CENTREX METALS LIMITED RESEARCH NOTE Acquire, define and develop • Centrex Metals (CXM) has successfully implemented a business strategy of attracting foreign investment to develop early stage exploration assets in Australia. To date the Company has secured the support of two major Chinese steel producers for its iron ore assets in South Australia and one major Chinese partner for a base metals project in NSW. With $35m in cash, CXM is well positioned to maintain these assets and advance its new metals portfolio which will provide short, medium and long term value to the Company. As the Company is trading close to cash backing (Enterprise Value of $0.7m) with a proven track record in securing foreign investment, we believe the market is undervaluing CXM and its portfolio of assets. As a result we are initiating coverage with a Speculative Buy recommendation. 14 April 2014 Speculative Buy 12mth Rating RIC: CXM.AX BBG: CXM.AU M A$ A$m % Issued Capital Price Market Cap. Net Debt/Equity Cash A$m Matthew Trivett Analyst: Long-term assets - CXM has been focused on the development of its iron ore assets and infrastructure on the Eyre Peninsula in South Australia since 2001. In 2010 it successfully created joint ventures with major Chinese steel producers, Wuhan Iron & Steel (WISCO) and Baotou Iron & Steel (Baotou), to fund the development of two magnetite projects. CXM also owns 100% of a small hematite DSO operation and another magnetite project which has had some encouraging exploration results recently, which could lead to another joint venture agreement. • Good location with port solution - These magnetite Projects are located between 40km and 100km via slurry pipeline from ports and CXM has identified and developed a conditionally approved port solution at Port Spencer. The Projects are also located in an area close to large regional centres and relatively well endowed with infrastructure including roads and national grid power. • Looking for exploration success - CXM has built a portfolio of early stage exploration tenements in the Lachlan Fold Belt, NSW. The portfolio is prospective for base and precious metals with historical mineralisation evident at all prospects. CXM will endeavour to develop these projects in a similar fashion as it has developed its iron ore holdings. This will be done through conservative exploration expenditure to develop each tenement, prior to seeking foreign investment partner. CXM has successfully executed this strategy with the Goulburn Zinc - Lead Project by executing a Joint Venture agreement with the Shandong 5th Geo-Mineral Prospecting Institute. • Solid structure - All joint ventures are structured to have minimal impact on the Company’s cash reserves and financial structure. As the projects develop, CXM, with its JV partners, will look to raise the require capital at the project level. This should ultimately provide CXM with a portfolio of minority holdings in projects producing a number of commodities around Australia. Phone: Email: (+61 7) 3737 8053 [email protected] An investment in this company should be considered speculative and note assumptions employed are contingent on broader market conditions remaining buoyant. These can change at short notice. Recommendations are current at the time of publication. 12 Month Share Price Performance 0.16 2500 0.14 2000 0.12 Share Price • 0.10 1500 0.08 1000 0.06 • Catalysts – Over the next 12 months we envisage a number of significant catalysts for CXM including 1) Chinese approval and commencement of drilling on the Goulburn JV tenements; 2) Exploration success at Woolgarlo and Gundaroo; 3) Resource definition and JV agreement for Kimba Gap; 4) Baotou increasing its interest in the Bungalow JV to 50% and investing the additional $16m. 314.1 0.12 37.7 na 34.5 Volume ('000) Investment highlights 0.04 500 0.02 0.00 12 Months 0 RESEARCH NOTE – PATERSONS SECURITIES LIMITED All information and advice is confidential and for the private information of the person to whom it is provided and is provided without any responsibility or liability on any account whatsoever on the part of this firm or any member or employee thereof. 1 14 April 2014 Centrex Metals Limited Investment thesis Centrex Metals (CXM) has successfully implemented a business strategy of attracting foreign investment to develop early stage exploration assets in Australia. To date the Company has secured the support of two major Chinese steel producers and sourced $177m in foreign investment. This has placed the Company in a strong financial position with three iron ore projects, at various stages of feasibility, on the Eyre Peninsula in South Australia with a potential infrastructure solution. CXM is replicating this strategy in the Lachlan Fold Belt, NSW, by building a portfolio of early stage exploration tenements. The portfolio is prospective for base and precious metals with historical mineralisation evident at all prospects. CXM has already had some success with these assets by supplementing