パリの合意と決定のドラフト文書の分析

第 10 回スクール・パリ
「パリの合意と決定のドラフト分析」
ＷＷF ジャパン小西雅子
2015 年 11 月 19 日
第 10 回スクール・パリ
パリの合意と決定のドラフト文書の分析
出典：FCCC/CP/2015/7
パリ合意における成功とは？
パリの合意では、各国の目標草案を足し合わせても全体として削減量が足りない。しかし、気温上昇は累積
排出量であるため、その段階で 2 度シナリオが自動的に不可能になるわけではない。したがって、パリにお
ける合意が、
“2 度未満達成シナリオの途上”であり、その後に削減量を増加させていくサイクルが、パリの
合意として次善の策ではないかという認識が広がっている。
そのためには、2030 年を超えた長期目標がなるべく具体的で、各国のコミットメントを強く促すものであ
ることが望まれる。
と同時に、システムとしてさらなる削減へ向かっていく、つまりパリの合意でとどまらず、その後に長く続
く制度が構築される一歩という位置づけになることが重要。つまりサイクルが必要となる。たとえば約束期
間を 5 年とか 10 年とか決めて、その段階になると自動的に次の目標を決めて、しかもその目標は前の約束
期間を上回っていくことなどが決まっていると、今までのように、京都議定書、コペンハーゲン合意、カン
クン合意、など紆余曲折の国際交渉を経て、その都度制度の存続をかけた交渉を繰り広げられる、などとい
ったことがなくなる。そのためには、長期に制度があり、常時削減目標が上げられていく（ratcheting up）
されていくことが保障される制度が、今回のパリで決まれば、なんとかオーケーなのではないかという考え
である。そのために、サイクルを入れた制度を、今回のパリの合意で決めていく必要がある。
つまり、パリの合意で 2 度シナリオを達成することは不可能であっても、その後に長く続く制度が合意され
て、長期的に削減を目指すという制度が立ち上がって、パリの合意が、低炭素社会へ向けた”通過点“であ
る結果になることが考えられている。
1
第 10 回スクール・パリ
「パリの合意と決定のドラフト分析」
ＷＷF ジャパン小西雅子
2015 年 11 月 19 日
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第 10 回スクール・パリ
「パリの合意と決定のドラフト分析」
ＷＷF ジャパン小西雅子
2015 年 11 月 19 日
年末にフランス・パリで開催される COP21 に向けて、2015 年に 4 回開催された ADP において、共同
議長案がその都度出されてきたが、ようやく 10 月会合（ADP2.11）において、そのドラフトが、「共同議
長の私案」ではなく、Parties owned text (Draft agreement and draft decision on workstream 1 and 2 of
ADP version of 23 October 2015)：:つまり各国が自分たちの合意案として認めたものが出来上がった。
その Parties Text を元に、11 月 10 日に出されたパリの合意と決定のドラフトを解説する。
NEW! Edited draft agreement and draft decision on workstreams 1 and 2 of the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban
Platform for Enhanced Action (10 Nov)
=> MS Word version
NEW! Edited draft decision on workstream 2 of the Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (10
Nov)
=> MS Word version
NEW! Technical paper identifying closely related concepts, duplication and possible areas for streamlining in the draft
Agreement and draft Decision
この直前勉強会では、見どころを全体にかかるポイント二つと、合意のコアとなる 5 つのポイントに分
けて、テキストの例から見て説明していく。
１．全体にかかるポイント
１．１．差異化（くわしくは、WWF 山岸尚之資料参照）
国の差異化は、先進国/途上国を 2 分した型（Annex 1/Non Annex1、Developed/Developing countries）と、
自己差異化型(self differentiation)との両極の間で揺れている
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第 10 回スクール・パリ
「パリの合意と決定のドラフト分析」
ＷＷF ジャパン小西雅子
2015 年 11 月 19 日
（注目点１）緩和
p.4.Article3 {Individual efforts} 自己差異化（すべての国対象）
2.
Option 1: Each Party [shall][should][other] regularly [prepare] communicate [maintain] [fulfill]
[implement] [a] [successive] nationally determined mitigation [contribution][commitment][component of
the contribution referred to in Article 2bis] (NDMC), which the Party [shall][should][other] implement.
Option 2: [Each Party][All Parties] [recognizing the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities
and respective capabilities] [shall][should][other] regularly [formulate] [prepare], [communicate] [submit],
[maintain] [update] and [shall][should][other] [implement] [fulfill] [intended][nationally determined
mitigation [commitments][contributions][actions]] [nationally determined mitigation commitments and/or
contributions] [a nationally determined contribution with a mitigation component], [, which can be in the
form of co-benefits resulting from [its] [the Party’s] adaptation contributions and economic diversification
plans] [programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change] (NDMC/NDMCC) [ placeholder of
context, principles, Art 4, support, etc.]1
{Differentiated efforts} 差異化した緩和努力
Option 1: (paragraph 3):
3.
No text additional to paragraph 2 above.
Option 2: (paragraphs 3-3quater)
3.
In accordance with Article 4, paragraph 2, of the Convention, developed country Parties and other Parties
included in Annex I shall undertake quantified economy-wide absolute emission reduction
commitments/targets, which are comparable, measurable, reportable and verifiable, cover all greenhouse
gases and are implemented domestically without any conditions.
3bis. In accordance with Article 4, paragraphs 1, 3, 4, 5 and 7, of the Convention, developing country Parties
should undertake diversified enhanced mitigation actions/efforts in a measurable, reportable, and
verifiable manner, in the context of sustainable development and supported and enabled by the provision of
adequate finance, technology and capacity-building by developed country Parties.
3ter. Developed country Parties’ post-2020 economy-wide absolute emission reduction commitments/targets shall
be progressively more ambitious over time.
3quater. Developing country Parties’ post-2020 diversified enhanced mitigation actions/efforts will be more
ambitious than their pre-2020 actions under the Bali Action Plan, supported and enabled by enhanced
finance, technology development and transfer and capacity-building by developed country Parties over
time.
Option 3:
{add following to option 1 of paragraph 2 of this Article}: [in accordance with][taking into account] its
