人工知能学会研究会資料
SIG-KST-025-01(2015-07-29)
734/&!(M<
QPTSAU-;9D5]IJ
A Study on Ship Design and Decision-Making considering Market Fluctuation and
Life Cycle
Ò¢ s 1 Ää ¿» 2 ~s ç 1 Ĉã ¤ô 1
Kazuo Hiekata1, Taiga Mitsuyuki2, Hiroyuki Yamato1, and Tomoki Saito1
T~~Ā¡ąxgÑÎÓÑ
Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of Tokyo
2
T~~ĀÖÎÓÑ
2
Graduate School of Engineering, The University of Tokyo
1
1
Abstract: âá,êéMøÉ*Ă!âá G.?5.2IaY*eÌ,§~l*
ýè*ªÎÓ!âá øÉ48; ~üd,n$*Æ ï~ă,
Q*o¼\¯,!$*âá øðºè³ {}k,Ýâá â
wM/L7LM@KAG
(*âáêé° NPV(Net Present Value) ÕcMì\,
ä#VLCC ,
îÂî ú'*êé°,ì\*3N889:-,ä
âá,êéMøÉ*Ă!âá G.?5.
2IaY*eÌ,§~l*ýè
* Ăâá øÉ48; ~üd,n$
*Æ ï~ă,Q*o¼\¯ }k,!
$*{}kH82,Ý*èP
p¶*
{H82"
âá âwM/L7
LM@KAG ^°,âáêé1@6FL
{}kâá øÉõR ^
Ý(+*
·Ïâáêé \_,
ì\*$¾ÁR|i Âxă
')}k*âá÷ß,Ýâáêé
ÙÃì\¹$(+*Èv\_,Éâ
áêé ÙÃì\[1]&àR âá }¥
ÙÃì\[2]+*
ªÎÓ ÍË!{}k
*$ âá
êé°,êé ¸āì\*½,°*
*#3N889:-Ă
àò,øà* VLCC ,
î°½,ûÉ
°½ ¨j ±ë,ä
>A=F
2.1 BR
°½ ²è,u. 1 а½!Q
(+âáêé°,%âáßD:I,Z
D:I`h+o¼\¯Møð6=H
1àò,øà6CEJN6FL,ä
âáêé° Èv\_,Õc*
" "!
#
$ "# "
$
$
$
$
$
$
" ! #
" "
#"
u. 1 °½
• # ²èu
＊本資料の著作権は著者に帰属します
2.2 QP:N#(
âáêé°èâw/L7L@KAG
z
(âáßD:I,Z*
/L7L tó
(âö,Õc*$â
áßD:I,Z*âáßD:I*
/L7L fkćh
(¨jćh" Vù ´u
,u 2 ÐbYË!¨jćh EHP âö V
ÿ],Ü*âwD:Ifkćh BHP tó
n
ÿ],Ü*/L7LD:Ifkćh
BHP ¨jćh EHP ÿ],Ü*@KAGD
:I,Z*
u. 3 o¼\¯6=H1*SĄ¯D:I,
ÉZ6=H1Û [
u. 2 fkćh
(¨jćh"
2.3 1E-@+[Y
Vù
´u
'
6ŇőţŁĨùėģĪĆð7ĩ6Ŏũ
ŊďĵĆ`kö©ĥ¤ Uĺ½'ėĆ
āOŞ
