Intercontinental Transport of Ozone Pollution in the Context of

Intercontinental Transport of Ozone Pollution
in the Context of Global Change
Shiliang Wu and Aditya Kumar
Michigan Technological University
International Conference on Ozone and Plants
& HTAP meeting
Beijing, China
May 19, 2014
Global change and tropospheric ozone
∆ (strat.
ozone recovery)
(
∆ (land
use/land cover)
(
STE
∆ (climate)
(
O3
∆ (anthro.
emissions)
(
Ozone precursors:
Deposition
Nitrogen oxides (NOx
≡ NO + NO2)
Carbon
monoxide
(CO)
Volatile organic
compounds (VOCs)
[WMO, 2006]
Decreasing U.S. emissions in the past decade
http://www.epa.gov/ttnchie1/trends/
Ozone measurement at Pico for 2001-2011
75
Ozone mixing ratio (ppbv)
65
55
45
35
25
15
6/23/2000 11/5/2001 3/20/2003
8/1/2004 12/14/2005 4/28/2007
Date
9/9/2008
1/22/2010
6/6/2011 10/18/2012
Statistical analysis of the Pico data
Ct = daily average concentrations of CO or O3 at Pico
t = days since the reference time (e.g., Jan 1, 2001)
a0, a1, a2, a3 = Regression coefficients
et = Residual from the regression model
Null Hypothesis:
No significant trends exist at Pico for CO & O3 (i.e. a1=0)
Statistical analysis of the Pico data
75
2001-2011 trend analysis of ozone measured at Pico (North Atlantic)
Ozone concentration (ppbv)
65
55
45
35
25
15
6/23/2000
3/20/2003
12/14/2005
Date
9/9/2008
6/6/2011
[Kumar et
al., 2013]
a1: - 0.21 ppb/yr
P-value: 0.0001
Ozone trends at other remote sites (2001-2012)
[based on data from the World Data Center for Greenhouse Gases]
[Very preliminary analysis!]
Ozone trend at South Pole (Antarctica) for the past decades
Period
Trend (ppbv/year) P-value
Significance
R2
1975-2000
- 0.117
< 0.0001
Significant
0.62
2001-2012
+ 0.086
< 0.0001
Significant
0.68
1975-2000
2001-2012
Changes in surface ozone (annual mean) due to 2000-2050
changes in anthropogenic emissions and climate
[Wu et al., 2008]
Climate-driven changes in vegetation for 2000-2050
Tropical broadleaf evergreen Tropical broadleaf raingreen
Temp. broadleaf evergreen
Temp. broadleaf summergreen Boreal needleleaf evergeern
+17%
Boreal summergreen
Temp. needleleaf evergreen
C3 perennial grass
-9%
C4 perennial grass
Changes in JJA O3 due to land use/land cover change
2000
2100 – 2050
2050 – 2000
2100 – 2000
[Wu et al., 2012]
Changes in intercontinental transport of ozone from
Asia due to strat. ozone recovery (JJA)
Control
sensitivity – control
Sensitivity (w/ strat. O3 recovery)
Sensitivity / control
[Zhang et al., 2014]
Ozone trend at South Pole (Antarctica) for the past decades
Period
Trend (ppbv/year) P-value
Significance
R2
1975-2000
- 0.117
< 0.0001
Significant
0.62
2001-2012
+ 0.086
< 0.0001
Significant
0.68
1975-2000
2001-2012
Inter-comparison to various factors in affecting the future
evolution of surface ozone (ppb; JJA)
Effects from ∆(anthro. emissions)
[Wu et al. 2008]
Effects from ∆(land use/land cover)
[Wu et al. 2012]
Effects from ∆(climate)
[Wu et al. 2008]
Effects from ∆(strat. O3 column)
Acknowledgement
Huanxin Zhang, Richard Honrath, and Mark Weise @
Michigan Tech;
Loretta Mickley and Daniel Jacob @ Harvard University;
Jed Kaplan @ University of Lausanne;
Funding support from U.S. EPA (grant 83518901)
and NSF (grant 1313755).

Download Report