BRIC = B R I C ? Study on future automotive growth markets and implications for suppliers May 2014 Contents A. Looking back: BRIC countries were the main automotive growth drivers of the past 10 years 3 B. Looking ahead: Specific challenges for automotive suppliers in BRIC markets 10 C. Beyond BRIC: New growth regions for the automotive industry 32 D. Conclusions 36 Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 2 A. Looking back: BRIC countries were the main automotive growth drivers of the past 10 years Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 3 BRIC markets were the major growth driver of the global automotive industry over the past decade Light vehicle (LV) sales and production, 2002-2012 [m units, %] CAGR 02-12 Sales 100% RoW Triad 56.6 79.5 +3.5% 21% 23% +4.6% 41% -1.6% 68% BRIC 11% 2002 100% RoW 81.5 22% 27% +3.6% +5.9% -1.7% 67% +16.4% BRIC 2012 57.1 39% Triad 36% CAGR 02-12 Production 11% 2002 34% +15.7% 2012 Note: Triad including Western Europe (excl. Balkan states), Japan, USA; "Light vehicle" includes passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (GVW < 6 to) Source: IHS Automotive; Roland Berger Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 4 Within BRIC, China accounted for more than 70% of the additional production volume during that period Light vehicle production in BRIC by country, 2002-2012 [m units] 27% 73% 27.3 15.3 6.3 1.6 2002 B 1.1 R 3.0 I C 2012 Note: "Light vehicle" includes passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (GVW < 6 to) Source: IHS Automotive; Roland Berger Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 5 Of the world's top 10 OEMs, Volkswagen and Hyundai benefited most from the BRIC countries between 2002 and 2012 LV sales: BRIC incremental volume and world market share with and w/o BRIC growth World market share with and w/o BRIC growth Volkswagen 11% 7% Other 53% ∑ 22.5 m vehicles Hyundai 6% Chevrolet 5% Toyota 5% Nissan 2% 4% Ford 2% 3% 3% Fiat Honda Renault Kia Note: "Light vehicle" includes passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (GVW < 6 to) Source: IHS Automotive; Roland Berger World market share 2012 (sales) without BRIC growth [%] Incremental volume in BRIC, 2002-2012 [%] 12.0 7.5 Lost global market share driven by BRIC growth (2002-2012) 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 Gained global market share driven by BRIC growth (2002-2012) 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 2 3 4 7 6 5 World market (sales) 2012 [%] Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 10 6 However, three of the BRIC markets reached a turning point in 2013, with China the only exception Light vehicle sales in BRIC, 2002-2013 [m units] Russia Brazil +10% 3.6 -1% 3.6 1.4 2002 2012 2013 +10% > Unstable economic environment > Reduced local customer demand 2.9 -6% 2.8 1.1 2002 India 2012 2013 China +15% 3.3 -7% 0.8 2002 2012 20.8 ✓ 2013 > Reduced macroeconomic growth > High customer demand for vehicles +12% 3.0 2013 +20% > Lacking infrastructure > Limited economic growth 18.6 2.9 2002 2012 > Weakness in macroeconomic conditions > Political uncertainty Note: "Light vehicle" includes passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (GVW < 6 to) Source: IHS Automotive; Roland Berger Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 7 Based on this market development, suppliers have to respond to a set of questions Key questions from the supplier's perspective Bild 1. What will be the future development in the BRIC markets? > How long will the downturn be in India and Brazil? Is there a positive market outlook? > Given the current political uncertainty, how stable will Russia be in the future? What are the major OEMs doing? > Will the Chinese market grow over the long term as well? What influence will the government have? 2. Where will additional future growth come from? Source: Roland Berger > Are adjustments to global activities necessary to participate in the new growth markets (GLOCAL)? > What are the technology and product requirements in these new markets? Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 8 Based on this market development, suppliers have to respond to a set of questions Key questions from the supplier's perspective BRIC market development > How will the individual BRIC markets recover/ develop in the short/medium/long term? > More specifically: > How long will Brazil's recovery take and how will the political environment develop? > Will India get back on the growth path after the elections? > What will happen in Russia due to recent turbulences and how will the market develop over the medium term? > Is China stable or is there a significant risk of the market collapsing? > What do these market trends mean for the individual supplier's capacities/investment policies? Source: Roland Berger Development of new growth markets (outside BRIC) > To what extent will markets outside the Triad (Nafta, W. Europe, Japan) and BRIC contribute to the future growth of the automotive industry? > Which of these markets should auto suppliers focus on? > What are the specific challenges for auto suppliers in these markets? > What do these market trends mean for the individual supplier's capacities/investment policies? Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 9 B. Looking ahead: Specific challenges in BRIC markets for automotive suppliers Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 10 From a global and long-term perspective, BRIC markets will further increase their world market share to over 40% by 2019 Light vehicle (LV) sales and production, 2002-2019 [m units, %] Sales 100% RoW Production 56.6 79.5 103.4 21% 23% 22% 41% Triad 104.7 22% 27% 25% 2019 33% 67% 43% BRIC 2012 81.5 39% Triad 11% 2002 RoW 57.1 35% 68% 36% BRIC 100% 11% 2002 34% 2012 42% 2019 Note: Triad including Western Europe (excl. Balkan states), Japan, USA; "Light vehicle" includes passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (GVW < 6 to) Source: IHS Automotive; Roland Berger Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 11 But we expect growth rates to slow down significantly by 2019 Light vehicle sales in BRIC, 2002-2019 [m units] Brazil Russia +4% +1% +9% 3.6 3.6 4.3 3.6 +9% 2.8 2.6 2.7 2013 2014 2015 3.2 1.1 1.4 2002 2013 2014 2015 2019 2002 India +13% 2019 China +10% +8% 3.0 3.2 +5% +9% 5.3 +19% 3.6 0.8 2002 +4% -1% 20.8 22.7 24.7 2013 2014 2015 29.6 2.9 2013 2014 2015 2019 Note: "Light vehicle" includes passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (GVW < 6 to) Source: IHS Automotive; Roland Berger 2002 2019 Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 12 Further growth in BRIC markets will be driven mainly by local sales rather than by exports/international trade Light vehicle net exports in BRIC, 2002-2019 [m units] Brazil Russia 0.2 -0.1 2002 2013 -0.4 2014 -0.3 2015 -0.1 -0.5 2019 2002 India -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 2013 2014 2015 2019 China 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 2013 2014 2015 2019 0.1 0.0 0.0 2002 -0.8 2002 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 2013 2014 2015 2019 Note: Net exports = Exports - Imports Source: IHS Automotive; Roland Berger Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 13 B.1 Brazil Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 14 Brazil We expect Brazil to return to growth after 2015, but local production will grow by only 2-3% per year Light vehicle sales and production forecast, 2002-2019 [m units] Sales Production +4.2% +0.7% +9.0% 3.6 3.6 4.3 3.6 +7.7% 3.5 3.2 3.4 2014 2015 3.8 1.6 1.4 2002 +2.9% -2.3% 2013 2014 2015 2019 2002 2013 2019 Note: "Light vehicle" includes passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (GVW < 6 to) Source: IHS Automotive; Roland Berger market model Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 15 Brazil Overall, however, the Brazilian market will be characterized by significant uncertainties Key factors influencing short-/medium-/long-term LCV sales and production Top five market drivers Short-term influence (2014) Medium-/long-term influence (2015-2019) 1 GDP development > After reaching a low point in 2012/2013, low GDP growth of 2-4% expected with significant uncertainty > Long-term growth above 2014 level expected (>3%), but also considerable uncertainty 2 Disposable income > Disposable income development expected on GDP level at 2-4%, but also with considerable uncertainty > Further growth of disposable income on GDP level expected with uncertainties analogous to GDP forecast 3 Tax rates/import duties > High import duties for cars and parts, plus high IPI tax (with reduction for OEM brands with local presence) > Tax and import rates expected to remain high to protect local industry 4 Government incentives > Inovar-Auto (largely in place, but with further ramp-up after 2014, e.g. habilitation criteria) > High degree of government involvement with many short-notice actions and low predictability 5 Other > Strong impact of current Argentina crisis, especially on production > Steep price increases due to lack of OEM profitability and exchange rate effects > Need to develop additional export markets in combination with increased competitiveness Source: EIU; Roland Berger Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 16 Brazil Suppliers need to combat declining or stagnating margins in Brazil by focusing on cost reduction and operational excellence Actions suppliers must take in Brazil Product/customer strategy Organization > Revise product portfolio > Evaluate new opportunities arising due to localization criteria and the promotion of energy efficiency within Inovar Auto > Optimize overheads and cut costs in response to strong cost increases in many areas, e.g. due to fierce price competition, increasing labor costs, material costs as well as unfavorable exchange rates and freight costs Footprint Other > Adjust plant footprint in order to avoid high personnel and rental costs in former automotive centers, especially in the areas around São Paulo > Evaluate opportunities due to new installments of existing OEMs and newcomers within Brazil > Strive for operational excellence with