Velkommen i Handelsbanken
26.05.2014
Møde mellem Dansk Aktionærforening og Handelsbanken
Handelsbanken
• Universalbank grundlagt i 1871
- ældste selskab på børsen i Stockholm
• En af Nordens største banker
• Hjemmemarked i Danmark, Sverige, Finland,
Norge, Holland og Storbritannien
• Udlån: 1.727 mia. SEK (Q1)
• Driftsresultat: 4.920 mio. SEK (Q1)
• Solvens 24,5 % (Q1)
• 11.633 medarbejdere
• Totalt 816 filialer og kontorer i 24 lande
2
Nordens mest internationale bank
– over 797 filialer på hjemmemarkederne
Filialer med
universalbankvirksomhed
3
Filialer i det
øvrige Europa
Filialer i den
øvrige verden
Repræsentationskontorer
•
•
Danmark
Finland
•
•
Estland
Frankrig
•
•
Kina – Shanghai, Hong Kong
Singapore
•
•
Australien
Brasilien
•
•
Holland
Norge
•
•
Letland
Litauen
•
USA
•
•
Indien
Kina – Peking, Taipei
•
•
Storbritannien
Sverige
•
•
Luxembourg
Polen
•
•
Malaysia
Rusland
•
•
Tyskland
Østrig
•
•
Schweiz
Spanien
8%
Handelsbankens hjemmemarked
• 57 filialer i Danmark
• 45 filialer i Finland
• 49 filialer i Norge
• 18 filialer i Holland
• 462 filialer i Sverige
• 166 filialer i Storbritannien
4
Handelsbanken i Danmark
• Universalbank med fuldt produktsortiment til alle
privat- og erhvervskunder
• Etableret i Danmark i 1992
• Organisk vækst samt opkøb af to lokale banker
• Ca. 700 medarbejdere fordelt på:
o
o
5
57 filialer
specialistfunktioner som cash management,
handel med rente, valuta, råvarer og
værdipapirer, trade finance, leasing, fondsog værgemålsmidler, kapitalforvaltning og
corporate finance
Handelsbankens filosofi – kunden i centrum
• Stærkt decentraliseret organisation: Filialen er banken:
• Beslutninger træffes hurtigt og lokalt
• Hvor laver vi forretninger ”Kirketårnsprincippet”
• Filialen har hele bankens styrker og specialister i ryggen
• Lønsomhed prioriteres altid før volumen
• Ingen interne salgskampagner, bonusordninger eller volumenmål
• Langsigtet strategi
• Vi findes dér, hvor vores kunder er
6
Handelsbankens styrker – langsigtet stabilitet
• Nordens mest tilfredse kunder*
• Europas stærkeste bank**
• Den mest omkostningseffektive universalbank
i Europa
• Lavere kredittab end øvrige storbanker
• Ingen bank er ratet højere i Norden
• Højere lønsomhed end øvrige storbanker i mere
end 40 år i træk
*EPSI 2013 (Extended Performance Satisfaction Index)
** Bloomberg 2013
7
Handelsbanken i Århus
• 3 selvstændige afdelinger i Århus (Århus Syd, Århus Nord, Århus City)
• Hvert vores markedsområde i Århus
• I Århus City er vi 25 medarbejdere
• I Privat har vi specialister indenfor rådgivning af bolig, pension, forsikring, og Private
Banking
• 4 boligvurderingsansvarlige i Århus City
• Vi udfærdiger selv dokumenter
• Vi tinglyser pantebreve.
8
PrioritetsLån i Handelsbanken
• Handelsbanken Kredit
• 100 % dansk ejet filial af Stadshypotek AB i Sverige som igen er ejet af Handelsbanken i
Sverige.
• Der udstedes SDO obligationer der bruges til finansiering af lån med pant i fast ejendom
• Finansieringen skal ligge inden for 80 % af den vurderede markedspris på
etableringstidspunktet.
• Vi finansierer ejerbolig, ejerlejligheder, andelsboliger, fritidshuse, nedlagt landbrug og
ideelle anparter mod tilsvarende sikkerhed i form af ejerpantebrev eller Direkte pantebrev.
