Table 1.6 - Banco de España

1.6 HOUSING MARKET INDICATORS
a) Most significant variables
6-March-2015 10:52:02
Annual data
2012
2013
Quarterly data
2014
13 Q4
14 Q1
14 Q2
Monthly data
14 Q3
14 Q4
Nov 14
Dec 14
Jan 15
Feb 15
Prices and costs (a)
Housing Price Index (INE) (annual rate)
National total
. . . . . . .
New housing (first transfer) . . . . . . . . .
Second-hand housing . . . . . . . . . . .
-13.8
-12.3
-14.9
-10.5
-10.4
-10.8
...
...
...
-7.8
-8.0
-7.7
-1.6
-1.1
-1.7
0.8
1.9
0.2
0.3
0.8
0.1
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
Appraisals (Ministerio de Fomento)
Average price per m2 for open-market housing
National total (annual rate) . . . . . . . . . .
National total (EUR/m2) . . . . . . . . . . .
-8.7
1 588
-5.8
1 495
-2.4
1 459
-4.2
1 467
-3.8
1 459
-2.9
1 459
-2.6
1 456
-0.3
1 463
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
Based on age (annual rate)
New housing (<=2 years) . . . . . . . . . .
Second-hand housing (>2 years) . . . . . . .
-7.5
-8.9
-4.2
-6.4
-2.5
-2.5
-3.2
-4.7
-3.0
-4.2
-2.8
-2.9
-2.9
-2.6
-1.2
-0.2
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
Based on region (annual rate)
Madrid and Barcelona provinces . . . . . . .
East coast, south coast and island provinces .
Other mainland provinces, Ceuta and Melilla .
-10.5
-9.5
-8.5
-5.7
-6.6
-4.1
-0.9
-2.4
-4.1
-2.5
-4.1
-2.9
-2.0
-4.2
-5.6
-1.2
-3.0
-4.9
-1.2
-2.7
-3.4
0.6
0.3
-2.3
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
Asking prices (annual rate)
New housing (b) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Second-hand housing . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-6.2
-8.7
-7.9
-9.9
-3.5
-5.8
-7.8
-9.0
...
-7.6
-4.8
-5.7
...
-5.2
-2.2
-4.5
...
-4.3
...
-4.2
...
-4.5
...
...
Rentals CPI . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.5
-0.2
-0.7
-0.5
-0.6
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.7
-0.6
...
Index of building costs . . . . . . . . . . . . .
0.4
-0.6
0.0
0.1
-0.4
0.1
0.3
-0.0
-
-0.2
...
...
Housing investment deflator (QSNA) . . . . . . .
-6.4
-7.3
-1.3
-7.1
-3.4
-0.4
-0.9
0.0
...
...
...
...
Housing approvals in last twelve months (c)
National total (annual rate) . . . . . . . . . . .
National total (thousands) . . . . . . . . . . .
-43.6
44
-22.4
34
1.7
35
-22.4
34
-18.3
33
-8.4
34
2.4
36
1.7
35
5.6
36
1.7
35
...
...
...
...
Housing starts in last twelve months (c)
National total (annual rate) . . . . . . . . . . .
National total (thousands) . . . . . . . . . . .
-40.0
52
-31.0
36
...
...
-31.0
36
-18.0
36
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
Based on type of housing (thousands)
Unsubsidised . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Subsidised . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Subsidised as % of total . . . . . . . . . . .
35
17
33.2
29
6
18.2
...
...
...
29
6
18.2
30
6
16.6
...
5
...
...
6
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
Based on region (annual rate)
Madrid and Barcelona provinces . . . . . . .
East coast, south coast and island provinces . .
Other mainland provinces, Ceuta and Melilla . .
-34.5
-40.9
-41.7
-28.6
-18.5
-37.3
...
...
...
-28.6
-18.5
-37.3
0.1
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
Before a notary public (Ministerio de Fomento)
National total (annual rate) . . . . . . . . . .
