人工知能学会研究会資料 SIG-KST-025-01(2015-07-29) 734/&!(M< QPTSAU-;9D5]IJ A Study on Ship Design and Decision-Making considering Market Fluctuation and Life Cycle Ò¢ s 1 Ää ¿» 2 ~s ç 1 Ĉã ¤ô 1 Kazuo Hiekata1, Taiga Mitsuyuki2, Hiroyuki Yamato1, and Tomoki Saito1 T~~Ā¡ąxgÑÎÓÑ Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo 2 T~~ĀÖÎÓÑ 2 Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo 1 1 Abstract: âá,êéMøÉ*Ă!âá G.?5.2IaY*eÌ,§~l* ýè*ªÎÓ!âá øÉ48; ~üd,n$*Æ ï~ă, Q*o¼\¯,!$*âá øðºè³ {}k,Ýâá â wM/L7LM@KAG (*âáêé° NPV(Net Present Value) ÕcMì\, ä#VLCC , îÂî ú'*êé°,ì\*3N889:-,ä âá,êéMøÉ*Ă!âá G.?5. 2IaY*eÌ,§~l*ýè * Ăâá øÉ48; ~üd,n$ *Æ ï~ă,Q*o¼\¯ }k,! $*{}kH82,Ý*èP p¶* {H82" âá âwM/L7 LM@KAG ^°,âáêé1@6FL {}kâá øÉõR ^ Ý(+* ·Ïâáêé \_, ì\*$¾ÁR|i Âxă ')}k*âá÷ß,Ýâáêé ÙÃì\¹$(+*Èv\_,Éâ áêé ÙÃì\[1]&àR âá }¥ ÙÃì\[2]+* ªÎÓ ÍË!{}k *$ âá êé°,êé ¸āì\*½,°* *#3N889:-Ă àò,øà* VLCC , î°½,ûÉ °½ ¨j ±ë,ä >A=F 2.1 BR °½ ²è,u. 1 а½!Q (+âáêé°,%âáßD:I,Z D:I`h+o¼\¯Møð6=H 1àò,øà6CEJN6FL,ä âáêé° Èv\_,Õc* " "! # $ "# " $ $ $ $ $ $ " ! # " " #" u. 1 °½ • # ²èu *本資料の著作権は著者に帰属します 2.2 QP:N#( âáêé°èâw/L7L@KAG z (âáßD:I,Z* /L7L tó (âö,Õc*$â áßD:I,Z*âáßD:I* /L7L fkćh (¨jćh" Vù ´u ,u 2 ÐbYË!¨jćh EHP âö V ÿ],Ü*âwD:Ifkćh BHP tó n ÿ],Ü*/L7LD:Ifkćh BHP ¨jćh EHP ÿ],Ü*@KAGD :I,Z* u. 3 o¼\¯6=H1*SĄ¯D:I, ÉZ6=H1Û [ u. 2 fkćh (¨jćh" 2.3 1E-@+[Y Vù ´u ' 6ŇőţŁĨùėģĪĆð7ĩ6Ŏũ ŊďĵĆ`kö©ĥ¤ Uĺ½'ėĆ āOŞ ŎŤĺòęķćĔĩŞŎŤĤĪĆ=øĨĎċģĆR