MAGB Malting Barley breakfast meeting supported by HGCA (incorporating Meet the Processor) Tuesday 21 January 2014 Fakenham Racecourse, followed by tour at Crisp Malting Group Ltd Malting Barley Market Outlook Dr Amandeep Kaur Purewal Senior Analyst - Cereals & Oilseeds AHDB Market Intelligence Global Grains Production - predicted to break records this year Production & Consumption (Mt) 2,500 2,300 2,100 1,900 1,700 1,500 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 Jan. f'cast Source: USDA As a result, prices move lower – particularly for maize UK feed wheat Paris m. wheat Chicago m. wheat Chicago maize 220 200 £ per tonne 180 160 140 120 100 Source: AHDB/HGCA Global Maize S&D - a much needed surplus, but not out of the woods Production Consumption STU 20% 950 900 15% 850 10% 800 STU (%) Production & Consumption (Mt) 1000 750 5% 700 650 600 0% 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 Jan f'cast Source: USDA Global Wheat S&D - persistent premiums to maize could undermine feed demand Production Consumption STU 35 690 30 670 25 650 630 20 610 590 15 570 550 10 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 Jan f'cast Source: USDA STU (%) Production & Consumption (Mt) 710 Global Barley S&D - uplift in production, but no major stock rebuild Consumption STU 30 150 25 140 20 130 15 120 10 110 5 Stocks-to-use (STU) ratio (%) Production & Consumption (Mt) Production 160 0 100 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 Jan f'cast Source: USDA Year-on-year change in global barley availability from main suppliers Canada P: +1.4Mt E: +0.2Mt P = Production E = Exports EU-28 P: +4.8Mt E: -0.3Mt Argentina P: -0.7Mt E: +0.7Mt Ukraine P: +0.5Mt E: 0Mt Russia P: +2.6Mt E: +0.3Mt Australia P: +0.7Mt E: -0.4Mt Global production 2012/13: 129.5Mt; 2013/14 forecast: 142.8Mt Total exports 2012/13: 19.5Mt; 2013/14 forecast: 19.1Mt Source: IGC EU Barley S&D – good export pace so far, but likely to slow down Exports (LH axis) Stocks-to-use (RH axis) 80 35% 70 30% M tonnes 60 7.8 50 7.0 25% 20% 40 15% 30 10% 20 Stocks-to-use Dom. Demand (LH axis) Total supply (LH axis) 5% 10 0% 0 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 Dec f'cast Source: EU Commission EU Malting Barley prices UK malting barley, S.Coast French, feed barley French, malting barley Euros per tonne 270 240 210 180 150 Source: RM International UK Situation UK wheat production and demand - stocks, imports and alternative feed grains important Domestic demand Production 18 17 M tonnes 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 Harvest year Source: AHDB/HGCA, Defra UK barley production and demand - largest crop in 15 yrs = more feed demand / exports BMD* demand Feed demand Production 8 7 M tonnes 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Harvest year Source: AHDB/HGCA, Defra How are we dealing with the biggest barley crop in 15 years? Barley usage (Jul-Nov) Brewing, distilling & malting Exports GB feed compounders and IPU* 2,000 1,800 Other key areas 1,600 K tonnes 1,400 1,200 1,000 636 202 245 436 800 390 333 333 690 723 404 341 398 386 280 391 320 385 673 720 735 On farm feeding 424 End season stocks 600 400 767 634 200 776 Intervention 0 *Integrated Poultry Units Source: Defra, HMR&C England & Wales ex-farm wheat and barley prices Feed wheat Malting barley Feed barley 210 £ per tonne 190 170 150 130 110 90 70 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 Source: AHDB/HGCA UK Malting Barley Market The geography of UK malting barley–strong distilling demand using more English barley Strong distilling demand Northern England moving toward spring distilling varieties E. Anglia typically in deficit, but looking at distilling demand South of England remains key for exports and regional ‘buffering’ Source: AHDB/HGCA UK malt exports - a key fulfiller of malting capacity, but now a reduced need UK malt exports (Jul-Nov) 200 180 160 ‘000s Tonnes 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 00/01 01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12 12/13 13/14 Source: HMR&C Outlook Five-year global