John Smiths Cup - Betting Weekly

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BETTING WEEKLY
Issue 20
IN THE
SPOTLIGHT
Professional gambler/
racehorse owner
DAN GILBERT
talks to BETTING WEEKLY
www.bettingweekly.co.uk
11th July 2014
PLUS
Systems Corner
+
Horsey Notebook
+
Other Horseracing
Bets
@Betting_Weekly
Horsey Notebook
Monday 30th June - Windsor 1m Maiden Stakes
‘Clearly an educational ‘spin’ for the John Gosden trained BAHA, who was anchored like The Mary Rose as the back of the
field (presumably to settle him, wore cross noseband) and he left an awful lot on the track as he made eye-catching late
headway to take fourth in the closing stages. Was travelling much faster than the three in front of him in the closing stages
and is an interesting runner in maiden company next time. Ran to around 70 here and I would expect a sharper, settled
and handier ridden BAHA would be running to 85 or so next time. Incidentally the mother won ‘the oaks’ in Australia over
ten furlongs so this Dubawi colt has the breeding on his side as well.’
Wednesday 2nd July - Catterick 5f 2yo Maiden Stakes
‘One for nursery handicaps here and although MISS VAN GOGH is unlikely to be anything special she has clearly been
ridden with handicaps in mind in her three starts to date. Held up here on a track not conducive for such tactics over the
minimum trip, she stayed on under hands and heels riding in the closing stages in a never nearer fifth. On the balance of
her three runs she shouldn’t get much of a mark and I feel sure she will be placed to good effect soon. Would certainly be
up to winning a nursery off around a mark of 60 and another furlong wouldn’t go amiss either.’
Wednesday 2nd July - Catterick 6f 2yo Maiden Stakes
‘Like many of Mark Johnston’s horses, SUMMER TIMES has quite a bit about him physically and this is just not his track.
Undulations and a bend for this big long striding son of Bahri, was never going to help and you can’t help think how easily
he’d have won this on a conventional track. The time was quite good, so although the public will see that it’s produced a
good time I feel there is quite a bit in the locker here and he looks one to be with on a more galloping track/over further
than this. I liked his attitude and there was plenty of stamina on the dam side of the pedigree. Definitely one for now and
in the longer term this colt.’
Wednesday 2nd July - Chepstow 6f 2yo Maiden Stakes
‘Probably my bet eye-catcher of the week here, was given a tender enough introduction by Jimmy Quinn here and LA
ESTATUA can be rated significantly better than the bare form here. Held up out the back off a bit of military medium
kind of gallop, the daughter of Lope De Vega, made up ground at the mid-point of the race in quite impressive fashion.
She looked the likely winner but flattened out in the closing stages over one that had had a much better trip on the front
end. What’s more her trainer James Tate has a very poor record first time out, so you can expect plenty of improvement.
Can’t see the market missing her but she’s more in hand on this form than most people think she has and I would have
maximum confidence in her in any run of the mill maiden. She’s a half sister to the useful St Moritz and is one that you
cannot miss next time as I think she’ll end up quite smart.’
Thursday 3rd July - Epsom 1m4f Maiden Stakes
‘With ‘De Sousa’ booked and a dodgy favourite Toast of The Town, I was surprised to see SHADOWS OFTHENIGHT held
up right out the back here. Yes it was hit third run for a handicap mark but thought there might have been a tad more
enterprise here. She ran well, just never put in the race and it seems as though that’s the right move because Mick
Channon’s filly has only been given 73, which I think is quite lenient. She’s had negative rides now in all three maiden
starts, including when not beaten that far behind Lancashire Oaks heroine Sultanina on debut. She is entered up in a
‘bobis bonus handicap’ at Thirsk on Tuesday night and she would go there with really good claims in that from that mark.
You’d expect her to be at least an 80 filly on what she’s shown so far and will certainly improve as her stamina is more
tested.’
Systems Corner
They come from Ireland bearing gifts
A lot of my systems analysis comes from ‘hunches’ when you are betting. We are always learning at this game and for a
while now I have always thought that the ‘big’ trainers in Ireland nearly always have the market leaders and are always
seeming very short in the market for what they have achieved in the form book. So after taking a look there were some
interesting results and on this occasion my ‘hunch’ was pretty much spot on.