National total (thousands) . . . . . . . . . .
4.2
364
-17.3
301
...
...
-30.4
94
48.7
82
12.6
92
13.5
80
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
Based on age (annual rate)
New housing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Second-hand housing . . . . . . . . . . .
-9.0
11.8
-51.4
-1.3
...
...
-62.5
-11.8
40.5
50.4
0.1
15.4
-13.7
20.2
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
Based on region (annual rate)
Madrid and Barcelona provinces . . . . . . .
East coast, south coast and island provinces .
Other mainland provinces . . . . . . . . . .
4.0
8.0
0.2
-10.9
-9.8
-29.6
...
...
...
-19.5
-24.1
-42.8
74.3
37.5
48.2
24.5
6.3
14.1
23.1
8.2
15.1
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
Registered
National total (annual rate) . . . . . . . . . .
National total (thousands) . . . . . . . . . .
-11.5
319
-1.9
313
2.1
319
-10.0
67
-14.6
83
6.4
79
7.8
79
15.3
78
14.0
25
15.7
26
9.6
33
...
...
Based on age (annual rate)
New housing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Second-hand housing . . . . . . . . . . .
-10.6
-12.3
-7.8
3.8
-17.1
18.5
-15.2
-5.1
-24.0
-5.1
-2.1
12.9
-14.7
25.6
-24.2
47.9
-20.6
41.6
-33.1
61.1
-37.1
50.8
...
...
Housing investment (annual rate)(QSNA)(a) . . . .
-9.0
-7.6
-1.8
-8.2
-6.6
-2.0
-0.2
2.1
...
...
...
...
Activity
Supply
Demand
Number of house purchase transactions
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
BANCO DE ESPAÑA / SUMMARY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
1.6 HOUSING MARKET INDICATORS
a) Most significant variables (continued)
6-March-2015 10:52:05
Annual data
2012
2013
Quarterly data
2014
13 Q4
14 Q1
14 Q2
Monthly data
14 Q3
14 Q4
Nov 14
Dec 14
Jan 15
Feb 15
Demographic variables (c)
Population >=25 years of age (EPA. 2005 methodology)
Annual change (thousands) . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-1
-139
30
-139
-154
-72
-11
30
...
...
...
...
Households (EPA. 2005 methodology)
Number (millions) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Annual change (thousands) . . . . . . . . . . . .
18.15
158
18.25
91
18.36
117
18.25
91
18.27
86
18.33
127
18.36
135
18.36
117
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
1.45
1.45
...
1.45
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
.
.
.
.
23.2
58.3
15.7
3.4
22.2
57.5
14.9
3.2
22.6
59.5
13.4
3.1
22.3
57.4
13.6
3.2
22.5
58.1
12.5
3.3
22.4
59.1
13.5
3.2
22.9
59.7
13.5
3.1
22.8
60.9
14.1
2.8
...
...
...
2.9
...
...
...
2.6
...
...
...
2.7
...
...
...
...
Labour market
Employment (EPA. 2005 methodology)
(annual change) (thousands) (c) . . . . . . . . . .
Rate of youth unemployment (20-29 years of age)
(2005 methodology)(a) . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-814
-204
434
-204
-80
192
274
434
...
...
...
...
37.9
40.1
37.7
39.2
40.1
37.3
36.5
36.8
...
...
...
...
6.6
36.6
29.5
6.2
35.7
35.7
...
...
...
6.2
35.7
35.7
6.2
35.8
35.8
6.3
36.2
36.2
6.3
35.0
35.0
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
Net household financial wealth (c)
Annual rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
As % of GDP . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.8
78.0
22.3
95.9
...
...
22.3
95.9
27.1
101.1
32.7
108.1
22.5
107.6
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
Household real-estate wealth (c)
Annual rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Ratio to GDP (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-12.6
429.3
-7.9
397.8
...
...
-7.9
397.8
-1.7
396.3
0.7
402.4
0.1
401.6
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
Total household wealth (c)
Ratio to GDP (%) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
507.3
493.7
...
