Lord Ashcroft International Business School Finance PhD proposals, June 2014 Projects Project 1: How to capture risk in financial market? – From the view of high-frequency finance ................................................................................................................................ 2 Project 2: Systemic risk and sovereign bond crisis − Empirical evidence of emerging market economies’ sovereign bond spread. .................................................................................... 3 Project 3: Financial contagion and contagion across developed economies (US, UK) and emerging economies (BRIC) ............................................................................................... 4 Project 4: Is the life of the company secondary to the short run desires of executives and shareholders? ..................................................................................................................... 5 Project 5: A Bayesian Analysis of Payday Loan Companies, Financially Distressed Consumers and Financial Regulation. ................................................................................. 6 Project 6: European Integration Under the Scope: A Dynamic Financial Equilibrium Model of Skewed Financial Markets ............................................................................................... 7 Project 7: Trust and Bank Lending to Small and Medium Enterprises.................................. 9 Project 8: Business Angels and their Network ................................................................... 10 Project 9: Financial Contagion through network of banking exchanges ............................. 11 Project 10: Crowd-funding for investment in low income countries: the role of ICT ............ 12 Page 1 of 12 2014-06-19 Lord Ashcroft International Business School Project 1: How to capture risk in financial market? – From the view of high-frequency finance Objectives: After the recent subprime crisis, academic researchers and industrial investors devoted huge attention to high-frequency financial modelling because of its outstanding performance during the depressed crisis period. This research is aim to present a unified view of high-frequency time series methods with particular emphasis on foreign exchange, interest rate spot, and futures markets. The scope of this study is also applicable to other markets, such as equity and commodity markets with empirical evidences from emerging markets (such as China). Reference literatures: Dacorogna, M., R. Gencay, U. Muller, R. Olsen, and O. Pictet, 2001, An introduction to high-frequency finance, Academic Press. Zhou, B. 2012, High-frequency data and volatility in foreign exchange rates, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 14(1), 45-52. Martens, M., and J. Zein, 2004, Predicting financial volatility: High-frequency time-series forecasts vis-àvis implied volatility, Journal of Futures Markets, 24(11), 1005-1028. Methodology: Various methods can be adopted depend on the financial market and financial time series data focused on. For example, risk sensitive performance measures and be employed for varieties of financial markets and currency risk hedging can be adopted for foreign exchange market. Additionally, ARCH and GARCH type models (i.e. HARCH, EMA-HARCH) would be applied during modelling heterogeneous volatilities. First supervisor: Proposed second supervisor: Dr. Congmin Peng Page 2 of 12 2014-06-19 Lord Ashcroft International Business School Project 2: Systemic risk and sovereign bond crisis − Empirical evidence of emerging market economies’ sovereign bond spread. Objectives: This research discusses financial crisis and systemic risk, with particular emphasis on amplification and propagation mechanisms during financial crises and the measurement of systemic risk in order to achieve full scope understanding of sovereign bond crisis. Finally, the study is applied to emerging market economies’ sovereign bond spread. Reference literatures: Abreu, D., and M. K. Brunnermeier, 2003, Bubbles and crashes. Econometrica, 71(1), 173-204. Brunnermeier, M. K., and M. Oehmke, 2013, Bubbles, financial crises, and systemic risk. Handbook of the Economics of Finance, 2, Amsterdam. Manasse, P., N. Roubini., and A. Schimmelpfennig, 2003, Predicting Sovereign Debt Crises, IMF Working Paper. Sgherri, S., and E. Zoli, 2009, Euro Area Sovereign Risk During the Crisis. IMF Working Paper. Kletzer, K. L., 2003, Sovereign Bond Restructuring: Collective Action Clauses and Official Crisis Intervention. IMF Working Paper. Methodology: Varieties measure of systemic risk would be discussed. The CoVaR measure of systemic risk proposed by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2008) will be applied to investigate sovereign bond spread in emerging markets. First supervisor: Proposed second supervisor: Dr. Congmin Peng Page 