持続的農業と土地利用
亀山
宏
１．はじめに
本章では次の 2 つの課題について考察する。第 1 は、農業の環境汚染がどのような仕
組みで起こるか、それを防止するにはどうしたらよいか。第２は、環境汚染・公害を防
止し、環境保全を強化するためにはどうしたらよいか、である。
第２節において第１の課題について農地からの窒素流出という環境汚染を例にあげ考
察する。第３節では、これら 2 つの課題を考察するための大前提として、国際化が進む
にしたがって、農業の役割はどのように変貌するかについて、あらかじめ第１節で展望
する。
２．農業に期待される役割
世界の食料需給の動向を展望すると、2020 年頃から先は、10 数億の人口を抱える中国
やインドの所得水準が今の数倍に上昇し、食用および家畜飼料用の穀物に対する需要が
大幅に拡大することが主因となって、世界的な食料不足に襲われ、食料価格が高騰する
ものと予測されている。農業の最も重要な役割は、この食料危機の襲来に 備えて、食料
の量的な安全保障を確保するために長期的な戦略を着実に実践していくことである。
しかしながら、ここ１０年ぐらいは世界的な食糧過剰が予想され、その中で食糧輸入
の自由化が急激に進むものと予想されている。この中でわが国の農業が生き残り、食料
の輸入依存度をできるだけ抑えるためには、食料の国内供給費および食料の品質価値の
両方に関する国際競争力をできる限り強化しなければならない。
わが国の農地は、国際的にみて狭隘で傾斜地が多くて、そこで生産される農産物の供
給費を引き下げることは技術的に難しい状態にある。しかしながら、国民の所得水準は
世界のトップクラス に属しており、国民は安全･安心で、健康に良くて、しかも美味し
くて、新鮮で、品揃えがよいという意味で品質価値の高い農産物をできるだけ多く自給
するという役割を、わが国農業が果たすことを期待している。換言すれば、たとえ国際
的にみて供給費競争力が弱くても、それを相殺するぐらい品質価値競争力が強い農業を
確立することを要望している。
次に、国民が農業に期待している役割は「多面的機能」と呼ばれるポジティブな機能
を着実に達成することである。つまり国土の自然災害を防ぎ、きれいな空気、水、土壌
を保全し、快適な農村景観を維持する機能を国民が納得できる費用でもって提供するこ
とである。換言すれば、「環境への負荷」と呼ばれるネガティブな機能と影響をできる
だけ削減できるような農業、いわゆる「持続的農業」を営むことが要望されている。例
えば農業生産に対して肥料や農薬を多く投入し過ぎて、環境汚染を引きこすことがない
ことを望んでいる。
ところが、環境･資源を保全し、環境公害を防止するという持続的農業の働き・機能は、
農家が個々に市場で売買できるような私的な財・サービスでもって果たすことはできな
い。環境や水･空気という自然資源は広範な地域にわたって連続しており、そこに住む農
家の全部がまとまって環境汚染を防止しなければ、効果があがらない。しかもこの環境
１
汚染防止効果は、どの住民も，また地域の外からやってくる不特定の誰もが代価を払わ
ないで享受できる公共的な便益である。
農家は、私的な所得を獲得するために農業生産を営み、それと結合して環境･資源保全
および環境汚染防止という公共な便益を生み出す働きを果たすわけだが、もし農業生産
の採 算が合わなくなると、農業生産を放棄するようになる。そうなると必然的にこれら
の公共的な環境保全･汚染防止機能が提供されなくなる。そのような 事態の発生が予測
されるならば、政府･自治体は、これらの地域ぐるみで実施される環境保全･汚染防止に
要する費用を公共的な助成金によって補償してやらなければならない。
３． 農地の窒素流出の仕組みと防止対策
ここで 1 つめの課題、農業の環境汚染がどのような仕組みで起こるか、それを防止す
るにはどうしたらよいかという課題に移る。
作物の成長に影響する生物的（バイオ），物的（フィジカル）な要因としては，降雨，
気温，蒸発散量，土壌の特性，圃場の標高や傾斜などがある。作物栽培の過程では、肥
料成分として、化学肥料や作物の残さや家畜のふん尿が投入されるが、これらの肥料の
やり方によっては，環境に負の影響を与えることがある。そこで投入されたものが土壌
の中でどのように循環するかをみる。作物の茎葉や家畜のふん尿などが土壌に投入され
たこと，これらの有機物は，「有機栄養プール」に蓄えられるが、有機物の状態では，
肥料成分として植物の生育に利用されない。かえって直接に作物の根に触れますと根腐
れなどを起こして生育の障害ともなる。
図１に示すように，まず，「有機栄養プール」から無機化（M）されたものがいった
ん「無機栄養プール」に蓄えられる。肥料の投入（F）や大気中の窒素ガスの固定（FL
と SY）からの投入も「無機栄養プール」に蓄えられる。作物はこのように無機物になっ
て窒素栄養ならば，吸収（U）できる。有機物が施用されると、それに微生物が這い込
んで酵素を分泌し，有機物を分解・吸収して無機栄養分に変えるという無機化のプロセ
スが起こる。
ここで注目すべき点は，これらの無機栄養プールへの投入量が，作物による利用量を
超えた場合には，その分だけ地下へ流出（Ｌ：窒素とカリウムの溶脱）することである。
作物の成長にとって必要な窒素分だけが土壌の中に蓄えられていれば，窒素の流出によ
る環境汚染という問題は起らない。問題は，作物の利用量を超えて窒素が土壌中に蓄え
られる場合である．土壌への窒素流出は，過剰に窒素肥料を投入したり，前作から余分
な窒素分が持ち越されて，両方の窒素合計量が後作の 窒素利用量を上回る場合に生じる．
解決策としては，（１）前作と後作の間に、間作としてカバークロップ（ソルゴーや
菜の花など）を植えて，後作 を植え付けるに先立って、余分な窒素分を間作作物の生育
に使ってしまうこと，（２）即効性で流出しやすい化学肥料などの投入量を抑えて，そ
の代わりに遅効性で流出しにくい家畜ふん尿やほかの有機質肥料を用いること（３）た
とえ家畜ふん尿や有機質肥料であっても過剰に投入しないことである．こうした窒素循
環 についての技術的な知見を踏まえて，肥料投入のやり方を工夫することが，環境汚染
（負荷）を発生させないために必要である．
このように栽培作物や作付順序などを変更して肥料の投入量を減らすことができれば，
環境への負荷が減るが収量が減る。そのために市場総供給量が減って市場価格が幾分上
２
昇し、収量の減少率ほど生産者の所得減少率が減らないかもしれない。その際に、政府
や地方自治体が、生産者の所得減少分を直接的な所得支払い政策によって 補償すれば、
負荷の少ない選択肢を選ぶ方向に生産者を誘導することになろう。
図１窒素循環の概要
４．地域ぐるみで持続的な土地利用を管理するやり方
環境･資源を保全し、環境汚染を防止するという広域にわたる公共的な管理活動は、個
別農家や利害関係者が、地域ぐるみで共同組織をつくって計画的に実践しなければ、適
切な効果をあげることができない。
近年、地下水と飲料水の窒素による汚染が問題となり，各国において様々な法的規制が
とられている．オランダのワーゲニンゲン大学の研究者グループによる長年の研究成果
をみると、次の２つの点で興味深いものがある．
第１に，環境汚染を防止して持続的に農業を発展させるためには、地域の土地利用を
めぐる利害関係者の間で密接に連携して周到な調整を行う必要があることを示唆してい
る。
第２に，地域全体の土地利用に関する選択肢の中からどれを選択するかを決める際に
は、まず利害関係者の各人は、農業経営の短期的な収益性や長期的な持続性という私的
な経営目標，および環境・資源保全または環境汚染防止という公共的目標を評価する主
観的な尺度に差異があり、概してこれらの目標の間でトレードオフ関係（一方を立てれ
ば、他方が立たないという関係）があることを理解している。したがって、地域の土地
利用に関する利害関係者の間で環境･資源保全について、実効性のある統一目標を決める
ためには、綿密な調整を行うことが必要となる。しかも地域ごとに自然的な立地条件な
どの制約条件の差異にも配慮し、さらに環境･資源保全に関する政策･制度を十分に活用
３
しなければならない。
こうした考え方を中国に適応した事例である．北部の野菜産地では 経済成長に伴って
野菜生産が急速に進んでいる．従来は，農政の基本目標として、米･麦・トウモロコシ･
大豆などの穀類の完全自給を優先させいた． 近年は，都市産業と農業の従事者の所得格
差を是正するために、東部および南部地域では、零細耕地規模を拡大できず、穀類より
も単位面積当たり労働投入量が多くて、しかも 1 日当たり高い労働報酬をあげることが
できる野菜作を奨励する農政に転換してきた。
しかし、所得の増大を追求するあまり、野菜作で化学肥料を過剰に投入しがちであっ
た。これを抑えて環境への負荷を少なくし、健全な農地土壌を保全して一層持続的な農
業経営を営むために、環境汚染防止技術を開発し，それを農家に普及することが緊急な
課題になっている。
ここでワーゲニンゲン大学と浙江大学との共同研究の成果を紹介しよう．浙江省の浦
江は揚子江河口の杭州の南に位置し，水の豊かなところとして有名である． 表１は，地
域の貧困の削減と所得水準の向上をめざして、土地利用に関する開発政策について企画
された 5 つの選択肢および現状（参照）の成果を表示したもの である．5 つの選択肢の
内の 1 つめは、農地に労働と資本財をより多く投入するという経営の「集約化」である。
２つめは農地と労働を遊ばせることなく周年利用するために多様な作物や家畜を補完的
に組み合わせて生産する「多角化」である。3 つめも「多角化」、ただ労働集約度が異
なっている。4 つめは「農地の 拡大」，5 つめは農業労働を農外就業機会に転用する「農
業からの退出」という選択肢である。
どの選択肢でも，現状（表１の参照）と比べて、土地利用では「コメ、野菜」をそれ
ぞれ単作することよりも「コメ＋野菜」という複合化が増加している．私的な経営目標
の達成度を示す労働所得および土地生産性、および環境汚染防止という公共的目標の未
達成水準を示す「窒素過剰のために作物によって利用されない堆肥の割合」について５
つの選択肢と現状を比べてみよう。
そうすると選択肢の「多角化Ｄ2」は「現状」に比べて労働所得･土地生産性がともに
25 ポイント高いにもかかわらず、利用されない堆肥の割合がゼロであって 利用し尽く
す、最も望ましい選択肢であることがわかる。ついで、「多角化Ｄ1」は前者の指標が現
状に比べてともに 24 ポイントも高いが、後者の指標が現状の 22％に比べて 2.6 倍と最も
悪化している。「集約化」も前者の指標がともに６ポイントも高いが、後者の指標が現
状の 1.8 倍に悪化している。「農業からの退出」は労働所得が現状に比べて 21 ポイント
も増えているが、土地生産性が３ポイント減っている。その上，後者の指標も現状の 1.9
倍に悪化している。「土地拡大」は労働所得が 15 ポイント増えているが、土地生産性が
５ポイント減っている。さらに後者の指標も 1.7 倍に悪化している。
このように、「多角化Ｄ2」を別として、ほかの４つの選択肢は、私的経営目標と環境
汚染防止という公共的目標との達成度についてトレードオフ関係にあるので、それらが
選択されるかどうかは、地域の利害関係者がどのような総括的な目標評価尺度を以って
選択肢を比較・選択するかにかかっている。
４
表１
開発シナリオ別の土地利用の比較
とにかく、農村の広域にわたる環境保全･汚染防止という公共的な機能を効果的に果た
すためには、まず当農村地域に居住する全農家や利害関係者が、地域ぐるみで共同管理
組織を結成し、地域全体の農業生産の効率化と両立させながら、同時に環境保全･汚染防
止を効率的に達成できるような 対策を企画し、実行し、その成果を構成員に公正に分配
して、皆が満足してこの役割を持続的に続けてくれるように仕組まなくてはならない。
５．持続的土地利用か土地利用支援対策か
農家は，農業経営の採算が合わなければ、農業生産を放棄するようになる。そうする
と、環境保全機能は、私的な農業生産と結合して無償で供給されないようになります。
そのときには、環境保 全費用ほとんどを政府･地方自治体の助成金によって補填しなけ
ればならなくなる。国民は、安全で安心できる環境の中で生活したいならば、この助成
金を 惜しんではならない。しかしながら、そのために必要な国民の税金を適正水準に抑
えるためには、根本的対策として、多様な農業の担い手が私的な農業生産の 効率化を図
り、国際競争力を強化し、農業生産と結合供給する環境保全機能をできるだけ低い費用
で提供してもらうように仕組まなくてはならない。
わが国農業の国際競争力をあげるために最も待望されていることは、＜企業者的な農
業の担い手＞が続々と育成されることである。企業者的な農業の担い手とは、経 営革新
を先駆的に創意工夫する意欲と能力が高くて、しかも同時にその実施成果に関する不確
実性から生ずる失敗の危険をあえて冒して経営革新を実践し、経営の発展を図ろうとす
る、危険選好・発展選好性向の強い＜先駆的な革新採択者＞のことである。
彼らは地域の制約条件にもっとも適合する企業形態を選択する結果として、雇用労働･
借地･借入資本に依存する大規模家族経営または法人経営に発展したり、または適切な数
の集落農家が共同して集落営農経営を組織して、規模拡大と多角化の利益を追求するこ
とであろう。
わが国農家の現状は、安定選好・現状満足性向が強くて、農企業者の革新採択行動が
５
成功するのを見てようやく模倣するという＜追随的摸倣者＞、または模倣さえも渋ると
いう＜現状維持者＞がほとんどと推測される心細い段階にある。農家の大部分を占める
追随的模倣者や現状維持者が企業者経営革新早急に模倣普及指導員や営農指導員が、＜
地域との共存共栄的者＞が本気になってリーダーシップを発揮し、近隣の経営管理能力
を向上させることを支援してくれるならば、非常に効果的であろう。
参考文献
・合田素行『中山間地域等への直接支払いと環境保全』，家の光協会，2001．
・久馬一剛『土とは何だろうか？』，京都大学学術出版会，2005．
・西尾道徳『農業と環境汚染』，農文協，2005．
・中島紀一，古沢広祐，横川洋『農業と環境』，農林統計協会，2005．
・Hengsdijk H., Wang G., et al. Disentangling poverty and biodiversity in the context of rural
development: A case study for Pujiang county, China, (draft), 2005.
・Ponsioen T. C., Hengsdijk H., Wolf J. et. Al. TechnoGIN, a tool for exploring and evaluating
resource use efficiency of cropping systems in East and Southeast Asia. Agricultural Systems,
87(1), pp.80-100, 2006.
６
Socio-Economic and Tourism Functions of Agriculture in Philippine
Rogelio N. Concepcion, Lauro G. Hernandez, Edna Samari *
1. INTRODUCTION
Agriculture contributes to economic growth in terms of supplying goods and services and
generating income. In addition to this pure economic function, agriculture also provides a stable
job opportunity in the rural areas. Both the economic and added functions contribute to balanced
development and growth of rural areas.
Agriculture also contributes to the social development of the community in terms of providing
employment opportunities and income, which basically leads to viability of rural communities,
mitigation of urbanization and sheltering functions.
The food and security functions of agriculture extend beyond self-sufficiency of staple
food like rice and corn. It is defined as access to food at all times, everywhere and for
every one. The effect includes the insurance effect of a certain level of self-sufficiency
and provision of strategic needs relating to food safety and balanced nutrition.
Three sites representing the diversity of agriculture in the entire country are covered in this study,
namely:
¾ upland agro-ecosystem – focus on the watershed and on rainwater harvesting;
¾ island agro-ecosystem – focus on agri-tourism being LGU-driven with mango as the
regional banner of specialization; and
¾ highland agro-ecosystem – focus on high-end agriculture where agri-tourism promotes
premium for organically grown produce.
Protected agriculture in the
highlands
Mango orchard at Guimaras
Uplands of Talugtog, Nueva Ecija
*
Buear of Soil and Water Management, Department of Agriculture
Diliman, Quezon City, Philippine.
７
2.
FRAMEWORK FOR ECONOMIC VALUATION
Table 1 presents the framework of economic valuation for the three selected sites representing the
upland agro-ecosystem, island agro-ecosystem and the highland agro-ecosystem.
Correspondingly, the three sites are Talugtog, Nueva Ecija for the upland agro-ecosystem,
Guimaras for the island agro-ecosystem and Alfonso and Tagaytay, Cavite for the highland
agro-ecosystem.
Table 1. Framework for Economic Valuation
Site
Talugtog,
Nueva
Ecija
Scope
Function
Area Coverage
ƒ Pure Economic
7 SWIP in Talugtog,
ƒ Added Economic Nueva Ecija
ƒ Rice Sufficiency
ƒ Social Function
Guimaras
ƒ Agri-tourism
Cavite
(Tagaytay
and
Alfonso)
ƒ Agri-tourism
ƒ Oro-Verde,Buenavista
ƒ Manggahan estival,
Jordan
ƒ Local communities (5)
ƒ Sonya’s Bed and
Breakfast (SBB),
Alfonso
ƒ Tagaytay City
Estimation
ƒ Total and Incremental Production
ƒ Total and Incremental Production
Value
ƒ Food Supporting Capacity
ƒ Rice Supply and Demand
Capacity
ƒ Farm Employment
ƒ Travel Cost Method-CVM
ƒ WTP
ƒ Travel Cost Method-CVM
ƒ WTP
ƒ Premium on organically grown
food
Where relevant, the economic valuation covers the pure and added economic function, food
sufficiency, social function and agri-tourism in the identified sites. The pure economic function is
estimated in terms of total and incremental production and value. Its added economic function is
calculated based on farm employment. Food sufficiency is expressed in terms of food supporting
capacity and rice supply and demand capacity. Social function is presented in terms of physical
benefits but was not quantified.
Agri-tourism function is estimated based on contingent valuation method (CVM) using travel
cost method (TCM) and willingness to pay (WTP). In the case of high-end agri-tourism, effort
was made to estimate the premium for organically grown food.
８
3.
METHODOLOGY
Primary and secondary data were generated from various sources (Table 2). The conduct of
survey and of key informant interviews was undertaken for primary data generation.
Questionnaires were prepared for foreign tourists. On the other hand, interview schedule was
prepared for different respondents.
Interviews with guests and key informants
To determine the pure economic function, analysis on the contributions of agriculture, which
benefits from the small water impounding systems (SWIS) to the municipality in terms of total
and incremental production was undertaken. The total and incremental production value was
likewise estimated.
Food security function of SWIP is expressed in terms of rice and fish sufficiency at system level
determined by computing the total production and its supporting capacity. Rice sufficiency ratio
is also an indicator of food and security function.
The added economic function was analyzed in terms of the number of persons employed in the
SWIPS and income generated from such farm employment.
Social function was analyzed as to the number of persons benefited from the domestic as well as
access and recreational functions of the SWIP.
The valuation for the travel cost method (TCM) was derived using the formula:
Valuation = number of domestic/foreign tourists x cost per visit +
opportunity cost of work
where:
Opportunity cost of work = wage rate of tourists per day
Cost per visit = transportation fare (air, land and sea) + accommodation cost
９
Table 2. Data generation and instruments
Talugtog, N. Ecija
Survey:
Interview Schedule-4
™ Farmers
™ Fishermen
™ Domestic
™ System
Guimaras
Survey:
¾ Questionnaires – 1
¾ (Tourists)
¾ Interview
Schedule-1
¾ (Local Community)
Cavite (Alfonso
(Tagaytay
Survey:
ƒ
Interview
Schedule-1
Case Study
9 Questionnaire – 1
9 Interview Schedule
-1
9 Key Informant
Interview Guide – 1
In the case of Talugtog, Nueva Ecija, primary data were generated from 60 farmers and 4 key
informants while secondary data were taken from various agencies such as Bureau of Soils and
Water Management- BAR-SWIS Project (survey of 45 farmer respondents and 3 key informants),
Bureau of Agricultural Statistics, National Statistical Coordinating Board, National Statistics
Office, Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources and Municipal Agriculturist Office of
Talugtug, Nueva Ecija.
In the case of Guimaras, 259 guests both foreign and local made up the respondents. In Tagaytay
and Alfonso, Cavite, a total of 125 guests were interviewed. In both sites, secondary data were
gathered from the Municipal Agricultural Office and the Tourism Office.
4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
4.1
UPLAND AGRICULTURE
The study site is situated in the Municipality of Talugtug, Nueva Ecija, a 5th class municipality
located in Central Luzon and about 180 kilometers north of Manila. The municipality covers a
total land area of 10,122 hectares where source of livelihood is mainly farming, pasturing animals,
coal making and cogon harvesting.
The household population based from the 1995 census is 18,114. At a growth rate of 2.38
annually, population is projected at 22,380 for the year 2004. The total number of household is
3,887 with an average family size of 5. Productive population is about 61 percent of the total
population. About 18 percent of the labor force is unemployed.
Literacy rate for Talugtug is high at 96 percent. There are 12 primary and 8 elementary schools in
the area, which covers 28 barangays. There are two secondary schools. However, highest
educational attainment is low since many do not proceed to tertiary education.
The general topography of Talugtug is rolling to hilly in the northwestern and northeastern parts.
Agriculture is the major economic industry in the area. This sector is about 67 percent of the total
area of the municipality where some 6,686 hectares are planted to rice, the primary crop. Only 21
１０
percent of the area is irrigated and the rest is rainfed. Secondary crops are cassava, corn, onion
and garlic.
To date, the municipality has 7 small water impounding projects (SWIP) serving the upland
communities. These have become local attractions to adjacent municipalities and educational
institutions. With this development, agri-tourism in the municipality is at young stage.
4.1.1
Profile of SWIP
The 7 SWIP consist of Buted 1, Buted 2, Maasin, Villaboado, Sto Domingo, Sta Catalina and
Sampaloc. Beneficiaries of these systems are 234 farmers, 101 fishermen and 300 farm
households. On the other hand, 39 farmers/land owners were consequently displaced due to the
construction of the systems. These SWIP have a total service area of 240 hectares (Table 3).
Table 3. Profile of SWIP, Talugtug, Nueva, Ecija, 2004.
Items
Number
No of SWIP
7
No. of Beneficiaries
#. Farmers
#. Fishermen
#. Non- Farm Households
Total Households
234
101
300
635
Remarks
Buted 1&2, Maasin,
Villaboad, Sto.
Demingo, Sta.
Catalima, Sampaloc
39 Displaced
farmers /Land
owners
240
105(45%)
Small water impounding project – reservoir & watershed
Total Service Area(ha)
No. of Respondents
There are 105 farmer respondents, which constitute 45 percent of the total farmer beneficiaries.
Average age of farmers is 47 years. They have been into farming for 20 years on the average.
Literacy rate for the farmer respondents is high at 96 percent. Thirteen percent of them finished
college, 40 percent high school and 43 percent elementary.
１１
4.1.2 Pure Economic Function
Based on crop year 2004 in 7 SWIP in Talugtug, Nueva Ecija, the total cultivated service area of
240 hectares for the 7 SWIP contributed a total annual production of 1,518 MT of palay. Major
bulk of this production is contributed by Maasin SWIP having the biggest service area of 70
hectares (Figure 1).
Fig. 1
Aggregate production per SWIP, Talugtog, Nueva Ecija, 2004
Total production from the 7 SWIP has an equivalent peso value of PhP 13.8 million. Area
utilization was increased by 84 percent since cropping intensity was increased to two upon
construction of the SWIP. At an average production of 3,315 kg/ha in 7 SWIP for the second
cropping season, increment production totaled to 668 MT, which corresponds to PhP 6.3 million
value of production. Fish production, on the other hand, has a total of more than 4.15 MT of
tilapia, which is more than PhP 0.2 million in value. This includes the undetermined fish
production in 2 SWIP. The total value of production for rice and fish combined totaled more than
PhP 6.48 million (Table 4).
Table 4. Pure Economic Function of SWIP, Talugtug, N, Ecija, 2004
Items
Rice
Fish
Total
Total production (MT)
1,518
Total Producton Value (Millin PhP)
13.8
Incremental Production from SWIP (MT)
668
>4.15*
Contribution of SWOP(Million PhP)
6.3
>0.175
>6.475
Production in 2 SWPs is undetermined
１２
The total production of rice from the 7 SWIP contributes to 4 percent of the total production
of 36,464.6 MT in Talugtug for the Year 2004 (Figure 2). The table below presents the total
production from the irrigated and rainfed areas of the entire municipality (Figure 4a).
Table 4a. Rice Production, Talugtug, Nueva Ecija, 2004
Area Planted (Ha.)
Ave. Yield/ha. MT
Irrigated Non-Irrigated
Irrig. Non-Irrig.
Wet Dry Wet
Dry
2004 1431.10
5254.90 4.43 4.6
4.48 Year
Source:
Figure 2.
TOTAL
Total Production (MT)
(MT)
Irrigated
Non-Irrigated
Wet
Dry
Wet
Dry
6,339.77 6,583.06 23,541.95
- 36,464.78
Office of the Municipal Agriculturist, Talugtug, Nueva Ecija
Total Production of SWIP Compared to Total Production of Talugtug, 2004
At per capita consumption of 104 kg of rice, rice production in 7 SWIP can feed 8,026 persons.
On the other hand, fish production can feed more than 116 persons at per capita consumption of
36 kg (Table 5).
Table 5. Food Security Function of SWIP, Talugtug, Nueva, Ecija, 2004
Items
Quantity
Food Supporting Capacity
Rice
8,026 persons
Fish
>116 persons
Rice production in 7 SWIP supplied 36 percent of the total rice demand of the municipality
(Figure 3)).
１３
2327.5
2500
2000
1500
834.7
1000
500
36%
0
Supply of 7
SWIPS
Demand for
Talugtug
Figure 3. Rice Sufficiency, Talugtog, Nueva Ecija , 2004
4.1.3
Added Economic Function
The total job generated in terms of hired farm labor has benefited 849 persons or total wages
equivalent to PhP 0.08 million (Table 6).
Table 6. Added Economic Function of SWIP,
Talugtug, N.Ecija, 2004
Farm Employment
Items
Quantity
No. of Farm Labor employed
849
884
Total Wage Value (Million PhP)
.08
* Based on an average of 42 man -day/Ha hired labor.
Each person renders 22 man -day/month.
4.1.4
Social Function
For the social functions, there were 300 households who benefited from domestic functions in
terms of water used for washing clothes and health and sanitation purposes. There were also four
SWIS structures whose embankments serve as access of both people and vehicles to the adjacent
barangays. Undetermined number of persons also recreate in the systems’ reservoir by swimming
and bathing especially during the summer months (Table 7).
１４
Table 7. Social Function of SWIP,
Talugtug, Nueva Ecija , 2004
Item
Number of Households
Benefits derived from
SWIP
–
§ Domestic
F Households
i
S
d
300
Undetermined
b 3 SWIP
f
§ Recreation
F
i
§ Acces
4.2
4 SWIP
Island agriculture
Guimaras is located in the southeast of Panay Island and northwest of Negros Island in Western
Visayas (Region VI), Philippines. Its geographical extent covers approximately 122°27’30” to
122°45’00” E longitude and 10°19’30’ N latitude. Iloilo Strait separates the province from Panay
at a distance of 1.5 nautical miles and Guimaras Strait from Negros Occidental at 6 nautical
miles.
Guimaras Island is the youngest and smallest of the six provinces in Region VI. The province has
a total area of 60,457 hectares or three percent of the region’s total area.
The province is basically agricultural. The major crops grown are palay, coconut and mango.
Other important crops include citrus (mainly calamansi), cashew, sweet potato, vegetables and
corn.
Mango is the third most important commercial crop in Guimaras. About 16 percent of the
province’s area is devoted to mango production. Guimaras is the only province in the country that
exports to United States of America and Australia its “Carabao” mango, which is one of the best
varieties of mango in the world.
Mango production from the period 1999 to 2004 is presented in Figure 4a. Total production in
2004 reached 11, 149 mt valued at PhP204 million. Figure 4b indicates the value of locally sold
mangoes and the export value. Production comes from total bearing population of 130,000 which
represent about 69 percent of total. About 92 percent of the island’s mango are carabao variety
and the remaining 8 percent are native varieties such as Pico, Pangi and Apali.
The province has envisioned tourism as another major activity supplementing agriculture to
improve the quality of life of Guimarasnon while protecting its natural landscapes and
ecosystems and upholding its rich cultural heritage. Thus, this study focuses on mango areas as
agri-tourism destination. The province has identified agri-tourism sites and called it Agri-tourism
Circuit (Figure 4c). The Circuit links 8 of the 10 farm sites. These farm sites are orchard, bee
farms, salt farms and aquaculture ponds. Specifically, the sites are National Mango Research and
Development Center, Eli Sustituido Farm and Nursery, Kristel Citrus Farm, Guimaras Bee
Center, Sebario Salt Farms, Salvador Farm, Ann-Ann’s Farm, Oro Verde Mango Orchard and
SEAFDEC Igang Marine Substation and Aqua Farms in Nueva Valencia and Sibunag.
