ࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡟࠾ࡅࡿẼೃኚື࡟క࠺
Ỉ㉁ኚ໬࡜Ỉ㉁ಖ඲᪋タࡢ㐠⏝
2014 ᖺ 1 ᭶
ᓲ ㈆ ᆂ
i
┠ḟ
➨ 1 ❶ ᗎㄽ 1
1.1 ⥴ゝ ··················································································· 1
1.2 ᪤ ࡢ◊✲ ·········································································· 2
1.2.1 ᬮ໬⤖ᯝࡢヲ⣽໬ᡭἲ࡜ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇ࡟㛵ࡍࡿ⌧≧ ····· 2
1.2.2 ẼೃኚືࡀỈ㈨※࡟ཬࡰࡍᙳ㡪࡟㛵ࡍࡿ⌧≧ ·················· 3
1.2.3 Ỉ㉁ಖ඲᪋タࡢ㐠⏝ཬࡧຠᯝ࡟㛵ࡍࡿ⌧≧ ····················· 4
1.3 ᮏ◊✲ࡢ┠ⓗ࡜ㄽᩥࡢᵓᡂ ···················································· 5
➨ 2 ❶ ຊᏛⓗࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ࡟ࡼࡿࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡀ
ࢲ࣒㈓ỈụࡢỈ㉁ண ࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪
13
2.1 ᴫㄝ ··················································································· 13
2.2 ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇ᪉ἲ࡜᳨ウ ······················································· 14
2.2.1 WRF ࢆ⏝࠸ࡓຊᏛⓗࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ ······················ 14
2.2.2 ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇ᪉ἲ ························································ 14
2.2.3 ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇ࡟౫ࡽ࡞࠸Ẽ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱࡢ⿵ṇ ····················· 17
2.2.4 ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇ⤖ᯝࡢ᳨ウ ·············································· 18
2.3 ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡀỈ㉁ண ィ⟬࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪ࡢ᳨ウ ··························· 20
2.3.1 ᑐ㇟ᆅᇦࡢᴫせ ··························································· 20
2.3.2 3 ḟඖ†἟⏕ែ⣔ࣔࢹࣝࡢᴫせ ····································· 22
2.3.3 ෌⌧ィ⟬ࣔࢹࣝࡢᵓ⠏ ················································· 28
2.3.4 ෌⌧ィ⟬⤖ᯝࡢ᳨ウ ····················································· 32
2.3.5 ᙳ㡪᳨ウࡢࡓࡵࡢࣔࢹࣝࡢィ⟬ ····································· 38
2.4 ⤖ㄒ ··················································································· 43
➨ 3 ❶ ᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண 47
3.1 ᴫㄝ ··················································································· 47
3.2 Ẽ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱࡢᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝࡢ᳨ウ ··········································· 48
3.2.1 ᑗ᮶Ẽೃண ࡢᴫせ ····················································· 48
3.2.2 ᑗ᮶Ẽ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱࡢࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇ ····································· 49
ii
3.2.3 ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿẼೃኚືࣃࢱ࣮ࣥࡢ᳨ウ ··························· 51
3.3 ὶฟࢹ࣮ࢱࡢᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝࡢ᳨ウ ··········································· 54
3.3.1 ᑗ᮶ὶฟண ࡢᴫせ ····················································· 54
3.3.2 ᑗ᮶ὶฟࢹ࣮ࢱࡢࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇ ····································· 55
3.3.3 ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿὶฟኚືࣃࢱ࣮ࣥࡢ᳨ウ ··························· 56
3.4 3 ḟඖ†἟⏕ែ⣔ࣔࢹࣝ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண ········· 58
3.4.1 ࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢ㐠⏝࣮ࣝࣝ࡟ࡼࡿᨺὶ㔞ࡢタᐃ࡜ SWS ࡢ㐠⏝ ··· 58
3.4.2 ෌⌧ィ⟬ཬࡧࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱࡢྠᐃ ····································· 59
3.4.3 ᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண ࣔࢹࣝࡢᵓ⠏ ··········································· 71
3.4.4 ࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ㉁ኚ໬᳨ウ ·································· 76
3.4.5 ୗὶἙᕝ࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ㉁ኚ໬᳨ウ ····································· 80
3.5 ⤖ㄒ ··················································································· 84
➨ 4 ❶ Ẽೃኚື࡟㐺ᛂࡋࡓࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ㉁ಖ඲᪋タࡢ㐠⏝᪉ἲࡢ᳨ウ
87
4.1 ᴫㄝ ··················································································· 87
4.2 ࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡜ୗὶἙᕝ࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ㉁ၥ㢟ࡢᴫせ ························ 88
4.2.1 ᐩᰤ㣴໬ࡢᴫせ ··························································· 88
4.2.2 ෭࣭ Ỉᨺὶࡢᴫせ ····················································· 89
4.2.3 ⃮Ỉ㛗ᮇ໬࡜ᅵ◁ሁ✚ࡢᴫせ ········································ 90
4.3 㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛࢆ⪃៖ࡋࡓᑗ᮶ࡢỈ㉁ኚ໬ண ··························· 90
4.3.1 㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛࡢ㐠⏝ࢩࢼࣜ࢜ࡢタᐃ ······························· 90
4.3.2 ࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ㉁ኚ໬᳨ウ ·································· 91
4.3.3 ୗὶἙᕝ࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ㉁ኚ໬᳨ウ ····································· 98
4.4 Ỉ㉁ၥ㢟࡟╔┠ࡋࡓ᳨ウ ······················································· 99
4.4.1 ᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥ(Chl.a)ࡢቑṪၥ㢟 ······························ 99
4.4.2 ෭࣭ Ỉᨺὶࡢၥ㢟 ····················································· 100
4.4.3 ⃮Ỉ࡜ᅵ◁ሁ✚ࡢၥ㢟 ················································· 102
4.5 ⤖ㄒ ··················································································· 104
➨ 5 ❶ ⤖ㄽ
ㅰ㎡
107
iii
ᅗ┠ḟ
2.1
:5) ࡟ࡼࡿィ⟬㡿ᇦ㸪✵㛫ゎീᗘࡢᴫᛕᅗ ···································· 2.2
ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇ࡟⏝࠸ࡓᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࡢィ⟬᱁Ꮚཬࡧ㞼㔞ィ⟬࡟⏝࠸ࡓ⇃㇂࡜๓ᶫࡢ
14
఩⨨ᅗ ····················································································· 15
2.3
㢖ᗘศᕸ࣐ࢵࣆࣥࢢ⿵ṇἲࡢᴫᛕᅗ ············································ 17
2.4
ࢲ࣒ᆅⅬ࡟࠾ࡅࡿほ ࣭ィ⟬㢼ྥࡢฟ⌧㢖ᗘ ································ 17
2.5
ᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࡢᆅᅗ࡜Ỉ㉁ㄪᰝᆅⅬ ·················································· 21
2.6
ᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࡢ㈓Ỉᐜ㔞㓄ศᅗ ························································· 21
2.7
(/&20 ࣔࢹ࡛ࣝ⪃៖ࡍࡿ≀⌮ⓗࣉࣟࢭࢫࡢᴫせᅗ ·························· 23
2.8
(/&20 ࣔࢹࣝࡢィ⟬ᗙᶆ㸪࣓ࢵࢩࣗ㸪ኚᩘࡢᐃ⩏ ·························· 23
2.9
&$('<0 ࣔࢹ࡛ࣝ⪃៖ࡍࡿỈయ࡜ሁ✚ᒙࡢ≧ែኚᩘࡢᴫせᅗ ············ 26
2.10 ᐇ ࡜ࣔࢹࣝࡢỈ఩㸫㈓Ỉᐜ㔞ࡢ┦㛵ᅗ ······································ 28
2.11 ᖺ࡟࠾ࡅࡿὶධ㔞㸪ᨺὶ㔞㸪Ỉ఩ཬࡧᨺὶỈ῝ ····················· 29
2.12 ὶධ㒊࡛ࡢྛỈ㉁㡯┠ࡢ /4 ᪉⛬ᘧ࡜ᐇ ್࡜ࡢẚ㍑ ··················· 30
2.13 ᾆᒣᕝࡢὶධ㒊࡟࠾ࡅࡿほ ⃮ᗘ࡜ほ 66 ࡢ┦㛵ᅗ ···················· 31
2.14 ᐇ Ỉ఩ࡸ㈓Ỉᐜ㔞࡜ࣔࢹࣝࡢィ⟬Ỉ఩ࡸ㈓Ỉᐜ㔞ࡢẚ㍑ ············· 32
2.15 ᐇ ࡜ィ⟬Ỉ ࡢ㖄┤ศᕸᕥ࡜⾲ᒙ࣭୰ᒙ࣭పᒙ࡟࠾ࡅࡿẚ㍑ྑ 34
2.16 ⾲ ᒙ ࣭ ୰ ᒙ ࣭ ప ᒙ ࡟ ࠾ ࡅ ࡿ ᐇ ࡜ ィ ⟬ ࡢ ⁐ Ꮡ 㓟 ⣲ ᕥ ࡜ 66 ྑ ࡢ ẚ ㍑ ······································································································· 34
2.17 ⾲ᒙ࣭୰ᒙ࣭పᒙ࡟࠾ࡅࡿᐇ ࡜ィ⟬ࡢ 71ᕥ࡜ 73ྑࡢẚ㍑ ····· 35
2.18 ⾲ᒙ࣭୰ᒙ࣭పᒙ࡟࠾ࡅࡿᐇ ࡜ィ⟬ࡢ &KOD ⃰ᗘࡢẚ㍑ ············· 35
2.19 ᇶ‽Ⅼࡢ⾲ᒙ࡟࠾ࡅࡿᐇ ⸴㢮⃰ᗘ࡜ࣔࢹࣝࡢィ⟬⤖ᯝࡢẚ㍑ ······ 36
2.20 ᨺὶᆅⅬ࡟࠾ࡅࡿᐇ ್࡜Ỉ ཬࡧỈ㉁ィ⟬⤖ᯝࡢẚ㍑ ················ 36
2.21 ᪥ᖹᆒὶධỈ ࡢᐇ ್࣭⿵ṇ๓࣭⿵ṇᚋࡢẚ㍑ ························· 39
2.22 ᐇ ್࣭ィ⟬್࣭⿵ṇ್ࡢỈ ᕥ࡜⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲ྑࡢ㖄┤ศᕸィ⟬⤖ᯝ 40
2.23 ᐇ ್࣭ィ⟬್࣭⿵ṇ್ࡢ 66ᕥࡢ㖄┤ศᕸ࡜⾲ᒙ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ 71࣭73࣭&KODྑ
ࡢィ⟬⤖ᯝ ··············································································· 41
