Issued in June 2016 For Professional Investors and Advisers Only Monthly Newsletter Schroder ISF* Global Conservative Convertible Bond Covering May 2016 Performance %** Schroder ISF Global Conservative Convertible Bond May 2016 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year USD I class A class BM 0.22% 0.10% 0.34% 2.36% 1.99% 2.86% -1.40% -2.11% -1.66% 0.00% -1.47% -2.40% EUR I class A class BM 0.14% 0.01% 0.25% 2.06% 1.69% 2.59% -1.86% -2.58% -2.06% -0.47% -1.92% -2.90% CHF I class A class BM 0.10% -0.03% 0.21% 1.98% 1.60% 2.48% -2.07% -2.79% -2.31% -1.06% -2.49% -3.48% Benchmark: Thomson Reuters Global Focus Investment Grade hedged Convertible Bond Index (EUR/CHF) Source: Bloomberg/Schroders as at 31/05/2016. Market overview Global stock markets carried their recent positive momentum into May, seeming at last to truly leave the bad start to the year behind. US markets approached last year’s highs and European markets showed a similarly strong upward trend. Both Japan and Asia ex Japan, meanwhile, lagged behind. Analysts have grown accustomed to scrutinising central bank activity and the oil price to find explanations for market sentiment. In May, it appeared that a summer US rate increase grew more likely. This fact would have scared markets only a few months ago, but markets in May were relatively sanguine. The same holds true for the further devaluation of the Chinese Yuan. The oil price has also climbed a full 88% from its low. Again, while this may have been construed as inflationary and an obstacle to global growth, it was greeted as welcome news. The MSCI World Index ended the month of May with a gain of 0.7% In the US, the S&P, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq were all up, gaining 1.8%, 0.5% and 3.8% respectively. European bourses also closed the month in positive territory. Germany’s Dax rose by 2.2%, France’s CAC by 3.5%, the UK’s FTSE100 by 0.3% and Spain’s IBEX by 0.6%. Italy’s MIB was the odd one out with a loss of -1.0%. The picture in Asia was a bit more mixed. Japan, China, and Taiwan showed positive performance with index advances of 3.4%, 0.6% and 1.9% respectively while markets in Hong Kong (-0.5%) and Singapore (-1.0%) were both down. Credit spreads tightened further - in line with positive equity markets – and have reached yearto-date lows. Conservative convertible bonds participated only slightly from positive stock markets. The Thomson Reuters Global Focus Investment Grade convertible index posted a gain of 0.34% (in US dollar terms). Schroder ISF Global Convertible Bond slightly underperformed its benchmark. Portfolio overview We remained true to our conservative fund set-up also in May and kept equity exposure slightly below the benchmark. The absolute exposure values only moved marginally to 29.6% equity exposure at the end of May. We remain defensive on higher-delta names especially from the IT sector as well as consumer discretionary. On a regional level we are overweight Japan. Once more, the primary market in May was dominated by European names. Overall, $4.2 billion of new convertible bonds came to the market bringing the annual figure up to $23.4 billion. Over the same first five months of last year, we saw twice that volume. This month we participated in German industrial MTU as well as Nexity from France. Implied volatility, as a typical measure of the price for the conversion right, has remained at a very low 28%. We consider this as a very attractive level to build up convex equity exposure. The fund’s running yield stands at 0.7%. The fund’s bondfloor remains at a high 90% and the overall credit rating in the fund remains A. Outlook and strategy What a difference a few months in global markets makes. From panic-ridden February lows we have * Schroder International Selection Fund is referred to as Schroder ISF throughout this document ** Euro hedged, CHF hedged and USD A and I share classes shown bid to bid as at 31 May 2016, Source: Bloomberg. Portfolio data sourced from Schroders (unaudited). All data as at 31 May 2016 excludes derivative positions. Issued in June 2016 moved back to near all-time highs at the end of May. As conservative investors, we have pointed out in recent newsletters that the speed of the recovery rally looked unsustainable. However, we also note that positive investor sentiment remains more than just euphoric hype. There always seems some room left for further central bank activity and quantitative easing. We continue to believe that convertible bonds are a compelling vehicle in this type of market. The exposure to equity markets offers the potential for further upside, but good protection is also offered by the bond element to mitigate future volatility. We maintain our view that negative interest rates shore up the portfolio channel, but they also move investors into risky assets that they are unable to hold when markets turn south. This leads to heightened volatility and gives even more reason to build some protection into asset allocation. There is evidence to suggest that stock rallies can last longer after risk and sentiment indices - such as the Credit Suisse Panic index - have hit lows. The oil price is moving in the right direction, perhaps a bit too sharply, and is likely to pause for For Professional Investors and Advisers Only breath from here. Inflation