１５
Table 4a. Mango Production (in MT), Guimaras
Province, Philippines, 1999 - 2004
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Table 4b. Value of Mango Production
(PhP million), Guimaras Province,
Philippines, 2002 - 2004
300
250
200
150
100
50
-
2002
2003
Value of locally sold mango
Total value of Production
１６
2004
Value of exported mango
2004
Figure 4c.
Statistics from the Provincial Tourism Office (PTO) shows that in 2002, about 15 percent of the
total tourists, both local and foreign visited Guimaras for agri-tourism purpose in the form of
attending convention and field/study tour. This declined however, by three percent in 2003. In
both years, most of the visitors with agri-tourism purpose are local tourists.
Agri-tourism at this point is still at its infancy stage in Guimaras thus, the province is vigorously
pursuing continued tourism awareness and appreciation campaign, organization of municipal and
barangay tourism councils, strengthening of resorts associations and enhancement of municipal
and provincial festivals in order to promote its agri-tourism program.
As recorded in the Consolidated Visitors Arrival record of the Provincial Tourism Office (PTO),
local and foreign tourists visit Guimaras all year- round. This is because Guimaras is rich in
festivals, which are held monthly starting from January. However, these festivals are mainly
religious or cultural in nature. To meet the purpose of the study, main data gathering was done
during Manggahan Festival, which is held during the month of May. This weeklong festival is the
signature festival of the province commemorating its provincehood depicting its cultural heritage
with emphasis on the promotion of Guimaras as “mango country”. This is seen as the best time to
gather data from local and foreign tourists for agri-tourism purpose. The main data gathering,
therefore, were done during Manggahan Festival in May 2004 and 2005.
１７
4.2.1
PROFILE OF RESPONDENTS
There were about 259 respondents in the study. About 88 percent of which are local and foreign
tourists while 12 percent represent the local community. Of the tourists, about 12 percent are
foreign. Tourists from the United States of America constituted 42 percent; Japan and Australia,
15 percent each and the rest came from United Kingdom, Poland, Canada, Papua New Guinea
and Canada (Figure 5).
From the local tourists, the bulk or 51 percent came from Iloilo. About 11 percent were from
Region 4 while about nine and eight percent came from Region 11 and Metro Manila,
respectively.
The average age of respondents for tourists was 37 years while for the local community was 44
years. Male and female respondents shared equal percentage for tourists while majority of the
respondents from local community are males. All of the respondents have formal education. Most
of the tourist (76 percent) and local community (49 percent) respondents have either reached or
finished college.
About 46 percent of tourists were mostly government employees while 12 percent were private
employees. Students comprised 14 percent of the total tourists. The foreign tourists were mostly
Peace Corp volunteers (7 percent) visiting Guimaras for holiday. On the other hand, 44 percent of
the local community was employed in private companies and about 27 percent were barangay
officials.
88%
1%
5%
2%
2%
1%
1%
USA
Australia
Poland
Local tourists (Philippines)
Japan
UK
Others*(Canada, PNG, Korea)
Figure 5. Country of Origin of Tourists Visiting Guimaras, 2004 and 2005
１８
Purpose of Visit
The data shows that 51 percent of the respondents came to Guimaras for study tour/research
while about 30 percent is for holiday and paying visit to friends and relatives (Figure 6). The
study tour/research is mostly on cultural management and pest management of mango.
Attendance to private convention, seminars/trainings represented 7 percent of the main purpose
in going to Guimaras. Secondary to their purpose is to see what Manggahan festival is. Most of
the participants to the conventions were first timers to Guimaras. The convention organizers
chose to hold it in time of the Manggahan Festival. According to some interviews, Guimaras is
a new destination for tourists and Manggahan festival is a novel and interesting event to see.
Areas of interest
The main areas of interest are grouped into agri-based, nature-based, and religious. The naturebased tourism destinations include beaches, resorts and other related- sites; agri-based
destinations include Oro Vede Mango Plantation, National Mango Research and Development
Center (NMRDC), Manggahan Festival, Eli Sustuitido Farm, among others. Trappist
Monastery and local churches are among the religious sites visited by the tourists (Figure 7).
Of the agri-based site, Oro Verde Mango Plantation was the most frequently mentioned
destination (42 percent) and National Mango Research and Development center (NMRDC -14
percent).
30%
7%
10%
51%
1%
1%
Study tour/school/office/research
Holiday
Convention/seminar/training
Business
Others
Did not specify
Figure 6. Distribution of Tourists by Purpose in Going to Guimaras,
2004-2005
１９
11%
6%
3%
80%
Agri-based
Nature-based
Religious based
Others
Figure 7. Distribution of Tourists by Areas of Interest in Guimaras
2004-2005
About 62 percent of the tourists reported that it was their first visit to Guimaras while 33 percent
have visited Guimaras twice or more. For those who visited Guimaras a number of times, 30
percent mentioned that they were able to visit the province more than five times and 28 percent
reported that it was their second visit to the place.
About 43 and 26 percent stay in Guimaras for less than a day to one day, respectively. About 26
percent reported a stay of more than two days in Guimaras. Majority traveled to Guimaras with
companion (94 %). Only four percent traveled alone.
4.2.2
Perception on Guimaras as Agri-Tourism Destination
For tourists, about 48 and 43 percent reported that Guimaras is good to very good tourist
destination, respectively. The reasons cited why it is good to very good destination are presence
of mango orchard, processed agri-products and mango festival, beautiful beaches and sights,
good location and accessibility, people are accommodating and friendly, and the place is clean
and peaceful.
From the perspective of the local community, 58 percent reported that their province is a good
agri-tourism destination because of its well-known sweet tasting mango not only domestically but
internationally as well. It also boasts of its homegrown and processed agri-products and beautiful
beaches and resorts. According to them, the tourists could enjoy peace and serenity in their
province.
A few cited (two percent and 40 percent from tourist and local community, respectively) that it is
not so good a destination because it is not yet fully developed as it lacks amenities such as hotels,
department stores and banking services e.g. absence of automated teller machines. Aside from
rural banks, only Land Bank was present in the area. There was also no night life/ entertainment
center in the province.
２０
Perception of Tourists and Local Community on Guimaras as Agritourism Destination, 2004 and 2005
100
80
60
Tourists
Local Community
40
20
0
Very good
Good
Not so good
Bad
No answer
Figure 8. Perception of Tourists and Local Community on Guimaras as Agri-tourism
Destination, 2004-2005
4.2.3
WILLINGNESS TO SUSTAIN AGRI-TOURISM
About 92 and 93 percent of the tourists and local community respectively felt that agri-tourism
should be sustained in Guimaras while two percent each did not agree. Almost six percent from
both tourist and local community did not provide answer when asked about the sustainability of
agri-tourism in Guimaras.
The local community would like to sustain agri-tourism because it would help the province
improve its economy through provision of more jobs, additional income and might exclude Oro
Verde from the coverage of R.A. 6657, Comprehensive Agrarian Reform Law and this would
mean security in their job in Oro Verde mango plantation. They also mentioned that Guimaras
is the best destination offering this kind of agri-tourism function.
4.2.4
WILLINGNESS TO PAY TO SUSTAIN AGRI-TOURISM
While 93 percent of the total respondents believe that agri-tourism should be sustained, only
about 67 percent are willing to provide assistance for its sustainability. Of the tourists, about 63
percent are willing to pay or provide assistance while 87 percent of the local communities are
willing to pay for its sustenance.
There were three forms of assistance or payment vehicle that the respondents cited in sustaining
the agri-tourism in Guimaras (Figure 9). These were labor, cash and in kind. Labor is the
most frequently mentioned form of assistance (50 percent). Labor would be done in the form of
promotional campaigns, awareness program, information dissemination, and participation in
clean up and beautification drive. This was perhaps the most cited assistance because
agri-tourism is in its infancy stage in Guimaras.
２１
On the other hand, 25 percent would provide assistance in-kind like provision of tools. Only 18
percent are willing to donate cash. While some respondents or about nine percent indicated
willingness to pay, however, they did not specify the payment vehicle.
The modes of payment are one-time donation and regular donation. On cash donation, about 30
percent of the respondents are willing to pay on one-time donation while 64 percent are willing
to contribute on regular basis. Regular donation is subdivided into monthly, quarterly and
annual payments. One- time cash donation was reported by tourist only and the amount they are
willing to pay averaged to PhP 900. The amount for this modality ranged from PhP 100 to PhP
5,000. For regular cash donation, the average amount they are willing to pay was PhP 813 per
year. The regular donation ranged from P 50 to P 3,650 per year (Table 8).
On the other hand, for non-cash payment vehicle, which includes labor and in-kind, the average
one-time donation was P 428 while annual contribution averaged to P 463.
Table 8. Amount of cash donation by mode of payment, Guimaras, 2004 and 2005
Item
N = 33
Mean
Median
Mode
Range
Minimum
Maximum
One-time donation
(PhP)
30 %
900
500
1000
Regular donation
(PhP/year)
64%
813
500
500
100
5000
50
3650
Unspecified
6%
Figure 9 Willingness to pay for agri-tourism by payment vehicle and by mode
of payment, Guimaras, 2005
２２
Mode of Payment
Payment Vehicle
Not willing – 16%
Average Amount of
Payment (PhP/yr)
One-time- 30%
922
Monthly - 6%
240
Quarterly - 12%
2,400
Annually - 45%
777
Unspecified - 6%
259 respondents
Not specified –
17%
Cash – 18%
Willing – 67%
Non Cash- 75%
Labor – 50%
In-kind – 25%
One-time - 29%
428
Monthly - 10%
2,613
Quarterly - 12%
2,547
Annually- 19 %
463
Unspecified – 30%
Unspecified –7%
4.2.5
VALUE OF RURAL AMENITIES
The value of rural amenities provided by mango orchard as agri-tourism destination amounts
from PhP64 to PhP71 million, as follows:
•
•
Williness to pay (WTP) = PhP71 million
Travel cost method (TCM) = PhP 64 million
where:
No of tourists (local & foreign with agri-tourism purpose)
Average travel cost
Average opportunity cost
Average accommodation cost
Average cost of mangoes bought & souvenier items
２３
= 13,322
= PhP 1,874
= PhP957
= PhP757
= PhP1,199
Agri-tourism in Guimaras
4.3 Highland Agriculture
4.3.1
Case Study at Sonya’s Bed & Breakfast (SBB)
4.3.1.1
Profile of Sonya’s Bed & Breakfast (SBB)
Ms. Sonya Garcia owns and operates Sonya’s Bed & Breakfast at Buck Estate, Alfonso,
Cavite. SBB employed about 50 people mostly living around Buck Estate.
SBB offers nine (9) European/Vietnamese-inspired bed & breakfast family cottages at the
rate of PhP 2,500 net per person on weekdays and PhP 2,800 net per person on weekends
and holidays, inclusive of complimentary dinner with serenade and full breakfast. Other
features include an outstanding English garden with rare scented flowers of different
species, plant nursery of herbs and spices and organically grown leafy vegetables, country
store and secret cottage restaurant. The restaurant serves “eat all you can” lunch of leafy
vegetables fresh from its own garden, fresh lemonade in mint leaves and desert of fried
２４
banana with jackfruit and sweetened camote at PhP 550 per person served between 11
AM to 3 PM.
SBB also offers gardening lessons, cooking workshops using herbs, wreath making,
flower arrangements, yoga and meditation sessions for beginners. Other services are
massage, facial, hot oil and foot spa inclusive of shower and cup of tea made from basil
leaves, lemonade and sweetened by pure honey.
Benefits Derived by the Community with the Presence of SBB
Key informant interviews of the community around SBB revealed that the benefits
derived by the community with the presence of SBB are as follows:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Employment/job it gives to local folks
Provision of uniform to tricycle drivers e.g. vest & t-shirts
Scholarship to deserving high school and college students
Medication for sick person
Asphalting/improvement of the barangay road.
PROFILE OF GUEST AT SBB
There were a total of 74 guests-respondents. Their ages ranged from 19-70 years with an
average year of 39. The respondents were mostly female (66%). Most of the
respondents finished college degree (78%). Highest percentage of them is involved in
business (43%). Average annual income is high at about PhP 600,000.
About 35 percent are first timers at SBB. Others reported they have visited the area twice
(32%), 3 times (15%), 4 times (4%), 5 times (7%) and even for more than 10 times (3%).
The places of origin of guests are Metro Manila, provinces around Cavite and as far as
Tarlac, Baguio City, Iloilo City, Davao City and Zamboanga City. The guests come to
SBB mostly because of the following purposes: to eat vegetable salad/lunch (41 %), for
holiday/vacation (24 %), to relax (14%) and to have a full massage (5%), among others.
２５
Table 9.Profile of guests at Sonya’s Bed and Breakfast, 2005.
Items
No. of respondents
Average age of respondents
Gender
ƒ Male
ƒ Female
Highest Educational Attainment
ƒ College Level
ƒ College Degree
ƒ MA/MBA
ƒ PhD
Occupation
ƒ Business
ƒ Government Employment
ƒ Private Employment
ƒ Others
(retired/senior
housewife, student)
Average Annual Income (PhP)
4.3.1.2
Profile
74
38
34
66
3
78
16
3
citizen,
43
13
33
11
607,161
PERCEPTION OF AGRI-TOURIST AT SBB
Majority of the respondents (97%) perceived SBB as very good agri-tourism destination
because according to them SBB is a unique or perfect place for them relax, where healthy foods
are promoted. It is a good example of a place that can make urban dwellers be aware of the
benefits can be derived from nature or countryside.
4.3.1.3 PREMIUM ON ORGANICALLY GROWN FARM PRODUCE
Aside from enjoying the scenic views of agri-tourism sites, people put premium on organically
grown fruits and vegetables as source of safe and healthy food. Organically grown farm
produce/food are expensive than inorganically grown. Premium is the additional cost or price
the respondents are willing to pay to patronize the organically grown farm produce.
More than 80 percent of the respondents are willing to pay an additional 10 percent premium
for organically grown farm produce. Eight percent and 11 percent of them are willing to pay as
high as 20 to 50 percent premium, respectively.
２６
4.3.1.4
WILLINGNESS TO PAY
Using Travel Cost Method (TCM), PhP 4,288 is an average amount the respondents are willing
to pay per visit for agri-tourism at SBB. This consists of the following:
•
Fare
=PhP 355
•
Accommodation at SBB
= PhP 885
•
Food purchased
= PhP 453
•
Souvenirs purchased
= PhP 295
•
Opportunity cost of work
= PhP 2,300
With guests at SBB estimated at 28,965, the value of rural amenity based on willingness to pay
amount to P124.2 million.
Agri-tourism at Alfonso, Cavite
4.3.2
Case of Tagaytay City
4.3.2.1 PROFILE OF TOURIST-RESPONDENTS
A total of 51 tourist-respondents were interviewed in Tagaytay City. Of this, 80pe3rcent
are local tourists and 20 percent are foreign tourists. Average age is 42 years. Most of
them are male (69%). Almost 80percent finished college education. Average annual
income is about PhP 400,000.
Of the foreign tourists, six (6) came from Bangladesh, and one (1) each from Germany,
India, Kenya and Romania. On the other hand, of the 41 local tourists, majority came
from Manila (>50%).
２７
Table 10. Profile of tourist-respondents, Tagaytay City, 2004.
Items
No. of respondents
Classification of tourists
ƒ Local
ƒ Foreign
Average age (years)
Gender
ƒ Male
ƒ Female
Highest educational attainment
ƒ High School
ƒ College Level
ƒ College Degree
ƒ Postgraduate (MS)
Average Annual Income (PhP)
Profile
51
80
20
42
69
31
2
6
76
16
401,137
The purposes of the respondents in coming to Tagaytay are as follows:
1. Holiday/Vacation – 55 %
2. Business – 18 %
3. Feasibility Study Research – 14 %
4. Attend Seminar – 10 %
5. Buy Organically Grown Fruits and Vegetables – 4 %
A little more than 50 percent of the respondents visit their area of interests in Tagaytay
City for less than a day because they can come back to Manila because of its proximity.
However, 20 percent and 16 percent visit Tagaytay City for about a day or two,
respectively.
4.3.2.2 PERCEPTION OF AGRI-TOURISM IN TAGAYTAY CITY
Fifty eight percent of the respondents perceived Tagaytay City as good agri-tourism
destination, while 40 percent perceived it as very good and 2 percent - not so good. The
latter perception considered that Tagaytay has developed considerably with its natural
aesthetic value declining because of rapid urbanization.
4.3.2.3 Premium on Organically Grown Farm Produce
To patronize organically grown farm produce, about 60 percent are willing to put 10
percent premium or the additional cost or price the respondents are willing to pay to
patronize the organically grown farm produce.
A little more than 25 percent of the
respondents are willing to pay 25 percent premium, and about 5 percent of the
２８
respondents each are willing to pay 20, 30, 75 and 100 percent premium on organically
grown farm produce.
4.3.2.4 Willingness to Pay
Of the 51 respondents, 55 percent are willing to pay to sustain agri-tourism in Tagaytay,
33 percent are not willing and 12 percent are undecided.
Of the 55 percent willing to pay, about 12 percent are willing to pay cash. Of which, 43
percent are willing to pay cash one time at PhP 300/year, 14 percent monthly at PhP
720/year, 14 percent annually at PhP 200/year but still 28 percent are undecided.
Figure 10
Willingness to pay for agri-tourism by payment vehicle and by mode of payment,
Tagaytay, 2005
Payment Vehicle
Undecided
(12 %)
Not willing
(33 %)
Mode of Payment
Average Amount of
Payment (PhP/yr)
One-time (43 %)
300
Monthly (14 %)
720
Annually (14 %)
200
undecided 28 %
undecided
51 respondents
One-time 18%
Monthly 12 %
Cash
(12 %)
Quarterly 6 %
Undecided
Annually 53 %
Willing
(55 %)
Non Cash (31%)
Labor (20 %)
In Kind (11 %)
Undecided 12 %
No response
(57 %)
Based on willingness to pay, the non-use value of rural amenity at Tagaytay City amount to PhP
181.2 million.
5. SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATION
Multi-functionality is a non-tangible attribute of agriculture that needs to be appreciated and
valuated. Table 11 provides the summary of the valuation of agriculture in three agro-ecosystems.
Notably, the multi-functionality of agriculture in different agro-ecosystems varies depending on
its multiple roles relative to environment, economy and society and culture. Valuation for the
environment of the uplands is provided in separate report.
The non-tradable benefits or multi-functionality of agriculture is substantial relative to the
conventionally traded agricultural goods as reflected in the case of the uplands and the island
２９
agriculture. The non-use value of agriculture is also considerable as in the case of the highlands
and the island agriculture. Hence, the total role of agriculture in sustainable development should
be better understood considering the multi-functionality of agriculture.
Valuation of multi-functionality of agriculture can serve as tool to decision making on
sustainable development. In aid of decision making, valuation of multi-functionality is applicable
to issues and concerns such as:
™
™
™
™
Land reclassification & conversion
Agricultural land use planning
Conservation & preservation management planning
Agricultural trade policy
Table 11. Summary: Multi-functionality of agriculture in three agro-ecosystems,
Philippines
Goods
Agroecosystems
Use value
(Pure
economic)
Uplands of
Talugtog
13.8 M
Small Island
agriculture cum
tourism -
204 M
Multi-functionality
Environ
mental
function
Added
economic
function
1,986 M
589 M
1.8 M
Agritourism
(TCM)
Non-use
value
(CVM- WTP)
64 M
71 M
124.2 M
181.2 M
Guimaras
High-end
agriculture of
the highlands Cavite (Tagaytay,
Alfonso)
On agricultural policies relating to land classification and conversion, protection of agriculture
can be strongly justified or denied on the basis of multi-functionality. Similarly, issues of
agricultural conservation and preservation against claim for economic development can be
decided better with valuation of multi-functionality.
For purposes of agricultural land use planning, various land use zones can be ranked and
prioritized according to their multi-functionality. Agricultural land use zones with the lowest
multi-functionality can be given up to alternative non-agricultural uses while those with high
multi-functionality can be retained and provided support to sustain agricultural and rural
development.
On agricultural trade, protection of Philippine agriculture in the world trade can be better justified
with valuation of multi-functionality of agriculture.
Thus, valuation of multi-functionality would provide the true worth of agriculture and its
competitive advantage can be better understood and appreciated vis-à-vis alternative uses.
３０
Multifunctionality of Agriculture in Vietnam
Pham Minh Tri ＊
Abstract
This study has been carried out to evaluate contribution of agriculture in terms of food security
function, economic and social function, environmental function and cultural function in Vietnam.
Case studies have been undertaken both in low land (Red River Delta) and hilly areas (Northern
Mountainous Region). A series of roundtable discussion and seminars has been carried out not
only among research members but also officials at various level of administration during
implementing period (2001-2006). Various methodologies have been introduced to evaluate
functions of agriculture and rural commodities such as rural participatory assessment, indirect
substitute method, choice modeling, etc.
Food security in Vietnam has been considered as a crucial issue not only for economic but also
for political stability. Although Vietnam has been secured in terms of food grain at nationwide
people in some regions like Northern Mountainous and remote areas are still short of food due to
poor infrastructure or less affordability. Food security function of agriculture in the Northern
Mountainous Region is widely public awareness among the interviewed households, which
indicates an important role of agriculture in general and rice production in particular as a crucial
function to reduce the hunger and poverty.
Economic and Social Function has been characterized with income generation and job creation.
The study team has also identified that there is a close relationship between this gap and share of
agricultural income among surveyed households. Agriculture has contributed to more equality
among the surveyed households, which is indicated that the gap in income is inversely
proportional to share of agricultural income. The surveyed data have also indicated that
households in the rural area are more equal in terms of income than that in the urban area. Gini
coefficient of income of whole country is 0.3625 whereas it is only 0.2813 for the Northern
Mountainous Region. This number of rural area is 0.2766 whereas it is 0.3406 for the urban area.
However, the study team has also discovered that there is a tendency to increase Gini coefficient
during the years. For example, the Gini coefficient of Cao Bang has been changed from 0.23434
in 1997-98 to 0.28980 in 2003 and relatively from 0.1615 to 0.2715 for Hoa Binh province,
which indicated partly effects of industrialization and modernization in the country and expresses
again the important role of agricultural for rural viability. Data from survey in the selected
provinces showed that more than 60 per cent of farmers considered that agriculture has created
festivals and customs to mobilize commune social lives, follows by income generation (24.8 per
cent) and reservation of cultural customs (nearly 23 per cent). Sheltering function has also
evaluated for the country when there was some economic shock like Asian Financial Crisis in
1997.
＊
Institute of Policy and Strategy for Agriculture and Rural Development
No. 6 Nguyen Cong Tru Hanoi, Vietnam
３１
Environmental function has been evaluated for the Red River Delta in terms of water reservation,
flood prevention. Moreover, this function has been developed for evaluating of so-called “flood
diversion zone” in Red River Basin as specific measure to protect the City of Hanoi in case of
high level of flooding water. It can be seen that parallel with high amount of GDP that has been
produced and shared by paddy producers, another value has also been produced by farmers but
shared among the public. This proportion varies from 1/14 to 1/7 depending on scenarios.
In order to evaluate the value of rice terraced field landscapes (considered as Cultural Function)
the study team has chosen Sa Pa as pilot site. There is a tendency to increase the number of
visitors to Sa Pa over the last 5 years, more than double, especially the number of foreigners
increased very fast, almost 4 times compared to that of the year of 2000. The data collected
among the tourists showed that all the visitors are amazed with the extraordinary scenery, they
feel interested in the local culture and environment, and they appreciate the contact the have with
minorities in their own village. Several methods have been used to estimate this function such as
willingness to pay technique, choice modeling, etc. A number of 800 tourists have been surveyed
by structured questionnaire combining with choice sets. The estimation procedure has been
programmed in LIMDEP has shown an important of rice terraced fields as well as rural values in
the area.
In conclusion, multifunctionality of agriculture is a complicated issue, which needs a
comprehensive analytical work. Each country, each area depending on stage of development has
different emphasis to be considered into policy implication. For developing country like Vietnam,
food security is still a crucial factor for economic, political and social stability. Agriculture is the
major sector to generate income, employment for rural population of the country as well as the
equality among people. Rural societies are often interested for not only citizens but also
foreigners, which is an attractive factor to motivate tourists to come to enjoy. Co-production of
agriculture such as terraced rice landscapes, festivals or cultural values is often evaluated much
higher in comparison to the pure economic value of agriculture, especially when the process of
industrialization and modernization is increasingly encouraging. Case studies on
Multifunctionality of Agriculture in Vietnam have identified several multi-functions of
agriculture, which need to be evaluated precisely to enable policy makers to take considerations
for development strategies.
３２
Introduction
Vietnam is an agrarian country with a paddy farming culture. Nearly 70 per cent of total labour
force has been involved in agriculture. Agricultural sector has contributed relatively larger share
to the trade balance and employment. Although the share of agricultural sector in national Gross
Domestic Product has been decreased relatively due to expansion of industrial and service sector
this number of agricultural sector is still high compared to other countries in the regions (more
than 20 per cent). Agricultural export is accounted for one fourth to one third of total national
annual export in terms of value. Vietnam is one of the largest exporters of rice, rubber, coffee,
pepper, cashew nuts in the world.
Paddy farming is one of the most important activities in Vietnam agriculture. Annual average
growth rate of paddy production is nearly 6 per cent in the recent years. Paddy production has
been contributed not only on food security but also on rice export of the country. The share of
rice in agricultural production output is ranged from 55% to 60% and it is the main staple for the
population of nearly 80 million people in the country. The volume of exported rice in the late
decade has been reached the amount of 3-4 million tonnes per year, which enables to balance the
input import for agricultural production.
Rural development has also been the first priority of country policies up to now not only because
of the fact that nearly two thirds of the population are living in this area but also there are several
invisible values which can be categorised as multifunctionality of agriculture. These externalities
has become more important for the society as general at these days when people are interesting in
food safety, in environmental as well as social issues which related to improvement of quality of
life.
ASEAN-Japan Project on Multifunctionality of Agriculture has been supported much on Vietnam
Case Studies in terms of capacity building as well as funding. It is the very first case in the
country for evaluating multifunctional roles of agriculture. Under instruction of Ministry of
Agriculture and Rural Development, Institute of Agricultural Economics (now is Institute of
Policy and Strategy of Agriculture and Rural Development) is assigned to undertake this
collaboration with ASEAN and Japanese Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries since
2001 to 2006 through 2 phases of studying. In the first phase (2001-2003) the study has been
focused mainly in the Red River Delta region aimed to introduce the concept of
Multifunctionality of Agriculture as well as the cropping patterns for income improvement and
environmental protection in the rice producing areas. However, qualitative evaluation of
multifunctionality of rice farming has also been studied. The quantitative evaluation of this
concept has been studied mainly in the phase two of the case studies (2004-2006) with new
project site – Northern Mountainous Region of Vietnam.
During this period several works have been done including public awareness of
Multifunctionality of Agriculture as well as evaluation of some functions of agriculture in
nationwide and in some regions such as Red River Delta and Northern Mountainous Region.
Case studies in Vietnam have been pointed out several issues which related to the evaluating
Multifunctionality of Agriculture that should contribute much for policy consideration in future
development of the country. This could be food security, economic and social functions,
environmental and cultural functions.
３３
The case studies have also been improved itself from more qualitative to more quantitative
evaluation, from project sites to nationwide. The studies has been evaluated several aspects of
Multifunctionality of Agriculture to propose policy improvement for agriculture and rural
development.
Rationale for selected functions
Agriculture and rural areas have a great contribution on flood prevention, land slides, water
retention, as well as landscapes or recreation grounds, etc. In general, multifunctionality has been
created by economic externalities of agriculture. In other words, these functions have
characteristics of by-products generated from agricultural production. In addition, these functions
have characteristics of public goods to meet demand of all the people in the society not
depending on the fact where they have been paid or not. Therefore, it is very difficult to evaluate
this contribution of farmers to the society.
As multifunctional roles are formed by external economics and have characteristics of public
goods, if supply of these functions depends on the market mechanism, efficient resource
allocation will be hindered due to market failure. Therefore, policy intervention is necessary to
maintain these roles. However, these functions are not tradable on the market and they do not
have market prices. Moreover, understanding of these multifunctional roles among the public
awareness is very limited, for which it is difficult to convince for policy intervention. As a result,
it becomes a burning issue to evaluate benefits of multifunctional role of agriculture and rural
areas in the monetary term.
In Vietnam case, several functions has been evaluated by the research team including Food
Security Function, Economic and Social Function, Environmental and Cultural Function
There are several reasons for the research team to consider food security as the first function to
evaluate in the country. To ensure population with food is not easy task for the agricultural sector
in the developing country like Vietnam. In the 70’s and 80’s Vietnam is net importer of rice.
Several chronicle famine has been occurred. Population has been short of food. However, with
introduction of “innovation policy” agricultural production has been improved which is not only
providing enough food for the more than 80 million people in the country but also exporting
agricultural products to other countries. With that achievement national food security has been
solved but it is only the issue of availability. Other aspects of food security are still there in terms
of accessibility and affordability in some regions. Food security is one of the first priorities of
national policies not only due to its economic aspect but also social and political aspect. Food
security provides social stability for development. Recently, with high level of food security
agricultural sector has contributed much to exporting. Vietnam has been ranking as one of the
largest exporters in some agricultural products such as rice, coffee, pepper, rubber, etc. However,
food security still is issues to some regions due to poor infrastructure as well as low economic
growth, for which there had to be considered into the national policies for development.
The Economic and Social Function has been stemmed from the fact that at present stage of
economic development almost two thirds of country population is living on agricultural activities.
３４
Agriculture is now main income resource in rural area and it become shelter for the people from
industry and service sector when there was some economic shock or crisis. Unlike other
developed countries agriculture has been contributed much on country development not only
because of its share in total GDP but also its importance in employment.
Environmental function of agriculture in the Red River Delta region is crucial in terms of flood
mitigation. In this region during raining season huge amount of water has been stored in the rice
fields in certain time before discharge into river which can also reduce flood damage for the
resident areas especially for big cities like Hanoi – capital and political, economic, trade and
cultural center of the country.
Agriculture and rural areas create beautiful landscapes and traditional cultural heritage. They are
often used for tourism attraction and provide rural community with additional income.
Furthermore, they play an important role to enhance the quality of life for those who live in rural
areas. In the northern part of the country, the rural values of ethnic minority have been created
from agricultural activities and mobilised the villages for development. Studying of these aspects
of multifunctionality of agriculture to convince policy makers to take these values into account of
policy formation to assess roles of agriculture not only by its pure economic values but also
invisible values.
Study of Functions
Vietnam case studies on Multifunctionality of Agriculture have been focused mainly in Food
Security Function, Economic and Social Function, Environmental Function and Cultural
Function.
1. Food Security Function
a) Methodology
Food security is understood to be access to food (at all times, everywhere, and by everyone) and
to be substantially dependent on domestic production in combination with an adequate supply of
food reserves and the capacity to import. In this connection, national agricultural sectors have
two functions: (i) domestic food supply and (ii) export of some agricultural products enabling
imports of other foodstuffs. Some of the food security effects resulting from domestic agricultural
production may be expressed through market mechanisms, but others are externalities or public
goods, for example, the insurance effect of a certain level of self-sufficiency or the provision of
national strategic needs (food safety and balanced nutrition).
To specify this function, the research team has utilised the qualitative analysis of food production
in Vietnam for long term period in order to assess the change of food production situation from a
net food country-importer in the past to one of the largest exporter of rice and other agricultural
products in the world. Other aspects of food security function have also been assessed including
its accessibility for the rural and remote areas. For this analysis, self-sufficiency ratio, import
dependency ratio and percentage of expenditure on food, etc are being used.
３５
b) Findings
Food security according to the World Food Summit in 1996 exists when all people, at all times,
have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary
needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. Therefore, it is not only food
availability but also ability to access of people including distribution system, ability to pay, etc.
Food security is often the first priority in agriculture and rural development in Vietnam. Having
been experienced in food shortage during 80’s people has considered food security as a crucial
not only for economic but also for political stability. At national level, food has been secured but
at regional level especially in the Northern Mountainous Region food security is still a problem.
Although the annual volume of export rice is around 3.5 to 4.0 million tones, the food grain
production differentiates from region to region. Per capita rice production in this region is
relatively low in comparison with other regions in the country. Moreover, most of the food grain
area is rain fed or limited irrigation, which indicates unstable production and high seasonality.
The infrastructure in this region is not good enough for transportation of food causing a seasonal
food shortage during the year, especially when the climate is not in favor for local food
production. Other conditions such as storage or processing facilities do not enable farmers to
ensure their demand of food. In reality the food shortage is not completely over in rural areas and
has been occurred more often compared to other areas in the country. Therefore, food security for
the people in this region has been the main indicator for Vietnam to carry out successfully the
programs for poverty alleviation over the country in coming years. Although annual per capita
food grain production of the Central Regions and South East is lowest but there are more
developed regions in terms of cash crops and high-income activities such as aquaculture,
industrial crops (coffee, pepper, rubber, etc) or industrial and export specialized zones, in which
food security of households can be ensured by high incomes and availability (see Table 1).
Table 1. Annual per capita food grain production in Vietnam 2000-2003
Region/province
Whole country
Red River Delta
2000
2001
2002
444.8
435.5
463.6
403.0
385.5
400.9
277.9
300.5
320.9
Northern Mountainous Region
North Central Coast
302.1
316.1
333.7
South Central Coast
264.6
268.8
267.2
Central Highlands
214.1
233.2
252.7
South East
172.5
169.3
169.3
Mekong River Delta
1025.1
974.2
1066.3
Adapted from Statistical Yearbook 2004, General Statistics Office
Unit: kg
2003
462.9
384.3
335.0
342.2
288.7
302.0
173.4
1046.3
Such regions as Red River or Mekong River Delta are the main players to ensure not only food
supply for other regions like South East or Northern Mountainous but also the main providers for
rice export in recent years (see Table 2).
３６
Table 2. Annual production and export of rice
Export
Output
volume
Year
(Mill.
(Million
Tons)
tons)
1990
19.2
1.6
1991
19.6
1.0
1992
21.6
1.9
1993
22.8
1.7
1994
23.5
2.0
1995
24.9
2.0
1996
26.4
3.0
1997
27.5
3.6
1998
29.1
3.7
1999
31.4
4.5
2000
32.5
3.4
2001
32.0
3.7
2002
34.0
3.2
2003
38.1
3.8
2004
40.6
4.1
2005
41.8
5.2
Adapted from Statistical Yearbooks, General Statistics Office
To ensure food security in the Northern Mountainous Region is very difficult task over the time
due to several circumstances such as: less favorable conditions for production (limited
availability); poor infrastructure (poor accessibility); low income generation and job creation
(low affordability).
A survey data shows that there is about one fourth (24.44 per cent) of households have been
facing food shortage during the year, of which 16.22 per cent of them are short of food up to 3
months; 6.45 per cent – short of food from 3 to 6 months and 1.77 per cent – short of food more
than 6 months. In some remote villages such as Lam Son (in Bac Kan province) or Chieng Mung
(in Son La province) this number is more than 40 per cent. The proportion of households that can
manage the food surplus is not high, less than 21 per cent of total surveyed families and the
volume of surplus are very little, just above adequate one. They said that their food production is
vulnerable during the year depending much on climate change. It is also the reason for that there
is a few households to decrease their food production in coming year (only 3.01 per cent of
interviewed families). Most of them considered to keep the same level of production or to expand
more planting areas to secure their food demand.
Having been studied food security in the provinces the research team has been recovered
different trends in terms of self-sufficiency ratio during last 5 years.
The self-sufficiency ratio can be calculated by following formula:
r=
Pfood
Dfood
３７
where r is self-sufficiency ratio; Pfood is total annual food grain production,
mainly rice and maize; Dfood is total consumption of food grains including for
human and livestock.
There is a tendency that the self-sufficiency ratio of the rural provinces (Bac Kan and Son La) to
be improved from 0.67 to 0.85 for Bac Kan province and from 0.53 to 0.61 for Son La province
over the years 2000-2004 (see Table 2). However, this number of Phu Tho province has been
decreased from 0.89 to 0.75 due to urbanization and industrialization during last 3 years, which
make food security of the province much depends on other provinces, mainly from Red River
Delta Region (a main rice producing area in the North).
Table 3. Self-sufficiency ratio of surveyed provinces
Year
Bac Kan Province
Son La Province
Phu Tho Province
2000
0.67
0.53
0.89
2001
0.73
0.54
0.89
2002
0.79
0.56
0.90
2003
0.85
0.59
0.75
2004
0.85
0.61
0.75
Adapted from surveyed data
In terms of future development of food production among interviewed households, about 65% of
them are considered not to reduce the current production level, especially for the households of
Chieng Mung and Chieng Pan village (Son La) or Cao Ky village (Bac Kan). In contrast, there
are only 10% of interviewed households in Phu Tho province tends to keep the current level of
agriculture. All these indicate the importance of agriculture for households’ living at present time.
2. Economic and Social Function
a) Methodology
Pure economic function of agriculture is understood as the classical and historical function of
agriculture in economic growth such as food supply and income generation. In addition to this pure
economic function, agriculture also provides the people living in the rural area with stable job
opportunities regardless of economic fluctuation. These pure economic and additional functions
contribute to the rural development well balanced with urban area as well as to the healthy growth
of rural communities, which are important factors in the sustainability of a nation’s overall
development.
Besides, Agriculture contributes to rural viability mainly through the creation of employment
opportunities and income, which permit farming populations to stay on the land and participate in
the economic and social life of rural communities. If the life in rural areas is attractive for both rural
and urban people, it can also lead to the mitigation of urbanising. When a serious economic crisis
occurs, it is often said that an agricultural sector absorbs excessive labour force in urban areas, and
thus it mitigate the formation of the slum and decrease the crime rate in urban areas. Agriculture
plays a role of a buffer, safety net, or economic stabiliser when a society faces economic recession
３８
or exogenous financial shocks. Policy makers often overlook this socially stabilising role which is
called sheltering function.
Economic functions of agriculture has been assessed by several indicators including share of
agricultural sector in national total GDP, proportion of labor force involving in agricultural sector,
etc.
To specify this function, data on change in share of agriculture in GDP during economic crises or
share of agricultural employment are collected.
To specify income distribution, inequality-concentration measures, such as Lorenz curves and
Gini indexes, and a detailed national income analysis to measure the social utility loss of
inequality are required. For these analyses, data based on household surveys (consumption,
savings and income, etc.) is used based on Vietnam Living Standard Surveys in the recent years.
In order to work out inequality among households in the rural and urban areas, the data set of
Vietnam Living Standard Survey has been used to compute Gini coefficient of income of
households in following formula:
N
GINI = 1 − ∑ ( Fi − Fi −1 )(Yi + Yi −1 )
i =1
In which:
• N is the serial order of the member in the sample from the person with the lowest
expenditure to the person with the highest expenditure
• Fi is the percentage of the cumulative population added to the ith group
• Yi is the percentage of the cumulative expenditure of ith group
This index reflects the inequality in the distribution of income of the population. It acknowledges
values from zero to 1, of which zero expresses absolute equality and 1 signifies absolute
inequality.
Besides, the research team has also look deeper into the relationship between agricultural income
and income gap to point out crucial role of agricultural in terms of equality issues among
population.
b) Findings
Although the contribution of agriculture in total GDP has been decreased in recent years due to
the boom development of industry and construction but it is still high compared to other countries,
with the rate of nearly 25%.
３９
Table 4.
Agriculture and National Economy in the period 1996-2001
(based on 1994 prices)
Unit: Billion Vietnam Dongs
Indicator
o total GDP
agricultural GDP
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
213,833
231,264
244,596
256,269
273,666
292,376
53,577
55,895
57,866
60,892
63,717
65,497
25.06
24.17
23.66
23.76
23.28
22.40
4.4
4.3
3.5
5.2
4.6
2.8
contribution of
Agricultural sector in
Total GDP (%)
growth rate of
Agricultural GDP (%)
2001
Source: General Statistics Office, Yearbook 2001
In addition, agricultural sector has mobilised a majority of labour force in the country. At present
years, there is a tendency to increase number of labourers to work in non-agricultural sectors like
industry, construction and services but the share of agricultural labour is still relatively high. The
statistical date of Ministry of Labour, Invalids and Social Affairs (MOLISA) shows that about
two thirds of total labour force in the country (24 millions) has been involved in agricultural
activities, meanwhile this number for industry and construction is only 15%.
Table 5.
Labour force in the economic sectors 1996-2001
Unit: Million persons; %
Sector
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
Whole economy
33.98
34.35
34.80
35.68
36.21
37.68
1. Agriculture:+No. of labourers
23.43
22.59
23.02
22.86
22.67
23.65
68.96
65.76
66.14
64.08
62.61
62.76
3.70
4.17
4.05
4.43
4.74
5.43
10.88
12.14
11.64
12.43
13.10
14.42
6.85
7.59
7.73
8.38
8.79
8.60
20.16
22.10
22.22
23.49
24.28
22.82
+Share %
2. Industry & Construction:+No. of
labourers
+Share %
3. Services:+No. of labourers
+Share %
Source: MOLISA, Statistical Data on Labour and Employment 1996-2001
４０
In terms of inequality in income, study on data of Vietnam Living Standard Survey 1997-98 of
General Statistic Office shows that there is a little difference between rural and urban area (see
Table 6).
Table 6.
Inequality in income between urban and rural area *
(indicated by Gini Coefficient of expenditure per capita)
Region/city
Whole country, 61 provinces/cities, Of which:
Gini
Coefficient
0.3625
Hanoi (Capital)
0.3261
HoChiMinh City (Big City)
0.3210
Urban area (includ. Hanoi&HoChiMinh City)
0.3406
Rural area
0.2766
Red River Delta, 11 provinces/cities, Of
which:
0.3487
Urban area (includ. Hanoi)
0.3294
Rural area
0.2384
Northern Mountainous Region
0.2813
Other regions, 50 provinces/cities, Of which:
0.3659
Urban area (includ. HoChiMinh City)
0.3437
Rural area
0.2860
Adapted from Vietnam Living Standard Survey 1997-98
This number for whole Vietnam is 0.3625 whereas it is only 0.2813 for the Northern
Mountainous Region and 0.3487 for Red River Delta. Income of households in the rural area is
less unequal in comparison with that of urban area. The Gini coefficient of rural area is 0.2766
whereas it is 0.3406 for the urban area. However, the study team has also discovered that there
is a tendency to increase Gini coefficient during the years. For example, the Gini coefficient of
Cao Bang has been changed from 0.23434 in 1997-98 to 0.28980 in 2003 and relatively from
0.1615 to 0.2715 for Hoa Binh province, which indicated partly effects of industrialization and
modernization in the country and expresses again the important role of agricultural for rural
viability. Data from survey in the selected provinces showed that more than 60 per cent of
farmers considered that agriculture has created festivals and customs to mobilize commune social
lives, follows by income generation (24.8 per cent) and reservation of cultural customs (nearly 23
per cent).
Agriculture is still main contributor of economic development of surveyed provinces indicating
by the share of its in total GDP. This number for Hoa Binh is 48 per cent, Lao Cai 47 per cent
and Lai Chau is much higher 53 per cent. Most of population of Vietnam are living and earning
*
Urban area includes cities and towns which a certain number of population and level of industry
development; Rural area includes countryside
４１
their lives in the rural area. Percentage of rural population has been changed not much over last
years. More than two thirds (around 75 per cent) of Vietnamese have earned living in rural area
and mainly involving in agricultural activities. This percentage is higher in the study region and
provinces (see Table 7).
Table 7. Proportion of Rural Population from 2001-2003 (%)
Region/Province
Whole country
2001
75.3
2002
74.9
2003
74.2
Northern Mountainous Region
82.8
82.6
82.6
Cao Bang Province
86.4
86.3
86.5
Lai Chau Province
87.6
87.5
86.9
85.8
85.6
85.0
Hoa Binh Province
Adapted from Statistical Yearbook 2004, General Statistics Office
It is true that agriculture is the backbone of local economy and the main income generator of rural
people. In comparison with other regions, nearly 50 per cent of household’s income has come
from agricultural activities (see Table 8). The proportion of agricultural income has been varied
from region to region. Except the Central Highlands, a main cash crop producing area (coffee,
rubber, etc.), the percentage of agricultural income is highest in Northern Mountainous Region,
nearly a half of total annual income. This number is even higher for Lai Chau province (60 per
cent) whereas it is only 11.6 per cent for the industrial region of South East.
Table 8.
Income resources in 2002
Unit: %
Salary &
Region/province
wage
Agriculture
Non-agriculture
Whole country
32.7
28.5
22.6
Red River Delta
33.6
24.9
23.6
Northern Mountainous
24.2
48.9
12.5
Cao Bang Province
21.9
48.3
12.6
Lai Chau Province
21.0
60.0
6.9
Hoa Binh Province
26.0
47.6
11.1
North Central Coast
22.9
37.6
18.7
South Central Coast
34.9
25.8
25.9
Central Highlands
25.1
49.6
16.0
South East
45.4
11.6
25.6
Mekong River Delta
25.0
37.6
23.6
Adapted from Statistical Yearbook 2004, General Statistics Office
Other
16.2
18.0
14.4
17.1
12.1
15.3
20.7
13.4
9.3
17.4
13.8
Data from Vietnam Living Standard Survey has been shown that there is a close relationship
between urban development and inequality in income among people (see below graph).
４２
The gap in income of surveyed households
The poorest
The richest
1600
1400
VND '000
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
en
tr
al
C
oa
st
Ce
nt
ra
lC
Ce
oa
st
nt
ra
lH
ig
hl
an
d
S
ou
M
th
ek
Ea
on
st
g
Ri
ve
rD
el
ta
W
es
t
h
So
ut
h
C
No
rt
h
Ea
s
ta
t
No
rt
h
No
rt
er
D
el
Ri
v
Re
d
W
ho
le
co
un
try
0
Region
A big gap has been found in the South East, Red River and Mekong River Delta, in where the
economic patterns have been changed from agricultural to industrial and services. Due to large
proportion of agriculture in total income, the inequality among households in the Northern
Mountainous Region is less than other areas of the country like South East or Coast Central
Region. Surveyed data from 2004 in the selected provinces has also determined this relationship.
The gap between the richest and the poorest in the selected province varied from 1.6 to 2.6 times
compared to 8.1 times of national average. The graph indicates that the gap of North
Mountainous region is narrower than that of national average or other regions of the country. The
study team has also identified that there is a close relationship between this gap and share of
agricultural income among surveyed households.
Agriculture has contributed to more equality among the surveyed households, which is indicated
that the gap in income is inversely proportional to share of agricultural income (see the below
graph).
４３
Income gap (%)
Relationship between agricultural income and income gap
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
Share of agricultural income (%)
Agriculture has also contributed much to such so-called social function. Sheltering function of
agriculture has been illustrated by growth rate of labour force who are involving in this sector has
been mobilised constantly during the time, especially in the time of the Asian financial crisis.
Number of labourers involving in agriculture has been increased continuously whereas growth
rate of labourers in other sectors such as industry, construction and services has been decreased
sharply. Then, the amount of foreign investment is decreased because a number of investors have
been moved to do business in Vietnam. There is a tendency for the growth rate of service sector
to go down due to limitation of infrastructure like banking system, communication, etc.
４４
Growth rate of labour involving in the economic sectors
Growth Rate (%)
Agriculture
16,00
14,00
12,00
10,00
8,00
6,00
4,00
2,00
0,00
-2,00
-4,00
-6,00
Industry & Construction
Services
12,00
10,00
8,00
6,00
4,00
2,00
0,00
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
-2,00
-4,00
Year
This function can also be indicated by growth rate of GDP in the last decade. Data for growth rate
of GDP of Vietnam in the period 1991-2001 have indicated that agriculture has less affected by
big changes in the world economy compared to other sectors. Industry and construction or service
sector has been affected badly by financial crisis in Asia during second half of 90s. Growth rate
of these sectors has been decreased rapidly meanwhile agriculture has still maintained very well
(see following figure).
Growth rate of economic sectors 1991-2001
16
14
10
(%)
Growth Rate
12
8
6
4
2
Agriculture
Industry & Construction
Services
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Year
４５
3. Environmental Function
a) Methodology
Agriculture, especially paddy farming, provides a variety of environmental functions such as
flood prevention, water retention, soil conservation and bio-diversity. For example, paddy fields
stores the water at the time of heavy rain, and gradually discharge the water into downstream
rivers and surrounding areas, and thereby preventing or mitigating the damage caused by flood.
Water reservation: Paddy fields surrounded by ridges temporarily store water at the time of heavy
rains and gradually discharge it into downstream rivers as well as this ensures adequate water for
irrigation. Because of this reservation rice farmers can save a certain fund for irrigation.
Water volume of paddy field can be estimated as following formula:
Water volume = Area of rice field X Height of water level
However, the paddy field has been flooded during raining season, especially in the flood
diversion zones, paddy fields have a great flood mitigation capacity, which can be specified by
following formula:
K
FMC = ∑ FAi * H i
i =1
Where:
+FMC is flood mitigation capacity.
+K is the number of flood diversion sub- zones in the region.
+ FAi is the flood affected area in ith sub-zone
+ Hi is the height of water level above normal one in ith sub-zone
Flood prevention: Paddy farming in Red River Delta Region, especially in the so-called “flood
diversion zone” has contributed to reducing and preventing damages of flooding to big urban and
economic centres in case of high water flooding. Beside the function to co-ordinate water for
irrigation in paddy farming and other crops this system has built to protect Hanoi from flooding.
In order to specify this contribution, several assumptions have been proposed to simplify
complexity of the issue and lack of information. The value of flood diversion zone is estimated
on the basic of GDP decrease due to flooding:
Value of GDP loss in Hanoi City = (Annual GDP/365) * No. of flooding days
Invisible value of paddy fields contributed to flood diversion zone = Value of GDP loss in Hanoi
City – Budget for flood management in the region.
４６
Budget for flood management includes expenditure for food for affected households, rescue
works, medicines for disease protection, etc. Amount of this kind of budget has been estimated
on the basic of average actual costs of the selected provinces during last 20 years.
b) Findings
The paddy area in Red River Delta is about 6 million ha. Many studies show that the water level
in rice field during the year is 10 cm. The total volume of water reserved in paddy fields in the
region should be 600 million cubic metres. At present rice farmers are paying about 80 Vietnam
Dongs per cubic metre for irrigation fee. Therefore, roughly estimated value of water reservation
will be 600 million m3 X 80 VND/m3 = 48 billion VND for whole Red River Delta region.
The hydrologists and technical experts have been estimated that the flood diversion zone in the
Red River Delta can reserve roughly more than 5 billion cubic metres of water in case there is a
high flood (similar to the historical flood in 1971).
The so-called “flood diversion zone” in Red River is specific measure to protect the City of
Hanoi in case of high level of flooding water in the river. This flood diversion zone has been
legalised by Governmental Regulations for flood diversion of Red River System to protect The
Capital of Hanoi” since July 31 1999. Under the article 4, when the water reservoir of Hoa Binh
and Thac Ba have been used fully but the water level of Red River in Hanoi is still going up
(higher than 13.4m) it is necessary to diverse flood to Day River. In addition, for the security
reasons, it is strongly recommended to use flood delay zones in the upstream areas of Tam Thanh
(Phu Tho province), Lap Thach (Vinh Phuc province) and Luong Phu, Quang Oai (Ha Tay
province).
In general, agricultural activities in this area have been affected by flooding which can be
measured by flooded area, etc. However, it has also contributed another invisible damage that due
to located in the diversion flood area there is a limitation in building bridges or road system for
commodity marketing, difficulties in perennial crop development, etc.
４７
This role of agriculture in the Red River Delta Region will be evaluated as the deference between
benefit of paddy farming in the flood diversion zone and expenses of flood protection in the
region. The benefit of paddy farming should equal to damage, which may cause to Hanoi in the
case of being flooded.
Based on various information and data in the period from 1995 to 2001, average figure has been
estimated as following:
Table 9.
Estimated annual GDP value of paddy field 1995-2001
Unit: Billion Dongs
Number GDP loss Budget for
Estimated GDP Share in
Scenario
of
in Hanoi flood
value
Agri.
flooding City
management in contributed by
GDP of
days
RRD*
paddy field
RRD*
Low
10
652
25
627
1/14
Medium
15
978
25
952
1/10
High
20
1304
25
1278
1/7
Adapted from survey data, 2002
Note: RRD – Red River Delta Region
４８
Therefore, it can be seen that parallel with high amount of GDP that has been produced and
shared by paddy producers, another value has been produced by farmers but shared among the
public.
4. Cultural Function
a) Methodology
Agriculture and rural areas create beautiful landscapes and traditional cultural heritage. They are
often used for tourism attraction and provide rural community with additional income.
Furthermore, they play an important role to enhance the quality of life for those who live in rural
areas. Parallel with the main products such as crops (rice, vegetable, etc.) agriculture and rural
commodities have been created several co-products (landscapes, festivals, dances, folklores,
customs, etc.) which made agriculture and rural societies more valuable and more attractive not
only for foreigners but also for local people to enjoy.
In order to evaluate the contribution of rice terraced field landscapes and rural values in Vietnam,
the study team has chosen Sa Pa district as study site during the second phase of national case
studies.
In the first year, evaluation has been focused mainly on descriptive methods and indirect
substitute methods.
The annual turnover from tourists in Sa Pa can be roughly estimated in following formula:
Annual Turnover from Tourism = Number of Tourists * Duration of Stay (days) * Daily
Expenditure.
Total value of willingness to pay of tourists in Sa Pa for rice-terraced fields as follows:
WTP = Number of visitors * Rate of visitors who are willing to pay * Amount of WTP * Rate of
visitors who will come back due to rice-terraced fields.
In the last 2 years, the case studies in Sa Pa area are focusing on using Choice Modeling method
to estimate cultural function of agriculture and rural values among tourists. A number of 800
tourists have been interviewed using structured questionnaire, of which 500 have been surveyed
in 2005 and 300 in 2006. A questionnaire for tourists has been designed to focus on several
characteristic such as:
Nationality, Frequency of visiting Sa Pa, Visit organization (individual or group), Duration of
visit, Expenditure of the visit, Sex and age group, Satisfaction, Willingness to come again,
Willingness to pay for rice terraces.
And main part of this questionnaire is the choice sets consisting of 6 versions including 27
alternative options for tourists to choose. In order to evaluate seasonality of the agricultural
production, a time of surveying has been also considered into the model.
The Choice Modeling (CM) technique requires tourists to choose only one resource use option
from each of several sets of multiple resource use options. The resulting statistical model predicts
choice behavior as a function of the attributes and labels that identify the different choice sets.
４９
Attributes
Place
Table 10. Attributes and levels used in the CV experiment
Levels
1.Township (Urban area)
2. Township and Paddy Field
3. Township, Paddy Field and Mountainous Area
Ethnic People
1. No seeing
2. Seeing and Communications
3. Seeing, Communications and Dances
Tracking (Walking rurally)
1. No tracking
2. Half day
3. One day
Price
1. $ 50
2. $ 100
3. $ 150
The relationship of these variables can be introduced by assuming that the relationships between
utility and characteristics follows a linear path, and by assuming that the error terms are
distributed according to a double log distribution; the choice probabilities have a convenient
closed-form solution known as the multinomial logit model (MNL). Therefore, the MNL model
generates results for a conditional indirect utility function of the form:
Vij = C + A1X1 + A2X2+... + AnXn + B1Y1 + B2Y2 + ... + BmYm
Where C is the constant term; A1 to An are the vector of coefficient attached to the vector of
attributes (X) that influence utility and B1 to Bm are the vector of coefficient attached to the
vector of personal variables (Y)
The marginal value of a change within a single attribute can be represented as a ratio of
coefficients as following:
WTP =
− Aattribute
Bmoney
This part-worth formula provides effectively the marginal rate of substitution between income
change and the attribute in question
b) Findings
There are several ethnic groups of people are living in the Northern Mountainous Region of
Vietnam such as Dao, Thai, Tay , Nung, Muong or H’Mong people. In principle they are minor
ethnic groups in comparison with Kinh people - a majority in the country. However, their cultural
lives are very rich in terms of traditional clothes; customs, music, etc. Most of these customs and
５０
festivals are related to agricultural practices as well as rural community activities. Participatory
rural assessment in the selected villages showed that more than 73 per cent of farmers considered
these festivals are very meaningful for rural area to stabilize community lives and cultural values.
According to the interviewed households they are very interested of the invisible effect of these
cultural activities to keep their lives happier and prouder as well as to demonstrated their
traditional culture to the tourists although there is some economic revenue from selling souvenir
or handy crafts.
One of the most favorite festivals in the local rural villages is the Long Tong festivals (festival
for new season for rice transplanting). It often happens at the beginning of the year between two
rice crops, right after Tet Holidays (January according to Lunar Calendar). All the people in the
village have been gathered around a rice field to see the demonstration of how to prepare land for
rice transplanting. Draft buffaloes or cattle have been wearing with colorful clothes and be
decorated with flowers. The farmers are wearing traditional dresses and to compete each other for
high quality of land preparation as well as rice transplanting. All of them are full of fun and
expected of future good harvest. Each of their gesture is accompanied with traditional music and
cheering of surrounding spectators. At the end of the day, every family is preparing a feast to
worship Heaven and Earth to pray for the most favorable climate conditions for agricultural
practices.