2.24 ᨺὶᆅⅬ࡟࠾ࡅࡿᐇ ್࣭ィ⟬್࣭⿵ṇ್ࡢỈ ࡜Ỉ㉁ࡢィ⟬⤖ ··· 42
3.1
Ẽ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱࡢᑗ᮶ண ᪉ἲࡢᴫᛕᅗ ············································ 49
3.2
⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿẼ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱࡢᖺኚື ······································ 53
3.3
⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿẼ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱࡢ᭶ኚື ······································ 53
iv
3.4
ὶฟィ⟬࡟࠾ࡅࡿ୺せẚ㍑ᆅⅬ ·················································· 54
3.5
ὶฟࢹ࣮ࢱࡢᑗ᮶ண ᪉ἲࡢᴫᛕᅗ ············································ 55
3.6
ィ⟬ᮇ㛫࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⌧ᅾ್࣭ᑗ᮶್ࡢᖺᖹᆒὶ㔞ୖ࡜᭶ᖹᆒὶ㔞ୗ 56
3.7
ィ⟬ᮇ㛫࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⌧ᅾ್࣭ᑗ᮶್ࡢ᫬㛫ὶ㔞 ································ 57
3.8
ィ⟬ᮇ㛫࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⌧ᅾ್࣭ᑗ᮶್ࡢ ᖺᖹᆒࡢὶἣ᭤⥺ ················ 57
3.9
ᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࡢ㐠⏝࣮ࣝࣝ࡟ࡼࡿᨺὶ㔞タᐃ࡟క࠺Ỉ఩ኚື ················ 58
3.10 /4ᘧ࡟ࡼࡿ⟬ᐃࡉࢀࡓ1+ ࣭12 ࣭71ࡢẚ㍑⤖ᯝ ··························· 60
3.11 /4ᘧ࡟ࡼࡿ⟬ᐃࡉࢀࡓ32 ࣭73࣭&KODࡢẚ㍑⤖ᯝ ························ 61
3.12 ෌⌧ィ⟬࡟ࡼࡿィ⟬Ỉ఩࡜ᐇ Ỉ఩࡜ࡢẚ㍑⤖ᯝ ························· 63
3.13 ᇶ‽Ⅼࡢ⾲ᒙ࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ ࣭⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲࣭66 ࡢ෌⌧ィ⟬࡜ᐇ ್ࡢẚ㍑⤖ᯝ 64
3.14 ᇶ‽Ⅼࡢ⾲ᒙ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ 71࣭73࣭&KOD ࡢ෌⌧ィ⟬࡜ᐇ ್ࡢẚ㍑⤖ᯝ ··· 65
3.15 ᇶ‽Ⅼࡢ⾲ᒙ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⸴㢮ࢢ࣮ࣝࣉࡢ෌⌧ィ⟬࡜ᐇ ್ࡢẚ㍑⤖ᯝ ··· 66
3.16 ୗὶἙᕝ࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ ࣭⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲࣭66 ࡢ෌⌧ィ⟬࡜ᐇ ್ࡢẚ㍑⤖ᯝ 69
3.17 ୗὶἙᕝ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ 71࣭73࣭&KOD ࡢ෌⌧ィ⟬࡜ᐇ ್ࡢẚ㍑⤖ᯝ ··· 70
3.18
⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⟬ᐃࡉࢀࡓὶධỈ ࣭⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲࣭66 ࡢẚ㍑⤖ᯝ 72
3.19
⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⟬ᐃࡉࢀࡓ1+ ࣭12 ࣭71ࡢẚ㍑⤖ᯝ ················ 73
3.20
⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⟬ᐃࡉࢀࡓ32 ࣭73࣭&KODࡢẚ㍑⤖ᯝ ············· 74
3.21
⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢỈ఩ኚື ······································ 75
3.22
⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⾲ᒙ࣭୰ᒙ࣭ᗏᒙࡢỈ ࣭⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲࣭66 ࡢኚ໬ ·· 76
3.23
⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶ࡢ෤~ ᭶࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ ࡢ㖄┤ศᕸ ························ 77
3.24
⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶ࡢኟ~ ᭶࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ ࡢ㖄┤ศᕸ ·························· 78
3.25
⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⾲ᒙ࣭୰ᒙ࣭ᗏᒙࡢ 71࣭73࣭&KOD ࡢኚ໬ ······ 79
3.26
⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿᇶ‽Ⅼࡢ⾲ᒙࡢ᪥ᖹᆒ &KOD ⃰ᗘ ··················· 80
3.27 ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶ࡢୗὶἙᕝ࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ ࡜Ỉ㉁ࡢኚ໬ ························· 81
3.28 ⌧ᅾୖ࡜ᑗ᮶ୗ࡟࠾ࡅࡿẖᖺᨺὶỈ ࡢ᫬⣔ิኚ໬࡜෭࣭ Ỉᨺὶࡢ⠊ᅖ
······································································································· 81
3.29
⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶ࡢ ᖺ㛫࡟࠾ࡅࡿ෭Ỉᨺὶ࡜ Ỉᨺὶࡢᨺὶ᪥ᩘ ········· 82
3.30
⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿᨺὶ 66 ࡢ᫬⣔ิኚ໬ ···································· 83
4.1
෭࣭ Ỉᨺὶࡢᴫᛕᅗ ······························································· 89
4.2
ࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢ᭷↓࡟ࡼࡿୗὶἙᕝ࡟࠾ࡅࡿฟỈ᫬ࡢ⃮ᗘ⃰ᗘࡢኚ໬ 90
4.3
6:6 ࡢ㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿᑗ᮶ࡢ⾲ᒙ࣭୰ᒙ࣭ᗏᒙࡢỈ ࣭⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲࣭66 ࡢኚ໬
······································································································· 92
4.4
6:6 ࡢ㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿᑗ᮶ࡢ⾲ᒙ࣭୰ᒙ࣭ᗏᒙࡢ 71࣭73࣭&KOD ࡢኚ໬ · 92
4.5
6:6 㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿᑗ᮶ࡢ෤~ ᭶࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ ࡢ㖄┤ศᕸ ············ 94
4.6
6:6 㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿᑗ᮶ࡢኟ~ ᭶࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ ࡢ㖄┤ศᕸ ·············· 95
4.7
ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿྛᖺࡢ㸶᭶࡟࠾ࡅࡿ 6:6 㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿỈ ࡢᖹᆒ㖄┤ศᕸ · 96
v
4.8
⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ 㖄┤ศᕸ࡜⃮Ỉᒙࡢᣲື ···························· 97
4.9
6:6 㐠⏝࡜ฟỈつᶍ࡟ࡼࡿ⃮Ỉ࡜Ỉ ࡢ㖄┤ศᕸ ····························· 97
4.10 6:6 ࡢ㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿᑗ᮶ࡢୗὶἙᕝࡢỈ ࡜Ỉ㉁ኚ໬ ······················· 98
4.11
6:6 ࡢ㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒†ෆ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ &KOD ⃰ᗘࡢᇶ‽್ࢆ㉸㐣ࡍࡿ᪥ᩘ · 100
4.12 ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶ࡢὶධỈ ࡟ᇶ࡙ࡃ෭࣭ Ỉᨺὶホ౯࡟ࡼࡿቑῶ⋡ ······· 100
4.13 6:6 㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿ෭࣭ Ỉᨺὶࡢୗ㝈࡜ୖ㝈Ỉ ࡢ⠊ᅖ࡜ᖺኚືࣃࢱ࣮ࣥ · 101
4.14 6:6 ࡢ㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿᑗ᮶ࡢ⃮Ỉᨺὶ᪥ᩘ࡜ᨺὶ 66 ࡢ᫬⣔ิኚ໬ ········· 103
vi
⾲┠ḟ
2.1
ࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇἲ࡟ࡼࡿᐇ ್࡜ࡢ⤫ィ್ ······················ 19
2.2
ὶධ 66 ࡢ⢏ᚄ༊ศ ···································································· 31
2.3
෌⌧ィ⟬࡛⏝࠸ࡓỈ 㸪⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲㸪ᰤ㣴ሷ㸪&KOD ࡢࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱ ···· 37
2.4
ィ⟬࡛⏝࠸ࡓᐇ ್㸪⿵ṇ๓࣭ᚋࡢẼ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱࡢᖺᖹᆒ್ ············· 38
2.5
᪥ᖹᆒὶධỈ ࡢᐇ ್࣭⿵ṇ๓࣭⿵ṇᚋࡢᏘ⠇ẖࡢኚ໬ ············· 39
3.1
,3&&ࡢ➨ ḟ࡜ ḟホ౯ሗ࿌᭩࡟ࡼࡿࢩࢼࣜ࢜࡜&2 ⃰ᗘ ·················· 48
3.2
⌧ᅾẼೃ࡟࠾ࡅࡿࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢศᕸ㛵ᩘ࡟ࡼࡿࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇ⤖ᯝ ······· 50
3.3
ᑗ᮶Ẽೃ~ ࡢ ᖺ㛫࡟࠾ࡅࡿࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇ⤖ᯝ ············· 51
3.4
ὶฟࢹ࣮ࢱ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⌧ᅾ್࡜ᑗ᮶್࡟⿵ṇ⤖ᯝ ····························· 55
3.5
&KOD ࡢィ⟬࡛᥇⏝ࡋࡓ⸴㢮✀ẖࡢ᭶ẖࡢẚ⋡ ····························· 59
3.6
ᇶ‽Ⅼࡢ⾲ᒙ࡟࠾ࡅࡿᐇ ್࡜෌⌧ィ⟬್࡜ࡢ5 㸪$0(㸪506( ········· 63
3.7
෌⌧ィ⟬࡛⏝࠸ࡓỈ 㸪⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲㸪ᰤ㣴ሷ㸪&KOD ࡢࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱ ···· 67
3.7
ୗὶἙᕝ࡟࠾ࡅࡿᐇ ್࡜෌⌧ィ⟬್࡜ࡢ5 㸪$0(㸪506( ··············· 68
3.8
ᅇᖐᘧ࡟ࡼࡿ⟬ฟࡉࢀࡓ⌧ᅾ࣭ᑗ᮶ࡢὶධỈ ࡢィ⟬⤖ᯝ ············· 71
3.9
⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶ࡢ࠾ࡅࡿ ᖺ㛫ࡢᖹᆒỈ఩࡜ẖᖺࡢᖹᆒỈ఩ ················ 75
3.10
⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿẖᖺࡢ⃮Ỉᨺὶ᪥ᩘ࡜᭱኱㐃⥆᪥ᩘ ················ 82
3.11
⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶ࡢࢲ࣒†ෆ࡟࠾ࡅࡿẖᖺࡢᅵ◁ሁ✚㔞࡜ሁ✚⋡ ················ 83
4.1
2(&' ࡢᐩᰤ㣴໬ࡢุᐃᇶ‽ ························································ 88
4.2
ᾆᒣࢲ࣒࡟࠾ࡅࡿ㐣ཤ ᖺ㛫ࡢ 73 ࡜ &KOD ⃰ᗘࡢኚ໬ ················ 88
4.3
⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿ 6:6 ࡢ㐠⏝ࢩࢼࣜ࢜ ······································ 91
4.3
ࢲ࣒†ෆࡢ⾲ᒙ࡟࠾ࡅࡿኟሙ~ ᭶ࡢ⸴㢮ẖࡢᖹᆒ⃰ᗘ㸪ᖹᆒỈ ไ㝈ᅉᏊ
ཬࡧᖹᆒỈ ············································································ 99
4.5
⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿẖᖺࡢ⃮Ỉᨺὶ᪥ᩘ࡜᭱኱㐃⥆᪥ᩘ ················ 102