If we were to lay any of the following four trainers runners: A P O’Brien, J S Bolger, John M Oxx and David Wachman when
they are market leader at Betfair SP then you would make money.
Overall: 1719 bets 610 winners 35.48% s/r +123.45 7.18% yield
*Data since 2009. Paying 5% commission on Betfair and laying at Betfair SP.
Always a good start when looking at a systematic approach that with no filtering or messing about it makes a yield of over
7% at the worst possible commission rate. So with a bit of filtering the results are sure to significantly improve on that and
we can look at areas where trainers are weaker than others. For example:
A P O’Brien - market leaders, four or more starts in last year.
232 bets 70 winners 30.17% s/r +59.63 25.70% yield
‘Could the trainer work his horses too hard and the horses have peaked within those four starts that season?’
J S Bolger - market leaders, fillies.
168 bets 41 winners 24.40% s/r +32.49 19.34% yield
‘Great trainer and renowned for having his horses ‘hard-fit’ on the track, do male horses take his style of training better
than fillies as a general rule?’
John M Oxx - market leaders, all weather (Dundalk)
36 bets 4 winners 11.11% s/r +23.93 66.48% yield
‘John Oxx primarily trains for the Aga Khan, whose bloodstock are bred for stamina and some with soft ground pedigrees.
Perhaps not so suited to the artificial surface of Dundalk?’
David Wachman - market leaders, turf runners only
187 bets 53 winners 28.34% s/r +36.02 19.26% yield
‘Does David Wachman inherit the majority of the USA breeds that might prefer the artificial surface of Dundalk?’
With filters applied to each trainer the results as a group are as follows:
623 bets 168 winners 26.97% s/r +152.07 26.97% yield
An almighty impressive return with just some simple and perhaps logical filters applied. A notable omission from Ireland’s
biggest flat trainers is Dermot Weld, who neither makes money backing or laying. One good explanation why the bigger
Irish-trained-runners are over-bet is that they employ the largest number of ‘stable staff’ and as we know ‘stable staff’
have punters. So they are telling their punters the good ones and they end up too short in the market. There wouldn’t be
the strength in depth of bigger trainers in Ireland like over here in Britain, which probably explains also why the market is
a bit lop-sided. It’s certainly and impressive statistic over a significant period of time and for now it would pay to take a
stance against horses that are favourite trained by the above.
John Smiths Cup
Saturday 12th July, 14:55, York, CH4 & RUK
14:55 York - 55TH JOHN SMITH´S CUP (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+)
Winner: £93,375 Runners: 20 Distance: 1m2f88y Going: Good To Firm Channel: CH4
Key Trends:
16/16 winners were 3-5yo (6yo+ 0/72)
16/16 winners ran no more than 4 times in the last 3 months
16/16 winners ran over 8-10f LTO (any other distance 0/71)
16/16 winners were stall 19 or lower
16/16 winners carried less than 9st 10lbs
Key trends qualifiers: Bold Sniper, Tahira, Nabucco, Queensberry Rules, Tarikhi, Saxo Jack, Pacific Heights, Red Avenger, Hi
There, Ingleby Angel, Starboard.
Analysis:
It’s certainly a tough renewal to get to the bottom of, with only half the field eliminated through the ‘key-trends’, still at
least we managed to eliminate Clever Cookie (the LTO trip angle), Farraaj (Draw) and Chancery (age).
Not really anything negative to say about joint market leader BOLD SNIPER, comes here in great form on the back of a
second place in the Wolferton at Royal Ascot. His draw in stall seven is fine, trip and ground is fine but at 8/1 doesn’t
really get me excited enough to want to bet Sir Michael Stoute’s gelding. I just felt it would be good to have a look at a few
at a price in this and I had a shortlist of three, PACIFIC HEIGHTS, HI THERE and STARBOARD.
