Accounting for ODOT Program
Inflation Risk
Timothy Pritchard
Bid Analysis and Review Team (BART)
Office of Estimating – Division of Planning
Ohio Department
7/24/2014
of
Transportation
Ohio Department
of
Transportation
Inflation Risk
 Adding inflation to a planning level proposal
budget estimate
 Restated:
Accounting for Inflation Risk in Program Budgets
Ohio Department
of
Transportation
Inflation Risk
 ODOT Program Costs with Inflation Risk
 Apply broad inflation measure to each proposal
 Add up all the inflated proposal costs by SFY
 How does this work in practice?
 Present day estimated cost for each proposal
 Apply most recent construction cost inflation
forecast (Updated January and July)
 Latest version of Business Plan Inflation Calculator
 Mid-point of construction
 Cost Estimate Review (CER) Process
Ohio Department
of
Transportation
Inflation Risk
www.dot.state.oh.us/Divisions/Planning/Estimating/Pages/BART.aspx
CY14-18 Business Plan Inflation Calculator - Revised 03-28-2014
Ohio Department
of
Transportation
Inflation Risk
 Construction Cost Outlook and Forecast
 January (CY) and July (FY)
 White paper with assumptions
 5 year forecast
Ohio Department
of
Transportation
Inflation Risk
 Measured Ohio DOT Construction Cost
Inflation
 Chained-Fisher Construction Cost Index
 Updated Quarterly
www.dot.state.oh.us/Divisions/Planning/Estimating/Pages/BART.aspx
ODOT Chained-Fisher CCI 2014Q1
ODOT Chained-Fisher Construction Cost Index
(2012 Q1 = 100)
2010 Q1
2011 Q1
2012 Q1
2013 Q1
2014 Q1
2013 Q1 – 2014
Q1 Growth
87.3
90.8
100.0
103.7
100.9
-2.7%
Ohio Department
of
Transportation
Ohio Department
of
Transportation
Inflation Risk
Other Inflation Adjustments
 Estimator™ Bid History Catalogs
 Pay item average or regression prices
 4 years of data
 Awarded bid price
 Adjusted for inflation to most recent quarter dollars
Ohio Department
of
Transportation

Presentation in PDF

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