common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national
circumstances {principle based differentiation} 原則に基づいた差異化
Option 4: (paragraphs 3-3ter) {modulators to paragraph 2 of this Article}
3.
Option (a): Each Party that has previously [communicated] [implemented] absolute economy-wide
emissions reduction or limitation targets should continue to do so and all Parties should aim to do so over
time. {modality based differentiation option 1 + progression of modalities}削減目標の様式を差異化した差異
化
Option (b): Developed country Parties [and other Parties [in a position][that determine] to do so] should
take the lead in mitigation efforts, including by [communicating] [and implementing] absolute
economy-wide emissions reduction [or limitation] targets and all other Parties should aim to do so over time.
{developed countries taking the lead + modality based differentiation option 2}
1
Indicate linkage with Art 2 bis general, legal issue, housing, timing. The placing of this paragraph needs to be further discussed.
4
第 10 回スクール・パリ
「パリの合意と決定のドラフト分析」
ＷＷF ジャパン小西雅子
2015 年 11 月 19 日
[Parties may otherwise communicate quantified targets relative to business as usual, carbon intensity of
gross domestic product, or other reference point, or non-economy-wide actions.]
3bis. Option (a): Each Party’s NDMC/NDMCC [shall][should][other] reflect a progression beyond the Party’s
previous efforts and highest possible ambition {level of ambition + progression}
[in accordance with][taking into account] its common but differentiated responsibilities and respective
capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances {principle based differentiation}
Option (b): Each Party’s NDMC/NDMCC [shall][should][other] reflect the highest possible ambition [level
of ambition]
[in accordance with][taking into account] its common but differentiated responsibilities and respective
capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances {principle based differentiation}
2
3ter. Notwithstanding paragraphs 2 and 3 of this Article, Parties that are LDCs or SIDs may communicate their
NDMC/NDMCC at their discretion, including information on strategies, plans and actions for low
greenhouse gas emission development, reflecting their special circumstances. {applies to all options for
Differentiated efforts in this Article}
（注目点２）資金における差異化
１．２．法的形式（くわしくは第 9 回スクール・パリ高村ゆかり氏の資料参照）
（注目点１）合意の形と法的拘束力について
（注目点２）緩和の法的拘束力について
p.4.Article3 {Individual efforts} 目標を持って提出することは義務化、しかし達成は義務化しない？
2.
Option 1: Each Party [shall][should][other] regularly [prepare] communicate [maintain] [fulfill]
[implement] [a] [successive] nationally determined mitigation [contribution][commitment][component of
the contribution referred to in Article 2bis] (NDMC), which the Party [shall][should][other] implement.
Option 2: [Each Party][All Parties] [recognizing the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities
and respective capabilities] [shall][should][other] regularly [formulate] [prepare], [communicate] [submit],
[maintain] [update] and [shall][should][other] [implement] [fulfill] [intended][nationally determined
mitigation [commitments][contributions][actions]] [nationally determined mitigation commitments and/or
contributions] [a nationally determined contribution with a mitigation component], [, which can be in the
form of co-benefits resulting from [its] [the Party’s] adaptation contributions and economic diversification
plans] [programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change] (NDMC/NDMCC) [ placeholder of
context, principles, Art 4, support, etc.]3
{Housing}目標の置き場所は目標の法的拘束力と関連する
9.
Option 1: [The NDMC/NDMCC communicated by Parties shall be [listed][published] [in an online registry
maintained by the secretariat][ in Annex [X] to this Agreement][on the UNFCCC website].]
Option 2: [The NDMC/NDMCC communicated by developed country Parties shall be inscribed in Annex A
to this Agreement.2分論
The NDMC/NDMCC communicated by developing country Parties shall be inscribed in Annex B to this
Agreement.]
2
3
This provision may apply to other parts of this Article, in particular features and housing.
Indicate linkage with Art 2 bis general, legal issue, housing, timing. The placing of this paragraph needs to be further discussed.
5
第 10 回スクール・パリ
「パリの合意と決定のドラフト分析」
ＷＷF ジャパン小西雅子
2015 年 11 月 19 日
目標草案をどこに置くのかは重要な交渉点（housing）
コア合意の中(ex.Annex)か外(ex:Online registry)か
コア合意の中ならば、削減実施を義務化かどうかは別としてもより実施を担保することが可能、一方、コア合
意の中におくと、目標の改善に改正手続きが必要となり、低いレベルの目標ならば低いままで固定化する恐れ。
もっとも中においても、目標の改定を簡単にするという規定はありうる（Option にあり）
②COP 決定ならば、法的拘束力は持たなくなるが、公式な位置づけとなり、各国の合意がとりつけられたも
のとなる。ただし、他国の国別目標に対しての合意は困難かもしれない。
③コア合意の外ならば、実施の担保は法的に拘束力を持たなくなるので、MRV など他の手法で実施を推進し
なければならない。ただし各国の目標改定は面倒な手続きなしに行えるようになりやすい。
２．サイクルのある合意のコアとなる 5 つのポイント
２．１．長期目標