4.6
6:6 㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿᑗ᮶ࡢࢲ࣒†ෆ࡟࠾ࡅࡿẖᖺࡢᅵ◁ሁ✚㔞࡜ሁ✚⋡ ···· 103
1
➨ 1 ❶ ᗎㄽ
1.1 ⥴ゝ
Ẽ㇟ᗇࡢほ ࢹ࣮ࢱ࡟ࡼࢀࡤᮾிࡢ᭱㏆ 10 ᖺ(2001~2010 ᖺ)ࡢᖹᆒẼ ࡜ᖺ㝆Ỉ㔞ࡣ
16.6Υ࡜ 1628.2 mm ࡛㸪㐣ཤ 100 ᖺ(1901~2000 ᖺ)ࡢᖹᆒẼ 14.9Υ࡜ᖺ㝆Ỉ㔞 1536.2
mm ࡼ ࡾ Ẽ ࡣ 1.7 Υ ୖ ᪼ ࡋ 㸪 ᖺ 㝆 Ỉ 㔞 ࡣ 92 mm ቑ ຍ ࡋ ࡓ [1] 㸬 ࡲ ࡓ 㸪
IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change)ࡣ⌧ᅾࡢ඲⌫ᖹᆒẼ ࡣ㐣ཤ 50 ᖺ
๓ࡼࡾ 0.74Υ(s0.03Υ)ୖ᪼ࡋ, 2050 ᖺ࡟ࡣ⌧ᅾࡢẼ ࡼࡾ 1.1~6.4Υࡀୖ᪼ࡍࡿྍ⬟ᛶࢆ
ゝཬࡋ㸪ࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞Ẽ ୖ᪼ࡢཎᅉ࡜ࡋ࡚ᛴ⃭࡞⤒῭ᡂ㛗࡜ே㛫άື࡟ࡼࡿ஧㓟໬Ⅳ⣲࡞
࡝ ᐊ࢞ࢫࡢ⃰ᗘࡀቑຍࡋࡓࡓࡵ࡜⤖ㄽ௜ࡅࡓ[2]㸬ࡉࡽ࡟Ẽ ࡢୖ᪼ࡣ㝆Ỉ㔞࡜⵨Ⓨ㔞ࡢ
ኚ໬ࢆ㉳ࡇࡋ㸪ᖸࡤࡘ㸪ὥỈ㸪ᒁᆅᛶ㞟୰㇦㞵ࡢⓎ⏕㢖ᗘ࡜Ⓨ⏕ᆅᇦࢆቑຍࡉࡏࡿാࡁࢆ
ࡋ㸪⤖ᯝⓗ࡟ὶᇦࡢὶฟ㔞㸪Ἑᕝὶ㔞ࡢኚ໬࡟ࡼࡗ࡚Ỉ㈨※౪⤥ࡢ୙Ᏻᐃᛶࢆቑຍࡉࡏࡿ
ࡇ࡜࡟࡞ࡿ[3][4][5][6]㸬ࡲࡓ, Ẽ ࡢୖ᪼࡟ࡼࡾࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụෆ࡛ࡣ㓟⣲ᾘ㈝㔞ࡢቑຍ࡜ࡑ
ࢀ࡟ࡼࡾሁ✚ᒙ࡛ࣜࣥࡢ⁐ฟࡀቑຍࡋ࡚㸪ᚠ⎔ᮇ࡟⾲ᒙ࡛ᰤ㣴ศࢆ౪⤥ࡋ㸪᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡ
ࢺࣥࡢ⃰ᗘࢆቑຍࡉࡏ࡚ᐩᰤ㣴໬࡜࢔࢜ࢥࡢ኱Ⓨ⏕(algal bloom)ࢆ㉳ࡇࡍཎᅉ࡟࡞ࡿ
[7][8]㸬ࡲࡓ㸪㝆㞵ᙉᗘࡢቑຍ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ὥỈ᫬࡟ὶධࡍࡿ⃮Ỉ㔞ࡀቑຍࡋ࡚㈓Ỉụෆ࡛ࡣᚤ
⢏Ꮚ࡟ࡼࡿ⃮Ỉࡢ㛗ᮇ໬ࢆ㉳ࡇࡋ㸪ᨺὶ᫬࡟ୗὶἙᕝࡢỈ㉁పୗ࠾ࡼࡧ⏕ែ⣔ࡢᨩ஘(౛:
㨶㢮⏕ᜥ⎔ቃࡢኚ໬)࡞࡝ࡢᝏᙳ㡪ࢆ୚࠼㸪᭱⤊ⓗ࡟ࡣపᒙ࡟ሁ✚ࡋ࡚㈓Ỉụࡢᐜ㔞ࢆῶᑡ
ࡉࡏࡿ㸬ࡑࡢࡓࡵ㸪ẼೃኚືࡀỈ㈨※ࡢ㔞ⓗ࣭㉁ⓗኚ໬࡟ཬࡰࡍᙳ㡪ࢆ᳨ウࡋ࡚࠾ࡃࡇ࡜
ࡣ㔜せ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬
Ẽೃኚື࡟క࠺ὶᇦࡢ㝆Ỉ㔞࣭ὶฟ㔞ཬࡧἙᕝὶ㔞࡞࡝ࡢ㔞ⓗ࡞ኚ໬࡟ཬࡰࡍᙳ㡪࡟㛵
ࡍࡿ◊✲ࡣከ࠸ࡀ㸪ᡃࡀᅜࡢỈ㐨ཎỈࡢ༙ศ௨ୖࢆᢸࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ[9]࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⃮Ỉ
ࡸ࢔࢜ࢥࢆྵࡴ㉁ⓗ࡞ᙳ㡪࡟㛵ࡍࡿ◊✲ࡣᑡ࡞࠸㸬ࡉࡽ࡟ࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡣ㛢㙐ⓗ࡞㝣Ỉ≀⌮
Ꮫⓗ࡞≉ᛶ࡟ࡼࡾ㸪␃᫬㛫ࡀ▷࠸ἙᕝࡼࡾẼೃኚື࡟ࡼࡿ኱ࡁ࡞ᙳ㡪ࢆཷࡅࡸࡍ࠸ࡓࡵ㸪
Ẽೃኚື࡟క࠺ᑗ᮶ࡢỈ㉁ኚ໬࡜ᙳ㡪ࢆ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟ࡋࡓୖ࡛ࡑࢀ࡟ᑐᛂࡍࡿ㐺ษ࡞Ỉ㉁ಖ඲
ᑐ⟇ࡀᚲせ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬
⌧ᅾ㸪ࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ㉁ಖ඲ࡢࡓࡵ࡟ࡣࣇ࢙ࣥࢫ(curtain weir)㸪㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛ
(selective withdrawal system)㸪᭚Ẽ⿦⨨(aeration)㸪ࣂ࢖ࣃࢫ(bypass)࡞࡝ࡢከᵝ࡞᪋タ
ࡀタ⨨࣭㐠⏝࡟ࡉࢀ㸪ࡑࢀ࡟ࡼࡿỈ㉁⟶⌮ࡀ⾜ࢃࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ[10][11][12][13][14]㸬ࣇ࢙ࣥࢫ
ࡣ⾲ᒙὶධỈࡢὶࢀࢆேⅭⓗ࡟ኚ໬ࡉࡏ࡚⾲ᒙ࡟ὶධࡍࡿᰤ㣴ሷࡢ౪⤥ࢆ㐽᩿ࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡟
ࡼࡗ࡚࢔࢜ࢥཬࡧ⸴㢮ࡢ኱㔞ቑṪࢆ㜵ࡄࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ[15][16][17][18][19][20][21]㸬㑅ᢥྲྀ
ỈタഛࡣỈ῝ࡀ῝࠸ᡂᒙ໬ࡉࢀࡓࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡛ࡢ≉ᐃỈ῝ࡢỈࢆྲྀỈ࡛ࡁࡿ᪋タ࡛࠶ࡾ㸪
2 ➨ ❶ ᗎㄽ
ᨺὶỈཬࡧୗὶἙᕝࡢỈ 㸪⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲࡜⃮ᗘ࡞࡝ࡢㄪ⠇ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿࡓࡵ㸪෭࣭ Ỉᨺὶࡢ᭱
ᑠ໬㸪⃮Ỉࡢ᪩ᮇ᤼㝖࡞࡝ࡢ฼⏝┠ⓗ࡟㐺ྜ࡞ᨺὶ࡜Ỉ㉁ྥୖࡢࡓࡵ࡟㐠⏝ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ
[22][23][24][25]㸬ࡲࡓ㸪᭚Ẽ⿦⨨ࡣ㈓Ỉụ࡟ᚠ⎔ὶࢆⓎ⏕ࡉࡏࡿࡇ࡜࡛㸪⾲ᒙ࠿ࡽ୰ᒙ࡟
࠿ࡅ࡚ᚠ⎔ΰྜᒙࢆᙧᡂࡉࡏ㸪᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥࡢ␗ᖖቑṪࡀ㞴ࡋ࠸⎔ቃࢆ⥔ᣢࡍࡿࡇ࡜
ࢆ┠ⓗ࡜ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬ලయⓗ࡟ࡣᚠ⎔ΰྜᒙࡢᣑ኱࡟ࡼࡿ᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥࡢᡂ㛗᮲௳࡛࠶
ࡿගไ㝈ຠᯝཬࡧ⾲ᒙ࡜୰ᒙࡢᚠ⎔࡟ࡼࡿỈ ࡢᕼ㔘ຠᯝ࡟క࠺ᡂ㛗࡟㐺ྜ࡞Ỉ ࡢ⠊ᅖ
ࢆእࢀ㸪᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥࡢᡂ㛗ࢆᢚไࡉࡏࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ[26][27][28]㸬ࡶ࠺1ࡘࡢ᪋タ
ࡣࣂ࢖ࣃࢫ࡜࠸࠺ࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢୖὶ࠿ࡽὶධࡍࡿỈ࡟ᑐࡋ࡚ࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࢆ㏻㐣ࡉࡏࡎୗὶ
Ἑᕝ࡟┤᥋ᨺὶࡉࡏࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ᪋タ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ࡇࢀࡣ฼⏝┠ⓗ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚2ࡘࡢ㐠⏝᪉ἲࡀ
࠶ࡿ㸬1ࡘࡣฟỈ᫬࡟ὶධࡍࡿ㧗⃮ᗘࡢ⃮Ỉ࡟ࡼࡿ㈓Ỉụෆࡢᅵ◁ሁ✚࡞࡝ࡢ⿕ᐖࢆ㜵ࡄࡓ
ࡵ࡟㸪ୗὶἙᕝ࡟┤᥋ᨺὶࡍࡿ᪉ἲ࡜ࡶ࠺1ࡘࡣᖹᖖ᫬࡟ୗὶἙᕝࡢỈ㉁ྥୖࡢࡓࡵ࡟ୖὶ
ἙᕝࡢΎỈࢆୗὶἙᕝ࡟┤᥋ᨺὶࡍࡿ᪉ἲࡀ࠶ࡿ[29][30][31]㸬ࡋ࠿ࡋ࡞ࡀࡽ㸪ࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞
Ỉ㉁ಖ඲᪋タࡢ㐠⏝᪉ἲ࡟క࠺ࢲ࣒㈓ỈụࡢỈ㉁ኚ໬ཪࡣ᭱㐺㐠⏝᪉ἲࡢ᳨ウࡣᑡ࡞࠸㸬
ࡑࡇ࡛ࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢỈ㉁ಖ඲᪋タ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚㐠⏝᪉ἲ࡟ࡼࡿỈ㉁ኚ໬࡜᭱㐺㐠⏝᪉ἲࡢ᳨ウ㸪
ࡲࡓྛ᪋タࡢ㐃ᦠ㐠⏝ࢆ㏻ࡌࡓࢲ࣒㈓ỈụࡢỈ㉁᭱㐺໬࡟㛵ࡍࡿ᳨ウࢆ⾜࠺ᚲせࡀ࠶ࡿ㸬
௨ୖࡢࡼ࠺࡞⫼ᬒ࠿ࡽᮏ◊✲ࡢ┠ⓗ࡜ࡋ࡚ࡣᮾி㒔㸪ᇸ⋢┴࡜⛛∗ᕷࡢỈ㐨⏝Ỉཬࡧ℺
₅⏝Ỉ ࡢ౪ ⤥࡟ 㔜せ࡞ ᙺ๭ ࢆᢸ ࡗ࡚ ࠸ࡿ ᾆᒣ ࢲ࣒࡟ ࠾ࡅࡿ 3 ḟඖ †἟⏕ ែ⣔ ࣔࢹࣝ
ELCOM-CAEDYM ࢆ⏝࠸࡚༑ศ࡞෌⌧ィ⟬⤖ᯝ࡟ࡼࡿỈ㉁ண 㛵㐃ࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱࢆᚓ࡚㸪
ᑗ᮶ࡢẼ㇟࡜ὶฟࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸࡚Ẽೃኚື࡟క࠺Ỉ㉁ኚ໬ࡢண ࡜ࡑࡇ࡛ᚓࡽࢀࡿ⤖ᯝࢆ
⏝࠸࡚ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿẼೃኚື࡟㐺ᛂࡋࡓᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࡢ㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛࡢ᭱㐺㐠⏝᪉ἲࢆᥦ᱌ࡍ
ࡿࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬
1.2 ᪤ ࡢ◊✲
1.2.1 ᬮ໬⤖ᯝࡢヲ⣽໬ᡭἲ࡜ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇ࡟㛵ࡍࡿ⌧≧
ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿẼೃኚື࡟ࡼࡿẼ ࡸ㝆Ỉ㔞࡞࡝ࡢኚ໬ࢆ᳨ウࡍࡿࡓࡵ࡟ᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝࡢ
᫬࣭✵㛫ⓗ࡞⢭ᗘࢆྥୖࡉࡏࡿࡇ࡜ࡣ኱஦࡞㐣⛬࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ࡇࡢ᪉ἲ࡜ࡋ࡚ຊᏛⓗࢲ࢘ࣥࢫ
ࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ࡜⤫ィᏛⓗࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢࡀ࠶ࡿ㸬ຊᏛⓗࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ᪉ἲࡣ
RCM(Regional Climate Model)ࢆ⏝࠸ࡓᆅᇦつᶍࡢヲ⣽໬ᡭἲࡀࡼࡃ㐺⏝ࡉࢀ㸪㧗ゎീᗘ
ࡢᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝࡢᚓࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ[32][33][34]㸬ཎࡽ[35]ࡣ IPCC ➨ 4 ḟሗ࿌᭩࡟ࡼࡿ
A2 ࢩࢼࣜ࢜᥇⏝ࡋ㸪MIROC(Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate)࠿ࡽᚓࡽ
ࢀࡓ⤖ᯝࢆ⏝࠸㸪RCM ࡟ࡼࡿ᱁Ꮚ㛫㝸 3 km ࡢ㧗ゎീᗘࡢᑗ᮶ண ࢆ⾜࠸㸪2070 ᖺ௦࡟
࠾ࡅࡿኪ㛫ࡢࣄ࣮ࢺ࢔࢖ࣛࣥࢻᙉᗘࡣ 2000 ᖺ௦࡟ẚ࡭࡚⣙ 20%௨ୖᙉࡲࡿ⤖ᯝࢆᚓࡓ㸬
ࡲࡓ㸪㣤ሯࡽ[36]ࡣྡྂᒇ࡟࠾ࡅࡿゎീᗘ 1 km ࡢࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ 2000 ᖺ௦
࡟ ẚ ࡭ ࡚ 2070 ᖺ ௦ ࡢ ᖹ ᆒ Ẽ ࡀ ⣙ 3.0 Υ ୖ ᪼ ࡍ ࡿ ⤖ ᯝ ࢆ ♧ ࡋ ࡓ 㸬 Adachi ࡽ [37] ࡣ
RAMS(Regional Atmospheric Modeling Systems)ࢆ⏝࠸㸪✵㛫ゎീᗘ 3 km ࡢࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ
1.2 ᪤ ࡢ◊✲ 3
࣮ࣜࣥࢢࢆ⾜࠸㸪
2000 ᖺ௦࠿ࡽ 2070 ᖺ௦࡟࠿ࡅ࡚ࡢᆅୖẼ ࡢୖ᪼࡟Ẽೃኚືࡀ 2.0Υ㸪
㒔ᕷ໬ࡀ 0.5Υᐤ୚ࡍࡿ⤖ᯝࡀᚓࡽࢀࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪⤫ィᏛⓗࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ Hay
ࡽ[38]ࡣ⦋ᗘ࡜⤒ᗘ㸪ᶆ㧗ࢆ⊂❧ኚᩘ㸪ᑐ㇟ᆅᇦࡢ᪥㝆Ỉ㔞㸪᪥᭱పẼ ࡸ᭱㧗Ẽ ࢆ⿕
ㄝ᫂ኚᩘ࡜ࡍࡿ㔜ᅇᖐࢆ౑⏝ࡋࡓ㸬Ueyama ࡽ[39]ࡣᶆ㧗࡜㛤ᨺᗘ㸪ഴᩳᗘ㸪Ỉᇦᗘ࡞࡝
ࡢᆅᙧせᅉ࡜Ẽೃࣔࢹࣝࡢᆅ⾲㠃Ẽ ࢆ⊂❧ኚᩘ㸪ᆅⅬࡢᆅୖẼ ࢆ⿕ㄝ᫂ኚᩘ࡜ࡍࡿ㔜
ᅇᖐᘧࢆ⏝࠸࡚⤫ィᏛⓗࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ㸬
ࡉࡽ࡟㸪⣔⤫ⓗㄗᕪ࡜࠸࠺ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࢆ⿵ṇࡍࡿࡓࡵ㸪ᑐ㇟せ⣲ࡢ㢖ᗘศᕸࢆᣢࡘ⤫ィⓗ
࡞ᛶ㉁ࢆ฼⏝ࡍࡿࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇࡀ⾜ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ[40][41]㸬Wood ࡽ[42]ࡣほ ್࡜ࣔࢹࣝ࡟ࡼ
ࡿண ್࡜ࡢ㛫࡛ࠊ஫࠸ࡢ㡰ᗎ⤫ィ㔞ࢆ㛵㐃࡙ࡅࡿ࣐ࢵࣆࣥࢢࢸ࣮ࣈࣝࢆసᡂࡋ㸪ྠࢸ࣮
ࣈࣝࢆ฼⏝ࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡛ᑗ᮶ண ್ࡢࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ㸬࡞࠾㸪Harrold ࡽ[43]ࡣ⌧ᅾ
࡜ᑗ᮶ࡢࣔࢹࣝࡢฟຊ್ࡢ㛫࡛㸪㡰ᗎ⤫ィ㔞ࡢኚ໬ࡢẚࢆồࡵ㸪ྠẚࢆほ ್࡟㐺⏝ࡍࡿ
ࡇ࡜࡛ᑗ᮶ண ್࡟ᑐࡋ࡚ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇࢆ⾜ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬Ines and Hansen[44]ࡣ᪥㝆Ỉ㔞㢖
ᗘ࡜ᙉᗘ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚࣐࢞ࣥศᕸࢆ㐺⏝ࡋࡓ㸬Baigorria ࡽ[45]ࡣ᪥᭱ప࣭᭱㧗Ẽ ࡟ṇつศᕸ㸪
᪥✚⟬᪥ᑕ㔞࡟࣮࣋ࢱศᕸࢆ㐺⏝ࡋࡓ㸬୰ὠᕝ[46]ࡣẼ 㸪㢼㏿㸪‵ᗘࡣṇつศᕸ㸪㝆Ỉ
㔞࡜㝆㞷㔞ࡀ࣐࢞ࣥศᕸࢆ⏝࠸࡚ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ㸬
1.2.2 ẼೃኚືࡀỈ㈨※࡟ཬࡰࡍᙳ㡪࡟㛵ࡍࡿ⌧≧
Ỉ㈨※ศ㔝࡟࠾ࡅࡿẼೃኚື࡟㛵ࡍࡿ◊✲ࡣ1980ᖺ௦୰㡭࠿ࡽάⓎ࡟㐍ࢇ࡛࠸ࡿ㸬඲ᆅ
⌫ⓗ࡞ẼೃኚືࡀᆅᇦࡢỈ㈨※࡟ཬࡰࡍᙳ㡪ࢆ᳨ウࡍࡿࡓࡵ࡟⡿ᅜࡢࢧࢡ࣓ࣛࣥࢺὶᇦࢆ
ᑐ㇟࡜ࡋࡓGleick[47]ࡢ◊✲ࢆጞࡵ㸪ከᵝ࡞ศᯒ᪉ἲㄽࢆ㏻ࡌࡓ◊✲ࡀ⾜ࢃࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬≉
࡟Ḣᕞ㐃ྜ(European Union, EU)ࡣCHESS(Climate, Hydrochemistry and Economics of
Surface-water System)ࣉࣟࢪ࢙ࢡࢺ࡛࣮ࣚࣟࢵࣃ࡟࠶ࡿ」ᩘࡢὶᇦ࡟Ẽೃኚືࢩࢼࣜ࢜
ࢆ㐺⏝ࡋ࡚Ỉ㉁ᙳ㡪ホ౯ࡢࡓࡵࡢ᪉ἲࢆ♧ࡋࡓ㸬SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)
ࣔࢹࣝ࡜QUESTOR(QUality Evaluation and Simulation Tool for River-systems)ࣔࢹ