3 of 12 2014-06-19 Lord Ashcroft International Business School Project 3: Financial contagion and contagion across developed economies (US, UK) and emerging economies (BRIC) Objectives: This research interprets the contagion metaphor, discusses and clarifies the definition of contagion, as well as distinguishes contagion from markets’ correlation, inter-dependence, and spill-over. This research also focuses on the channels of contagion – the avenues by which financial crisis is transmitted. Meanwhile, contagion across developed economies (such as US, UK, Germany) and emerging economies (BRIC) will be studied. This research is aim to spread and draw attention among the best thinking on financial contagion by specialists from top universities and key international financial institutions including central banks, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank. Reference literatures: Dungey, M., Fry, R., Gonzalez-Hermosillo, B., and V. L. Martin, 2005, Empirical modelling of contagion: a review of methodologies. Quantitative Finance 5 (1), 9-24. Dungey, M., Fry, R., Gonzalez-Hermosillo, B., and V. L. Martin, 2011, Transmission of financial crises and contagion. Oxford University Press, Oxford. Forbes, K. J., and R. Rigobon, 2001, Measuring contagion: conceptual and empirical issues. In: Claessens, S., and K. J. Forbes, (Eds.), International financial crisis. Kluwer, Boston, pp. 43-66. Forbes, K. J., and R. Rigobon, 2002, No contagion, only interdependence: measuring stock market comovements. The journal of finance 5, 2223-2261. Masson, P., 1999, Contagion: macroeconomic models with multiple equilibria. Journal of International Money and Finance 18, 587-602. Masson, P., 1999, Contagion: monsoonal effects, spill-overs and jumps between multiple equilibria. In: Agenor, P., Miller, M., and D. Vines, (Eds.), The Asian crisis: causes, contagion and consequences. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Pesaran, M. H., and A. Pick, 2007, Econometric issues in the analysis of contagion. Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control 31, 1245-1277. Pukthuanthong, K., and R. Roll, 2012, Internationally correlated jumps. ECB working paper 1436, European Central Bank. Methodology: Base on the frame work of Markov-switching model to develop a model of asset return dynamics considering mutually exciting jump processes. First supervisor: Proposed second supervisor: Dr. Congmin Peng Page 4 of 12 2014-06-19 Lord Ashcroft International Business School Project 4: Is the life of the company secondary to the short run desires of executives and shareholders? Objectives: During the latter part of the 80s and again in the early nineties it was asserted by some that Anglo Saxon markets were detrimental to the investment decisions undertaken by companies. It was suggested that investment in the UK failed to mirror the then more successful bank based economies. It was claimed that the market, in this case stock market investors, had pressures placed upon them to frequently churnover their portfolios in response to increases in investment and the subsequent reductions in short term earnings, this was something that was vehemently denied by institutional investors. A second and more recent charge against managers and indeed many shareholders has recently arisen alongside the first charge. This is the claim that it is not just shareholders who are short term focussed but the managers themselves due to the nature of how they are paid. That is they have an interest in inflating earnings in the short term at the long run expense of the firm to inflate their personal wealth. If these charges are true, this has significant consequences for the lives of companies and their economies. The objective of the research would be to establish whether there is evidence to support these charges. Reference literatures: Adams, Renée & Ferreira, Daniel, One Share, One Vote: The Empirical Evidence, ECGI Finance Working Paper No. 177/2007. Bassanini, Franco & Reviglio, Edoardo, Financial Stability, Fiscal Consolidation, and Long-term Investment After the Crisis, OECD, FINANCIAL MARKET TRENDS (2011), ISS. 1 Bebchuk, Lucian / Cohen, Alma & Ferrell, Allen, What Matters in Corporate Governance, 22 REVIEW OF FINANCIAL STUDIES 783 Core, John / Guay, Wayne & Rusticus, Tjomme, Does Weak Governance Cause Weak Stock Returns? An Examination of Firm Operating Performance and Analysts’ Expectations, 61 JOURNAL OF FINANCE 655 Crotty, James, Owner-Manager Conflict and Financial Theories of Investment Instability: A Critical Assessment of Keynes, Tobin and Minsky, 12 JOURNAL OF POST KEYNESIAN ECONOMICS 519 Ferrarini, Guido / Moloney, Niamh & Vespro, Cristina, Executive Remuneration in the EU: Comparative Law and Practice, ECGI Working Paper 9/2003. Franks, Julian & Mayer, Colin, Corporate Ownership and Control in the UK, Germany and France, 9 JOURNAL OF APPLIED