長期的に具体的な目標があるほど、サイクルを持った永続的な仕組みが強固になる

ここでも差異化が対立点：長期目標が、全体としてか、先進国・途上国 2 分化か
P3. Article 2 (PURPOSE)
Option I:
1.
The purpose of this Agreement is [to enhance the implementation of the Convention and] to achieve
[its][the] objective [of the Convention] as stated in its Article 2. In order to strengthen and support the
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第 10 回スクール・パリ
「パリの合意と決定のドラフト分析」
ＷＷF ジャパン小西雅子
2015 年 11 月 19 日
global response to the urgent threat of climate change, Parties [shall][agree to] to take urgent action and
enhance [cooperation][support] so as to:
(a)
Hold the increase in the global average temperature [below 2 °C][below 1.5 °C][well below 2 °C][below
2 °C or 1.5 °C] [below 1.5 °C or 2 °C][as far below 2 °C as possible] above pre-industrial levels by
ensuring deep cuts in global greenhouse gas [net] emissions;気温目標
(b)
Pursue a transformation towards sustainable development, to foster societies that are resilient to
climate change and economies with low greenhouse gas emissions and to ensure that food production
and distribution are not threatened;
(c)
Increase their ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change [and to effectively respond to
the impacts of the implementation of response measures and to loss and damage].
p.4. Article 3 (MITIGATION)
{Collective long-term goal}
1.
Option 1: Parties aim [to achieve the global temperature goal], in accordance with the best available science
[and the principles of the Convention], through [long-term global [low-[carbon][emission] transformation]
[[climate][carbon] neutrality]], [and the peaking of their [net] emissions] [by 2030][by 20XX][as soon as
possible], [with a [x]40–[y]70 per cent net emission reduction below the 2010 level by 2050][according to the
global carbon budget distribution based on climate justice], and [overall reductions][[net] zero emissions]
[over the course of the present century][by 2050][by 2100].4] 長期目標＋すべての国
Option 2: [Parties aim to reach a long-term global low-emission transformation in the context of sustainable
development and equitable access to atmospheric space [placeholder for further elaboration of the context,
including CBDR, comprehensiveness, distribution of global carbon budget based on climate justice and
etc.].]
Option 3: [In pursuit of the objective of the Convention as set out in its Article 2,][and][to achieve the
long-term temperature goal set out in Article 2,] Parties aim to reach [by X date] [as soon as possible] [a
peaking of global greenhouse gas emissions] [and rapid reductions of global greenhouse gas emissions
thereafter to at least] [40–70] [70–95] per cent below the 2010 level by 2050] [and zero net greenhouse gas
emissions in the period 2060–2080] [[bearing in mind that peaking will vary for different countries and will
be longer for developing countries] [[and] bearing in mind that social and economic development and
poverty eradication are the first and overriding priorities of developing country Parties]][[in pursuing [the
decarbonization of the global economy over the course of this century] [global low-carbon transformation]
[global low-emission transformation]] [in the sharing of the remaining global emission budget]].長期目標＋2
分論
２．２．5 年ごとのサイクルを持つ永続的な仕組み

4
現状は 2025 年と 2030 年目標が混在しているが、5 年ごとにレビューしていくことはほぼコンセンサス
There is a need to specify the context, whose placement is yet to be decided.
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第 10 回スクール・パリ
「パリの合意と決定のドラフト分析」
ＷＷF ジャパン小西雅子
2015 年 11 月 19 日