outlook for barley - 1.8% average increase in production Production Demand 155 150 145 Tonnes 140 135 130 125 120 115 12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 Source: IGC EU barley prospects for 2014 - forecast 8% drop in spring area could be useful EU-28 total barley area Winter Key northern EU spring barley producers Spring 2012 14 2013 2014 f'cast 1.2 12 1 8 7.93 7.51 6 0.6 0.4 4 2 0.8 6.94 M Ha M Ha 10 4.52 4.8 4.84 0.2 0 0 2012 2013 2014 f'cast Source: Strategie Grains Summary • Grain prices are lower due to record global production this year • However, recovery in global grain demand and strong EU exports have helped provide some support • UK barley exports to non-EU countries are important to deal with the largest crop in 15 years - but face competition due to higher global production • 2014 may provide better opportunities with lower EU/UK spring barley areas expected Thank you [email protected] Grain skinning: What can growers do to help hit malting specification? Dhan Bhandari Research & KT Manager HGCA Slides courtesy of Maree Brennan and Steve Hoad Crop Science Team, SRUC Grain skinning & UK malting Detachment of the barley husk (skinning ) reduces malting efficiency - wasted time coping with variability - over-modification, loss of sugar to plant Malting: Barley Steeping Germination Water uptake for germination Conversion of starch to sugars Kilning Germination halted The whole supply chain is affected: Breeders Growers Maltsters Brewers & Distillers “Hassle” “Despair” “Extra work” “Unbelievable” 25 What are we doing? Helping industry to grow varieties with no physical defects Variety Improvement – funded by BBSRC’s Crop Improvement Research Club • Characterise varieties • Grain structure and genetics • Grain assessment and variety screening Industry intelligence – funded by HGCA • • • • Industry samples and data Field screening tests Industry protocols Identify risk factors from: Maree Brennan & Steve Hoad (SRUC) Outputs so far… • Development of variety screens for breeders • Developing a new scoring protocol for industry • Identifying risk factors to inform growers from: Maree Brennan, Steve Hoad, Linda McCloskey and Kairsty Topp (SRUC) 27 Skinning weakness was evident in 2012 • Wide range of skinning (4% to 67%) recorded in field trial • Many Recommended List varieties ( ) performed poorly • Dispelling industry myth that brewing varieties ( ) are resistant * from: Maree Brennan & Steve Hoad (SRUC) and Bill Thomas (JHI) 28 Screening for grain skinning Controlled environment screens are being compared to help the industry identify resistant and susceptible varieties - misting post-anthesis simulated a summer with wet and dry spells - shading post-anthesis simulated low light and poor grain-filling (2012) Misting Shading 29 Tests for grain skinning Grains must be subjected to mechanical force to distinguish varietal susceptibility to skinning (coded A to F) In this test, hand-harvested ears were mechanically threshed for 5 or 20 seconds 18 % Skinned grains 16 14 Hand 5s 20 s 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 A B C D E F 30 Results from the misting screen Varieties with larger grains are not more susceptible to skinning Varietal differences must be caused by other factors % Skinning Grain wt Wt loss Ear length Floret # Grain # 31 Identifying high- and low-risk varieties Phenotypic expression among contrasting environments - 2012 field trial at JHI, Dundee (poor grain-filling) - 2013 field trial at SRUC, Edinburgh (more typical season) - Glasshouse post-anthesis misting screen (wetting and drying effect) Test for significance of rank order among environments - Kendall’s coefficient of concordance, W 32 High- and low-risk varieties Skinning expressed relative to the population mean The final order is based on the average rank across environments 4 W = 0.525, P = 0.011 2012 2013 Misting Skinning (relative to mean) 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 33 Understanding the husk adhesion process A lipid cementing layer is required for husk adhesion The structure of