Speeding on the Roadmap-The Future of 3D NAND Flash A Materials Perspective Mark Thirsk Managing Partner [email protected] www.linx-consulting.com 617.273.8837• 973.698.2331 1 Linx Consulting Service Portfolio • Multi-Client Reports – IC Materials • CMP • Deposition • Patterning • Cleaning • TSV – MO Precursors • Proprietary Projects – Market Planning – Supply Chain Optimization – Ideas to Market – Strategic Planning – Voice of the Customer • Econometric Semiconductor Forecast – Financial planning – Sales and Operational planning – Forecasting • Cost Modeling – Client demand modeling – Product development – Bill of Materials quantification Hilltop Economics LLC – – Semi LCD – – Packaging PV IC Knowledge, LLC – – Nano Technology LED/ Compound Semi www.linx-consulting.com 617.273.8837• 973.698.2331 2 Economic Drivers Real Growth By Major Region 8 6 % Change 4 2 0 World US Asia-Pacific Europe Latin America -2 -4 -6 History: IMF, US Bureau of Economic Analysis Forecast: Hilltop Economics 2007 Hilltop Economics LLC 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 www.linx-consulting.com 617.273.8837• 973.698.2331 3 Econometric Semiconductor Forecast Semiconductor MSI Outlook 2,800 SEMI MSI (June 14 Update) SEMI MSI (ESF Q2 2014) SEMI MSI 2,700 2,600 2,500 2,400 2,300 2,200 2,100 2,000 History: SEMI Forecast: Hilltop Economics 1,900 ESF June 2014 Update MSI %Change %Change vs prior year III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2014Q1 2364 7.1% 2014Q2F 2014Q3F 2014Q4F 2015Q1F 2543 7.6% 2573 1.1% 2460 -4.3% 2461 0.0% 11.1% 6.4% 9.9% 11.4% 4.1% ESF Q2 2014 (May 2014) MSI %Change Hilltop Economics LLC 2012 9031 -0.1% 2013 9067 +0.4% 2016 2014 9929 9.5% 2015 10508 +5.8% 2016 11247 +7.0% www.linx-consulting.com 617.273.8837• 973.698.2331 4 Technology Roadmaps Logic 2010 2015 2020 2025 2010 2015 2020 2025 2010 2015 2020 2025 HKMG FDSOI MG MG - Ge PMOS MG - III/V NMOS New Technology Volatile DRAM MRAM Non Volatile NAND - 2D NAND - 3D RRAM - 3D www.linx-consulting.com 617.273.8837• 973.698.2331 5 Global Materials Market $20,000 millions $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 Spin On PVD Plating Litho Implant Etch CVD CMP Clean ALD 2013 $352 $380 $132 $2,760 $86 $73 $1,421 $1,625 $1,733 $149 2014 $534 $457 $165 $3,482 $105 $97 $1,649 $1,741 $1,766 $196 2015 $576 $497 $193 $4,134 $109 $117 $1,815 $1,819 $1,885 $253 2016 $588 $526 $232 $5,112 $116 $140 $2,072 $1,927 $2,025 $837 2017 $591 $553 $259 $5,903 $124 $155 $2,253 $2,019 $2,158 $927 2018 $505 $569 $287 $6,352 $129 $161 $2,384 $2,112 $2,230 $1,113 2019 $497 $573 $320 $6,812 $132 $175 $2,524 $2,190 $2,192 $1,551 2020 $417 $557 $329 $6,884 $128 $175 $2,559 $2,245 $2,165 $1,732 www.linx-consulting.com 617.273.8837• 973.698.2331 6 NAND Flash Roadmap 2Tb Cost per Bit 1Tb 512Gb 128Gb Density 64Gb 32Gb 2010 2015 2020 2025 NAND - 2D NAND - 3D RRAM - 3D www.linx-consulting.com 617.273.8837• 973.698.2331 7 Device Comparison • • NAND-3D – TCAT – 32 nm uncontacted poly 1/2 pitch (nm) – 24 Vertical cells – High k dielectric – Metal Control Gate NAND-2D – 16 nm uncontacted poly 1/2 pitch (nm) – Charge trap planar NAND – High k dielectric – Metal Control Gate Device Starts 2016 / MSI NOR RF NAND-3D Other MPU NAND-2D DRAM ASIC www.linx-consulting.com 617.273.8837• 973.698.2331 8 TCAT Structure Oxide Tungsten Oxide STI TaN High k dielectric Oxide Poly Oxide www.linx-consulting.com 617.273.8837• 973.698.2331 9 Comparable Litho Strategies 3D 2D EUV1 0 1 ArFi 4 8 ArF 7 12 KrF 35 19 Total 46 40 Mask Count 50 40 30 20 3D 2D LELE 0 0 Double patterning DP 0 7 Triple patterning TP 0 0 Quadruple patterning QP 0 0 Multi layer ML 4 3 Litho Etch Litho Etch 10 0 3D EUV1 2D ArFi ArF KrF IC Knowledge, LLC Strategic Cost Model 1303 www.linx-consulting.com 617.273.8837• 973.698.2331 10 Full BOM NAND-3D Cost category $M/yr $/waf NAND-2D $/cm2 $M/yr $/waf $/cm2 Starting wafer $25.92 $80.00 $0.113 $25.92 $80.00 $0.113 Direct labor $31.18 $96.23 $0.136 $27.11 $83.68 $0.118 Depreciation $400.15 $1,235.03 $1.747 $495.66 $1,529.82 $2.164 Equipment maintenance $91.98 $283.89 $0.402 $116.39 $359.24 $0.508 Indirect labor $60.28 $186.05 $0.263 $52.34 $161.54 $0.229 Facilities $49.38 $152.41 $0.216 $46.89 $144.72 $0.205 Monitor wafers $7.29 $22.51 $0.032 $4.94 $15.23 $0.022 Consumables $81.62 $251.91 $0.356 $110.71 $341.70 $0.483 $690.70 $2,308.03 $3.02 $826.93 $2,715.93 $3.61 98.0% 98.0% 98.0% 98.0% $2,355.13 $3.08 $2,770.81 $3.68 Total unyielded wafer cost Wafer yield Yielded wafer cost 18% Higher IC Knowledge, LLC www.linx-consulting.com 617.273.8837• 973.698.2331 11 Material BOM Category 3-D 2-D $400 Wet etch chemicals ALD $56.66 $18.15 Bulk gases $29.62 $25.34 Cleaning chemicals $7.34 $7.79 Cleanroom and safety supplies $8.91 $7.74 CMP consumables $13.67 $10.15 CVD precursors $33.10 $33.14 Etch gases $1.43 $1.43 Implant sources $1.50 $1.66 $62.36 $84.13 Plating chemicals $1.05 $2.10 PVD targets $3.97 $4.18 Quartzware $5.49 $3.89 $26.31 $141.74 $0.48 $0.27 $251.91 $341.70 Lithography materials Reticles Wet etch chemicals Total $350 Reticles Quartzware $300 PVD targets Plating chemicals $250 Lithography materials Implant sources $200 Etch gases CVD precursors $150 CMP consumables $100 Cleanroom and safety supplies Cleaning chemicals $50 Bulk gases ALD $0 3-D 2-D 36% higher IC Knowledge, LLC www.linx-consulting.com 617.273.8837• 973.698.2331 12 Bit Density NAND 3D NAND 2D Cell Type Charge Trap Floating Gate Dielectric High k High k ? 2-4 6F² / 24 = 0.25 F² 4F² 32 16 Bits / cm² 3.91E+11 9.77E+10 4 X more dense Cost per bit $7.73E-12 $3.70E-11 21% total cost Bits per Cell Cell Size M1 ½ Pitch / nm IC Knowledge, LLC www.linx-consulting.com 617.273.8837• 973.698.2331 13
© Copyright 2024 ExpyDoc
