Screening Barriers and Actions for Policies Based on - LCS-RNet

AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment) project team
N ti
National
l IInstitute
tit t ffor Environmental
E i
t l St
Studies
di (NIES),
(NIES) JJapan
S
Screening
i barriers
b i
and
d
actions for policies based
on modeling result
Junichi Fujino (NIES)
[email protected]
Member of “25%”
25% taskforce
Member of MOEJ mid- and long-term roadmap WG
Member of Japan and Asia LCS research project
Member of IPCC renewable energy special report
Dialogue between policy makers and researchers:
Demands and roles of SLCD/GG researchers from policy perspective, 16 Feb, 2010, Bogor, Indonesia
Japanese Emissions Targets towards 2050
350
Hop
CO2 emissio
ons [MttC]
300
Kyoto Protocol
d i 2008
during
2008-2012
2012
(Sink 3.8%, credit 1.6 %)
250
St
Step
200
25% in 2020
150
(incl. credit?）
100
Jump
50
0
80% in 2050
Japan
2000
2010
New Prime
Mi i t
Minister
Hatoyama
鳩山由紀夫
2020
2030
2040
2050
Japan
Even we understand the necessity of low‐carbon society…
• Difficult to have global agreement: COP15
• Difficult to change and find easy solutions
Difficult to change and find easy solutions
• Huge cost? Huge economic impact (lower income, higher unemployment rate, g
)
lower GDP growth rate)?
日本政府中期目標達成分析タスクフォース
１．モデル分析を行う研究機関
国立環境研究所（増井利彦社会環境ｼｽﾃﾑ研究領域統合評価研究室室長
他（藤野純一、肱岡靖明、花岡達也））
- AIM/Enduse[Global]モデル(世界モデル)
5 research teams
- AIM/Enduse[Japan]モデル（日本モデル）
- AIM/CGE[Japan]モデル（経済モデル）
地球環境産業技術研究機構（秋元圭吾ｼｽﾃﾑ研究ｸﾞﾙｰﾌﾟｸﾞﾙｰﾌﾟﾘｰﾀﾞｰ他）
- RITEモデル（DNE21＋）（世界モデル）
日本エネルギー経済研究所（伊藤浩吉常務理事他）
- エネ研モデル（日本モデル）
日本経済研究センター（猿山純夫研究統括部担当部長他）
- 日経センター・一般均衡モデル（経済モデル）
- 日経センター・マクロモデル（経済モデル）
慶應義塾大学産業研究所（野村浩二商学部教授）
- ＫＥＯモデル（経済モデル）
デ
経済デ
２．モデル分析を評価する有識者
有村俊秀上智大学経済学部経済学科准教授
7 experts
飯田哲也環境エネルギー政策研究所所長
環境エネルギ政策研究所所長
◎植田和弘京都大学大学院経済学研究科教授
栗山浩一京都大学農学研究科生物資源経済学専攻教授
土居丈朗慶應義塾大学経済学部教授
屋井鉄雄東京工業大学大学院総合理工学研究科教授
山口光恒東京大学先端科学技術研究センター特任教授
Marginal Abatement Cost to Reduce GHG emissions
Mitig
gation costss (Yen//ktCO
O2)
100,000
80,000
[Trans] freight car (change of ownership from private to commercial)
[Residential] Energy efficiency improvement of air conditioners
60,000
[Trans] Energy efficiency improvement of ships, rails and air
：Industry
[Commercial] Energy efficiency improvement of air conditioners
：Residential
[Residential] Energy efficiency improvement of lights
：Commercial
[Commercial] Energy efficiency improvement of lights
[Agriculture] Energy efficiency improvement and
saving in use
40,000
：Transportation
[Residential] HEMS
[Agriculture] Energy efficiency improvement and
saving in use
[Trans] Clean Diesel
[Transport] Bionergy
[Transport] Measures to
reduce service demands
：Agriculture
：Wastes
[Industry] Measures in the
Petrochemical industry
：F-Gas
FG
20,000
[Residential] Insulation
[A i lt ] Process
[Agriculture]
P
improvement
i
t off domestic
d
ti
animal excrement, ・
reduction of manure
[Trans] Conversion to electric vehicles
[Trans] Efficiency improvement
[Commercial] Insulation
[Trans] Highbrid
[Industry] Innovative processes
[Residential] High efficient water supply
[Industry] High efficient power generation
[Residential] PV
[Industry] Energy saving and recovery
[Commercial] Energy
efficiency improvement of
motors
[Wastes] Measures in the waste sector
‐20,000
Measures in F-gases
Alternative energy [Industry]
Energy efficient appliances [Residential]
Solar heater [Residential]
‐40,000
[Commercial] High efficient water supply
Cross-sectoral technologies [Industry]
PV [Commercial] [Commercial] BEMS
0
40,000
80,000
120,000
160,000
200,000
240,000
280,000
320,000
360,000
GHG Mitigation (ktCO2eq)
Japan
in 2020 (Case III)
400,000
As of 27
March
2009
5
Forecasting and Back
Back--casting
Mitigation
Technology
development
Policy
P
li
intervention and
Investment
Back casting
Back-casting
Chec
cking
year(20
025)
Chec
cking
year(2015)
2020
Long-terrm target ye
ear
required
intervention policy
and measures
Service demand
change
by changing social
behavior, lifestyles
and institutions
Required interven
R
ntion
Required
2000
Reference
future
world
ld
Forecasting
Release
e of
AIM re
esult
