Which countries are most at risk from climate change and how can

4/7/2016
IRIN | Which countries are most at risk from climate change and how can we help?
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Which countrie
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NAIROI, 29 March 2016
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The countrie mot vulnerale
Wh
to climate change are among the
pooret and leat ale to
repond. How to reolve that
at
ec
ame
of
25
dilemma and help thee place
ou
ng
adapt to a warming world
Afg
han
remain among the knoiet
dep
orte
prolem facing climate
癥牰nancing.
es?
6
April
2016
The good news is that identifing those most in
need – step one – is now a good deal easier
thanks to a gloal league tale developed 
the Universit of Notre Dame.
Maj
or
dru
g
shor
The Notre Dame Gloal Adaptation Index (ND-
tag
e
GAIN) measures a countr’s vulnerailit in
hits
relation to its ailit to cope with climate change.
ou
th
ud
It calculates exposure to climate stress (for
example a reliance on agriculture); sensitivit to
the impact of climate shocks; and adaptive
capacit. It then scores a countr’s readiness –
an
7
April
2016
de䣀䡍ning that in terms of a willingness to
leverage its economic, governance and social
resources to reduce climate risk.
Poli
o
hop
es
According to the index, the world’s 䣀䡍ve worst
and
performers are ritrea, Chad, Central African
Zika
Repulic, udan and the Democratic Repulic of
fear
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IRIN | Which countries are most at risk from climate change and how can we help?
the Congo.  comparison, the over-achievers –
and ou'd guess at least a couple of them – are
New Zealand, Norwa, Denmark, the United
s in
the
vac
cine
race
Kingdom and German, in that order.
6
April
Hoora for Paris
2016
One of the important outcomes of the Paris
climate summit in Decemer was the recognition
that reducing greenhouse gasses is not enough.
advertisement
Adaptation – how to live with a warming world –
THE REACH GROUP
is now also accepted as ke, and there is a
greater realisation that poorer countries will
need support to help achieve that.
Paris a蚌ýrmed the 䣀䡍nancing target of $100 illion
a ear from pulic and private sources  2020.
A game-changer could also e the Green
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Climate Fund, which will devote 50 percent of all
its funding to adaptation, which has historicall
een overshadowed  spending on mitigation
projects like renewale energ.
“Paris was wonderful, ut what’s reall important
now is what happens on the ground,” said Koko
Warner, of the United Nations Universit’s
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Institute for nvironment and Human ecurit.
“The true ardstick of success is in these highl
vulnerale countries.”
Mone alone will not e enough to uild climate
[
]
securit. “The question of access to 䣀䡍nancing is
not a simple answer as it concerns multiple
challenges including technical capacit to
[
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]
develop ankale proposals, tackle the
knowledge and capacit gaps, and provide
access to resources needed to do the necessar
feasiilit studies,” arara uchner of the
Climate Polic Initiative said in an emailed
response.
“We need to 䣀䡍nd was to increase the
asorptive capacit of countries that need the
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IRIN | Which countries are most at risk from climate change and how can we help?
asorptive capacit of countries that need the
funding the most, and harmonise investment
standards, transparenc and governance
issues,” noted Warner. “We need more nuance
on how to deliver 䣀䡍nancing to reall help the
poor, to unravel the knots around climate impact
and livelihoods.”
That needs to happen quickl, ecause the
estimates are that the true climate ill will e in
the trillions rather than illions of dollars –
especiall if the world cannot keep elow two
degrees Celsius of gloal warming agreed in
Paris.
“We know that pulic resources in all countries
are stretched, and that $100 illion will not
satisf the needs on the ground,” said uchner.
“It is therefore essential that the $100 illion e
spent wisel. If we can do this, much more
private investment will ow.”
Making mone
The ND-GAIN index is more than a ranking
sstem. Its purpose is "to help usinesses and
the pulic sector etter prioritise investments for
a more e蚌ýcient response to the immediate
gloal challenges ahead,” explained Joce
Co㉤楧ee, ND-GAIN managing director.
"The private sector is looking for
Discover More
projects where it can make
mone," she added. "The won't
e investing in countries with poor
governance records, or social
structures that are completel
confusing to them." That, she
suggested, will e left to
multinational funding mechanisms
pies ans Frontières?
like the Green Climate Fund.
There is no reliale data on the scale of
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IRIN | Which countries are most at risk from climate change and how can we help?
There is no reliale data on the scale of
private investment owing to
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adaptation projects. ut, said uchner,
“private investment will e ke” and
therefore “domestic polic signals are
Green Climate
criticall important ecause all
Fund feel the
investors want to see impact, and value
heat
for mone.”
COP 21 - a turning
Improving the “ankailit" of projects
involves quantifing and enumerating
point?
risk, and allowing the market to track
progress, said Co㉤楧ee. The private
sector won't suddenl pivot to
rie癥牰ng on
climate 癥牰nancing
adaptation, ut we should make it
"more tempting".
A usiness case is easil made for the
mega alternative energ initiatives –
from solar to wind – sprouting across
the gloe. ut adaptation tends to e more
granular and local rather than immediatel
transformational.
“Tons to learn”
Warner acknowledges there is “tons to learn” –
ut if pulic polic managers can “set the
incentives, the private sector will respond”.
While corporates ma well hesitate to invest in
the most vulnerale countries, “it is important to
[
rememer that households and families in these
]
countries are also private investors,” said
uchner.
Developing projects that help them access
a㉤楧ordale, clean energ and expand sustainale
agriculture "can support economic development
and povert alleviation as well as climate
change,” she added.
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IRIN | Which countries are most at risk from climate change and how can we help?
There is a gulf etween genuine, communitappropriate adaptation projects and private
sector "green- washing" – good old-fashioned
PR spin. Co㉤楧ee cited a Coca-Cola initiative in an
unnamed countr to improve the water sources
where it ottles as a positive example that had a
ene䣀䡍t “eond its fence line”.
he also pointed to a mining 䣀䡍rm investing in
Mali that uilt a hospital as part of its adaptation
e㉤楧orts. Yes, improving healthcare is a form of
adaptation, ut she acknowledged a sense of
queasiness over that particular deal – with its
hint of contract sweetening.
“ut we can't turn our ack on investments. We
[
just need to demand more from the
]
corporates ,” she insisted.
Warner agreed, saing the magnitude of
investment and the scale-up required to respond
to climate change means there is a “signi䣀䡍cant
role for the pulic and private sector – we just
need to get the mix right”.
oa/ag
Photo credit: Alerto Guzman, NAA ARCCRT
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