仮目標（indicative）に事前協議（つまり国際比較して目標を引き上げようとするプレッシャーがかかるや
り方）を入れるかについては意見が大きく分かれる

削減目標の書き込まれる場所（housing と呼ばれる）がどこになるかは、法的形式と関わるため、別途取り
上げている箇所がある
p.7. {Timing}
8.
(a) {First communication}: 最初の削減目標がどこに書き込まれて、いつ効力を発するか
Option 1: Each Party’s first NDMC/NDMCC is that listed in Annex [x] to the Agreement.5
Option 2: Each Party shall communicate its first NDMC/NDMCC no later than upon [ratification or
acceptance of] [joining] this Agreement.
Option 3: No provision on first communication in the Agreement [for decision text]
(b)
{Subsequent communications}
Option 1: {communication to five-year time period} 5年ごとの削減目標の提出
(i)
{Every five years, harmonized NDC}
Each Party shall [[communicate its [successive] [new]] [update its] NDMC/NDMCC by [year x]
[2020] [2021] and every five years thereafter on a [synchronized][common] basis, [or resubmit
an existing NDMC/NDMCC] [for the subsequent five-year time frame], taking into account the
outcomes of the global stocktake referred to in Article 10.
(ii)
{Submit INDC} 事前に提出する（事前協議の前提）
All Parties shall submit their [intended] [proposed] NDMC/NDMCC [12 [–18] months prior to]
[well before] [finalization [inscriptions]
(iii)
Finalize NDC 目標の最終化
[[with a view to [inscription in [Annex] x6][finalization] [at least three months prior to][well
before] the session of the CMA at which NDMC/NDMCC will be collectively updated]];
[placeholder for an option regarding an "indicative" or "intended" subsequent NDMC/NDMCC
for [five] years after the year of the submitted contribution.]
Option 2: {communication before the end of the period of implementation} 実施期間の終了前に提出
Successive NDMC/NDMCC [shall] [will] [other] be communicated by Parties after completion of the
current implementation cycle.
(c)
{Consultative period/ex ante} 事前協議
Option 1: [In the 12 [–18] month period referred to in paragraph x] [The CMA shall facilitate
[conduct]] [All Parties shall participate in] a [preparatory] process to [facilitate] [enhance] the clarity,
transparency and understanding of the [intended] [proposed] NDMC/NDMCC, including their
aggregate effect in the light of the long-term temperature goal referred to in Article 2, including
through the production of an aggregate synthesis report. The [preparatory] process shall be
conducted in accordance with the modalities and procedures to be adopted by the CMA at its first
session.
Option 2: No provision on consultative period/ex ante
事前協議なし
Option 3: Placement: Deal with this issue in Article 9
(d)
5
6
{Common time frame in future} 将来は共通のタイムフレーム
Some Parties would like to reflect the need for NDMC/NDMCC to be captured in an annex to the Agreement at COP 21. Links to housing
issue and Article 3, paragraph 2.
Housing issue dealt with separately.
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第 10 回スクール・パリ
「パリの合意と決定のドラフト分析」
ＷＷF ジャパン小西雅子
2015 年 11 月 19 日
Option 1: A common time frame for Parties’ NDMC/NDMCC from 2030 onward shall be decided by
the CMA at its first session
Option 2: No provision for common time frame なし
Option 3: Differentiated time frames for developed and developing countries to be decided by the
CMA at its first session 2分論差異化
(e)
{Adjustments at any time} 目標の深化を簡単に行えるように
Option 1: A Party may, at any time, submit an update to its NDMC/NDMCC that represents a
progression in ambition beyond its previous efforts [in accordance with the simplified adjustment
procedure referred to in Article X]
Option 2: The enhancement of the [[intended] nationally determined contribution][NDMC/NDMCC]
of developing country Parties is premised on the adequacy of finance, technology transfer and
capacity-building support from developed country Parties. A developing country Party may adjust its
[[intended] nationally determined contribution][NDMC/NDMCC] when severely affected by an
extreme natural event, force majeure, or when adequate finance, technology development and
transfer and capacity-building support are not available;
Option 3: No text on adjustment
2分論
なし
２．３．次期目標は必ず前の目標を上回ること（目標改善）Progression