historical data with geophysical and geochemical studies. This has resulted in the successful execution of a Joint Venture agreement with the Shandong 5th Geo-Mineral Prospecting Institute (Shandong) on the Goulburn Zinc Lead Project. Once Chinese approval is gained, Shandong has agreed to fund $2m for the initial drill program to test a number of identified targets. We see value in the magnetite projects but also see them as capital intensive, long term prospects. CXM is well positioned with $35m in cash to maintain these assets and advance its new metals portfolio which will provide short to medium term value to the Company. As the Company is trading close to cash backing (EV of $0.7m) and has a proven track record in securing foreign investment, we believe the market is undervaluing CXM and its portfolio of assets. As a result we are initiating coverage with a Speculative Buy recommendation. Company overview CXM was incorporated on 23 March 2001 to explore for iron ore on Eyre Peninsula and listed on the Australian Securities Exchange in July 2006. From 2006 until 2010 CXM focussed its resources on the development of the Wilgerup hematite deposit. It became evident that the project was not of sufficient size (1.6Mtpa) to individually warrant a port solution, which would need in excess of 5Mtpa of throughput to be justifiable. In July 2010 CXM signed two very significant joint venture agreements with Chinese steel companies. Baotou Iron & Steel Group Company Limited (Baotou) signed an agreement covering the Bungalow tenement and Wuhan Iron & Steel (Group) Co. (WISCO) signed an agreement covering 5 tenements in south east of the Eyre Peninsula. CXM also has a joint venture pending with WISCO covering a 50:50 development of Port Spencer. The WISCO JV has commenced an expanded Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) that started in December 2013 with a new drilling program on the primary project, Fusion. The expanded PFS will use the existing cash reserves in the JV of $7m and, subject to continued positive economic modelling and land access, then the JV partners will contribute an additional $10m ($4m CXM and $6m WISCO) to take the project to the end of the PFS. The Bungalow PFS has been drafted and is now under technical review by Baotou. Baotou has the right to increase its interest in the project to 50% by the investment of an additional $16m. CXM expects to conclude negotiations on moving the project to this next stage by the end of the year. The Kimba Gap iron ore project is the latest project CXM is looking to develop. A drilling campaign is due to be completed this quarter which is expected to be adequate to define a JORC compliant resource in the subsequent quarter. This will provide catalyst for CXM to market the project to potential JV partners. More recently CXM has been looking further afield by acquiring tenements in the Lachlan Fold Belt, NSW. It has also used its relationships with its Chinese partners to enter another joint venture with the Shandong 5th Geo-Mineral Prospecting Institute over the Goulburn tenements. This joint venture has been executed and only requires Chinese regulatory approval to be formalised. CXM will continue to build its metals project portfolio to balance its longer term iron ore portfolio in South Australia. All joint ventures are structured to have minimal impact on the Company’s cash reserves and financial structure. As the project develops, CXM, with its JV partners, will look to raise the require capital at the project level. This should ultimately provide CXM with a portfolio of minority holdings in projects producing a number of commodities around Australia. RESEARCH NOTE – PATERSONS SECURITIES LIMITED 2 All information and advice is confidential and for the private information of the person to whom it is provided and is provided without any responsibility or liability on any account whatsoever on the part of this firm or any member or employee thereof. 14 April 2014 Centrex Metals Limited Projects Iron ore CXM has been focused on the development of its iron ore assets and infrastructure on the Eyre Peninsula in South Australia since 2001. In 2010 it successfully created joint ventures with major Chinese steel producers, Wuhan Iron & Steel (WISCO) and Baotou Iron & Steel (Baotou), to fund the development of two magnetite projects and a potential deep water bulk commodity export facility. CXM also owns 100% of a small hematite DSO operation and another magnetite project which has had some encouraging exploration results recently which could lead to another joint venture agreement. These Projects are located between 40km and 100km via slurry pipeline from ports and CXM has identified and developed a conditionally approved port solution at Port Spencer. The Projects are also located in an area close to large regional centres and relatively well endowed with infrastructure including roads and national grid power. Figure 1: Project location map Source: Centrex Metals Eyre Iron Joint