The Climate Atlas of Manitoba Project

The Climate Atlas
of Manitoba
Project!
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Danny Blair and Ryan Smith!
University of Winnipeg!
September 2014 The Climate Atlas of Manitoba Project Funding provided by: •  Randall Shymko at MB Climate & Green Ini>a>ves Branch Researchers: •  Danny Blair & Ryan Smith, UWinnipeg’s Richardson College for the Environment •  Kyle Swystun, IISD Expert advice: •  MaKhew Wiens, MB Agri-‐
Environment Knowledge Centre General objec>ves: •  Produce high-‐quality up-‐to-‐date maps of climate condi>ons across MB •  Assess and map recent climate trends across MB •  If possible, make maps of climate condi>ons projected for Manitoba in upcoming decades (mid-‐
century) •  Produce output in a format accessible to, and understandable by, many stakeholders, including the public Challenges: •  Quality of historical climate data in MB; Environment Canada’s climate sta>on data is not evenly distributed through space and >me •  Most recent climate model data (CMIP5) is available, but only in course resolu>on; >me-‐consuming and expensive to process •  Higher resolu>on CMIP5 data only available from one model, for one emissions scenario •  The processing of these data s>ll very >me consuming •  The >meline for the project is short •  The budget for the project is small… and has not been renewed! Choices: •  Use NRCan’s gridded dataset of daily 1950-‐2012 temperatures and precipita>on to depict current climate and recent trends •  Use Canada’s CANRCM4 regional climate model data for future projec>ons •  Use RCP8.5 emissions scenario •  Use in-‐house climate mapping sobware wriKen (by Ryan Smith) in IDL programming language to process and map data •  Use 1971-‐2010 to assess recent trends •  Use 1981-‐2010 for some climate maps •  Use 2021-‐2050 to represent ‘the future’ Daily Historical Data Bulle>n of the American Meteorological Society: December 2011 NRCan gridded dataset: • 
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Resolu>on is 300 arc seconds (very close to 10 km) Daily maximum temperature (°C) Daily minimum temperature (°C) Daily total precipita>on (mm) Years 1950-‐2010, currently (leap year days included) Domain: 141.00 to 52.00 W, 41.00 to 83.00 N Datum: Geographic NAD83 Very conﬁdent in the quality of the daily temperatures in the NRCan 10-‐km gridded dataset. Less conﬁdent in the quality of the daily precipita>on data. Model Data Representative
Concentration
Pathways (RCPs)
2.3 W/m2 so far RCP8.5 RCP6.0 RCP4.5 RCP2.6 CMIP5 = Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 Average 1961-‐90 global temperature simulated by models EMIC = Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (lower resolu>on than typical AOGCMs) IPCC AR5 Chapter 8 EXAMPLE OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN NRCan GRIDDED AND CANRCM4 (RCP8.5) TEMPERATURE DATA AVERAGE ANNUAL MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE AT GRIDPOINT CLOSEST TO WINNIPEG CANRCM4 NRCan Average delta = 3.35oC January Average Maximum Temperature Delta Map July Average Minimum Temperature Delta Map January Precipita>on Delta Map July Precipita>on Delta Map Enough of the boring stuﬀ. Introducing…The Climate Atlas! Trend in Annual Number of Days <= -‐30oC (1971-‐2010) (NRCan 10-‐km gridded daily data) NRCan Data Ref: Hutchinson, Michael F., Dan W. McKenney, Kevin Lawrence, John H. Pedlar, Ron F. Hopkinson, Ewa Milewska, Pia Papadopol, 2009: Development and Tes>ng of Canada-‐Wide Interpolated Spa>al Models of Daily Minimum–Maximum Temperature and Precipita>on for 1961–2003.J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 48, 725–741. Hopkinson, Ron F., Daniel W. McKenney, Ewa J. Milewska, Michael F. Hutchinson, Pia Papadopol, Lucie A. Vincent, 2011: Impact of Aligning Climatological Day on Gridding Daily Maximum–Minimum Temperature and Precipita>on over Canada. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 50, 1654–1665. Ryan Smith and Danny Blair 0 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Annual Number o Days Below 180 Alert, Nunavut: Annual Number of Cold Days, 1951-‐2012 Years with > 10 days missing not included 160 140 120 Days <= -‐30oC 100 80 Days <= -‐35oC 60 40 Days <= -‐40oC 20 Days Missing Produced by Danny Blair Year Data Source: Environment Canada 0 Produced by Danny Blair Year 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 120 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 Days Missing 1990 60 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 1979 1978 1977 1976 1975 1974 1973 1972 1971 Annual Number o Days Below 160 Resolute, Nunavut: Annual Number of Cold Days, 1971-‐2012 Years with > 10 days missing not included 140 Days <= -‐30oC 100 80 Days <= -‐35oC 40 20 Days <= -‐40oC Data Source: Environment Canada ANNUAL TOTAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN WINNIPEG CANRCM4 AIRPORT NRCan Gridded Other things the program can do: • 
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Produce high-‐quality, print-‐ready maps Output data in Excel format Compute “outlier resistant” p-‐values Draw custom shape ﬁles Other maps the program can make: • 
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Max, min and mean temperatures Extreme hot/cold days Degree-‐days Corn heat units Frost-‐free period Frost risk Precipita>on Heavy precipita>on events Other maps we would like to make: • 
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Moving average maps Forest ﬁre risk N-‐day precipita>on totals Runs of days without precipita>on Runs of cold/hot days Other maps You want to see made? •  How might you integrate the Climate Atlas into your research? •  Do you have money? THANK YOU! Find the ﬁrst drab of the Climate Atlas Project on our website: hKp://climate.uwinnipeg.ca

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