科学的に整合した緩和行動をとるために肝となる論点。「次期目標は前の目標を上回らなければならない」
という明確な表現があるが、オプションとなっている

アメリカも（日本も？）明確な表現は望んでいない様子で、弱い表現ならば合意可能か

中国など LMDC は、先進国だけ改善義務などの差異化された表現ならば OK だが、全ての国を対象とした
ものは NG か。

差異化の議論とリンクしているため、また米中が同床異夢で同じ主張となり、双方の許せる範囲の合意とな
ってしまう可能性大。つまり「すべての国を対象として、各締約国の差異化された責任の観点から改善をあ
らわす」などのあいまいな表現となってしまうか？
p.3. Article 2bis (GENERAL
Option I:
1.
All Parties shall regularly prepare, communicate and implement [intended] nationally determined
contributions towards achieving the [purpose of this Agreement as set out in Article 2] [objective of the
Convention as set out in its Article 2], in accordance with Article 4 of the Convention.
2.
Each Party’s [intended] nationally determined contribution will represent a progression in the light of
Parties’ differentiated responsibilities and commitments under the Convention. 「すべての国を対象として、
各締約国の差異化された責任の観点から改善をあらわす」などのあいまいな表現
p.5. Article 3.4. {Progression}
「すべての国を対象として、目標は時間と共により野心的に改善されるべき」
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第 10 回スクール・パリ
「パリの合意と決定のドラフト分析」
ＷＷF ジャパン小西雅子
2015 年 11 月 19 日
4.
Each Party’s NDMC/NDMCC [shall][should][other] be progressively more ambitious over time. [The
progression of ambition of developing country Parties’ NDMC/NDMCC will be supported and enabled by
enhanced finance, technology development and transfer and capacity-building by developed country Parties
over time.]
p.4. Option 4: (paragraphs 3-3ter) {modulators to paragraph 2 of this Article}
3.
2分論に基づく改善
Option (a): Each Party that has previously [communicated] [implemented] absolute economy-wide
emissions reduction or limitation targets should continue to do so and all Parties should aim to do so over
time. {modality based differentiation option 1 + progression of modalities}削減目標の様式を差異化した差異
化
Option (b): Developed country Parties [and other Parties [in a position][that determine] to do so] should
take the lead in mitigation efforts, including by [communicating] [and implementing] absolute
economy-wide emissions reduction [or limitation] targets and all other Parties should aim to do so over time.
{developed countries taking the lead + modality based differentiation option 2}
[Parties may otherwise communicate quantified targets relative to business as usual, carbon intensity of
gross domestic product, or other reference point, or non-economy-wide actions.]
3bis. Option (a): Each Party’s NDMC/NDMCC [shall][should][other] reflect a progression beyond the Party’s
previous efforts and highest possible ambition {level of ambition + progression}
[in accordance with][taking into account] its common but differentiated responsibilities and respective
capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances {principle based differentiation}
Option (b): Each Party’s NDMC/NDMCC [shall][should][other] reflect the highest possible ambition [level
of ambition]
[in accordance with][taking into account] its common but differentiated responsibilities and respective
capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances {principle based differentiation}
7
3ter. Notwithstanding paragraphs 2 and 3 of this Article, Parties that are LDCs or SIDs may communicate their
NDMC/NDMCC at their discretion, including information on strategies, plans and actions for low
greenhouse gas emission development, reflecting their special circumstances. {applies to all options for
Differentiated efforts in this Article}
p.27. Article 19 (AMENDMENTS) 改正の項目にも、目標の改善規定がある。（HOUSINGと関連）
1.
2.
3.
The provisions of Article 15 of the Convention on the adoption of amendments to the Convention shall apply
mutatis mutandis to this Agreement.
[Notwithstanding paragraph 1 of this Article, a Party may propose an adjustment [[to] [enhance] the efforts
expressed by its [mitigation commitment] inscribed in] Annex [A or B] [or] [X] to this Agreement. A proposal
for such an adjustment shall be communicated to the Parties by the secretariat at least three months before
the session of the CMA at which it is proposed for adoption.] 目標の（改善）変更の提案
[An adjustment proposed by a Party [to enhance] the efforts expressed by its [mitigation commitment]
inscribed in Annex [A or B] [or] [X] to this Agreement shall be considered adopted by the CMA unless more
than three fourths of the Parties present and voting object to its adoption. The adopted adjustment shall be
communicated by the secretariat to the Depositary, who shall circulate it to all Parties, and it shall enter into
force on 1 January of the year following the communication by the Depositary. Such adjustments shall be
binding upon Parties.] 4分の3の締約国が反対しない限り、採択される
２．４．科学的整合性

目標案が全体として、科学的に長期目標達成と整合しているかチェック

かかれる目標が、条約の目標か、パリの合意にかかれる目標か

10 条だけではなく、個別の目標案の国際評価の際にも、科学的整合性をチェックするか（9 条透明性にも出
てくる）
7
This provision may apply to other parts of this Article, in particular features and housing.
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2015 年 11 月 19 日
p.23. Article 10 (GLOBAL STOCKTAKE) 目標全体が究極目標にかなっているか
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
The CMA shall periodically take stock of the implementation of this Agreement [in accordance with Article
4, paragraph 2(d), Article 7, paragraph 2(e), and Article 10, paragraph 2(a), of the Convention,] to assess
[overall] [aggregate][collective] progress towards achieving the [[ultimate] [objective of the] Convention]
[the long-term goal established in this Agreement] [and] the purpose of this Agreement in a comprehensive
and facilitative manner, [including identifying means of further advancing such objectives within this
Agreement] [and to inform the process referred to in Article 3, paragraph 8, and Article 4, paragraph
6][Article 6]. これが具体的な長期目標と整合するか
The stocktaking shall consider [overall] [aggregate][collective] implementation in relation to mitigation,
adaptation and the means of implementation, taking into account the different specificities of each issue
[and] [Parties’ differentiated responsibilities and commitments][different national circumstances] [and
equity].差異化
The stocktaking shall consider information from, inter alia, [the mechanisms of the Convention and this
Agreement], [information on the implementation of individual and collective efforts under the Agreement],
including [on assessments of the aggregate level of ambition communicated through the proposed
nationally determined contributions for the subsequent commitment period in relation to the level of
ambition needed as recommended by the best available science]; the best available science, [including
reports of the IPCC]; and information from other relevant international processes [other information
decided by the CMA].次期目標の科学的整合性もチェック（＝サイクル）
The CMA shall undertake its first global stocktake in [2023][2024] [after the review of accelerating
pre-2020 implementation and the review of the adequacy of post-2020 finance support by developed country
Parties,] and [every five years thereafter] [at regular intervals to be decided by the CMA.]
[The extent to which developing country Parties can participate in the global stocktake will depend on the
provision of financial resources.] 時期を決めておく（＝サイクル）
２．５．遵守確保
2.5.1. Compliance (11 条)

遵守の項目があるかないかは、条約の法的拘束力を強める大きな要素（ただしないからと言って法的拘束力
がなくなるわけではない）

国際法では、約束を履行しなくとも罰するのは実際には非常に困難（例：京都議定書の際にカナダが抜けた）

遵守の執行機関を設立して、遵守メカニズムを実施するという案もあるが、ここにも 2 分論

伝統的に、日本は遵守メカニズムに否定的。Non-punitive, non-adversarial (非懲罰的、非敵対的)、
facilitative(促進的)を一貫して主張