Environm
E
mental p
pressure
Technology development,
socio-economic change
projected by historically
trend
d
Normative
target
g world
50% reductions
2050 In the world
Model can supply consistent scenario
b
based
d on quantitative
tit ti data/assumption
d t /
ti
Innovations
Required
Policy
P
li
intervention and
Investment
Back casting
Back-casting
Chec
cking
year(20
025)
Chec
cking
year(2015)
2020
Long-terrm target ye
ear
Service demand
change
by changing social
behavior, lifestyles
and institutions
Incentives
required
intervention policy
and measures
2000
Mitigation
Technology
development
Reference
future
world
ld
Required interven
R
ntion
Value of
co benefit
co-benefit
(win-win)
policy
Forecasting
Release
e of
AIM re
esult
Environm
E
mental p
pressure
Technology development,
socio-economic change
projected by historically
trend
d
Different socioeconomy trend
Mindset
Vision
Normative
target
g world
Indicators to
evaluate
50% reductions
sustainability 2050 In the world
Japan LCS scenarios study
Y.Matsuoka
Kyoto Univ
Kyoto.Univ
Scenario team
J.Fujino
NIES
Coordinator
S.Nishioka
NIES, Project
Leader
M.Kainuma
NIES has coordinated this Japan LCS research project NIES,
Scenario
during FY2004-2008
FY2004 2008 in collaboration with around 60
Team
researchers from Tokyo Univ, Kyoto Univ, TIT, TSU,
leader
Forest Research Institute, etc.
Japan Low Carbon Society Scenarios toward 2050
Study
y environmental options
p
toward low carbon society
y in Japan
p
Advisory board：
advice to project
Techno-Socio Innovation Study
Green buildings
Self-sustained city
Decentralized services
GHG
G emission
BaU scenario
Energy savingTech. innovation
EE improvement
St t
Structure
change
h
New energy
Life-style
change
Reduction
Target study
Effective
2020
2
2050
2
2010
2
（eg. 60-80% reduction by 1990 level）Intervention
2000
2
Long-term
Long
term
Scenario
Development
Study
Transportation
system
IT-society
Valid
5
3
1
-1
Equity
GHG reduction target
1990
Develop socioeconomic scenario,
evaluate countermeasures using
i
econ-techno models
Next generation vehicles
Efficient transportation system
Advanced logistics
Eco awareness
Effective communication
Dematerialization
Urban structure
Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050
Middle-term
Target year
Loge-term
Target year
Suitable
Evaluate feasibility of
GHG reduction target
scenario
60 Researchers
Propose the direction of long-term global warming policy
[FY2004-2008, Global Environmental Research Program, MOEJ]
http://2050.nies.go.jp
Utilizing solar power
Visions and
Innovations
Eco-life education
Photovoltaic
10-20% energy
(25-47% house has PV on roof (now 1%))demand
d
d reduction
d ti
34-69MW
and develop high efficiency (<30%) PV
Reduce 1/2
energy demand
Share 100%
（currently 8%）
Monitoring system
High-insulation
equipped with appliances
Reduce 60% warming
energy demand,
share 100%
Super high
efficiency air
conditioner
Reduce
R
d
1/3 energy
demand,
share 100%
High efficiency
lighting
【eg LED lighting】
Diffusion rate: 20-60%
Stand-by energy
reduction
Comfortable and
energy-saving house
rooftop
p
gardening
Solar heating
COP (coefficients of
performance=8),
share 100%
LCS house in 2050
Fuel cell
Heat-pump
p p heating
g
Good information for
economy and environment
makes people’s behavior
low-carbon
share 0-20%
0 20%
COP＝5
share 30-70%
High
g e
efficiency
c e cy app
appliances
a ces
reduce energy demand and
support comfortable and safe lifestyle
5
Projected energy efficiency improvement:
Air--conditioners for cooling and heating
Air
9.0
MOE
CO
OP (Coeffficient of performa
ance)
8.0
Historical
AIST
7.0
6.0
Best
METI
2050s
Target
METI
5.0
4.0
Average
3.0
Worst
20
2.0
1.0
0.0
11
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055
Innovations
Residential sector
Energy reduction potential: 40
40-50%
50%
70
60
En
nergy Cons
sumption (M
Mtoe)
3
50
3
4
4
9
Hi-Insulated
Hi
Insulated
housing
12
40
23
17
Energy
Effiency
30
Change of the numbers
of households
Change of service
demand per household
Change of service
demand per household
Improvement
p
of energy
gy
efficiency
