Timber Market Survey

Timber Market Survey
March Quarter 2014
Softwood price changes — March quarter 2014
TMS results for the March quarter 2014 have revealed strong price rises
across major structural MGP10 and MGP12 products with price increases
ranging between 2.7 and 5.4 percent (Table 1).The 12 month price
movements for MGP10 and MGP12 products show increases between
7.6 and 10.5 percent, reflecting increased house construction activity
across parts of eastern Australia over the period. Prices for treated
structural products also showed moderate to strong increases over the
March quarter 2014 ranging between 1.5 and 2.0 percent.
Table 1: Structural softwood timber — nominal price changes to March quarter 2014
Dimensions
(mm*)
12 months to
Mar–14
3 months to
Mar–14
MGP 10
70 x 35 x 4.8m
h 10.49%
h 5.36%
MGP 10
90 x 35 x 4.8m
h 8.95%
h 4.68%
MGP 12
70 x 35 x 4.8m
h 8.26%
h 2.65%
MGP 12
90 x 35 x 4.8m
h 7.62%
h 3.10%
F7 – H3 treated
70 x 35 x 4.8m
h 3.68%
h 1.52%
F7 – H3 treated
90 x 45 x 4.8m
h 5.21%
h 2.01%
Product
Key messages
■■
■■
■■
Prices for major structural softwood timber products
MGP10 and MGP12 showed strong increases in
the March quarter 2014, with movements ranging
between 2.7 and 5.4 percent.
Prices for outdoor softwood timber products,
showed mixed results with sleeper prices
remaining stable and decking prices increasing by
1.7 percent.
Panel and engineered wood product prices showed
moderate increases over the March quarter
increasing between 0.2 and 1.0 percent and 0.7
and 1.6 percent respectively.
Source: Timber Market Survey
* unless otherwise stated
Prices movements for treated outdoor products showed mixed results in
the March 2014 quarter with decking prices increasing by 1.7 percent
while sleeper product prices remained stable (Table 2). Results for the
last 12 months show prices for both products have increased, ranging
between 2.7 and 4.3 percent.
Table 2: Outdoor softwood timber — nominal price changes to March quarter 2014
Dimensions
(mm*)
12 months to
Mar–14
3 months to
Mar–14
Treated decking
90 x 20
h 4.31%
h 1.72%
Treated sleepers
200 x 75 x 2.4 m
h 2.65%
h 0.00%
Product
Source: Timber Market Survey
* unless otherwise stated
About the Timber Market Survey
The quarterly Timber Market Survey report presents Australian timber
price movement data collected through the quarterly surveying of a
representative range of timber product traders in eastern Australia.
The Timber Market Survey collects data on the movement in buying
price of a wide range of timber products purchased and stocked by
survey participants. All Timber Market Survey reports contain price
trend results for softwood timber, panels and engineered wood
products. In addition, the June and December quarter reports contain
pricing information for a range of hardwood products.
TMS results have revealed
strong price rises across
major structural products
1
TIMBER MARKET SURVEY
MARCH QUARTER 2014
Softwood price changes — March quarter 2014 continued
The major softwood structural products continued their recovery in
price this quarter, with between five and six consecutive price rises now
recorded since late 2012 – early 2013. In nominal terms, the price of
MGP10 has recovered to a point beyond its last peak in December 2010
before nine quarters of consecutive price falls were reported. MGP12
and Treated F7 still have 2 and 0.5 percent price growth to make up
respectively before they reach this equivalent point.
Figure 2: Quarterly detached housing commencements in eastern Australia, seasonally adjusted
Figure 1: Quarterly nominal price index of key softwood timber products
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics
Source: Timber Market Survey.
The reported price changes are based on weighted average price changes across New South
Wales, Victoria and Queensland using weightings of 50%, 25% and 25% respectively to
represent the approximate size of softwood markets in each state.
Over the calendar year 2013, detached house construction in eastern
Australia expanded slightly. NSW experienced growth in house building
where commencements rose by 18% on the previous year to 19,114
starts (Figure 2). This pushed the number of detached house starts in
NSW above that of Queensland for the first time since 2001. Growth
across eastern Australian in 2013 was tempered by a fall in house
construction activity in Victoria, reinforcing a longer term decline in house
construction in that state.
Monthly building approvals data for the March quarter indicate continued
growth in building intentions in NSW. Despite ongoing volatility in
residential construction activity, it is becoming clear that current low
interest rates are having a positive effect on construction in parts of
eastern Australia. This will help to reinforce demand for building materials
in these areas.
