ࣥ ࣇ ࣞ ࣊ ࢵ ࢪ ᭷ຠ࡞ኳ↛㈨※ᰴ ⡿ᅜ࡛ࡣ㉸ప㔠ࡢ㈨㔠ࡀ₶ἑ౪⤥ࡉࢀࡿ௦ࡀ⤊ࢃࡾࢆ࿌ࡆࡘࡘ࠶ࡿࡼ࠺࡛ࡍࠋ㐃㑥 ‽ഛไᗘ⌮㸦FRB㸧ࡣ㔞ⓗ⦆㸦QE㸧ࣉࣟࢢ࣒ࣛࡢ⦰ᑠ╔ᡭࡋࠊ㐣ཤ 3 ᅇࡢ㐃㑥 බ㛤ᕷሙጤဨ㸦FOMC)࡛ 100 ൨ࢻࣝࡎࡘമๆ㈙࠸ධࢀ㢠ࢆ๐ῶࡋࡲࡋࡓࠋ⌧ᅾࡢ࣮࣌ ࢫ࡛ QE ࡢ⦰ᑠࡀ⥆ࡅࡤࢃࡎᩘࣨ᭶ᚋࡣ㈙࠸ධࢀ㢠ࡀࢮࣟ࡞ࡾࠊᕷሙ㛵ಀ⪅ࡢ㛫࡛ ࡣ 2015 ᖺࣇ࢙ࢹࣛࣝࣇࣥࢻ㸦FF)㔠ࡀᘬࡁୖࡆࡽࢀࡿࡢぢ᪉ࡍࡽฟ࡚࠸ࡲࡍࠋ ࡇ࠺ࡋࡓࡇࡣࠊ㔠ࡀᖺኟᗏࢆᡴࡗࡓ࠸࠺ᙜ♫ࡢぢ᪉ࢆࡅ࡚࠾ࡾࠊࢢࣛࣇ 1 ࡀ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡼ࠺ࠊᢞ㈨ᐙࡣィ⏬ࡑࡗ࡚⾜ࢃࢀࡿ QE ⦰ᑠᑐᛂࡋࡲࡋࡓࠋ㛗ᖺཬࡪ QE ࡼࡾࠊከࡃࡢᢞ㈨ᐙࡣ୰ኸ㖟⾜ࡢ⾜ືࡘ࠸࡚Ᏻᚰឤࢆᢪ࠸࡚ࡁࡲࡋࡓࡀࠊ࢚ࣞ ࣥ FRB ㆟㛗ࡢࢥ࣓ࣥࢺࡣࠊ1 ᖺ௨ෆ㔠ࡀᘬࡁୖࡆࡽࢀࡿྍ⬟ᛶࢆ♧၀ࡋ࡚࠸ࡲࡍࠋ QE ࡀᬒẼ่⃭ຠᯝࢆࡶࡓࡽࡍᒁ㠃ࡽ㐣ὶືᛶࡢฟࡘ࡞ࡀࡿᒁ㠃⛣⾜ࡍࡿ୰ࠊ ࡇࢀࡽࡢࢥ࣓ࣥࢺࡣ㏆࠸࠺ࡕࣥࣇࣞࡀ฿᮶ࡍࡿࡢᠱᛕࢆ↽ࡗ࡚࠸ࡲࡍࠋ 㔠ࡀୖ᪼ࡍࢀࡤ⡿ࢻࣝࡶୖ᪼ྥ࠺ྍ⬟ᛶࡀ࠶ࡾࠊࡑࢀࡣᐇ㉁ⓗࣥࣇࣞᅽຊࢆ ୡ⏺㍺ฟࡍࡿࡇࢆពࡋࡲࡍࠋከࡃࡢࣔࣀࡸࢧ࣮ࣅࢫྠᵝࠊୡ⏺ࡢࢥࣔࢹࢸࡣ ༙ࡀ౫↛ࡋ࡚⡿ࢻࣝᘓ࡚࡛ྲྀᘬࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡲࡍࠋ⡿ᅜࡢẚ㍑ⓗ᫂ࡿ࠸⤒῭ぢ㏻ࡋࡀ⡿㔠 ࢆᛴ㏿ᢲࡋୖࡆࢀࡤࠊ⡿ࢻࣝࡣࡢせ㏻㈌ᑐࡋ࡚ୖ᪼ࡋࠊࣥࣇࣞᅽຊࢆቑࡉࡏ ࡿࡇ࡞ࡿ࡛ࡋࡻ࠺ࠋ ኳ ↛㈨※ᰴࡣᰴᘧࡢࣜࢫࢡࣉ࣑࣒ࣞࡀ⧊ࡾ㎸ ࡲࢀ࡚࠾ࡾࠊࡍ࡚ࡢࣜࢫࢡࢧࢡࣝΏࡗ࡚ࢥࣔ ࢹࢸࢆ࢘ࢺࣃࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࡍࡿࡇࡀ࡛ࡁࡲࡍ ࡑࡢ⌮⏤ࡣࢥࣔࢹࢸࡢᣢࡘᛶ᱁࠶ࡾࡲࡍࠋࢥࣔࢹ ࢸࡣ᭱⤊ⓗ᪂ࡓ࡞ᢞ㈨ࣜࢱ࣮ࣥࢆᚓࡿᶵࡀ࡞ࡃ࡞ࡿ ୖࠊ➇தୖࡢඃᛶࡣᏑᅾࡋ࡞࠸ࡓࡵࠊᮇᚅࣜࢱ࣮ࣥࡣࢮ ࡇ࠺ࡋࡓᅗᘧࡣ⤒ᖖ㉥Ꮠࢆᢪ࠼ࡓᅜࠎ᭱ࡶᙜ࡚ࡣࡲࡿぢ ࣟ࡞ࡾࡲࡍࠋࡑࢀᑐࡋࠊᴗࡣ⤒Ⴀ⪅ࡀ┈ࢆᣑࡍ ㎸ࡳ࡛ࠊ㐣ཤ 1 ᖺ㛫᪂⯆ᅜࡢᰴᘧᕷሙࡀࡾᾎࡧࡏࡽࢀ ࡿࡓࡵ㈨ᮏࢥࢫࢺ௨ୖᢞ㈨࡛ࡁࡿࡇࡽᮇᚅࣜࢱ࣮ࣥ ࡓࡢࡶࡑࢀࡀࡁ࡞ཎᅉࡉࢀ࡚ࡁࡲࡋࡓࠋ ࡀࣉࣛࢫ࡞ࡾࠊࡑࢀࡀᰴᘧࡢࣜࢫࢡࣉ࣑࣒ࣞࡋ࡚ᖜ ពእ࡞ࡇ࡛ࡣ࠶ࡾࡲࡏࢇࡀࠊᢞ㈨ᐙࡣࣥࣇࣞࣜࢫࢡ ᗈࡃ౯᱁ᫎࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡲࡍࠋ ᑐࡋ࡚࣏࣮ࢺࣇ࢛ࣜ࢜ࢆ࣊ࢵࢪࡍࡿᡭẁࢆồࡵ࡚࠸ࡲࡍࠋ ࢢࣛࣇ 3 ♧ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࡼ࠺ࠊCRB ᣦᩘࡢ 3 ᖺ⛣ືᖹᆒ ࡑࡢࡓࡵ┿ࡗඛ⏝࠸ࡽࢀࡿᆺⓗ࡞ࢶ࣮ࣝࡀࢥࣔࢹ ࣜࢱ࣮ࣥࡣ㐣ཤ 40 ᖺΏࡾࣥࣇࣞ⋡ࢆᣳࢇ࡛ࡁࡃኚື ࢸ࡛ࡍࠋከࡃࡢᢞ㈨ᐙࡣࠊࣥࣇࣞ⋡ࡀ㧗࠸ᮇࡣཎ ࡋ࡚࠸ࡲࡍࠋࡑࢀࡣᑐ↷ⓗࠊኳ↛㈨※ᰴࡣᰴᘧࡢࣜ Ἔࡸ㔠࠸ࡗࡓᐇ≀㈨⏘ࡀᰴᘧࡸമๆ࡞ఏ⤫ⓗ࡞᭷౯ド ࢫࢡࣉ࣑࣒ࣞࡀ⧊ࡾ㎸ࡲࢀ࡚࠾ࡾࠊࡍ࡚ࡢࣜࢫࢡࢧ ๆࢆ࢘ࢺࣃࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࡍࡿಙࡌ࡚࠸ࡲࡍࠋࡋࡋ࡞ࡀࡽࠊ ࢡࣝΏࡗ࡚ࢥࣔࢹࢸࢆ࢘ࢺࣃࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࡍࡿࡇࡀ ࢢࣛࣇ 2 ࡀ♧ࡍࡼ࠺ࠊᚲࡎࡋࡶࡑ࠺࡞ࡿࡣ㝈ࡾࡲࡏࢇࠋ ࡛ࡁࡲࡍࠋࢢࣛࣇ࡛ࡣࠊࢥࣔࢹࢸࡀ⡿ᅜࡢࣥࣇࣞ⋡ ┦ᑐⓗ࡞ࣃࣇ࢛࣮࣐ࣥࢫࡣࠊࢥࣔࢹࢸࡼࡾࡶኳ↛㈨※ ᐦ᥋㐃ືࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡼ࠺ࡣぢ࠼ࡎࠊࢥࣔࢹࢸࡢࣜ ᰴࡢ᪉ࡀࣥࣇࣞ࣊ࢵࢪᡭẁࡋ࡚ඃࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࡇࢆ♧ࡋ ࢱ࣮ࣥࣥࣇࣞ⋡ࡢ㛫┤᥋ⓗ࡞┦㛵㛵ಀࡀ࠶ࡿᐃ ࡚࠸ࡲࡍࠋ ࡍࡿࡇࡣ࡛ࡁࡲࡏࢇࠋ ࢥࣔࢹࢸᰴᘧࡢ┦㛵㛵ಀࡀప࠸ࡇࡣࠊ⌮ㄽⓗࡣ ࣏࣮ࢺࣇ࢛ࣜ࢜ࢆศᩓࡍࡿᡭẁࡋ࡚ࢥࣔࢹࢸᢞ㈨ࡀ ࡇࡢࢢࣛࣇࡣࠊS&P500 ᣦᩘࠊኳ↛㈨※ᰴࠊࢥࣔࢹࢸ㸦ࢺ ⌮㐺ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࡇࢆពࡋࡲࡍࠋࡋࡋࠊᰴ౯ࡢୖ᪼ࡀ ࣒ࢯ࣭ࣥࣟࢱ࣮/ࢪ࢙ࣇ࢙࣮ࣜࢬ CRB ᣦᩘ㸧ࡀᵝࠎ࡞ࣥ ⥆࠸ࡓሙྜࠊࡑ࠺ࡋࡓᢞ㈨ࡢศᩓࡣࣜࢱ࣮ࣥࢆࡁࡃᦆ࡞ ࣇࣞ⎔ቃୗ࡛ࡢ⛬ᗘࡢࣃࣇ࢛࣮࣐ࣥࢫࢆୖࡆࡓࢆ♧ࡋ ࠺せᅉ࡞ࡾࡡࡲࡏࢇࠋࢢࣛࣇ 4 ࡛ࡣࠊⰍࡢࡘ࠸ࡓ⥺ࡀ ࡚࠸ࡲࡍࠋࣥࣇࣞ⋡ࡀపỈ‽࠶ࡿ࠸ࡣ✜ࡸ࡞Ỉ‽࠶ࡿ ᰴ౯ୖ᪼ᒁ㠃࠾ࡅࡿ S&P500 ᣦᩘ CRB ᣦᩘࡢࣃࣇ࢛ ሙ㠃࡛ࡣࠊ᫂ࡽᰴᘧࡀඃࢀࡓࣃࣇ࢛࣮࣐ࣥࢫࢆ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ ࣮࣐ࣥࢫࢆ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡲࡍࠋࡑࢀࢆぢࡿࠊ1965 ᖺࢹ࣮ࢱ ࡲࡍࠋࡋࡋࠊࣥࣇࣞ⋡ࡀୖ᪼ྥ࠸ጞࡵࡿࡢక࠸ࠊ 㞟ࢆ㛤ጞࡋ࡚௨᮶ࠊ༙ࡢᮇ࡛ࢥࣔࢹࢸࡀࣥࢲ ኳ↛㈨※ᰴࡀᰴᘧᕷሙయࡢࣃࣇ࢛࣮࣐ࣥࢫ㏣࠸ࡘࡁࠊ࠸ ࣮ࣃࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡇࡀศࡾࡲࡍࠋࢥࣔࢹࢸࡀ ࡎࢀࡣᕷሙయࢆ㏣࠸ᢤࡃࡇ࡞ࡾࡲࡍࠋ୍᪉ࠊࢥࣔࢹ ᰴᘧ୪ࡳࡢࣃࣇ࢛࣮࣐ࣥࢫࢆୖࡆࡓᮇࡣ 2 ᗘࡔࡅ࡛ࠊࡑ ࢸࡢࣃࣇ࢛࣮࣐ࣥࢫࡣ࠸࡞ࡿࣥࣇࣞ⎔ቃୗ࠾࠸࡚ ࡢ୍ࡘࡣୡ⏺ⓗ࡞▼Ἔ༴ᶵ࡛ࢧࣉࣛࢩࣙࢵࢡࡀ㉳ࡁࡓ ࡶᰴᘧᕷሙయࠊኳ↛㈨※ᰴࡢࡕࡽࡶᒆࡎࠊࣥࣇࣞ 1972-78 ᖺࠊࡶ࠺୍ࡘࡀ୰ᅜࡢዲᬒẼ࡛ࢥࣔࢹࢸ㟂せ ⋡ࡀ㠀ᖖ㧗࠸ሙ㠃࡛ S&P500 ᣦᩘࢆ࢘ࢺࣃࣇ࢛࣮࣒ࡍ ࡀᛴ⃭㧗ࡲࡗࡓ 1999-2002 ᖺ࡛ࡍࠋࡑࡢࡕࡽࡶࠊࢥࣔ ࢹࢸࡢ㟂⤥ࣂࣛࣥࢫࡀⓗኚࡋࡓእⓗ࡞ࢣ࣮ࢫ ࡿ㐣ࡂࡲࡏࢇࠋ ࡛ࡋࡓࠋ ᢞ㈨ࡢศᩓࡣ༙ࡢᢞ㈨ᐙࡗ࡚࣏࣮ࢺࣇ࢛ࣜ࢜ᵓ⠏ ࡑࢀᑐࡋࠊᰴᘧࡣࢢࣛࣇ࡛ࢥࣔࢹࢸࡢୖࠊࡑࡋ࡚ྑ ࣉࣟࢭࢫ࠾ࡅࡿࡁ࡞┠ⓗ࡛ࡍࡀࠊࢥࣔࢹࢸࡀࡑࢀ ⨨ࡋ࡚࠾ࡾࠊࣜࢫࢡࡀ㧗࠸ࡶࡢࡢணࡉࢀࡿࣜࢱ࣮ࣥࡶ ࢆ㐩ᡂࡍࡿୖ࡛᭱ၿࡢࢶ࣮࡛ࣝ࠶ࡿࡣ⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡲࡏࢇࠋ ࡁ࠸ࡇࢆ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡲࡍࠋ ணࡉࢀࡿࣜࢱ࣮ࣥࣜࢫࢡᇶ࡙ࡃ᭱㐺࡞ᢞ㈨ᶵࢆ ♧ࡍຠ⋡ⓗࣇࣟࣥࢸ࠸࠺ᴫᛕࢆ⪃࠼࡚ࡳ࡚ࡃࡔࡉ ᬒẼࡀᣑࡋࠊ㔠ࡀୖ᪼ࡍࡿࡢక࠸ࠊ㈼᫂࡞ᢞ㈨ᐙࡣ ࠸ࠋࢢࣛࣇ 5 ♧ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࡼ࠺ࠊࢥࣔࢹࢸᕷሙࡢ ࣥࣇࣞࡢ฿᮶ഛ࠼ࡓ࣏࣮ࢺࣇ࢛ࣜ࢜ࢆᵓ⠏ࡋࡼ࠺ࡍࡿ ືࡁࢆ⾲ࡍ CRB ᣦᩘࡣຠ⋡ⓗࣇࣟࣥࢸࡽࡅ㞳ࢀ ࡛ࡋࡻ࠺ࠋ≉ࢥࣔࢹࢸẚࡓሙྜኳ↛㈨※ᰴࡀṔ ࡚࠾ࡾࠊࢥࣔࢹࢸࡽࡣࣜࢫࢡぢྜ࠺༑ศ࡞ࣜࢱ࣮ ྐⓗඃࢀࡓ┦ᑐࣃࣇ࢛࣮࣐ࣥࢫࢆୖࡆࠊࣜࢫࢡ࣭ࣜࢱ࣮ࣥ ࣥࡀᥦ౪ࡉࢀ࡞࠸ࡇࢆ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡲࡍࠋ ࡢࣂࣛࣥࢫࡀ㨩ຊⓗ࡛࠶ࡿࡇࢆ⪃࠼ࢀࡤࠊᢞ㈨ᐙࡣ࣊ࢵࢪ ᧄᖱႎឭଏ⾗ᢱߪޔBNY ࡔࡠࡦࠣ࡞ࡊ㧔BNY ࡔࡠࡦࠍᦨ⚳ⷫળ␠ߣߔࠆ ࠣ࡞ࡊߩ✚⒓ߢߔ㧕ߩ⾗↥ㆇ↪ળ␠߇ឭଏߔࠆᖱႎߦߟߡޔBNY ࡔࡠࡦ ࠕ࠶࠻ࡑࡀࠫࡔࡦ࠻ࠫࡖࡄࡦᩣᑼળ␠߇ክᩏߩޔឝタߒߚ߽ߩߢߔޕ ᒰ⾗ᢱߪᖱႎߩឭଏࠍ⋡⊛ߣߒߚ߽ߩߢޔ൘⺃ࠍ⋡⊛ߣߒߚ߽ߩߢߪࠅ߹ߖ ࠎޕᒰ⾗ᢱߪା㗬ߢ߈ࠆߣᕁࠊࠇࠆᖱႎߦၮߠ߈ᚑߐࠇߡ߹ߔ߇ߩߘޔᱜ ⏕ᕈޔቢోᕈࠍ⸽ߔࠆ߽ߩߢߪࠅ߹ߖࠎߚࠇߐ␜ߦߎߎޕᗧߥߤߪޔ ᚑᤨὐߢߩ⸃ߢࠅޔ೨ߩㅪ⛊ήߒߦᄌᦝߐࠇࠆ߽ࠅ߹ߔޕ BNY ࡔࡠࡦࠕ࠶࠻ࡑࡀࠫࡔࡦ࠻ࠫࡖࡄࡦᩣᑼળ␠ BNY Mellon Asset Management Japan Limited ㊄Ⲣຠขᒁᬺ⠪㧦㑐᧲⽷ോዪ㐳㧔㊄㧕╙ 406 ภ ާടදળި৻⥸␠࿅ᴺੱ ᛩ⾗ା⸤දળ ৻⥸␠࿅ᴺੱ ᣣᧄᛩ⾗㘈ᬺදળ
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