Will highly educated women have more children in the future? The Austrian context Isabella Buber-Ennser Education and reproduction in low-fertility settings, Vienna, 2-4 December 2015 Childlessness among tertiary educated women 40 Share of childless women (%) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1925 1930 Switzerland 1935 1940 1945 1950 Cohorts West Germany Source: Stock et al. 2012; Zeman 1955 East Germany 1960 Austria 1965 Childlessness among tertiary educated women Exceptionally high levels of childlessness among tertiary educated women in AT, CH and W-DE 40 Share of childless women (%) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1925 1930 Switzerland 1935 1940 1945 1950 Cohorts West Germany Source: Stock et al. 2012; Zeman 1955 East Germany 1960 Austria 1965 Female researchers in Austria 45% of childlessness among female researchers in Austria (Buchholz 2004; Fieder et al. 2005) Western Germany: childlessness of Geman researchers and professors is even higher (50-60%) (Auferkorte-Michaelis et al. 2006; Metz-Göckel 2009; Krimmer et al. 2004) Considerable lower levels in Poland (25%), Sweden (20%), France and Spain (10%) Are the high levels of childlessness and the low number of children intended in Austria? What about women‘s ideals? How about their intentions? Educational differences in Austria 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-45 Researchers Personal ideal Source: Buber et al. 2011 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-45 Tertiary educated Intended number of children 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-45 Secondary and lower educated Actual number of children Enrolment rates of children under 3 From 2010 to 2013 enrolment rates have increased in Austria, especially in Vienna. Rates are still far below those reached in other OECD countries. p. 121 Source: OECD 2014 Combination of family and work The one full-timer/one part-timer family model prevails in Austria Source: OECD 2014, numbers refer to 2011 Modernized male breadwinner model 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 Both low-eduated Mother low, father high Both high-educated Mother high, father low 2005-09 Modernized male breadwinner model, y. child 3-5 years Predicted probabilities Predicted probabilities Modernized male breadwinner model, y. child 0-2 years 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 1980-84 Source: Berghammer 2014 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 Both low-eduated Mother low, father high Both high-educated Mother high, father low 2005-09 Re-traditionalisation among highly educated women Predicted probabilities Dual breadwinner model, youngest child 0-2 years 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 Both low-eduated Mother low, father high Both high-educated Mother high, father low 2005-09 Predicted probabilities Dual breadwinner model, youngest child 3-5 years Source: Berghammer 2014 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 Both low-eduated Mother low, father high Both high-educated Mother high, father low 2005-09 Re-traditionalisation among highly educated women Predicted probabilities Dual breadwinner model, youngest child 0-2 years Couples with children below age of three whose mothers are highly educated increasingly turn away from the dual breadwinner model and choose the modernized breadwinner model. 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 Both low-eduated Mother low, father high Both high-educated Mother high, father low 2005-09 Predicted probabilities Dual breadwinner model, youngest child 3-5 years Source: Berghammer 2014 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 Both low-eduated Mother low, father high Both high-educated Mother high, father low 2005-09 Gender pay gap Full-time wage gaps are larger than in comparable countries. Source: OECD 2014, 2015 Hourly wage gaps are the highest among comparable countries (2013) Global gender gap index 2014 Overall index and components. Higher scores mean more