this layer gives insight into varietal differences in husk-caryopsis adhesion Testa Cementing layer Aleurone Endosperm Pericarp Cuticle proper Cuticle Husk Cuticular layer Cell wall 34 Have we found the glue? Le Pe 35 Summary of findings so far… • Most current varieties had some weakness in 2012, a year of poor grainfilling and a prolonged harvesting period • Crops were much less susceptible in 2013, though weaker varieties skinned under SRUC under lab tests • Skinning can be induced by repeated (prolonged) wet-dry spells • Dispelled the myth that brewing varieties were less susceptible to skinning • Variety and environmental influences on a glue-like material are being investigated from: Maree Brennan & Steve Hoad (SRUC) 36 What can growers do? • It is too early to recommend a low risk variety, but some variety differentiation is emerging • Follow the HGCA Project on ‘Supporting UK malting barley with improved market intelligence on grain skinning’ A variety guide to skinning will be an output from this project • Ideally, grow more than one variety to reduce risk in a bad year • Liaise with maltsters on revised thresholds in a difficult season • Consider changes to combine settings to reduce abrasive/handling effects on weaker varieties • Attention to plant health: Although too soon to confirm, avoidance of plant stress before flowering and during grain-filling should help to offset any mismatch between husk and grain development 37 Project Team Maree Brennan SRUC, Post-Doctoral Research Assistant Christine Hackett JHI, Data Management Pete Hedley JHI, Genome Facility Steve Hoad SRUC, Principal Investigator Monika Lenty SRUC, PhD Student Linda McCloskey SRUC, Technical Support Brian Pool SRUC, Glasshouse Tom Shepherd JHI, Lipid Analysis Bill Thomas JHI, Principal Investigator Kairsty Topp SRUC, Data Management Thank you, Any Questions? Market requirements from a maltster’s perspective Bob King Commercial Director Crisp Malting Group Malting Barley Production and Purchases East Anglia Planted Areas 800 Thousand Ha 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Wheat Barley Total Cereals Oil Seed Rape Source: Defra East Anglia Barley Areas Thousand Ha 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Winter Barley Spring Barley Source: Defra East Anglia Barley Production 1200 Thousand tonnes 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 Winter Barley 2005 2006 2007 2008 Spring Barley 2009 2010 Total Barley MAGB England Malting Barley Purchases 1400000 1200000 Tonnes 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000 0 Winter Spring 2011 Total 2012 2013 Source: Defra Malt Market UK malt supply by sector – Free market 700 600 Thousand tonnes 500 400 300 200 100 0 2006 2007 2008 Brewing 2009 Distilling 2010 Food 2011 2012 2013E Export Source: MAGB Industry data Usage of UK Produced Malt 2013E Distilling Brewing Export Food East Anglia Malting Capacity 2014 MAGB Members ‘Wish List’ 2014 Malting Barley Specifications Importance of Barley Specification • High quality malt requires high quality malting barley • Malting barley specification ensures that customer malt specification requirements can be achieved • Ensuring that the malting barley delivered meets specification is key control activity Quality Requirements • • • • • • Germination – 98%+ Moisture Grain size Grain nitrogen – wish list Admixture Food Safety Importance of Germinative Capacity • Germinative capacity measures the viability of the barley • The changes that convert barley to malt wholly dependent on the grains ability to germinate • Non-viable grains do not germinate and pass through the malting process unchanged • These non-germinated grains will have a significant detrimental effect on malt quality Importance of Moisture Content • Risk that high moisture barley may have damaged germinative capacity • Storage of high moisture barley for even short time period can result in fungal growth and possible mycotoxin formation • Legal limits in place for ochratoxin A (OTA) which may be result from fungal growth • Visit www.hgca.com/grainstorage