ŎŤĺòęķćĔĩŞŎŤĤĪĆ=øĨĎċģĆR
ßĥęķĐ³©ĤĨħĶĆ³© ĤĨ
ħķĥċČ 2 ĢĩL1ĺgPęķćĨªDĩø
ĨĎēķĐĤĊķĥęķĥĆĩøĨĎēķ
Ī³©ĤĨħĶĆ³© ĤĨħķć
ā
OĺZöėģċĒĔĥĨĴġģĆÕvøĨĹĞķ
L1ĺÔªęķĔĥĐ<ËĤĊķć
A-B øĩÌæĨĎēķà§ôõ 1 ŏŧĊĞĶĩïâ
ĪĆ6ĨĴġģL1ęķïâI¤ ĺ
ċģ\(1)ĤÔĖĸķćïâI¤ ĥĆïâ© FR Ĩ
ùėģĪ6ĩK>ĥ?Ĩ
āOŞŎŤĺò
ęķć
u. 4 øðyÅ6=H1*SĄ¯D:I,
ÉZ6=H1Û [
(1)
6ŇőţŁĆïâI¤ŇőţŁĆïâ©Ňőţ
ŁĨĎēķ
āOŞŎŤĺċģkėĞŇőţŁ
ÈĩĺB 3 ĥB 4 ĥB 5 Ĩ´ęćčīĆB 3 ĥB 4
ĤĪĆ2014 XĮĤĩ6ĩŏťŧŐĨ>ČĴČĨ
āOŞŎŤĩœŢŝũŊĺPėĆĜĸûĩ6
ŇőţŁĺŞŧōłŤŦŇŜŠťũŇšŧĨĴġģÕ
vkėģċķĔĥĐ(ďķć
u. 5 øðÇ6=H1*SĄ¯D:I,É
Z6=H1Û [
;>?AC;@B0
2.4 CX#(+K8.0#(
QHÎÍqîeËĺÊjęķĞıĨĆ²ºĤ
ĪߪŎŤĥėģRßÌæĨĎēķŔŠũŖŀũŏă
-üÀĩ®ª³©8ĬĆ=üÀĨĎēķÎì©
ĩPÉĺÒċĆă-üÀĨPÉĖĸĞÉąħĦ
ĩp[3]ďĵß^Āĺ½'ęķćB 6 ĨŔŠũŖŀ
ũŏă-üÀĕĥĩ®ª³©ĺÛPėĞĺ´ęćĔĩ
ĤĪĆç¯ÏĸĞßĺgPėģŔŠũŖŀũŏă
-üÀĕĥĩ®ª³©ĺřũŊùvĨ]ģĪıķĔĥ
ĤÛPėģċķć
ÃX.2ŞŎŤĨĢċģĪĆÎÍĐÎ Ĩ" ė
ģďĵĨ" ęķĮĤĩø(Dock-to-Dock)Ĥĩ.2Ć
ŢĽŖņĽńŤ#ĤѸĖĸģċĒ.2(Age Effect)ĩ
2 ĢĨ(ēģÃX.2ŞŎŤ[4]ĺPÉęķć
5
5
5
,
5
5
+(
5
5
/'.5)"
'.5
/'.5)"
'.5
25
25
5
25
25
&15
15
&15
15
!6-6
!6-6
(74
(7
*
*
1
=<91%
1
=<91%
#!%
5)D3E
=<:8B
=<:8
D
E
u. 7 øà6CEJN6FL
;>?AC;@B$
À+
,
3.1 ,T5
u. 6 >EN?0N;ĆhāØ
[
ÊÈÏÇ
ê
2.5 [O"$),%*
ïÌŇŜŠťũŇšŧĩ#ĩĸĺB. 7 Ĩ´ęć
ĮĚĆŇŜŠťũŇšŧĐ÷NĖĸķĥĆĜĩĥđĨĎēķ
VK¨ĺÊjėĞĤ 1 ÌĨĎēķŃşŌŇŠŖŦ
ũ#ĺM2ęķÎìĺ½'ęķćĜĩaĆS'Ė
ĸĞÎìĨRėģĆßŨÃX.2ŞŎŤĩ^ĀĺÊ
jėģQýĩÎìĺS'ęķćħĎĆĔĩŖŦũĺ 1 |
5ĤÇĶéėÒċĆÌĐÁėĞüĤïâ9"Ć
¦xáĆ¢£áĆáħĦĩCPáďĵ9"ĥ
t'ĩÙĐÒĹĸķć
ÎÍĩ" }ĨĢċģĪĆ1 ÌĐÁėĞü
Ĥ«aøĐPĩúĺäčģċķďĦČďĤ"
ęķďĺ+yęķć" ėĞK>ĆÎÍĩÆ»Đ
ÒĹĸķĔĥĺÊjėĆÃX.2ĨĴķeË©ĺ~
zęķć
ĩ&«ĺĆıÛPęķÎÍĩŢĽŖņĽńŤ
øĐÁęķĮĤÒČĔĥĤĆÎÍÛÙĩĺ
@ªD(NPV)ĩØ¥ďĵ½'ęķć