Other festivals have been organized in different villages during the year such as festival for new
rice to offer to a Taoist deity or one's village God for good harvest. In Phu Tho province, which is
considered for the origin of Viet people, there is the biggest festival in March each year and it
becomes nation-wide recently, for which people from different locations in the country as well as
abroad to come to Hung Temple to make offering to Viet peoples’ ancestors. In these days, a
giant square glutinous rice cake (filled with green bean paste and fat pork wrapping in green
leaves and boiled) has been made in respect of legend for the kind-hearted behavior of the son to
the parents. It is not only the festival of the spirit but also an educational enlightening for people,
especially for young ones.
Sa Pa has been busier and busier over the past ten years and the tourism industry has been
growing fast. In 1990, there was only one place to stay, now about 113 hotels and guesthouses
are available to provide accommodation for tourists during the year. There is a tendency to
increase the number of visitors to Sa Pa over the last 5 years, more than double, especially the
number of foreigners increased very fast, almost 4 times compared to that of the year of 2000
(see Table 11).
５１
Table 11. Number of visitors to Sa Pa 2000-2004
Indicators
Unit: persons
2004
2000
2001
2002
2003
Number of tourists
57,800
78,100
96,680
138,622
149,963
Vietnamese
46,530
63,480
79,620
100,702
106,313
11,270
14,620
17,060
37,920
43,650
Foreigners
Source: District department of Trading, Tourism and Services of Sa Pa, 2004
The data collected among the tourists showed that all the visitors are amazed with the
extraordinary scenery, they feel interested in the local culture and environment, and they
appreciate the contact the have with minorities in their own village. However, motivations for
visiting Sa Pa are different among the tourists. Foreign visitors are interested mostly in scenery,
ethnic minority and trekking, meanwhile climate, scenery and ethnic minority are the first
priorities of domestic tourists.
The length of their stay varies between a weekend and a week. Domestic visitors seem to stay
longer (2.7 days on average) than foreigners (2.3-2.4 days on average) (see Table 12).
Table 12.
Duration of stay in Sa Pa
Tourist
mean
Domestic
2.70
Vietnamese Foreigner
2.26
International Foreigner
2.30
Total
2.45
Source: Survey Data 2004
sd
0.99
0.72
0.58
0.79
se(mean)
0.07
0.12
0.03
0.04
min
1
1
1
1
(days)
max
6
3
4
6
In terms of daily spending in Sa Pa, Vietnamese foreign visitors spent much compared to other
types of tourists. Expenditure included accommodation, souvenir (handicrafts), food,
transportation, entry fees, etc. Domestic visitors spent about 633,500 Vietnam dongs† per day
whereas this number for Vietnamese foreigners is 944,700 Vietnam dongs and for international
foreigners – 731,300 Vietnam dongs (see Table 13).
Table 13.
Daily spending of tourist during stay in Sa Pa
Tourist
Domestic
Vietnamese Foreigner
International Foreigner
Total
†
mean
633.5
944.7
731.3
711.1
sd
394.8
602.2
368.2
407.4
se(mean)
28.9
97.7
22.2
18.2
(thousand Vietnam dongs)
min
max
216.7
1500.0
500.0
2250.0
150.0
2000.0
150.0
2250.0
Vietnam dongs – the national currency; exchange rare is around 16,000 Vietnam dongs = US$ 1.
５２
Source: Survey Data 2004
Therefore, the annual turnover from tourists in Sa Pa can be roughly estimated in following
formula:
Annual Turnover from Tourism = Number of Tourists * Duration of Stay (days) * Daily
Expenditure.
Estimation from surveyed data showed that tourism sector should have contributed to turnover of
more than 275,000 million Vietnam dongs in year 2004.
Surveyed data has also shown that a great majority of interviewed visitors are willing to pay for
the rice-terraced fields (see Table 14).
Table 14. WTP of tourists for rice terraces in Sa Pa
(thousand Vietnam dongs)
Type of tourists
N
mean
sd
se(mean) median min max
Domestic
166/186 32.93
42.59 3.31
15
3
150
Vietnamese foreigners
35/38
22.43
25.22 4.26
15
5
150
International Foreigner
241/276 25.02
32.82 2.11
15
3
150
Overall
442/500 27.79
36.48 1.73
15
3
150
Source: Survey Data 2004
Therefore, the percentage of visitors who are willing to pay for rice-terraced fields is relatively
high: among domestic tourists – 89 percent; among Vietnamese foreigners – 92 percent; among
international foreigners – 87 percent and overall – 88 percent.
On the other hand, the rate of coming back to Sa Pa among visitors because of rice terraced fields
is not so high: 0.37 for the domestic tourists; 0.32 for the Vietnamese foreigners; 0.40 for the
international foreigners and 0.38 for overall.
Based on the data it could estimate total value of willingness to pay of tourists in Sa Pa for
rice-terraced fields as follows:
WTP = Number of visitors * Rate of visitors who are willing to pay * Amount of WTP * Rate of
visitors who will come back due to rice-terraced fields.
Estimated amount is 1,414.6 million Vietnam dongs, which can be identified as intangible value
of rice-terraced fields in Sa Pa area.
Although there is limited number of interviewed visitors, the estimation indicated a great
contribution of rice-terraced fields for development of tourism industry in Sa Pa. During
interviewing, the study team has also realized several factors that affects to the WTP of the
visitors such as time of interviewing, motivations of tourists, etc.
Choice modeling has been estimated based on responses of 800 surveyed tourists during period
of 2005-2006. The estimation procedure was programmed in LIMDEP. The attributes have been
coded in 3 levels: 1, 2 and 3 and the utility functions of the MNL model can be written in the
following formula:
５３
U1=ASC+BPADDY*DPADDY1+BTOWN*DTOWN1+BSEEING*DSEEING1
+BDANCE*DDANCE1+BHALF1*DHALF1+BDAY*DDAY1
+DPRICE*DPRICE1+BSTAY*STAY+BAGE*AGE+BENJOY*ENJOY
+B12*12+B8*Q8+BTIME*TIME
U2=ASC+BPADDY*DPADDY2+BTOWN*DTOWN2+BSEEING*DSEEING2
+BDANCE*DDANCE2+BHALF1*DHALF2+BDAY*DDAY2
+DPRICE*DPRICE2+BSTAY*STAY+BAGE*AGE+BENJOY*ENJOY
+B12*12+B8*Q8+BTIME*TIME
and U3=0
And the target is to optimise:
Opt1*U1+Opt2*U2+Opt3*0-Log(exp(U1) +exp(U2) +exp(U3)
Whereas:
DPADDY1 – Dummy variable for choosing place1=2
DTOWN1 – Dummy variable for choosing place1=1
DPADDY2 – Dummy variable for choosing place2=2
DTOWN2 – Dummy variable for choosing place2=1
DSEEING1 – Dummy variable for choosing people1=2
DDANCE1 – Dummy variable for choosing people1=3
DSEEING2 – Dummy variable for choosing people2=2
DDANCE2 – Dummy variable for choosing people2=3
DSEEING1 – Dummy variable for choosing people1=2
DHALF1 – Dummy variable for choosing track1=2
DDAY1 – Dummy variable for choosing track1=3
DHALF2 – Dummy variable for choosing track2=2
DDAY2 – Dummy variable for choosing track2=3
DPRICE1 – Dummy variable for choosing price1*50
DPRICE2 – Dummy variable for choosing price2*50
STAY – Number of staying days
ENJOY – Level of enjoyment ranking from 1 to 4 (not so much to very much)
TIME- Number of times in Sapa area (first, second, third and more than 3 times)
B8 – gender of tourist (1=male and 2=female)
B12 – coming in Sapa by individuals or group (1 and 2)
５４
Estimation of this model can be seen in the following table:
+--------------------------------------------------------+
| User Defined Optimization
|
| Maximum Likelihood Estimates
|
| Dependent variable
Function |
| Weighting variable
None |
| Number of observations
3693 |
| Iterations completed
25 |
| Log likelihood function
2861.957
|
| Restricted log likelihood
.0000000
|
| Chi squared
5723.914 |
| Degrees of freedom
14 |
| Prob[ChiSqd > value] =
.0000000
|
+-----------------------------------------------------------+
+---------+--------------+----------------+--------+-----+
|Variable | Coefficient | Standard Error |b/St.Er.|P[|Z|>z] |
+---------+--------------+----------------+--------+---------+
ASC
1.504172100
.48167181
3.123
.0018
BPADDY
.2758651552E-01 .69020880E-01
.400
.6894
BTOWN
-.8121126950
.60747484E-01 -13.369
.0000
BSEEING
.7023902246
.60094039E-01
11.688
.0000
BDANCE
.7340526628
.60273629E-01
12.179
.0000
BHALF
.9407788740
.72811166E-01
12.921
.0000
BDAY
1.074931200
.65683082E-01
16.365
.0000
BPRICE
-.9277366964E-02 .66222014E-03 -14.009
.0000
BSTAY
.5136236563E-01 .77536920E-01
.662
.5077
BAGE
.7897214210E-01 .50694686E-01
1.558
.1193
BENJOY
.3114398199
.11861344
2.626
.0086
B12
-.1019481979
.15403434
-.662
.5081
B8
-.1437357499E-01
.14799489
-.097
.9226
BTIME
.8081341333
.32894797
2.457
.0140
(Note: E+nn or E-nn means multiply by 10 to + or -nn power.)
The negative value for the DTOWN indicated that people will go further from the Sapa Township
will gain more satisfaction compared to stay in the town such as paddy field and mountainous
area. It is also shown that the price of this tour (option) really effected to people’s choice. High
price would reduce their enjoyment. This fact would also be supported by other variables such as
DHALF, DDAY or TIME. The more often they come the more they satisfied, especially if they
go further to the remote area they will get more enjoyment. In sum, it can be said that the paddy
terraced fields and rural values somehow has been contributed to the satisfaction of tourists in the
area.
５５
The marginal value of a change within a single attribute can be represented as following:
Attribute
ASC
BPADDY
BTOWN
BSEEING
BDANCE
BHALF
BDAY
Constant
Paddy fields
Township
Seeing ethnic people
Dancing
Half day tracking
One day tracking
WTP (US$)
162.1
2.9
-87.5
75.7
79.1
101.4
115.8
The research team has also tried to run RPL model including other characteristics of surveyed
tourists, which can be written in following formula:
NLOGIT; Lhs=Choice, Nij, SLTij
;Choices=opt1, opt2, opt3
;Model;
U(opt1, opt2)=ASC+BPADDY*DPADDY+BMOUNT*DMOUNT
+BSEEING*DSEEING+BDANCE*DDANCE+DHALF*DHALF
+BDAY*DDAY+BPRICE*DPRICE+BENJOY*DENJOY
+B9*Q9+B11*Q11+B13*Q13+N14*Q14+BSAGE*SAGE
+BSTAY*STAY+B2*Q2+Btime*time+Bvn*vn+Basia*asia+Bjapa*japa
U(opt3)=0
Whereas:
DPADDY – Dummy variable for choosing place=2
DMOUNT – Dummy variable for choosing place=3
DSEEING – Dummy variable for choosing people=2
DDANCE – Dummy variable for choosing people=3
DHALF – Dummy variable for choosing track=2
DDAY – Dummy variable for choosing track=3
DPRICE – Dummy variable for choosing price*50
STAY – Number of staying days
ENJOY – Level of enjoyment ranking from 1 to 4 (not so much to very much)
SAGE – Square of age group
Q9 – age group
Q11 – times of being in Sapa
Q13 – Number of staying days
Q14- Expenditure during stay
Btime – time of visiting (winter=0 and summer=1)
Q2 – willingness to pay for rice terraces
Vn, asia and japa – dummy for nationality of Vietnam, Asia and Japan
Estimation of this model can be seen in the following table:
５６
Discrete choice (multinomial logit) model
| Maximum Likelihood Estimates
|
| Dependent variable
Choice
|
| Weighting variable
None
|
| Number of observations
3693
|
| Iterations completed
30
|
| Log likelihood function
-2851.600
|
| Log-L for Choice
model = -2851.59985
|
| R2=1-LogL/LogL* Log-L fncn R-sqrd RsqAdj |
| No coefficients
-4057.1752 .29715 .29524 |
| Constants only.
Must be computed directly.
|
|
Use NLOGIT ;...; RHS=ONE $ |
| Response data are given as ind. choice.
|
| Number of obs.= 3693, skipped 0 bad obs. |
+-------------------------------------------------------------+
+---------+--------------+----------------+--------+---------+
|Variable
| Coefficient | Standard Error |b/St.Er.| P[|Z|>z] |
+---------+--------------+----------------+--------+---------+
ASC
-.8576873264
.41574962
-2.063
.0391
BPADDY
.8442570428 ........(Fixed Parameter)........
BMOUT
.8140908091 ........(Fixed Parameter)........
BSEEING
.7027051542 ........(Fixed Parameter)........
BDANCE
.7347567580
.88241181E-03 832.669
.0000
BHALF
.9431151708 ........(Fixed Parameter)........
BDAY
1.077496721
.56281350E-02 191.448
.0000
BPRICE
-.9306064191E-02 .64764680E-02
-1.437
.1507
BENJOY
.3408776586 ........(Fixed Parameter)........
B9
.6321339786
.33682357
1.877 .0606
B11
.4262010528 ........(Fixed Parameter)........
B13
.3294428086E-01........(Fixed Parameter)........
B14
.4417035302E-03........(Fixed Parameter)........
BSAGE
-.8988720631E-01........(Fixed Parameter)........
BSTAY
.3294428086E-01........(Fixed Parameter)........
B2
.1666458937 ........(Fixed Parameter)........
BTIME
.1666458937 ........(Fixed Parameter)........
BVN
-.6799010981 ........(Fixed Parameter)........
BASIA
.2955084687 ........(Fixed Parameter)........
BJAPA
.5621199037 ........(Fixed Parameter)........
(Note: E+nn or E-nn means multiply by 10 to + or -nn power.)
Therefore, price has also effected badly for the people’s choice. However, the summer time is
better for tourist to be in Sapa. Among tourists the foreigners have enjoyed much compared to
those who are Vietnamese.
５７
The marginal value of a change within a single attribute can be represented as following:
Attribute
WTP (US$)
ASC
Constant
-92.2
BPADDY
Paddy fields
90.7
BMOUNT
Mountainous area
87.5
BSEEING
Seeing ethnic people
75.5
BDANCE
Dancing
78.9
BHALF
Half day tracking
101.3
BDAY
One day tracking
115.8
Discussion
a) Lessons learnt
Multifunctionality of Agriculture is new concept for the developing country like Vietnam. Taking
part in country case studies on this issue is very useful for research team to introduce new
framework for evaluating of economic externalities, which can be seen as fruitful supports from
ASEAN Secretariat as well as from Japan MAFF side. There are several points which can be
withdrawn from implementing the studies on Multifunctionality of Agriculture.
Firstly, new concept should be introduced gradually and be learnt step by step through carrying
out studies in spot and technically supported by the international experts. Meetings, seminars for
exchange view often are the good tools for capacity building as well as improving quality of
studies.
Secondly, the importance of agriculture differentiates not only from country to country but also
from areas to areas as from time to time. The only thing remained is its multifunctionality. From
its development agriculture has been contributed not only its pure economic values but also its
greater intangible benefits for public at large.
Thirdly, introduction of several methodologies and indicators can enable researchers to evaluate
these externalities of agriculture and rural development. These pure economic and additional
functions contribute to the rural development well balanced with urban area as well as to the
healthy growth of rural communities, which are important factors in the sustainability of a
nation’s overall development. Agriculture contributes to rural viability mainly through the
creation of employment opportunities and income, which permit farming populations to stay on
the land and participate in the economic and social life of rural communities. If the life in rural
areas is attractive for both rural and urban people, it can also lead to the mitigation of urbanising.
When a serious economic crisis occurs, it is often said that an agricultural sector absorbs
excessive labour force in urban areas, and thus it mitigate the formation of the slum and decrease
the crime rate in urban areas. Agriculture plays a role of a buffer, safety net, or economic
stabiliser when a society faces economic recession or exogenous financial shocks. Policy makers
often overlook this socially stabilising role which is called sheltering function. These evaluations
enable policy makers to consider more careful for agricultural and rural development, especially
in the process of economic globalisation
５８
Fourthly, evaluating multifunctionality of agriculture requires not only qualitative but also
quantitative methods which enable to approve for policy considerations.
b) Challenges
Although the concept of Multifunctionality of Agriculture has been developed for the decades it
is still new for the developing countries whereas agricultural sector has been played very crucial
role for economic as well as social development. Their national development plans are focusing
mainly on economic issues for which the external benefits from agricultural and rural
development have often been underestimated. Therefore, introduction of the concept of
multifunctionality of agriculture needs much time and affords, especially for the public
awareness.
Internalisation of these externalities into national or regional policies has been faced with certain
level of difficulties, which has been come from various reasons. Firstly, it comes from the
evaluating itself. Due to lack of data and information the estimation sometimes needs
assumptions which have been reduced convincing facts for the policy makers. Secondly, it comes
from public awareness especially it depends much on spirit of policy makers.
Conclusion
Multifunctionality of agriculture is a complicated issue, which need a comprehensive analytical
work. These are several issues related to the multifuctionality of agriculture. It is a new concept
and is under discussion, especially for internalising of methodologies and methods of evaluation.
Evaluating the contribution of agriculture in general and paddy farming in particular is a difficult
task depending on the methods and tools that can be applied. However, all the estimated values
are illustrated a large contribution of paddy farming especially the intangible ones.
Each country, each area depending on stage of development has different emphasis to be
considered into policy implication. For developing country like Vietnam, food security is still a
crucial factor for economic, political and social stability. Agriculture is the major sector to
generate income, employment for rural population of the country as well as the equality among
people. Rural societies are often interested for not only citizens but also foreigners, which is an
attractive factor to motivate tourists to come to enjoy. Co-production of agriculture such as
terraced rice landscapes, festivals or cultural values is often evaluated much higher in comparison
to the pure economic value of agriculture, especially when the process of industrialization and
modernization is increasingly encouraging. Study on multifunctionality of agriculture in
collaboration with ASEAN Secretariat and MAFF in recent years has identified several
multi-functions of agriculture, which need to be evaluated precisely to enable policy makers to
take considerations for development strategies.
５９
Impacts of FTA within Eastern and Southern Africa Countries
and Unilateral Tariff Elimination by other Regions
Kelali Adhana Tek ‡, Hiroshi Kameyama**, Shoichi Ito***, Yoshihiro Itohara****
Abstract
Free trade between countries and regions has become a common practice and yet there are
imbalances in both trade flow and trade benefits. One such example is agriculture trade between
developed and least developed nations. Developed nations subsidize their farmers and protect
against poor farmers’ commodities from entering their domestic market through various trade
barriers. As a result, developing countries like sub-Saharan Africa are languishing in a balance of
trade deficit. Moreover, the emergences of free trade areas have created new challenges to some
individual countries through preferential erosion and special benefits to countries that joined the
block through trade creation. In sub-Sahara Africa, there are regional trade blocks that actually
are not working on well-established free trade specifications. Therefore, this study attempts to
evaluate the impact of free trade within countries and unilateral or unreciprocated tariff
elimination by others. It employs the standard multi-regional applied general equilibrium model
developed by global trade analysis project (GTAP) and its version six database. Eight countries
from Eastern and Southern Africa and four from the world’s biggest economies were selected for
the analysis along with three main sectors: agriculture, manufacturing, and services. Eighty-seven
countries including the above are aggregated into 16 trading blocks, and the sectors are
disaggregated into 19 sub-sectors with greater emphasis on agriculture. The simulation results
show that within the eight countries, owing to their trading system and economy of scale, welfare
change significantly differs. Terms of trade gains from agricultural commodities, mainly the
sugar sub-sector, contributes a significant amount to the welfare change. Among the eight
countries, Mozambique has better welfare change with US$3.11 million in bilateral import tariff
elimination than from unilateral tariff elimination of the biggest economies, and Botswana shows
US$285.21 million from unilateral tariff elimination. South Africa, as the main trading partner
for most southern African nations, registers a loss of US$3.91 million to the eight countries. In
the unilateral tariff elimination, China and the European Union have better net welfare gains
largely from allocative efficiency than the United States and Japan. Nevertheless, welfare gains
and losses accrued to these biggest economies do not pose any impact on their GDP, household
utilities, and terms of trade change. This signals that unilateral tariff elimination by the biggest
economies to the eight sub-Saharan countries would be a possible scenario and poor countries
should push for such intervention to be taken by developed nations.
Key words: Aggregation, Eastern and Southern Africa, GTAP, Free Trade Area, Sub-Saharan
Africa, Unilateral Tariff Elimination, Welfare Change
*The United graduate school of agricultural sciences, Tottori University, **Kagawa University, ***Kyushu University,,
,
****Yamaguchi University
６０
Introduction
The ultimatum of economic integration between countries is largely a matter of easing
restrictions on trade, apart from other pertinent issues, because easing the restrictions would
enable trade to be free and become a driving force in an economic development1,2,3,4. In essence,
there are three principal requirements that have to be fulfilled in order for free trade between
countries to be operational: the principle of nondiscrimination; an international non-coercion
principle; and a principle of laisser-faire government5,6. Proper functioning of these requirements
yields insights into most import trade and environment cases where countries would be
encouraged to specialize in producing commodities that have comparative advantage without
violating the environment.
Therefore, the ultimate necessity of integration lies in measuring welfare gains and losses from
free trade. The gains and losses may emerge from a number of sources such as specialization;
economy of scale; changes in terms of trade, and changes in efficiency owing to increased
competition7,8,9. In sub-Saharan Africa, amid migration frustration from poor to relatively better
economies and the social economic landscapes each country has, free trade principal merits fall
short of serving as a practical guide in integrating the region’s economy10,11. Nonetheless,
countries have been striving hard for the realization of regional trade integration.
Despite integration problems, most countries in the region could not penetrate the international
market and take advantage of it due to trade barriers. Exports in the region are largely agricultural
commodities and agriculture is the most protected and subsidized sector in the western developed
nations. Numerous negotiations on agricultural trade have often been stalled due to the inflexible
position of those countries, and future breakthroughs are left uncertain. However, there are a few
initiatives from the west to make their markets accessible for Africa’s agricultural commodities
free of import tariffs. The initiatives are not inclusive of all agricultural commodities but applied
only to a few predefined commodities.
Thus, in this research we introduced the concept of unilateral or unreciprocated tariff elimination
by developed economies to all exports from eight selected subs-Saharan countries (Botswana,
Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe, hereafter AF8)
and free trade within those countries to determine welfare changes.
Conceptual Framework and Aggregation Description
Conceptual Framework
The concept of free trade has been well-debated over decades, though, as yet, there are no
indisputable agreements. Abolishing uncompetitive practices such as production subsidies,
dumping, and removing market-access restrictions harmful to producers in poor countries are the
core tenets of free trade between countries or regions. Removal of these barriers would especially
improve agricultural trade competitiveness, and producers in developing countries would get
incentives to produce more as prices increase. Nevertheless, market-distorting trade policies
continue to be widespread and adversely affect global agricultural markets as negotiations on
agricultural trade continue to be unsure of defeating the trade barriers in this longstanding battle.
Thus, in the face of such distortions, it is quite hard for poor sub-Saharan countries, where
more than two-thirds of their exports are primary products, to compete and succeed in the global
markets12,13. On the contrary, developed nations, instead of addressing the salient features of
agricultural trade fairly and squarely and deep liberalization in their own backyards, simply
demand deep liberalization in developing countries through trade policy reform that has been a
central plank of donor-supported structural adjustment programs in developing countries for the
61
past twenty years. On the other hand, developing nations sought to have a fair market access for
their products.
In the face of tariff-reduction refusal, it would be hard to conceive of complete and
unreciprocated tariff removal, which is contrary to the consent of developed nations. But under
the agreement of special initiatives galvanized by the developed west to open up their domestic
markets for limited agricultural products from poor countries, it is vital to further extend the idea
to all agricultural products and evaluate the effect. This is the basic assumption set behind the
unilateral tariff elimination, and such tariff elimination is not a common trend except for very few
agricultural commodities under special conditions.
The standard multi-regional applied general equilibrium model GTAP14,15,16 and its version 6
database were used in the analysis. The model deals with static equilibrium and it employs
equivalent variation (EV) as a monetary measure of gains and losses to trade due to trade policy
reform. EV uses the money metric utility function where by regional household consumers face a
price before introduction of policy reform, and a new utility after policy change under that initial
price17,18,8. Then, EV change is simply defined as the difference between the expenditure required
to obtain the new level of utility at initial prices and the initial expenditure. The welfare effects of
such variation changes are mainly decomposed into allocative efficiency, terms of trade, and
insurances and savings19. Even though, EV is used in this study, compensation variation (CV),
and compensation surplus (CS) can be used to measure welfare changes as well. The three are
equal only under quasi-linear preferences. Otherwise, the relationship among the three remains in
order of: EV<change in CS<CV20.
Region Aggregation
In an attempt to comprehend the effect of free trade and unilateral tariff elimination on welfare
change, regional aggregation is necessary. The aggregation was basically carried out with the
premise of the impact that the aggregation would bring to each aggregated region and country
with respect to the two concepts. That is, selection for aggregation was anchored in the role each
free trade region or country would induce on the welfare change of the AF8. In the aggregation,
we took into account that European countries as traditional trading partners of most African
countries, United States and Japan as good trading partners and world biggest economies, China
and India as emerging economies, and South Africa as a regional economic player in sub-Saharan
Africa. This aggregation doesn’t mean that other countries have no established trading system
with the eight African countries. The authors are interested in testing the unilateral tariff
elimination with the biggest economies, which is more likely to be practical than with other
developing countries.
Most AF8 countries, with the exception of Botswana better economy, rely on agriculture as
their source of livelihood for their larger rural communities. Then, unilateral tariff elimination for
these countries agricultural commodities would initialize the momentum of replication to other
countries if our results are robust. In addition to the above aggregation, Southern African
development community, and Southern Africa customs union member countries were aggregated
as the rest of sub-Saharan Africa. The aggregation was done as follows:
1. United States, Canada and Mexico (NAFTA)
2. European Union (EU15)
3. Japan (JPN)
4. China (CHN)
5. India (IND)
62
4. Malawi (MWI)
5. Botswana (BWA)
6. Zambia (ZMB)
8. Zimbabwe (ZWE)
9. Mozambique (MOZ)
10. Tanzania (TZA)
11. Madagascar (MDG)
12. Uganda (UGA)
13. Rest of Sub-Saharan Africa (R_SSA)
14. South Africa (ZAF)
15. Rest of World (ROW
Sector Aggregation
Tradable commodities in the database are aggregated into three main sectors: Food
(Agriculture), Manufacture, and Service. To fit the purpose of the analysis, the main sectors were
further disaggregated into sub-sectors. Carrying out such processes enable one to discern the
contribution of commodities individually and collectively. With respect to commodity export in
most sub-Saharan Africa, agriculture comes first as an important sector. Then, the agriculture
sector was disaggregated into nine sub-sectors, and the aggregations were set to be limited to
manageable size as follows:
1. Cereal grains not elsewhere classified (GRO).
2. Wheat (Wht)
3. Vegetables, fruit, nuts (V_F)
4. Crops not elsewhere classified (OCR)
5. Animal products not elsewhere classified (OAP).
6. Oil seed (OSD)
7. Sugar (SGR)
8. Plant-based fibers (PBF)
9. Rest of food (R_Food)
10. Textile (TEX)
11. Petroleum, coal products (P_C)
12. Chemical, rubber, plastic products (CRP)
13. Motor vehicle and parts (MVH)
14. Transport equipment not elsewhere classified (OTN)
15. Manufacturing not elsewhere classified (OME)
16. Communication (CMN)
17. Public Admin., Defense, Education, Health (OSG)
18. Shoe and other manufactures (R-Mnfcs)
19. Rest of service and activities not elsewhere classified (R_ Svces).
Experimental Design
Six simulation experiments were carried out: five experiments based on unilateral tariff
elimination and, one experiment based on bilateral tariff elimination. In the experiments, unlike
China that has recently speeded up its commodities flows with Africa, India was excluded, taking
into account the insignificant agricultural export-import commodities flow from AF8 to India
vis-à-vis India. South Africa was treated with the rest of sub-Saharan Africa because some of the
AF8 countries do not export more than they import. The experiments are synonymously called
scenarios in the results and discussion section. Accordingly, the experiments were:
a)
AF8 with EU15 [EU]
63
b)
AF8 with Japan [JAPAN]
c)
AF8 with NAFTA [NAFTA]
d)
AF8 with China [CHINA]
e)
AF with R_SSA [R_SSA]
f)
AF8 with AF8 [AF8]
Results and Discussion
The welfare measures of impact of a policy change are the focus of applied equilibrium models
and such impact is often measured by using the equivalent variation9. The ratio of the equivalent
variation to the expenditure function valued at the benchmark prices and income provides the
same information as the equivalent variation because both are positive if household welfare
increases8. In the GTAP model, economic welfare is represented as being derived from the
allocation of national income between private consumption, government consumption, and
savings14, and how much better off a policy change actually makes a country or region depends
on what the change does to its national income16. The impact does not essentially lead countries
or regions to have equi-proportional increases in economic wellbeing.