• Lånet kan tilbydes som en kredit, PrioritetsKredit, og/eller som et lån, PrioritetLån
• Prioritetslån/-Kredit er en meget fleksibel finansiering, der giver mulighed for at
sammensætte lån og kredit helt individuelt.
• Flere låneprofiler/rentevilkår under samme ejerpantebrev
9
PrioritetsLån i Handelsbanken
• Intet kurstab ved låneudbetaling – udbetales til kurs 100 før evt. omkostninger til
etablering til banken og til tinglysning.
• Ingen kurtage ved udbetaling eller kursskæring ved låneudbetaling
• Ingen bidragssats
• Samlet finansieringsløsning i banken
• Hurtig sagsgang – alt foregår i banken (rådgivning/vejledning, vurdering af boligen,
håndtering af dokumenter og tinglysning af pantebreve)
• Banken vurderer selv boligen
• Finansiering af fritidshuse op til 80 % (øvrige kreditforeninger finansierer kun op til 60 % af
vurderingen)
• Ændring af lån kan ske uden ny låneoptagelse og tinglysning. F.eks. skift mellem
rentevilkår (variabel rente til rentebinding, ændring af låneafvikling mv.)
10
PrioritetsLån i Handelsbanken
• Intet gebyr ved rentetilpasning
• Ejerpantebreve kan bruges som sikkerhedsstillelse – spare stempel
• PrioritetsLån kan ses i Webbank – løbende dialog mellem kunde og rådgiver
• Ingen kurtage ved indfrielse af PrioritetsLån
• Ingen problemer med små obligationsserier
11
PrioritetsLån i Handelsbanken
• Kundesatser pr. 26.05.2014 (kan ses på bankens hjemmeside)
12
• P3M
1,34 %
• P1
1,42 %
• P2
1,46 %
• P3
1,74 %
• P4
1,79 %
• P5
2,12 %
• P6
2,27 %
• P7
2,53 %
• P8
2,78 %
• P9
2,88 %
• P10
3,07 %
26. maj 2014
Handelsbankens forventninger
til aktie- og råvaremarkedet
Esben Kæmpegaard
[email protected]
Aktiemarkedsudvikling i 2014
Aktiemarkedet har været understøttet af:
•
Opsving i Eurozonnen
•
Centralbankernes lempelige pengepolitik
•
Det lave afkast på alternative placeringsmuligheder
(Obligationer)
•
Mindre politisk risiko fra USA og Eurozonen
Aktieindeks
OMXC20 CAP
Stigning i 2014
15,80%
OMXS30
4,00%
EURO STOXX 600
2,80%
S&P500
2,10%
DAX30
1,50%
Dow Jones
-0,30%
Aktiemarkedet har været presset af:
Nasdaq
-1,10%
•
Svaghed i de amerikanske og kinesiske nøgletal
Hang Seng (Kina)
-1,30%
•
Emerging Markets uro
Shanghai
-3,90%
Micex (Rusland)
-5,26%
•
Aktiemarkedet har steget kraftigt de seneste 2,5 år
og prisfastsættelsen er blevet mere anstrengt
Nikkei 225 (Japan)
-11,80%
BNP vækst 2013 (2014): moderat vækstacceleration i 2014
Danmark 0,4% (0,9%)
Rusland 1,3% (0,9%)
USA 1,9% (2,7%)
Euro -0,4% (1,0%)
Kina 7,7 (7,3%)
Japan 1,4% (1,3%)
Brasilien 2,3% (1,7%)
Kilde: Handelsbanken’s forventninger
Aktieoptur (og nedtur) kan inddeles i 4 faser
1. fase er likviditetsdrevet
Centralbankerne lemper pengepolitikken
(rentesænkninger og trykker penge). Dermed
øges likviditeten, hvilket presser
aktiekurserne i vejret. Økonomien begynder
langsomt at bevæge sig ud af recession, og
virksomhedernes indtjening begynder at
vokse
3. fase er drevet af øget risikoappetit
Virksomhedernes indtjeningsvækst begynder
at stagnerer og virksomhederne investerer
mere og har mere fokus på vækst frem for
lønsomhed. Virksomhederne øger typisk
gældssætningen i denne fase. I takt med at
aktiemarkedet er steget kraftigt og høj BNP
vækst øges investorernes risiko appetit kraftigt.