米は、そもそも目標の達成することに法的拘束力は持たさないことを主張（アンブレラ、中印など）、その
目標の達成を遵守しているかを見るメカニズムが入ることは否定的、まったくないというオプション（７．
Optionlll）もあり
p.23. Article 11 (FACILITATING IMPLEMENTATION AND COMPLIANCE)
Option I: (paragraphs 1 to 7)
{Establishment}
1.
[A] [Implementation] [and] [Compliance] [mechanism][process][Committee] [, including a Committee [as a
standing subsidiary body under the CMA]][compliance mechanism for developed country Parties and a
facilitative mechanism for developing country Parties [applicable to all Parties] is hereby established.
{Objective and scope}
2.
The objective of the [mechanism][process][Committee] referred to in paragraph 1 of this Article is to:
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2015 年 11 月 19 日
Option 1: [Promote and] facilitate [and incentivize][effective] implementation of [and promote [and enforce]
compliance with] [the [applicable] provisions of] [commitments under] [Articles [3] [, 4, 6, 7, 8] and [9] of]
this Agreement [and to assess and address questions of implementation arising from each Party’s
performance in accordance with those provisions]
Option 2: Promote compliance by developed country Parties and to facilitate implementation by developing
country Parties through provision of adequate financial resources and transfer of technology
Option 3: Address cases of non-compliance by developed country Parties, including through the
development of an indicative list of consequences, taking into account the cause, type, degree and frequency
of non-compliance and facilitate implementation by developing country Parties
{Nature}
3.
Option 1: The [Committee][mechanism][process][, including the Committee,] shall be [expert-based,]
[facilitative] [in nature] [and shall act in a manner that is transparent], [non-punitive], [non-adversarial] and
[non-judicial]. [It shall pay particular attention to the respective national capabilities and circumstances of
Parties.]
Option 2: For developing country Parties, the nature should be facilitative, non-punitive, non-adversarial
and non-judicial.
{Structure}
4.
It [shall function through a plenary and] shall consist of [two separate [branches][forums][mechanisms]] [:]
Option 1: [X] members serving in their individual capacity, nominated by Parties and elected by the CMA,
with due consideration for equitable geographical representation based on the five regional groups of the
United Nations, ensuring the representation of SIDS. The members shall be elected at the first session of
the CMA.
The Committee shall make every effort to adopt its decisions by consensus. If all efforts to reach consensus
have been exhausted and no consensus is reached, the decisions shall, as a last resort, be adopted by a [X]
majority vote of the members present and voting, based on a quorum of two thirds of the members.
Option 2:
(a)
An enforcement branch for developed country Parties and a facilitative branch for developing country
Parties. The Compliance Mechanism may establish technical panels to assist those branches in their tasks;
(b)
The role of the enforcement branch is to review compliance with commitments made by developed country
Parties and [the role of the facilitative branch is to facilitate the implementation by developing country Parties of
enhanced action on mitigation, adaptation, and transparency of action in a facilitative, non-punitive and
non-adversarial way] [developing country Parties that have made economy-wide quantified emission reduction
commitments with respect to their commitments on mitigation and support as established under this Agreement];
(c)
The enforcement branch may recommend actions that a developed country Party should take to ensure it
fulfills its commitments under this Agreement;
(d)
The role of the facilitative branch is to review the implementation of the nationally determined mitigation
commitments made by developing country Parties and to assist them in finding ways to incentivize their efforts to
meet these commitments.
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Option 3: A compliance branch and an implementation branch [, each with equitable and balanced
representation of Parties]. Members of the Committee shall have competence in a field relevant to this
Agreement and shall collectively reflect an appropriate balance of expertise.
Option 4: A compliance mechanism to address cases of non-compliance with the commitments of developed
county Parties on mitigation, adaptation, provision of finance, technology development and transfer,
capacity-building, and transparency of action and support;
A facilitative mechanism to facilitate implementation by developing country Parties for enhanced action on
mitigation, adaptation and transparency of action.
{Triggers}
5.
Option 1: The Committee may consider issues on the basis of:
(a)
Written submissions from any Party [or group of Parties] with respect to [itself][its own or other Parties’
compliance with or implementation of the provisions of the Agreement];
(b)
Reports [by Parties in accordance with Article X of this Agreement][ and questions of implementation
arising from the transparency and accountability system under Article [9]][reports from Technical Expert
(Review) teams];
(c)
Information derived from Annex [X] with regard to a situation where a Party fails to communicate and
inscribe its NDMC[;
(d)
Requests from the CMA].
Option 2: No text on triggers
{Consequences}
6.
Option 1:Where it has determined that a Party is not in compliance, [the Compliance Branch] shall apply
the following consequences, taking into account the cause, type, degree and frequency of the non-compliance of
that Party and paying attention to its national capabilities and circumstances as appropriate:
(a)
Declaration of non-compliance;
(b)
Request for the development of a compliance action plan.
Option 2: The measures to be adopted by the CMA shall range from offering advice and assistance to the
issuance of a statement of concern][to [be applied or actions to be taken to] [facilitate implementation][and
[address cases of non-compliance][promote compliance]].
Option 3: No text on consequences
{Relationship to the CMA}
7.
[The Compliance Mechanism shall report annually to the CMA and shall operate under modalities and
procedures agreed by the CMA at its first session] [The [process][mechanism][Committee] [, including the
Committee] shall be under the authority of and report annually to the CMA]. [It shall elaborate its rules of
procedure, which shall be subject to approval by the second session of the CMA.]
Option II:
An International Tribunal of Climate Justice is hereby established to address cases of non-compliance with
the commitments of developed country Parties on mitigation, adaptation, provision of finance, technology
development and transfer, capacity -building, and transparency of action and support, including through
the development of an indicative list of consequences, taking into account the cause, type, degree and
frequency of non-compliance.
Option III:
No reference to facilitating implementation and compliance (no Article 11)
全く遵守なし
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2015 年 11 月 19 日
2.5.2. transparency (9 条)