stayed subdued and central banks are working in tandem to ensure high levels of liquidity while keeping exchange rates more stable. All in all, we see the developments as good news for investors. As always though, there are valid reasons to monitor risk levels. The International Monetary Fund has trimmed growth expectations once more, the vote on Brexit is fixed for 23 June, Spanish elections are scheduled for just three days later, the Federal Reserve is still expected to raise rates at the June meeting, and China’s economy remains between a rock and a hard place. We somewhat optimistically believe that the glass is more half-full than half-empty. As always, this advice is much easier to give to investors in convertible bonds, with the in-built safety net of a bond floor. Convertible participation in the equity market via a long term option, paired with strong credit selection, continues to provide investors in convertible bonds a good mix of equity exposure and safety. Issued in June 2016 For Professional Investors and Advisers Only Fund Data Fund data as at 31 May 2016*** Team Portfolio managers Dr. Peter Reinmuth Stefan Krause Size & Holdings Fund size in base currency (USD) 143.6m Number of issues 59 Regional Allocation Portfolio Index Europe 64.85% 61.80% Asia 3.92% 3.43% Japan 6.63% 4.56% Americas 14.03% 20.00% Others 6.75% 10.20% Cash 3.82% 0.00% Sector Allocation Portfolio Index Consumer Disc. 15.03% 16.19% Consumer Staples 2.05% 1.69% Energy 10.41% 7.99% Financials 17.68% 18.60% Health Care 2.61% 3.36% Industrials 16.66% 16.40% Information Technology 6.33% 12.68% Materials 3.33% 1.78% Others 0.00% 0.00% Telecoms 11.66% 10.36% Utilities 10.43% 10.95% Cash 3.82% 0.00% Portfolio Statistics**** Yield 0.65% Effective Duration 2.56 years Equity Sensitivity 29.97% Delta Bond Floor Average Rating Credit Spread *** 0.38 90.69% A 87bps Source: Schroders. Please note that the sector and country split follows the underlying equity rather than the issuer. **** Average credit quality is based on official ratings where available and implied ratings. Yield is estimated on a running yield basis. Issued in June 2016 For Professional Investors and Advisers Only Credit Rating AAA Equity Sensitivity 0.43% 0.71% 27.04% 5.52% 4.83% AA 43.33% 39.07% A 49.71% 2040% 44.45% 49.49% 55.39% BBB BB 1.22% 0.00% B 0.00% 0.00% CCC and below 28.15% 0-20% 14.64% 4060% >60% 0.00% 0.00% 19.88% 7.51% 8.64% Schroder ISF Global Conservative Convertible Bond Schroder ISF Global Conservative Convertible Bond Thomson Reuters Global Focus IG Convertible Bond USD hedged Thomson Reuters Global Focus IG Convertible Bond USD hedged Source: Schroders as at 31/05/2016. Top Ten Issues Weight Sector Koninklijke KPN NV / America Movil 2020 5.46% Telecommunication Services Total 2022 4.60% Energy Steinhoff 2022 4.39% Consumer Discretionary Deutsche Post 2019 4.29% Industrials Intel 2035 4.02% Information Technology Priceline Group 2021 3.57% Consumer Discretionary Telefonica 2021 3.17% Telecommunication Services Siemens 2019 3.14% Industrials Vodafone 2020 3.02% Telecommunication Services Siemens 2017 2.97% Industrials Source: Schroders as at 31/05/2016. Important Information This document does not constitute an offer to anyone, or a solicitation by anyone, to subscribe for shares of Schroder International Selection Fund (the “Company”). Nothing in this document should be construed as advice and is therefore not a recommendation to buy or sell shares. Subscriptions for shares of the Company can only be made on the basis of its latest Key Investor Information Document and prospectus, together with the latest audited annual report (and subsequent unaudited semi-annual report, if published), copies of which can be obtained, free of charge, from Schroder Investment Management (Luxembourg) S.A. An investment in the Company entails risks, which are fully described in the prospectus. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, prices of shares and the income from them may fall as well as rise and investors may not get the amount originally invested. Schroders has expressed its own views and opinions in this document and these may change. This document is issued by Schroder Investment Management Ltd., 31, Gresham Street, EC2V 7QA, who is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. For your security, communications may be taped or monitored. Risk Considerations The capital is not guaranteed. The capital is not guaranteed. Non-investment grade securities will generally pay higher yields than more highly rated securities but will be subject to greater market, credit and default risk. A security issuer may not be able to meet its obligations to make timely payments of interest and principal. This will affect the credit rating of those securities. Investments denominated in a currency other than that of the share-class may not be hedged. The market movements between those currencies will impact the share-class. Investment in bonds and other debt instruments including related derivatives is subject to interest rate risk. The value of the fund may go down if interest rate rise and vice versa. It may be difficult to sell quickly positions of one or more companies to meet redemption requests upon demand in extreme market conditions.
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