmauer, Project Coordinator, MFLNRO [email protected]
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