493.7
497.4
510.5
509.2
...
...
...
...
...
Total credit to the non-financial private sector
Annual rate (a) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-3.3
-5.9
-5.0
-5.7
-5.9
-5.2
-4.5
-4.3
-4.4
-3.6
...
...
Total mortgage credit
Annual rate (a) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Outstanding balance as % of GDP (c) . . . . . . . .
-8.7
85.7
-13.7
74.6
-9.1
...
-13.4
74.6
-10.9
72.7
-9.6
71.6
-8.7
70.0
-7.3
...
-7.5
...
-6.6
...
...
...
...
...
Credit to households for house purchase
Annual rate (a) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Outstanding balance as % of GDP (c) . . . . . . . .
-2.8
61.0
-4.2
58.5
-4.2
...
-4.4
58.5
-4.4
57.7
-4.2
57.2
-4.0
56.5
-3.9
...
-4.1
...
-3.9
...
...
...
...
...
Number of new mortgage loans (annual rate)
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
For house purchase . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
-16.8
-12.4
-27.1
-28.1
...
...
-29.5
-31.8
...
...
-26.3
-3.9
-11.0
10.2
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
Financing under housing schemes
Annual rate (a) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
As % of credit for house purchase (c) . . . . . . . .
-1.8
5.4
-9.8
5.1
...
...
-10.1
5.1
-9.9
5.0
-9.5
4.8
-10.7
4.8
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
Doubtful loans to households for house purchase
and renovation. Doubtful loans ratio (a) . . . . . . . .
3.48
5.26
...
5.99
6.32
6.11
6.01
...
...
...
...
...
Number of dwellings per household
. . . . . . . . .
Affordability
Borrowing conditions (a)
Average new mortgage term (years) .
Loan/value ratio (%)(LTV)(New loans) .
Percentage of new loans with LTV>80%
Interest rate on unsubsidised loans (%)
.
.
.
.
.
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Measures of affordability
House price/gross disposable household income (years)
Annual theoretical affordability without deductions (%) (e)
Annual theoretical affordability with deductions (%) (e)
Wealth
Credit (including securitisation)
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
BANCO DE ESPAÑA / SUMMARY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
1.6 HOUSING MARKET INDICATORS
a) Most significant variables (continued)
6-March-2015 10:52:07
Annual data
2012
2013
Quarterly data
2014
13 Q4
14 Q1
14 Q2
Monthly data
14 Q3
14 Q4
Nov 14
Dec 14
Jan 15
Feb 15
Return on alternative investment
Cumulative return over last 12 months (c)
Housing (rental plus change in prices) . .
Gross return on rental . . . . . . . . .
10 year government bonds (f) . . . . .
Deposits from households and NPISH. (g)
Stock market (IBEX-35) . . . . . . . .
-9.0
3.8
5.3
2.7
-4.7
-3.5
4.3
4.1
1.6
21.4
...
...
1.6
0.7
3.7
-3.5
4.3
4.1
1.6
21.4
3.0
4.6
3.2
1.3
30.6
5.4
4.6
2.7
1.1
40.7
4.9
4.6
2.2
1.0
17.8
...
...
1.6
0.7
3.7
...
...
1.9
0.7
9.5
...
...
1.6
0.7
3.7
...
...
1.5
...
4.9
...
...
1.3
...
10.5
-15.8
0.9
-2.7
-5.9
-9.0
-4.1
-1.1
-2.1
-1.5
-12.0
1.6
-3.1
-6.9
-9.0
-3.3
1.0
2.6
0.7
...
2.3
...
...
0.6
...
8.4
...
...
-8.0
1.1
-2.6
-6.0
-5.5
-2.4
3.3
3.8
-0.2
-1.6
1.4
-2.7
-5.3
-1.9
-1.3
6.1
3.8
...
0.6
1.6
-2.1
-5.3
0.9
-0.5
8.3
3.9
...