Ņ ũ ʼn ʼn Ŋ Ŏ ļ Ĥ Ī Ć Arabia Ū 3 Ð Ĥ ï Ė ĸ ķ
VLCC ĨĎċģÃeÝĺÒČćĜĩýĆ¢øåþ
Ī 6590[mile]ĆŢĽŖņĽńŤøĪ 5 XĆÎÍĩ" }ĺPęķ«aøĪ 2 XĥėĞć
ĮĞĆÝRßĥħķÎÍÛÙĺ¬kęķĞıĩ
ÎGĪĆßĩÏċK>ĺgPėģÛÙĖĸĞÎG A
ĥßĩ¹ijďħK>ĺgPėģÛÙĖĸĞÎG B ĩ
2 ·ĂďĵónęķIJĩĥėĞćĮĞĆĿŧňŧĨĢċģ
ĪĆWeb Ĥ$÷Ėĸģċķ[5]ĴĶ 1 ·ĂĩĿŧ
ňŧĺkėĆŘŦŚŢĨĢċģĪ Barmitsas ĵĩ{
ĨĴĶŕŌŋ±_ĆT÷ÿ¸ĆŘŦŚŢ±_ĆŘŦ
ŚŢŗťũŐ
vĺ"-ĥėģĆŏŤńvĥvĺ
½'ęķĔĥĤ¬kėĞŘŦŚŢ 1 ·ĂĩįĺċķĔ
ĥĥėĞć
3.2 GX\
QPTSAU¾ĤĪĆÎÍÛÙĨĎēķhdPĩØ¥ďĵĆ
RßĩÌæĐÏċßĥ¹ijďħßĩĜĸĝĸĩ
K>ĨĎċģĆßĩÏċK>ĺgPėģÛÙĖĸĞ
ÎG A ĥĆßĩ¹ijďħK>ĺgPėģÛÙĖĸĞ
ÎG B ĤĆNPV ĩØ¥ĤĦĩ¶YĩUЬĮĸķďĨ
ĢċģÚęķć
¾ĤÛPėĞŔŠũŖŀũŏă-üÀĕĥĩ®ª
³©ĩÛPĺB 8 Ĩ´ęćAĩŅũʼnʼnŊŎļĤĪĆ
ßĩ¹ijďħK>(Calm)ĥÏċK>(Rough)ĨĢċ
ģĩ 2 ëĶĩK>ĺÛPėĞćĮĞĆÎì©Ī|
ÎÍmÓ²º4ĨĴġģÒĹĸĞ VLCC ĩGÎĺ
ċĞQĄĩÄ[6]ĺ!ĨPÉėĞćħĎĆĿŧ
ňŧĥŘŦŚŢĨĢċģĪ?ĩIJĩĺċģċķćŇŜ
ŠťũŇšŧAvĪ 30 AĥėĆ=ÎÍÛÙĤ½'Ėĸ
Ğ NPV ĩWF8Ĭ¤ UĺÝĩRßĥėĞć
ŒʼnŒľĩ:ĶčijÎĩ)yħĦĩuĩÂį
>ĹěĥĆĜĸĵĩuĺÒČŤũŤĺÂįèĻğIJĩ
ĺÎÍÛÙĥėģĆrlĨĴġģÝęķĔĥĤ
Rc<ËĤĊķć
LV
u. 8 êo¼\¯Møð6=H1
=ŅũʼnĨĢċģĆÕvĩÎÍÛÙĨrlĺ
òėĞĥđĩÎG8Ĭ NPV ĩWFĥ¤ UĺÔ 1
Ĩ´ęćÎGĩñċĨĴķ NPV ĩUĺçęķĥĆ¹
ijďħßĩK>ĤĪ 100 [$]ĆÏĸĞßĩK>
370 [$]ĥħġĞćĩÄďĵĆĜĸĝĸĩßĨ
ĎēķgPėĞ 2 ĢĩÎGĩĺPõ2ęķĔĥĐĤ
đĞć
æ 1. PÏ,Ýqêé°
Âî
Calm
Rough
âw
Ave. NPV [$]
ì\Ú®
STD [$]
A
6.058 2.222 B
6.048 2.204 A
6.048 2.212 6.011 2.157 B
²ºĤĪĆVKL1ĨRcęķĞıĩÎÍÛÙ
ĺĆÛÙĩüĤÝęķlĺrėĞć%¯
ĨĪĆ6ĥïâL1Ćïâ©ĩ¡ĨcĘĞÎ
ÍÛÙĩŢĽŖņĽńŤĺĆ@ªD(NPV)ĩØ
¥ďĵÝęķĞıĩŞŎŤ2ĥĆQH^ĀijÃX
.2ħĦĺÂįèĻğïÌŇŜŠťũŇšŧĩ¿ĺÒ
ġĞć
ĮĞĆŅũʼnʼnŊŎļĥėģĈ3ÐŪArabia øĉĺïÌ
ęķ VLCC ĩïÌĺRßĨrlĺòėĆĜĩ
0eĩÜĺÒġĞćŅũʼnʼnŊŎļĨĎċģĆ¹ijď
ħßĺgPėĞK>ĩÎGĺoĢÎÍÛÙĥĆÏ