CORPORATE FINANCE 30 Grullon, Gustavo & Ikenberry, David, What Do We Know About Stock Repurchases?, 13 JOURNAL OF APPLIED CORPORATE FINANCE 31 Harper Ho, Virginia, ‘Enlightened Shareholder Value’: Corporate Governance Beyond the ShareholderStakeholder Divide, 36 THE JOURNAL OF CORPORATION LAW 60 Prentice, D & Holland, P (Editors), (1993) Contemporary Issues In Corporate Governance, Clarendon Press Oxford, Allen & Overy. Methodology To identify shareholder potential short termism the researcher could look at shareholder ownership, changes in the ownership of individual companies, shareholder activism and the policies of investment funds. The researcher should look at the macro levels of Investment and ratios of UK investment relative to similar companies with international benchmarks. To identify potential interests of companies the researcher should investigate how remuneration policies work for a significant part of the FTSE. Pay rates and levels could be looked at and compared to International benchmarks. Levels of investment would be investigated relative to pay policies. First Supervisor: Second Supervisor: Mark Cleary Page 5 of 12 2014-06-19 Lord Ashcroft International Business School Project 5: A Bayesian Analysis of Payday Loan Companies, Financially Distressed Consumers and Financial Regulation. Objectives: Payday loans are small short-term loans that a borrower must repay or renew on his/her next payday. In the UK where payday lending is unregulated, many terms of these loans are not monitored by the Financial Conduct Authority, ostensibly failing to protect the consumer from excessively burdensome lending practices. The existing literature on payday loans has primarily focused on estimating causal effects of access to those loans, including work by Morse (2011), Skiba and Tobacman (2009) and Melzer (2011). Using a triple difference approach this paper estimates how payday loan regulation affects borrower behaviour, specifically how much they choose to borrow, how many times they choose to renew the loan, and whether or not they choose to default. Company-level variation in maximum loan sizes and renewal caps are used as exclusion restrictions for identification purposes. We pay particular attention to the calculation of posterior predictive distributions that summarise the sensitivities of borrower behaviour to various changes in company-level policies. Reference Literature: Chib, S., Jacobi, L., 2007. Modeling and calculating the effect of treatment at baseline from panel outcomes. Journal of Econometrics 140, 781–801. Deb, P., Munkin, M.K., Trivedi, P.K., 2006. Bayesian analysis of the two-part model with endogeneity: application to health care expenditure. Journal of Applied Econometrics 21, 1081–1099. Elliehausen, G., Lawrence, E., 2001. Payday advance credit in America: an analysis of customer demand. Georgetown University Credit Research Centre Monograph No. 35. Flannery, M.J., Samolyk, K., 2005. Payday lending: do the costs justify the price? FDIC Centre for Financial Research Working Paper No. 2005/09. Frühwirth-Schnatter, S., 1994. Data augmentation and dynamic linear models. Journal of Time Series Analysis 15, 183–202. Frühwirth-Schnatter, S., 2001. Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation of classical and dynamic switching and mixture models. Journal of the American Statistical Association 96, 194–209. Frühwirth-Schnatter, S., 2004. Estimating marginal likelihoods for mixture and Markov switching models using bridge sampling techniques. Econometrics Journal 7, 143–167. Geweke, J., 2007. Interpretation and inference in mixture models: simple MCMC works. Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 3529–3550. Geweke, J., Gowrisankaran, G., Town, R.J., 2003. Bayesian inference for hospital quality in a selection model. Econometrica 71 (4), 1215–1283. Jeliazkov, I., Graves, J., Kutzbach, M., 2008. Fitting and comparison of models for multivariate ordinal outcomes. Advances in Econometrics: Bayesian Econometrics 23, 115–156. Kleibergen, F., van Dijk, H.K., 1998. Bayesian simultaneous equations analysis using reduced rank structures. Econometric Theory 14, 701–743. Kloek, T., van Dijk, H.K., 1978. Bayesian estimates of equation system parameters: an application of integration by Monte Carlo. Econometrica 46 (1), 1–19. Lancaster, A., 2004. An Introduction to Modern Bayesian Econometrics. Blackwell Publishing. Model: Given this assumed decision-making structure, the model we employ is a nonlinear triangular simultaneous equation model (SEM). To allow for flexibility in modelling the distribution of our outcomes, we will employ a finite Gaussian mixture model. To test for robustness, the Cox Proportional Hazard Model (Cox 1972) will be used. First Supervisor: Dr Hassaan Khan Page 6 of 12 2014-06-19 Lord Ashcroft International Business School Project 6: European Integration Under the Scope: A Dynamic Financial Equilibrium Model of Skewed Financial Markets Objectives: The last 20 years have seen two spectacular episodes of financial instability. First, stock prices experienced an unprecedented increase and subsequent collapse around the turn of the millennium. This was followed by the dramatic rise and fall of world-wide housing prices, culminating in the financial crisis of 2007-2008. These movements in financial prices were large enough to reawaken interest in asset price bubbles and the way they affect the real economy. In addition, the collapse of major European economies like Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal and Ireland has increased awareness of the importance of financial institutions in macroeconomic fluctuations. The aim of this paper is to study through a general equilibrium theory the interaction of asset price bubbles, the banking system and the real economy in a general equilibrium model with credit constraints under conditions of risk and uncertainty. The current financial crisis and its impact on Eurozone economies is the most immediate motivation for wanting to study this interaction. General equilibrium models have proved to be relevant and useful for understanding economic interactions between markets and agents in complex modern economies and the determination of prices and quantities as a result of the latter interactions (Wing, 2004). The aim of the paper is to seek to explain the behaviour of supply, demand, and prices in a whole economy with several interacting markets, by seeking to prove that a set of prices exists that will result in an overall equilibrium under conditions of risk. To be more specific, in this project we will focus on an environment in which binding borrowing constraints lead to a shortage of means of saving and the use of dynamically inefficient investment technologies in equilibrium. This will create the conditions for bubbles to circulate, helping to improve the supply of liquidity but also exposing the economy to the risks of their bursting. Our innovation relative to the rest of the rational bubbles literature will be to model financial intermediation explicitly. In our model credit will flow along a chain that starts with a saver (individual/household), goes via a bank (financial sector) and ends up with a final borrowing firm (entrepreneurs). Whilst, we will assume that the government in this economy is to levy taxes on entrepreneurs and bail out the banking system when it makes losses. This realistic feature of our environment also has the implication, overlooked by the rest of the literature (Caballero and Krishnamurthy, 2006; Kocherkalota, 2009; Martin and Ventura, 2011), that asset price bubbles can be held by a variety of agents with very different economic roles in equilibrium. Our scope is to show that the identity of the bubble-holder is vital for understanding the effect of bubbles on the real economy. Bubbles held by banks expand output more during the boom phase and then lead to a much more severe contraction in credit and output when they finally burst. In contrast, bubbles held by ordinary savers have a relatively muted effect on the real economy. Our theoretical framework is based on observations from the EU and US labour, credit, and stock markets. This is because, the EU and US stock market has experienced booms and busts and these large swings may not be explained entirely by fundamentals. Reference Literature: Aviat, A., and N. Coeurdacier, 2007, “The Geography of Trade in Goods and Asset Holdings,”Journal of International Economics, 71, 22-51. Basak, S., and M. Gallmeyer, 2003, “Capital Market Equilibrium with Differential Taxation,”European Finance Review, 7, 121-159. Caballero, R., Gourinchas P.-O. and Farhi E., 2008, “An Equilibrium Model of ‘Global Imbalances’ and Low Interest Rates,”American Economic Review, 98(1), 358-93. Chan, K., V. Covrig and L. Ng, 2005, “What Determines the Domestic and Foreign Bias? Evidence from Mutual Fund Equity Allocations Worldwide,”Journal of Finance, 60, 1495-1534. Chari, K., and P. Henry, 2004, “Risk-Sharing and Asset Prices: Evidence from a Natural Experiment,”Journal of Finance, 59, 1295-1325. Cochrane, J., 2001, “Asset Pricing,”Princeton University Press, Princeton. Cochrane, J., F. Longstaff and P. Santa Clara, 2008, “Two Trees,”Review of Financial Studies, 21, 347-385. Coeurdacier, N., 2009, “Do Trade Costs in Goods Market Lead to Home Bias in Equities?,”Journal of International Economics, 77, 86-100. Coeurdacier, N., and P-O. Gourinchas, 2011, “When Bonds Matter: Home Bias in Goods and Assets,”CEPR Discussion paper, DP 8649. Page 7 of 12 2014-06-19 Lord Ashcroft International Business School Coeurdacier, N., and S. Guibaud, 2011, “International Portfolio Diversification Is Better Than You Think,”Journal of International Money and Finance, 30, 289-308. Coeurdacier, N., and H. Rey, 