Electricity consumption
H2 consumption
Solar consumption
Biomass consumption
20
Gas consumption
10
Oil consumption
0
2000
2050A
2050B
Energy consumption in
2000
Change of the number of households: the number of households decrease both in scenario A and B
Change of service demand per household: convenient lifestyle increases service demand per household
Change of energy demand per household: high insulated dwellings, Home Energy Management System (HEMS)
Improvement of energy efficiency: air conditioner, water heater, cooking stove, lighting and standby power
Seconday Energy Consumption (Mtoe)
50
100
150
200
300
Decrease of
energy demand
2050(Scenario B)
Residential
Commercial
Trans. Prv.
Trans. Frg.
T
Trans.
P
Prv.: Transportation
T
t ti (P
(Private),
i t ) T
Trans. F
Frg.: T
Transportation
t ti (F
(Freight)
i ht)
Primary Energy Consumption (Mtoe)
100
2000(Actural)
Coal
300
400
Bi
Biomass
Gas
Biomass
500
600
70% CO2 cut
by 2050
Gas
Nuclear
2050(S
2050(Scenario
i B)
Oil
200
Oil
2050(Scenario A)
Coal
400
40% demand reductions
red ctions
2050(Scenario A)
Industrial
350
Trans. Prv.
Residential
Trans. Frg.
Commercial
Industrial
2000(Actual)
250
low-carbon energy
Solar and Wind
Nuclear
Hydro
Solar and Wind
How to implement
modeling
g results?
A Dozen Actions towards Low-Carbon Societies
Residential/commercial sector actions
1. Comfortable and Green Built Environment
Efficiently use of sunlight and energy efficient built
environment design. Intelligent buildings.
2. Anytime, Anywhere Appropriate Appliances
Use of Top-runner and Appropriate appliances.
Initial cost reduction by rent and release system
resulting in improved availability.
availability
Industrial sector actions
3. Promoting Seasonal Local Food
Supply of seasonal and safe low-carbon local
foods for local cuisine
4. Sustainable Building Materials Using local and
renewable buildings materials and products.
5. Environmentally Enlightened Business and
Industry Businesses aiming at creating and
operating in low carbon market. Supplying low
carbon and high value-added
value added goods and services
through energy efficient production systems.
Transportation sector actions
6. Swift and Smooth Logistics
Networking seamless logistics systems with
supply chain management, using both
transportation and ICT infrastructure
Press release
on May 22, 2008
7. Pedestrian Friendly City Design
City design requiring short trips and pedestrian (and
bicycle) friendly transport, augmented by efficient
public transport
Energy supply sector actions
8. Low-Carbon Electricity Supplying low carbon
electricity by large-scale renewables, nuclear power
and CCS-equipped
CCS equipped fossil (and biomass) fired plants
9. Local Renewable Resources for Local Demand
Enhancing local renewables use, such as solar, wind,
biomass and others.
others
10. Next Generation Fuels Development of carbon
free hydrogen- and/or biomass-based energy supply
system with required infrastructure
Cross-sector actions
11. Labeling to Encourage Smart and Rational Choices
Visualizing of energy use and CO2 costs information
for smart choices of low carbon goods and service by
consumers, and public acknowledgement of such
consumers
12. Low-Carbon Society Leadership Human resource
development for building “Low-Carbon Society” and
recognizing extraordinary contributions.
Identification of necessary actions
St by
Step
b step
t strategies
t t i
Diffusion of green
design building
Relatively high cost compared
to general building
Lack in knowledge of regional
specific climatic conditions
Incentives to the higher
performance building
Organizing training
classes and events
Lack in information of environmental
performance of the building
Certification & registration
g
of labeling
Too complicated
calculation required
Establishment of
simplified evaluation
method
Lack in p
personnel
who can implement
the calculation
dissemination of
diagnosis practitioners
Direct options
Indirect options
Barrier breaking
1. Comfortable and Green Built Environment
Contribution of Building Owners
Contribution of Architects, etc.
