Heidelberger Kolloquium Medizinische Biometrie, Informatik und

UniversitätsKlinikum Heidelberg
Heidelberger Kolloquium
Medizinische Biometrie, Informatik und Epidemiologie
Sehr geehrte Damen und Herren,
hiermit laden wir Sie herzlich ein zu dem Vortrag:
“Use of stable vs. projected population estimates for modelling long-term vaccine effects –
the example of varicella-zoster virus“
von
Dr. André Karch,
Helmholtz-Zentrum für Infektionsforschung, Braunschweig
am Montag, 16.01.2017, 16.15 Uhr
im Kommunikationszentrum des DKFZ, Hörsaal K1, Im Neuenheimer Feld 280, 69120 Heidelberg
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Epidemiological studies suggest that reduced exposure to varicella might lead to an increased
risk for herpes zoster (HZ). Reduction of exposure to varicella is a consequence of varicella
vaccination but also of demographic changes. We analyzed how the combination of vaccination
programs and demographic dynamics may affect the epidemiology of varicella and HZ in
Germany over the next 50 years.
We used a dynamic compartmental model to assess the impact of different varicella and HZ
vaccination strategies on varicella and HZ epidemiology and applied it to three different
demographic scenarios. One scenario used a standard stable population model which does not
account for population changes over time, another one used the official projected population for
Germany from DESTATIS and accounted for long-term population trends, while the third scenario
accounted as well for short-term population trends like the increased immigration to Germany
observed in 2015/2016. We showed that stable population models are appropriate for assessing
vaccination impact, while models incorporating realistic population structures allow a direct
comparison to surveillance data and can thus provide additional input for immunization
decision-making and resource planning.
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Gezeichnet: Dickhaus, Gabrysch, Kieser, Knaup, Kopp-Schneider, Wellek
Organisation: Birgit Schleweis
Institut für Medizinische Biometrie und Informatik, Im Neuenheimer Feld 130.3, 69120 Heidelberg Tel. 06221/56-4142. Möchten Sie
die Ankündigung der Vorträge per E-Mail erhalten, senden Sie bitte eine Nachricht an: [email protected]

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