Lake County Forecast - Western Weather Group

Lake County Forecast
www.westernwx.com/lakeco
Will Farr, forecaster
This forecast was made possible by generous funding from the Lake County Winegrape Commission & American AgCredit
Thursday February 5, 2015 issued 7:30am
HIGHLIGHTS: Winds increasing with afternoon/evening showers possible (north). Winds becoming strong overnight through
Friday night. Heavy rain expected Fri. Showers Sat. More widespread rain Sun/Mon morning.
SHORT TERM SPECIFICS
TODAY
TONIGHT
FRIDAY
(valley)
(hills)
(valley)
(hills)
(valley)
(hills)
Weather
Max/Min
Dew Pts
POPs
Amounts
PM Rain
55-60
44-49
60%
Rain
45-53
44-52
100%
Heavy Rain
52-58
50-55
100%
Tr - .15 SE 5-15 G20
SE-S 10-25 G35
.25 - .75 SE 5-15 G20
SE-S 10-25 G35
1.5 - 3.0 SE 10-20 G30
2.0 - 4.0 SE 15-30 G45
Winds
Forecast Discussion: A line of moderate/heavy rain is pushing onshore along the North Coast early this morning. Models indicate
that this rain band will stall out several times before progressing and at times regressing back to the west slightly, making it difficult
to pinpoint the arrival time for precipitation for Lake County. With that being said, models suggest that this band will stall just
before entering the Sacramento Valley near a line from Redding to Fort Bragg this morning, then proceed southeastward this
afternoon producing prefrontal showers around Lake County late this afternoon or early evening. The heaviest precipitation is
anticipated Friday morning through Friday night, with rain tapering off to showers by Saturday morning. Computer models
indicate rainfall totals of around 2-3" with heavier amounts possible at higher elevations by Saturday morning. In addition to
heavy rainfall, winds are expected to continue increasing this afternoon and overnight. The strongest winds should accompany
the heavy band of precipitation Friday, where sustained winds could reach 30 mph, gusting to 45 mph (50 mph for some
locations at higher elevations).
Extended Forecast Discussion: Saturday morning rain is expected to taper off in coverage, though showers are still expected
thanks to a subtropical jet overhead continuing to feed moisture into northern California. Another trough of low pressure is
expected to push through the North State Sunday that appears capable of producing another round of moderate/heavy rainfall in
addition to increasing SE'erly winds again. Rain should taper off to showers on Monday before Lake County sees some clearing
Monday night through the middle of next week.
EXTENDED RANGE OUTLOOK
Sat 2/7
Sun 2/8
Mon 2/9
Weather
Showers
Rain
Rain
Max T
55-60
55-60
55-60
Min T
45-50
45-50
45-50
POP
70%
70%
70%
Amounts
1.0 - 2.0
.25 - .75
.25 - .50
Winds
SE 10-20 G35 SE 10-20 G30 SE 10-20 G30
Temperatures across Lake County yesterday…
Trends Thu 02/12 - Sat 02/14
Tue 2/10
Wed 2/11
Max Temps: Above normal
M Sunny
Sunny
Min Temps: Near to above normal
59-65
63-69
Precipitation: unlikely
35-48
29-49
10%
0%
Wx Pattern: Ridging over Intermountain West
Tr - .05
none
begins to break down and move E,
NW 5-15
NE 5-15
still dry through Sat (2/14).
Temperatures across the county this morning…
Avg High: 66°F Range: (63 - 69) Warmest: Upper Bohn North,
Avg Low: 44°F Range: (40 - 49) Coldest: Red Hills lower
Upper Lake
Scotts Valley
Red Hills
Today's Normals and Extremes(w/year) for selected Lake County stations
57/32
73 (2011), 25 (2003)
Middletown
57/33 76 (2011), 27 (2013)
57/30
74 (2011), 22 (2003)
Guenoc Valley
60/33 78 (2011), 24 (2003)
54/38
72 (2011), 32 (2001)
Lake County Campbell Scientific Weather Station Network
Daily Meteorological Summary
Wednesday, February 4, 2015
Temperature
Max
ºF
Upper Lake
Scotts Valley
Kelseyville
Kelseyville South
Bell Hill West
Red Hills
2000'
Red Hills 2
2135'
Red Hills 3
2500'
Red Hills Lower
Middletown
Guenoc Valley
Upper Bohn North
Upper Bohn South
Napa Valley Basin
Pope Valley
Morgan Valley**
Ukiah-Ruddick
Cow Mountain 3560'
64.6
63.1
67.2
66.9
66.4
66.2
64.5
65.4
67.9
66.6
68.3
69.3
70.6
69.4
68.7
61.2
67.2
54.5
time
occur
1453
1627
1530
1509
1532
1518
1504
1352
1429
1446
1516
1506
1539
1442
1517
1450
1328
** Morgan Valley sensors on high tower (50ft)
Min
ºF
34.9
32.8
33.4
34.9
36.4
43.4
41.6
48.0
36.5
35.3
41.4
39.3
36.6
38.0
44.7
42.7
37.7
time
occur
728
526
402
444
459
2320
2346
2358
632
308
517
508
245
113
2359
7
2057
Avg
ºF
46.3
46.6
48.3
48.9
48.5
51.4
49.5
55.2
---49.0
48.4
52.4
51.5
49.2
50.8
53.3
53.0
47.1
WIND
Avg
Avg
DewPt
ºF
RH
%
Avg
mph
44.0
42.9
39.5
42.0
42.4
43.0
41.4
35.9
----
93
89
76
81
83
77
77
53
----
1.0
41.9
46.4
45.6
48.3
47.1
45.3
33.7
----
81
83
84
97
89
69
48
----
1.6
Gust
mph
8.9
Precipitation
Gust
Dir
ENE
9.1 SSW
2.2
12.1
S
1.4
14.3
S
2.5
14.2
S
2.1
11.3
E
1.5
10.7
NE
4.8
14.8
NE
----
----
----
1.7
1.5
14.3 WSW
11.8 SSE
2.0
1.4
11.9
13.2
SE
ESE
1.3
14.7
SSE
1.2
13.5 SSW
5.3
17.3
SE
4.6
15.7
25.6
26.8
SE
E
24hr Season
In.
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
---0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
----
In.
21.49
19.86
18.78
16.62
20.24
19.43
18.65
18.16
---27.00
17.96
18.87
19.17
16.87
15.22
19.77
9.97
----
Chill Hours
hrs < 45ºF
ytd
11/1 on
13.9
11.4
9.8
9.8
9.9
1.2
9.3
0.0
---9.8
10.9
5.4
8.6
10.7
9.4
--------8.6
930
1015
906
906
931
550
751
531
---862
--500
588
847
853
----588
2/5
AM
ETo
in.
------0.05
0.05
0.04
0.06
0.08
------0.05
0.06
0.05
0.05
0.05
0.06
0.06
----
MinT
°F
42.2
45.9
42.1
45.3
47.7
43.6
41.7
45.2
40.4
49.5
41.8
45.0
41.6
41.8
47.2
43.8
53.0
38.9

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