ࣝࢆ⏝࠸㸪ᑗ᮶ࡢẼೃኚືࡀỈᩥ㸫Ỉ㉁࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪ࢆ㛵ࡍࡿ◊✲ࢆ㐍ࢇ࡛࠸ࡿ㸬
Bouraouiࡽ[48]ࡣ࢖ࢠࣜࢫࡢYorkshireᆅ᪉࡟࠶ࡿOuse Riverὶᇦ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ6ࡘࡢẼೃኚ
ືࢩࢼࣜ࢜ࢆసᡂࡋ࡚SWATࣔࢹࣝ࡟㐺⏝ࡋࡓ㸬ࡑࡢ⤖ᯝ㸪Ẽೃኚື࡟క࠺⥲❅⣲(Total
Nitrogen)࡜⥲ࣜࣥ(Total Phosphorus)ࡢởᰁ㈇Ⲵ㔞ࡣࡑࢀࡒࢀ6࠿ࡽ27%ࡲ࡛㸪5࠿ࡽ34%
ࡲ࡛ቑຍࡍࡿ⤖ᯝࢆᚓࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪Bouraouiࡽ[49]ࡣẼೃኚື࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ᖺᖹᆒᰤ㣴≀㉁ởᰁ
㈇Ⲵ㔞࡜෤Ꮨὶฟ㔞ࡣቑຍࡋ㸪✚㞷㠃✚ࡣῶᑡࡍࡿ࡜ண ࡋ㸪Sefton and Boorman[50]ࡣ
2™CO 2 ࡢ(஧㓟໬Ⅳ⣲ಸቑ)ࢩࢼ࡛ࣜ࢜࢖ࢠࣜࢫࡢ39ࡘࡢὶᇦ࡟ᑐࡍࡿὶฟࢆศᯒࡋࡓ⤖
ᯝ㸪ᮾ㒊ᆅᇦࡣὶฟῶᑡ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ᖸࡤࡘ⿕ᐖࡀቑຍࡍࡿ࡜ண ࡋࡓ㸬Merrittࡽ[51]ࡣA2
࡜B2ࢩࢼࣜ࢜ࢆ⏝࠸࡚OkanaganὶᇦࡢẼೃኚືࡢᙳ㡪ࢆศᯒࡋࡓ⤖ᯝ㸪᫓Ꮨࡢ⼥㞷ࡀ᪩
ࡃ㉳ࡇࡋ࡚ὶฟ㔞ࡢῶᑡࢆண ࡋ㸪୍᪉㸪Zhangࡽ[52]ࡣA2࡜B2ࢩࢼࣜ࢜ࢆ⏝࠸࡚Luohe
ᕝࡢὶฟ㔞ࢆண ࡋ࡚ᑗ᮶(2050ᖺ)ࡢᖹᆒὶฟ㔞ࡀ10%㸪≉࡟᫓Ꮨࡢὶฟ㔞ࡀ60%ቑຍࡍ
ࡿ࡜ண ࡋࡓ㸬De Stasioࡽ[53]ࡣ໭⡿ࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ஧㓟໬Ⅳ⣲ࡀቑຍࡍࡿࢩࢼࣜ࢜
4 ➨ 1 ❶ ᗎㄽ
࡛ᡂᒙᙧᡂ᫬ᮇࡢ▷⦰㸪ᡂᒙᙉᗘ࡜ᮇ㛫ࡢቑຍ㸪ኟᏘ⾲ᒙỈ ࡢቑຍཬࡧὶ㔞ῶᑡ࡟ࡼࡿ
␃᫬㛫ࡢቑຍ࡞࡝࡟ᙳ㡪ࢆ୚࠼ࡿࡇ࡜ࢆ♧ࡋࡓ㸬Tanerࡽ[54]ࡣẼೃኚື࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ᑗ᮶ࢲ
࣒㈓Ỉụࡢ⾲ᒙ࡜పᒙࡢỈ ࡀୖ᪼ࡋ࡚Ỉ ㌍ᒙࡀ῝ࡃ࡞ࡾ㸪ࡉࡽ࡟㸪Ἑᕝ࠿ࡽὶධࡍࡿ
ᰤ㣴ሷࡢ㈇Ⲵࡀቑຍࡋ㸪᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥࡢᡂ㛗ࢆಁ㐍ࡍࡿ⤖ᯝࢆᚓࡽࢀࡓ㸬὾ཱྀࡽ[55]
ࡣ⌧ᅾẼೃ(1979~2000ᖺ)࡜ᑗ᮶Ẽೃ(2079~2100ᖺ)ࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸࡚⍇⍈†࣭ᾷᕝὶᇦ࡟࠾
ࡅࡿὶฟࢆྵࡵࡓ⏕ែ⎔ቃ࡟ཬࡰࡍᙳ㡪ࡢ᳨ウࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ⤖ᯝ㸪ኟᏘ࡟ὶฟ㔞ࡀቑຍࡍࡿഴ
ྥࢆぢ࠸ࡔࡋ㸪Ẽ ୖ᪼࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ἙᕝỈ ࡢୖ᪼࡜ప࠸ ᗘࢆዲࡴ㨶㢮ศᕸࡀῶᑡࡍࡿ⤖
ᯝࢆண ࡋࡓ㸬
1.2.3 Ỉ㉁ಖ඲᪋タࡢ㐠⏝ཬࡧຠᯝ࡟㛵ࡍࡿ⌧≧
ࢲ࣒㈓ỈụࡢỈ㉁ಖ඲ࡢࡓࡵ࡟タ⨨ࡉࢀࡓࣇ࢙ࣥࢫ㸪㑅ᢥྲྀỈ᪋タཬࡧ᭚Ẽ⿦⨨ࡢ㐠⏝
࡟ࡼࡿỈ㉁ಖ඲࡜ྥୖ࡟㛵ࡍࡿ◊✲ࡣከ࠸ࡀ㸪ࣂ࢖ࣃࢫࡢタ⨨஦౛࡜ࡑࢀ࡟క࠺㐠⏝ຠᯝ
ཬࡧホ౯࡟㛵ࡍࡿ◊✲ࡣᑡ࡞࠸㸬Asaeda ࡽ[15]ࡣ㸪ᑎෆࢲ࣒࡟࠾ࡅࡿࢲ࣒ෆࡢ㧗࠸⸴㢮⃰
ᗘࢆ⟶⌮ࡍࡿࡓࡵ࡟ࣇ࢙ࣥࢫࢆタ⨨ࡋ࡚ୖὶ㒊࠿ࡽὶධࡍࡿᰤ㣴ሷࡢᥦ౪ࢆ㐽᩿ࡉࡏࡿࡇ
࡜࡟ࡼࡾࢲ࣒ࡢ⸴㢮ᡂ㛗ࢆᢚไࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࢆホ౯ࡋࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ࣇ࢙ࣥࢫࡣ⡆༢࡞タ⨨ࡀ࡛ࡁ
ࡿࡋ㸪タ⨨࡜㐠⏝㈝⏝ࡶ᭚Ẽ⿦⨨ࡢ 75%⛬ᗘ࡜࡞ࡿ㸬Chung ࡽ[56]ࡣ 2 ḟඖ†἟Ỉ㉁ࣔࢹ
ࣝ(CE-QUAL-W2)ࢆ⏝࠸࡚㡑ᅜࡢ 3 ␒┠ࡢ㈓Ỉᐜ㔞࡛࠶ࡿ Daecheong ࢲ࣒࡟࠾ࡅࡿࣇ࢙
ࣥࢫࡢタ⨨࡟ࡼࡿࢡࣟࣟࣇ࢕ࣝ⃰ᗘࡢኚ໬ࢆ᳨ウࡋࡓ㸬ࡑࡢ⤖ᯝ㸪タ⨨ሙᡤ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ῬỈ
ᖺ(2001 ᖺ)ࡣ 11.2~40.3%㸪ᖹỈᖺ(2006 ᖺ)ࡣ 20.3~56.7%ࢆῶᑡࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬
㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛ(Selective Withdrawal System)࡟㛵ࡋ࡚▮ᓥࡽ[57]ࡣ†἟Ỉ㉁ࣔࢹࣝࢆ⏝࠸
࡚Ẋࢲ࣒࡟ࡘ࠸࡚㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛࡢ㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ୗὶἙᕝ࡬ࡢ෭Ỉᨺὶ࡜ኟᏘࡢ㈓Ỉ఩ኚື
ࡀᑠࡉ࠸᫬࡟Ⓨ⏕ࡍࡿ Ỉᨺὶࢆ㜵ࡄࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ᡂᒙ໬ࡉࢀ࡚࠾ࢀࡤ㸪⃮Ỉࡢ
ᣑᩓࢆῶᑡࡉࡏ㸪ࡼࡾከࡃࡢ SS ࢆᨺὶࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿࡇ࡜ࢆ♧ࡋࡓ㸬Ryu ࡽ[58]ࡣ
CE-QUAL-W2 ࣔࢹࣝࢆ⏝࠸࡚ Soyang ࢲ࣒࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⃮Ỉ㔞つᶍ࡟క࠺㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛࡢ㐠
⏝ຠᯝࢆホ౯ࡋࡓ㸬㈓Ỉụࡢ⥲㈓Ỉ㔞࡟ᑐࡋࡓ SS ࡢ⃰ᗘࡀ 25.0 mg/L ௨ୖࡢ⃮Ỉ㔞ࡢ๭
ྜࡀ 0.3~0.6 ࡢ⠊ᅖ࡛ࡣ㑅ᢥྲྀỈࡀἙᕝୗὶ࡬ࡢ⃮Ỉᨺὶᮇ㛫ࢆῶᑡࡉࡏ࡚㸪0.83 ࡢሙྜ
ࡣ⃮Ỉᨺὶᮇ㛫ࡀቑ࠼ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀศ࠿ࡗࡓ㸬᭚Ẽ⿦⨨࡟㛵ࡍࡿ◊✲࡛ࡣ Kortmann ࡽ[59]ࡣ
᭚Ẽᚠ⎔⿦⨨ࡢ㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡗ࡚⸛⸴㢮(Anabaena sp., Aphanizomenon sp.)ࡢ⸴㢮␗ᖖቑṪ
⌧㇟ࡀῶᑡࡋ㸪ඃ༨✀ࡢ⸛⸴㢮࠿ࡽ⥳⸴㢮࡜⌛⸴㢮࡟ኚ໬ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࢆሗ࿌ࡋࡓ㸬Cooke ࡽ
[60]ࡣᡂᒙࢆ◚ቯ࡛ࡁࡿேᕤ᭚Ẽࡣ⌛⸴㢮ࡢỿ㝆ࢆᢚไࡍࡿࡓࡵ㸪⌛⸴㢮ࡢỿẊ⋡ࢆ㕌໬
ࡉࡏࡿ⤖ᯝࢆᚓࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪Steinberg[61]ࡣࢻ࢖ࢶࡢ Upper Bavaria ࡟࠶ࡿᑠࡉ࠸†἟࡟࠾
ࡅࡿ◊✲࡛ᡂᒙ◚ቯ௨ᚋ㸪⸛⸴㢮ࡣῶᑡࡍࡿࣃࢱ࣮ࣥࡀぢࡽࢀ࡚⥳⸴㢮࡜⌛⸴㢮ࡣቑຍࡉ
ࢀࡓ࡜ሗ࿌ࡋࡓ㸬ࣂ࢖ࣃࢫ࡟㛵ࡋ࡚ࡣ Sumi ࡽ[62]ࡣ᪥ᮏࡢ᪫ࢲ࣒࡟࠾ࡅࡿ 1998~2002 ᖺ
ࡲ࡛ィ 16 ᅇࡢ㧗⃮Ỉࢆࣂ࢖ࣃࢫࡉࡏࡿࡇ࡜࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ὶධᅵ◁㔞ࡢ 80~90%ࢆ㎽ᅇࡉࡏࡿࡇ
࡜ࢆ☜ㄆࡋࡓ㸬⨾࿴ࢲ࣒࡛ࡶ㧗⃮Ỉࢆࡼࡾ᪩ࡃᨺὶࡍࡿ┠ⓗ࡜ࡋ࡚ࣂ࢖ࣃࢫࢆ㐠⏝ࡋ࡚
2007 ᖺࡢ 7 ᭶ࡢὥỈ᫬ࡣ 13 ୓ࢺࣥ㸪9 ᭶࡟Ⓨ⏕ࡋࡓὥỈᮇ࡟ࡣ 36 ୓ࢺࣥࡢᅵ◁ὶධࢆᢚ
1.3 ᮏ◊✲ࡢ┠ⓗ࡜ㄽᩥࡢᵓᡂ 5
ไࡍࡿ⤖ᯝࡀᚓࡽࢀࡓ[30]㸬୍᪉㸪Ⲩᕝὶᇦࡢᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࡣ 2006 ᖺᅜᅵ஺㏻┬ࡢỈ⎔ቃᨵၿ
஦ᴗ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ᖹᖖ᫬࡟ୖὶ㒊ࡢΎỈࢆୗὶ࡬┤᥋ᨺὶ࡛ࡁࡿࣂ࢖ࣃࢫࢆタ⨨ࡋ㸪2007 ᖺ 9
ྕྎ㢼࡟ࡼࡗ࡚Ⓨ⏕ࡋࡓὥỈ௨ᚋࡢ⃮Ỉᨺὶࢆୖὶ㒊ࡢΎỈ࡟௦᭰ࡋ࡚ୗὶほ ᆅⅬ࡟࠾
ࡅࡿ⃮ᗘ 10 ᗘ௨ୖࡢᮇ㛫ࢆ 6 ᪥㛫▷⦰ࡉࡏ࡚ᖹᆒ⃰ᗘࡀపࡃ࡞ࡿຠᯝࡀᚓࡽࢀࡓ㸬
1.3 ᮏ◊✲ࡢ┠ⓗ࡜ㄽᩥࡢᵓᡂ
௨ୖࡢࡼ࠺࡟ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿẼೃኚື࡟ࡼࡿẼ 㸪㝆Ỉ㔞࡞࡝ࡢኚ໬ࡀỈ㈨※࡟ཬࡰࡍᙳ
㡪࡟㛵ࡍࡿ◊✲ࡣከᵝ࡞᪉ἲ࡜ᙧែ࡛㐍ࢇ࡛࠸ࡿ㸬ࡑࡇ࡛ࡣᑗ᮶ண ࡟ᑐࡍࡿ⢭ᗘཬࡧಙ
㢗ᛶࢆྥୖࡉࡏࢀࡤẼೃኚື࡟ࡼࡿኚ໬ࡢ஦๓ண㜵ⓗ࡞ᑐ⟇ᶞ❧࡟ከࡃ㈉⊩ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛
ࡁࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬≉࡟ࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣಙ㢗ᛶࡀ㧗࠸ᑗ᮶ண ࢆ⾜࠺ୖ࡛㸪Ỉ㉁ಖ
඲᪋タࡢ᭱㐺㐠⏝᪉ἲࢆྠ᫬࡟⪃࠼ࢀࡤ㸪ᑗ᮶࡟ྍ⬟ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿỈ㉁ၥ㢟ࡢゎỴ࡟ᙺ❧ࡘ࡜
⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬
௨ୖࡢࡇ࡜࡟ࡼࡾᮏ◊✲࡛ࡣ㸪ࡲࡎ㸪⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿண ࡉࢀࡓẼ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱ࡜ὶฟ
ࢹ࣮ࢱ࡟ෆᅾࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡀࢲ࣒㈓ỈụࡢỈ㉁ண ࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪ࢆ᳨ウࡍࡿ㸬ࡑࡇ
࡛ᚓࡓ⤖ᯝ࡜࡜ࡶ࡟ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿண ࡋࡓẼ㇟ཬࡧὶฟࢹ࣮ࢱࡢࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇ
(bias-correction)ࢆ⾜࠸㸪Ẽ㇟ཬࡧὶฟࢹ࣮ࢱࡢㄗᕪࡢపῶࢆ⾜࠺㸬ࡑࡋ࡚㸪᭱⤊ⓗ࡟⢭ᗘ
ࢆ㧗ࡵࡓẼ㇟ཬࡧὶฟࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸࡚ᑗ᮶ࡢỈ㔞(㈓Ỉ఩)࡜Ỉ㉁ࡢኚ໬ࢆ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟ࡍࡿ㸬
ࡉࡽ࡟㸪ᑗ᮶ࡢࢲ࣒㈓ỈụࡢỈ㉁⟶⌮࡟࠾ࡅࡿ㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛࡢ᭱㐺㐠⏝᪉ἲࡢᥦ᱌ࢆ⾜࠺
ࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬
௨ୗ㸪ᮏㄽᩥࡢᵓᡂ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚♧ࡍ㸬
➨ 2 ❶࡛ࡣ㸪⌧ᅾẼೃ࡟ᑐࡍࡿࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣝࡉࢀࡓࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸࡚㢖ᗘศᕸ࣐ࢵࣆࣥ
ࢢࢆྵࡴ」ᩘࡢࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇࢆ⾜࠸㸪ࡑࢀࡽࢆᐇ ࢹ࣮ࢱ࡜ẚ㍑ࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡟ࡼࡾ⿵ṇᡭἲ
ࡢ⢭ᗘ࡜㐺⏝ᛶ࡟ᑐࡋࡓ᳨ウࢆ⾜࠺㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ᑐ㇟ᆅᇦ(ᾆᒣࢲ࣒)࡟࠾ࡅࡿ 3 ḟඖ†἟⏕ែ
⣔ࣔࢹࣝ࠿ࡽ෌⌧ィ⟬ࡉࢀࡓ⤖ᯝ࡜ࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣝࡉࢀࡓࢹ࣮ࢱཬࡧࡑࡢࢹ࣮ࢱࡢࣂ࢖࢔
ࢫ⿵ṇᚋࡢࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸ࡓィ⟬ࢆ⾜࠸㸪ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡀ†἟ࣔࢹࣝࡢィ⟬⤖ᯝ࡟୚࠼ࡿㄗᕪཬ
ࡧ୙☜ᐇᛶࡢ᳨ウࢆ⾜࠺㸬
➨ 3 ❶࡛ࡣ㸪␲ఝ ᬮ໬ᐇ㦂࠿ࡽᚓࡽࢀࡓᑗ᮶ࡢẼ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱ࡜ࡑࢀࢆ⏝࠸࡚ண ࡉࢀࡓ
ὶฟࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸࡚➨ 2 ❶᳨࡛ウࡋࡓࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇࢆ⾜࠺㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ㉁ண ࡢࡓࡵ࡟ 2002~2010 ᖺࡢ 9 ᖺ㐃⥆ࡢ෌⌧ィ⟬ࢆ⾜࠸᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥ࡟㛵ࡋࡓࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱ
ࢆỴᐃࡍࡿ㸬⿵ṇࡉࢀࡓẼ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱ࡜ὶฟࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸࡚ᑐ㇟ᆅᇦ(ᾆᒣࢲ࣒)࡟࠾ࡅࡿᑗ
᮶Ỉ㉁ண ࢆ⾜࠸㸪ࢲ࣒†ෆ࡜ୗὶἙᕝࡢỈ㉁ኚ໬ࢆホ౯ࡍࡿ㸬
➨ 4 ❶࡛ࡣ㸪ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿᾆᒣࢲ࣒࡟タ⨨࣭㐠⏝ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛࡢ㐠⏝᪉ἲ࡟
క࠺ຠᯝࢆホ౯ࡍࡿ㸬≉࡟㸪ࢲ࣒†ෆ࡛ࡢỈ㉁ၥ㢟࡛࠶ࡿ᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥࡢቑṪ㸪ୗὶ
6 ➨ 1 ❶ ᗎㄽ
Ἑᕝ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ෭࣭ Ỉᨺὶ㸪ࡉࡽ࡟㸪ࢲ࣒†ෆࡢᅵ◁ሁ✚࡜ୗὶἙᕝࡢ⃮Ỉᨺὶࡢၥ㢟ࡢ
3 Ⅼ࡟╔┠ࡋ㸪㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛࡢ㐠⏝᪉ἲ࡟ࡼࡿỈ㉁ኚ໬ࡢ᳨ウࢆ⾜࠸㸪᭱㐺㐠⏝᪉ἲࡢᥦ
᱌ࢆ⾜࠺㸬
➨ 5 ❶࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡣ㸪௨ୖࡢ⪃ᐹࢆࡲ࡜ࡵࡓୖ࡛⤖ㄽࢆ㏙࡭ࡿ㸬
➨ 1 ❶ ཧ⪃ᩥ⊩ 7
̿➨ 1 ❶ཧ⪃ᩥ⊩̿
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8 ➨ 1 ❶ ཧ⪃ᩥ⊩
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1996. Potential effects of global climate change on small north-temperate lakes:
Physics, fish, and plankton. Limnol. Oceanogr., 41, 1136-1149.