カンクン合意（2020 年までの自主合意）で実施されている MRV（Measurable, Reportable, Verifiable）を
強化する。MRV とは、測定・報告・検証のこと。IPCC のガイドラインに沿って、同じ基準で温室効果ガ
スを測定し、その測定結果と目標に向かっての温暖化対策の実施状況を UNFCCC に報告、報告された内容
は国際的に検証されることになっている。

これは技術的な仕組みという面だけではなく、国際的に恥ずかしくない目標を引き出す効果と、遵守の役割
を担っている。つまり各国の目標が、同じ測定手法で公表されると、国際的に比較可能になるため、各国の
努力の程度が国際的にさらされることになり、各国が努力したと言えるだけの目標を出そうというインセン
ティブを高める。さらに国際的に検証が入ることによって、その国が掲げた目標を達成していく途上にある
かどうかを報告するプレッシャーにさらされることにより、目標達成（つまり遵守）を高める仕組みとして
機能することが期待されている。
「計測・報告・検証可能な」
（Measurable, Reportable, Verifiable: MRV）
②
測定・報告の部分を成す隔年報告書と国連に提出
②国別報告書及び隔年報告書を検証するため、先進国については国際評価・レビュー（International
Assessment and Review:IAR）プロセス、途上国については国際協議・分析（International Consultations
and Analysis: ICA）プロセスがある。
③先進国向けの IAR には、2 つの段階があり、第 1 段階は、各先進国の報告の技術レビュー、第 2 段階が、
UNFCCC 会合の際に開催される各先進国の目標達成に向けた進捗状況の多国間評価（MA）

そのためには、透明性の確保が重要。ここにも①2 分論と全体対象論の対立。②サポートにも透明性確保を
主張する途上国と強く否定する先進国との対立、③既存の仕組みとの関係をどうするか、④（国内で決める）
目標という、
「自主的な」の意味、⑤MRV にも柔軟性を持たせる（つまり徐々に先進国レベルに引き上げる）

para.5. レビューのやり方：どのように遵守に関する事項を扱うか
p.21. Option 1: (paragraph 5)
5.
The information provided by each Party shall be subjected to at least biennially an international technical
expert review. The review process shall provide a thorough, objective and comprehensive technical
assessment of the implementation by a Party of the requirements of the Agreement. The international
technical expert review shall be carried out by an expert review team following guidance adopted by the
CMA at its first session.
The expert review team shall produce a report on the results of the technical expert review, which shall be
communicated to the CMA. The expert review team shall consult the Party concerned on the report prior to
its communication to the CMA. The report shall analyse the extent to which the Party is on track to achieve
its obligations under this Agreement, as well as the extent to which the Party’s reporting is in line with the
guidelines referred to in paragraph 6 of this Article.
The report shall identify any issues related to compliance.
Option 2: (paragraph 5)
5.
The information required under this Article shall be subject to a technical expert review in accordance with
common guidelines and procedures adopted by the CMA. The review will consider the consistency of the
information with the guidelines adopted by the CMA, the Party’s implementation and achievement of its
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nationally determined mitigation [commitment][contribution], and identify any areas for improvement in
reporting. For Parties with least capacity, the expert review may also identify capacity-building needs. The
technical expert review shall be carried out by an expert review team. The expert review team shall produce
a report for publication by the secretariat and consideration by the CMA.
Each Party shall undergo a multilateral and facilitative examination of the implementation of its
[nationally determined mitigation] [contribution][commitment][other].
Option 3: (paragraphs 5 and 5bis) 2分論
5.
Building on the existing measurement, reporting and verification arrangements under the Convention:
(a)
Developed country Parties shall report information related to their actions and provision of support
to developing countries in accordance with the provisions of the Convention and relevant decisions of
the COP mutatis mutandis under the Agreement, in their national communications, biennial reports
and annual inventory reports. All of that information will be verified through a robust technical
review process followed by a multilateral assessment process, and result in a conclusion with
consequences for compliance;
(b)
Developing country Parties should report information on their actions and support received
according to the Convention and relevant decisions of the COP, inter alia procedures set up under
decisions 1/CP.16 and 2/CP.17 mutatis mutandis, and the level of support received from developed
country Parties.
5bis. Developed country Parties and other developed Parties included in Annex II to the Convention shall ensure
the transparency of support by: サポートの透明性
(a)
Providing clear information in national communications and biennial reports;
(b)
Providing a clear road map with individual annual commitments for public funding, technology
transfer and capacity-building support in the post-2020 period;
Drawing on the work mandated to the Standing Committee on Finance by the COP to assist the COP
in exercising its functions with respect to the measurement, reporting and verification of support
provided to developing country Parties;
Drawing on the work of the SBSTA on methodologies for the reporting of financial information.
(c)
(d)