The results in Table 1 show that both bilateral and unilateral tariff eliminations in each scenario
have different impacts. Each country’s economy of scale contributes to such differences. For
instance, Botswana, a country with a sound economy in the region, has larger EV changes in
contrast to others with a weak economy. All simulation results, except Zambia, in the Japan
scenario, are positive, hinting that the impact of policy reform is in favor of the eight countries.
Table 1. Equivalent Variation Change (US$ Million)
b) Developing nations
a) Developed nations
FTA/Country
EU
JPN NAFTA FTA/Country
CHN R_SSA
NAFTA
-12.01
-1.8
-44.62 NAFTA
-2.69
-2.61
EU
145.42
-4.38
-52.49 EU
-11.67 -11.23
JPN
-6.19
-1.35
-7.13 JPN
-0.55
-2.73
CHN
-1.36
-0.8
-7.51 CHN
26.2
-2.29
IND
-2.44
-0.23
-4.39 IND
-0.51
-2.3
MWI
12.33
0.1
21.84 MWI
0.21
-0.22
BWA
117.36
6.62
146.72 BWA
14.51
12.29
ZMB
1.29
-0.08
0.02 ZMB
1.35
5.14
ZWE
29.26
5.23
7.66 ZWE
28.59
6.87
MOZ
0.44
0.32
1.38 MOZ
0.44
0.77
TAN
4.81
0.19
2.06 TAN
1.17
15.91
MDG
1.01
0.21
37.52 MDG
0.58
0.16
UGA
0.43
0.04
0.3 UGA
0.39
11.77
R_SSA
-5.01
0.15
1.39 R_SSA
0.29
-1.04
ZAF
0.1
0.07
0.39 ZAF
-0.28
-2.22
ROW
-11.39
-2.88
-21.41 ROW
-17.67
-5.37
AF8
-2.62
-9.26
-1.35
-0.8
-0.85
2.86
24.3
0.6
6.55
3.11
4.82
0.02
1.67
-0.73
-3.91
-4.73
In five of the scenarios, Botswana has greater gains than the rest, but in the China scenario, the
changes are lower than that of Zimbabwe by half. This particular result reflects an interesting
situation concerning Zimbabwe’s trade partnership. The gain from the China scenario is four
64
times bigger than the gains from NAFTA, and almost equal to that from the EU. Similar results
in Zambia demonstrate the countries tendency of leaning towards the east rather than to the west,
their traditional partner. China is the newly emerged economic partner to some sub-Saharan
countries and substantial debates are underway in different international and regional forums
about whether such a relationship has mutual benefit and understanding, or unanticipated
consequences because China’s imports from sub-Saharan Africa are more of the raw materials.
For instance in 2002, bilateral trade between Zimbabwe and China was US$191 million, of which
US$159 million was China’s imports.
In the R_SSA scenario, where the aggregated countries in this group are from southern Africa,
it is Tanzania and Uganda from eastern Africa that have better gains unlike the southern Africa
countries with weak economies. These two countries together with Kenya have enhanced trade
flows across their borders than with other countries in sub-Saharan Africa in an attempt to step up
the establishment of the east African community common market. Nonetheless, the results show
free trade deals with the other six countries would be to their advantage. In this scenario,
Madagascar shows the least because she has free trade deals with most of these countries. For the
same reason, Madagascar has the least gain from the AF8 scenario as well, while Mozambique
has uniquely greater gain, than in the remaining five scenarios because it has no free trade deal
with most of these countries. Mozambique depends heavily for its imports on South Africa, and
South Africa as the main trading partner to most southern Africa countries, has losses greater
than in R_SSA scenario.
The welfare gains from policy reform are mainly decomposed into component gains as
allocative efficiency, terms of trade, and investment and savings. Table 2 shows that most welfare
gains for the eight sub-Saharan countries are from terms of trade and this reveals how much
better it would be if these countries got fair market access for their agricultural commodities
dominated exports. From the biggest economies, unreciprocated tariff elimination cases, the EU
and China in their respective scenarios, show a positive allocative efficiency change. This shows
that whenever countries avoid their pre-existing trade distortion through policy reform they
would be better off than with distortions and inefficient allocation of resources21. In policy
reforms, with regard to farm subsidy and tariff reduction for agricultural commodities, countries
and regions with strong a economy refuse to accept such deals, and poor countries who rely on
agricultural commodities export suffer a lot. The simulation results in the EU and NAFTA
scenarios clearly show this phenomena, from where gains and losses as a result of trade policy
reforms come from.
Policy-induced welfare gains can have different impact on different households within a country
since the composition of expenditure may differ with income levels, and composition of income
may vary by household type16. Welfare decomposition for a representative household is used
assuming that all households are identical. Then, welfare gains and losses from policy reform
have diverse effects depending on each country’s economy of scale and the role of agriculture in
the economy (Table 3). In Malawi and Tanzania, where the share of agriculture to GDP remains
respectively as high as 36 % and 43 %, then, the small welfare changes, as a result of bilateral
and unilateral tariff elimination, have a greater contribution as compared to Botswana. In all of
the six scenarios, Botswana gains a larger proportion than the other seven countries, but the
contribution to GDP is minimal because agriculture’s contribution to GDP is close to 2.4 %.
Similar implications hold for household utility and terms of trade changes. Specifically, these
results clearly justify the reason why poor countries are insisting on tariff reduction for
agricultural commodities. The small change in trade gains because of the policy reform has
65
relatively greater impact especially for countries whose population lives on less than a dollar a
day.
Table 2. Decomposition of the welfare effect (US$ million)
a) EU
b) JAPAN
AE
TOT
IS
Total
AE TOT
IS
FTA/Country
FTA
-0.3
-0.9
-1.0
NAFTA
-3.7
-6.5 -1.8 -12.0 NAFTA
-1.3
-3.2
0.1
EU
248.0 -104.0
1.6 145.4 EU
0.8
-2.5
0.3
JPN
-1.2
-6.1
1.1
-6.2 JPN
-0.2
-1.1
0.4
CHN
-1.2
-1.3
1.1
-1.4 CHN
-0.1
-0.2
0.0
IND
-0.3
-2.2
0.1
-2.4 IND
0.0
0.1
0.0
MWI
3.7
8.9 -0.3
12.3 MWI
2.1
4.6
0.0
BWA
32.4
85.5 -0.6 117.4 BWA
0.1
-0.1
0.0
ZMB
-0.3
1.8 -0.2
1.3 ZMB
1.0
4.8
-1.0
ZWE
2.2
30.3 -3.2
29.3 ZWE
0.1
0.2
0.0
MOZ
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.4 MOZ
0.0
0.1
0.0
TAN
0.8
2.9
1.1
4.8 TAN
0.0
0.2
0.0
MDG
0.0
0.8
0.2
1.0 MDG
0.0
0.0
0.0
UGA
0.0
0.3
0.2
0.4 UGA
0.0
0.1
0.0
R_SSA
-0.6
-4.0 -0.4
-5.0 R_SSA
0.0
0.2
0.0
ZAF
-0.8
2.0 -1.1
0.1 ZAF
-0.8
-2.4
0.3
ROW
-4.6
-8.9
2.1 -11.4 ROW
1.4
0.0
0.0
Total
274.0
0.0
0.0 274.0 Total
c) NAFTA
d) R_SSA
AE TOT
IS Total FTA
AE TOT
IS
FTA
NAFTA
NAFTA
37.9 -62.5 -20.1 -44.6
-0.5
0.4 -2.5
EU
-11.0 -43.2
1.6 -52.5 EU
1.2 -12.0 -0.9
JPN
-0.5
-9.9
3.2
-7.1 JPN
-0.3
-1.9 -0.5
CHN
-3.6
-8.4
4.5
-7.5 CHN
-0.6
-1.7
0.0
IND
-1.1
-3.4
0.2
-4.4 IND
-0.8
-1.4 -0.1
MWI
4.6
17.6
-0.4
21.8 MWI
0.0
-0.2
0.0
BWA
48.4
98.9
-0.6 146.7 BWA
4.3
8.1 -0.1
ZMB
0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.0 ZMB
-0.2
5.6 -0.3
ZWE
1.0
7.4
-0.7
7.7 ZWE
0.5
7.1 -0.7
MOZ
0.4
0.9
0.1
1.4 MOZ
0.1
0.6
0.0
TAN
0.4
1.3
0.4
2.1 TAN
3.1
9.7
3.1
MDG
6.7
23.1
7.7
37.5 MDG
0.0
0.1
0.0
UGA
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.3 UGA
1.0
6.6
4.1
R_SSA
1.3
-0.1
0.1
1.4 R_SSA
16.9 -16.0 -1.7
ZAF
-1.0
2.2
-0.9
0.4 ZAF
-0.6
-1.8
0.1
ROW
-2.1 -23.7
4.5 -21.4 ROW
-1.1
-3.7 -0.6
Total
81.4
0.0
0.0
81.4 Total
22.9
0.0
0.0
66
Total
-1.8
-4.4
-1.4
-0.8
-0.2
0.1
6.6
-0.1
5.2
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.2
0.1
-2.9
1.4
Total
-2.6
-11.2
-2.7
-2.3
-2.3
-0.2
12.3
5.1
6.9
0.8
15.9
0.2
11.8
-1.0
-2.2
-5.4
22.9
e) CHINA
FTA
f) AF8
AE TOT
IS
Total
AE TOT
IS Total FTA
NAFTA
0.0
-1.9 -0.9
-2.7 NAFTA
-0.2 -1.3
-1.1
-2.6
EU
-2.0 -10.2
0.5 -11.7 EU
-1.0 -8.1
-0.2
-9.3
JPN
0.1
-1.5
0.9
-0.5 JPN
-0.2 -1.2
0.1
-1.3
CHN
33.7
-7.2 -0.2
26.2 CHN
-0.2 -0.8
0.2
-0.8
IND
0.1
-0.7
0.1
-0.5 IND
-0.1 -0.7
0.0
-0.8
MWI
0.2
0.0
0.0
0.2 MWI
2.7
0.1
0.0
2.9
BWA
5.4
9.2 -0.1
14.5 BWA
14.1 10.2
-0.1
24.3
ZMB
0.4
1.0 -0.1
1.3 ZMB
0.7 -0.1
0.0
0.6
ZWE
2.1 28.4 -1.9
28.6 ZWE
2.0
5.1
-0.5
6.6
MOZ
0.1
0.3
0.0
0.4 MOZ
0.5
2.4
0.1
3.1
TAN
0.3
0.7
0.2
1.2 TAN
2.9
1.7
0.3
4.8
MDG
0.0
0.4
0.1
0.6 MDG
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
UGA
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.4 UGA
0.4
0.8
0.5
1.7
R_SSA
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.3 R_SSA
-0.3 -0.4
-0.1
-0.7
ZAF
-0.1
0.3 -0.5
-0.3 ZAF
-0.8 -3.6
0.5
-3.9
ROW
-0.1 -19.1
1.6 -17.7 ROW
-0.8 -4.2
0.2
-4.7
Total
40.3
0.0
0.0
40.3 Total
19.7
0.0
0.0
19.7
(AE: allocative efficiency, TOT: terms of trade, and IS: insurance and savings)
However, despite the fact that the gains are positive, in both assumptions for the eight countries,
they are far less than anticipated, especially in the AF8 scenario. Such small changes reveal two
things: 1) the volume of exports within the eight countries is small because of the similarity in
export commodities, or 2) import tariffs are high and tariff elimination might reduce the revenue.
Potential revenue losses from intra-common market for eastern and southern Africa (COMESA),
of which five of the eight countries are members, are low owing to the low level of intra-regional
trade flows11. That is, there could be bigger losses if the trade flow were large enough. Kenya is
mentioned as a case in the study where government revenue from EU imports constitutes 10% of
its total revenue. In the eastern Africa region, Kenya is considered as a more liberalized country,
as compared to the others, and revenue losses for less liberalized countries could be large.
Nevertheless, COMESA is better off with free trade22 and countries that prefer to enter into
free trade must adjust their revenue losses before they join free trade. Free trade by its nature is
based on the comparative advantage a country has while trading with others and a country
should make sure of these advantages during the process of opening up its domestic market to
foreign commodities. In some respects, short-run difficulties could challenge the continuity of
the free movement of goods and services across borders and anticipated benefits, as well. If the
short-run difficulties induce unprecedented impacts, member countries will be forced to quit
their membership (e.g. Tanzania from COMESA in 2002)
67
Table 3. Effect of welfare change
a) Real gross domestic products change (precent)
EU
JPN NAFTA CHN R_SSA
FTA
NAFTA
0
0
EU
0
0
JPN
0
0
CHN
0
0
IND
0
0
MWI
0.21
0
BWA
0.02
0
ZMB
-0.01
0
ZWE
0.02 0.01
MOZ
0
0
TZA
0.01
0
MDG
0
0
UGA
0
0
R_SSA
0
0
ZAF
0
0
ROW
0
0
b) Household untility change (percent)
AF8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.26 0.01
0 0.16
0.03
0
0 0.01
0 0.01 -0.01 0.02
0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02
0.01
0
0 0.01
0
0 0.03 0.03
0.15
0
0
0
0
0 0.02 0.01
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Country
NAFTA
EU
JPN
CHN
IND
MWI
BWA
ZMB
ZWE
MOZ
TZA
MDG
UGA
R_SSA
ZAF
ROW
c) Terms of trade change (percent)
EU
JPN NAFTA
FTA
NAFTA
EU
JPN
CHN
IND
MWI
BWA
ZMB
ZWE
MOZ
TZA
MDG
UGA
R_SSA
ZAF
ROW
EU
0
0
0
0
0
0.79
0.07
0.04
0.37
0.01
0.05
0.02
0.01
0
0
0
CHN
JPN NAFTA
0
0
0
0
0
0.01
0
0
0.07
0.01
0
0.01
0
0
0
0
R_SSA
0
0
0
0
0
1.4
0.09
0
0.1
0.04
0.02
0.89
0.01
0
0
0
CHN
R_SSA
AF8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0.01 -0.01 0.18
0.01 0.01 0.01
0.04 0.16 0.02
0.36 0.09 0.08
0.01 0.02 0.09
0.01 0.18 0.05
0.01
0
0
0.01 0.22 0.03
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
AF8
0
0 -0.01
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0 -0.01
0
0
0
1.31 0.01 2.59
0 -0.03 0.02
0.2 0.01 0.23 0.02 0.02 0.02
0.1 -0.01 -0.01 0.06 0.36 -0.01
1.31 0.21 0.32 1.24 0.31 0.22
0.02 0.02 0.07 0.03 0.04 0.19
0.2 0.01 0.09 0.05 0.65 0.11
0.07 0.02 2.27 0.04 0.01
0
0.04
0 0.02 0.03 0.85
0.1
-0.01
0
0
0 -0.03
0
0
0
0
0 -0.01 -0.01
0
0
0
0
0
0
(Results are rounded off to the nearest two decimal places)
Apart from gains to trade, trade liberalization would reinforce peace and stability between
countries. Because peace and stability have been a major setback in the sub-Saharan countries,
68
integrating them under the umbrella of a free trade area would ensure the strength in promoting
and nurturing peace and stability along with trade flows. Moreover, it tends to boost economic
growth and contribute towards poverty reduction on the average in the long-run23,24 whilst
short-run losses from free trade could occur because of preferential erosion, institutional
restructuring and other trade related adjustment costs25.
In this study, the agriculture sector in both assumptions has contributed a bigger portion for the
welfare gain in the sub-Saharan Africa countries case. This is, a further evidence of their
agricultural commodity dominated exports. In the global market competition, poor countries have
often failed to gain market access in the presence of highly subsidized and low priced products
from developed countries. Because developed nations, like the EU countries, provide relatively
high import protection for their own declining agriculture sector and low protection for
manufacturing26. The sugar sub-sector is a sensitive commodity in both developed and poor
countries. For instance, the EU produces sugar at two to three times the world price and keeps
imports from developing countries out by levying high tariffs. This depicts that EU producers
couldn’t compete with poor country producers that produce sugar at a much lower cost.
Therefore, subsidies and tariffs would continue to be an instrument of protection rather than
allowing free and fair trade competition among producers. In sub-Saharan Africa, sugar is a
labor-intensive sub-sector that employs many poor people and in our simulation analysis, it
contributes the lion-share to welfare gain for countries where sugar is among the top five export
commodities. According to the data used for our analysis, the tax levied on sugar imports from
the eight countries by EU is: Zimbabwe (116%), Zambia (97.8%), Malawi (96.2%), Tanzania
(96%), Madagascar (94%), Mozambique (21.4%), Botswana (6%), and Uganda (0%), and by
NAFTA respectively: 28.6%, 0%, 24.2%, 0%, 0%, 24.2%, 1.7%, and 0%. The EU levied much
less tax on Botswana’s sugar and no tax on Uganda’s sugar because Botswana and Uganda aren’t
sugar exporters, but importers. On the other hand, the EU levied 42% import tax on Botswana’s
meat and veal, and 70.6% import tax on Zimbabwean commodities aggregated as Rest of Food
(R_Food) because these two are the most exported commodities by Botswana and Zimbabwe.
From the other disaggregated sub-sectors, textile contributes to the welfare gain of Botswana and
Madagascar. However, the other non-agriculture sectors have no contribution to welfare gains or
losses at all in both assumptions. It is true that the AF8 countries have no manufacturing and
service sectors that would be exported to developed countries. Even among themselves, no such
trading exists. Rather, each country barely depends on the developed nations manufacturing
products and services. That is why poor countries are asking developed ones to cut their farm
support systems and eliminate their import tariffs on poor countries’ agricultural products.
Conclusion
Agriculture sector is the livelihood of most sub-Saharan Africa countries and policy change
would help countries to embrace agriculture driven development. The study highlights welfare
gains to be made from such policy changes in both the developed and developing countries.
Especially, the unilateral tariff elimination addresses the impact to be borne in the developed and
developing nations’ economies. The total welfare losses to developed nations have no significant
effect on their economy, but the gains matter a great deal to the poor countries economy.
A similar phenomenon is observed in bilateral tariff elimination among the eight countries.
Even though, the volume of trade flow and the limited diversity of export commodities restrict
the gains, the results truly indicate that regional free trade would have added advantages to each
country. Among the eight countries, some of them have already experienced the benefit of low
69
import tariff rates because they have a common market or customs union, but there is no common
market or customs union inclusive of all the eight countries
The results validate our assumption that developed countries should extend further from the
free import of a few agricultural commodities to all agricultural commodities. If the poor
countries get such an opportunity, it would initiate an incentive and competition among producers
for better prices and ultimately achieve their food-security. Therefore, developed countries should
make broad policy reforms that would allow poor countries to export their agricultural products
free of import tariffs and, on the other hand, poor countries must reform their agricultural policy
to comply with product efficiency rules and quality standards in order to consistently satisfy
developed nation domestic market demands.
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71
Would Aid-for-Trade be an Axiomatic Orthodoxy?
Lessons from Africa ODA
Kelali Adhana Tekle *, Yoshihito Itohara**, Hiroshi Kameyama***
Introduction
Brief Review
Aid orthodoxy can be described as a comprehensive vision to alleviate poverty
through measures designed to curb the economic dilemma of developing countries
via common sense humanitarian policies such as economic packages proposed by the
donor community to all recipient countries of the global society or less persuasively
as a demand-driven intervention. In whatever sense it is viewed, the main purpose
of aid has been to offer change in a society through a normative economic process
based on positive economic realities on the ground.
To achieve this grand objective,
wealthier nations have for decades been providing such aid to economically
developing nations with a goal of creating long-term sustainable economic growth.
Since 1990s, however, this classic philosophy of aid for development has been caught
in the crossfire of debate among traditionalists and those advocating new approaches
to aid.
Likewise, it has been among the most criticized issues on the globe because
of its heterogeneous norms, modalities, channeling system, and the arguably fruitless
outcomes the process has brought to many recipient countries.
A study carried out by Burnside and Dollar (2000) which examined the relationship
between foreign aid, economic policies, and growth of per capita Gross Domestic
Product (GDP) using 1970 to 1993 data showed that aid had a positive impact on
growth in developing countries with good, fiscal, monetary, and trade policies.
However, in countries with poor policies, aid had no positive effect on growth.
Easterly et.al (2003) conducted a follow-up study to verify the conclusion drawn by
Burnside and Dollar on aid effectiveness using additional data (1990-1997); this
study does not argue that aid is ineffective, nor opposes the work of Burnside and
Dollar. But they conclude simply that more research in the area is needed before any
concrete conclusion can be drawn.
*
The UGS of Agricultural Sciences, Tottori University, ** Faculty of Agriculture, Yamaguchi University,
Faculty of Agriculture, Kagawa University
***
72
Collier and Dehn (2001), however, criticize the analysis and findings of Burnside
and Dollar on aid-growth relationship and Collier and Dollar’s (1999)
poverty-efficient allocation of aid across countries, arguing that it is non-inclusive of
sensitive sample choice and shocks, more specifically for sample period and trade
shocks. Similar comments forwarded by Hansen and Tarp (2001), and Guillaumont
and Chauvet (2001) state that discarding outlier by Burnside and Dollar in their
regression analysis and omission of negative trade shocks by Collier and Dollar may
exaggerate the effect of a recipient nation’s economic policies on aid effectiveness.
Case studies on terms of trade shocks collected by Collier and Gunning (1999)
conclude that negative shocks have substantial adverse effects on economic growth.
Collier and Dehn also find that for 56 developing countries receiving aid from 1970
to 1993, negative terms of trade shocks had the most long-term effects on output, and
conclude that if shocks are omitted from analysis of development aid impact, the
results could be potentially flawed. Nevertheless, depending on their nature and type,
such shocks could play a role in deteriorating or improving the macroeconomic
policies of a given country.
In cases when macroeconomic policy deteriorates during shocks, the conclusion
that aid is more effective in nations with better macroeconomic policy is potentially
spurious. Policy might simply be a proxy of the effects of shocks, while aid might be
effective only in ameliorating the effects of such shocks. Burnside and Dollar (2000)
incorporated shocks in the analysis of aid and economic growth relationship
following the approaches of Deaton and Miller (1995), where shocks are measured by
an index of export prices. However, prices themselves are dictated by policy
interventions and this does not necessarily allow for pure analysis of export price
indices. But it is only a measurement means for shocks. Guillaumont et.al (1999) and
Dehn and Gilbert (1999) argue that aid is more effective in countries prone to severe
external shocks.
Burnside and Dollar (2000) study is often regard as both influential and
controversial in aid for development research and they, including the above-cited
studies, used data from 1970 to mid 1990s. In these years, many developing countries,
African nations particularly, were not yet practicing the principle of an open economy.
Specially, in the 1970s and 1980s there were civil wars in different parts of
73
sub-Saharan Africa and aid was spent mainly on humanitarian assistance and some
policy design. Thus, in these years it was hard to talk of good and bad economic
policies and to consider such policies in foreign aid effectiveness on growth.
Optimism and Reproach
In recent decade, despite huge amount of aid flow and continued debates on its
effectiveness and distribution, many nations have made little or no economic progress,
especially in the sub-Saharan Africa. The disparities in income and service provision
between developing and developed nations are much wider that ever before. The
resurgence of old epidemics and emergency of new ones are seriously alarming in
poor nations. All the while trade-borne difficulties have joined these episodes.
Collectively, these have provoked long and bitter controversy among advocates and
opponents of trade liberalization, and would most likely continue to be point of
contention in the future.
Meanwhile, bold initiatives seeking to address these challenges were undertaken at
an increasing rate, especially since mid 1990s. The social summit convened in
Copenhagen in 1995 agreed that each member country should formulate a program to
eradicate extreme poverty, monitor and measure progress against some agreed targets
and adjust policy accordingly. Likewise, Organization Economic Cooperation for
Development (OECD) donors meeting in the 1996 affirmed their intentions to
support and monitor progress towards poverty-reduction targets. The World Bank, the
United Nations Development Program (UNDP), and Development Assistance
Committee (DAC) of OECD placed emphasis on taking concerted action and
reducing poverty at an accelerated rate to achieve global target of halving poverty by
2015. Another initiative, the integrated framework for trade-related technical
assistance to LCDs, commonly known as the “Integrated Framework” (IF) was
created by six multi-lateral institutions (International Monetary Fund (IMF),
International Trade Centre (ITC), United Nations Conference on Trade and
Development (UNCTAD), UNDP, World Bank and the World Trade Organization
(WTO)) in 1997 with two broad objectives: 1) to mainstream trade into national
development strategies such as the World Bank Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers
(PRSPs), and 2) to coordinate trade-related aid.
74
Nevertheless, despite these grandiose gestures and their failures to achieve outset
objectives in short runs, the United Nations (UN) with its subsidiary institutions and
other donor agencies has continued nurturing policy ideas in a more egalitarian
approach. These approaches intend collectively to address the pressing needs of the
poor by proposing new arrangements and interventions aiming at curtailing the
challenges and reducing the burdens hampering development of poor nations. The
enhanced aid package was one of the interventions designed to reduce
socio-economic burdens of recipient countries. Yet, certainty of reaching these goals
seems far off. The reasons for such failure and uncertainties have largely associated
with the nature, scope, and complexity of the problems. Indeed, donors have been
blamed for not living up to their promises. Out of the twenty-two OECD member
countries, only five countries (Denmark, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, and
Sweden) have achieved the 0.70 percent ODA of their Gross National Income, GNI
(http://www.oecd.org). In light of these perspectives, it seems hard to conceive that
aid has brought demonstrated benefits as anticipated to the poor and will bring in the
short-run unless both donor and recipient nations put some groundbreaking
implementation strategies in place comprehensively.
Therefore, the points of departure for this aid for trade study are partly the
controversies about aid for development and mainly the Hong Kong ministerial
conference, convened in December 2005. The conference produced a resolution, itself
an extension of Zanzibar Declaration (2001), to help developing countries,
particularly LDCs, “to build the supply-capacity and trade-related infrastructure that
they need to assist them to implement and benefit from WTO agreements and more
broadly to expand their trade.” There are, however, arguments as whether aid for
trade is a consoled prize for the failed Doha Development Agenda (DDA)
implementation or if aid is simply an exclusive right for the poor. Some also argue
that aid for trade will face the same conditionality like that of aid for development
and might not bring the desired outcome. The arguments circulating in the academia
and public sphere about aid for trade are just beginning.
The Hong Kong conference gave the mandate to the WTO secretary general to set
up a task force that would provide recommendations to the general council by July
2006 “on how aid for trade might contribute to the development dimension of the
75
DDA.” The task force in its report made no clear recommendations about how much
aid is a needed in short term and medium term; or priority areas within the trade
sector, or obligations of any party to execute the program. The task force’s
recommendation simply highlights “good practice of delivery” that is in support of
Paris Declaration (2005) on aid effectiveness.
Then, given these arguments, we have come to think whether aid for trade is an
axiomatic orthodoxy from aid history perspective. In this study, we try to highlight
the lessons of aid for development and shade light on the prospect of aid for trade
with respect to African and selected Sub-Saharan countries, taking into account their
overall ODA.
Methodological Framework
Foreign aid capacity to accelerate economic growth is contingent up on the
absorptive capacity of aid recipients (Chenery and Strout, 1966). The capacity to
make use of external resources depends on several factors such as the existing
infrastructure, the available skilled labor, and institutional and administrative capacity
of national and local governments (Moreira, 2005). In Africa, these factors are still
growth impediments. Hence, the role of foreign aid in the continent and in other poor
countries follows the simple logic of new development economics, where
development is generated by investment and investment is determined by the amount
of savings, and the amount of savings is determined by per capita income. Since poor
countries have low-incomes and accordingly low savings, they are in a vicious circle
of poverty (Erixon, 2003). Therefore, the simple logic is that investment financed by
foreign aid will dissolve the vicious circle and connect poor countries to the virtuous
circle of productivity and economic growth.
To examine contribution of foreign aid along with exports and imports to each
country’s real per capita GDP, we employed the classic income expenditure model of
an open economy. The model is specified as follows:
Y = Pc + G
c
(1)
+ I + X − M
Where Y is real per capita GDP, Pc private consumption, Gc government
consumption, I investment, X exports, and M imports
Equation (1) is transformed into
(2)
Yi t = β 0 + β 1 Ai t + β 2 X i t − β 3 M i t + ε it
76
Ceteris paribus, A real per capita ODA, X per capita exports and M per capita
imports of a county indexed by i and time t and
ε
denotes the error term.
Given the chronicles and mechanisms of foreign aid flow to Africa, in this study,
we used non-quantitative factors represented by dummy variables. The dummies are
assigned for both the intercept and slopes (Equation 3).
