Adult Salmon and Steelhead Conversion Rates and

Adult Salmon and Steelhead
Conversion Rates and Migration
Timing
West Coast Region
Interior Columbia Basin Office
!
!
Ritchie Graves
Future of Our Salmon Workshop
March 19, 2014
Overview
•Methodology
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• Conversion Rate Estimates
• Total (Bonneville to Wells)
• By River Reach
• BON to MCN
• MCN to Wells
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•Migration Behavior
•Detection Dates / Passage Timing
!2
Methodology (Binomial)
50%
Conversion
Rate
Works well when detection probabilities are high
1) Identify PIT tag groups of interest
•
•
Species, Run, and Rearing Type?
Tagging Location? (as juveniles, as adults)
•
a
ti
n
g
U
p
s
tr
e
a
m
2) # of detections at detection site 1
3) # of detections at upstream detection site 2
Site 2
50
Detections
Additional detections at sites further upstream?
4) Divide site 1 detections by site 2 detections
PITAGIS Regional Database
Site 1
100
Detections
!3
Methodology
Captures several factors:
• Hydro
• Harvest
• Straying
• Predation
Advantages
• Estimates can be generated,
relatively cheaply, each year
• No handling effects (on adults)
• Fish are known source
• Estimates are simple to
understand
!4
Results
Species
• UCR Steelhead
• UCR spring Chinook
• UCR summer Chinook
• Okanogan River sockeye*
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Wild and Hatchery
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Juvenile releases upstream of
Wells Dam
!5
Bonneville to Wells Adult Conversion Rates (95% CIs)
100.0%
AVG = 72% (n
= 82 - 2,485)
75.0%
50.0%
25.0%
0.0%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Steelhead
!6
Bonneville to Wells Adult Conversion Rates (95% CIs)
100.0%
AVG = 78%
n=59 - 158
75.0%
50.0%
25.0%
0.0%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Steelhead
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Spring Chinook
!7
Bonneville to Wells Adult Conversion Rates (95% CIs)
100.0%
AVG = 76% n
= 472 - 522
75.0%
50.0%
25.0%
0.0%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Steelhead
Summer Chinook
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Spring Chinook
!8
Bonneville to Wells Adult Conversion Rates (95% CIs)
100.0%
AVG = 61%
n = 157 - 957
75.0%
50.0%
25.0%
0.0%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Steelhead
Summer Chinook
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Spring Chinook
Sockeye *
!9
!10
!11
!12
!13
Migration Behavior
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Thoughts…
•
Binomial (and CJS) Conversion Rate
estimates are useful tools
!
•
Conversion rate estimates can be made
annually, with relatively little additional cost
!
•
Adult PIT detections can highlight behaviors
that warrant further attention by managers
!15
Future Improvements…
More Detectors…
Additional Analysis
Estuary
• Pile Dike 7 Expansion (2014)
•
Tributary Detections
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•
•
Deschutes River mouth (2013)
Additional Fishway Detectors
•
•
•
•
The Dalles Dam (2013)
Little Goose Dam (2014)
Lower Monumental Dam (2014)
John Day Dam (???)
!
•
Behavior and Migration
Patterns (Year, month, etc)
Upstream Survival Model?
(COMPASS for Adults)
Estimates of harvest
designed to mesh better
with adult conversion rate
analysis?
!16
Questions?
!17

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