Drewry (pdf) - RAK Logistics

The Multipurpose & Heavy Lift
transportation outlook
for Project Cargo Network
11th September 2014
By Drewry Maritime Research
[email protected]
11th September 2014
Drewry | PCN 3Q14
2
Suggested development of dry cargo demand (million tonnes)
CAGR 13-17
Dry Cargo
Bulk Cargo
Container cargo
MPV share
9,000
8,000
860
4.7%
4.6%
5.5%
2.6%
840
7,000
820
6,000
800
5,000
780
4,000
760
3,000
740
2,000
720
1,000
700
-
680
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Total Dry Cargo
Total Bulk Cargo
Total Container cargo
MPV Market share (rh axis)
2017
Source: Drewry Maritime Research, GTIS, WTO
© Drewry 2014
Drewry | PCN 3Q14
3
Development of MPV market share to 2017 (million tonnes)
8,000
7,000
CAGR 13-17
MPV share of container trade
MPV share of minor bulk trade
MPV share of general cargo
2.5%
3.1%
0.9%
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2013
Bulk cargo
2014
MPV share of bulk cargo
2015
General cargo
2016
2017
MPV share of general cargo
Source: Drewry Maritime Research
© Drewry 2014
Drewry | PCN 3Q14
4
MPV fleet age profile by vessel type as at end August 2014
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
MPV
1989
Heavy Lift
1992
1995
Project Carrier
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
Premium Project Carrier
Source: Drewry Maritime Research
© Drewry 2014
Drewry | PCN 3Q14
5
Suggested fleet development by vessel type (‘000 dwt)
35,000
30,000
25,000
CAGR 13-17
MPV
20,000
-0.9%
PC/HL 3.8%
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
Multipurpose Vessels
2014
2015
2016
2017
Project carriers inc HeavyLift
Source: Drewry Maritime Research
© Drewry 2014
Drewry | PCN 3Q14
6
Effective fleet vs Effective demand
950.0
30.40
900.0
850.0
30.20
30.00
750.0
29.80
700.0
650.0
29.60
600.0
million dwt
million tonnes
800.0
29.40
550.0
29.20
500.0
450.0
29.00
2013
2014
Effective Demand
2015
2016
2017
Effective Fleet (RH axis)
Source: Drewry Maritime Research
© Drewry 2014
Drewry | PCN 3Q14
7
Challenges for 2014 and beyond
Majority of fleet improvement
is in the project carrier fleet,
highly dependent on project
cargoes and steel demand
IMF downgrade GDP growth
forecast for Brazil and China
for 2014 and 2015
Consolidation and
innovation by shipowners
will be main step to moving
freights out of the doldrums
Overcapacity still the main
challenge to profitability for
competing sectors
© Drewry 2014
Drewry | PCN 3Q14
Drewry was founded in 1970 as a provider of
independent information and advice to the global
maritime industry. Since then we have worked
with over 4,000 clients in more than 100 countries.
8
We are privately owned with research and
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Shanghai.
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Kingdom
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Singapore 089316
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© Drewry 2013

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