[54] Taner, M. Ü., Carleton, J. N. and Wellman, M., 2011. Integrated model projections
➨ 1 ❶ ཧ⪃ᩥ⊩ 11
of climate change impacts on a North American lake. Ecological Modelling, 222,
3380-3393.
[55] ὾ཱྀಇ㞝㸪ᑠᑼ฼἞㸪᳃ⱥ♸㸪2008. ࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࣔࢹࣝࢆ⤌ࡳ㎸ࢇࡔὶᇦ⎔ቃホ౯ࣔ
ࢹࣜࣥࢢ㸪ி㒔኱Ꮫ㜵⅏◊✲ᡤᖺሗ㸪➨ 51 ྕ B, 737-747.
[56] Lee, H. S., Chung, S. W., Choi, J. K. and Min, B. H., 2010. Feasibility of curtain
weir installation for water quality management in Daecheong Reservoir.
Desalination and Water Treatment, 19, 164-172.
[57] ▮ᓥၨ㸪ྜྷᕝᰤ㸪▼㯮₶㸪2006. 㑅ᢥྲྀỈ᪉ᘧࡀࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢ㛗ᮇ࣭▷ᮇࡢỈ㉁ಖ඲
࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪࡟㛵ࡍࡿ◊✲㸪ỈᕤᏛㄽᩥ㞟㸪➨ 50 ᕳ㸪1375-1380.
[58] Ryu, I. G., Chung, S. W. and Yoon, S. W., 2011. Modelling a turbidity current in
Soyang reservoir (Korea) and its control using a selective withdrawal facility.
Water Sci. & Tech., 1864-1872.
[59] Kortmann, R. W., Knoecklein, G. W. and Bonnell, C. H., 1994. Aeration of
Stratified Lakes: Theory and Practice. Lake and Reservoir Management, 8, 99-120.
[60] Cooke, G. D., Welch, E. B., Peterson, S. A. and Newroth, P. R., 1993. Artificial
circulation. “Restoration and management of lakes and reservoirs”. 2 nd. LEWIS,
419-449.
[61] Steinberg, C., 1983. Effects of artificial destratification on the phytoplankton
populations in a small lake. Journal of Plankton Research. 5, 855-864.
[62] Sumi, T., Okano, M. and Takata, Y., 2004. Reservoir sedimentation management
with bypass tunnels in Japan. Proceeding of the Ninth International Symposium
on River Sedimentation, 1036-1043.
12 ➨ 1 ❶ ཧ⪃ᩥ⊩
13
➨ 2 ❶ ຊᏛⓗࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ࡟ࡼࡿࣂ࢖࢔
ࢫࡀࢲ࣒㈓ỈụࡢỈ㉁ண ࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪
2.1 ᴫㄝ
඲⌫Ẽೃࣔࢹࣝ(General Circulation Model:GCM)ࢆ⏝࠸ࡓᑗ᮶ண ィ⟬⤖ᯝࢆ⏝࠸࡚㸪
ẼೃኚືࡀὶᇦỈ㈨※ࡢ㔞ⓗኚ໬࡟ཬࡰࡍᙳ㡪ࢆホ౯ࡋࡓከࡃࡢ◊✲ࡀ࠶ࡿ[1][2]㸬㏻ᖖ
GCM ࣔࢹࣝࡢฟຊ್ࡣ᫬㛫࣭✵㛫ゎീᗘࡀ⢒࠸ࡓࡵ㸪ຊᏛⓗ࠶ࡿ࠸ࡣ⤫ィᏛⓗ࡟ゎീᗘ
ࡢ㧗࠸ࢹ࣮ࢱ࡬࡜ࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣝࡉࢀࡓࢹ࣮ࢱࡀ⏝࠸ࡽࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬ࡋ࠿ࡋ㸪ࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮
ࣝࡉࢀࡓࢹ࣮ࢱ࡟ࡣ㸪⣔⤫ⓗㄗᕪ࡜࠸࠺ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡀྵࡲࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࡓࡵ㸪ࡑࡢ⤖ᯝࢆ⏝࠸࡚
ィ⟬ࢆ⾜࠺ࡍ࡭࡚ࡢண ⤖ᯝ࡟୙☜ᐇᛶࢆ⏕ࡌࡿཎᅉ࡟࡞ࡿ㸬ࡑࢀ࡛㸪ࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞ㄗᕪࢆ
࡝ࡢࡼ࠺࡟᭱ᑠ໬ࡍࡿ࠿࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝࡢಙ㢗ᛶࡀỴᐃࡉࢀࡿ࡜࠸ࡗ࡚ࡶ㐣ゝ࡛ࡣ
࡞࠸㸬ࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞ㄗᕪࢆ᭱ᑠ໬ࡍࡿࡓࡵ࡟」ᩘࡢ⿵ṇᡭἲࡀ㐺⏝ࡉࢀࡿ[3][4][5]㸬ࡇࡢ⿵
ṇ ᡭ ἲ ࡢ ୰ ࡛ ᭱ ࡶ ࡼ ࡃ ⏝ ࠸ ࡽ ࢀ ࡚ ࠸ ࡿ ᡭ ἲ ࡀ 㸪 㢖 ᗘ ศ ᕸ ࣐ ࢵ ࣆ ࣥ ࢢ (Quantile
mapping)[6][7]࡛࠶ࡿ㸬Leung[8]ࡽࡣ⡿ᅜࢥࣟࣥࣅ࢔ᕝὶᇦ࡟࠾ࡅࡿẼೃண ⤖ᯝࢆ⿵ṇ
ࡍࡿࡓࡵࡇࡢᡭἲࢆ㐺⏝ࡋࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪⿵ṇࡉࢀࡓࢹ࣮ࢱ࡟ࡶㄗᕪࡣṧࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀ
ࡿࡀ㸪ࡑࢀࡽࡢ್ࢆࡶ࡜࡟ὶฟィ⟬࡞࡝ࢆ⾜࠺ሙྜ࡟ࡣ㸪ࡑࡇ࡛౑⏝ࡍࡿࣔࢹࣝࡢ⢭ᗘ࡟
㉳ᅉࡍࡿண ⤖ᯝࡢ୙☜ᐇᛶࡀࡉࡽ࡟⏕ࡌࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿ[9][10]㸬
௨ୖࡢࡇ࡜࠿ࡽ㸪ᮏ❶࡛ࡣ⌧ᅾẼೃ࡟ᑐࡍࡿࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣝࡉࢀࡓࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸࡚㢖ᗘ
ศᕸ࣐ࢵࣆࣥࢢࢆྵࡴ」ᩘࡢࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇࢆ⾜࠸㸪ࡑࢀࡽࢆᐇ ࢹ࣮ࢱ࡜ẚ㍑ࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡟
ࡼࡾ⿵ṇᡭἲࡢ᳨ウࢆ⾜࠺㸬ࡉࡽ࡟㸪ᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࡣୖὶ㒊࠿ࡽࢲ࣒ᨺὶཱྀࡲ࡛⣙ 4 km ࡢ⣽
㛗࠸ᆅᙧ࡛࠶ࡾ㸪ὥỈᮇ࡟ὶධࡍࡿ⃮Ỉࡣὶධ㒊ࡢ௜㏆࡛ྠࡌỈ ᒙࢆ㏣ࡗ࡚㈏ධࡍࡿ⌧
㇟ࡶぢࡽࢀࡿ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪୺࡞ὶධἙᕝࡀ 2 ࡘ(ᾆᒣᕝ㸪኱ஂಖ㇂ᕝ)࠶ࡿࡓࡵ㸪㖄┤ 1 ḟඖࣔ
ࢹ࡛ࣝࡣὶධ㒊࠿ࡽࡢ⃮Ỉࡢᣲືࡸ」ᩘࡢὶධἙᕝࡢ⪃៖ࡀᅔ㞴࡛࠶ࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬ࡇ
ࡢࡇ࡜࡟ࡼࡾ㸪ᮏ◊✲࡛ࡣ᭱᪂ 3 ḟඖ†἟⏕ែ⣔ࣔࢹࣝ(ELCOM-CAEDYM)ࢆ⏝࠸࡚෌⌧
ィ⟬ࡋࡓ⤖ᯝ࡜ࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣝࡉࢀࡓࢹ࣮ࢱཬࡧࡑࡢࢹ࣮ࢱࡢࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇᚋࡢࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ
⏝࠸ࡓィ⟬ࢆ⾜࠸㸪ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡀ†἟ࣔࢹࣝࡢィ⟬⤖ᯝ࡟୚࠼ࡿㄗᕪཬࡧ୙☜ᐇᛶࡢ᳨ウࢆ
⾜࠺㸬
14 ➨ 2 ❶ ຊᏛⓗࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ࡟ࡼࡿࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡀࢲ࣒㈓ỈụࡢỈ㉁ண ࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪
2.2 ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇ᪉ἲ࡜᳨ウ
2.2.1 :5) ࢆ⏝࠸ࡓຊᏛⓗࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ
ᮏ◊✲࡛ࡣ⡿ᅜ኱Ẽ◊✲ᡤࢆ୰ᚰ࡜ࡋ࡚㛤Ⓨࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㠀㟼ຊ㡿ᇦẼ㇟ࣔࢹࣝ
WRF(Weather Research Forecasting System)ࢆ⏝࠸࡚Ẽೃ᝟ሗࡢຊᏛⓗࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜ
ࣥࢢࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ⤖ᯝࢆ⏝࠸ࡓ㸬WRF ࡢึᮇ್ཬࡧቃ⏺᮲௳࡟ࡣẼ㇟ᗇ࡜㟁ຊ୰ኸ◊✲ᡤࡢࣉ
ࣟࢪ࢙ࢡࢺ࡟ࡼࡿẼ㇟ᗇ㛗ᮇ෌ゎᯒࢹ࣮ࢱ(JRA25Japanese 25-year ReAnalysis)[11]ࡀ
⏝࠸ࡽࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪WRF ࡢᐇ⾜࡟ᚲせ࡞ᾏỌศᕸ㸪ᾏ㝣ศᕸ㸪ᶆ㧗㸪ᅵተࢱ࢖ࣉ㸪᳜
⏕ࢱ࢖ࣉ➼ࡢ㝣㠃᝟ሗ࡟㛵ࡋ࡚ࡣ⡿ᅜ⎔ቃண ࢭࣥࢱ࣮࡟ࡼࡿ NCEP FNL ࡀ⏝࠸ࡽࢀ࡚
࠸ࡿ㸬ୗ㒊ቃ⏺᮲௳࡜ࡋ࡚ᚲせ࡞ᾏ㠃Ỉ ࡟ࡣ NOAA Optimum Interpolation 1/4 Degree
Daily Sea Surface Temperature Analysis ࡀ⏝࠸ࡽࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬ᮏ◊✲࡛⏝࠸ࡽࢀࡓࢹ࣮ࢱ
ࡣゎീᗘࡢ␗࡞ࡿ 3 ࡘࡢ㡿ᇦࢆࢿࢫࢸ࢕ࣥࢢࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡟ࡼࡾ㸪ࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢࡀ⾜ࢃ
ࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬ࣔࢹࣝࡢỈᖹ᱁Ꮚ㛫㝸ࡣ⢒࠸᪉࠿ࡽ 90 km㸪30 km㸪6 km ࡜࡞ࡿ㸬ྛ㡿ᇦࡀ࢝
ࣂ࣮ࡍࡿ⠊ᅖࢆᅗ ࡟♧ࡋࡓ㸬
✚ศ㛫㝸ࡣ✵㛫ゎീᗘࡢ⢒࠸㡿ᇦ࠿ࡽ㸪
ࡑࢀࡒࢀ 360 ⛊㸪
120 ⛊㸪24 ⛊࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢࡣྛ᭶ẖ࡟⾜࠸㸪ࢫࣆࣥ࢔ࢵࣉᮇ㛫࡜ࡋ
࡚ྛ᭶࡟ඛ❧ࡘ 10 ᪥㛫ࡀ୚࠼ࡽࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬
ᅗ :5) ࡟ࡼࡿィ⟬㡿ᇦ㸪✵㛫ゎീᗘࡢᴫᛕᅗ
2.2.2 ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇ%LDVFRUUHFWLRQ