Venture (CXM 40%, WISCO 60%) The Eyre Iron Joint Venture (EIJV) compromises a series of magnetite projects located in the southern Eyre Peninsula in South Australia. The JV transaction was finalised in 2010 and CXM transferred 60% of the iron ore rights across five of its exploration licences to WISCO in consideration for $78m paid over two instalments by mid 2011. WISCO also contributed the first $75m for exploration on the projects which have defined 894Mt in resources to date. The Fusion magnetite project is the flagship asset of the EIJV and has a current resource of 680mt, including 312mt in the measured and indicated categories. The project is located 35km north of the city of Port Lincoln and comprises numerous magnetite deposits spanning 50km of anomalous Banded Iron Formation (BIF) trend. Development of the project envisages construction of a centralised processing facility with magnetite concentrate pumped via slurry pipeline the proposed deep-water export facility at Port Spencer. RESEARCH NOTE – PATERSONS SECURITIES LIMITED 3 All information and advice is confidential and for the private information of the person to whom it is provided and is provided without any responsibility or liability on any account whatsoever on the part of this firm or any member or employee thereof. 14 April 2014 Centrex Metals Limited Figure 2: EIJV location map with high resolution aero-magnetic image Source: Centrex Metals Further development of the EIJV was defined under the Second Supplementary Deed in November 2013. Based on the mine and port scoping study completed in mid 2012, both parties agreed to proceed with an expanded PFS focused on exploring additional deposits within the flagship Fusion project. This will allow greater mining selectivity and reduce estimated mine production costs. The current process plant, logistics and infrastructure designs will remain relatively unchanged with the focus of the expanded PFS on mine design. The expanded PFS started in December 2013 with a new drilling program on the expanded Fusion project. The expanded PFS will use the existing cash reserves in the JV of $7m and, subject to continued positive economic modelling and land access, the JV partners will contribute an additional $10m ($4m CXM and $6m WISCO) to complete the PFS. The drilling program is building on 8 holes drilled in late 2012 at the Bald Hill deposit, a 9km magnetic trend adjacent to the existing Fusion mineral resources. The previous program identified the presence of magnetite BIF similar to those forming the project’s current resource. The Deed also established a simpler funding path to complete a Bankable Feasibility Study (BFS) if the PFS provided the incentive to proceed. In this case CXM’s contribution to the project would end and the project would be funded by either; 1. Listing the project on the ASX, with CXM diluting down from 40% to 30% in exchange for WISCO underwriting the listing. Centrex shareholders would likely receive an in-specie distribution of shares in the new vehicle; or 2. Centrex and WISCO seek another Chinese partner to fund the BFS but Centrex’s dilution would be capped so that it’s holding decreases no further than 30%. The new arrangement effectively isolates the Company’s cash reserves, removes some aspects of the original agreement such as the resource incentive payments payable by WISCO and CXM’s obligation to dilute ownership if 1Bt of Inferred Resources are not defined within the joint venture during the first 7 years. RESEARCH NOTE – PATERSONS SECURITIES LIMITED 4 All information and advice is confidential and for the private information of the person to whom it is provided and is provided without any responsibility or liability on any account whatsoever on the part of this firm or any member or employee thereof. 14 April 2014 Centrex Metals Limited Bungalow Joint Venture (CXM 70%, Baotou 30%) The Bungalow JV tenement is located immediately to the north of Cowell in the Northern Eyre Peninsula. The JV agreement was competed in June 2010 with Baotou able to earn up to 50% of the iron ore rights in the project through staged expenditure of up to $40m, of which $24m has been invested to date. Bungalow and the associated Minbrie prospects are located along an 18km long NE-SW magnetic trend. The geology is dominated by BIF, similar to that of the Middleback Range deposits of Arrium (ASX code: ARI). Figure 3: Bungalow deposit geological model and geo-metallurgical domains Source: Centrex Metals The PFS has been drafted and is now under technical review by Baotou. Baotou has the right to increase its interest in the project to 50% on the investment of an additional $16m. CXM expects to conclude negotiations on moving the project to this next stage by the end of the year. Wilgerup (CXM 100%) The Wilgerup DSO hematite project is located north of Port Lincoln. Prior to the WISCO and Baotou JVs, it was the main focus of CXM’s activities. The project is well advanced with mining approvals granted for a 1-1.5Mtpa operation over 7 years. CXM plans to develop Wilgerup in-line with Port Spencer. The hematite mineralisation was originally identified by WMC in the early 1990s, with subsequent work by Rio Tinto Exploration and Dampier Mining Limited defining a small hematite resource in two lenses. Subsequent work by SAIOG and CXM has defined a JORC Compliant Mineral Resources of 13.3Mt @ 57.7% Fe. CXM tried to expand the resource in 2013 with a drilling program that tested a number of ground gravity survey anomalies for DSO hematite. The drilling intersected magnetite iron mineralisation, however, no significant DSO was discovered. Kimba Gap (CXM 100%) The Kimba Gap iron ore project encompasses a 4.6km outcropping BIF approximately 60km west of Whyalla in South Australia. The project is located adjacent to Arrium’s existing hematite and magnetite iron ore mines. High resolution magnetic and gravity surveys, rock chip sampling and an initial diamond drilling program was used to define an Exploration Target for the project. The latest drilling campaign is expected to be completed this quarter which is expected to be adequate to define a JORC compliant resource in the subsequent quarter. Preliminary Davis Tube Recovery (DTR) results show the potential to produce a very highiron and very low-silica magnetite concentrate. Diamond core composites were ground to 38µm and DTR tests performed. The magnetic concentrate from this test work was then further ground to 25µm and a further DTR test performed. The test work results produced average final concentrate grades of >71% Fe and <1.0% SiO2 with overall head sample mass recoveries >30% (>95% mass recovery from the 38µm magnetic concentrate). RESEARCH NOTE – PATERSONS SECURITIES LIMITED 5 All information and advice is confidential and for the private information of the person to whom it is provided and is provided without any responsibility or liability on any account whatsoever on the part of this firm or any member or employee thereof. 14 April 2014 Centrex Metals Limited Port Spencer Port Spencer is a proposed multi-user deep water port facility on the east coast of the Eyre Peninsula. CXM has completed a PFS on the facility with an initial capacity of 20Mtpa with the potential to increase to 40Mtpa. However, development will only occur once the decision to mine has been approved at one of the Company’s magnetite joint ventures. A revised PFS envisaged the design and construction of a 200m jetty with a simplified point ship loader. The proposed facility utilises new CSL trans-shipment technology which has recently been implemented by Arrium at Whyalla which exports 7Mtpa. This new CSL transhipping technology comprises a self powered and self docking vessel capable of transporting 15kt of ore. The vessel utilises stern and bow thrusters which removes the traditional requirement for tugs, representing a significant reduction in capital and operating costs. The size of the trans-shipper also allow the vessel to be loaded in only 7m of water (low tide point at Port Spencer) before off-loading into a Cape-class vessel anchored approximately one nautical mile offshore in a water depth of ~23m. Transshipper vessel are versatile and capable of loading various sized cargo vessels as well as loading alternative commodities such a grain. The capacity of the plant can be increased by increasing the number and/or the size of the transhipping vessels. Figure 4: CSL transhipper in operation loading iron ore into a Cape-class vessel Source: Centrex Metals The Federal Government Department of Environment granted conditional approval for the facility in November 2013. The conditional approval covers all onshore and offshore facilities required for shipping access and the export of grain and iron ore. This also includes Federal Government approval of a desalination plant to provide process water to CXM’s proposed magnetite iron ore mines in the region. The desalination plant still requires State Government approval prior to development. Water quality monitoring for the State Government desalination plant approval application is close to completion. RESEARCH NOTE – PATERSONS SECURITIES LIMITED 6 All information and advice is confidential and for the private information of the person to whom it is provided and is provided without any responsibility or liability on any account whatsoever on the part of this firm or any member or employee thereof. 