New Russian Energy Export Strategy Dr. Tatiana Mitrova Head of Oil and Gas Department Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences Paris April 10, 2014 Russia is the key energy exporting country Russian share in the global primary energy export Russian share in the global primary energy production EXPORT OIL In the world In the world GAS In the world COAL In the world Source: Energy Ministry of the Russian Federation In the world 1 Changing energy relationships between Russia and Europe, Russia and Asia Russian Oil Exports by Markets, mln. tonnes Russian Gas Exports by Markets, bcm East East West LNG Pipeline gas West LNG Pipeline gas Source: Energy Strategy until 2035, Energy Ministry of the Russian Federation 2 The role of Russia in the Middle East and North Africa is quite contradictory Russian companies participate in the upstream projects Russia is discussing “oil-for-goods” deal with Iran as trader $20 bln. Egypt Iraq Libya Iran 0,5 mbd of oil barter Russia Industrial goods and food Algeria 3 The crises was accompanied with dramatic changes on all Russian export markets… Russian gas exports in 2000-2013, bcm Sources: Rosstat, ERI RAS Gazprom, which has legal export monopoly for the pipeline gas, chose gas price maximization strategy, so the room for Russian gas export volumes growth is very limited now. 5 There are 4 Russian LNG projects under consideration currently, all of them face commercial, technical and regulatory challenges – new Russian LNG will become available only post 2020 Yamal LNG NOVATEK 15 mln t Baltic LNG-2 Gazprom 15 mln t Sakhalin-1 LNG ROSNEFT 5+ mln t Russian potential LNG capacity expansion, mln. t Vladivostok LNG Gazprom 10-15 mln t Source: ERI RAS Sakhalin-2 LNG Gazprom 10 mln t + 5 mln t potential expansion 25 LNG export liberalization – a part of a power game Gennady Timchenko Igor Sechin Alexey Miller 27 Eastern gas programme discussion demonstrates increasing rivalry, but as there are still no SPAs, contract with China is postponed again Source: Gazprom 27 European gas market is going to be tight until at least 2015-2016 as LNG is diverted to Asia; in 2016-2018 very limited new supplies will become available and there will be an additional call on the over-take-or-pay volumes European gas balance bcm 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Indigenous production (IEA 2013) Pipeline contracts MCQ Russia Pipeline contracts MCQ North Africa LNG contracts MCQ delivered LNG contracts MCQ diverted New LNG supplies Available ACQ-TOP volumes Demand (IEA 2013) Sources: IEA; Cedigaz; ERI RAS. 8 Existing long-term contracts guarantee stable sales volumes for Russia until at least 2022 Contract volumes and supply volumes of Russian gas to Europe bcm 200 180 160 140 120 ACQ 100 Fact 80 MCQ 60 40 20 Sources: Cedigaz, Gazprom, ERI RAS. 2030 2029 2028 2027 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 0 23 Contacts Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences Vavilova str., 44/2, office 410 118333, Moscow, Russian Federation phone: +7 985 368 39 75 fax: +7 499 135 88 70 web: www.eriras.ru e-mail: [email protected] 10