The Economic Financial Globalization

NIP-21/2013
The Economic Financial Globalization
The Economic Financial Globalization
(A Transformation of Physical Product Assets into Financial Assets)
NIP#22-2014
Version-17 .1
By
ดร. ธรรมนูญ อานันโทไทย
At The Stock Exchange of Thailand Building
Friday of April 25, 2014 at 9.00am
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Out Look from Q2/2014 till Q1/2015
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Open Secret Code:
NIP-22/2014
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22//2014:
2014: 5-Piigs + 2-Lions + 1-Parrot
Economic Financial Globalization Conditions :
(1) Cost of Carry (Interest Rate)
(2) FOREX
(3) Real Growth of GDP (%)
[email protected]
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NIP-21/2013
The Economic Financial Globalization
Contents
(Why not on the Supply Side?)
Topic #1
#1: Facing Global Financial
Economic Problems
Topic #2
#2: Financial Economic
Trend of Thailand
Topic #3
#3: Where do we go from here?
Why moves to on demand side?
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Topic #1
Facing Global
Financial Economic
Problems
(From the West moves to East)
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Global Outlook for the now on ……
Fund Flows Conditions:
(1) Cost of Carry (Interest Rate)
(2) Forex
(3) Real Economic Growth
Watch out for BRIC !!
[email protected]
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NIP-21/2013
The Economic Financial Globalization
Household Debts Estimated 2012 = 157%
Estimated Public Debts = 100% of GDP by Q2/2013
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The True Story of
US.Subprime Crisis
(1) Jim, 28 & Mary, 25 with 2 Kids & both of them making US$5.0K./Mo.
(2) In 2000 owned 1st NYC home at cost US.$50.0K. or equal to 10x of TEA
(3) 2001 to 2005, they owned 3 more homes & renting out for tax benefits
(4) From Mid’06 to April’08, they own 4 additional homes at average
cost of US.$325.0K./home or equal to 65x/home (8 Homes = 520x of TEA)
(5) Sep’08, all 8 of their homes have been completely foreclosure and Jim &
Mary had filed personal bankruptcy & now unemployed with no home
(6) In fact, now almost 20M. Americans & 80M.+ Homes are like Jim & Mary
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[email protected]
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NIP-21/2013
The Economic Financial Globalization
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Fund Flows Conditions:
(1) Cost of Carry (Interest Rate)
(2) Forex
(3) Real Growth of GDP
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[email protected]
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NIP-21/2013
The Economic Financial Globalization
Bottom Line
of Topic #1
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Topic #2
Financial
Economic
Trend of Thailand
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Our Butter & Bread !
(Private Sector = 80% of GDP)
June 15, 2012
[email protected]
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NIP-21/2013
The Economic Financial Globalization
The Central Bank
(1) MONEY MARKET
FINANCIAL MARKET
(2) CAPITAL MARKET
SECURITIES & EXCHANGE COMMISION (SEC)
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The Central Bank
MONEY MARKET
LINKING BUSINESSES
(Primary & Secondary MKT.)
Beginning Point Here !!!
FINANCIAL MARKET
CAPITAL MARKET
SECURITIES & EXCHANGE
COMMISION (SEC)
DEBT LINKING EQUITY
INSTRUMENTS
EQUITY RAISING &
DEBT FINANCING
?
Transform Assets by Hedged Funds:
Future & Option Products
DERIVATIVE, SPV,
MBS, ABS, SPE,
ETF &
SECURITIZATION
Subprime
“CDO & CDS”
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Conditions: (1) Cost of Carry (Interest Rate),
(2) FOREX, & (3) Real Growth of GDP
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[email protected]
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NIP-21/2013
The Economic Financial Globalization
The Creation of Worldwide Liquidity
2011
2011--2012 Source of Funds
(%)
(1) Central Banks
1
Power Money by the
Monetary System
(2) Lending (Money Mkt.)
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Broad Money
(3) Capital Market
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(4) Derivatives Instruments
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Securitized Debt
created by Capital
Market System
Debt Link to Equity
& Asset Underlying
(10 Times of Worldwide GDP)
Total (US$
(US$854
854 Trillions ++++++)
100%
100
%
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Bottom Line of Topic #2:
Futures, Forward, Options & SWAP
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Making Money
[email protected]
Losing Money
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NIP-21/2013
The Economic Financial Globalization
Topic #3
Where do we
go from here?