ċßĺgPėĞK>ĩÎGĺoĢÎÍÛÙĩ
ĩñċĺPõ¯ĨÝęķĔĥĐĤđĞć
aĪĆïÌêĤĩ¨ĩL2ĨRcėĞu
ĥuĺÒČŤũŤĺÂįèĻğÎÍÛÙĺÝ
ęķĞıĩŇŜŠťũŊĩ÷®Ĩ:ĶÂİć
WZ
²ºĪ JSPS µ²á 15H04208 ĩ/kĺ;ēĞIJ
ĩĤęć
M6
2M?H
ÞwĤĪĆßĩñċĨĎēķÎÍÛÙĩÝ
ĺĭķŅũʼnʼnŊŎļĺÒġĞćAĩŅũʼnʼnŊ
ŎļĪĆ5Ĩ*ĩÎÍÛÙĩñċĐčķ^Āĺ
Põ2ęķIJĩĤĊġĞćėďėħĐĵĆvXaĨĵ
ďĩ×,ij¨ĩL2ĐãĔġĞK>ĨĪĆ'®Eĥ
°¯EĐÅĤĪĊķĐQýĨïÌęķŤũŏĺL~
ęķbÖĐĊķħĦĩRcĐÊčĵĸķćĜĩĴČħ
iĐ®¬ėĞ}ĨĆılĤ¨ĩL2ĨĴġģ
Ħĩ¶YĐL2ęķďĺPõ¯ĨÝėģĎĒĔĥ
ĪıģôÖĤĊķć
ĮĞĆÎÍĩIÛÙĺÒČýĨĪĆÎÍĩ
êğēĤħĒĆgPęķÌĩÌæijßĆśũŅŌŏ
ĩfJħĦĺÊjėģĦĩĴČħÎÍĺ[íęķďĺÊ
čģhdPĺÒČbÖĐĊķćĮĞĆVKĩL1ţʼnń
ijĜĸĨcĘĞÌæL~ĨRcęķĔĥĺÊčķĥĆÎ
ÍĩÎGŨĿŧňŧŨŘŦŚŢĩuĺÎÍÛÙŁŘ
ŇšŧĥėģoĠĆVKL1ĨcĘģÎÍĩïêĤ
ĩuĺÒČĔĥĐR¼ĥėģÊčĵĸķćAĩr
lĨĆĿŧňŧijŘŦŚŢĩsĆÎGĨĎēķŒŤ
[] Adachi Masaki, Kosaka Hiroyuki, Fukuda Tetsugo,
Ohashi Shota, Harumi Kazuyoshi: Economic analysis of
trans-ocean LNG-fueled container ship, Journal of Marine
Science and Technology, Vol.19, pp.470-478, (2014)
[] Sigbjorn Sodal, Steen Koekebakker, Roar Aadland :
Market switching in shipping – A real option model
applied to the valuation of combination carriers, Review
of Financial Economics, Vol. 17, Issue 3, pp.183-203,
(2008)
[] X©×, et al. Â
10 DN<³
þÊ, ÂO
åaÎÓzr, Vol. 9, No. 4, pp. 219-264, (2010)
[] «¬¿, 6NBN7L@KAGêé, £ªáɵ
ÿUí, Vol. 7, No. 9, pp. 643-651, (1972)
[] Mitsubishi Co., MITSUBISHI UEC80LSE-Eco-B1,
https://www.mhi.co.jp/products/pdf/UEC80LSE-Eco-B1.
pdf, Accecced on 2015/07/25
[] £ªâáåÎÓmU, ~wWöñÞ~â
øàß½
Âx
ÏÔ, ®²èzr¦, (2011)
© Copyright 2024 ExpyDoc