14 April 2014 Centrex Metals Limited Base and Precious metals CXM has built a portfolio of early stage exploration tenements in the Lachlan Fold Belt, NSW. The portfolio is prospective for base and precious metals with historical mineralisation evident at all prospects. CXM will endeavour to develop these projects in a similar fashion as it has developed its iron ore holdings. This will be done through conservative exploration expenditure to develop each tenement prior to seeking foreign investment partner. CXM has successfully executed this strategy with the Goulburn Zinc - Lead Project by executing a Joint Venture agreement with the Shandong 5th Geo-Mineral Prospecting Institute (Shandong). Figure 5: : Project location map Source: Centrex Metals Goulburn Joint Venture The Goulburn Zinc – Lead project comprises of two tenements located in the Lachlan Fold Belt, approximately 20km south of the town of Goulburn. The tenements comprise an area of 275 km2 with a number of prospects containing volcanic hosted massive sulphide (VHMS) and skarn styles of mineralisation. Geophysical mapping of the project has shown promising conductor targets located on the edge of a major gravity high adjacent to historically defined zinc, lead and copper mineralisation. These conductor targets will be tested in an initial drilling campaign once the JV has been given Chinese approval. In 2013 CXM and Shandong signed a joint venture agreement where Shandong can earn a 35% interest in the project by spending $2m. Shandong has further options to earn up to 80% by funding a project through to production should a deposit be defined. Final approval from the Chinese Government expected to be granted in the near future. RESEARCH NOTE – PATERSONS SECURITIES LIMITED 7 All information and advice is confidential and for the private information of the person to whom it is provided and is provided without any responsibility or liability on any account whatsoever on the part of this firm or any member or employee thereof. 14 April 2014 Centrex Metals Limited Figure 6: Gravity contours and geological units Figure 7: Location Map Source: Centrex Metals Source: Centrex Metals Gundaroo (gold/base metals – NSW) The Gundaroo project is located 10km west of the Goulburn Joint Venture. The project covers an area of 280km2 following a structural corridor containing historically mined prospects. The project area is thought to be prospective for intrusion-related gold mineralisation and during 2013 a high-resolution magnetic and radiometric geophysical survey was completed over the southern half of project. The survey showed a number of previously unidentified significant structural trends in close proximity to a known major felsic body. This prompted CXM to conduct a stream sediment geochemical program over the southern half the project. A total of 245 stream sediment sample points were taken and analysed for both path finder elements and gold. The assay results have identified 9 target areas of gold anomalism for further evaluation. Detailed mapping and shallow drilling will be used to further prioritise the targets. Woolgarlo (gold – NSW) The Woolgarlo project is the third and latest tenement granted to CXM. It is located within the Lachlan Fold Belt, 10km west of Yass, covering an area of 281km2 and hosting a number of historical gold prospects. Historical exploration suggests that the Mt Mylora prospect to the north of the tenement represents the base of an epithermal system, and the Sugar Bag prospect to the south of the tenement the top of an epithermal system. CXM considers that there is potential for the Mt Mylora and Sugar Bag prospects to form part of a broader Pajingo-style epithermal gold system. CXM has completed a high-resolution airborne magnetic and radiometric survey to define prospective demagnetised structures and will follow this in the near future with a stream sediment geochemical program within the magnetised structure. RESEARCH NOTE – PATERSONS SECURITIES LIMITED 8 All information and advice is confidential and for the private information of the person to whom it is provided and is provided without any responsibility or liability on any account whatsoever on the part of this firm or any member or employee thereof. 14 April 2014 Centrex Metals Limited Corporate structure Centrex Metals (ASX: CXM) is listed on the Australian Securities Exchange. There are 314.1m shares, 4.5m performance rights and 0.8m options on issue, which derives a current market cap of $36.1m. The Company received $78m in 2010 from the JV agreement with WISCO. Since then it has paid tax and two fully franked special dividends and currently has approximately $34.5m in cash of which $28.6m is uncommitted and the remaining $5.9m is committed to tax payable and CXM’s commitment to completing the expanded PFS on the EIJV. Figure 8: Substantial Shareholders Shares (m) % South Cove Ltd 80,876,005 25.79 Wugang Australian Resources Investment Pty Ltd 40,399,599 12.88 Baotou Iron & Steel 21,900,000 6.98 HSBC Custody Nominees 17,968,624 5.73 SEL Holdings Ltd 16,198,000 5.17 Source: Bloomberg Board & Management Chairman - Mr David Klingberg, AO Mr Klingberg has 34 years’ experience as a professional engineer including 10 years as CEO with Kinhill Limited. He was Chancellor of the University of South Australia for 10 years, retiring in 2008. Mr Klingberg is a director of ASX listed companies Codan Limited and E&A Limited. He was a director of Snowy Hydro Limited and former Chairman of Barossa Infrastructure Limited and the Premier’s Climate Change Council. He is currently a member of