0.6
2.3
-1.7
-3.8
1.5
0.1
10.1
3.8
...
...
3.9
...
...
2.0
...
9.0
...
...
...
...
...
...
2.1
...
8.9
...
...
...
...
...
...
2.1
...
9.2
...
...
...
...
...
...
2.8
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
International comparison
Real prices indices (annual rates) (a)
Spain . . . . .
Germany . . .
France . . . .
Italy . . . . .
Netherlands . .
Euro area . . .
United Kingdom
United States .
Japan . . . . .
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Sources: INE, Ministerio de Fomento, Colegio de Registradores, Sociedad de Tasación, Fotocasa, Expocasa, Sociedad de Bolsas S.A., BIS, OECD, ECB and Banco de
España.(See accompanying methodological note).
(a) Period average.
(b) Half-yearly data.
(c) End of period.
(d) Includes residential and non-residential property.
(e) The quarterly data are annual moving averages.
(f) Secondary market.
(g) Deposits at credit institutions over 1 and up to 2 years. Interest rates (NDER) on new business . NEDR: narrowly defined effective rate, which is the same as the APRC without
including commissions.
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
BANCO DE ESPAÑA / SUMMARY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
1.6 HOUSING MARKET INDICATORS
b) Memorandum item
6-March-2015 10:52:14
1970
1981
1991
2001
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
14 726 134
17 206 363
20 946 554
24 937 572
25 130 992
25 208 623
25 276 303
25 256 840
79.8
7.5
12.7
70.8
12.9
16.3
68.2
17.0
14.8
67.7
17.4
14.8
...
...
...
...
...
...
71.7
14.6
13.7
...
...
...
...
...
...
63.4
30.1
6.5
73.1
20.8
6.1
78.3
15.2
6.5
82.2
11.4
6.5
...
...
...
...
...
...
78.9
13.5
7.6
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
79.3
13.5
7.2
84.5
9.6
5.9
79.3
14.6
6.1
79.4
14.5
6.1
79.6
14.9
5.5
79.2
14.5
6.3
77.7
15.4
6.9
Housing stock
Number of dwellings (Censuses)(a) . . . . . . . 10 658 882
Percentage of dwellings (Censuses)
Primary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Secondary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Unoccupied and other . . . . . . . . . . . .
Percentage of primary dwellings (Censuses)
Owner-occupied . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Rented . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Free let and other . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Percentage of primary dwellings (b)
Owner-occupied . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Rented . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Free let and other . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
HOUSING STOCK
TYPE OF DWELLING
80
HOUSING STOCK
PRIMARY DWELLINGS BY TYPE OF TENURE
PRIMARY
SECONDARY
UNOCCUPIED AND OTHER
%
%
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
90 %
% 90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
30
20
20
10
0
OWNER-OCCUPIED
RENTED
FREE LET AND OTHER
10
1970
1981
1991
2001
2011
0
0
1970
1981
1991
2001
2011
0
Source: INE and Banco de España.
(a) Years between censuses: Banco de España estimates.
(b) To 2004, Household Budget Continuous Survey (HBCS); from 2005 to 2011, Living Conditions Survey (LCS).
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
BANCO DE ESPAÑA / SUMMARY ECONOMIC INDICATORS
1.6 HOUSING MARKET INDICATORS
6-MARCH-2015 10:52:18
AVERAGE HOUSE PRICE PER M2
(annual rates)
20
%
PRICES AND COSTS
(annual rates)
General Index, INE
Open-market housing prices, M. Fomento
Supply second-hand housing
%
%
20
10
10
0
0
-10
-20
-10
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Source:INE, M. Fomento, Fotocasa y Expocasa.
-20
15
40
10
10
20
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
30
600
25
500
20
400
15
300
10
200
100
5
0
0
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Sources: Ministerio de Fomento and Banco de España.
NEW HOUSE PURCHASES
(Cumulative figure for the last twelve months)
-40
-40
-60
-15
-20
-20
-80
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Sources: M. Fomento and INE.
-80
HOUSE PURCHASES
(Cumulative figure for the last twelve months)
Housing starts
Employment (R-H scale)
Households
thousands
thousands
thousands
1200
900
1000
800
800
700
600
600
400
500
200
400
0
300
-200
200
-400
100
-600
0
-800
-100
-1000
-200
-1200
-300
-1400
-400
-1600
-500
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Sources: Ministerio de Fomento and INE.
%
200
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
12
13
14
15
Sources: Ministerio de Fomento, Colegio de Registradores and INE.
Before a notary public (M.Fomento)
Association of Registrars
thousands
600
600
500
500
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
0
10
11
12
13
14
15
Sources: Ministerio de Fomento , Colegio de Registradores and INE.
ANNUAL RETURNS
80
20
10
5
4
60
15
5
3
40
10
0
2
20
5
-5
1
0
0
-20
-5
-40
-10
0
-10
-15
-1
-2
-20
-3
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
250
7
500
5
%
Net household financial wealth (% GDP) (R-H scale)
Household real-estate wealth (% GDP)(Base year 2001)
Total household wealth (% GDP)
8
6
400
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Source: Banco de España.
4
3
200
0
%
7
16
6
14
5
12
% 30
20
20
10
10
0
0
50
100
0
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Source: Banco de España.
0
-10
-20
-10
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
130
2005=100
120
Spain
Italy
France
Netherlands
Germany
-20
Source: Banco de España.
REAL PRICE INDEX
REAL PRICE INDEX
18
For house purchase
Mortgage credit
Total non-financial corporations, households and NPISHs
100
CREDIT FOR HOUSE PURCHASE
Interest rate
Doubtful credit ratio (R-H scale) (b)
30 %
150
300
1
-15
200
2
10
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Sources: Sociedad de Bolsas,S.A. and Banco de España.
25
CREDIT (INCLUDING SECURITISATION)
600
40
20
-60
Sources: INE and Banco de España.
700
50
%
100
6
%
300
9
30
%
7
HOUSEHOLD WEALTH
10
60
%
Housing
10 year government bonds (secondary market)
1 to 2 year deposits from households and NPISH
Stock market (IBEX 35)(L-H scale)
15
House price/gross disposable household income(R-H scale)
Annual theoretical affordability without deductions
years
Annual theoretical affordability with deductions
70
House prices (annual rate)(INE)
CPI for rentals (annual rate)
Gross return on rental (R-H scale)
20
AFFORDABILITY
%
0
-20
CPI FOR RENTALS AND HOUSE PRICES
150
0
20
0
-15
Before a notary public (M.Fomento)
Association of Registrars
%
40
thousands
200
80
%
-20
-60
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Sources:INE and M. Fomento.
Housing starts
Housing investment
%
HOUSING STARTS AND CHANGE IN EMPLOYMENT
AND HOUSEHOLDS
Unsubsidised housing starts
Subsidised housing starts
%
Subsidised financing as % of credit for house purchase (R-H scale)
700
thousands
%
15
SUBSIDISED HOUSING
thousands
ACTIVITY
(annual rates)
House prices (INE)
Housing investment deflator
Building costs (a)
Euro area
United Kingdom
United States
130 130.00
2005=100
2005=100
120 121.25
130.00
2005=100
121.25
110
110
112.50
112.50
103.75
103.75
10
4
100
100
8
3
90
90
95.00
95.00
80
80
86.25
86.25
70
70
77.50
77.50
68.75
6
2
4
2
1
60
60
68.75
0
0
50
50
60.00
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Source: Banco de España
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Sources: BIS, OECD, ECB and Banco de España.
60.00
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
Sources: BIS, ECB and Banco de España.
a) Before January 2007, building costs base 1990=100. b) Before December 1997, doubtful loans ratio of mortgage credit of banks and savings banks.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
BANCO DE ESPAÑA / SUMMARY ECONOMIC INDICATORS

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