ᾆᒣࢲ࣒࡟࠾ࡅࡿᖺ⥲㝆Ỉ㔞࡜ࡋ࡚ᖹỈᖺ࡛࠶ࡿ 2000 ᖺࢆᑐ㇟࡜ࡋ㸪WRF ࢆ⏝࠸࡚Ỉ
ᖹ᱁Ꮚ㛫㝸 6 km ࡛ຊᏛⓗࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢࡉࢀࡓ⤖ᯝ࠿ࡽ㸪ᅗ ࡟♧ࡋࡓࡼ࠺࡟㸪
ᾆ ᒣࢲ ࣒ ( ໭ ⦋ 35°57’14’’ 㸪 ᮾ ⤒ 139°3’2’’) ࡟ ୍ ␒㏆ ࠸ ࢢ ࣜ ࢵࢻ (໭ ⦋ 35°57’13’’ 㸪 ᮾ ⤒
139°3’47’’㸪ࣔࢹࣝᶆ㧗 551 m)ࡢ್(௨ୗ㸪
ࠕィ⟬್ࠖ࡜࿧ࡪ)ࢆ㸪ᾆᒣࢲ࣒࡟࠾ࡅࡿほ ್(㞼
㔞࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣ⇃㇂(ࢲ࣒࠿ࡽࡢ 39 km ࡢᆅⅬ)࡜๓ᶫ(ࢲ࣒࠿ࡽࡢ 50 km ᆅⅬ)ࡢᖹᆒ್)ࢆ⏝
࠸࡚ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇࡍࡿ(௨ୗࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇࡉࢀࡓ್ࢆࠕ⿵ṇ್ࠖ࡜࿧ࡪ)㸬࡞࠾㸪ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ
⿵ṇ᪉ἲ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣ㸪௨ୗࡢ 3 ࡘࢆ᳨ウࡍࡿ㸬 2.2 ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇ᪉ἲ࡜᳨ウ 15
ᅗ ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇ࡟⏝࠸ࡓᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࡢィ⟬᱁Ꮚཬࡧ
㞼㔞ィ⟬࡟⏝࠸ࡓ⇃㇂࡜๓ᶫࡢ఩⨨ᅗ
(1) ⥺ᙧᅇᖐᘧ࡟ࡼࡿ⿵ṇἲ/LQHDUUHJUHVVLRQV
ほ ್࡜ィ⟬್ࡢ⥺ᙧᅇᖐᘧ࡟ࡼࡾᚓࡽࢀࡓ㡬ࡁ࠾ࡼࡧษ∦ࡢಀᩘ a, b ࢆ⏝࠸࡚㸪ḟᘧ
࡟ࡼࡾ⿵ṇࡍࡿ㸬
ᇱ
‫ݔ‬ௗ௜
ൌ ܽ ൈ ‫ݔ‬ௗ௜ ൅ ܾ࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭(2.1)
ᇱ
ࡇࡇ࡛‫ݔ‬ௗ௜
ࡣ⿵ṇࡉࢀࡓィ⟬್㸪x di ࡣi␒┠ࡢィ⟬್࡛࠶ࡿ㸬
(2) ᖹᆒ್࡟ࡼࡿ⿵ṇἲ5HODWLYHUDWLRV
ほ ್࡜ィ⟬್ࡢᖹᆒ್ࡢẚࢆ㸪ࡍ࡭࡚ࡢィ⟬್࡟᥃ࡅྜࢃࡏࡿࡇ࡜࡟ࡼࡾ⿵ṇࡍࡿ᪉
ἲ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬
ᇱ
‫ݔ‬ௗ௜
ൌ ‫ݔ‬ௗ௜ ൈ
ఓ೚್ೞ
ఓ೏೙
࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭(2.2)
ࡇࡇ࡛ȝ obs ࡣほ ್ࡢᖹᆒ್㸪ȝ dn ࡣィ⟬್ࡢᖹᆒ್࡛࠶ࡿ㸬
(3) 㢖ᗘศᕸ࣐ࢵࣆࣥࢢ⿵ṇἲ4XDQWLOHPDSSLQJ
ほ ್࡜ィ⟬್ࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢ⣼✚ศᕸ㛵ᩘ(CDF)ࢆసᡂࡋ㸪ḟᘧ࡟ࡼࡾィ⟬್࡟ᑐࡋ࡚࣐
ࢵࣆࣥࢢࢆ⾜࠸⿵ṇࡍࡿ᪉ἲ࡛࠶ࡿ(ᅗ )㸬⿵ṇࡣィ⟬ᮇ㛫ࡍ࡭࡚ࡢẖ᫬ࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸࡚
ฎ⌮ࡍࡿ㸬
16 ➨ 2 ❶ ຊᏛⓗࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ࡟ࡼࡿࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡀࢲ࣒㈓ỈụࡢỈ㉁ண ࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪
ᇱ
ିଵ
‫ݔ‬ௗ௜
ൌ ‫ܨ‬௢௕௦
൫‫ܨ‬ௗ ሺ‫ݔ‬ௗ௜ ሻ൯࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭(2.3)
ିଵ
ࡇࡇ࡛‫ܨ‬௢௕௦
ࡣほ ್ࡢ⣼✚ศᕸ㏫㛵ᩘ㸪 ‫ܨ‬ௗ ࡣィ⟬್ࡢ⣼✚ศᕸ㛵ᩘ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬
㢖ᗘศᕸ࣐ࢵࣆࣥࢢ࡛౑ࢃࢀࡓ⣼✚ศᕸ㛵ᩘ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣ 1)ṇつศᕸ㸪2)࣐࢞ࣥศᕸ㸪3)
࣮࣋ࢱศᕸࢆ᥇⏝ࡋ࡚ࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢ㛵ᩘࢆồࡵࡓ㸬
(a)ṇつศᕸ࡟ࡼࡿ⣼✚ศᕸ㛵ᩘ[12]
݂ ሺ‫ ݔ‬ሻ ൌ
ଵ
ఙξଶగ
݁‫ ݌ݔ‬ቂെ
ሺ௫ିఓሻమ
ଶఙమ
ቃ,
െλ ൏ ‫ ݔ‬൏ λ࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭(2.4)
ࡇࡇ࡛ ȝ ࡣᖹᆒ್㸪ı ࡣᶆ‽೫ᕪ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ィ⟬⠊ᅖࡣെλ ൏ ‫ ݔ‬൏ λ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬
(b) ࣐࢞ࣥศᕸ࡟ࡼࡿ⣼✚ศᕸ㛵ᩘ[13]
݂ ሺ‫ ݔ‬ሻ ൌ
ߙൌ
ሺ௫Ȁఉሻഀషభ ୣ୶୮ሺି௫Ȁఉሻ
ఉ୻ሺ஑ሻ
ఓమ
,
ఙమ
ߚൌ
,
ఙమ
ఓ
‫ݔ‬ǡ ߙǡ ߚ ൐ Ͳ࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭(2.5)
࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭(2.6)
ࡇࡇ࡛ Į ࡣ shape ࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱ㸪ȕ ࡣ scale ࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱ㸪ī(Į)ࡣ࣐࢞ࣥࣇ࢓ࣥࢡࢩ࡛ࣙࣥ࠶
ࡿ㸬ࡓࡔࡋ㸪࣐࢞ࣥศᕸ㛵ᩘ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣᖺᖹᆒ್࡜ᶆ‽೫ᕪࢆ⏝࠸ࡓ᪉ἲ࡜Ꮨ⠇ẖ(᫓3~5
᭶㸪ኟ6~8 ᭶㸪⛅9~11 ᭶㸪෤12~2 ᭶)࡟ศࡅ࡚ᖹᆒ್࡜ᶆ‽೫ᕪࢆồࡵࡿ 2 ࡘࡢ᪉ἲ
ࢆ⪃៖ࡋ࡚࣐ࢵࣆࣥࢢࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ㸬
(c) ࣮࣋ࢱศᕸ࡟ࡼࡿ⣼✚ศᕸ㛵ᩘ[14][15]
݂ ሺ‫ ݔ‬ሻ ൌ ቂ
୻ሺ஑ାஒሻ
ቃ ‫ ݔ‬ఈିଵሺͳ െ ‫ݔ‬ሻఉିଵ, Ͳ ൑ ‫ ݔ‬൑ ͳ, ߙǡ ߚ ൐ Ͳ࣭࣭࣭(2.7)
୻ሺ஑ሻ୻ሺஒሻ
ఓሺଵିఓሻ
ߙ ൌ ߤቂ
ࡇࡇ࡛ Į,
ఙమ
െ ͳቃ,
ఓሺଵିఓሻ
ߚ ൌ ሺͳ െ ߤሻ ቂ
ఙమ
െ ͳቃ࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭(2.8)
ȕ ࡣࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱ㸪ィ⟬⠊ᅖࡣ Ͳ ൑ ‫ ݔ‬൑ ͳ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬
(d) ⤒㦂ⓗ⣼✚ศᕸ㛵ᩘ[16][17]
ଵ
݂ ሺ‫ ݔ‬ሻ ൌ σ௡௜ୀଵ ͳሼ௑೔ஸ௫ሽ ࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭(2.9)
ࡇࡇ࡛ n ࡣࢹ࣮ࢱᩘ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬
௡
ࡇࡢ᪉ἲࡣᐇ ್࡜ィ⟬್ࢆࡑࢀࡒࢀᑠࡉ࠸㡰࡟୪࡭㸪୪࡭᭰࠼ࡓᐇ ್ࢆィ⟬್࡟ධ
ࢀ᥮࠼ඖࡢィ⟬್ࡢ㡰␒࡟ᡠࡋ㸪ィ⟬್ࡢ⿵ṇࢆ⾜࠺㸬
2.2 ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇ᪉ἲ࡜᳨ウ 17
ᅗ 㢖ᗘศᕸ࣐ࢵࣆࣥࢢ⿵ṇἲࡢᴫᛕᅗ
2.2.3 ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇ࡟౫ࡽ࡞࠸Ẽ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱࡢ⿵ṇ
㈓ỈụỈ㉁ண ィ⟬࡟⏝࠸ࡿẼ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱࡣ㸪Ẽ 㸪‵ᗘ㸪㢼㏿㸪㢼ྥ㸪㞼㔞㸪᪥ᑕ㔞㸪
Ẽᅽࡢ 7 㡯┠࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ࡇࢀࡽࡢ㡯┠ࡢ࠺ࡕ㸪㢼ྥࡣᒣ㛫㒊࡟఩⨨ࡍࡿࢲ࣒࿘㎶ࡢᆅᙧࢆ཯
ᫎࡋࡓ≉ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿࡓࡵ㸪ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ࡟ࡼࡿ⿵ṇࡀᅔ㞴࡛࠶ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀண᝿ࡉࢀࡿ㸬ࡑࡇ࡛ẖ᫬
ࡢほ 㢼ྥ࡜ࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ࠿ࡽᚓࡽࢀࡓィ⟬㢼ྥࢆ 16 ᪉఩࡛ศ㢮ࡋ㸪ィ⟬㢼ྥẖ࡟
ほ ್ࡢ᭱㢖್ࡢ㢼ྥ࡛࠶ࡿ 22.5°࠶ࡿ࠸ࡣ 180°ࢆ㸪78.75°㸺ィ⟬㢼ྥ㸺303.75°ࡢ⠊ᅖࡣ
180°㸪ࡑࢀ௨እࡢィ⟬㢼ྥ࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡣ 22.5°࡜㑅ᢥⓗ࡟⿵ṇࡍࡿ⤫ィⓗ࡞⿵ṇࢆ⾜࠺ࡇ࡜
࡜ࡋࡓ(ᅗ )㸬
ᅗ ࢲ࣒ᆅⅬ࡟࠾ࡅࡿほ ࣭ィ⟬㢼ྥࡢฟ⌧㢖ᗘ
18 ➨ 2 ❶ ຊᏛⓗࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ࡟ࡼࡿࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡀࢲ࣒㈓ỈụࡢỈ㉁ண ࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪
2.2.4 ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇ⤖ᯝࡢ᳨ウ
2.2.2 ࡟㏙࡭ࡓࡼ࠺࡟」ᩘࡢ⿵ṇ⿵ἲ࡟ࡼࡿࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇࢆ⾜ࡗ࡚ࡑࡢ⤖ᯝࢆᐇ ࢹ࣮
ࢱ ࡜ ẚ ㍑ ࡋ ࡓ 㸬 ᐇ ࢹ ࣮ ࢱ ཬ ࡧ ⿵ ṇ ࡟ ౑ ࢃ ࢀ ࡓ ࢹ ࣮ ࢱ ࡣ 2000 ᖺ ࡢ ࢹ ࣮ ࢱ ࡛ ࠶ ࡾ 㸪
ELCOM-CAEDYM ࣔࢹࣝࡢධຊࢹ࣮ࢱ࡛⏝࠸ࡿẼ 㸪‵ᗘ㸪㢼㏿㸪᪥ᑕ㔞㸪㞼㔞㸪Ẽᅽ(㢼
ྥࡣ 2.2.3 ࡟㏙࡭ࡓ᪉ἲ)ࢆ⏝࠸࡚ồࡵࡓ㸬
(1) 㡯┠ẖࡢ⿵ṇ⢭ᗘ
ẚ㍑㡯┠࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ᐇ ࢹ࣮ࢱ࡜⿵ṇ᪉ἲẖ࡟ࡼࡿ⿵ṇ್࡜ࡢR 2 ࢆẚ㍑ࡍࡿ࡜㸪Ẽ 㸪Ẽ
ᅽ㸪᪥ᑕ㔞㸪㞼㔞㸪‵ᗘ㸪㢼㏿ࡢ㡰࡟⢭ᗘࡀ㧗࠸ࡇ࡜ࡀศ࠿ࡿ(⾲ )㸬ࡇࡢ㡰␒࡛㸪Ẽ ࠿ࡽ㞼㔞ࡲ࡛ࡣR 2ࡀ 0.5 ࢆ㉸࠼࡚࠾ࡾ㸪┦㛵ࡀ࠶ࡿ࡜ุ᩿ࡉࢀࡿࡀ㸪㢼㏿࡜㢼ྥࡣR 2 ࡀ 0.1
௨ୗ࡜࡞ࡾ㸪࡯࡜ࢇ࡝┦㛵ࡀ࡞࠸㸬ᚑࡗ࡚㸪ࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ㢼ྥ࣭㢼㏿ࡢࡼ࠺࡟ᒁᆅ
ᛶࡀᙉ࠸㡯┠࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣ㸪6 km᱁Ꮚ⛬ᗘࡢࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ࡛ࡣ⿵ṇࢆ⾜ࡗ࡚ࡶ༑ศ࡟