透明性確保の 9 条は、レビューも扱うので、重要なサイクルの議論も入っている。Ex. 目標後退はしないこ
と、

パリの合意では、目標を定める過程で、カンクン合意
を上回った仕組み（目標を定める過程で、各国が事前
に目標草案を国連に提出し、半年ほどかかって事前に
協議を経てから、パリの合意で最終決定されようとす
る仕組み：Ex-ante clarification process (事前協議)）
が定められようとしたが、COP20 リマ会議で反対に
会い、正式には立ち上がらなかった。しかし目標案は
時期の早遅はあったが事前に提出され、非公式に国際
比較はなされた。パリの合意でこの仕組みが入る余地
が残る書き方になるかどうかもポイントの一つ
p.8 para 8 (c)参照
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2015 年 11 月 19 日
参考①：京都議定書第 18 条（遵守）
京都議定書の第 1 回締約国会合（COP/MOP1）で、議定書に定められている条項の不遵守を認定し、
その原因、種類、程度及び頻度を考慮しつつ不遵守に対する効果的な対処手続きを施す制度を承認し
なければならない。また、拘束力のある措置を課する場合、議定書を改正しなければならない。
削減目標の不遵守の措置
・達成できなかった削減量の 1.3 倍を次の約束期間で削減する
・遵守行動計画の作成
・排出量取引でクレジットを売る資格を失う
参考②：京都議定書第 3 条
3.1
The Parties included in Annex 1 shall, individually or jointly, ensure that their aggregate
anthropogenic carbon dioxide equivalent emissions of the greenhouse gases listed in Annex
A do not exceed their assigned amounts, calculated pursuant to their quantified emission
limitation and reduction commitments inscribed in Annex B and in accordance with the
provisions of this Article, with a view to reducing their overall emissions of such gases by
at least 5 per cent below 1990 levels in the commitment period of 2008 to 2012.
参考③：国の差異化についての変遷
（differentiation）
第 1 フェーズ
1992 年
気候変動枠組条約
1997 年
アメリカ議会「バードヘーゲル決議」
（途上国抜きの合意に反対）
1997 年
京都議定書
共通だが差異ある責任原則
CBDR RC
附属書 1 国対非附属書 1 国の防火壁
Annex 1 :
Non Annex 1
（OECD に加盟している国）
＊
国の差異化は、附属書 1 国/非附属書 1 国の固定化（削減目標は国際交渉の中での決定）
第 2 フェーズ
2005 年
“長期対話”が立ち上がる
2007 年
バリ行動計画で、長期対話が、正式な交渉の行われる特別作業部会に格上げ
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2015 年 11 月 19 日
ただし、途上国の強い抵抗で、京都議定書締約国とその他の国の二つの議論
の場に分かれたまま
CBDR RC に基づくが、途上国も削減行動を公約することを前提とした議論の場
附属書 1 国対非附属書 1 国の防火壁
Annex 1 : Non Annex 1
Developed Countries : Developing Countries
2009 年
コペンハーゲン合意
2010 年
カンクン合意
途上国も含めて削減目標/行動を国際的に宣誓
コペンハーゲン合意の削減目標/行動を宣誓を正式合意
京都議定書第 2 約束期間
CBDR RC に基づき、先進国からの資金・技術援助の下という条件下ではあるが、
途上国も国際合意の中で自主目標を宣誓
京都議定書 Annex 1 : Non Annex 1
カンクン合意
＊
Developed Countries : Developing Countries
国の差異化は、先進国は経済全体の絶対量での削減目標、途上国は自主的に提出する目標の形で、自己差
異化する手法 (self differentiation への萌芽)
第３フェーズ
2011 年
ダーバン合意
2020 年以降の枠組みはすべての国を対象とすることを決定
今まで先進国と途上国に分かれていた議論の場も ADP に統一
CBDR RC の精神に基づき、先進国と途上国の削減目標を一緒に議論、いかに差異化するかが焦点
先進国・途上国に関わりなく、
「できる国は」という言葉が頻繁に表れるようになった
Annex 1 : Non Annex 1
Developed Countries : Developing Countries
to develop a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention
applicable to all Parties
Annex Ⅱ/Developed/Developing/Annex 1/Non Annex 1 countries, in a position to do so
2014～2015 年
パリで合意する新枠組み
Draft Decision Text, Elements に、既存の言葉を使わない差異化が登場
本文からは、附属書 1 国 1/非附属書 1 国という言葉が消えつつある
Para 10: CBDR RC, in the light of evolving circumstances.
Para 11: Parties with greatest responsibility and those with sufficient capability
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2015 年 11 月 19 日
＊
国の差異化は、固定化した先進国/途上国型（Annex 1/Non Annex1）と、
自己差異化型(self differentiation)との両極の間で揺れている
その間をとって、何らかの新しいやり方で国をグループ分けしてガイダンスを出す型が可能か？
注目・ブラジル提案 Concentric approach、その他南アフリカ、ボリビア
附属書 1 国/非附属書 1 国型から脱して、変化する開発程度に合わせて、責任と能力がある国は、相応の行動を
期待していく
18

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