PV Technology Development Revolution by Evolution Gaëtan Masson Vice-Chairman JRC Round Table on EU PV Industry Brussels 27 01 2015 PV Market 40 GW in 2014 (pvmarketalliance.com) 100 Bn EUR Some numbers 5% Commercial PV technologies Efficiencies will continue to increase 25 silicon siliciu m 15 thin films 10 Thin-film CdTe 5 Thin-film aSi/µcSi Thin-film aSi Year 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 0 2000 Efficiency (%) 20 Wafer silicon - high end mono Wafer silicon mainstream mono Wafer silicon mainstream multi Thin-film CIGS And more to come Wafer/thin-film hybrids, etc. 25 silicon siliciu m 15 thin films 10 Thin-film CdTe 5 Thin-film aSi/µcSi Thin-film aSi Year 2020 2018 2016 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 0 2000 Efficiency (%) 20 Wafer silicon - high end mono Wafer silicon mainstream mono Wafer silicon mainstream multi Thin-film CIGS PV technologies Critical success factors (1)  Economies of scale have largely been reached for mature technologies  GW-scale factories are a reality already today  Key drivers for further cost reduction are now:  increase of efficiency & energy yield (incl. bifaciality)  low materials consumption / low-cost materials PV technologies Critical success factors (2)  Additional drivers / value-adding features:  long lifetime / high reliability  cost of capital !  overall sustainability  optional: added functionality/ special features, e.g. shade tolerance, partial transparency, aesthetics, flexibility of size/shape, anti-fouling, etc.  Total quality control and labeling (technical quality, environmental quality, CSR, etc.) may gain value in different markets PV technologies Market differentiation (1)  Trend of increasing module efficiencies will continue for decades to come  Toolbox of science and technology is well filled  Europe is very well-positioned in most segments of research and innovation  High module efficiency (at competitive cost) will be decisive for sustainable success in the main GW-scale markets: it is the levy for cost reduction at system and LCoE levels PV technologies Market differentiation (2)  Added functionality/ special features will allow the development of new markets (incl. BIPV)  The niches of yesterday may become the GWscale market segments of tomorrow The broader picture: € vs ¥ SOPHIA Symposium – 22 01 2015 – Chambéry, FR Thank you for your attention!