a focus on three key areas: – Achieve purchasing excellence – Increase productivity, especially through higher automation – Improve stock and working capital Source: Roland Berger Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 18 B.2 Russia Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 19 Russia Based on current political turbulence, we expect that Russia will not return to growth before 2015/2016 Light vehicle sales and production, 2002-2019 [m units] Sales Production +4.4% -1.3% +8.5% 2.8 2.6 3.2 2.7 +6.5% 1.1 2002 +5.0% -1.4% 2.0 1.8 1.9 2014 2015 2.4 1.0 2013 2014 2015 2019 2002 2013 2019 Note: "Light vehicle" includes passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (GVW < 6 to) Source: IHS Automotive; Roland Berger market model Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 20 Russia GDP growth is lower in BRIC countries – Future geopolitical situation and Crimea crisis are adding significant uncertainty Key factors influencing short-/medium-/long-term LCV sales and production Short-term influence (2014) Medium-/long-term influence (2015-2019) 1 GDP development > Previously: approx. 3% GDP growth expected, negative impact from Crimea crisis > Long-term slow, yet solid GDP development of approx. 2-3% expected, but negative impact from the current crisis possible 2 Disposable income > Previously: approx. 4% growth expected, negative impact from Crimea crisis > Long-term disposable income growth of approx. 4% expected, but negative impact from the current crisis possible 3 Tax rates/import duties > Reduction in import duties due to WTO entry > OEMs have to increase their localization rate up to 60%, incl. localization of engine/ transmission > Decreasing import duties for CBUs and increase in import duties on components make CBU imports in Russia increasingly attractive 4 Government incentives > Short-term-oriented subsidy strategy for local producers (as compensation for lower import duties and scrappage fee payment) > The obligation of OEMs to achieve a certain amount of local content and capacity in Russia expires by July 2018 > Subsidy situation unclear 5 Other > Geopolitical impact: current market participants expectations in light of Crimea crisis: >10% market decline in 2014 vs. 2013 > Further geopolitical situation unclear Top five market drivers Source: EIU; Roland Berger Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 21 Russia Given this environment, suppliers need to focus on key customers with high long-term potential – And try to share the risks with them Implications for suppliers Product/customer strategy Organization > Clear focus on selected large-scale customers: Avtovaz/Renault, VW, Kamaz > Focus on products which can be competitively produced in Russia over the longer term (even without subsidies) > Lean local organization incl. only those functions necessary to manage client interface > Key functions (R&D, product planning, etc.) to remain in home country Footprint Other > Focus on regional clusters: Togliatti, St. Petersburg, Kaluga, Tatarstan > Low/no investment activities in other regions > Investment – Careful, gradual investment approach in Russia – Risk sharing with OEM customers recommended Source: Roland Berger Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 22 B.3 India Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 24 India India's growth is expected to return to high levels starting in 2015 – Recovery speed depends on future government policies Light vehicle sales and production, 2002-2019 [m units] Sales Production +8.1% +10.3% +8.3% +13.0% 3.0 3.2 5.3 3.6 +14.6% 3.7 3.9 2013 2014 4.4 0.8 0.8 2002 +9.8% 6.0 2013 2014 2015 2019 2002 2015 2019 Note: "Light vehicle" includes passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (GVW < 6 to) Source: IHS Automotive; Roland Berger market model Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 25 India Revival of economic growth will boost industrial activity, increase incomes and rekindle consumption growth Key factors influencing short-/medium-/long-term LCV sales and production Top five market drivers Short-term influence (2014) Medium-/long-term influence (2015-2019) 1 GDP development 2 Disposable income > GDP growth expected at 4-5% > Target to return to 7-8% growth > Although incomes are rising, inflation has been high and is impacting all segments > Tight monetary policy will control inflation 3 Tax rates/import duties > Government has reduced tax rates by 2-6% across all vehicles > Interest rates to remain stable at current levels > Tax rate benefit may be taken away; implementation of uniform GST (goods & service tax) across the country will help decrease overall tax burden > Interest rates should decline once inflation starts coming down 4 Government incentives > Incentives and subsidies are provided by the different federal structures and compete against each other (provinces, regions) > Some minor incentives for electric vehicles expected 5 Other > The 12th Five-Year Plan (2012-17) of India's Planning Commission has laid out an ambitious plan: USD 1 trillion needed