gender-equity. Source: OECD 2015, Platenga et al. 2009 Govenors in Austria Govenor Vienna (1,8 Mio.) Lower Austria (1,6) Upper Austria (1,4) Styria (1,2) Tyrol (0,7) Carinthia (0,6) Salzburg (0,5) Vorarlberg (0,4) Burgenland (0,2) Govenors in Austria Govenor Vienna (1,8 Mio.) Lower Austria (1,6) Upper Austria (1,4) Styria (1,2) Tyrol (0,7) Carinthia (0,6) Salzburg (0,5) Vorarlberg (0,4) Burgenland (0,2) Govenors in Austria Govenor Vienna (1,8 Mio.) Lower Austria (1,6) Upper Austria (1,4) Styria (1,2) Tyrol (0,7) Carinthia (0,6) Salzburg (0,5) Vorarlberg (0,4) Burgenland (0,2) 100% male Mean: 61 years Weighted: 64 years Govenors in Austria Govenor Vienna (1,8 Mio) Lower Austria (1,6) Upper Austria (1,4) Styria (1,2) Tyrol (0,7) Carinthia (0,6) Salzburg (0,5) Vorarlberg (0,4) Burgenland (0,2) 1st deputy govenor Govenors in Austria Govenor Vienna (1,8 Mio) Lower Austria (1,6) Upper Austria (1,4) Styria (1,2) Tyrol (0,7) Carinthia (0,6) Salzburg (0,5) Vorarlberg (0,4) Burgenland (0,2) 78% male Mean: 57 years Weighted: 61 years 1st deputy govenor Govenors in Austria Govenor Vienna (1,8 Mio) Lower Austria (1,6) Upper Austria (1,4) Styria (1,2) Tyrol (0,7) Carinthia (0,6) Salzburg (0,5) Vorarlberg (0,4) Burgenland (0,2) 1st deputy govenor 2nd deputy govenor Govenors in Austria Govenor Vienna (1,8 Mio) Lower Austria (1,6) Upper Austria (1,4) Styria (1,2) Tyrol (0,7) Carinthia (0,6) Salzburg (0,5) Vorarlberg (0,4) Burgenland (0,2) 71% male Mean: 54 years Weighted: 55 years 1st deputy govenor 2nd deputy govenor Recent OECD report on Austria OECD Economic Surveys. Austria. July 2015 Focus on gender mainstreaming of family and work Main findings: „Austria has in many respects led in way in gender equity, but its traditional model of separate gender roles of work, family and life arrangements is coming under strain.“ (p. 9) „Women with care obligations cannot participate fully in labour force, and men do not participate enough in family life. As a result, Austria has one of the highest gender pay gaps in the OECD“ (p. 9) Tentative conclusion Highly educated women want to participate in labor market Gender equity important aspect for combining family and work No indicators for steep increase in gender equity in Austria in the near future No predictors to assume a steep drop in childlessness of highly educated women in Austria Govenors in Austria Govenor 1st deputy govenor 2nd deputy govenor Vienna (1,8 Mio) 66 46 39 Lower Austria (1,6) 69 59 50 Upper Austria (1,4) 66 48 37 Styria (1,2) 63 63 Tyrol (0,7) 61 54 37 Carinthia (0,6) 57 50 50 Salzburg (0,5) 59 56 58 Vorarlberg (0,4) 48 60 Burgenland (0,2) 64 56 71% male Mean: 54 years Mean weighted by size of population: 64 years Govenors in Austria Govenor 1st deputy govenor 2nd deputy govenor Vienna Michael Häupl Maria Vassilakou Johann Gudenus Lower Austria Erwin Pröll Wolfgang Sobotka Karin Renner Upper Austria Josef Pühringer Thomas Stelzer Manfred Haimbuchner Salzburg Wilfried Haslauer Astrid Rössler Christian Stöckl Styria Hermann Schützenhöfer Michael Schickhofer Tyrol Günther Platter Josef Geisler Vorarlberg Markus Wallner Karlheinz Rüdisser Carinthia Peter Kaiser Beate Prettner Burgenland Hand Niessl Johann Tschürtz Ingrid Felipe Gabriele Schaunig-Kandut Govenors in Austria Govenor 1st deputy govenor 2nd deputy govenor Vienna (1,8 Mio) 66 46 39 Lower Austria (1,6) 69 59 50 Upper Austria (1,4) 66 48 37 Styria (1,2) 63 63 Tyrol (0,7) 61 54 37 Carinthia (0,6) 57 50 50 Salzburg (0,5) 59 56 58 Vorarlberg (0,4) 48 60 Burgenland (0,2) 64 56 Austrian universities Dual breadwinner model 0,8 Modernized male breadwinner model 0,7 Predicted probabilities 0,8 Per cent 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 0,1 1980-84 0 1980-84 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 Both low-eduated Mother low, father high Both high-educated Mother high, father low 2005-09 1985-89 1990-94 1995-99 2000-04 Both low-eduated Mother low, father high Both high-educated Mother high, father low
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