I thought Dale Swift gave PACIFIC HEIGHTS a bit of a stinker in the Hunt Cup if I’m honest and I think he’s still on the
upgrade even off a mark of 100. The horse was produced to virtually lead the field a good way out and there was no
wonder he flattened out in the closing stages. The one thing that puts me off Brian Ellison’s five-year-old-gelding is the
trip. If they ride him handy, which in all probability they will (wasn’t flying home in the Cambridgeshire last Autumn held
up) I would be very worried of him lasting home in this kind of company and he has never convinced me before when
trying beyond a mile. His grinding style is more suited to Chester, Beverley etc over the mile on the front end so that’s why
I’m not going to be backing him at the 25/1 available.
If the heavens had opened like at Newmarket on Thursday and Friday, I would have been all over HI THERE at 25/1. I
liked the way Ryan Moor rode him at Epsom last time, when held up last off a slow pace, letting the horse come home in
his own time once he knew the front end wasn’t coming back. He was partnered by Samantha Bell when behind CLEVER
COOKIE over this course and distance earlier in the year, so with George Chaloner up I felt this horse had more than
squeak at the 25/1 available. Sadly the ground looks like being very quick on Saturday with rain looking unlikely and that
tempers enthusiasm, could be one to back if the rain does come at all on Saturday.
The one I feel is MASSIVELY under-rated here is the David Simcock trained STARBOARD. Formerly trained by John Gosden
and then sold to run in France under the handling of Tony Clout, STARBOARD just couldn’t recapture the heights that saw
him go close in group two and three company and earn an official rating of 112 back in the Autumn of 2012. Bought by
David Simcock at Arqana for 70,000 guineas, the son of Zamindar acquitted himself well off marks of 100+ out in Dubai,
never beaten more than half-a-dozen lengths on each occasion. His reappearance on holding ground at Goodwood in a
listed contest, wouldn’t have suited and he is a fair but better than his run in the ‘Hunt Cup’ at Ascot after being switched
right over from his low draw to the stands side and then broadsided about a furlong out when staying on nicely. The
William Haggas trained QUEENSBERRY RULES was only just in front of him that day and and is around 14/1 for this race.
So at a very juicy 50/1 back up to his optimum trip of ten furlongs and conditions ideal he is worth a nibble now he is 17lbs
lower than he was less than eighteen months ago. He certainly doesn’t deserve to be outsider of the entire field.
Advice: 0.5pts e/w Starboard @ 50/1 generally available (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4)
July Cup
Saturday 12th July, 15:50, Newmarket, CH4 & RUK
15:50 Newmarket - DARLEY JULY CUP(British Champions Series And Global Sprint Challenge) (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+)
Winner: £289,221 Runners: 16 Distance: 6f July Going: Soft Channel: CH4
Key Trends:
16/16 winners 1 or 2 runs in last month.
16/16 winners finished in the first 7 LTO
Draw Stats: Only twice has the July Cup been run on ground softer than good. In 2012 the first three home were drawn
10,11 and 12 (13 ran) and in 2002 the winner Continent was draw in stall 13 of 14.
Key Trends Qualifiers: High draws might just reverse the stands side trend here if the ground is SOFT, Aljamaaheer, Jack
Dexter, Slade Power, Tropics, Hot Streak. No horse in the last 16 runnings of this has won this by not running at least once
in the last month and that rules out Spanish raider NOOZOH CANARIAS.
Analysis:
Obviously writing this preview in advance is going on what I think the ground will be like on Saturday afternoon.
Newmarket can dry out quickly so the ground may not ride as testing as we think but for this preview I am taking it that
the ground will be soft on Saturday.
The Jim Goldie trained JACK DEXTER was available at 40/1 yesterday, but punters were quick to take that and the value has
now gone, a best priced 25/1. This race for me could well be skewed by the draw bias and the only two July Cups in recent
memory have both been won by high draws. JACK DEXTER hasn’t had his favoured conditions as often as he’d like when in
peak form and there isn’t that much between him and the likes of the 5/2 favourite SLADE POWER, when the ground ends
up on the soft side of good. Indeed there was only a neck between then in the Champions Sprint over 6f on soft ground at
Ascot last autumn and there may not be that much between them again. At the prices it seems Jim Goldie’s charge is still
OK, but I’m not prepared to go in at 25/1 or 20/1 when earlier it was 40/1.