for infrastructure, significant delay in execution > No major changes to incentives and subsidies in the various provinces or regions expected > Continued enhancement of emissions & safety regulations > Possible regulation of vehicle lifetimes > Politicians are driving a strong mandate for growth & development > Restart of investment cycle and industrial growth will lead to greater demand for LCVs Source: EIU; Roland Berger Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 26 India India's high share of low-cost vehicles requires a low-cost setup wherever possible, e.g. with low-cost parts/design centers Implications for suppliers Product/customer strategy Organization > Extremely high share of low-cost vehicle fleet means strong price/margin pressure on the required parts – Focus on low-cost products/technologies for suppliers > Focus on alternate materials and technologies to reduce weight and cost > Low-cost design in local development center necessary to meet extreme cost pressure > Restructuring and optimization due to strong increase in costs and slowing growth in recent period Footprint Other > Profitability can often be reached only by utilizing a range of (local) subsidies which vary widely among the various federal regions/provinces in India > However, lean setup preferable due to overall poor infrastructure (e.g. production near the coast makes exporting easier) > Lack of infrastructure is a serious issue > Delays and corruption while dealing with government and other agencies; need for robust governance processes Source: Roland Berger Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 27 B.4 China Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 28 China After becoming the world's largest car market, China's growth rates are expected to drop to a moderate level of about 5% Light vehicle sales and production, 2002-2019 [m units] Sales Production +4.6% +9.1% 20.8 22.7 +4.8% 29.6 +9.1% 24.7 20.6 +19.5% 24.5 +19.2% 3.0 2.9 2002 22.4 29.6 2013 2014 2015 2019 2002 2013 2014 2015 2019 Note: "Light vehicle" includes passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (GVW < 6 to) Source: IHS Automotive; Roland Berger market model Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 29 China Stable single-digit growth is expected in China over the medium to long term, mainly due to increasing disposable income Key factors influencing short-/medium-/long-term LCV sales and production Top five market drivers Short-term influence (2014) Medium-/long-term influence (2015-2019) 1 GDP development > GDP growth rates at 7.3% are still high in a global context, but historic growth rates can no longer be reached > By 2019, growth rates expected to drop further to approx. 6.2% 2 Disposable income > Disposable income is increasing strongly in China: 8.3% in 2014 > With 6.9% CAGR, disposable income expected to develop above GDP growth 3 Tax rates/import duties > Increasing tax expenses: Taxes have been gradually raised, while tax breaks and subsidies are being phased out > Highly fragmented tax incentive landscape > Incentives for small cars and EV/PHEV expected > Further fast development of infrastructure > Air quality problems in big cities will accelerate new clean engine technologies > Tax on imported parts will increase to encourage local production 4 Government incentives 5 Other Source: EIU; Roland Berger > Electric mobility will be refunded by the government > Further fast development of infrastructure > OEMs speeding up sales network expansion and penetrating new regions & lower tier cities > OEMs are continuously introducing new models & expanding production capacity Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 30 China Suppliers need to also look at additional products and the aftermarket as well an intelligent mix of JVs and WOFEs Implications for suppliers Product/customer strategy Organization > Focus on big 4 (SAIC, FAW, Dongfeng, Chang'an) while penetrating winning locals (e.g. Great Wall, Geely) > Participate in expected ramp-up of e-mobility, telematics and increasing share of electronics > Participate in growing IAM aftermarket, e.g. through partnerships with winning aftermarket chains > Develop mid-end tier-2 suppliers and implement design-to-cost > Implement cross-functional cost reduction to secure margins > Extend cooperation (joint R&D, joint production) instead of full JV Footprint Other > Leverage existing JV partnership, e.g. offer low- to mid-cost technology via localized R&D resources to enter Chinese OEMs outside JVs > Since many OEMs are expanding their capacities in China in different cities, suppliers should follow the "right" OEMs with new plants > Intelligent mix of WOFE and JVs depending on technology maturity Note: WOFE = Wholly foreign-owned enterprise Source: Roland Berger Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 31 C. Beyond BRIC: New growth regions for the automotive industry Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 32 RoW markets don't have the momentum of BRIC, but growth is stable and certain RoW markets are outperforming the global