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Wednesday, December 3, 2014
Today's Outright Close Spot Jet Fuel Prices (4:30 PM Singapore)
Market ($/bbl)
Low
High
Mean
Change
FOB SINGAPORE
FOB ARAB GULF LR1
FOB ARAB GULF LR2
FOB TAIWAN
FOB KOREA
86.96
84.26
84.43
86.72
86.52
87.06
84.36
84.53
86.82
86.62
87.01
84.31
84.48
86.77
86.57
-0.96
-0.96
-0.96
-1.05
-1.05
Today's Outright Close Spot Gas Oil Prices (4:30 PM Singapore)
Table of Contents
Physical Prices
Paper Prices
Commentaries
• Jet Fuel News
• Gas Oil News
• Refining News
p. 1
p. 1-3
p. 4
Market ($/bbl)
Low
High
Mean
Change
FOB SINGAPORE
FOB ARAB GULF LR1
FOB ARAB GULF LR2
FOB TAIWAN
FOB KOREA
84.54
81.68
81.85
83.85
83.55
84.64
81.78
81.95
83.95
83.65
84.59
81.73
81.90
83.90
83.60
-1.50
-1.50
-1.50
-1.48
-1.48
Editorial Contacts
Gas Oil
Change
Alex Theo
[email protected]
-0.06
2.86
2.69
-0.75
-1.05
-0.03
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Today's Physical Spot Differential for Jet Fuel and Gas Oil
Market ($/bbl)
Jet Fuel Change
FOB SINGAPORE
FOB ARAB GULF LR1
FOB ARAB GULF LR2
FOB TAIWAN
FOB KOREA
0.59
2.70
2.53
0.35
3.00
0.08
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.05
Ronald Kwan
[email protected]
Jiwon Chung
[email protected]
Oil Price Information
Service Asia Pte Ltd
1 North Bridge Road
#06-28 High Street Ctr
Singapore 179094
TEL: 65-6337-3519
FAX: 65-6337-1477
Jet Fuel Swaps Mid-Day
($/bbl)
Laycan
Low
High
Mean
Change
DEC
JAN
FEB
86.08
86.05
86.10
86.18
86.15
86.20
86.13
86.10
86.15
-0.74
-0.70
-0.51
Jet Fuel Swaps Close
($/bbl)
Laycan
Low
High
Mean
Change
DEC
JAN
FEB
86.43
86.21
86.21
86.53
86.31
86.31
86.48
86.26
86.26
-0.99
-1.19
-0.73
Copyright© Oil Price Information Service (OPIS)
Gas Oil Swaps Mid-Day
($/bbl)
Laycan
Low
High
Mean
Change
DEC
JAN
FEB
84.68
84.80
85.00
84.78
84.90
85.10
84.73
84.85
85.05
-1.04
-0.95
-0.91
Gas Oil Swaps Close
($/bbl)
Laycan
Low
High
Mean
Change
DEC
JAN
FEB
84.58
84.66
84.91
84.68
84.76
85.01
84.63
84.71
84.96
-1.49
-1.44
-1.33
1
OPIS Asia Jet Fuel & Gasoil Report
Today’s Jet Fuel Crack Assessments
Wednesday, December 3, 2014
($/bbl)
FOB Singapore Spot Differential Calculation
Laycan
Low
High
Mean
Change
Date
JAN
FEB
MAR
17.43
16.75
15.96
17.53
16.85
16.06
17.48
16.80
16.01
0.44
0.79
0.42
18-Dec
0.59
0.54
19-Dec
0.59
0.54
20-Dec
0.59
0.54
21-Dec
0.59
0.54
22-Dec
0.59
0.54
Regrade Close
Laycan
Low
High
Mean
($/bbl)
Change
JAN
FEB
MAR
1.60
1.35
0.85
1.55
1.30
0.80
0.25
0.60
0.20
1.50
1.25
0.75
Bid
Offer
Deal
Diff
23-Dec
0.61
24-Dec
0.61
25-Dec
0.61
26-Dec
0.61
27-Dec
0.61
28-Dec
0.61
29-Dec
0.61
30-Dec
0.61
31-Dec
0.61
1-Jan
0.61
2-Jan
0.61
Notional Diff
0.61
Avg
0.59
OPIS Asia Methodology
OPIS Singapore uses an average of daily forward
paper/swaps value as a basis of our Asian daily
assessments.