the State Government Board of Invest SA and a Patron of the Cancer Council of South Australia and the St Andrew’s Hospital Foundation. Chief Executive Officer - Mr Ben Hammond Mr Hammond is a geologist with an MBA who commenced his employment at CXM in December 2007. His roles have spanned business development, project management, business improvement, mine geology and exploration. Prior to this he spent his career in bulk commodities with BHP Billiton. Independent Non-Executive Director - Mr Jim Hazel Mr Hazel has had an extensive career in banking and investment banking, including positions as Chief General Manager of Adelaide Bank Ltd and managing director of an ASX listed retirement village and aged care operation. He is now a professional public company director and currently holds directorships on the boards of Bendigo and Adelaide Bank Limited, Rural Bank Limited, Impedimed Limited, Coopers Brewery Limited, Ingenia Communities Group, and the Motor Accident Commission. Non-Executive Director - Mr Graham Chrisp Mr Chrisp is a Civil Engineering and has substantial experience in numerous aspects of business operations, including design and construction of roads and other earthworks, mineral exploration and property development. He was a founding director of Centrex Metals Limited and Lincoln Minerals Ltd and is currently Executive Chairman of Outback Metals Limited. Mr Chrisp is also a Director of unlisted South Cove Ltd, the largest shareholder in the Company. RESEARCH NOTE – PATERSONS SECURITIES LIMITED 9 All information and advice is confidential and for the private information of the person to whom it is provided and is provided without any responsibility or liability on any account whatsoever on the part of this firm or any member or employee thereof. 14 April 2014 Centrex Metals Limited Independent Non-Executive Director - Mr Kiat Poh Mr Poh has over 30 years’ experience in the construction, real estate development, manufacturing industries and financial markets. He has held senior positions in corporate finance and mezzanine capital investment companies in Malaysia From 1998 to 2005, he was Managing Director of a Singapore Exchange listed company and is currently a director of Synergy Metals Ltd. Independent Non-Executive Director - Mr John den Dryver Mr den Dryver is a Mining Engineer with project development and operational management experience in the mining industry on projects in Australia and overseas. He held a role with Newmont Australia (formerly Normandy Mining Group) involving assessment and acquisition of mineral projects in Ghana, as well as significant operational involvement with North Flinders Mines and The Granites gold mine in the Northern Territory. Mr den Dryver is a current director of Gascoyne Resources Ltd, Adelaide Resources Ltd, and Helix Resources Ltd. He is also on the Board of Eyre Iron Pty Ltd, the manager of the Centrex – WISCO joint venture. Non-Executive Director - Mr Bingqiang Lu Mr Lu has over 20 years’ experience in the mining industry. He has held a number of positions with Wuhan Iron & Steel (Group) Corp (WISCO) and is currently the Managing Director of Wugang Australian Resources Investment Pty Ltd, a wholly owned subsidiary of WISCO and a Director of Eyre Iron Pty Ltd, the manager of the Centrex – WISCO joint venture. Prior to his role with Eyre Iron, Mr Lu was the Managing Director of Jinshandian mine. Investment risks CXM is subject to various financial and operational risks and uncertainties that could have a significant impact on potential capital requirements, profitability and levels of operating cash flow. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to: fluctuations in commodity prices (principally the price of iron ore, gold, copper lead and zinc), capital and operating cost estimates, borrowing risks, production estimates, need for additional financing, uncertainty in the estimation of mineral reserves and mineral resources, the inherent danger of mining, infrastructure risk, hedging activities, insured and uninsured risks, environmental risks and regulations, government regulation, ability to obtain and renew licenses and permits, foreign operations risks, title to properties, competition, dependence on key personnel, currency, repatriation of earnings and stock exchange price fluctuations. RESEARCH NOTE – PATERSONS SECURITIES LIMITED 10 All information and advice is confidential and for the private information of the person to whom it is provided and is provided without any responsibility or liability on any account whatsoever on the part of this firm or any member or employee thereof. 14 April 2014 Centrex Metals Limited RESEARCH NOTE – PATERSONS SECURITIES LIMITED 11 All information and advice is confidential and for the private information of the person to whom it is provided and is provided without any responsibility or liability on any account whatsoever on the part of this firm or any member or employee thereof.
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