ALJAMAAHEER is certainly not going to appreciate too much cut in the ground, Paul Hanagan has said so when he rode
him to win at Newbury earlier in his career. HOT STREAK doesn’t mind the ground being soft but 6f on soft ground would
be the limit of his stamina and he doesn’t make as much appeal as the selection at around the 12/1 mark.
Advice: NO BET at the prices on offer.
Other Saturday Bets
16:15 Ascot - 2pts win Kinshasha @ 7/1 Coral
‘Really liked this colt when it won at Kempton, because his style of running will always disguise the margin of superiority
from the handicapper. He’s better than an 89 rated horse and this sort of test on a galloping track such as this is right up
this son of Pivotal’s street. He’s from a super family that the trainer knows very well and the mother was a full sister to St
Leger winner Milan. His improvement won’t stop here and he’s the type that should go beyond handicap company as he
keeps progressing. A nice horse that we should be betting, whilst he continues to progress.’
20:30 Salisbury - 2pts win Pink Diamond @ 13/2 Bet 365
‘She’s been prepped for a handicap mark and connections must be pretty pleased with the mark of 57 allotted as I’m
certain she’s considerably better than that. The run at Windsor was quite eye-catching and if you look at the form around
her most are rated quite a good deal higher than what she is. She had the likes of subsequent winner Beakers and Num
Nums behind her that day and the fact she finished behind one of her rivals Highland Stardust on her third qualifying run,
shouldn’t put you off. She’s from a decent staying family and in a very bad race I will be astounded if she doesn’t go close
in this.’
World Cup Final
Germany v Argentina
Sunday 13th July, 20:00, Estádio Maracanã, Brazil, BBC 1 & ITV
Well here we are after a month’s worth of some superb action, the World Cup Final is upon us. As soon as Argentina
slotted the winning penalty away against Netherlands on Wednesday evening I had my prices for the final at the ready.
Betting Weekly 100% book Germany 7/4 2/1 Draw 9/4 Argentina
Germany are too short at a best priced 11/8, whilst a shade of value lies in either the draw at around 9/4 on Betfair or
Argentina at 13/5 with Bet Victor, looks a ‘smidgeon’ of value. You would expect the betting public to favour Germany
after their ‘demolition job’ on the host nation in the semi-final. However you cannot let that performance cloud your
judgement. Germany just turned up and do what Germany do and that’s punish sides that aren’t organised or disciplined
enough at the back. Brazil had no shape or leadership and without their captain Thiago Silva were simply woeful at
the back. Argentina are a completely different beast to Brazil in terms of how they set up and play, they have the best
defensive midfielder in the competition in Javier Mascherano, who looks to break anything up in front of the back line and
he is very waste less with the ball. Germany won’t be able to walk through Argentina like they did Brazil in a game that
sadly for the neutral is going to be relatively slow build ups and possession football, akin to a Serie-A game in my view.
Germany are averaging an impressive 584 passes per game to Argentina’s 497 and although that looks like Joachim
Loew’s side have a considerable possession edge, you have to take into account that the semi-final against Brazil will have
bolstered those statistics. Both these teams like to keep the ball and will be looking to play patiently trying to find a killer
pass that will unlock either defence. It’s going to be very tactical and the only way it won’t be is if the cancelling out of
both sides can be unlocked by a defensive error or a piece of brilliance by one of the many superb players on the pitch.
Germany do have a slight edge in that they have had an extra day to recover for the final, something that just can’t be
dismissed in a month long, seven game tournament such as this.