Prisfastsættelsen bliver mere anstrengt (højere
P/E).
4. ny nedtur begynder
2. fase er indtjeningsdrevet
Økonomien er i bedring, hvilket betyder at
virksomhederne igen begynder at få vækst i
indtjeningen. Centralbanken starter ligeså stille at
give indikationer på at man snart træder på
bremsen.
Vi befinder os her!
Katalysatoren for en ny nedtur er stort set altid en
recession, en finansiel krise eller overvurderet
prisfastsættelse.
Indtjeningsprognoser: Indtjening skal drive markedet højere
25,0%
20,0%
20,0%
15,0%
14,0%
13,2%
11,9%
10,4%
10,0%
11,3%
2013
2014
6,7%
2015
5,0%
5,0%
0,0%
-1,0%
-5,0%
OMX 40 Norden
Euro Stoxx 600
S&P 500
Prisfastsættelsen er blevet mere anstrengt
Amerikansk aktiemarked er “fair” prisfastsat
S&P 500 12 måneders fremadskuende P/E
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
S&P500
Historisk gennemsnit
PMI tal indikerer vækstacceleration i Europa
PMI - fremstilling
60
55
50
45
40
April 2013
Marts 2014
MSCI World: klare effekter af pengepolitisk stimulans
Alternative placeringsmuligheder er blevet mindre attraktive
%
18
30. september 1981: 15,84%
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
1953:
2,8%
2014:
2,51%
2
0
1953
1963
1973
1983
1993
2003
2013
Scenarier for krisen i Ukraine
Scenarie 1: Kun Krim
• Kun en lille negativ effekt på markeder og global vækst
Scenarie 2: Spændingerne stiger yderligere
• Rammer erhvervs- og forbrugertillid negativt for væksten
• Mindre markedskorrektion
Scenarie 3: Krig- Rusland invaderer Ukraine
• Rammer tillid og øger usikkerheden kraftgigt
• Kæmpe markedskorrektion
• ECB reagerer med QE, hvilket dæmper faldene
Scenarie 4: Sanktionerne eskalerer og energiforsyningen fra
Rusland til Europa stoppes
• Energi priserne stiger kraftigt
• Væksten rammes hårdt
stor markedskorrektion
• ECB lemper pengepolitikken relativt kraftigt, hvilket dæmper
faldene
Forventet markedsretning: moderat positiv
Makroøkonomi
+
Sentiment
+
Likviditet
+
Prisfastsættelse
=
Markedsretning:
moderat positiv
Råvaremarkedet – Når foråret kommer så vågner bjørnen
Efter at have oplevet en stærk start på året, så ventes den positive trend at
være brudt
• Svage makroøkonomiske data fra Kina ventes at fortsætte
• Ekstremt vejr og geopolitik har stået bag prisstigningerne
• Mildere vejr i USA vil sænke efterspørgslen på olie
Råvarer generelt: Negativt – neutralt syn
Ædelmetaller:
Positivt syn
Industrimetaller: Negativt syn
Energi:
Negativt syn
Fødevarer:
Neutralt syn
Få seneste nyt fra aktiemarkederne
Nyhedsbreve fra Handelsbanken:
•
Aktieugefokus
•
Aktiestrategi
•
Børsnyt
•
Danske aktier
•
Finansinfo
•
Nordiske favoritter
handelsbanken.dk/nyhedsbrev
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26. maj, 2014
ETN seminar
Bull & Bear
Long & Short
Esben Bøgeholdt Kæmpegaard
[email protected]
Verdens hurtigst voksende derivatmarked ETP
Investeringsforeninger
(Exchange Traded Funds)
Certifikater
(Exchange Traded Notes)
ETF
ETN
Bull & Bear
Long & Short
Definition af en ETN
• ETN = Exchange Traded Note
• Og på dansk: En børsnoteret usikret fordring mod
udstederbanken
• Typisk indekseret i forhold til et underliggende
aktiv
• Passivt forvaltet
• Kan være med eller uden gearing
OMSÆTNINGSREKORD
MÅNED EFTER MÅNED
Enkeltaktier som Vestas, Pandora,
Novo
Index som C20, S30, DAX,
Rusland
Råvarer som olie og guld blandt de
mest populære
Finanstilsynet har åbnet op for
pensionsmidler jf.