Although housing commencement data for the March quarter 2014 is not
yet available, anecdotal reports from Timber Market Survey participants
indicate that trading conditions appear to be picking up in areas where
there have been more stable markets. For the March quarter, survey
participants in NSW reported that the market has improved and there is
a reasonably positive outlook for coming months. This was reinforced by
Queensland participants who overall reported good trading conditions.
Feedback from Victorian participants was of a slow to steady market for
timber products.
Prices for plywood, particle board, and MDF products have all increased
through the March quarter 2014, with prices movements ranging between
0.2 and 1.0 percent (Table 3). Despite recent increases, plywood prices
have still trended downwards over the previous 12 months.
Table 3: Panel products — nominal price changes to March quarter 2013
Product
Dimensions
(mm)
12 months to
Mar–14
3 months to
Mar–14
Plywood C/D Grade
2400 x 1200 x 12
i 0.39%
h 0.34%
Plywood C/D Grade
2400 x 1200 x 17
i 2.61%
h 0.48%
Particleboard T&G
3600 x 900 x 19
h 2.31%
h 0.94%
Particleboard T&G
3600 x 900 x 22
h 2.52%
h 0.19%
MDF
2400 x 1200 x 16
h 3.44%
h 0.51%
MDF
2400 x 1200 x 18
h 3.16%
h 1.03%
Source: Timber Market Survey
All panel and engineered wood products have shown moderate price
increases in the March quarter 2014
2
TIMBER MARKET SURVEY
MARCH QUARTER 2014
Softwood price changes — March quarter 2014 continued
Prices for all engineered wood products surveyed in the March quarter
2014 continued to increase following four consecutive quarterly price
rises through the 2013 calendar year. Prices increased between 0.7 and
1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2014 to total between 3.7 and 4.9
percent higher over the previous 12 months.
Figure 3: Quarterly nominal price index of key wood based panel products and engineered wood
products
Table 4: Engineered wood products — nominal price changes to March quarter 2014
Dimensions
(mm)
12 months to
Mar–14
3 months to
Mar–14
I-joist/I-beam
240 x 47
h 3.70%
h 1.48%
I-joist/I-beam
300 x 63
h 3.88%
h 1.62%
LVL
200 x 36
h 3.97%
h 0.67%
LVL
300 x 45
h 4.94%
h 1.44%
Product
Source: Timber Market Survey
The historical nominal price trends for wood based panels and engineered
wood products are shown in Figure 3. Particleboard and MDF products
continue to steadily track upwards over the long term. LVL prices are
now showing a clearly positive price trend with five quarters of price
growth now recorded. Like particleboard and MDF, eastern Australian
I-joist prices are currently at their highest levels (in nominal terms) since
the Timber Market Survey began monitoring these products in 2004.
Although plywood prices have exhibited a long term decline over the past
five years, the last six months of data have returned positive price growth
indicating that this longer term trend may be moderating.
Source: Timber Market Survey.
The reported price changes are based on weighted average price changes across New South
Wales, Victoria and Queensland using weightings of 50%, 25% and 25% respectively to
represent the approximate size of softwood markets in each state. The Wood I-joist/beam
and LVL indexes are calculated using a simple average of the two product dimensions.
3
TIMBER MARKET SURVEY
MARCH QUARTER 2014
The Timber Market Survey is prepared by URS. For more information about the Timber Market Survey or
URS please contact:
Duncan MacLeod
Con Psiroukis
Senior Associate
Forestry Consultant
[email protected]@urs.com
Funding provided by:
The Timber Market Survey (TMS) was prepared with funding from Forestry Corporation NSW, VicForests, HVP Plantations, HQPlantations, ForestrySA, DAFF Queensland Government and Green Triangle
Forest Products (‘the funding bodies’).
URS Australia Pty Ltd (URS) has prepared this report in accordance with the usual care and thoroughness of the consulting profession for the use of the funding bodies. It is based on generally
accepted practices and standards at the time it was prepared. No other warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to the professional advice included in this report. It is prepared in accordance
with the scope of work and for the purpose outlined in the Agreement for Provision of Consulting Services dated 5 February 2014. The methodology adopted and sources of information used by URS
are outlined in this report. URS has made no independent verification of this information beyond the agreed scope of works and URS assumes no responsibility for any inaccuracies or omissions.
No indications were found during our investigations that information contained in this report as provided to URS was false.
This report was prepared between 1 April 2014 and 8 May 2014, and is based on the conditions encountered and information reviewed at the time of preparation. URS disclaims responsibility for
any changes that may have occurred after this time. This report should be read in full. No responsibility is accepted for use of any part of this report in any other context or for any other purpose
or by third parties.
4

Download Report