Heatwave - (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science

Heatwave service
UNSW Workshop, Monday 5 May 2014
John Nairn
Heatwave Project Manager (National)
Acting Regional Director
South Australia
[email protected]
Acknowledgements
v 
Colleagues in Bureau of Meteorology in South Australian Regional Office, Weather and Oceans Services Policy Branch
and Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
v 
South Australian State Emergency Service, Department of Health, Department of Families and Communities –
recognised by AGD State and National 2010 Safer Communities Award
v 
Forensic Science SA. Subsequent 2013 publication in Journal of Forensic & Legal Medicine with Langlois, Herbst,
Mason & Byard
v 
PricewaterhouseCoopers 2011 Report for Government
v 
CAWCR 2013 Technical Report 60 co-authored with Robert Fawcett (National Climate Centre then CAWCR with support
from the Bushfire CRC).
v 
Churchill Memorial Trust travel in 2013 and report
v 
Publications in Geophysical Research Letters and the Journal of Climate (2012) by Perkins and Alexander (UNSW)
have reviewed heatwave indices and utilised EHF (heatwave intensity).
Early Lessons
Only a png image file. Users
quickly asked for more detail
than is possible without
implementation of digital service
Two preceding forecast charts
were not posted – as they were
partially constructed with analysis
data - missed opportunity?
Heatwave of three days better
spelt out in all titles as "Monday,
Tuesday and Wednesday"
Health agencies asked for links
to their heat management
strategies to be placed on this
level rather than in next link.
Future design elements should
incorporate opportunity for
stakeholder input
National Review of
Pilot Heatwave Forecast service
Adelaide, 30 April 2014
Three-tiered heatwave service – over emphasised 'heatwave'
– lighter yellow required
General acceptance of Pilot service – 'soft science' required to
improve partnership arrangements
Agreement that a Heatwave Service Reference Group would
be drawn from attendees – Public Health, Emergency
Services, Media, Power Utilities and Bureau
Mortality and Morbidity
•  Literature concentrates on +65 due increased co-morbidity
(cardiovascular, renal, mental, ….) and age impairment;
isolation, socio-economic disadvantage, infrastructure,
fuel poverty…. +1000 Australians/year (McMichael 2003)
•  What lessons so far:
–  Severe heatwaves frequently bring forward anticipated
mortality, but also adds morbidity burden
–  Extreme heatwaves impact a wider demographic –
particularly the independent ‘young–old’, younger
outside workers and risk-takers.
+80,000 years life lost in Paris, 2003 extreme heatwave.
Heatwave Lexicon (Australian Bureau of Meteorology):
Heatwave: A period of at least three days where the combined effect
of excess heat and heat stress are unusual with respect to the local climate.
Excess Heat:
Unusually high heat that is not sufficiently discharged overnight
due to unusually high overnight temperature. Maximum and minimum temperatures
averaged over a three day period are compared against a climate reference value.
Heat Stress:
A period of heat which is warmer, on average, than the recent past.
Maximum and minimum temperatures averaged over a three day period and the
previous 30 days are compared.
Heatwave Intensity (Excess Heat Factor): Combined effect of Excess Heat and
Heat Stress calculated as an index to provide a comparative measure of impact,
load, duration and spatial distribution of heatwave. Heatwave scaled by magnitude of
EHF (>0).
Severe Heatwave: An event where EHF values exceed a threshold for severity
that is specific to the climatology of each location.
Extreme Heatwave: EHF values greater that double severe threshold result in
cascade of failing systems, resulting in wider impact.
A statistical approach to heatwaves
• The Bureau of Meteorology’s new heatwave definition
provides a statistically sound means of assessing heatwave
severity no matter where a user is located. Every Australian
can be provided an assessment of heatwave intensity that
is sensitive to their local climate and their recent experience
of heat.
• The statistical algorithms used in the heatwave forecasts
can also be applied to identify the severity of extreme cold
outbreaks. An operational heatwave forecast service could
be generalised to include an operational cold outbreak
forecast service.