Puljebekendtgørelsen
31
Bull & Bear
Hvad er Bull & Bear?
Bull
Bear
Du tror på et stigende marked, og har du
ret, får du et positivt afkast, som kan være
dobbelt så stort som den reelle stigning
(tre gange på visse certifikater).
Du tror på et faldende marked, og har du
ret, får du et positivt afkast, som kan være
dobbelt så stort, som det reelle fald
(tre gange på visse certifikater).
Bull og Bear, Long og Short. Hvad er forskellen?
• Hos Handelsbanken er et Bull eller et Bear certifikat altid
med gearing der er større end ±1 (I dag ±2 eller ±3)
• Et Long eller Short certifikat er altid uden gearing
(Gearing = ±1).
• Ellers er produkterne fuldkommen ens i opbygningen.
Certifikatets kortnavn
BULL OLIE X2 H
BULL angiver
at det er et
bullcertifikat
OLIE angiver
at certifikatet er
koblet til prisen
på olie
X2 angiver
produktets
gearing
H angiver at
certifikatet er
udstedt af
Handelsbanken
Hvordan fungerer Bull & Bear?
+ 10 %
+6%
+5%
-3%
2x
gearing
Eksempler på Bull & Bear udstedelser
Råvarer
Aktier og aktieindeks
OMXC20TM
OMXS30TM
Valuta
Bull & Bear - Råvarer udstedt af Handelsbanken
Energi
Metaller
Fødevare
Hvede
Guld
Svinekød
Sølv
Olie
Korn
Elektricitet
Soya
Kobber
Brændstof
Emissions
licenser
Sukker
Aluminium
Kaffe
Zink
Kakao
Nikkel
Obs for valuta effekt
Appelsin
juice
Bull & Bear - aktier og aktieindeks udstedt af Handelsbanken
Medicinal
Industri
TM
OMXC20
Transport
Bank
FMCG
DAX (Tyskland)
Pulp og Papir
Tekstil
Telecom
OBX (Norge)
Hvordan virker Bull?
Prisen på Olie
Kurs
Bull Certifikat
BULL
Daglig %
Udvikling
BULL
olie x2H
Daglig%
Udvikling
Dag 1
$100
Kr. 50,00
Dag 2
$103
3,00%
Kr. 53,00
6,00%
Dag 3
$105
1,94%
Kr. 55,06
3,88%
Dag 4
$106
0,95%
Kr. 56,10
1,90%
Dag 5
$108
1,89%
Kr. 58,22
3,77%
Dag 6
$110
1,85%
Kr. 60,37
3,70%
% Udvikling
10,00%
$130
$125
$120
$115
$110
$105
$100
$95
$90
kr 65,00
kr 60,00
kr 55,00
kr 50,00
kr 45,00
Dag 1
20,75%
Administrationsomkostninger er indeholdt, men tager ikke højde for kurtage
Dag 2
Dag 3
Prisen på Olie
Dag 4
Dag 5
BULL olie x2H
Dag 6
Hvordan virker Bear?
Prisen på Olie
Kurs
BEAR
Daglig %
Udvikling
BEAR
Olie x2H
Bear Certifikat
Daglig %
Udvikling
Dag 1
$100
Kr. 50,00
Dag 2
$95
-5,00%
Kr. 55,00
10,00%
Dag 3
$100
5,26%
Kr. 49,21
-10,53%
Dag 4
$95
-5,00%
Kr. 54,13
10,00%
Dag 5
$100
5,26%
Kr. 48,43
-10,53%
Dag 6
$98
-2,00%
Kr. 50,37
4,00%
%Udvikling
-2,00%
$115
kr 57,00
$110
kr 55,00
$105
kr 53,00
kr 51,00
$100
kr 49,00
$95
kr 47,00
$90
kr 45,00
0,73%
Administrationsomkostninger er indeholdt, men tager ikke højde for kurtage
Dag 1
Dag 2
Dag 3
Prisen på Olie
Dag 4
Dag 5
BULL olie x2H
Dag 6
Vestas. Det gode eksempel på godt og ondt!