The prices in a lot of markets are correct as you would expect in a game of this magnitude. Under 2.5 goals is 1/2, the 0-0
draw is as short as 11/2 with some firms and is a best priced 13/2 with Coral. That makes a little bit of appeal but when
the Under 2.5 goals is priced up so short then usually so are the correct scores. So we need to be looking for something a
bit ‘left field’ for our bets and the first bet is the 6/4 available for a 0-0 scoreline at half time. Unless a piece of brilliance
or a mistake happens then it’s going to take some time for either of these teams to work each other out and if like me you
are thinking this is going to be low scoring then we may as well take the 6/4 with Paddy Power for a shut out in the first
half. If it’s 1/2 for the under 2.5 goals then you wouldn’t be sat on anything special with your bet if there was a first half
goal. 6/4 isn’t MASSIVE value but it fits with my gut instinct and we aren’t staking like it’s a maximum.
The second bet of the game, which I feel does offer a fair bit of value, (stakes are
kept low because of the unlikelihood of you getting anything meaningful on) is the
key-player in this game JAVIER MASCHERANO to get the man-of-the-match award
at a joyous 20/1 with Skybet. I say key-player because his performance will be so
important to Argentina winning and stopping Germany from doing so. The former
Liverpool defensive-midfielder is in superb form and despite just about getting
knocked out against the dutch, still won the man-of-the-match award. If the match
is going to go as I see it, then this has a major chance of coming in. If the game is
0-0 (a best priced 13/2 chance) then this fellow will be one of the favourites to win
the award I can guarantee it. Yet you have other chances also, a low scoring game
but with many key tackles, blocks etc could still give us a shout of getting the bet up.
There is no way he can be a 20/1 chance with only 22 players on the pitch to being
crowned with this award.
That’s how I see the game. Germany are a well oiled machine and Argentina will probe patiently like they always do
looking for that killer ball that will unlock a defence. Both sides have the players to do it but you sense the occasion and
what’s at stake might just prevent that from happening.
Advice: 1.5pts 0-0 at half time @ 6/4 PP, 0.5pts Javier Mascherano to be awarded man of the match @ 20/1 Skybet.
The Open Championship
17th to 20th July, Royal Liverpool, BBC
After watching Lee Westwood painfully throwing his chances away in the final round last year with some nervy iron play
and again some woeful putting I am wanting to side with a golfer who can consistently putt well. A lot is made about
being able to keep out of trouble in links golf for obvious reasons but for me the one that triumphs is the golfer that can
handle the greens and putt well over the four days.
Remarkably also looking at the last ten winners of ‘The Open’ (not British Open for American readers), recent form doesn’t
seem to be a problem. If you are fancying golfers at big prices don’t let the fact that they have missed the cut a few times
in recent outings. Nine of the last ten winners have missed the cut in one of their last five tournaments played, indeed out
of the last fifty tournaments played they had missed the cut sixteen times (nearly 1/3).
Last 10 years winners: (previous five tournements)
2013
Phil Mickelson
MC
2
2
MC
1
2012
Ernie Els
41
7
58
59
52
2011
Darren Clarke
45
63
46
MC
66
2010
Louis Oosthuizen
MC
21
20
MC
MC
2009
Stewart Cink
MC
22
8
27
MC
2008
Padraig Harrington
31
MC
4
36
1724
2007
Padraig Harrington
24
MC
MC
54
51
2006
Tiger Woods
20
22
3
MC
2
2005
Tiger Woods
11
MC
3
3
2
2004
Todd Hamilton
33
MC
MC
MC
59
Players that have won on links-esque courses in 2014.