Jet Fuel and Gas Oil assessments generally reflect
pricing of products loading 15 to 30 days from the
date of publication. In other words, a report for
March 1 will reflect reflection of forward prices from
March 16-31.
Spot Differential & Time Spread
Physical Change
Jet Fuel
0.59
0.08
Spread
($/bbl)
Change
0.22
0.20
In our assessments, we use a variety of inputs which
include outright, floating as well as a combination of
both in terms of daily bids, offers and strike prices in
the respective oil product market on both the
physical and swaps trading.
We calculate the mid-value of the trading window by
using the weighted average calculation that use the
curve of 1st and 2nd cycle of swaps value. Then we
add a discount or premium to calculate FOB
Singapore quotes.
For discount/premium assessments for FOB
Singapore quotes, we take transactions with a size of
100,000 barrels for jet fuel, 150,000 barrels of gas oil
(500 ppm sulfur)
FOB AG jet fuel and gas oil assessments are a simple
freight netback from FOB Singapore quotes.
(Continued on Page 3)
Copyright© Oil Price Information Service (OPIS)
2
OPIS Asia Jet Fuel & Gasoil Report
Today’s Gas Oil Crack Assessments
Wednesday, December 3, 2014
($/bbl)
FOB Singapore Spot Differential Calculation
Laycan
Low
High
Mean
Change
Date
JAN
FEB
MAR
15.88
15.45
15.16
15.98
15.55
15.26
15.93
15.50
15.21
0.19
0.19
0.22
18-Dec
-0.06
19-Dec
-0.06
20-Dec
-0.06
21-Dec
-0.06
22-Dec
-0.06
23-Dec
-0.06
24-Dec
-0.06
25-Dec
-0.06
26-Dec
-0.06
27-Dec
-0.06
28-Dec
-0.06
29-Dec
-0.06
30-Dec
-0.06
West-East Spread Close
Laycan
ICE
Change
DEC
JAN
FEB
637.50
636.00
647.75
-11.25
-9.75
-8.50
Bid
Offer
Deal
Diff
($/mt)
Change
31-Dec
-0.06
EFS
1-Jan
-0.06
-7.01
-4.91
-14.80
0.15
-0.98
-1.41
2-Jan
-0.06
Notional Diff
-0.06
Avg
-0.06
(Continued from Page 2)
The calculations for FOB Taiwan and FOB Korea gas
oil is following: (FOB Singapore quotes minus FOB
Singapore discount/premium) + discount/premium
for each market.
FOB Korea jet fuel calculation uses OPIS US West
Coast benchmark as a a basis. We use netback from
LAX Jet Fuel prices by using TC 11. (South KoreaUSWC) We also reflect the changes for US Heating
Oil futures between US Close time and Singapore
4:30 pm then add spot differential
Spot Differential & Time Spread
Physical Change
Gas Oil
-0.06
-0.03
Spread
($/bbl)
Change
-0.08
-0.05
Copyright© Oil Price Information Service (OPIS)
Editors confirm and record deals done with a size of
30,000-60,000 mt for FOB Taiwan and FOB Korea
discount/premium assessments
3
OPIS Asia Jet Fuel & Gasoil Report
JET FUEL
• Myanmar still in search of distributor amid
uptick on air traffic
• NE Asia market muted amid term talks for
2015 supply
• Japan kero stocks matches last year’s 20
million bbl mark
The jet crack climbed 44 cents to $17.48/bbl,
as the front-month spread narrowed 20
cents to plus 22 cents/bbl, lifting on the spot
differential by 8 cents to 59-cents/bbl
premium to Singapore quotes amid no deals
in the cash market.
Separately, Vitol offered a 100,000-bbl lot at
60-cents/bbl premium to Dec 18-22 quotes,
which worked out to be a premium of 59
cents/bbl to Singapore quotes.
The Asia jet fuel market sees potential in air
traffic growth over in Myanmar amid its
search for an experienced jet fuel distributor
to improve the distribution infrastructure,
while Japanese kerosene stocks have
recorded past the 20 million-bbl mark,
matching last year’s figures.
The Myanmar government is still exploring
opportunities to improve the jet fuel
distribution infrastructure at its airports,
according to industry sources.