2011, “Home Bias in Open Economy Financial Macroeconomics,”Journal of Economic Literature, forthcoming. Model The research will introduce a state of the art Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model that incorporates market imperfections and highly non-linear market dynamics. Existing criticisms of existing DSGE-models stem from their inability to factor sticky prices and financial market frictions (Marosi and Massoud, 2012). A key challenge of this research will be to introduce “risk” and “crisis” factor into the model and the model’s ability to explain heterogeneous agent-based models. We will employ DSGE model since it explains how the economy evolves over time as well as embeds the random or unknown shocks (e.g., technological change, oil price volatility and uncertainty in macroeconomic policy making) that hit the economy. It also depicts the macro economy as the sum of individual choices and decisions made by firms, households, the government, and the central bank, according to their own preferences and views about the future. Our state-of-the-art DSGE model will complement rather than replaces existing models, since the micro-foundations of our model make them more suitable for policy evaluation because the relationships embodied will not change with changes in the policy environment. It will allow policy makers to think of economic linkages in a disciplined manner. First Supervisor: Dr Hassaan Khan Page 8 of 12 2014-06-19 Lord Ashcroft International Business School Project 7: Trust and Bank Lending to Small and Medium Enterprises Objectives: Banks play an essential role in financing small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) because SMEs face difficulties in accessing equity capital markets. Trust can be an important aspect of lending relationships since it reduces the costs of processing credit applications for banks and it helps SMEs to access the credit they need. The focus of this research is the lending relationship between a bank’s loan manager and the management of an SME. We investigate the role of loan managers’ trust in the SME management as a determinant of loan managers’ lending decisions. The final target is to understand how loan managers’ trust can affect both the SMEs and the bank. From the SMEs point of view, we investigate whether trust affects the amount of credit accessible to the firm, the amount of collateral requested, the interest rate charged as well as whether trust can help the SME to access all the finance it needs. From the bank’s point of view, we investigate whether trust can reduce the risk incurred by the bank in lending to SMEs and whether trust can be leveraged in order to improve the bank’s performance (higher profitability with a lower risk in the portfolio of loans). The analysis is carried out in the context of small banks with strong local ties. The focus on local banks is appropriate given the fact that they allow more room for manoeuvre to the loan managers and, thus, they are more able to exploit trust. On the contrary, large banks tend to make lending decisions almost exclusively based on facts and figures, which leaves limited room for manoeuvre to the loan managers and compromises their opportunities to leverage trust. Methodology: The data collection strategy is to assemble a longitudinal set of data (four waves collected at six-monthly intervals) on LM-SME relationships from UK banks. A bespoke data collection effort is required because no existing dataset meets the needs of this study. The data comprises a survey of loan managers’ evaluations of trust and other soft factors in randomly selected lending relationships, matched financial figures from the banks’ information systems, and a set of interviews with senior bank managers. All in all, present research aims to make a significant contribution to the debate on the role of trust in lending relationships, a topical issue in finance and entrepreneurship literature. Reference literatures: Moro, A., Fink, M. & Kautonen, T. (2013): How do banks assess entrepreneurial competence? The role of voluntary information disclosure. International Small Business Journal (ISBJ) DOI: 10:1177/0266242612458. Moro, A. & Fink, M. 2012. Loan managers’ trust and credit access for SMEs. Journal of Banking and Finance, DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2012.10.023. Moro, A., Fink, M. 2010. Perceived Competence and Credit Access of SMEs: Can Trust Change the Rules of the Game?. Small Business, Entrepreneurship, and Economic Recovery, Atlanta (GE), Vereinigte Staaten/USA, 26.10.