European Tour:
Thomas Aiken (Africa Open) Ross Fisher (Tshwane Open) Alejandro Canizares (Trophee Hassan II) Daniel Brooks (Madeira
Islands Open) Tongchai Jaidee (Nordea Masters)
PGA Tour: (obviously the US courses don’t have much links golf but the courses below do have similarities)
Zach Johnson (Hyundai TOC) Jimmy Walker (Sony Open) (Pebble Beach Pro-Am) Kevin Stadler (Phoenix Open) Matt Kuchar
(RBC Heritage) Hideki Matsuyama (Memorial)
Leading contenders form into this with their best putts per round average: (prior to Scottish Open)
Rory McIlroy
6
1
15
23
MC
1.58
Adam Scott
14
38
1
4
9
1.60
Henrik Stenson
34
7
5
4
2
1.55
Tiger Woods
MC
41
1
25
MC
1.70
Martin Kaymer
29
12
1
MC
12
1.70
Justin Rose
4
25
MC
12
1
1.63
Graeme McDowell
62
24
28
6
1
1.71
Sergio Garcia
38
1
35
2
12
1.68
Phil Mickelson
11
MC
49
11
28
1.71
Jason Day
20
37
4
18
MC
1.67
Advice:
1pt e.w Henrik Stenson @ 18/1 Tote, Fred (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5,6)
0.5pts e/w Adam Scott @ 18/1 Tote, Fred (1/4 odds 1,2,3,4,5,6)
The Betting Shop
Best Bets This Weekend
Saturday 12th July 16:15 Ascot - 2pts win Kinshasha @ best morning odds
Saturday 12th July 20:30 Salisbury - 2pts win Pink Diamond @ best morning odds
Betting Weekly Profit/Loss On All Sports
Horseracing
+62.32
Specials
0.00
Football
+22.47
Politics
-3.00
Cricket
+3.83
Greyhounds
-9.00
Rugby
-2.09
Snooker
-2.00
F1
+8.32
Athletics
+6.00
Online
+25.32
Boxing
+7.12
Golf
+4.72
System Bets
+1.14
Tennis
-9.50
£
Total
+115.65
In Next Weeks Issue
•
•
•
•
In the spotlight with Middleham Park racing supremo Nick Bradley
Horse Racing from Newbury and Newmarket
Motor Sport - F1 German Grand Prix from Hockenheim
Darts - 2014 World Matchplay
Delighted to welcome professional punter and Ebor winning owner Dan Gilbert
in the spotlight this week. Dan is lovely chap that highlights what it’s like to be a
professional punter and how difficult mentally the game can be, even for the best.
Enjoy!!!
Tell us a bit about yourself Dan and how you got into horse racing and in particular betting for a living?
Being from Cheltenham there was always a good chance I’d get into racing and when I was around 15/16 I skipped school
one afternoon with some friends and went to Cheltenham as the Festival was on. It was the year Nahthen Lad won the
RSA and Klairon Davis won the Champion Chase and I couldn’t even see what was going on. I was stood in the stands and I only knew what was winning from what the crowd was cheering on and after that I was completely gripped, started
watching racing every Saturday.
I went from betting as a normal punter to working in a betting shop where I got to watch racing all day and I used to have a
few bets a day just to get my nose in front.
The introduction of Betfair was when my betting really took off because you could bet in-running and there were so many
different ways to make money. I’d keep trying different things until I found one that worked but even then I had years when
I would bash my head against a wall. I’d get a result and get paid then do it in with a couple of days and it would take all
month to get back in front.
Where do you place the majority of bets, would it be bookmakers or the exchanges like Betfair or Betdaq?
99% of my bets go through Betfair, mostly in the last 10 minutes to the off. I try and get on earlier though if the liquidity is
there. It’s so hard to get on with the bookmakers I don’t even bother trying anymore unless it’s a big meeting when you
have a better chance of getting a bet on.
What would be a typical working day be like in the life of Dan Gilbert?
I work from home - I spend the mornings going through the form as much as I can. I just use the racing post site, watching
a lot of race replays, I have plenty of notes about horses on their which I update throughout the afternoons after each race
- that’s really useful. I don’t use speed figures at all and I just try and look for horses I either want to back, or lay. I probably
do more laying than backing and if there’s nothing I can think to do pre race I try and think of an in running angle in.
I just play race to race throughout the afternoon, trying to stick as closely as possible to the bets I’ve come up with in the
morning. Some days I might not have had a chance to do any work in the morning, but I will still bet on it in the afternoon.
I’m not the type of punter that can just sit and watch racing without having had a bet. With anything - you will concentrate
a lot more on what you’re watching if you’ve got a bet on it - but I will try and play a bit steadier those days anyway.
What methods do you use for winner finding Dan, there are many variables in winner finding but what do you like to
look for in a horse to back?