Excessive Heat Factor
(Heatwave Intensity)
EHIsig = (Ti + Ti+1 + Ti+2)/3 − T95
EHIaccl =(Ti + Ti+1 + Ti+2)/3 − (Ti−1 + …+ Ti−30)/30
EHF = EHIsig × Max(1, EHIaccl )
(next three days)
(same three days)
Long term temperature anomaly × (+ve Short term temperature anomaly)
(1971-2000)
(previous 30 days)
Heatwave detection
Amplifying term
Experimental Severe & Extreme Heatwave threshold
Generalized Extreme Value theory
utilizing Peaks over Threshold
trivial
few
vital
Generalized Pareto distribution function
– suited to fat tail distributions
many
0-1x 1-2x
2-3x 3-4x >4x
Severe threshold
80:20 rule for rareness or severity of
heatwave intensity
Extreme threshold
Southeast Australia
extreme heatwave Jan/Feb 2009
number of deaths
2009 extreme heatwave impacts
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
male
female
<45
46-50
51-55
56-60
61-65
66-70
71-75
76-80
81-85
86-90
91-95
age group
Heat-related mortality age
distribution for the 2009 extreme
heatwave in South Australia.
Heat related mortality (green bars) and EHF (red squares, black
line) for the 2009 extreme heatwave in SA. The three-day average
daily temperature is superimposed, plotted against the first day of
the three day period (blue line).
SA Coroner/State Pathologist data (published 2012)
Vic Health report
Melbourne EHF (red squares, black lines), ambulance heatrelated tasks (green bars), daily temperature (solid blue line) and
Victorian Department of Health warning threshold of 30°C
(dashed blue line).
Adelaide severe (length)
heatwave March 2008
Australian Government
Bureau of Meteorology
International case studies
Paris experienced ~15,000 excess deaths in 2003
Peak amplitude of
>3 x sev threshold
3x
2x
1x
Australian Government
Bureau of Meteorology
Chicago 1995 ~ 700 excess deaths, then Chicago 1999 ~ 100 excess deaths
Peak amplitude, >4 x sev threshold
Peak amplitude briefly ~ 2 x sev threshold
4x
3x
2x
1x
Severe Heatwave threshold using
1958 to 2009 AWAP data
Brisbane extreme heatwave
EHF period 21-23 Feb 2004
Jan/Feb 2009 extreme heatwave
Peak intensity for Adelaide extreme
heatwave >3x severity threshold
March 2008 severe heatwave
One excess death. Peak intensity
<2x severity threshold
Early 2014 release of
Pilot Heatwave Forecast product
Pilot Heatwave Forecast web site
Antecedent conditions –
12 months leading into 2014
Adelaide time series of
heatwave intensity (EHF)
Three small heatwaves
Severe heatwave
mid December 13
Extreme heatwave
mid January 14
Severe heatwave
early February 14
Melbourne time series of
heatwave intensity (EHF)
Four small (Melbourne) heatwaves
Regional heatwave
December 13
Extreme heatwave
mid January 14
Brisbane time series of
heatwave intensity (EHF)
Two brief late
December 13
heatwaves
Extreme heatwave,
early January 14
Two brief severe heatwaves,
mid-January & mid-February 14
Real-time verification – summer
2013/2014
Percentage area of Australia in heatwave
•  On two occasions, 50% of nation was in heatwave,
one spiked at 55%
Nov 2013
Dec
Jan 2014
Feb
Mar
80%
60%
over-f’cast
0.8%
27.5%
55.6%
40%
31/12-02/01
20%
0%
under-f’cast
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
Real-time verification – summer
2013/2014
Percentage area of Australia in severe heatwave
•  Spiking at more than 30%
Nov 2013
Dec
Jan 2014
Feb
Mar
50%
40%
over-f’cast
5.7%
31.6%
51.2%
30%
20%
01-03 Jan 2014
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
10%
0%
Real-time verification – summer
2013/2014
Percentage area of Australia in extreme heatwave
•  Forecasting system not doing so well here
Nov 2013
Dec
Jan 2014
Feb
Mar
12%
02-04 Jan 2014
10%
8%
6.2%
25.5%
42.5%
6%
4%
2%
The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology
0%
Summary
Three-tiered service well received
Partnerships needed across government to
improve messaging
Data sharing essential
Targeted research essential
John Nairn
08 8366 2723
[email protected]
Thank you…

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