Y i t = β 0 + β 1 Ai t + β 2 X i t − β 3 M i t + β 4 d i + β 5 d i Ai t + β 6 d i X i t + β 7 d i M i t + ε it
(3)
The non-quantitative factor represented by dummy variable affects both the
intercept and all the coefficients of the regressors. To reflect the effect of the
non-quantitative factor on the intercept, the dummy variable should be included in the
additive form, while they should be included in multiplicative form on the slopes
(Equation 4).
Y i t = β 0 + β 4 + ( β 1 + β 5 ) Ai t + ( β 2 + β 6 ) X
it
− (β 3 − β 7 )M
it
(4)
+ ε it
Then, the value of the endogenous variable is conditioned to each category as
follows:
( Y i t / d i = 1) = β 0 + β 4 + ( β 1 + β 5 ) Ai t + ( β 2 + β 6 ) X i t − ( β 3 − β 7 ) M
(Y i t / d i = 0 ) = β 0 + β 1 Ai t + β 2 X i t − β 3 M
it
it
+ ε it
+ ε it
(5)
In regressors contribution analysis of this type, multi-collinearity could be a
problem. To avoid such problem, we used a statistical software package
(statworks/V3.0E, developed by Japanese Union of Scientists and Engineers, JUSE)
that has a built-in system that checks for multi-collinearity.
Data Source
Official development assistance is channeled to recipient countries through
multilateral and bilateral mechanisms. The two mechanisms have their own sets of
criteria that a recipient country must fulfill in major policy areas and sector specific
policies in order to be eligible for assistance. Nonetheless, both have similar grand
objective: to promote sector-based developments that ultimately achieves all-round
economic developments by improving the livelihood of the recipient nation. The
assistance goes directly to each developing country. But to address country specific
needs and for special consideration, World Bank classifies developing countries
every year according to their Gross National Income (GNI) level. According to 2006
the classification, Highly Indebted Poor Countries, HIPCs (US$ 905 or less), Other
Low Income Countries, OLICS (US$ 905 or less), Low Middle Income Countries,
77
LMICs (US$ 906-3,595), and Upper Middle Income Countries, UMICs
(3,596-11,116); and regionally like Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), Middle East (ME),
Far East Asia (FEA), and others. Other donor governments and agencies also adopted
this classification.
In the case of HIPCs, the countries are low income and highly indebted. We
selected seven SSA countries (Ethiopia, Madagascar, Mozambique, Rwanda,
Tanzania, and Uganda) from HIPCs and Kenya from OLICs, and Africa as continent.
Most Africa countries and particularly the seven countries have been considered as
ODA dependent and, they are presumed to be future recipient of aid for trade as well.
The main data sources for this study are the IMF-International Financial Statistics
(IFS), World Bank and the OECD-DAC databases. The exports data are free on board
(fob) and imports data cost of insurance and freight (cif). The data are from early
period of dependency 1971 to 2005, and classified into four scenarios. These
scanarios partly coincide with trade rounds (Figure 1).
The first, 1971 to 1986, where the Tokyo round of trade talks (1973 to 1979) that
deals with tariff and non-tariff measures. The second, 1987 to 1994, Uruguay trade
round that deals with tariffs, non-tariff measures, rules, services, intellectual property,
dispute settlements, textiles, agriculture, creation of WTO, etc. The third, 1995 to
2000, begins with the establishment of WTO. The fourth, 2001 to 2005, DDA, deals
with among others agricultural subsidy reduction. As can be seen from the figure,
each of the four periods demonstrates stark differences in aid flow.
78
Kenya
Madagascar
Mozambique
Tanzania
Uganda
Africa
SSA
9
I
II
HIPCs
IV
III
8
Uruguay
Round
7
Rwanda
40
35
Doha
Roun
WTO
30
6
25
Tokyo
Round
5
Billion
Billion
Ethiopia
20
4
15
3
2005
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
1979
0
1977
5
0
1975
1
1973
10
1971
2
Source: OECD.Stat
Figure 1 Official Development Assistance 1971 to 2005
Results and Discussion
Economic growth differs enormously from country to country and from region to
region. The basic reasons for such difference are the resources that countries have and
the conditions they are in. Similarly, ODA impact differs across countries and regions
depending on the conditions they face. Its effectiveness depends on whether a country
is in post conflict situation, structurally vulnerable, including those undergoing
external trade shocks, frequent environmental catastrophes, or in a stable situation.
Africa as a whole and the countries included in this study has been in different
socioeconomic conditions in the last post independence decades. Analysis results
reflect these prevailing conditions in each country. The results are presented in three
clusters: Africa, inclusive of countries in North and South of Sahara, land locked
countries (Ethiopia, Rwanda, and Uganda) and Countries with port access (Kenya,
Madagascar, Mozambique, and Tanzania). The reason for classifying the countries as
landlocked and port access is simply to discern the implication of assistance
committed by donors for landlocked countries as compared to countries with port
access and their export-import performances.
Africa Economic development and welfare promotion of the continent has been too
slow as compared to her counterparts, Asia and Latin American. As opposed to
Africa, Asia and Latin America have relatively conducive environment and policy
options to attract Foreign Direct investment (FDI) and for smooth ODA flow. While
in Africa, on one-hand different colonial and donor interests and on the other hand,
the socio-political unrests have dictated ODA flow. As to the differential treatment
and conditionality by donors, there have been a growing number of critics from wide
array of institutions and recipient countries. Then, the so-called policy reform
programs were initiated in 1990s to replace the tied aid allocation conditionality
system. Despite the initiative, ODA hasn’t increased rather declined from US$ 25.07
billion to US$ 15.49 billion and per capita from US$ 39.7 to US$ 15.4 from 1990 to
79
2000. Table 1 shows that ODA contribution to per capita GDP follows similar trend
to that of ODA flow.
Table 1. Variables Contribution to per capita GDP-Africa
β0
Category
1971-86 (I)
1987-94 (II)
64.588*
-1.847
β4
-1.102
823.759** 245.405
(12.67)
441.499
1995-00 (III)
26.123
(4.167)
1971-05
Note:
**
210.496**
(6.19)
-30.545
ODA
14.428**
-4.63
[0.256]
8.174**
β5
-0.442
4.701
(5.89)
[0.106]
-0.605
(-0.468)
[0.255]
5.147**
(3.88)
[0.568]
Exports
0.853*
-1.81
[0.335]
-0.457
β6
0.053
0.468
[0.107]
0.682
(2.855)
[0.738]
-0.299
(-0.612)
[0.193]
[0.165]
2.858**
-1.727
(-0.779)
0.835
Imports
-1.938**
(-3.360)
β7
0.052
Adj.R2
0.961
1.678
0.973
0.504
0.702
0.33
0.879
(5.750)**
[0.244]
-1.456
0.191
0.311
(-1.463)
[0.275]
-3.011
(-5.293)**
[0.159]
Significant at 1%t, * significant at 5%, t-statistics in Parenthesis, and
tolerance value in Brackets
Actual ODA flow has steadily increased from early 1970s to mid 1990s (first and
second scenarios) and it shows significant contribution to per capital GDP. Likewise,
when ODA declined in the third scenario its contribution becomes insignificant and
imports contribution demonstrates similar trend to that of ODA. Nevertheless,
contribution from exports is significant only in the first scenario.
The interaction between aid flow policy from donors as substitute of investment
and recipients’ policy in translating into deeds has been complex situation in Africa
for two arguable reasons. First, donors have had tight aid conditionality and second,
recipient countries have had limited capacity to efficiently use ODA as growth engine.
As a result, countries have become aid dependent and net importers and most
sub-Saharan countries have turned into HIPCs. Besides the aid orthodoxy and limited
capacity, protracted civil conflicts have added for countries to be highly indebted.
In the fourth scenario, we find strong correlation between regressors variables and
the respondent variable due to the recent parallel growth in ODA, exports, and
imports flows. Then, analysis results are excluded due to multi-collinearity effect. To
show the overall impact of ODA we have included a fifth scenario (1971 to 2005)
and we find that contribution of the three variables is significant. Classification the
observation years into scenarios clearly depicts that contribution of each variable
when the continent was in different socio-political dynamics. Dummy variables
(represented by natural and manmade catastrophes) contribution is found to be
positive in most scenarios for all the regressors.
80
Landlocked Countries
Several studies on foreign aid effect to developing countries argue that foreign aid
adds to domestic savings and increasing the savings rate increases marginal product
capital, which is the basic concept of Harrod-Domar model of growth. Then,
considering foreign aid as an additive to domestic savings, it would cause an increase
in economic growth. However, others stressed on the negative effect of foreign aid on
economic growth and domestic savings of the recipient countries. Arguing that
causality runs from foreign aid to domestic saving and based on the negative
correlation found in their econometric estimates, they conclude that the effect of aid
on savings is negative.
Our conceptual framework is similar to the above as we stated it in methodology
section. The analysis results in Table 2 show that ODA impact as foreign investment
has differed across the scenarios and across countries. Contributions of ODA, Exports
and imports are significant in the first scenario in Ethiopian and Rwanda, and only
ODA in Uganda. Contribution of ODA in Ethiopia and Uganda is significant during
early years of civil war but dummy variable contribution is positive in Ethiopia and
negative in Uganda. This signals that ODA during the civil war in Ethiopia has
helped in improving their GDP than in Uganda. While on the contrary, the results
show that exports in Ethiopia is affected by the war. However, the positive
contribution of ODA during the civil conflicts in Ethiopia and Uganda does lead us to
the conclusion of Devarajan et.al (1998) that countries with mediocre policies have
received more aid than with good policies because most ODA during civil conflicts
was spent for humanitarian purposes, rather than a proxy for good policies.
In comparison to the rest five countries, Ethiopia and Uganda were the least
recipient of ODA ((less than US$ 10.0) up until mid 1980s and even in recent years.
Above all, the three landlocked countries have the least per capital export as
compared to the four that have port access, and their per capita export is ten-times
lower than Africa’s average. Besides, the ratio of imports (cif) to exports (fob) on
average from 1995 to 2004 was respectively 12.7 %, 7.3 %, and 22.3 % for Ethiopia,
Rwanda, and Uganda. This directly indicates that export-import performance is
strongly linked with port access. Despite the pledges by donors to these landlocked
countries actual export-import performance has declined below that of 1980s.
81
The over all regression results (1971 to 2005) show that ODA contribution is
significant only in Ethiopia, and exports in Ethiopia and Uganda. Exports
contribution in these two countries is negatively affected by prevalence manmade and
natural disasters. While in years when the countries entered into post-conflict
rehabilitation, (scenario III in Ethiopia and Rwanda and scenario II in Uganda), ODA
contribution is insignificant. In these years, the countries demanded for more ODA
but it sharply declined and its coefficients turned to be negative indicating negative
correlation with GDP. This is partly the reason why foreign aid has been tied to
policy reforms rather than policy that were not yet on use to be used as variable in
evaluating its role on economic growth by Burnside and Dollar (2000). The policy
variable was empirically rejected for its subjectivity by both Dalgaard and Hansen
(2001), Hansen, and Tarp (2001).Then, proneness of a country to natural and
manmade disasters does not necessary mean that they have positive role on the
contribution of ODA to GDP as we have seen in the case of the three countries.
82
Table 2 ODA, Exports and Imports Contribution
to per capita GDP-Landlocked
Scenario
E
T
H
I
O
P
I
A
β0
β4
1971-86 (I)
34.806**
1987-94 (II)
136.167
0.927
(5.721)
β5
3.505**
0.144
(5.701)
[0.203]
-54.936
(1.937)
-0.49
84.35
(-0.173)
6.023
(1.99)
28.739*
-2.864
34.85*
3.985**
(1.548)
[0.222]
0.345
-0.262
432.737*
54.624
(2.676)
A
-2.042*
-0.609
1995-00 (III)
159.934*
(7.229)
A
-2.418
(-1.933)
[0.180]
(0.316)
152.027**
-27.397
5.174*
-72.855
-345.1
5.192
207.487**
(33.957)
(11.666)
-2.185
-0.542
1.640*
0.924
0.865
-4.485**
0.697
0.806
-1.443
-1.346
0.474
-1.484
-0.948
0.902
0.793*
0.194
0.999
0.012
0.448
(12.063)
[0.833]
0.317
-1.83
[0.334]
-0.249
(52.928)
[0.645]
173.362**
5.165**
0.768
(-1.525)
[0.366]
-1.373
-1.026
[0.493]
-3.363
(1.227)
(3.471)
D
A
0.205*
3.531
0.924
(-0.534)
[0.162]
9.774
-0.178
[0.272]
1.148
(1.206)
(1.407)
74.547
1.849
0.675
(-5.750)
[0.239]
-0.7
-0.99
[0.151
1.954
(0.407)
(1.435)
(-0.543)
1971-05
-7.832
(-0.336)
0.791
0.68
[0.343]
-4.85
(0.660)
[0.122]
N
-1.794
[0.104]
0.178
0.029
(-0.966)
(-4.937)
0.26
0.702
[0.101]
-3.769
(6.659)
2.756
-1.939
(-2.221)
(-2.659)
[0.279]
1995-00 (III)
[0.166]
-3.037*
-1.129
G
A
0.181
[0.123]
(2.912)
1987-94 (II)
0.98*
0.454
75.119**
Adj. R2
0.973
(1.390)
(-4.700)
[0.545]
1971-86 (I)
-12.209
0.257
[0.111]
(3.870)
U
-4.221
[0.176]
-0.828
0.123
(-0.286)
[0.741]
(-0.497)
[0.286]
1971-05
-3.363
-0.687
119.535*
D
2001-05 (IV)
-1.682
[0.288]
3.694*
β7
[0.338]
-0.273
[0.138]
-1.63
(-2.057)
16.493
3.486*
-1.636**
(-0.314)
(1.644)
[0.123]
N
0.907
Imports
(-3.182)
[0.122]
-8.376
(1.420)
[0.103]
1987-94 (II)
-6.818
(0.36)
[0.433]
(0.093)
W
β6
-0.093
[0.234]
-0.222
(4.851)
-0.499
1.865*
(-1.266)
(-0.124)
[0.278]
(1.751)
1971-86 (I)
-0.18
Exports
(1.906)
[0.373]
1.837
[0.581]
1995-00 (III)
1971-05
R
ODA
[0.715]
-0.715
-1.222**
(-0.869)
(1.880)
(-2.535)
[0.480]
[0.508]
[0.492]
Note: **Significant at 1%, *significant at 5%, t-statistics in
Parenthesis, and tolerance values in Brackets. Scenario
Countries with Port Access
The four port access countries have better per capita exports as compared to the
landlocked ones. However, contribution of ODA to GDP demonstrates similar pattern
to landlocked countries, particularly in scenario I (Table 3). Except in Madagascar
similar to Rwanda and Uganda in Table 2, the dummy variables show a positive sign.
This does mean that during early period of independency, though prevalence of
disasters or shocks were common, ODA’s contribution is better. Exports’
contribution shows the same trend to that of ODA.
83
Table 3 ODA, Exports and Imports Contribution to per capita
GDP-Port access
K
E
N
Y
A
Scenario
1971-86 (I)
M
O
Z
A
M
B
I
Q
U
E
T
A
N
Z
A
N
I
A
β4
-6.212
1987-94 (II)
179.77 -164.86
(0.430)
1995-00 (III)
195.2* 43.972
(4.467)
95.129**
(2.796)
6.522
1971-86 (I)
19.488
(0.7590
9.053
1987-94 (II)
258.498**
(10.125)
26.673
1995-00 (III)
320.305**
(11.906)
2001-05 (IV)
255.297*
(2.648)
1971-05
M
A
D
A
G
A
S
C
A
R
β0
43.117**
(3.562)
ODA
6.134**
(10.974)
[0.503]
-5.692
(-1.204)
[0.1380]
-8.882**
(-8.072)
[0.544]
1.701*
(2.425)
[0.254]
5.516**
(8.600)
β5
0.008
-2.664
-5.018
0.051
-0.191
[0.686]
1971-05
201.184** 194.962
(6.684)
1980-86 (I)
136.163* -31.304
(2.109)
1984-94 (II)
169.087* -105.73
(2.573)
1995-00 (III)
1980-05
-728.7* -1081.4
(-2.763)
413.95** -29.915
(5.288)
1971-86 (I)
139.894*
(2.881)
1987-94 (II)
271.936* 86.947
(4.807)
-4.409
1995-00 (III)
314.46 -202.54
(0.7060
1971-05
34.123 -26.974
(0.746)
-0.534
(-0.959)
[0.864]
-0.776
(-2.324)
[0.624]
-1.634
(-0.807)
[0.278]
-1.135
(-0.410)
[0.709]
17.814**
(10.709)
[0.374]
-0.331
(-0.558)
[0.34]
7.066
(2.565)
[0.128]
-2.07**
(-2.870)
[0.607]
5.608**
(2.024)
[0.108]
-0.993
(-1.096)
[0.450]
9.868
(0.780)
[0.251]
2.339*
(1.897)
[0.481]
Exports
β6
1.566** 0.129
(3.873)
[0.230]
-4.95 0.418
(-1.297)
[0.436]
-1.66 -1.495
(-2.270)
[0.254]
0.361 -0.079
(0.374)
[0.107]
3.929** -0.218
(3.968)
[0.452]
-0.196
-0.161
0.601
1.085
9.839
0.531
-0.378
-1.271
6.477
-0.109
-1.939*
(-2.624)
[0.960]
Imports
β7
Adj. R2
-0.848** 0.041
0.98
(-2.979)
[0.187]
-6.98 -2.659
0.56
(-1.509)
[0.113]
-3.491* -0.842
0.937
(-5.420)*
[0.337]
-1.962** 0.002
0.693
(3.491)
[0.701]
-0.397 -0.059
0.956
(-0.753)
[0.103]
-0.393
6.224
(4.332)
[0.108]
1.061
(0.451)
[0.675]
0.058 -0.572
(0.062)
[0.325]
17.271** 2.348
(4.727)
[0.107]
1.188 -5.178
(0.196)
[0.353]
11.147* 8.958
(4.358)
[0.102]
3.162* 1.114
(1.841)
[0.162]
0.24
-2.184
(-0.771)
[0.313]
-2.184* -0.039
(-1.969)
[0.499]
-5.907 0.526
(-2.105)
[0.339]
6.012** 1.324
(2.935)
[0.467]
-0.744*
(-2.165)
[0.761]
0.582
0.874
6.202
(4.608)
[0.107]
-0.277
(-0.118)
[0.225]
-1.35 -0.008
(-1.380)
[0.298]
6.337** 0.685
(3.883)
[0.109]
0.159 -0.776
(0.120)
[0.42]
-4.416 -4.981
(-0.943)
[0.203]
2.259 0.793
0.785
(1.215)
[0.166]
-0.029
(-0.019)
[0201]
0.362
0.508
0.244
0.963
0.717
0.856
0.489
-0.07
0.766
0.534
(0.700)
[0.569]
5.294* -0.173
(3.695)
[0.715]
0.734 0.308
(0.493)
[0.339]
0.64
0.886
0.396
Note: ** Significant at 1% level, *Significant at 5% level,
t-statistics in Parenthesis, and tolerance value in Brackets
In the second and third scenarios, contributions of ODA, exports, and imports differ
remarkably, because the countries have entered into different socio-economic
conditions For instance, Kenya’s economy has declined in the second scenario and in
1997 (third scenario), the IMF suspended Kenya's Enhanced Structural Adjustment
Program (ESAP) due to the government's failure to maintain reforms and curb
corruption. Besides, the country was hit hard by severe droughts. In Tanzania,
Severine (1997) and Erixon (2003) reveal the negative image of foreign aid. From
mid 1980s to end of 1990s, port access countries’ GDP growth declined significantly
84
and the same was true in landlocked countries as well, excluding Uganda as good
policy reformer by Devarajan et.al (1998). Scenarios II and III were the most critical
years for most eastern
Africa nations. In these years, the region in general and some countries in
particular entered into a defining moment in their history and later in 1990s into
rehabilitation phase which they demand huge help. However, ODA flow has declined
continuously up until 2001.
Similar to the case in Africa and landlocked countries, fourth scenario results are
excluded from Table 3. In port access countries despite better per capita exports than
landlocked ones, dummy variables effect in most scenarios is positive. Nevertheless,
in Madagascar except in the first scenario, we find the results as unsatisfactory to be
fit with the model we used. Even in the 1971 to 2005, the three variables contribution
to Madagascar’s per capita GDP is insignificant and we couldn’t get a reasonable
justification why this happened. As to the rest three, 1971 to 2005 results show that
ODA contribution in Kenya and Tanzania is significant and positive while in
Mozambique it is negative. In Mozambique unlike the rest six countries ODA per
capita has increased from US$ 13.87 in 1980 to US$ 64.97 in 2005 by bigger but
GDP has continuously declined from US$ 365.3 to US$ 139.99 in 1990 and revived
in 2005 to US$ 328.45. Such correlation results in negative contribution.
85
Generally, the clustered results in their respective scenarios show distinctive
contribution of the variables. Before mid 1980s, countries’ per capita GDP was better
than 1980s to 1990s as there has been good production in agriculture. Then, decline in
per capital GDP and increase in per capita ODA has induced in the continent aid
dependency syndrome than to be a growth stimulant.
Lessons Learned
Trade policy reform has been a central plank of donor-supported structural programs in
developing countries for the past 20 years in addition to other support programs in the
early years of independence, based largely on a country’s political alignment.
Traditionally, the structural adjustment has been based on the pursuit of openness
through liberalizing markets assuming that competition and comparative advantages
promote more efficient resource allocation, growth, and poverty reduction. Large
cross-country aggregate studies, most usually conducted by these same donors, have
tended to support these theories. Even still, most poor sub-Saharan Africa countries’
trade performances in the past decades have seen a negative decline. Complementary
and mitigating measures have often been promoted in parallel to safeguard vulnerable
groups but have failed many of the outstanding issues. The lessons drawn from the
analysis and reviews of aid for trade are structured as follows.
5.1 Aid Policy Approaches
Helping countries to generate the economic necessities for development is a prime role
of assistance. Although there have been many more failures than success over the past
few decades, assistance itself is a learning process that continually evolves, and adjusts.
Often, blames for failure is attributed to bad governance along and international trade
distortions. Never the less, to politicians of the developing world improving governance
is an end in itself, not simply a means of coaxing additional assistance from the
international community. Moreover, developing countries often regarded assistance as
most important and urgent when the population lives in a poor government. Then, it
could be argued, LDCs, in many instances have been coerced to accept policies and
strategies that were not consistent with their domestic needs for the sake of aid-related
programs and, as a result, assistance couldn’t achieve its ultimate objectives (1980s and
1990s)
When assistance flow steady increased from mid 1980s to the 1990s, per capita GDP
didn’t grow proportionally, rather, it declined in most of the countries. In these periods,
not all the failures might be attributed to bad governance in recipient countries but also
86
to wide range of problems including the socio-political instability. However, donor
community might have had their own stakes both in the big failures and in few
successes of aid due to in large part to their unorthodox way of channeling aid and
monitoring failure as the studies by Devarajan et.al (1998) and Burnside and Dollar
(2000) indicate.
The world was busy with enormous agreements and initiatives in the 1980s and
1990s aiming at helping the poor nations escape abject poverty. However, assistance
approaches in these years were blamed for their non-recipient-driven nature. Lately,
after going nowhere in bring the desired outcomes, donor communities have come to
recognize the need for an approach that would make both parties mutually accountable
through aid harmonization, and help increase the effectiveness of aid as new
development through these approaches. Nonetheless, it shouldn’t have taken decades for
the donor community to acknowledge the role of recipient-driven assistance. The
relative progresses that have been made in the past few years in African economic
development (see World Bank, 2006). In light of the recent achievements in LDCs,
PRSPs have played a vital role though it is not yet free of challenges.
Effective aid supports institutional development and policy reforms that are at the
heart of successful development, though institutions are not borne from the will of aid
but from the needs that nations deserve to see fulfilled. Evaluations of existing
trade-related technical assistance programs have highlighted serious weaknesses,
including; unsystematic or incomplete needs assessments; fragmented technical
assistance interventions with insufficient correlation with broaden development
programs; policy reforms and weak links to poverty reduction. On one hand, good
policy genuinely matters for growth, but there are compelling reasons to be concerned
with the role and effectiveness of foreign aid in development. Because the boundary
between aid policy advocacy and policy research is not always clearly delineated and
over years, we have seen many shifts of direction and emphasis on the policy reforms
and lending emanating from the World Bank (Tarp, 2003). On the other hand, aid
should supplement forward progress, not drive it entirely.
Therefore, changing the landscape of trade policy to one that ensures fairness across
the board in conjunction with a less conditional aid policy could open a path to more
effective aid for trade, not as a substitute for development assistance, but as an
important complement. Trade policy should also collectively reflect the state of trade
flux and the challenges, and must respond to both environments that have changed
radically as well as new intellectual currents, that is rapid innovations and trade
impediments should get their representation.
87
5.2 Critiques of Aid policies
Hardly anyone opposes the idea of developed countries assisting developing ones; but
there should be no link between aid and countries’ positions. Even so, donor nations
consistently use their aid budget to pressure developing countries to move closer their
own trade and other negotiating positions (Smaller, 2006). In this case, aid for trade
might increase the risk of such pressure, and more victim means less sympathy and few
intervention, people naively express this view to address that aid has done less than the
pledges and commitments.
The plight of poor and their increasing marginalization in the multilateral trading
system must be ceased. This might be doable if the international community believed
that improving the life of the marginalized poor means improving the ability of
developed nations too and live up to their commitment of each pledge and initiative.
That is, the declarations and agreements that embody all commitments to eliminate
poverty should translate into definitive action, and urgently, if the global community
wishes to have fair and balanced economic growth that would aid both developed and
developing nations alike.
The world economy is more integrated than never before, which in spirit is an
outcome of globalization based on the tenet of multi-lateralism. This nature of trade that
has caused industrial countries to believe that economic development without trade is
inconceivable. Regrettably, however, rich countries have practiced trade without fair
trade rules under which both developed and developing nations could have reasonable
share of international flow benefits. On the other hand, extending such trade benefits to
each participating country would have accrued to benefits via the sensible basis in
international trade. But trade facilitation forums seemed systematically biased towards
developed nations.
Although some developing countries have chosen to distance themselves from being
key players in the global trade arena, most have ventured to test the benefits and
disadvantages of global interdependence by opening their markets to international
commodities. However, many have come to argue that aid for trade simply fills all the
imbalances created due to trade barriers imposed by rich nations and other trade-born
difficulties. The arguments continue to spearhead the aid debate and the chances of
change seem uncertain.
In case of Africa, it is quite hard to understand whether the elites espousing free
trade language dominate the political typology of sub-Saharan Africa or by groups that
oppose it; neither camp has been able to hold the upper ground. Many believe that aid
88
has remained a sensitive issue, since to propagate new ideas in such infant democracies
is an up hill battle because of the vocabulary of political discourse; but relatively
speaking, current development in sub-Saharan Africa has witness a better off scenario,
particularly in social infrastructure, despite the continued socio-economic and political
problems each nation faces. Given, these factors, further examination of aid for trade
policies is a must in determining their potential for contribution to the continued
development of these economies.
5.3. Aid for trade
Trade can be one of the most effective engines of economic growth, as it has been to
most developed nations but only if divisive issues are genuinely and unequivocally
addressed. Africa producers, like others in the poor countries, remain, however, cut off
from international markets because they cannot compete with heavily subsidized goods
produced in the developed world. As a result, subsidy agricultural prices have declined
since 1980s. Moreover, many Africa nations lack the basic infrastructure that would
link local, regional, and international markets, as well as the expertise needed to
participate in global negotiations. Opening up rich countries' markets to poor nations
could help lift millions out of poverty. However, market access is not enough; more
must also be done to support countries in developing their trade capacity.
Regrettably, many rhetoric speeches have since early 1980s though 1990s often
reiterated lack of capacity building. Yet, they roll around the same issue without marked
changes over the decades (see Bonaglia and Fukasaku, 2002). The justifications for
such failure have been tied up with policy directions on both sides. Surprisingly,
however, LDCs have had trouble in capturing the benefits of more open trade. In those
countries institutions both government and private often lack infrastructure capacity to
compete effectively in an increasingly competitive global markets and to take full
advantage of the opportunities provided through international trade.
In this regard, the poor countries need freestanding assistance program from being
enmeshed into conditions that would play an active role in building a broad-base
capacity in the poor countries that are being victims of international trade benefits. Yet,
no guarantee whether aid for trade is going to be immune from the problems aid for
development has encountered. Because the previous version of aid for trade (IF) has
identified itself that the main problem lies in poor implementation at the country level,
lack of financial and human resources, low levels of implementation, disjointed
governance structures, inadequate donor responses and very weak country ownership.
89
Then, aid for trade to play an active and decisive role in the frontline of economic
development must be scrutinized along with those trade policy regimes that sub-Saharan
countries have and ought to have. This scrutiny might induce to mutually reinforcing
components that Africans deserve: demand driven assistance and country context based
trade policy reform.