The country issued a tender to invite
experienced fuel distributors to form a joint
venture with Myanmar Petroleum Products
Enterprise (MPPE) for jet fuel distribution at
Yangon airport, as reported earlier.
Out of 23 submissions, 13 companies were
shortlisted, this included BP, Shell, PTT,
VTTI Asia, Puma Energy Group, Skytanking
Holding, Singapore Petroleum Co. (SPC),
Bangkok Aviation fuel services, World Fuel
Services, S-Oil, Petronas, ST-Airport and a
consortium formed by KT Energy, Q8
Aviation and BB Energy.
In addition, MPPE was heard to have also
not ruled out the possibility of forming a
consortium companies for this joint venture
stake. Results will likely be announced by
end of the year, according to industry
sources.
Incidentally, Myanmar’s Yangon
international airport has seen a surge of
around 153% in air traffic over 2013
compared to 2009, according to one source.
Copyright© Oil Price Information Service (OPIS)
Wednesday, December 3, 2014
Yangon international airport is still the
primary entry point into Myanmar, and
international and domestic air travel is likely
to continue to see an increase.
Over a five-year period, domestic and
international flights have recorded an
estimated 52,226 over 2013, up around
30,000 from 20,611 in 2009.
The country’s 27 airports were heard to have
served up to 4 million local and foreign
travellers over 2013, up 30% from 3 million
over 2011, added another source.
Meanwhile, the market was largely muted as
most Northeast Asian refiners were heard to
be fixed on talks for 2015 term cargoes with
its potential buyers, according to trade
sources.
For instance, Korean refiners including SOil, Hyundai Oilbank and GS Caltex were
undergoing contract negotiations for 2015
supply, while Samsung Total was said to
begin term talks soon, one source
commented.
Market players in turn, have also adopted a
wait-and-see stance towards Januaryloading cargoes, with the unpredictable
weather being the primary reason, added
one source.
However, jet fuel supply over January is
anticipated to be tight in Northeast Asia as
lower temperatures typically sets in,
prompting refiners to ramp up kerosene
outputs and relying on imports of jet fuel for
its demand, according to industry sources.
On the other hand, local Japanese refiners
saw their overall refinery utilisation rate
increase by 1.8% to 87.6%, the highest this
year.
Operable refining capacity in the country has
improved to around 3.85 million from 3.77
million b/d due to refineries returning online
from outages, according to Petroleum
Association Japan (PAJ).
Overall jet fuel stocks in the country inched
up by 1.1% to around 5.7 million bbls in the
week ended Nov 29 from 5.64 million bbls in
the previous week.
Jet fuel output eased 14.8% on-week to 1.49
million bbls from 1.75 million bbls the
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OPIS Asia Jet Fuel & Gasoil Report
Wednesday, December 3, 2014
previous week, falling below the 1.5 millionbbl mark the first time in three weeks.
supply between GS Caltex and its buyers
were still ongoing.
Exports also decreased from previous week,
down by 15.1% to 1.07 million bbls from 1.27
million bbls, as the yield for jet fuel dipped 1
percentage point to 6%.
However, rumours emerged that offers for
the 500 ppm sulfur gasoil lots by the Korean
refiner were between the premiums of 70-75
cents/bbl to Singapore quotes on FOB basis,
according to one source.
For kerosene, production surged by 28.8%
to 3.24 million bbls from 2.51 million bbls the
previous week, as stocks increased 3.4% to
20.46 million bbls, matching the around the
same level compared to the same period
last year. The kerosene yield climbed 3
percentage points to 14%.
GASOIL
• Sinopec excludes gasoil lots from Hainan
ref export plans amid hitting quota
• GS Caltex 500 ppm 2015 term supply
rumoured to be ~70-75 cents
• ADNOC mid-Dec lot sold to European
trading firm
The gasoil crack went up 19 cents to
$15.93/bbl on Wednesday, while the frontmonth spread widened by 5 cents to minus 8
cents/bbl, adding downward pressure on
the spot differential by 3 cents to a discount
of 6 cents/bbl to Singapore quotes amid no
deals done in the cash market.
The Asia gasoil market saw a Chinese oil
major excluding gasoil lots from its
December export plans as it has hit its
export quota, while ongoing term talks
between a South Korean refiner and its
buyers heard offers between premiums of 70
-75 cents/bbl to Singapore quotes.