–27,10. First Supervisor: Matthias Fink Second Supervisor: Andrea Moro Page 9 of 12 2014-06-19 Lord Ashcroft International Business School Project 8: Business Angels and their Network Objectives: Start-ups positively impact on economic development. Especially innovative and fast growing ventures significantly contribute to economic growth and structural change. However, due to the elevated risks attached to start-up projects, entrepreneurs face dramatic hurdles when it comes to attract financial resources. Loan managers at banks tend to be rather conservative in this respect. Providing an alternative access to financing Business Angels may step in and bridge this finance gap. Up to now, management literature on start-up financing has focused on the characteristics and motives of investors and the characteristics and needs of the entrepreneurs. The role of the Business Angels’ networks in the decision process whether or not to invest in a specific venture is still under researched. The project “Business Angels and their Network” strives to shed light on the role of the Business Angels’ networks in the investment decision process. In the first step, researchers approach successful Business Angels in Great Britain and conduct qualitative interviews. The findings of these interviews will constitute the basis for conducting a quantitative survey among Business Angels and their network members in in a second step. Reference literatures: Fink, M., A. Moro, H Landström, S. Avdeitchikova, 2013 “Business Angels’ Approach to Behavioural Uncertainty: The Role of Confidence and Trust” 2013 Babson College Frontiers of Entrepreneurship Conference – Lyon. Mason, C., Harrison, R.T., 2008. Measuring business angel investment activity in the United Kingdom: A review of potential data sources. Venture Capital: An International Journal of Entrepreneurial Finance, 10, 309–330. Landström, H., 1992. The relationship between private investors and small firms: An agency perspective. Entrepreneurship and Regional Development, 9, 199–223. Avdeitchikova, S., Landström, H., Månsson, N., 2010. Who can I rely on? Reliance on different sources of trust in business angel investing, in: Foundation, B.C.-K. (Eds.), Frontiers of Entrepreneurship Research. First Supervisor: Matthias Fink Second Supervisor: Andrea Moro Page 10 of 12 2014-06-19 Lord Ashcroft International Business School Project 9: Financial Contagion through network of banking exchanges Objectives: The research will explore financial data on direct financial exchanges between banks and other financial institutions focussing on the structural characteristics of these networks of relations and identify vulnerabilities. The research will assess both the centrality of the role of financial institutions, and the systemic risks associated with the reliance of the whole system on few players. The analysis can be focussing both on developing and developed countries, and on the interdependencies between these systems. Reference literatures: Acemoglu, D., Ozdaglar, A. & Tahbaz-Salehi, A. (2013) Systemic risk and stability in financial networks. National Bureau of Economic Research Working paper No. 18727, Cambridge,MA Bhaskar DasGupta and Lakshmi Kaligounder “On global stability of financial networks” Journal of Complex Networks February 27, 2014 Methodology: First step: data mining of existing interbank financial relations Second step: explorative analysis of existing relations and hierarchies Third step: inference on vulnerability in relation to network structure. First supervisor: Prof Emanuele Giovannetti Page 11 of 12 2014-06-19 Lord Ashcroft International Business School Project 10: Crowd-funding for investment in low income countries: the role of ICT Objectives: The research will focus on the potential role of crowd-funding to provide needed resources for investment into small business in developing countries. Given the disperse nature of small businesses and the obstacles to access to formal banking institutions ICT plays a crucial role in reaching remote entrepreneurs. However lack of connectivity may represent a large barrier to adoption of successful dispersed crowd-funding. The thesis will identify these obstacles through field work and analytical modelling, with the objective to highlight needs for intervention, both at donor or policy level, to create the conditions for crowd- finding to work. Reference literatures: Dresner, Steven. Crowdfunding: A Guide to Raising Capital on the Internet. John Wiley & Sons, 2014. Belleflamme, Paul, Thomas Lambert, and Armin Schwienbacher. "Crowdfunding: An industrial organization perspective." Prepared for the workshop Digital Business Models: Understanding Strategies’, held in Paris on June. 2010. Available at http://economix.fr/pdf/workshops/2010_dbm/Belleflamme_al.pdf Methodology: First step: data mining of existing crowd funding initiatives in developing countries Second step: Exploring ICT connectivity in the relevant areas Third step: Modelling and estimating the mutual interrelations between ICT and crowd funding in the selected countries. First supervisor: Prof Emanuele Giovannetti Page 12 of 12 2014-06-19
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