Vestas. Det gode eksempel på godt og ondt!
• Vestas lukkekurs d. 03.02.2012 = 74,45
• Vestas lukkekurs d. 12.07.2012 = 25,10 (Her rammer vestas aktien bunden i juli 12)
• Afkast = - 66,29%
• Hvad har en Bear ETN med 2 gange gearing givet i afkast i samme periode?
• Bear VWS X2H lukkekurs d. 03.02.2012 = 44,76
• Bear VWS X2H lukkekurs d. 12.07.2012 = 227,35
• Afkast = 407,93 % På trods af udsving undervejs!!
• ”Trend is your friend”
Vestas. Det gode eksempel på godt og ondt!
• Hvad hvis vi havde beholdt ETN’n et helt år?
• Vestas lukkekurs d. 03.02.2013 = 34,39
• Afkast Vestas fra 03.02.2012 = - 53,81%
• Lukkekurs Bear VWS X2H = 43,37
• Afkast Bear VWS X2H fra 03.02.2012 = - 3,11%
• Volatiliteten er afgørende.
Vestas det sidste års tid.
Vestas det sidste års tid.
Omkostninger ved Bull og Bear
• Administrationsomkostninger:
• 0,6% p.a. på aktier og aktie index med op til 2 x gearing
• 0,9% p.a. på råvarer med 2 x gearing
• 1,2% p.a. på råvarer med 3 x gearing
• Finansieringsomkostninger:
• 1 dages rente +0,25% p.a. marginal.
• Omkostningerne fragår dagligt certifikatets værdi.
• Svarende til 0,00167 kr. pr. dag for et certifikat med 1,2% i
administrationsomkostning.
Fakta om Handelsbankens Bull & Bear
• Godt allokeringsalternativ – spredning af din portefølje
• Nem og billig eksponering mod råvarer
• Gearingselement. Uden risiko for at tabe mere end investeringen
• Giver mulighed for at tjene på fald
• Giver mulighed for hedging/risikoafdækning
• Børsnoterede og handles på samme måde som almindelige
aktier. Du bestemmer selv, hvor lang tid du ønsker at beholde
dine Bull- eller Bear-certifikater
• Stor likviditet sikret via marketmaker ordning.
Risici ved Handelsbankens Bull & Bear
• Modpartsrisiko på udstederbanken
• Gearingselementet på dagsbasis (Volatilitet)
• Tvangsindløsning ved udsving på 50% inden for dagen
(100% på long/short, 33,33% for 3 gearede
udstedelser)
• Valutaeffekt
• Vær opmærksom på at likviditeten i det underliggende
aktiv kan have indflydelse på spreads.
Skattemæssig behandling af Bull & Bear (Frie midler-Private)
• Bull & Bear certifikater er betragtet som finansielle kontrakter
• Beskattes som kapitalindkomst efter lagerprincippet.
• Tab kan fremføres og modregnes i fremtidige gevinster
• Er der tale om Bull & Bear certifikater baseret på aktier. Kan evt
overskydende tab modregnes i aktiegevinster af børsnoterede
aktier.
Bull & Bear i pensioner
• Lang proces med myndigheder for godkendelse
• Nordea har i oktober 2013 fået godkendt deres ETN’er til pensioner
• Handelsbanken er ligeledes i gang med processen, forventer snarlig afgørelse
Eksempler på trading cases
Den gode
1. Køb Bull Hvede
2. Lukning af Bull Hvede
Den knap så gode
1. Køb Bull Vestas
2. Lukning af Bull Vestas
Lukkede cases de sidste 3 måneder.
• De sidste 7 cases har været med afkast med gevinst på minimum 10 %.
• Den samlede historik findes på vores hjemmeside.
www.handelsbanken.dk/bullbear
Alt hvad du behøver at
vide om Bull & Bear
samlet på et website.
Spørgsmål?
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