⾲⌧ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁ࡞࠸㸬≉࡟㢼ྥࡢR 2 ࡀ᭱ప࡛࠶ࡾ㸪 ࡟♧ࡋࡓ⤫ィⓗ࡞⿵ṇࡢ᪉
ࡀ㸪ಙ㢗ᛶࡀ㧗࠸ࡇ࡜ࡀ᫂ࡽ࠿࡛࠶ࡿ㸬
(2) ⿵ṇ᪉ἲẖࡢ⿵ṇ⢭ᗘ
⿵ṇ᪉ἲẖ࡟ࡼࡿ⢭ᗘࢆ᳨ウࡋࡓ㸬R 2 ุ࡛᩿ࡍࡿ࡜Ꮨ⠇࡟ࡼࡿCDF≉ᛶࢆ⪃៖ࡋࡓ᪉ἲ
5(Quantile mapping㸪Ꮨ⠇ᖹᆒ್)ࡢ⢭ᗘࡀ㧗࠸ࡇ࡜ࡀከ࠸ࡇ࡜ࡀศ࠿ࡿ(⾲ )㸬୍␒R2
ࡀ㧗ࡃ㸪Ỉ㉁ண ࡟኱ࡁ࡞ᙳ㡪ࢆཬࡰࡍẼ ࡟ᑐࡍࡿAME࡜RMSEࢆࡳࡿ࡜㸪᪉ἲ 5 ࡢ್
ࡀ ୍ ␒ ᑠࡉ ࡃ ⢭ ᗘ ࡀ 㧗 ࠸ 㸬 ḟ ࡟R 2 ࡀ 㧗 ࠿ ࡗ ࡓ Ẽ ᅽ ࢆ ࡳࡿ ࡜ 㸪 AME ࡜ RMSE ࡛ ࡣ ᪉ ἲ
1(Linear regressions)ࡀ᭱ࡶⰋ࠸⤖ᯝ࡛࠶ࡿࡀ㸪2000 ᖺࡢᖹᆒẼᅽࡀ 965.8 hPa࡛࠶ࡿࡇ
࡜ࢆ⪃៖ࡍࡿ࡜㸪᪉ἲ 2~5 ࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡶ኱ࡁ࡞㐪࠸ࡣ࡞࠸㸬ࡲࡓ㸪Ẽᅽ࡜࡯ࡰྠࡌR 2࡛࠶ࡗ
ࡓ᪥ᑕ㔞ࢆࡳࡿ࡜㸪᪉ἲ 5 ࠶ࡿ࠸ࡣ᪉ἲ 1(Linear regressions)ࡢㄗᕪࡀᑠࡉ࠸㸬ࡑࡢ௚ࡢ
㡯┠࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡶ㸪᪉ἲ 1 ࠶ࡿ࠸ࡣ᪉ἲ 5 ࡢ⢭ᗘࡀ㧗࠸⤖ᯝ࡜࡞ࡗࡓ㸬ࡋ࠿ࡋ㸪᪉ἲ 1 ࢆᑗ
᮶ண ᫬࡟㐺ᛂࡍࡿሙྜ㸪⥺ᙧ⿵ṇࡣ㸪㐣኱ホ౯ࡸ㐣ᑠホ౯ࡉࢀࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿࡓࡵ㸪᪉
ἲ 5 ࡀ୍␒Ᏻᐃࡋࡓ⿵ṇ⤖ᯝ࡟࡞ࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬ࡉࡽ࡟㸪‵ᗘ࡜㞼㔞࡟ࡘ࠸࡚࣮࣋ࢱศ
ᕸࡶ⾜ࡗࡓࡀ㸪┤᥋ẚ㍑ࡋࡓ᪉ἲ 1 ࡜࣐࢞ࣥศᕸࢆ⏝࠸㸪Ꮨ⠇ኚ໬ࢆ⪃㔞ࡋ࡚࣐ࢵࣆࣥࢢ
ࡋࡓ᪉ἲ 5 ࡼࡾప࠸⢭ᗘࡀᚓࡓ㸬㢼ྥ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࡍ࡭࡚ࡢ⿵ṇࡼࡾ⤫ィⓗ⿵ṇࢆ⾜ࡗࡓሙ
ྜ࡟R2 (0.42)ࡀ㧗ࡃ㸪AME(27.58r)࡜RMSE(74.57r)ࡀᑠࡉࡃ࡞ࡿ⤖ᯝࡀᚓࡓ㸬㢼㏿࡟ࡘ
࠸࡚ࡣ㸪࠸ࡎࢀࡢ᪉ἲ࡛ࡶ⢭ᗘࡣప࠸ࡓࡵ㸪௒ᚋࡣࡉࡽ࡟ヲ⣽࡞ࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢࢆ⾜
࠺࡞࡝ࡢ᳨ウࡀᚲせ࡛࠶ࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬
2.2 ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇ᪉ἲ࡜᳨ウ 19
⾲ ࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇἲ࡟ࡼࡿᐇ ್࡜ࡢ⤫ィ್
Ẽ ‵ᗘ
㢼㏿
㢼ྥ
᪥ᑕ㔞
Ẽᅽ
㞼㔞
(Υ)
(0-1)
(㹫/s)
(°)
(W/m2)
(hPa)
(0-1)
0.380
0.088
0.002
0.600
0.610
0.502
0.382
0.085
0.001
0.592
᪉ἲ 0*
᪉ἲ 1*
᪉ἲ 2*
R2
AME
RMSE
0.865
᪉ἲ 3*
᪉ἲ 4*
᪉ἲ 5*
0.879
0.454
0.083
0.003
0.610
0.599
0.486
᪉ἲ 6*
䠉
0.399
䠉
䠉
䠉
䠉
0.484
᪉ἲ 7*
0.865
0.401
0.084
0.000
0.565
0.596
0.475
᪉ἲ 0
2.613
0.160
2.103
111.54
105.06
13.20
0.197
᪉ἲ 1
2.441
0.141
1.409
80.14
82.67
2.924
0.210
᪉ἲ 2
2.449
0.156
1.946
82.08
77.32
3.222
0.202
᪉ἲ 3
2.487
0.151
1.807
96.53
91.33
3.061
0.218
᪉ἲ 4
2.487
0.151
1.822
92.48
78.12
3.061
0.218
᪉ἲ 5
2.328
0.139
1.843
92.41
75.39
3.102
0.218
᪉ἲ 6
䠉
0.141
䠉
䠉
䠉
䠉
0.190
᪉ἲ 7
2.429
0.141
1.791
19.31
79.38
3.029
0.189
᪉ἲ 0
3.479
0.205
2.919
140.47
200.52
13.85
0.282
᪉ἲ 1
3.205
0.175
1.983
90.82
141.31
4.000
0
0.281
᪉ἲ 2
3.218
0.201
2.657
106.97
142.35
4.434
0.282
᪉ἲ 3
3.262
0.195
2.464
125.51
150.03
4.235
0.304
᪉ἲ 4
3.262
0.195
2.460
120.94
148.23
4.235
0.304
᪉ἲ 5
3.089
0.180
2.473
119.50
144.02
4.302
0.310
᪉ἲ 6
䠉
0.189
䠉
䠉
䠉
䠉
0.313
᪉ἲ 7
3.263
0.190
2.476
59.59
157.46
4.321
0.314
*᪉ἲ 0*䠖┤᥋ẚ㍑(⿵ṇ࡞ࡋ)䠈᪉ἲ 1*䠖⥺ᙧ⿵ṇ䠈᪉ἲ 2*䠖ᖹᆒ್࡟ࡼࡿ⿵ṇ䠈᪉ἲ 3*䠖ṇつศ
ᕸ࡟ࡼࡿ⿵ṇ䠈᪉ἲ 4*䠖ᖺᖹᆒ್ࢆ⪃៖ࡋࡓ࣐࢞ࣥศᕸ࡟ࡼࡿ⿵ṇ㸪5*䠖Ꮨ⠇ẖࡢᖹᆒ್ࢆ⪃៖
ࡋࡓ࣐࢞ࣥศᕸ࡟ࡼࡿ⿵ṇ㸪᪉ἲ 6*䠖࣮࣋ࢱศᕸ࡟ࡼࡿ⿵ṇ㸪᪉ἲ 7*䠖⤒㦂ⓗศᕸ࡟ࡼࡿ⿵ṇ
20 ➨ 2 ❶ ຊᏛⓗࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ࡟ࡼࡿࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡀࢲ࣒㈓ỈụࡢỈ㉁ண ࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪
2.3 ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡀỈ㉁ண ィ⟬࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪ࡢ᳨ウ
2.3.1 ᑐ㇟ᆅᇦࡢᴫせ
ᮏ◊✲࡛ࡣⲨᕝỈ⣔࡟఩⨨ࡋ࡚࠶ࡿᾆᒣࢲ࣒(ᅗ )ࢆᑐ㇟࡜ࡋ࡚ࣔࢹࣝࢆᵓ⠏㸪෌⌧ィ⟬
ࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ㸬ᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࡣᇸ⋢┴ࡢ⛛∗┅ᆅ༡᪉ࡢᒣ୰࡟ᘓタࡉࢀࡓ㔜ຊᘧࢥࣥࢡ࣮ࣜࢺࢲ࣒࡛㸪
1999 ᖺ 2 ᭶࡟᏶ᕤࡋ㸪ྠᖺ 4 ᭶࠿ࡽ㐠⏝ࡀ㛤ጞࡉࢀࡓ㸬ᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࡢᶵ⬟࡜ࡋ࡚ࡣ 1) ὥỈㄪ
⠇㸪2) ᪤ᚓྲྀỈࡢᏳᐃ࣭Ἑᕝ⎔ቃࡢಖ඲㸪3) Ỉ㐨⏝Ỉࡢ౪⤥ཬࡧ 4) Ⓨ㟁࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ὥỈㄪ⠇
࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࢲ࣒ᆅⅬࡢィ⏬㧗Ỉὶ㔞(࠾ࡼࡧ 100 ᖺ࡟ 1 ᅇ㉳ࡾ࠺ࡿὥỈࡢつᶍ)1,000 m3/sࡢ࠺
ࡕ㸪890 m3/sࢆࢲ࣒࡛㈓ࡵ㸪ࢲ࣒ୗὶ࡬ࡢᨺὶ㔞ࢆ 110 m3/s࡟ῶࡽࡍࡇ࡜࡟ࡼࡾୗὶᇦࡢὥ
Ỉ⿕ᐖࡢ㍍ῶࢆ┠ⓗ࡜ࡍࡿ㸬᪤ᚓྲྀỈࡢᏳᐃ࣭Ἑᕝ⎔ቃࡢಖ඲࡜ࡋ࡚ࡢᙺ๭ࡣἙᕝࡢὶ㔞ࡀ
㇏ᐩ࡞᫬࡟ࢲ࣒࡟㈓␃ࡋ㸪㏫࡟୙㊊ࡍࡿ᫬࡟ࢲ࣒࠿ࡽᨺὶࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡟ࡼࡾⲨᕝᮏὶ(ἢᕝ)ࡢ᪤
ᚓྲྀỈ(℺₅⏝Ỉ)ࡀᏳᐃࡉࢀࡿࡼ࠺࡟㸪ࡲࡓ㸪㨶㢮࡞࡝Ἑᕝ⎔ቃࡢಖ඲➼ࡢࡓࡵࡢᚲせὶ㔞ࡢ
☜ಖ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬Ỉ㐨⏝Ỉ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣ⛛∗ᕷ࡟ 20,000 m3/᪥㸪ᇸ⋢┴࡟ࡣ 230,000 m3/᪥㸪ᮾி
㒔ࡣ 100,000 m3/᪥࡜ࡋ࡚᪥᭱኱ 350,000 m3ࡢỈ㐨⏝Ỉࢆ౪⤥ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ࢲ࣒࠿ࡽ᭱
኱ 4.1 m3/sࡢᨺὶỈࢆ฼⏝ࡋ࡚᭱኱ 5,000 kWࡢⓎ㟁ࡀ⾜ࢃࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬ᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࡣ㞟Ỉ㠃✚
51.6 km2㸪ῬỈ㠃✚ 1.2 km2ࡢᣢࡘ⥲㈓Ỉᐜ㔞 5,800 ୓m3࡛࠶ࡾ㸪ᖹᖖ᫬᭱㧗㈓Ỉ఩ࡣEL.
393.3 m㸪ὥỈ㈓␃‽ഛỈ఩ࡣEL. 372.0 m㸪᭱పỈ఩ࡣEL. 304.0 m࡛࠶ࡿ(ᅗ )㸬
ᾆᒣࢲ࣒࡟ὶධࡍࡿ୺せἙᕝࡣᾆᒣᕝ࡜኱ஂಖ㇂ᕝࡀ࠶ࡾ㸪ࢲ࣒ෆࡢ୺せỈ㉁ㄪᰝᆅⅬ࡟
ࡣὶධ㒊(ᾆᒣᕝࡸ኱ஂಖ㇂ᕝ)㸪ᇶ‽Ⅼ㸪⿵ຓᆅⅬ(ᐤᅜᅵ㸪๪ࢲ࣒)ཬࡧࢲ࣒ᨺὶᆅⅬ(2007
ᖺ࠿ࡽ)ࡀ࠶ࡿ(ᅗ )㸬୺せ᪋タ࡜ࡋ࡚ࡣྲྀỈࡍࡿ῝ࡉࢆ⮬⏤࡟㑅ࡧ㸪ࢲ࣒ୗὶ࡬ᨺὶ࡛ࡁ
ࡿ㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛࡀ࠶ࡿࡓࡵ㸪ୗὶἙᕝ࡛฼⏝ࡍࡿ┠ⓗ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚Ỉ ࡸỈ㉁(≉࡟⃮Ỉ)ࡢ㑅ᢥᨺ
ὶࡸㄪ⠇ᨺὶࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪2006 ᖺ࡟ࡣᅜᅵ஺㏻┬ࡢỈ⎔ቃᨵၿ஦ᴗ࡟ࡼࡾΎỈࣂ࢖ࣃࢫ
ࡀ᏶ᡂࡉࢀࡓ㸬ΎỈࣂ࢖ࣃࢫࡣᖹᖖ᫬࡟ୖὶ㒊ࡢΎỈࢆࢲ࣒ୗὶ࡬┤᥋ᨺὶ࡛ࡁࡿ┤ᚄ 1 m㸪
㛗ࡉ 6 kmࡢ⮬↛ὶୗᘧࡢࢺࣥࢿࣝ࡜ࡋ࡚᭱኱㏻Ỉ㔞ࡣ 0.7 m3/s࡛࠶ࡿ㸬2007 ᖺ 4 ᭶࠿ࡽ㐠
⏝ࡉࢀ࡚ྠᖺ 9 ᭶࡟ୖ㝣ࡋࡓྎ㢼 9 ྕ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒ࡢỈࡀ⃮ᗘ 50 ᗘ௨ୖࡢ⃮ࡗࡓ≧ἣ࡟࡞ࡗࡓ
ࡀ㸪ΎỈࣂ࢖ࣃࢫࢆ㐠⏝ࡋ࡚ୗὶ࡟⃮ᗘ 10 ᗘ௨ୗࡢỈࡢᨺὶࢆࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀΎỈࣂ࢖ࣃࢫࡀ࡞
࠿ࡗࡓ᫬ࡼࡾ⃮ᗘ 10 ᗘࢆ㉸࠼ࡿᨺὶ᪥ᩘࡀῶᑡࡍࡿຠᯝࡀᚓࡽࢀࡓ㸬
2.3 ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡀỈ㉁ண ィ⟬࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪ࡢ᳨ウ 21
ᅗ ᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࡢᆅᅗ࡜Ỉ㉁ㄪᰝᆅⅬ
ᅗ ᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࡢ㈓Ỉᐜ㔞㓄ศᅗ
22 ➨ 2 ❶ ຊᏛⓗࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ࡟ࡼࡿࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡀࢲ࣒㈓ỈụࡢỈ㉁ண ࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪
2.3.2 ḟඖ†἟⏕ែ⣔ࣔࢹࣝࡢᴫせ
3 ḟඖỈ⌮ὶయࣔࢹࣝ ELCOM(Estuary㸪Lake and Coastal Ocean Model)ࡣす࣮࢜ࢫࢺࣛ
ࣜ࢔ࡢ CWR(Centre for Water Research)࡛㛤Ⓨࡉࢀࡓࣔࢹࣝ࡜ࡋ࡚†἟㸪㈓Ỉụ㸪Ἑཱྀ㸪ᾏ