None (laughs), I prefer laying at the moment to be honest. The form goes up and down so much that I’m constantly
changing how I play in terms of how I feel. If I go two or three weeks without hardly backing a winner then I go off trying
to back winners and think it’s going to be easier laying. Other times everything I back pre-play will miss the break, be
slowly away or gets caught three wide pulling hard so I’ll wait until it’s run two or three furlongs and if everything has
gone right have a smaller bet in running and that way it can stop the rot and bring your confidence back.
I keep an eye out for horses that have run well despite not having had the run of the race , like being held up in slowly run
races or horses that got taken on for the lead, that got caught wide, horses that look like they are well handicapped when
things drop right for them. It’s important to know which handicaps were strong and which ones were weak though as
there’s no point backing a horse to win a strong race if it was unlucky in a weak race last time. So mainly I’m just backing
what I make strong handicap form-lines against weak ones.
Do you prefer betting on the flat or over jumps?
I think in-running, the jumps are easier because the race lasts longer but it’s difficult to compare the two because in the
winter when there are only two meetings you have so much more time during the day to look at the races, whereas in
the summer there’s so much more going on with the night meetings you can never get through everything but in general I
prefer the flat to bet on.
Would you describe yourself as a pre play punter or an in play punter, how much percentage wise is your business
distributed between the two betting mediums?
I’d say it’s about 50/50 at the moment, I’ve gone through phases where I’ve had to ban myself from playing in-running
because my discipline isn’t there. It’s much easier to keep your discipline pre-play than in-running, but like I said before
sometimes I’m more in-running because I’m so sick of getting it wrong pre-play I’d rather wait a few furlongs and make
sure everything is going alright.
Do you feel that in play betting on horse racing via the exchanges is dying?
No not really I think there is less liquidity of an evening or on a Sunday but in general I can’t say I’ve really noticed. Preplay, the markets are weak in a morning but that’s because the prices are wrong and that a lot of people have to wait close
to the off to be able to get a bet on.
Do you think your methods in winner finding will stand the test of time, would say you be able to make your betting pay if
Betfair wasn’t available?
I’d be completely knackered if Betfair wasn’t available and it would have a massive impact on my life so touch wood that’s
never going to happen. If Betfair was to go I would probably either set up a tipping line or open my own bookmakers.
I think if Betfair was to go you’d see more bookmakers or a similar exchange model open up, but I can’t really ever see
Betair not being here.
Most punters fall down through discipline when betting, do you ever need to take any measures to stop yourself from
doing too much money?
Yes, constantly. I’ve got a deposit limit on Betfair to stop me losing too much when things aren’t going right, because when
you’re out of form it’s easy to lose too much. It’s also really hard to keep your head when you’re on bad runs so deposit
limits stop you from losing it mentally. It does make it harder to get going though when you wake up the next morning and
can only put so much in. If you don’t get off to a good start straight away then you can be doing the same thing for a week
which can be frustrating but the limit does mean you can stop the rot.
I find that when you’re winning you can win for a good few days. I tend to go through periods where I’ll hit a stumbling
block and it will take me a while to get going again, sometimes that takes a complete overhaul of what I’m doing. I start
working harder and being much more disciplined, this usually brings an upturn in form and I’ll have a good couple of weeks
then I start to lose motivation a bit but continue betting because it’s easier. Then the tide will turn and I can sometimes
start to bet quite badly again and get out of form. That whole process just goes on and on for me.
What advice would you give to anyone thinking about going full time at betting for a living?
I’d want them to be sure they were making money in the first place and I’d tell them to really work hard, as the more you
put into it the more you get out of it. However you have to know what you’re doing in the first place. I’d also tell them to
specialise in something because if you try and bet on everything in every sport you won’t be as effective. You want to be
an expert in something whether that be sprints or staying races. You want to know as much about what you’re betting on
as possible so you’re better off picking three or four races and spending an hour on each than trying to go through every
race and only be able to spend ten minutes on it.
You’re a very successful owner Dan, winning the Ebor with Moyenne Corniche and the Irish Cesarewitch with
Montefeltro. What do you look for when buying your horses?