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Fund Flows Conditions:
(1) Cost of Carry (Interest Rate)
(2) Forex
(3) Real Growth of GDP
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[email protected]
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NIP-21/2013
The Economic Financial Globalization
Source of Fund within Thailand 1987 – Q4/2013
Traditional Fund Mobilization
Equity
(Public Offering)
Straight
Debt
Warrant
R/O
Equity-Linked
Instrument
• Coupon is low and tax-deductible
• Maximize benefit from share price
• Raise equity at premium
• Enlarge investor base
• High interest cost • Low dividend cost
• Fixed repayment • No fixed repayment
• Raise equity at discount
obligation
• Increase supply in existing market
• Immediate dilution
Euro-Convertible
Debenture
Debenture with
Warrants
Higher premium
Lower coupon
Lower dilution
Exchange rate risk
• Raise shares at premium
• Low coupon
• Arrange able as rights issue
• No exchange rate risk
• No interest rate risk
October 18, 2011
Pre-IPO
Convertible Bonds
• Raise fund prior to IPO
• Low coupon
• Convertible to equity
• No exchange rate risk
• No interest rate risk
Economic Financial Globalization
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Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
IRR “Versus” Internal Rate of Revenue (IRR)
Return required
by Lenders
(______%)
Debt
Proposal
(_______%)
Return required by
Shareholders
(________%)
_______%
Equity
Proposal
(________%)
______%
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) = _______%
Period
0
1
2
3
IRR (_____%) > WACC (_____%)26
BCG-Matrix
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[email protected]
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NIP-21/2013
The Economic Financial Globalization
14-Local Business Clusters
High-Potential Outlook for next 10 Years
(1) Foods
(2) Textile & Garment
(3) Shoes & Leather
(4) Wood Products & Furniture
(5) Medicine & Chemical Products
(6) Rubber & Products
(7) Plastic Products
(8) Ceramics & Glasses
(9) Electrical & Electronics
Appliances
(10) Motor Vehicles &
Auto Parts
(11) Jewelry & Accessories
(12) Iron & Steel
(13) Petrochemical
Products
(14) Pulp & Paper
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Open Secret Code
(Bottom Line of Topic #3)
NIP-22/2014
22
22//2014:
2014: 5-Piigs + 2-Lions + 1-Parrot
Economic Financial Globalization Conditions :
(1) Cost of Carry (Interest Rate)
(2) FOREX
(3) Real Growth of GDP (%)
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Out Look from Q2/2014 till Q1/2015
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[email protected]
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NIP-21/2013
The Economic Financial Globalization
Q&A
Thank You !
31
ดร.
ดร.ธรรมนูญ อานันโทไทย
[email protected]
Merchant Partners Securities Public Company Limited
ใช้ ชีวติ เรียนหนังสือตั'งแต่ ระดับมัธยมศึกษา (High School) จนจบปริญญาเอก (Ph.D.) ในสหรัฐอเมริกา เป็ นเวลาติดต่ อ
นานกว่ า 16 ปี เมืBอกลับมาประเทศไทย ได้ ทํางานในแวดวงตลาดทุน (Capital Market) เป็ นเวลากว่ า 23 ปี โดยมี
ตําแหน่ งครั' ง สุ ดท้ ายคือ President & CEO ของบริ ษัทหลักทรั พย์ DBS Thai Danu Securities Ltd. อันเป็ นสถาบัน
การเงินในกลุ่ม Temasek & DBS Group ของสิ ง คโปร์ ทีBใหญ่ ทีBสุดในเอเชี ยใต้ ต่ อมา Early Retirement ได้ รับเลือกให้
ดํารงตําแหน่ คณบดีคณะบริ หารธุรกิจ มหาวิทยาลัยธุรกิจบัณฑิตย์ ปี การศึ กษา 2544
2544-45 and Completed 5-IOD
Courses by ThaiThai-Institute of Directors: DAP
DAP--48/
48/2005,
2005, ACP
ACP--10/
10/2005,
2005, DCP
DCP--70/
70/2006,
2006, RCP
RCP--14/
14/2006,
2006, & UFS
UFS-7/2007.
2007.
**
**ปัปัจจุบัน - 2014**
(1) Director & Audit Committee, Pakfood Public Company Ltd (PCC)
(2) Vice Chairman & Audit Chairman, Board of Directors of IFS
IFS--Capital (Thailand) Public
Company LimitedLimited-IFST (An IFS Group of Singapore)
(3) Vice Chairman & Audit Chairman, Board of Directors of Better World Green Plc. (BWG)
(BWG)\\
(4) Executive Director & Chief Economist, Merchant Partners Public Co. Ltd. (SET
(SET--Broker ##21
21))
(5) Director & Audit Committee of Property Perfect Public Co. Ltd. (PF)
(6) Independent Director of Thai Union Frozen Products Public Company Limited (TUF)
(7) กรรมการในสายงานเศรษฐกิจของสภาอุตสาหกรรมแห่ งประเทศไทย (Federation of Thai Industries)
(8) ExEx-Board ในตลาดสิ นค้าเกษตรล่วงหน้ าแห่ งประเทศไทย (Agricultural Futures Exchange of ThailandThailand-AFET)
(9) Member of The Audit CommitteeCommittee-Board of Trustees of Bangkok University
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[email protected]
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