Standardization Period
Selection of residential buildings with high environmental efficiency.
Commission of low carbon design to architects and construction companies.
Development of low carbon architectural design methods. Investing for technology development
in insulation technologies, etc. Sustenance of regional worker skills.
Environmental Efficiency Labeling Introduction Period
Residential
Residentialhousehold
householdenergy
energydemand：-40%
demand：-40%(from
(fromFY2000
FY2000level)
level)
Building
floor
area
energy
demand：-40%
demand
40%
(from
FY2000
Building floor area energy demand：-40% (from FY2000level)
level)
Barriers
Barriers
Complex
Complexenergyenergysaving
gperformance
p
performance
saving
metrics,
metrics,high
high
calculation
calculationcosts,
costs,
insufficient
insufficient
personnel
personnel
Insufficient
Insufficient
incentives
incentivesfor
for
choosing
choosingenergyenergysaving
savingresidences
residences
and
andbuildings
buildings
Dissemination of diagnosis practitioners for energy-saving and CO2 reduction efficiencies
Establishment of simplified evaluation method for environmental efficiency of residences and buildings
Solar and wind
utilization design
Organizing training classes and events for passing on knowledge of architectural technologies
IIntroduction
t d ti and
d expansion
i off residence
id
and
db
building
ildi llabeling
b li system
t
for
f environmental
i
t l efficiency
ffi i
(new
(
building, renovation, mandatory indication upon leasing)
Finance-friendly
environmental
efficiency
Implementation and expansion of tax breaks and low interest loan financing
based on the environmental efficiency label
Nurturing of worker
skills & information
transmission
E t bli h
Establishment
t and
d review
i
off llong-term
t
energy-saving
i standard
t d d ttargets
t ffor buildings.
b ildi
2000
Future
Obj
Objectives
ti
Future Objectives
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Example to translate model results into policy actions
Japan LCS research project and CC policy
0. FY1990- start AIM (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model) project
¾ FY1997 AIM provided Kyoto Protocol simulations for Japan
¾ FY2000 AIM p
provided IPCC SRES/A1B marker scenario
1. Feb 13th 2007, Interim Report “Japan Scenarios torwards Low-Carbon
Society
y (LCS)
(
) -Feasibility
y studyy for 70% CO2 emission reduction byy
2050 below 1990 level-”
¾ May 24th 2007 Former Prime Minister Abe launched “Cool Earth 50” to
reduce 50% GHG emissions by 2050
¾ June 9th 2008 Former Prime Minister Fukuda set the target of
Japanese CO2 emissions reduction by 60-80% in 2050
2. May 22nd 2008, Interim Report “Dozen Actions towards LCSs”
¾ July 29th 2008 Japanese government set “Action Plan for Achieving a
Low-carbon Society”
3. April 2009, The Mid-term Target Committee, “six options for 2020”
(including 7%, 15%, 25% reduction compared as 1990 level)
¾ September 22nd 2009, New Prime Minister Hatoyama set the year of
2020 target as 25%.
Do we really succeed to explain
necessity
it off low-carbon
l
b society?
i t ?
• Avoid energy resource battles by using resources in
efficient ways
• Develop many innovations to support global sustainable
development
well-designed
designed city for comfortable and friendly
• Build well
transportation, living, offices, amusement space in
energy-saving/ renewable energy rich way…
Good entrance point to climb up the mountain “happy,
challengeable and sustainable society”
Model can support
pp
to develop
p
LCS scenarios in quantitative manner
with very good data input
Japan
Low Carbon
Society 2050
19
20091213-City Center, Copenhagen
Let’s innovate good evidence!
Keyword: Normative, Learning, Ambiguity
Innovations
Required
Policy
P
li
intervention and
Investment
Back casting
Back-casting
Chec
cking
year(20
025)
Chec
cking
year(2015)
2020
Long-terrm target ye
ear
Service demand
change
by changing social
behavior, lifestyles
and institutions
Incentives
required
intervention policy
and measures
2000
Mitigation
Technology
development
Reference
future
world
ld
Required interven
R
ntion
Value of
co benefit
co-benefit
(win-win)
policy
Forecasting
Release
e of
AIM re
esult
Environm
E
mental p
pressure
Technology development,
socio-economic change
projected by historically
trend
d
Different socioeconomy trend
Mindset
Vision
Normative
target
g world
Indicators to
evaluate
50% reductions
sustainability 2050 In the world

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