I tend to look for a horse that I could do something different with. When I bought Moyenne Corniche I was looking for
something to go hurdling with and I wanted a horse that might suit jumping and needed upping in trip, so I stepped him
up to from eight to twelve furlongs to see if he would stay and he stayed fine. That opened up lots more races for him,
but unfortunately he couldn’t jump when we schooled him at home so I was lucky that the step up in trip angle worked
out. That’s what I tend to look for, those horses that need something different like horses that have been running over too
short a trip and need further or visa versa. Ones that have been running at two miles and could probably do with dropping
back in trip. I also look at horses that have been jumping and don’t look like they are enjoying it to bring them back on the
flat. You have to try get a bit of value whenever you’re buying horses or it’s certainly not worth it.
With the odds stacked against making ownership profitable with the low prize money, why do you feel the need to
persist in racehorse ownership?
I rarely buy a horse just because I want to buy one. I think it’s hard not to buy a horse sometimes especially when you see
one in a claimer that you know exactly what you what to do with it or you see something that is underrated. If I think that
horse wants a mile and a half and it’s only ever tried over ten furlongs, the only way to find out is to buy it yourself and
stick it with a decent trainer and have a crack at it. If you’re right you reap the rewards. It’s very hard to get your money
back through prize money and with some horses you do your brains in if you get it wrong as you spend a year making
excuses for them and if after eighteen months you still haven’t won a race you’re left with £30,000 worth of training fees
on top of the initial purchase price.
Of the horses you own can you give Betting Weekly readers a horse to follow in your colours?
I’d probably say Totalize as he’s going to try and go for the Ebor, I’m not sure he’d win that but I’d also look forward to the
next time he goes over hurdles now that we know he goes on good ground. I’ve always thought he was a heavy ground
horse and the ground was so heavy last year it might not have suited him, so I just really hope he stays sound so I can have
a good run with him on better ground.
If you were king for a day and could change any rules in British Horseracing what would you do to enhance the sport?
I know a lot of people are saying it but there are too many races on a Saturday. There are too many really good meetings
on a Saturday when though the week you’re scraping the barrel looking for good handicaps. Then on Saturday you don’t
have the time to go through them all if there are four big meetings and some of the better races get lost with Channel 4
not even televising some of it. So I’d like to see some of the big handicaps moved back to mid-week.
I’d also bring in central stewarding where you have to answer to the same people no matter what track you’re riding at. If
we can have professional stewards somewhere central watching the same things we do then that is bound to bring more
consistency than what local stewards offer. I think it would have a massive impact on the sport, punters would have more
faith and it would bring more satisfactory outcomes to things like stewards enquiries. Also the things you see on the BHA
site, where the stewards ‘noted an explanation’ you see it all the time and it means nothing really. Whereas if it’s the
same people noting them time after time you can build a more accurate picture of that horse or jockey and more can be
done about it.
I would also like sort out the starts for national-hunt racing as well. If they can get them in a proper line for the Grand
national with forty runners then they can do it in the Champion Hurdle with ten runners. Everyone spends half the year
trying to figure out what will win and then one horse nicks three lengths from the start and the one you’ve backed is three
lengths behind it. This wouldn’t happen in the Olympics, would it?
What does Dan Gilbert do to wind down from a very difficult sport to make money from in his free time?
I quite like watching other sports mainly football, tennis and golf. I play a bit of golf and it’s pretty standard stuff really. I
like going to the Australian Open tennis and while I’m out there I’ll be betting on that for two weeks, I’m a complete mug
on tennis betting so it completely ruins the holiday and I end up having a massive bet on the final to try and get level on
the two weeks. In football I bet on the Premier League and do my brains most weeks. I tend to enjoy sport more when
I’ve had a bet on it and sometimes if you watch enough of it you think you know enough about it and then find out you’re
wrong. Really I should be betting much smaller than I do on sport.
In five feet of water, grizzly bear can stand up, great white shark can swim, where is Dan Gilbert’s money going on a
fight to the death?
I’ll go for the shark, a Grizzly is going to move quite slow in five feet of water and he’s not going to be that agile whereas a
shark can swim off line it up and attack and get the first bite so I’d say 1/3 the shark.

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