Aid for trade has the potential axiomatically to galvanize trade policy reforms, which
remain the epicenter of the Doha development agenda, where the ministerial declaration
endorsed the IF as a viable model for LDCs’ trade development a framework designed
to build the capacity and participation LDCs in an international trade by adjusting the
necessary requirements. In other words, it can be seen as valid path for development.
The conventional wisdom is that, aid for trade must be problem focused and
solution-oriented on trade development issues. Otherwise, it may well fail before it is
fully implemented.
Developed and developing countries have differing views on what packages aid for
trade should encompass. African countries argue that building supply-capacity and
trade-related infrastructure should include activities such as improving the productive
capacity of competitiveness of agriculture and manufacturing sectors, building roads to
link local, regional and international markets, and supporting the development of small
and medium enterprises besides to adjustment losses due to trade liberalization. The
African countries essentially stick to the principles of the Hong Kong ministerial
declaration, paragraph 57 by reiterating that aid for trade should not be subjected to
conditions placed on recipient nations.
The other LDCs member countries deal with windows of opportunities that aid for
trade could seize, such increasing market access and lowering entry barriers, supply of
adequate resources from the IF, helping developing countries to adjust loss of trade
from preference erosion and tariff revenue losses, and assistance to overcome supply
constraints, and addressing trade negotiation costs, terms of trade (ex. the case of net
food importing developing countries), and costs of NAMA (Non-Agricultural Market
Access) such as employment.
To a certain degree, aid for trade policies remain worryingly vaguely defined.
Because there are no universally agreed approaches on how aid for trade should be
implemented and distributed. The European Union (EU) doesn’t agree with expanded
aid for trade agenda, but instead believes aid for trade should go to traditional forms of
trade-related technical assistance. Japan, however, is interested in helping nations,
particularly LDCs, to build their infrastructure such roads and ports, as well as to
overhauls they customs systems. The United States, also advocates trade-related
90
assistance for infrastructure and trade facilitation (Smaller, 2006). Thus, this new
version of aid for trade should be based on the solutions to the problems previously
faced in aid for trade development programs.
As an approach, aid for trade is self evident in the sense that as along as it enhances
the economic development of poor countries through nurturing trade related activities.
But what is vague is how it will foster and pilot those processes and goals. In this regard,
there should be policies pertinent to each recipient country that can be mutually
reinforced across varying economic sectors and correlation with rationale of aid for
trade distances itself from current aid for development discourses and conditions, it can
international declarations aimed at promoting development trade. This would create
synergies towards achieving agreed objectives rather than singling out aid for trade
alone as independent program entity. Such coherence in policy dimensions and
objective setting definitely ensures the presence of checks and balances among
institutions related to aid. Otherwise, the means of addressing and achieving set out
objectives may remain poorly defined. Moreover, policy coherence, at minimum,
should avoid negative consequences of spillover effects on poor countries. Therefore,
policy coherence can have a role to play in this regard, as it has been the case in recent
years of the seven sub-Saharan countries.
5.3.1 Mainstreaming aid for trade with PRSPs
The poverty reduction strategic papers are comprehensive documents ever prepared.
The comprehensiveness of and scope of the papers depends on each country’s economic
set up but most incorporated macroeconomic, structural, and social policies of nations
and focus on ways and means to curve the complex economic problems, where trade is
seen as the missing ingredient.
Country ownership is the essential component that underpins PRSP. The ownership
requires a systematic promotion of mutually reinforcing policy actions across
government departments and agencies that would create synergies towards achieving
agreed objectives, as well as partnership between the recipient government and donor
agencies. Most importantly, coherence in objective setting is pillar in achieving the
promised objectives collectively. In this regard, the Doha declaration applauded IF
mainstreaming trade initiatives with PRSPs in the account of their inclusion of mutually
reinforcing policies and strategic directions.
Such coherence in policy dimension and objective setting can definitely ensure the
check and balance among institutions of any nature. It would also no doubt benefit
91
targeted groups in reducing their burdens by identifying and evaluating the outcomes of
aid. As such, PRSP is evaluated every three years according to World Bank.
Mainstreaming trade under the papers could allow for aid for trade to be included in the
integrated aid package system. Nevertheless, decades of experiences reveal that most
donors remain perplexed about how to package, coordinate, and deliver aid to
accelerated agricultural and rural development in Africa, where agriculture is the main
economic stay (Anderson, 2004).
Economists argue that the puzzles surrounding aid to agriculture in Africa are part of
the broader debate on why global aid to agriculture in developing countries declined in
the mid 1980s, followed by a further decline of aid to agriculture in Africa in the 1990s,
declines that significantly induced a decline in GDP in most of the seven countries.
They further elaborate that generating additional funding is not enough, but major aid
reforms should be put in place to address aid modalities and multi-sectoral lending
programs on sensitive sectors that have a substantive role in the livelihood of poor
people in Africa.
In response to sporadic and heterodox way of channeling aid money, the Rome
declaration on aid harmonization (February, 2003) put forward policies in which donor
programs donor programs are aligned with PRSP priorities, improve aid effectiveness
by reducing transaction costs, and build country capacity for aid delivery and
management. Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania, as aid dependent countries are included in
this program. Prior to Rome declaration, the Strategic Partnership for Africa (SPA)
launched in January 2003 to align and harmonize donor assistance with national poverty
reduction strategies and the national budget cycle in 23 countries of which, the seven
countries included in this study are a part. In addition, to aid harmonization, the Paris
Declaration (2005) endorsed aid effectiveness by introducing so-called mutual
accountability.
Further, World Bank (2006) indicates that Africa is on the move to achieve the
millennium goals better than the 1990s. Therefore, this study acknowledges that aid for
trade would play a role in poverty reduction if it is mainstreamed with PRSPs, and if all
the anomalous issues surrounding trade are sorted out. However, otherwise, there will
be a nebulous understanding how aid for trade will contribute for economic growth.
6. Way forward and Conclusion
Even though our results are not robust enough to detail and capture the roles of official
development flow in recipient countries because of its interlinked complexity, the
analysis and lessons drawn signal some improvements to be made in managing aid for
92
trade at both donor and recipient levels. At present, it seems somehow that the bad
gymnastics of access to aid have gone despite the current massive trade deficits in
sub-Saharan Africa countries. Interestingly, in the last few years, the seven countries
have performed well economically. Then, under circumstances where economic
performance in these countries is enhanced through the reexamination of policies and
subsequent rectifications or through opening new areas of interventions, the role of
integrated aid package would be enormous. So, as way forward:
Donors and recipient countries must work under a cohesive framework, rather than
by treating aid independently, piece by piece, initiative by initiative. In this regard, the
Paris Declaration could act as a platform in delivering the promise of development as it
has identified the players and interventions.
Donors should adjust, simplify, and streamline their operational policies, procedures,
and practices around country-led approaches. This will put the beneficiary countries in
the lead and reinforce their role in managing external support, while donor
harmonization could increase the efficiency and effectiveness of external support by
reducing the transaction costs on the partner country’s side,
Mainstreaming of trade with PRSP should be facilitated and strengthened so that,
countries are able to pursue achieving their Millennium Development Goals that set to
reduce hunger by 2015.
Efforts should be made towards capacity building in order for poor countries to
overcome the challenges they face in the domains of infrastructure and institutions, and
should focus on streamlining trade along with other sector issues in an integrated
manner. This would allow aid for trade to be effective and efficient in achieving set out
targets.
Easing aid conditionality and increasing mainstreaming with other sector programs
could greatly benefit poor recipient countries in reducing poverty, as has been seen in
recent years. Therefore, aid for trade should be integrated with other sectors as an
integrated aid package taking into account the lessons from aid for development, and
further study is also recommended on the implementation modalities with respect trade
restructuring policies.
93
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95
The Risk of Rural Poverty in Semi-Arid Regions of Turkey
Ilkay DELLAL *, Gursel DELLAL **
One fifth of the people in the world is living under poverty line and most of the poor in
rural areas. The aim of this research is to determine the risk of rural poverty of farms
located in semi-arid regions of Turkey. The bulk of the data used to reach the aim was
collected from selected farms by questionnaires which were selected from farms in the
research area by random sampling method. The risk analysis was made by simulation of
stochastic values of obtained income (Gross Agricultural Income and Total Family
Income). According to research results, it was found that the risk of rural poverty was
26.66% as to obtained Gross Agricultural Income and 17.29% as to Total Family
Income.
INTRODUCTION
Of the world's 6 billion people, 1.2 billion live on income less than $1 a day
(World Bank 2001). Some three quarters of the poor live in rural areas and depend
primarily on agriculture and related activities for their livelihood. The majority of the
rural poor live in areas that are resource-poor, highly heterogeneous and risk prone.
Their agricultural systems are small scale, complex and diverse. The worst poverty is
often located in arid or semi-arid zones (IFAD 2001; Dar et all 2003).
In semi-arid regions rainfed agriculture is coping with unreliable rainfall and
recurrent droughts with subsequent production failures. Although irrigation plays an
important role in food production, the possibilities of further extension seem to be
limited since water resources of sufficient quality become scarce or too expensive to
use.
Although Turkey is located in Mediterranean basin disaggregated into 7
geographical regions, each region has different characteristics in terms of climate and
*
Agricultural Economics Research Institute, Milli Mudafa Cad. No:18, TMO Ek Binası, 06100
Kızılay/Ankara, Turkey.
**
Ankara University, Faculty of Agriculture, Department of Agricultural Economics, Diskapi, Ankara,
Turkey.
96
geographical conditions. The region of Central Anatolia with continental climate and
average 500 mm/year rainfall has semi-arid region characteristics. Agriculture is mostly
depend on rainfall and fall mostly in winter months. Generally cereal farming is
common in semi-arid regions. Because of the low precipitation, each year at least one
third of the crop land is left as fallow land.
The main characteristics of semi-arid farms in Turkey is to be small scale family
farm, extensive production and mixed crop system with rotation. They have also kept
livestock for animal food necessity of family. The production from agriculture is
seperated firstly for family consumption and the rest of them is marketed.
The aim of this research is to determine the risk of rural poverty of farms located
in semi-arid regions of Turkey.
MATERIAL AND METHOD
To determine the risk of rural poverty of farms in semi-arid regions of Turkey, it
was selected that representing semi-arid areas as Kırıkkale province in Central Anatolia
region. The average temperature is 24.1 °C in summer and –1.8 °C in winter,
precipitation is 330 mm and humidity is 59% in Kırıkkale province. Of the total area
sown, 68% is belong to wheat, 20% is barley and rest of them is legumes, oilseeds,
industrial crops and vegetables.
Since there is no farm accounting system in Turkey, data were collected by
survey for 2001. The bulk of the data used to reach the aim was collected from 31 farms
by questionnaire which were selected from farms in the research area by random
sampling method.
In economic analysis of farms, Gross Production Value(GPV), Gross
Agricultural Income(GAI) and Variable Costs were calculated. GPV was obtained by
multiplying total production with product price. GAI was calculated by subtracting
variable cost from GPV. Total Family Income (TFI) was calculated by adding
nonagricultural income to the GAI.
The risk analysis was made by simulation of stochastic values of obtained
income (GAI and TFI). The stochastic values was calculated by GRK distribution and
simulated using simetar computer program (Rischardson 2003, Bowker and Richardson
1989, Ray et all 1998).
RESULTS
The main characteristic of selected farms was small family farms. Farm labor
was met from family labor especially active population. The male population was
97
2.4(±1.1), female population was 2.2(±0.9) and total population was 4.5(±1.7) in the
studied farms. 12.77% of them was 0-6 age group, 16.3% was 7-14 age group, 66.0%
was 15-49 age group, 5.0% of them was 50 and above age group. So, the active
population (15-49 age group) has the highest percentage as 66.0%.
As seen Table 1, plant production activity was mainly done in arid land. The
average farm land was 89.59 decares, 96.7% of them crop land, 2.5% was vegatable,
0.7% was fruit garden and 0.1% was vineyard area. Arid land had the highest
percentage in crop land as 95.16%. Only 4.84% of crop land was irrigated.
Selected farms were, mainly, engaged in cereal production in terms of plant
production (see table-1). As a matter of fact, 60% of farm land was allocated to wheat
and barley production. Fallow land was 39.65% because of the arid region necessity.
Besides plant production, animal husbandary was done in selected farms in the average
as 2 head dairy cow, 2.19 head cow, 13.03 head sheep and 1.45 head goat (Table 1).
As seen at the Table 2, Gross Agricultural Income was $4988 in the average
farm and 70.98% of them was from plant production, 29.02% was from animal
production. In the selected farms non agricultural income was also obtained as $577 in
the average. Total Family Income was found by adding Non Agricultural Income to the
Gross Agricultural Income as $5565. It was determined that the adequate income for
farms was 2740$ in 1984 in Turkey according to law 3083, Agricultural Reform on
Regulations for Irrigated Land, published in Official Newspaper in December 1st, 1984.
This income was calculated as 2300$ for 2001 year when it was calculated with
wholesale price index for Turkey. According to this, both Gross Agricultural Income
and Total Family Income were above sufficient income level. So, it could be said that
obtained income was sufficient at the average farm.
To determine the risk of rural poverty, calculated deterministic Gross Agricultural
Income and Total Family Income were transformed to stochastic values by Monte Carlo
procedure (Richardson 2003). Then these stochastic values were simulated and results
were given at Figure 1 and Table 3.
According to simulation results, simulated Gross Agricultural Income was
8191$ and simulated Total Family Income was 8595$ and these values were significant
as to 95% significant level (t-values 2.28). But the probability of obtaining income was
not distributed normally as seen in the Figure 1. While the probability of obtaining
income more than 10000$ was 31%, 2% of farms could have get zero profit or loss.
98
Table 1. The land, crop pattern and livestock of farms
Production activity
Unit
Area
Decar *
4.19
4.84
- Wheat (Irr.)
Decar
2.81
3.24
- Barley (Irr.)
Decar
0.90
1.04
- Sugarbeat (Irr.)
Decar
0.48
0.55
Decar
82.45
95.16
44.42
51.27
Irrigated Land
Arid land
- Wheat (Arid)
%
%
- Barley (Arid)
Decar
3.45
3.98
- Sunflower (Arid )
Decar
2.58
2.98
- Melon (Arid )
Decar
3.71
4.28
- Fallow
Decar
28.29
32.65
Total crop land
Decar
86.64
96.70
100.00
Vegetable land
Decar
2.23
2.49
100.00
- Green beans
Decar
1.04
46.64
- Tomatoes
Decar
0.59
26.46
- Cucumber
Decar
0.31
13.90
- Other vegetable
Decar
0.29
13.00
Fruit
Decar
0.61
0.68
Vineyard
Decar
0.11
0.23
Total area
Decar
89.59
100.00
Dairy
Head
2
Cow
Head
2.19
Sheep
Head
13.03
Goat
Head
1.45
*: One decar (da) is 1/10 of one hectare.
99
Table 2. Agricultural and Family Income
$
%
Gross Production Value
7,539
100.00
- Plant Production
- Animal Production
Variable Cost
- Plant Production
- Animal Production
4,314
3,225
2,551
774
1,778
57.22
42.78
100.00
30.33
69.67
Gross Agricultural Income
4,988
100.00
- Plant Production
3,540
70.98
- Animal Production
Non Agr. Income
1,448
577
29.02
Total Family Income
5,565
PDF Approximations
-10000,00
0,00
10000,00
20000,00
GAI
30000,00
40000,00
50000,00
TFI
Figure 1. PDF Approximation of GAI and TFI
Table 3. The simulated income
$
t-value
more than
$10000
Simulated Gross Agricultural Income
8191
2.28
30.52
2.26
Simulated Total Family Income
8595
2.28
31.71
2.00
100
less than 0
Simulated Gross Agricultural Income and Total Family Income was above than
sufficient income (2300$) that was adequate to subsist.
According to research results, the risk of obtaining income less than sufficient
for living was 47.23% in the selected farms when taken into consideration only
agricultural income (GAI). Since nonagricultural income was also obtained,
calculations was made as to Total Family income. When Total Family income was
taken into consideration, the risk of obtaining less than sufficient income was 31.45%.
According to World Bank, the people have been living in poverty earned less
than $1 a day (World Bank 2001). In the selected farms, average population was 4.5 in
the household. Thus, the income below poverty was calculated by multiplying average
population and 1$/day and compared with simulated obtained income. As seen Table 4,
it was determined that the risk of rural poverty 26.66% for obtained Gross Agricultural
Income and 17.29% for Total Family Income (Table 4).
Table 4. Probability of obtaining less than sufficient income
and the risk of rural poverty %
Gross
Agricultural Total Family
Income
Income
Less than sufficient income
47.23
31.46
The risk of rural poverty
26.66
17.29
CONCULUSION
The farms in semi-arid region has the risk of facing with rural poverty. The aim of this
research is to determine the risk of rural poverty of farms located in semi-arid regions of
Turkey. According to research results it was found that Gross Agricultural Income
was $4988 in the average and 70.98% was from plant production, 29.02% was from
animal production. In the semi-arid farms non agricultural income was also obtained as
$577 in the average. Total family income was found by adding Non Agricultural
income to the Gross Agricultural Income as $5565. And these were sufficient to
substance. The risk of obtaining less than sufficient income for living was 47.23% as to
Gross Agricultural Income (GAI) and 31.45% as to Total Family Income. It was
101
determined that the risk of rural poverty 26.66% obtaining Gross Agricultural Income
and 17.29% for Total Family Income.
REFERENCES
Bowker, J.M, Richardson, J.W. 1989. “Impacts of Alternative Farm Policies on Rural
Communities”, Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, December, USA.
Dar, W.D., Gowda, C.L.L., Sharma, H.C. 2003. “Role of Modern Science and
Techonologies in Agriculture for Poverty Alleviation in South Asia”. South Asia
Conference on Techonologies For Poverty Reduction, New Delhi.
IFAD 2001. Rural Povery Report 2001: The Chalenge of Ending Rural Poverty.
International fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD). Oxford University Pres,
p:3-4.
Ray, D.E., Richardson, J.W., Ugarte, D., Tiller, K. 1998. Estimating Price Variablity in
Agriculture: Implications for Decisions Makers. J.of Ag.and App. Eco.,30,1:21-33.
Richardson, J.W. 2003. Simulation for Applied Risk Management,
University, Department of Agricultural Economics, .
Texas A&M
World Bank 2001. World Development Report 2000/2001: Attacking Poverty, Oxford
University Pres, p:3-4.
102
果樹産地のブランド化による生産者の高品質化への取り組みに関する
シミュレーション分析
日野淳介・北川太・亀山 宏
１．はじめに
全国的に柑橘産地においては、消費者の多様化を色濃く反映して、温州みか
んから中晩柑類への転換の傾向はますます進んでいる。安全・安心を求める消
費者行動は変化し、産地のブランドにこれらを求めることから、小売店（グル
ープ）がこれらを保証するプライベートブランドへの信頼が寄せられている。
産地は、こうした高品質化への対応など、流通の多様なチャネルの開発に迫
られている。ますます農産物の産地による差別化が困難になるなかで、産地と
しての市場での認知度を高めつつ高品質化をめざす方策を模索している。
産地規模として小規模な香川県の産地では、スケールメリットを活かす大規
模産地とは異なり、従来から、多種多様な品揃えで市場関係者のなかで産地の
認知度を高めつつ、高品質化によるニッチな市場での消費需要に応えるべく、
流通ブランドを高める努力をしてきた。
２．ブランド化（高品質化）事業への取り組み
本研究の対象地の柑橘産地では、鮮やかな紅色の外観を持つ香川県のオリジ
ナル品種として、外観とともに高糖度で酸味もある濃厚な味を特徴とする小原
紅早生が近年期待されている。高く安定した収益性を期待できる高付加価値農
産物としてである。
高品質化のためには、園地整備やマルチ・ドリップ灌漑などの新たな栽培技
術の導入など多額な投資が前提となるが、財政負担では困難である。
そこで、県は産地の育成・維持を目的として、ソフト的なブランド化（商談
支援）事業をとおして、この高品質のミカンを毎年安定的に供給することを支
援している。
本研究では、こうしたハード的な事業とは異なるソフト的なブランド化事業
に取り組んで、より高い収益あるいは安定的な収益の実現が期待できた場合に、
生産者が果たしてどの程度、高品質化に取り組むのか、を定量的に検討するモ
デルの開発を課題とした。
果樹産地の維持・再編をめざすうえで、信頼性を高め収益向上をめざすうえ
で、どの程度の収益をあげ、経費を抑えることで、生産者が取り組む条件があ
るのかを定量的に検討した。
103
坂出では、「金時みかん」(小原紅早生)、「金時にんじん」「金時イモ」をあ
わせて、『三金時』として、特産品となっている。この三金時を中心に、シュ
ミレーションを行った。
小原紅早生の特徴としては、次の３点が挙げられる。１．果物の甘さを数字
で表す糖度が１２度以上と甘いこと。２．果皮とみかんの袋が薄く食べやすい
こと。袋だけのけようとしても、できないくらいの薄さである。３．果皮の色
が、名前に「紅」とつくくらい赤いのも特徴のひとつ。
温州みかんは制ガン作用の強いβクリプトキサンチンが他の柑橘類より多い
ことが特徴だが、小原紅早生みかんはさらにこの成分が多いとのこと。おいし
さと健康、が 1 個のみかんにぎゅっと詰まった、ひと粒でふたつおいいしい、
贅沢なみかんである。
３．記述的数理計画法によるシミュレーション
坂出市松山地区を対象にした。産地レベルで定量的に検討するモデルを構築
し、シミュレーション分析を実施した。
データは、県農業試験場から、品目別必要投下労働時間（月・旬別）、収益
性・経費を、また、坂出営農経済センターでの聞き取りから、現状の果樹の品
種別作付面積、及び特産物である三金時（かんしょ、ダイコン、ニンジン）、
を用いた再現モデルを構築した。
そのほか、供給の弾力性に、ある幅で値を仮定しシュミレーションを行った。
非線型の記述的数理計画モデルを策定し、小原紅早生の販売単価を段階的に
上昇させ、品目別構成の変化をみた。
カリブレーションモデル
基準モデル（現状を再現する）を構築するためには、従来、様々な制度的な
構造、技術的な構造を詳細に検討し、利用可能な資源についての制約を設定す
ることで、最適問題として解く必要があった。しかし、膨大な費用と専門的な
技能を要することが、その応用を妨げ、特定の研究者だけの方法論としてみな
されてきた。
本論文では、従来のように、恣意的な制約式を設定し、それぞれに制約量を
設け、そこから制約条件を緩めてシミュレーションするのではない方法、カリ
ブレーション法として、PMP アプローチ、記述的数理計画法、Positive
Mathematical Programming（以下、PMP と略称）法を用いている。
104
通常、費用関数にあって固定的な比率である投入産出係数では説明されない
部分があるが、PMP では、基準年における地域生産の姿は最適な生産のパター
ンを反映していると仮定して、次の 3 段階のプロセスで再現モデルを求める。
第一段階として、線形計画法の解法を容易にするために、上限、下限などに
制約条件にわずかな幅を持たせて最適化モデルを解く。地域生産の制約資源(土
地)のシャドウプライスが得られる。次に、第 2 段階として、シャドープライス
は現実の生産状況、とくに作物別土地利用など、に基づいて標準化されるが、
これらは、数量的にペナルティーの項として目的関数に統合される。カリブレ
ーション制約は取り除かれる。
n
Max
Z = ∑ ( p j y j − c j )x j
j =1
sub. to
∑a
ij
xj ≤
bi
x j ≤ x 0j (1 + ε )
x j ≥ 0,
i = 1,2,..., m
j = 1,2,..., n
制約条件つき最大化問題を解く。ここで、目的関数は、プロセス純収益総額
の最大化。Xj0 は,観察される活動水準のベクトル、εj は解を求めるための微細
な値。
ｐｊ ・yj は粗収益（ｐ：価格、y:収量）。Cj は変動的経費
第二段階は、検証・確認のプロセスである。
カリブレーション法によって、モデルの一般的な構造についての情報を提
供される。次のようなモデル作業に基づく。
Max Z = f(D)
(1)
Ax ≤ b
(2)
Ix = + ε
(3)
x≥0
(4)
ここで、Z は目的関数で、粗収益（単位面積当たりの収穫量×重量当たりの価格）
－ 変動費用（固定費は含まない）。
ベクトル X：変数で活動水準、現実に観察される作物別土地利用状況、行列 A：
技術係数（単位活動当たりの資源の投入必要量）、行列 X：投入―産出係数式、
（３）式：カリブレーション制約、ε ：微細な値。
それぞれのプロセスの限界費用曲線の縦軸との切片と勾配の値が、基準期
間に実際に現れている農業的な土地利用、作付面積のパターンなどを用いて
105
推定される。
勾配の項は粗収入（gross revenue）と活動水準に依存している。
（５）
ここで、γ：勾配の項、SE ：供給の価格弾力性、Y：単位面積当たり収穫
量、BPA：基準期間の活動水準を示す。インデックスは、r：地域、a：生産
活動、t：技術、 o：生産物、である。
縦軸との切片は、カリブレーション制約の双対値を用いて求められる。ま
た、勾配は、
(6)
ここで、 ：費用関数の切片の項、DVC：（３）式に示されるカリブレー
ション制約の双対値（土地などの限界価値生産額）である。こうして費用関
数は基準期間における農家の生産に関する意思決定によってもたらされる。
Oats
２＋ε
図１ Wheat と Oats を同時に作付け
106
注：ここで、栽培面積のｘで微分した限界費用である変動的費用曲線を
c j + μ = α j + β j x 0j
として、右上がりとするためには、2 次の費用関数を仮定すればよい。
TC j = α j x j + 0.5β j x 2j
非線形計画法の最適化条件をカリブレーション計画法のものと一致するよう
に、この関数のパラメーターをリカバー
第三段階は、シミュレーションである。
カリブレーション制約式を削除。費用関数は（１）式から（４）式により示
されるモデルに組み込まれている。また、政策実験では次のモデルを用いる。
Max
(7)
x≤b
(8)
x≥0
(9)
以上のようにして、モデルは、ミクロ経済学の理論にも整合しており、基準
期間での生産と価格を再現する。
＊非線形の PMP モデルは、
n
Z = ∑ ( p j y j − (α j + 0.5β j x j )) x j
Maximize
j =1
n
subject
to
∑
j =1
aij x j ≤ b；　i = 1,..., m
i
x j ≥ 0;
j = 1,..., n
107
表１
品目
極早生
早生
普通温州
中晩柑
施設
現状の品目別栽培面積
現状の
品種
栽培面積(ha)
市文・宮本
３．５
日南
１２．５
楠本
１８．５
上野
１８
宮川
１０９．６
小原紅
１９
尾張系
６４．５
青島
２２
宮内・勝山
２２．９
太田ポンカン
１９
不知火
０．７
その他
４９
宮川
０．７
小原紅
０．５
計
２９８．３
計算の前提
• 計算の前提は、土地制約は４００ha、労働制約は旬別,1 日時間、1,3,4,5,6
月：8 時間*1 人、2 月：9 時間*1 人、7 月,8 月：8 時間*3 人日=24 時間。
• 雇用労働なし、
• 現状の面積、基準面積は、次の表のとおりである。
品 種
面積
(ha)
品種
面積
(ha)
日 南
2
宮川
200
小原紅早生
マルチ
10
小原紅早生
マル･ドリ
7
不知火
3
普通温州
35
かんしょ
60
ダイコン
10
ニンジン
70
108
供給の価格弾力性は、以下のとおりである。宮川 1.0,せとか 1.0,清見 1.0,青島
1.0, 小原紅早生 0.1,
小原紅早生マルチ 0.1, 小原紅早生マル･ドリ 0.1, 不知火
1.3,普通温州 1.0, かんしょ 1.0,ダイコン 1.0,ニンジン 1.0
シュミレーションの内容は、小原紅早生の単価を、マルチ、マルドリともに、
10 円ずつ上げ、各品種の面積の増加減少への影響をみる。
４．結果
表２において、LP は最適解を、CAL は現状、PMP は PMP のカリブレーショ
ンの状況を示す。S1～S4 はシミュレーション結果である。
小原紅早生マルチとマルドリが S1 から S2 で順調に面積を増やすのに対して、
小原早生は急激に減少する。かんしょは S2 において消えるが、ダイコン３は S1
から S2 で減少し、ダイコン４は S2,S3,S4 と増加する。
この面積の構成の変化に対応して、栽培面積合計は減少し、労働利用におい
てもより集約化が進展し、プロセス純収益の好転を反映して所得は増加する。
５．考察
供給者である生産農家の聴き取りに基づき供給の弾力性を考慮した。
• 土地はあるが、労働が不足、特に 2 月。品種では、中晩柑の不知火の増加が
目立つので供給の弾力性を低く。
• 改善点：
– 土地を平坦地と傾斜地に分ける
– 労働の制約を緩める
– 作型を改める。
今後、生産農家への聞き取り、意向調査によりこの供給弾力性の妥当性につ
いて検証することにより改善したい。
109
表２ 結果
品種・作型
不知火１
不知火２
不知火３
不知火４
せとか
清見
青島１
青島２
小原早生
小原マル
小原マルドリ
宮川２
宮川３
かんしょ
ダイコン１
ダイコン２
ダイコン３
ダイコン４
ニンジン
土地
労働
所得
価格（小原早
生）
価格（小原早
生マルチ）
価格(小原マル
ドリ）
単位
10㌃
10㌃
10㌃
10㌃
10㌃
10㌃
10㌃
10㌃
10㌃
10㌃
10㌃
10㌃
10㌃
10㌃
10㌃
10㌃
10㌃
10㌃
10㌃
10㌃
時間
百万円
LP
199
779
3,516
901,280
4,533
円/kg
210
210
210
210
210
210
210
円/kg
250
250
250
260
260
260
260
円/kg
280
280
280
290
300
310
320
269
363
657
280
346
491
131
CAL
PMP
30
28
30
28
30
29
30
29
0
0
0
0
100
92
100
93
100
95
40
69
70
67
393
416
415
470
600
550
100
49
100
74
100
65
100
95
690
472
3,027 2,727
633,910 580,333
1,557
808
S1
S2
S3
S4
55
36
30
66
28
98
55
130
95
354
584
478
196
365
60
358
636
519
204
22
359
638
513
203
359
639
508
201
296
99
218
127
217
156
214
185
2,559
2,188
2,205
547,424 504,079 512,260
820
840
860
2,237
523,859
880
参考文献
Richard E Howitt 〔2005〕Agricultural and Environmental Policy Model:Calibration,
Estimation and Optimization, chapter5
p61～93.