ßĥęķĐ³©ĤĨħĶĆ³© ĤĨ ħķĥċČ 2 ĢĩL1ĺgPęķćĨªDĩø ĨĎēķĐĤĊķĥęķĥĆĩøĨĎēķ Ī³©ĤĨħĶĆ³© ĤĨħķć ā OĺZöėģċĒĔĥĨĴġģĆÕvøĨĹĞķ L1ĺÔªęķĔĥĐ<ËĤĊķć A-B øĩÌæĨĎēķà§ôõ 1 ŏŧĊĞĶĩïâ ĪĆ6ĨĴġģL1ęķïâI¤ ĺ ċģ\(1)ĤÔĖĸķćïâI¤ ĥĆïâ© FR Ĩ ùėģĪ6ĩK>ĥ?Ĩ āOŞŎŤĺò ęķć u. 4 øðyÅ6=H1*SĄ¯D:I, ÉZ6=H1Û [ (1) 6ŇőţŁĆïâI¤ŇőţŁĆïâ©Ňőţ ŁĨĎēķ āOŞŎŤĺċģkėĞŇőţŁ ÈĩĺB 3 ĥB 4 ĥB 5 Ĩ´ęćčīĆB 3 ĥB 4 ĤĪĆ2014 XĮĤĩ6ĩŏťŧŐĨ>ČĴČĨ āOŞŎŤĩœŢŝũŊĺPėĆĜĸûĩ6 ŇőţŁĺŞŧōłŤŦŇŜŠťũŇšŧĨĴġģÕ vkėģċķĔĥĐ(ďķć u. 5 øðÇ6=H1*SĄ¯D:I,É Z6=H1Û [ ;>?AC;@B0 2.4 CX#(+K8.0#( QHÎÍqîeËĺÊjęķĞıĨĆ²ºĤ ĪߪŎŤĥėģRßÌæĨĎēķŔŠũŖŀũŏă -üÀĩ®ª³©8ĬĆ=üÀĨĎēķÎì© ĩPÉĺÒċĆă-üÀĨPÉĖĸĞÉąħĦ ĩp[3]ďĵß^Āĺ½'ęķćB 6 ĨŔŠũŖŀ ũŏă-üÀĕĥĩ®ª³©ĺÛPėĞĺ´ęćĔĩ ĤĪĆç¯ÏĸĞßĺgPėģŔŠũŖŀũŏă -üÀĕĥĩ®ª³©ĺřũŊùvĨ]ģĪıķĔĥ ĤÛPėģċķć ÃX.2ŞŎŤĨĢċģĪĆÎÍĐÎ Ĩ" ė ģďĵĨ" ęķĮĤĩø(Dock-to-Dock)Ĥĩ.2Ć ŢĽŖņĽńŤ#ĤѸĖĸģċĒ.2(Age Effect)ĩ 2 ĢĨ(ēģÃX.2ŞŎŤ[4]ĺPÉęķć 5 5 5 , 5 5 +( 5 5 /'.5)" '.5 /'.5)" '.5 25 25 5 25 25 &15 15 &15 15 !6-6 !6-6 (74 (7 * * 1 =<91% 1 =<91% #!% 5)D3E =<:8B =<:8 D E u. 7 øà6CEJN6FL ;>?AC;@B$ À+ , 3.1 ,T5 u. 6 >EN?0N;ĆhāØ [ ÊÈÏÇ ê 2.5 [O"$),%* ïÌŇŜŠťũŇšŧĩ#ĩĸĺB. 7 Ĩ´ęć ĮĚĆŇŜŠťũŇšŧĐ÷NĖĸķĥĆĜĩĥđĨĎēķ VK¨ĺÊjėĞĤ 1 ÌĨĎēķŃşŌŇŠŖŦ ũ#ĺM2ęķÎìĺ½'ęķćĜĩaĆS'Ė ĸĞÎìĨRėģĆßŨÃX.2ŞŎŤĩ^ĀĺÊ jėģQýĩÎìĺS'ęķćħĎĆĔĩŖŦũĺ 1 | 5ĤÇĶéėÒċĆÌĐÁėĞüĤïâ9"Ć ¦xáĆ¢£áĆáħĦĩCPáďĵ9"ĥ t'ĩÙĐÒĹĸķć ÎÍĩ" }ĨĢċģĪĆ1 ÌĐÁėĞü Ĥ«aøĐPĩúĺäčģċķďĦČďĤ" ęķďĺ+yęķć" ėĞK>ĆÎÍĩÆ»Đ ÒĹĸķĔĥĺÊjėĆÃX.2ĨĴķeË©ĺ~ zęķć ĩ&«ĺĆıÛPęķÎÍĩŢĽŖņĽńŤ øĐÁęķĮĤÒČĔĥĤĆÎÍÛÙĩĺ @ªD(NPV)ĩØ¥ďĵ½'ęķć Ņ ũ ʼn ʼn Ŋ Ŏ ļ Ĥ Ī Ć Arabia Ū 3 Ð Ĥ ï Ė ĸ ķ VLCC ĨĎċģÃeÝĺÒČćĜĩýĆ¢øåþ Ī 6590[mile]ĆŢĽŖņĽńŤøĪ 5 XĆÎÍĩ" }ĺPęķ«aøĪ 2 XĥėĞć ĮĞĆÝRßĥħķÎÍÛÙĺ¬kęķĞıĩ ÎGĪĆßĩÏċK>ĺgPėģÛÙĖĸĞÎG A ĥßĩ¹ijďħK>ĺgPėģÛÙĖĸĞÎG B ĩ 2 ·ĂďĵónęķIJĩĥėĞćĮĞĆĿŧňŧĨĢċģ ĪĆWeb Ĥ$÷Ėĸģċķ[5]ĴĶ 1 ·ĂĩĿŧ ňŧĺkėĆŘŦŚŢĨĢċģĪ Barmitsas ĵĩ{ ĨĴĶŕŌŋ±_ĆT÷ÿ¸ĆŘŦŚŢ±_ĆŘŦ ŚŢŗťũŐ vĺ"-ĥėģĆŏŤńvĥvĺ ½'ęķĔĥĤ¬kėĞŘŦŚŢ 1 ·ĂĩįĺċķĔ ĥĥėĞć 3.2 GX\ QPTSAU¾ĤĪĆÎÍÛÙĨĎēķhdPĩØ¥ďĵĆ RßĩÌæĐÏċßĥ¹ijďħßĩĜĸĝĸĩ K>ĨĎċģĆßĩÏċK>ĺgPėģÛÙĖĸĞ ÎG A ĥĆßĩ¹ijďħK>ĺgPėģÛÙĖĸĞ ÎG B ĤĆNPV ĩØ¥ĤĦĩ¶YĩUЬĮĸķďĨ ĢċģÚęķć ¾ĤÛPėĞŔŠũŖŀũŏă-üÀĕĥĩ®ª ³©ĩÛPĺB 8 Ĩ´ęćAĩŅũʼnʼnŊŎļĤĪĆ ßĩ¹ijďħK>(Calm)ĥÏċK>(Rough)ĨĢċ ģĩ 2 ëĶĩK>ĺÛPėĞćĮĞĆÎì©Ī| ÎÍmÓ²º4ĨĴġģÒĹĸĞ VLCC ĩGÎĺ ċĞQĄĩÄ[6]ĺ!ĨPÉėĞćħĎĆĿŧ ňŧĥŘŦŚŢĨĢċģĪ?ĩIJĩĺċģċķćŇŜ ŠťũŇšŧAvĪ 30 AĥėĆ=ÎÍÛÙĤ½'Ėĸ Ğ NPV ĩWF8Ĭ¤ UĺÝĩRßĥėĞć ŒʼnŒľĩ:ĶčijÎĩ)yħĦĩuĩÂį >ĹěĥĆĜĸĵĩuĺÒČŤũŤĺÂįèĻğIJĩ ĺÎÍÛÙĥėģĆrlĨĴġģÝęķĔĥĤ Rc<ËĤĊķć LV u. 8 êo¼\¯Møð6=H1 =ŅũʼnĨĢċģĆÕvĩÎÍÛÙĨrlĺ òėĞĥđĩÎG8Ĭ NPV ĩWFĥ¤ UĺÔ 1 Ĩ´ęćÎGĩñċĨĴķ NPV ĩUĺçęķĥĆ¹ ijďħßĩK>ĤĪ 100 [$]ĆÏĸĞßĩK> 370 [$]ĥħġĞćĩÄďĵĆĜĸĝĸĩßĨ ĎēķgPėĞ 2 ĢĩÎGĩĺPõ2ęķĔĥĐĤ đĞć æ 1. PÏ,Ýqêé° Âî Calm Rough âw Ave. NPV [$] ì\Ú® STD [$] A 6.058 2.222 B 6.048 2.204 A 6.048 2.212 6.011 2.157 B ²ºĤĪĆVKL1ĨRcęķĞıĩÎÍÛÙ ĺĆÛÙĩüĤÝęķlĺrėĞć%¯ ĨĪĆ6ĥïâL1Ćïâ©ĩ¡ĨcĘĞÎ ÍÛÙĩŢĽŖņĽńŤĺĆ@ªD(NPV)ĩØ ¥ďĵÝęķĞıĩŞŎŤ2ĥĆQH^ĀijÃX .2ħĦĺÂįèĻğïÌŇŜŠťũŇšŧĩ¿ĺÒ ġĞć ĮĞĆŅũʼnʼnŊŎļĥėģĈ3ÐŪArabia øĉĺïÌ ęķ VLCC ĩïÌĺRßĨrlĺòėĆĜĩ 0eĩÜĺÒġĞćŅũʼnʼnŊŎļĨĎċģĆ¹ijď ħßĺgPėĞK>ĩÎGĺoĢÎÍÛÙĥĆÏ ċßĺgPėĞK>ĩÎGĺoĢÎÍÛÙĩ ĩñċĺPõ¯ĨÝęķĔĥĐĤđĞć aĪĆïÌêĤĩ¨ĩL2ĨRcėĞu ĥuĺÒČŤũŤĺÂįèĻğÎÍÛÙĺÝ ęķĞıĩŇŜŠťũŊĩ÷®Ĩ:ĶÂİć WZ ²ºĪ JSPS µ²á 15H04208 ĩ/kĺ;ēĞIJ ĩĤęć M6 2M?H ÞwĤĪĆßĩñċĨĎēķÎÍÛÙĩÝ ĺĭķŅũʼnʼnŊŎļĺÒġĞćAĩŅũʼnʼnŊ ŎļĪĆ5Ĩ*ĩÎÍÛÙĩñċĐčķ^Āĺ Põ2ęķIJĩĤĊġĞćėďėħĐĵĆvXaĨĵ ďĩ×,ij¨ĩL2ĐãĔġĞK>ĨĪĆ'®Eĥ °¯EĐÅĤĪĊķĐQýĨïÌęķŤũŏĺL~ ęķbÖĐĊķħĦĩRcĐÊčĵĸķćĜĩĴČħ iĐ®¬ėĞ}ĨĆılĤ¨ĩL2ĨĴġģ Ħĩ¶YĐL2ęķďĺPõ¯ĨÝėģĎĒĔĥ ĪıģôÖĤĊķć ĮĞĆÎÍĩIÛÙĺÒČýĨĪĆÎÍĩ êğēĤħĒĆgPęķÌĩÌæijßĆśũŅŌŏ ĩfJħĦĺÊjėģĦĩĴČħÎÍĺ[íęķďĺÊ čģhdPĺÒČbÖĐĊķćĮĞĆVKĩL1ţʼnń ijĜĸĨcĘĞÌæL~ĨRcęķĔĥĺÊčķĥĆÎ ÍĩÎGŨĿŧňŧŨŘŦŚŢĩuĺÎÍÛÙŁŘ ŇšŧĥėģoĠĆVKL1ĨcĘģÎÍĩïêĤ ĩuĺÒČĔĥĐR¼ĥėģÊčĵĸķćAĩr lĨĆĿŧňŧijŘŦŚŢĩsĆÎGĨĎēķŒŤ [] Adachi Masaki, Kosaka Hiroyuki, Fukuda Tetsugo, Ohashi Shota, Harumi Kazuyoshi: Economic analysis of trans-ocean LNG-fueled container ship, Journal of Marine Science and Technology, Vol.19, pp.470-478, (2014) [] Sigbjorn Sodal, Steen Koekebakker, Roar Aadland : Market switching in shipping – A real option model applied to the valuation of combination carriers, Review of Financial Economics, Vol. 17, Issue 3, pp.183-203, (2008) [] X©×, et al.  10 DN<³ þÊ, ÂO åaÎÓzr, Vol. 9, No. 4, pp. 219-264, (2010) [] «¬¿, 6NBN7L@KAGêé, £ªáɵ ÿUí, Vol. 7, No. 9, pp. 643-651, (1972) [] Mitsubishi Co., MITSUBISHI UEC80LSE-Eco-B1, https://www.mhi.co.jp/products/pdf/UEC80LSE-Eco-B1. pdf, Accecced on 2015/07/25 [] £ªâáåÎÓmU, ~wWöñÞ~â øàß½ Âx ÏÔ, ®²èzr¦, (2011)
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