market Light vehicle (LV) sales and production, 2002-2019 [m units, %] Sales Production 56.6 Next gen. growth markets 6% 14% 79.5 9% 13% 103.4 9% 13% RoW 8% 13% 35% 68% 2002 2019 14% 15% 13% 10% 34% BRIC 2012 104.7 100% 33% 67% 43% 11% 81.5 39% Triad 36% BRIC Next gen. growth markets 57.1 RoW 41% Triad 100% 42% 11% 2002 2012 2019 Note: Triad including Western Europe (excl. Balkan countries), Japan, USA; "Light vehicle" includes passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (GVW < 6 to) Source: IHS Automotive; Roland Berger Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 33 Outside Triad/BRIC, 5 markets will account for over 80% of incremental growth up through 2019: Mexico, Indonesia, Thailand, Iran and Poland Top 10 markets outside Triad/BRIC by incremental vol. (LV production), 2013-19 [m units] CAGR 2013-2019 7.1% 7.4% 3.7% 9.8% 10.4% 2.7% 3.2% 2.9% 4.2% 2.9% +4.6 81% 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.6 26.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 1.5 22.0 2013 Mexico Indonesia Thailand Iran Poland Turkey Argentina Slovakia South Malaysia Rest Rest positive negative Africa 2019 Note: "Light vehicle" includes passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (GVW < 6 to) Source: IHS Automotive; Roland Berger Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 34 Of the growing RoW markets, Mexico and Thailand in particular continue to be strong export hubs Next generation growth markets by net exports and share of Triad OEMs Incremental prod. volume, 2013-2019 [m units] Mexico Net exports, 2019 [m units] Share of Triad OEMs in local production, 2019 [%] 3.1 1.5 Indonesia 0.6 Thailand 0.6 Iran 0.6 Poland 100% 0.0 83% 1.6 0.0 99% 23% 0.6 0.5 Turkey 0.2 0.1 Argentina 0.2 0.1 Slovakia 0.2 South Africa 0.1 Malaysia 0.1 100% 89% 100% 0.9 72% -0.2 -0.1 97% 35% Note: "Light vehicle" includes passenger cars and light commercial vehicles (GVW < 6 to) Source: IHS Automotive; Roland Berger Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 35 D. Conclusions Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 36 Due to changed market dynamics in BRIC markets, suppliers have to rethink and adjust their local activities Summary BRIC markets: Status quo and outlook Need for action by suppliers > In a departure from the past decade, BRIC is no longer driving global growth as a whole > In the future, China will still be the global volume driver in automotive, with high single-digit growth rates > The other three markets are plagued by significant uncertainty – Russia is involved in the Crimea crisis and dealing with geopolitical developments – Brazil's market is hard to forecast due to economic volatility and changing regulations – India is expected to return to stronger growth, but at this point in time is uncertain and most players suffer from a lack of profitability > Short term: address specific BRIC market conditions (starting in 2014 and onward): – Brazil: Restructure cost base and increase productivity to avoid high cost of materials, personnel, freight, etc. – Russia: Reduce risks – India: Focus on low-cost parts and local low-cost design centers – China: Capture market opportunities > Medium term: Adopt individual BRIC country strategy in line with reduced future market growth dynamics Source: Roland Berger Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 37 New growth markets beyond Triad and BRIC are emerging – Suppliers need to address these markets with tailored approaches Summary Other up-and-coming growth markets: Status quo and outlook > Beyond BRIC there is a very fragmented set of further growth markets (production vol. of 1 m) > Most promising emerging markets are Mexico, Indonesia, Thailand, Iran and Poland > Further markets with significant potential include Turkey, Argentina, Slovakia, South Africa and Malaysia Need for action by suppliers > Identify future global target market portfolio > Evaluate key success factors to enter the market > Define specific market entry strategy for additional attractive future growth markets (customer, product, technology, footprint) > Roll out strategy, including adjusted footprint (if needed) > As with other growth markets, they need to be viewed in a differentiated manner due to their diverse nature, especially regarding their function as production hubs for other markets, openness toward foreign OEMs (e.g. Triad OEMs) as well as CKD share Source: Roland Berger Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 38 Your contacts Marcus Berret Dr. Thomas Schlick Peter Boekels Partner Automotive CC Partner Automotive CC Senior Consultant Automotive CC Löffelstraße 46 70597 Stuttgart Bockenheimer Landstrasse 2-8 60306 Frankfurt Mies-van-der-Rohe-Str. 6 80807 Munich E-mail marcus.berret@ rolandberger.com thomas.schlick@ rolandberger.com peter.boekels@ rolandberger.com Tel. +49 711 7673-419 +49 692 9924-6202 +49 89 9230-8767 Mobile +49 160 744-7419 +49 160744-6202 +49 160 744-8767 Source: Roland Berger Roland_Berger_Automotive_BRIC_Study_20140530.pptx 39
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