Sinopec has planned to export a total of
160,000 mt of oil products from its 160,000
b/d Hainan refinery over December,
according to trade sources.
Of the total volume, 100,000 mt was set
aside for jet fuel, while the remainder was
for gasoline lots. Both oil products saw an
increment 20,000 mt each as compared to
exported volumes over November, added
one source.
Gasoil parcels were absent as the Chinese
oil major has hit its export quota for the fuel,
an estimated 20,000 mt of gasoil was
exported from the refinery over November,
according to industry sources.
Some traders deemed the differentials to be
high and the would likely be related to LRsized cargoes instead, as current
differentials for MR-sized cargoes on the
existing term contract were around
premiums of 50-55 cents/bbl to Singapore
quotes on FOB basis, added another source.
On the contrary, some traders also
anticipated the differentials for the 10 ppm
sulfur gasoil lots offered by GS Caltex to be
dealt around a premium of 40-50 cents/bbl
to similar quotations. However, this could
not be immediately confirmed.
Separately, more information was shed on
Abu Dhabi National Oil Co’s (ADNOC) recent
sale of 20,000 mt of 500 ppm sulfur gasoil.
The parcel was for Dec 13-15 loading from
Ruwais and was sold to Vitol at a premium
around $1/bbl to Middle East quotes on FOB
basis, according to trade sources.
Over in Japan, local refiners had produced
an estimated total of 5.02 million bbls of
gasoil for the week ended on Nov 29, up
0.3% from 5 million bbls the previous week,
according to a data from Petroleum
Association of Japan (PAJ).
The gasoil production remained above the 5
million bbl mark for the second consecutive
week, but was still around 5.3% short of the
production over the same period last year.
Stock levels inched down by 2.7% to 9.8
million bbl, falling below the 10 million-bbl
mark after crossing the it the previous week.
On the other hand, exports went up by
110.3%% to 1.69 million bbls, from 803,000
bbls the previous week.
Gasoil yield eased 1 percentage point to
21%, while overall refinery utilisation rates
went up 1.8% to 87.6%.
Meanwhile, term negotiations for 2015
Copyright© Oil Price Information Service (OPIS)
5
OPIS Asia Jet Fuel & Gasoil Report
REFINING NEWS
A combined crude throughput of four South
Korean refiners remained unchanged at
87.4%, processing about 2.49 million b/d as
of Tuesday, according to a source.
SK Energy’s operational rate stayed at
around 87% to process around 966,000 b/d
of crude oil, steady from the previous week.
Wednesday, December 3, 2014
source.
During the week, the product production
rate for gasoline and naphtha took about
29% and 11%, while that of kerosene
jumped by 3% on-week. They also produced
21% of gasoil and 12% of fuel oil.
The largest refiner in the country has been
keeping the throughput since early-to-mid
October, after it resumed operations of its
No.1 crude distillation unit with capacity of
65,000 b/d.
SK Energy operates the 840,000-b/d refinery
at Ulsan which has five CDUs and the
275,000-b/d refinery at Incheon, which runs
two crude distillation units.
S-Oil's 580,000 b/d Onsan refinery operated
at around 87% of its capacity. The refiner
processed an approximate 505,000 b/d of
crude oil.
The third largest refiner has been keeping
the throughput since mid-August this year.
GS Caltex, the country's No. 2 refiner
processed about 670,000 b/d of crude oil
during the week, recording 86.5%,
unchanged from the previous week.
Hyundai Oilbank has been the only South
Korean refiner with its throughput above
90%, keeping its run rates at 91%,
processing 355,000 b/d of crude oil,
Meanwhile, Japan’s refiners had processed
about 24.19 million bbls of crude oil in the
week ended on Nov 29, up by 2.1% from the
previous week, according to the Petroleum
Association of Japan (PAJ).
With the increased throughput, crude oil
stocks also fell to 96.36 million bbls, down
by 2.2% on-week.
The overall refinery utilisation rate continued
to rise to 87.6%, up by 1.8 percentage
points, the highest since March 24, 2012,
with all crude distillation units (CDUs) in
Japan online, except for one unit.
Cosmo Oil’s 100,000-b/d CDU was shut
since Oct 7 for scheduled maintenance,
which is expected to be restarted in the
middle of December, said a company
Copyright© Oil Price Information Service (OPIS)
6

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