for management information and tools Field mycotoxins • Legal maximum levels apply to DON and ZEA when cereals are offered to the market – due diligence analysis programmes are run by malting companies • Maltsters are also participating in UK data collection of levels of T-2 and HT-2 mycotoxins Importance of Grain Size • Small grains will be lost during grading of barley • Small grains high in nitrogen, low in extract • Small grains absorb water rapidly Importance of Nitrogen Content • Correct nitrogen content of resultant malt important for brewing/distilling performance • Customer sets acceptable malt nitrogen range based on product type and process Importance of Other Specification Items • Admixture • Important to keep foreign material out of the malting and brewing process • Varietal purity • Individual varieties will require specific processing conditions to optimise malt quality • Pregerminated/split/skinned grains • Damage of this nature renders the grain problematic to handle and malt leading to poorer malt quality Varieties IBD Approved List Harvest 2014 WINTER SPRING SPRING SPRING VARIETIES VARIETIES VARIETIES FOR VARIETIES FOR MALT GRAIN FOR BREWING FOR BREWING USE USE DISTILLING USE DISTILLING USE Full Approval Pearl Flagon C NFC Tipple assata Venture Concerto Propino Optic Belgravia Concerto Moonshine Odyssey Provisional Approval 2 Archer Odyssey Overture Overture Provisional Approval 1 Talisman Sanette Glassel Belgravia HGCA Recommended List 2014 Spring malting varieties Variety Breeder Parentage HGCA Recommendation IBD Approval Sanette Syngenta Summit x Yard Full UK Prov 1 brewing KWS Aurelia KWS UK (Conchita x Quench) xQuench Full UK Under evaluation Odyssey Limagrain Concerto x Quench Full UK Full brewing & Prov 1 malt distilling Syngenta Quench x NFC Tipple Full UK Full Brewing Secobra Quench x Belgravia Full UK Under evaluation Overture Limagrain Concerto x Quench Full UK Prov 1 brewing & malt distilling Glassel Syngenta Summit x Belgravia Full UK Prov 1 malt distilling Quench Syngenta Sebastian x Drum Full UK No longer approved KWS UK Conchita x Quench Full UK Under evaluation Limagrain Minstrel x Westminster Full UK Full brewing & malt distilling Syngenta SY Taberna x Marionette Full UK Under evaluation RAGT Toucan x Class Full N East Full malt distilling Propino Hacker New KWS Irina New Concerto Shaloo New Moonshine NFC Tipple Syngenta (NFC 497 x Cork) x Vortex Full UK Full brewing Belgravia Limagrain Minstrel x Westminster Full N East Full malt & grain distilling use Optic Syngenta Chad x (Corniche x Force) Full UK Full malt distilling / No longer approved for brewing HGCA Recommended List 2014/15 Winter malting varieties Variety Breeder Parentage HGCA Recommendation IBD Approval Talisman Senova Flagon x Retriever Full UK Prov 1 Brewing SY Venture Syngenta DH9525 x Retriever Full UK Full Brewing Archer Limagrain NSL01- 8026 x Jonathan Full UK Prov 2 Brewing Winsome Syngenta Flagon x NFC 7169-01 Full UK No longer approved Cassata Limagrain Opal x NSL 96/7517 Specific (BaYMV) Full brewing Flagon Syngenta (NFC296-7 x Rifle) x Pearl Full UK Full brewing Pearl Limagrain Puffin x Angora Full UK Full brewing Malting Barley Prospects 2014 Malting Barley Prospects Crop 2014 • Crop 2013 marketing not finished yet • Bearish feel to market - surplus of crop 2013 UK malting barley, low premiums • Crop 2014 winter malting barley area slightly down, but still sufficient • Reduction in crop 2014 spring plantings in England • Return of more ‘normal’ malting premiums East Anglia Crop 2014 • East Anglia will continue to have a deficit of malting barley • East Anglia maltings will continue to move production into the expanding distilling market as brewing continues to decline • Variety and nitrogen will depend on market • Distilling requires low nitrogen, zero GN varieties – Concerto, Odyssey • Domestic brewing can use both winter and spring with range of nitrogens • Exports mainly mid-range springs • Each maltings will have their own specific requirements – check with your merchant Thank you
© Copyright 2024 ExpyDoc
