Prof. Dr. Max Mustermann | Musterfakultät Land use based flood hazard analysis for Mekong delta Duong Vu, Franz Nestmann Institute for Water and River Basin Management (IWG) | Prof. Dr.-Ing. Franz Nestmann 1 KIT – University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and National Research Center of the Helmholtz Association Institut für Wasser und Gewässerentwicklung, Berreich Wasserwirtschaft und Kulturtechnik www.kit.edu Contents of presentation 1. Introduction about Mekong delta 2. Flooding situation 3. The change of agricultural development in historical view 4. Consequences of intensive rice cropping 5. Discussion 2 03.06.2015 KIT – University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association Institut für Wasser und Gewässerentwicklung, Berreich Wasserwirtschaft und Kulturtechnik Prof. Dr. Max Mustermann | Musterfakultät 1. Introduction MEKONG RIVER • Run through: 6 countries • Length: 4,200 km • Catchment area: 795,000km2 • One of the longest rivers in the world MEKONG RIVER DELTA • 13 provinces • land area of 39,712 km2 • Low-lying coastal region 3 03.06.2015 Institut für Wasser und Gewässerentwicklung, Berreich Wasserwirtschaft und Kulturtechnik Flooding situation in Mekong delta An Giang Flood & Inundation From July to end of November Depth: 0.5 - 4.0 m Recent high flood years: 1996, 2000, 2001, 2002, 2011 2000 2006 Can Tho city 2011 4 03.06.2015 KIT – University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association Tan Chau gauge. Institut für Wasser und Gewässerentwicklung, Berreich Wasserwirtschaft und Kulturtechnik Prof. Dr. Max Mustermann | Musterfakultät Flooding in Mekong delta - Positive Alluvial and nutritious sediments supply Waste insects and pollution Provide plenty fishes and aquatic products. Supplementary fresh and ground water sources Pushing salinity intrusion 5 03.06.2015 Institut für Wasser und Gewässerentwicklung, Berreich Wasserwirtschaft und Kulturtechnik Overview of agricultural development in MD since 1954 From 1954 - 1975, Vietnam was divided into 02 parts (North Vietnam vs South Vietnam). VIETNAM WAR ! Since 1975, the South Vietnam has been under control by communist system from North Vietnam 1975 – 1985: communist rules for the south of Vietnam, commercial trading activities were forbidden, checking point, “co-operated group”. As a result, in 1978, the economy crisis in South Vietnam due to war damages and policies mistakes, hunger disaster, thousands people didn’t have rice to eat. In 1986, the prohibited trading were removed and agriculture development were taken into account. In 1990, the Soviet and socialist system in the world collapsed. Vietnam still kept the system following China, North Korea and Cuba. In this decade, irrigation system were invested highly for rice and salinity control in MD. Since 2000, an intensive rice cropping program socalled “triple rice cropping” has been carried out. 6 03.06.2015 Land use based flood hazards analysis for the Mekong delta KIT – University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association Hanoi Saigon Institut für Wasser und Gewässerentwicklung, Berreich Wasserwirtschaft und Kulturtechnik Prof. Dr. Max Mustermann | Musterfakultät Since 2000 2001 2000 2006 2005 03.06.2015 2007 2011 2010 7 2002 2012 Land use based flood hazards analysis for the Mekong delta 2003 2004 2009 2008 2013 2014 Institut für Wasser und Gewässerentwicklung, Berreich Wasserwirtschaft und Kulturtechnik Description Dyke systems for double and triple rice cropping in upstream provinces Number of embankment Full-dyke Semi-dyke 1.336 Total Semi dyke in Dong Thap: before August 2011 Close dyke in Angiang, 2011 1.721 Length (km) Full-dyke Semi-dyke 6.696 3.057 7.538 14.234 Area (ha) Full-dyke Semi-dyke 1.162.073 875.694 2.037.762 Semi dyke in Dong Thap: after August 2011 Close dyke in Angiang, 2013 Dyke system in upstream provinces (SIWRR, 2011) 8 KIT – University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association Institut für Wasser und Gewässerentwicklung, Berreich Wasserwirtschaft und Kulturtechnik Prof. Dr. Max Mustermann | Musterfakultät Impacts of upstream dykes to Mekong flood regimes Take space for flood water at the deep flooding zones. Flood extend max in recent years by satellite MODIS (Duong VU et al., 2014) 9 03.06.2015 Land use based flood hazards analysis for the Mekong delta Institut für Wasser und Gewässerentwicklung, Berreich Wasserwirtschaft und Kulturtechnik Impact of dyke system to hydraulic regimes Mekong river network is simulated by MIKE11model 2255 branches 10 03.06.2015 Land use based flood hazards analysis for the Mekong delta KIT – University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association Institut für Wasser und Gewässerentwicklung, Berreich Wasserwirtschaft und Kulturtechnik Prof. Dr. Max Mustermann | Musterfakultät Impacts of dyke system to flood regime in Mekong delta Studied positions on the main river 11 Institut für Wasser und Gewässerentwicklung, Berreich Wasserwirtschaft und Kulturtechnik Impacts of dyke system to flood regime in Mekong delta Q (m3/s) Water level (cm) Actual status dykes Flood 2000 (KB1) Q2000 H2000 2000 2000on2011 (KB3) Q2000 H2000 2011 Scenarios Compare KB1 vs KB3 (Duong VU et al., 2014) Dyke system made water on main rivers increase 12 KIT – University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association Institut für Wasser und Gewässerentwicklung, Berreich Wasserwirtschaft und Kulturtechnik Prof. Dr. Max Mustermann | Musterfakultät Impacts of dyke system to flood regime in Mekong delta Q (m3/s) Water level (cm) Actual status dykes Flood 2000 (KB1) Q2000 H2000 2000 2000on2011 (KB3) Q2000 H2000 2011 Scenarios Compare KB1 vs KB3 (Duong VU et al., 2014) Dyke system made water on main rivers increase 13 Institut für Wasser und Gewässerentwicklung, Berreich Wasserwirtschaft und Kulturtechnik Effect of triple rice cropping to local farmer - Farmer have to work harder, less manpower. - Low price of rice => low income - Expensive inputs: seeds, fertilizer, pesticide, etc - Total yields of triple rice cropping is the same or lower than double rice cropping in the past. - Soil pollutions and poor quality due to less alluvial. - Less fishes and aquatic products. - Several arguments between scientists, farmers: “Let the flood enter the rice-field as before ???” 14 03.06.2015 A Review on Mekong delta problems and adaption measures KIT – University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association Institut für Wasser und Gewässerentwicklung, Berreich Wasserwirtschaft und Kulturtechnik Prof. Dr. Max Mustermann | Musterfakultät Conclusion and recommendation The intensive of land use for triple rice cropping has impacted to flooding regimes in Mekong delta (change of space and water level) The orientation of land use development (triple rice cropping) should be based on the beneficiary of farmers (bottom-up). The economic value of triple rice cropping in Mekong delta should be studied and assessed more specifically. The qualified human factor plays a very important role for the sustainable development of Mekong delta, especially are the leaders and decision makers who issue policies and development strategies for Mekong delta as well as Vietnam. 15 03.06.2015 Institut für Wasser und Gewässerentwicklung, Berreich Wasserwirtschaft und Kulturtechnik THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION ! 16 03.06.2015 KIT – University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg and National Laboratory of the Helmholtz Association Institut für Wasser und Gewässerentwicklung, Berreich Wasserwirtschaft und Kulturtechnik
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