農林水産省農業研究センター〔2000〕県別・作目別の収支データ・利益係数・技術係
数データファイル.
香川県農業経営課〔2001〕香川県経営指標ｐ98～111ｓ
110
附表１
不知火1
はるみ1
いよかん1
レモン1
せとか1
不知火2
不知火3
不知火4
せとか2
れもん2
きよみ
不知火6
はるみ2
いよかん2
ネーブル
不知火7
はるみ3
不知火5
なつおとめ
ゆぞら
デラウェア
興津1
青島1
青島2
興津2
宮川1
日南1
小原－早生
小原－マル
小原－マルドリ
日南1a
obara-jyu
日南1b
宮川2
宮川3
普通温州1
日南1c
普通温州2
青島3
日南1d
日南1e
石地1
日南1f
宮川4
hutu-un3
宮川5
石地2
柑橘作物の技術係数（10 アール当たり労働時間）
1-上 1-中 1-下 2-上 2-中 2-下 3-上 3-中 3-下 4-上 4-中 4-下
35
20
16
5
1
1
3
1
1
3
3
36
0
0
0
15
0
34
20
12
2
0
2
3
0
0
0
5
7
8
9
9
4
4
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
9
4
4
4
0
1
1
5
5
4
1
36
49
24
6
6
4
30
20
4
2
1
1
3
1
1
4
3
16
0
40
20
0
30
20
2
1
2
0
0
0
0
40
20
0
30
20
2
1
2
0
0
0
1
1
5
5
4
1
36
49
24
6
6
4
6
12
12
6
2
0
3
2
0
5
5
10
10
20
15
0
0
0
0
30
30
38
15
0
2
0
0
0
10
42
40
22
10
7
5
5
2
20
40
20
5
2
0
7
10
7
0
0
0
0
0
5
7
8
9
9
4
4
4
0
15
0
0
10
10
10
12
22
20
2
0
0
2
0
0
0
40
37
15
12
5
7
5
0
2
10
25
20
10
2
0
7
10
7
0
5
0
0
0
0
60
10
12
25
4
0
0
0
0
0
10
10
10
10
5
4
5
0
4
8
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
4
12
0
0
4
1
1
7
1
45
20
20
0
0
30
30
34
6
7
2
2
0
0
20
20
0
0
0
34
46
37
2
2
0
0
20
20
0
0
0
34
42
33
2
0
0
20
20
0
0
30
30
34
2
5
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
4
5
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
6
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
12
8
12
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
20
32
12
8
12
0
0
2
0
0
0
30
30
32
12
8
12
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
2
8
8
12
4
0
2
0
0
0
0
16
26
4
4
3
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
7
6
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
11
10
3
0
0
0
0
25
50
25
2
0
11
10
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
11
10
3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
4
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
4
2
0
0
10
0
0
10
10
0
0
3
6
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
2
0
0
0
15
0
0
0
0
0
0
7
6
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
6
6
3
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
7
7
3
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
8
8
3
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
4
7
1
0
0
15
5
0
0
0
0
0
7
6
2
0
0
111
不知火1
はるみ1
いよかん1
レモン1
せとか1
不知火2
不知火3
不知火4
せとか2
れもん2
きよみ
不知火6
はるみ2
いよかん2
ネーブル
不知火7
はるみ3
不知火5
なつおとめ
ゆぞら
デラウェア
興津1
青島1
青島2
興津2
宮川1
日南1
小原－早生
小原－マル
小原－マルドリ
日南1a
obara-jyu
日南1b
宮川2
宮川3
普通温州1
日南1c
普通温州2
青島3
日南1d
日南1e
石地1
日南1f
宮川4
hutu-un3
宮川5
石地2
5-上5-中 5-下 6-上 6-中 6-下 7-上 7-中 7-下 8-上 8-中 8-下
13
1
1
1
16
31
1
1
1
2
1
0
1
1
6
16
16
31
46
31
1
2
1
0
0
2
0
0
10
1
3
1
31
46
31
2
0
2
0
0
5
3
16
1
1
3
16
45
36
14
1
11
3
1
57
85
1
1
1
1
8
1
1
2
18
9
1
43
71
29
1
1
3
4
1
16
10
9
9
1
57
85
1
1
3
4
1
16
10
6
1
7
2
1
1
1
36
14
1
11
3
25
10
6
4
1
0
3
0
7
11
0
2
15
10
2
0
0
5
5
0
3
0
0
3
0
0
2
5
10
13
9
2
2
0
0
2
1
4
18
2
5
1
0
7
2
0
0
2
18
6
6
3
1
2
0
0
2
0
0
10
13
1
2
16
8
6
6
0
2
0
2
4
13
1
2
16
8
6
6
2
1
0
0
1
1
4
18
2
5
1
0
6
1
0
0
1
6
0
2
12
12
7
2
0
2
2
2
2
2
28
15
2
2
2
10
19
20
24
20
34
2
29
22
2
2
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
2
29
22
2
2
0
2
52
19
11
33
51
15
10
2
0
0
5
5
0
2
0
0
4
0
5
12
4
0
4
0
0
2
0
0
4
1
23
11
11
1
1
2
0
0
2
0
2
1
23
26
1
1
1
2
0
0
2
0
2
18
17
2
5
5
5
11
0
2
0
0
4
0
13
25
19
55
19
9
0
2
0
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
2
0
4
3
1
3
56
91
36
0
2
2
2
0
4
2
0
2
0
0
4
0
2
1
2
0
4
0
2
2
0
0
4
0
2
2
0
2
2
4
5
5
0
1
1
1
1
2
1
0
2
4
5
5
0
1
1
1
0
2
2
0
3
2
10
12
20
10
4
0
0
2
2
0
3
15
23
17
5
2
0
2
0
2
2
0
3
0
4
2
0
0
0
10
0
2
2
0
3
0
4
10
0
0
0
10
2
2
0
0
3
0
4
10
0
0
0
10
2
2
0
4
0
0
12
10
8
0
0
10
2
2
0
4
0
0
12
15
8
0
7
11
2
2
0
4
0
15
23
15
5
2
2
8
1
1
0
1
0
0
23
25
2
5
2
4
2
2
0
4
5
0
8
15
2
5
2
0
0
2
2
2
0
0
23
25
2
5
2
0
0
2
2
2
2
10
24
7
0
2
2
12
0
2
2
2
2
0
29
22
0
2
2
7
2
11
0
22
14
0
2
2
2
2
2
0
1
1
0
1
0
2
34
17
2
2
2
0
112
不知火1
はるみ1
いよかん1
レモン1
せとか1
不知火2
不知火3
不知火4
せとか2
れもん2
きよみ
不知火6
はるみ2
いよかん2
ネーブル
不知火7
はるみ3
不知火5
なつおとめ
ゆぞら
デラウェア
興津1
青島1
青島2
興津2
宮川1
日南1
小原－早生
小原－マル
小原－マルドリ
日南1a
obara-jyu
日南1b
宮川2
宮川3
普通温州1
日南1c
普通温州2
青島3
日南1d
日南1e
石地1
日南1f
宮川4
hutu-un3
宮川5
石地2
9-上 9-中 9-下 10-上 10-中 10-下 11-上 11-中 11-下 12-上 12-中 12-下
1
20
0
0
0
10
0
0
0
28
0
18
1
20
0
0
0
10
0
0
0
28
0
15
0
20
0
0
0
10
0
0
0
28
0
15
32
20
0
0
0
10
0
0
0
28
0
15
1
27
0
10
8
0
0
0
0
0
30
30
1
27
0
10
8
0
0
0
0
0
30
30
1
27
0
10
8
0
0
0
0
0
30
30
0
0
2
2
5
0
0
2
0
20
20
15
0
0
4
5
0
0
0
0
32
25
5
0
2
0
3
0
0
0
0
2
2
0
30
30
5
6
9
6
6
6
8
8
8
6
6
2
2
0
2
2
0
0
11
6
4
1
1
1
0
0
2
14
0
2
0
0
0
40
20
0
2
3
0
12
0
2
0
2
0
2
0
0
2
3
0
12
0
2
0
2
0
2
0
0
2
0
2
2
0
0
11
6
4
1
1
1
6
7
8
6
22
12
12
15
12
12
12
4
6
0
2
0
0
0
3
0
5
0
0
10
4
0
5
4
0
0
2
0
30
30
0
0
4
0
5
4
0
0
2
0
30
20
0
0
2
0
3
0
0
0
0
2
2
0
30
30
7
0
2
0
0
0
2
2
0
0
30
35
7
1
5
2
1
1
2
1
16
20
5
0
2
0
6
7
1
1
2
0
15
20
0
0
0
0
2
0
2
2
0
2
0
24
24
2
14
10
9
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
0
1
0
5
3
3
3
0
0
0
4
70
0
0
0
5
3
2
2
0
0
0
4
0
40
30
0
2
3
0
0
0
0
0
4
0
60
0
0
2
3
0
0
0
0
0
4
60
0
0
0
5
3
3
3
0
0
35
64
30
0
0
0
2
0
0
32
60
20
3
0
0
0
0
0
15
9
1
2
0
8
2
18
34
32
10
0
15
9
1
2
0
8
2
18
34
32
10
0
15
9
1
2
0
8
2
18
34
32
10
0
2
0
0
31
40
27
0
0
0
0
0
0
12
0
1
2
1
6
1
11
24
26
8
0
3
3
20
45
30
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
10
52
25
15
5
0
0
4
4
0
0
3
0
47
40
35
5
0
0
4
4
0
0
3
0
27
50
30
0
0
0
2
2
2
20
35
15
2
0
0
0
0
2
2
2
0
0
2
0
22
30
20
0
0
2
7
7
12
0
0
0
4
0
10
10
30
20
7
7
10
0
3
2
10
40
10
10
0
2
113
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
不知火1
はるみ1
いよかん1
レモン1
せとか1
不知火2
不知火3
不知火4
せとか2
れもん2
きよみ
不知火6
はるみ2
いよかん2
ネーブル
不知火7
はるみ3
不知火5
なつおとめ
ゆぞら
デラウェア
興津1
青島1
青島2
興津2
宮川1
日南1
小原－早生
小原－マル
小原－マルド
日南1a
obara-jyu
日南1b
宮川2
宮川3
普通温州1
日南1c
普通温州2
青島3
日南1d
日南1e
石地1
日南1f
宮川4
hutu-un3
宮川5
石地2
kg収量
売上高
第1変動費利益係数 反収（kg） ㎏あたり円
1,700
258
86
172
1,700
1,600
1,800
182
86
96
1,800
1,200
1,500
135
73
62
1,500
900
1,500
107
46
61
1,500
750
2,000
130
68
62
2,000
670
2,000
114
62
53
2,000
590
2,000
83
40
43
2,000
430
2,500
119
66
53
2,500
500
2,500
119
51
68
2,500
500
1,500
17
16
1
1,500
120
2,500
59
18
41
2,500
250
2,500
150
66
85
2,500
600
5,000
285
112
173
5,000
600
4,000
190
52
138
4,000
500
4,000
190
102
88
4,000
500
2,500
150
66
85
2,500
600
2,000
63
18
45
2,000
350
2,000
54
19
35
2,000
300
3,000
89
23
66
3,000
350
2,000
53
23
29
2,000
350
1,400
16
15
1
1,400
120
2,500
48
16
32
2,500
200
3,300
104
38
66
3,300
350
2,200
65
38
28
2,200
350
1,500
42
23
19
1,500
350
2,250
180
28
152
2,250
800
0
0
0
0
0
0
1,978
73
37
36
1,978
417
2,300
37
18
19
2,300
170
2,500
45
18
27
2,500
190
2,600
49
18
31
2,600
200
2,500
45
18
27
2,500
190
2,200
28
18
10
2,200
140
1,800
31
18
12
1,800
180
2,000
40
21
19
2,000
210
2,000
48
24
24
2,000
250
2,000
53
39
14
2,000
280
1,800
22
20
3
1,800
130
1,600
38
19
19
1,600
250
2,000
29
19
10
2,000
150
2,600
42
19
23
2,600
170
2,600
66
22
44
2,600
300
2,800
35
19
16
2,800
130
2,000
27
17
10
2,000
150
1,800
23
17
5
1,800
140
2,000
27
17
10
2,000
150
2,000
36
20
16
2,000
200
114
附表２
かんしょ
だいこん
だいこん
だいこん
だいこん
洋にんじん
かんしょ
だいこん
だいこん
だいこん
だいこん
洋にんじん
かんしょ
だいこん
だいこん
だいこん
だいこん
洋にんじん
主要な旗作物の技術係数（10 アール当たり必要労働時間）
1-上 1-中 1-下 2-上 2-中 2-下 3-上 3-中 3-下 4-上 4-中 4-下
4.7
7.2
7.6
24.7
32
26.5
16.9
10
15
160
8
12
35
10
14
28.3
21.7
19
40
5-上5-中 5-下 6-上 6-中 6-下 7-上 7-中 7-下 8-上 8-中 8-下
25
10.9
42
48.5
170
8
10
22
22
40
9-上 9-中 9-下 10-上 10-中 10-下 11-上 11-中 11-下 12-上 12-中 12-下
37.5
22.5
4.7
4.7
4.2
16.8
21.5
32.5
12
15
32
160
8
8
43
115
使用した GAMS のプログラムの原型
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * SETS * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
SETS
C crops
/WHEAT,CORN,TOMATO/
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * DATA * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
SCALAR
FLAND
farm size (ha)
/50/
FLABOUR family labour availability (hours per year)
/2000/
PARAMETER
PRICE(C) crop price (euros per ton)
/WHEAT 150
CORN 150
TOMATO 185/
LABREQ(C) crop labour requirements (hours per hectare)
/WHEAT 25
CORN
50
TOMATO 100/
YIELD(C) crop yield (tonnes per hectare)
/WHEAT 5.0
CORN 10.0
TOMATO 16.0/
COST(C) crop production costs (euros per hectare)
/WHEAT 300
CORN
500
TOMATO 1350/
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * CALCULATIONS * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
PARAMETER
MARG(C) gross margin per crop (euros per hectare)
116
MARG(C) = YIELD(C)*PRICE(C) - COST(C)
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * MODEL * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
VARIABLES
Z
farm net income (euros)
;
POSITIVE VARIABLES
X(c)
crop activity level (ha)
EQUATIONS
OBJECTIVE
LAND
LABOUR
objective function
land constraint
labour constraint
OBJECTIVE.. sum(c, (price(c)*yield(c))*X(c))
- sum(c, cost(c)*X(c))
=e= Z
LAND..
LABOUR..
sum(c, X(c)) =l= fland
sum(c, labreq(c)*X(c)) =l= flabour
MODEL BASICMODEL farm model /all/
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * SOLUTION * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
SOLVE BASICMODEL using LP maximizing Z
Parameter RESULT
RESULT(c,'LP') = X.L(c);
RESULT('LAND','LP') = sum(c, X.L(c))
117
RESULT('LAND_DUAL','LP') = LAND.M
RESULT('LABOUR','LP') = sum(c,labreq(c)*X.L(c))
RESULT('INCOME','LP') = Z.L
* * * * * * * * * * * CALIBRATION CONSTRAINTS * * * * * * * * * * * * * *
Scalar EPSILON perturbation /0.0001/
Parameter X0(c) base year situation
/WHEAT
30
CORN
18
TOMATO
2/
Equations CALIB calibration constraints
;
CALIB(c).. X(c) =l= x0(c)*(1+epsilon)
Model CALIBMODEL calibration model
/objective,land,labour,calib/
Solve CALIBMODEL using LP maximizing Z
RESULT(c,'CAL') = X.L(c);
RESULT('LAND','CAL') = sum(c, X.L(c))
RESULT('LAND_DUAL','CAL') = LAND.M
RESULT('LABOUR','CAL') = sum(c, labreq(c)*X.L(c))
RESULT('INCOME','CAL') = Z.L
* * * * * * * * * * * COST FUNCTION PARAMETERS
************
* Average cost function: alpha+0.5*beta*X
* Exogenous elasticities standard version: alpha=c, beta=mu/x0
* No marginal activity
Parameter elas(c) supply elasticity
/WHEAT 1.5, CORN 1.0, TOMATO 0.1/
118
Parameter alpha(c)
beta(c)
mu(c)
mu(c) = calib.m(c);
beta(c) = (1/elas(c))*((price(c))/x0(c))
alpha(c) = cost(c)+mu(c)-beta(c)*x0(c)
* * * * * * * * * * * NON LINEAL PMP MODEL
**************
Equations
OBJ_NLP non linear objective function
OBJ_NLP..
sum(c, yield(c)*price(c)*X(c))
- sum(c, alpha(c)*X(c)+0.5*beta(c)*X(c)*X(c))
=e= Z
Model PMPMODEL pmp model
/obj_nlp,land,labour/
Solve PMPMODEL using NLP maximizing Z
RESULT(c,'PMP') = X.L(c)
RESULT('LAND','PMP') = sum(c, X.L(c))
RESULT('LAND_DUAL','PMP') = LAND.M
RESULT('LABOUR','PMP') = sum(c,labreq(c)*X.L(c))
RESULT('INCOME','PMP') = Z.L
119
Impact Assessment of Thailand FTA
KAMEYAMA Hiroshi,Tawan BOOTSUMRAN
Abstract: This study addresses the economic assessment of the impacts of Thailand Free
Trade Agreement (FTA) and trade liberalization between Thailand and regional
countries quantitatively.
Thailand will be in a good position to perform a gratifying consequences and
entirely advantage from FTA.
1. INTRODUCTION
Thailand and Japan reached a general accord for an economics partnership agreement
(EPA) in 2005. The free trade agreement (FTA) reduces barries on more than US$40
billion trade. It is also expected to help increase cross-country investment and
technology transfer/ Japan is Thailand’s single largest trading partner and investor, and
Thailand is a leading exporter and supplier of a number of food, raw materials and
finished products to Japan[1].
2. GTAP MODEL and the TRADE POLICY SIMULATION
The analysis is based on a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of global
trade. For performing GE analysis, GTAP model (version 6, 2005) was employed. This
database provides input-output table with 87 regions and 57 commodities and bilateral
trade. We aggregate it into 20-regions; 11-setors; and 5-factors.The data of each country
in this model corresponds to the global economy in 2001.
120
Table１：
Trade impact in ASEAN
% change
(scenario All 1)
to
from
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Sout
C_S_
OCEAN CHN HKG JPN Korea TWN IDN MYS PHL SGP THA VNM hAsi Canada USA MexicoAmeric EU AfricaROW Total
a
a
OCEAN
CHN
HKG
JPN
Korea
TWN
IDN
MYS
PHL
SGP
THA
VNM
SouthAsia
Canada
USA
Mexico
C_S_
America
EU
Africa
ROW
Total
0.4
0.1
-0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
-3.3
-1.5
-3.3
-4.8
-1.5
1.8
0.1
-0.1
-0.0
-0.0
0.6
0.9
0.3
0.7
0.1
-0.1
0.6
0.1
-0.1
0.3
0.5
0.2
-0.2
0.4
0.5
0.0
-1.2
1.2
-1.1
-1.5
-1.1
-14.3
-10.8
-0.0
-3.4
-2.8
-3.3
24.7
-0.1
-0.7
1.4
-0.7
-0.9
-0.8
22.4
10.9
3.6
2.1
2.6
2.2
2.0
1.9
-1.2
0.1
-0.8
-0.1
0.4
0.3
0.4
-3.2
-1.6
-3.2
-4.5
-2.5
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.5
0.5
0.6
-3.0
-0.8
-2.6
-4.1
-1.9
2.7
0.3
0.1
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.3
-3.1
-1.8
-2.9
-4.5
-2.2
4.3
0.2
0.0
0.1
-0.0
0.4
-3.1
-1.8
-2.8
-4.4
-3.0
3.3
0.2
-0.0
0.0
0.0
-3.0
-2.0
-2.0
-4.1
-1.2
3.1
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.1
16.7
21.5
12.9
26.6
12.5
-1.9
0.3
0.0
0.3
38.4
6.4
47.4
14.8
-12.1
-8.0
-5.6
-3.3
5.1
22.6
57.6
0.2
1.5
-0.9
-0.1
1.1
3.8
2.8
2.6
2.0
2.0
-0.1
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
-0.4
-15.8
-0.6
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.2
-0.1
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.0
-0.0
0.1
0.2
-0.2
-0.0
0.1
0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.2
0.4
-0.1
-0.1
-1.1
-1.5
1.9
-2.4
-11.8
-3.1
0.9
-0.2
-7.9
-0.8
1.7
-15.4
-9.5
0.1
-9.2
-9.6
-10.0
99.0
56.7
61.4
39.4
-36.0
-16.9
-18.2
-15.9
-17.9
-18.4
72.0
41.6
35.6
76.9
90.2
151.5
-11.2 -20.5
-6.3 -2.8
-7.8 -4.3
-5.8 -1.4
0.5
0.3
-0.0
0.4
0.4
0.5
-3.4
1.2
-2.9
-4.7
-1.3
-1.9
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.1
-0.0
0.3
0.2
0.3
-3.0
-1.7
-3.4
-4.7
-1.8
2.0
0.2
0.0
-0.0
0.0
3.5
-15.2 -18.2
0.0
0.1
2.4
2.6
1.7
1.6
-7.4
-9.7
-9.2
2.6
0.1
0.2
0.3
-0.2
0.0
0.1
0.1
-0.0
-6.7
-3.3
-9.9
1.8
Note:1. policy simulation is eliminating the Import Tariff among ASEAN countries.
2. Values are the % change of VIMS (Trade- Bilateral imports at market prices ).
3. In case of ALL1 scenario as follows
121
0.5
0.2
-0.0
0.4
0.3
0.4
-3.1
-2.2
-2.9
-4.4
-1.4
2.2
0.2
0.0
0.5
0.2
0.0
0.3
0.2
0.3
-3.1
-2.4
-2.7
-4.7
-1.9
2.5
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.4
0.1
-0.0
0.2
0.2
0.3
-3.1
-1.3
-3.2
-4.9
-2.0
-0.8
0.2
-0.1
-0.0
-0.1
0.5
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.2
0.3
-3.0
-1.3
-3.1
-4.7
-2.1
3.4
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.6
0.2
0.0
0.3
0.2
0.4
-3.2
1.6
-3.6
-4.8
-4.8
-1.0
0.5
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.6
0.1
-0.0
0.3
0.2
0.3
-3.1
-0.3
-3.8
-4.9
-2.7
1.0
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.2
0.8
0.9
1.4
0.4
2.2
8.0
-0.2
-0.0
-0.0
0.0
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.1
-0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.1
-0.0
-0.0
-0.0
0.0
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.0
-0.0
0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.0
-0.0
-0.0
-0.0
0.0
3 . IMPACT ASSESSMENT by SIMULATION
3-1. four scenarios
a. with and without sensitive goods (Processed rice, Sugar),
b. armington trade substitution elasticities, standard or doubled
zero tariff (import tax)
ALL1
all commodity
ALL2
all commodity
SEN1
without sensitive commodity
SEN2
without sensitive commodity
Reference: [3]
armington elasticity
standard
doubled
standard
doubled
3-2. index for assessment
a. equivalent variation (EV)
The welfare change measurement in GTAP, million US$, a money metric
equivalent of this utility change and any change in population. The regional
household’s EV, resulting from a policy shock, is equal to the difference between the
expenditure required to obtain the new level of utility at initial expenditure.[2]
b. Real GDP (qgdp)
quantity index of GDP (gross domestic product), % changes
c. terms of trade (tot)
The price of exports relative to the price of imports, % change. TOT improvement
reduces the price of total domestic final expenditure (which includes imports but not
exports) relative to the market price of output (which includes exports but not
imports).
4.
RESULT
Thailand will be in a good position to perform a gratifying consequence, and
entirely advance from FTA.
122
Table 2. major measurement
ｑｇｄｐ(% change)
EV (billion US$)
ALL1
CHN
-195.6
HKG
-12.3
JPN
-439.3
KOREA
-112.2
TWN
-106.1
IDN
281.3
MYS
675.6
PHL
281.5
SGP
1212.0
THA
284.6
VNM
-44.2
OCEANIA -164.3
SouthAsia
-75.1
Canada
-7.5
USA
-416.7
Mexico
-8.8
C_S_America -93.9
EU
-419.0
Africa
-93.7
ROW
-99.9
ALL2
-177.5
-5.9
-285.9
-82.7
-67.5
261.6
678.2
282.5
1143.4
253.2
-33.6
-113.0
-12.7
-15.9
-226.3
-13.4
-86.3
-233.6
-84.9
-71.1
SEN1
-190.2
-11.2
-434.4
-114.4
-104.8
291.5
675.5
289.6
1207.9
235.8
-104.1
-162.7
-74.2
-6.8
-422.4
-8.2
-95.1
-416.4
-84.7
-97.0
SEN2
-165.0
-3.7
-268.1
-84.9
-63.5
269.6
687.7
256.4
1083.9
166.1
-131.5
-108.0
-10.9
-12.9
-231.2
-13.1
-85.7
-223.2
-68.8
-67.2
ALL1 ALL2 SEN1 SEN2
CHN
0
0
0
0
HKG
0
0
0
0
JPN
0
0
0
0
KOREA
0
0
0
0
TWN
0
0
0
0
IDN
0.02
0.06
0.01
0.04
MYS
0.48
0.6
0.48
0.6
PHL
0.08
0.32 -0.02
0.07
SGP
0.1
0.06
0.1
0.05
THA
-0.09
0.08 -0.08
0.09
VNM
0.24
0.73
0.23
0.7
OCEANIA
0
0
0
0
SouthAsia
0
0.01
0
0.01
Canada
0
0
0
0
USA
0
0
0
0
Mexico
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
C_S_America 0
EU
0
0
0
0
Africa
-0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01
ROW
0
0
0
0
tot(% change)
CHN
HKG
JPN
KOREA
TWN
IDN
MYS
PHL
SGP
THA
VNM
OCEANIA
SouthAsia
Canada
USA
Mexico
C_S_America
EU
Africa
ROW
ALL1 ALL2 SEN1 SEN2
-0.06 -0.05 -0.06 -0.04
-0.01
0
-0.01
0
-0.09 -0.05 -0.09 -0.05
-0.07 -0.04 -0.07 -0.04
-0.09 -0.06 -0.09 -0.06
0.52
0.38
0.56
0.44
0.07 -0.01
0.07
0
0.51
0.12
0.7
0.46
0.92
0.89
0.92
0.84
0.45
0.11
0.37 -0.01
-0.47 -0.98 -0.77 -1.42
-0.16 -0.11 -0.16 -0.11
-0.09 -0.05 -0.09 -0.05
0
-0.01
0
-0.01
-0.03 -0.02 -0.03 -0.02
0
-0.01
0
-0.01
-0.03 -0.03 -0.03 -0.03
-0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01
-0.03 -0.02 -0.02 -0.02
-0.02 -0.01 -0.02 -0.01
123
References
[1] Suthiphand Chirathivat, “Japan-Thailand EPA: Problems and Future”, working
paper No.5, Center for Contemporary Asian Studies (CCAS) Doshisha Univ., Japan,
May 2007.
[2] Karen M. Huff and Thomas W. Hertel, “Decomposing Welfare Changes in the
GTAP Model”, GTAP technical paper No. 5. January 2000.
[3] Kawasaki K. “GTAP model analysis, Japan-Thailand FTA and Japan-Korea FTA,
edited by Suzuki N.“FTA and Food”, Tsukuba Shobou, 2005 (Japanese).
124

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