ὒ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ᫬࣭✵㛫ⓗ࡞ὶື㸪Ỉ ࡸሷศ⃰ᗘࡢኚ໬ࢆண ࡛ࡁࡿࣔࢹ࡛ࣝ࠶ࡿ㸬ELCOM
ࣔࢹࣝࡣ†἟⏕ែ⣔ࣔࢹࣝ CAEDYM(Computational Aquatic Ecosystem Dynamic Model)
࡜ࣜࣥࢡࡉࢀ࡚†἟࡜ࢲ࣒㈓ỈụࡢỈ㉁ࡸ⏕ែ⣔ࡢண ࡢࡓࡵࡢ 3 ḟඖゎᯒࢆ⾜࠺ࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛
ࡁࡿ㸬CAEDYM ࣔࢹࣝࡣከᵝ࡞Ỉ⌮ࣔࢹࣝ࡜ࣜࣥࢡࡉࡏࡿࡼ࠺࡟㛤Ⓨࡉࢀ㸪DYRESM(1 ḟ
ඖ)㸪DYRIM(2 ḟඖ)࡞࡝ࡢỈ⌮ࣔࢹࣝ࡜㐃ᦠࡉࢀ⏕≀Ꮫⓗ㸪ᆅ⌫໬Ꮫⓗ㐣⛬ࡢண ࢆ⾜࠺ࡇ
࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ㸬
(1) (/&20 ࣔࢹࣝࡢᴫせ[18]
ELCOM ࣔࢹࣝࡣỈ㠃ࢆ㏻ࡌࡓ⇕஺᥮ࡣඛ⾜◊✲ᩥ⊩[19][20][21]࡛ᥦ♧ࡍࡿᶆ‽᪉ἲࢆ
᥇⏝ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬኱Ẽ࡜Ỉ㠃ࡢ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮ఏ㐩ࡣ㸪㏱㐣ࡉࢀ࡞࠸㛗Ἴᨺᑕ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮㸪㢧⇕㍺
㏦, ₯⇕㍺㏦, ࡑࡋ࡚㏱㐣ᛶ▷Ἴᨺᑕ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮࡟ศࡅ࡚ィ⟬ࡉࢀࡿ㸬㠀㏱㐣ᛶᨺᑕ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ
࣮ࡣỈ㠃ΰྜᒙ࡛ࡢ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮࡜ࡋ࡚౑⏝ࡉࢀ࡚㸪㏱㐣ᛶ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮ࡣ Beer’s ἲ๎࡟ࡼࡗ࡚
Ỉ῝࡟ᚑࡗ࡚ᣦᩘ㛵ᩘⓗ࡟ῶ⾶ࡋ࡚Ỉయ࡟࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮࡛ᥦ౪ࡍࡿ(ᅗ )㸬
ELCOM ࡣࣔࢹࣝࡢィ⟬᫬㛫ࡢࢫࢸࢵࣉẖ࡟௨ୗࡢ᪉ἲࢆ⏝࠸࡚ィ⟬ࢆ⾜࠺㸬
1) Ỉ㠃ࡢ⇕཰ᨭࡢィ⟬
2) ΰྜᒙࣔࢹࣝᡭἲࢆ⏝࠸࡚ࢫ࣮࢝ࣛ(Ỉ 㸪ሷศ࡞࡝)್࡜㐠ື㔞ࡢ㖄┤ΰྜࡢィ⟬
3) ΰྜᒙ࡛㢼࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮ࡢィ⟬
4) ⮬⏤Ỉ㠃ኚ໬࡜㏿ᗘሙࡢィ⟬
5) ࢫ್࣮࢝ࣛࡢỈᖹ⛣ὶࡢィ⟬
ELCOM ࣔࢹࣝࡢᇶᮏⓗ࡞ᩘ್ゎᯒᡭἲࡣ Casulli and Cheng[22]ࡀ㛤Ⓨࡋࡓ TRIM(Tidal,
Residual, Inter-tidal Mudflat)ࣔࢹࣝࡢ᪉ἲࢆ᥇⏝ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿࡀ㸪ᩘ್ゎᯒࡢṇ☜ᗘࡢ⿵᏶㸪
ࢫ࣮࢝ࣛࡢ㉁㔞ಖᏑ㸪ᩘ್ᣑᩓࡢ㝖ཤ㸪ࡑࡋ࡚㖄┤஘ὶΰྜࣔࢹࣝࡀ㏣ຍࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬ᩘ್
ゎᯒࡢࡓࡵࡢࢢࣜࢵࢻࡣ┤஺ᗙᶆࢆ᥇⏝ࡋࡓ Arakawa C-grid ࢆ౑⏝ࡋ࡚㏿ᗘሙࡣࢭࣝࡢ⾲
㠃㸪⮬⏤Ỉ㠃ࡢ㧗ࡉ࡜ࢫ࣮࢝ࣛ⃰ᗘ್ࡣࢭࣝࡢ୰ኸ࡛ᐃ⩏ࡉࢀࡿ(ᅗ )㸬ྛỈᰕ࡛ࡢࢢࣜࢵ
ࢻࡢ⮬⏤Ỉ㠃㧗ࡉࡣ⮬⏤Ỉ㠃᪉⛬ᘧ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ィ⟬ࡉࢀࡓ⤖ᯝ࡟ᚑ࠸⛣ືࡍࡿ㸬
(2) (/&20 ࣔࢹࣝࡢᨭ㓄᪉⛬ᘧ
ELCOM ࡢᨭ㓄᪉⛬ᘧ࡟ࡣ㐠ື㔞᪉⛬ᘧ㸪㐃⥆᪉⛬ᘧ㸪⮬⏤Ỉ㠃᪉⛬ᘧ㸪≀㉁⛣ὶᣑ
ᩓ᪉⛬ᘧࡀྵࡲࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬㐠ື㔞᪉⛬ᘧࡣ Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes(RANS)᪉⛬
ᘧࢆ౑⏝ࡋ࡚㸪ᇶᮏⓗ࡟ὶయࡢ≉ᛶ࡟㛵ࡋ࡚ࡣ Boussunesq ௬ᐃ㸪㖄┤᪉ྥࡣ㟼Ỉᅽࢆ௬
ᐃࡍࡿ㸬ࡋ࠿ࡋ࡞ࡀࡽ㸪Ỉ㠃ഴᩳ࡟ᚑ࠺ືỈᅽస⏝ࡸෆ㒊Ἴࡢᙳ㡪࡞࡝ࡢ㠀㟼Ỉᅽࡀ㔜せ
࡞ሙྜ࡟ࡣ non-hydrostatic code ࢜ࣉࢩࣙࣥࢆ౑⏝ࡋ࡚㖄┤᪉ྥࡢ㐠ື㔞᪉⛬ᘧࢆ౑⏝ࡍ
2.3 ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡀỈ㉁ண ィ⟬࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪ࡢ᳨ウ 23
ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ㸬ELCOM ࡛Ỉᖹ᪉ྥὶ㏿ࡢ▐㛫ኚືᡂศ࡟ࡼࡿ஘ὶࢡ࣮ࣟࢪࣕࡣỈᖹ㐣
⢓ᛶಀᩘࢆ౑⏝ࡋ࡚㖄┤᪉ྥ࡟㛵ࡋ࡚ࡣᣑᩓࣔࢹࣝࡢ㖄┤㐣⢓ᛶಀᩘ㸪ࡲࡓΰྜᒙࣔࢹࣝ
ࢆ౑⏝ࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ㸬௨ୗ࡟⏝࠸ࡽࢀ࡚࠸ࡿᨭ㓄᪉⛬ᘧࢆ♧ࡍ㸬
ᅗ (/&20 ࣔࢹ࡛ࣝ⪃៖ࡍࡿ≀⌮ⓗࣉࣟࢭࢫࡢᴫせᅗ
ᅗ (/&20 ࣔࢹࣝࡢィ⟬ᗙᶆ㸪࣓ࢵࢩࣗ㸪ኚᩘࡢᐃ⩏
24 ➨ 2 ❶ ຊᏛⓗࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ࡟ࡼࡿࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡀࢲ࣒㈓ỈụࡢỈ㉁ண ࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪
[ 㐠ື㔞᪉⛬ᘧ ]
x-᪉ྥ᪉⛬ᘧ
డ௨
డ௧
డ௨
൅‫ݑ‬
డ௫
൅
൅‫ݒ‬
డ
డ௫
డ௨
డ௬
ቄ‫ݒ‬௫
డ௨
൅‫ݓ‬
డ௨
డ௫
ൌ െ݃ ቄ
డ௭
ቅ൅
డ
డ௬
డ௨
ቄ‫ݒ‬௬
డ௬
డఎ
డ௫
ఘబ
డ
ቅ൅
ఎ
ଵ డ
൅
డ௭
‫ ߩ ׬‬ᇱ ݀‫ݖ‬ቅ
డ௫ ௭
ቄ‫ݒ‬௭
డ௨
డ௭
ቅ ൅ ݂‫ݒ‬
࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭(2.10)
y-᪉ྥ᪉⛬ᘧ
డ௩
൅‫ݑ‬
డ௧
డ௩
൅‫ݒ‬
డ௫
൅
డ
డ௫
డ௩
డ௬
ቄ‫ݒ‬௫
൅‫ݓ‬
డ௩
డ௫
డ௩
ൌ െ݃ ቄ
డ௭
ቅ൅
డ
డ௬
ቄ‫ݒ‬௬
డ௩
డ௬
డఎ
డ௬
ቅ൅
൅
ఎ
ଵ డ
ఘబ
డ
డ௭
‫ ߩ ׬‬ᇱ ݀‫ݖ‬ቅ
డ௬ ௭
ቄ‫ݒ‬௭
డ௩
డ௭
ቅ െ ݂‫(࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭ݑ‬2.11)
[ 㐃⥆᪉⛬ᘧ ]
డ௨
൅
డ௫
డ௩
డ௬
൅
డ௪
డ௭
ൌ Ͳ࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭(2.12)
[ ᅽຊ᪉⛬ᘧ ]
డ௣
డ௭
ൌ െߩ࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭݃(2.13)
[ ⮬⏤Ỉ㠃᪉⛬ᘧ ]
డఎ
డ௧
൅
డ
ఎ
డ௫
ቂ‫׬‬௛ ‫ݖ݀ݑ‬ቃ ൅
బ
డ
ఎ
ቂ‫ݖ݀ݒ ׬‬ቃ ൌ Ͳ࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭(2.14)
డ௬ ௛
బ
[ ≀㉁⛣ὶᣑᩓ᪉⛬ᘧ ]
డ௖
డ௧
൅‫ݑ‬
డ௖
డ௫
൅‫ݒ‬
డ௖
డ௬
൅‫ݓ‬
డ௖
డ௭
ൌ
డ
డ௫
൅
ቄ݇௫
డ
డ௭
డ௖
డ௫
ቄ݇௭
ቅ൅
డ௖
డ௭
డ
డ௬
ቄ݇௬
డ௖
డ௬
ቅ
ቅ ൅ ܵ௖࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭(2.15)
ࡇࡇ࡛㸪‫ݑ‬ǡ ‫ݒ‬ǡ ‫ݓ‬㸸x, y, z ᪉ྥࡢὶ㏿, ݂㸸ࢥࣜ࢜ࣜಀᩘ, Ʉ㸸Ỉ㠃ኚື㔞, ݄㸸ᇶ‽㠃࠿ࡽࡢỈ
῝, ߩ଴ 㸸ᇶ‽ᐦᗘ, ߩᇱ 㸸ᇶ‽ᐦᗘ࠿ࡽࡢ೫ᕪ, ‫ݒ‬௫ ǡ ‫ݒ‬௬ ǡ ‫ݒ‬௭ 㸸㐠ື㔞࡟ᑐࡍࡿ x, y, z ᪉ྥࡢ㐣ື
⢓ᛶಀᩘ, ݇௫ ǡ ݇௬ ǡ ݇௭ 㸸ࢫ࣮࢝ࣛ㔞࡟ᑐࡍࡿ x, y, z ᪉ྥࡢ㐣ື⢓ᛶಀᩘ, ܵ௖ 㸸ࢯ࣮ࢫ࣭ࢩࣥࢢ
㡯࡛࠶ࡿ㸬
ᩘ್ゎᯒࡢࡓࡵࡢᨭ㓄᪉⛬ᘧࡣ᭷㝈ᕪศ┤஺ᗙᶆ࡛ᕪศ໬ࡍࡿ㸬ὶ㏿ᡂศࡣྛィ⟬ࢭࣝ
ࡢ㠃࡛ࢫ࣮࢝ࣛᡂศࡣࢭࣝࡢ୰ኸ࡛ィ⟬ࡉࢀࡿ㸬㐠ື㔞᪉⛬ᘧࡣ TRIM ࣔࢹ࡛ࣝ౑⏝ࡋࡓ
‽ 㝜 ゎ ἲ ࢆ ౑ ⏝ ࡋ ࡚ 2 ḟ ᪉ ⛬ ᘧ Euler-Lagrange ⿵ 㛫 ἲ ࢆ 㐺 ⏝ ࡋ ࡚ ゎ ࢆ ồ ࡵ ࡿ 㸬
2.3 ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡀỈ㉁ண ィ⟬࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪ࡢ᳨ウ 25
Euler-Lagrange ⿵㛫ἲࡢࡓࡵࡢ 2 ḟ᪉⛬ᘧࡢ㐺⏝ࡣෆ㒊ἼࡢேⅭⓗ࡞⦆࿴ࢆῶࡽࡍࡇ࡜
࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ᡂᒙ໬ࡋࡓࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡛ࡢἼࡢ㐠ືࢆࡼࡾ෌⌧ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ㸬⮬⏤Ỉ㠃᪉⛬
ᘧࡣ‽㝜ゎἲࢆ⏝࠸࡚ᕪศ໬ࡋ࡚ TRIM ࣔࢹ࡛ࣝ౑⏝ࡋࡓඹᙺ໙㓄ἲ࡛ゎࢆồࡵࡿ[22]㸬
⛣ὶᣑᩓ᪉⛬ᘧ࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈᖹ᪉ྥࡢ⛣ὶ㡯ࡣ㸪ULTIMATE[23]ἲ࡜࡜ࡶ࡟ 3 ḟ⢭ᗘࢆᣢ
ࡘ QUICKEST ἲ[24]ࢆ౑⏝ࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡛⃰ᗘኚ໬ࡀᛴ⃭࡞㡿ᇦ࡛ゎࢆᏳᐃⓗ࡟ồࡵࡿࡇ࡜
ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ㸬Ỉᖹᣑᩓ㡯ࡣ 2 ḟ⛬ᗘࡢ㝧ゎἲࢆ⏝࠸࡚ᕪศ໬ࡋ࡚㖄┤᪉ྥࡢ஘ὶ⛣ὶࡣࡑࢀ
ࡒࢀࡢỈᰕ࡟ᑐࡍࡿ 1 ḟඖΰྜᒙࣔࢹࣝࢆ㐺⏝ࡋࡓゎᯒࢆ⾜࠺㸬ࡑࢀ௨እࡢỈ఩࡟ࡼࡿᅽ
ຊ࡜ᐦᗘᕪ࡟ࡼࡿᅽຊ㡯㸪ᆅ⌫⮬㌿࡟ࡼࡿࢥࣜ࢜ࣜຊ㡯㸪㢼࡟ࡼࡿᛂຊ㸪኱Ẽ㸫Ỉ㠃㛫ࡢ
ᗘᕪ࡟ࡼࡿᑐὶ㡯㸪ࡑࡋ࡚ὶධỈ࡜ὶฟỈࡢᙳ㡪࡞࡝࡟ᑐࡋࡓィ⟬ࡀྵࡲࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬
(3) &$('<0 ࣔࢹࣝࡢᴫせ[25]
CAEDYM ࣔࢹࣝࡣከᵝ࡞Ỉ⌮ࣔࢹࣝ࡜ᐜ᫆࡟ࣜࣥࢡࡉࢀࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿࡼ࠺࡟タィࡉ
ࢀࡓ†἟⏕ែ⣔ࣔࢹ࡛ࣝ࠶ࡿ㸬౛࠼ࡤ㸪DYRESM ࡣ†἟࡜ࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡛㖄┤ᐦᗘᡂᒙࢆ
ண ࡍࡿࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ Lagrangian ᵓ㐀ࡢ 1 ḟඖࣔࢹࣝ㸪ELCOM ࡣ†἟㸪ࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ㸪Ἑཱྀ
ཬࡧᾏὒ࡟㐺⏝ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ 3 ḟඖỈ⌮ࣔࢹࣝ࡜ࡋ࡚ CAEDYM ࡜ࣜࣥࢡࡉࡏࡿࡇ࡜
ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ㸬CAEDYM ࣔࢹࣝ࡜Ỉ⌮ࣔࢹࣝࡢ㐃ືゎᯒࡣ≉࡟ỈయࡢỈ ᵓ㐀ࡸᐦᗘࡀỈࡢ
⃮ᗘࡸỈ㉁⃰ᗘ(౛࠼ࡤ㸪ᾋ㐟≀㉁ࡸሷศᗘ)࡟౫Ꮡࡍࡿሙྜ࡟Ỉ⌮㸫Ỉ㉁㛫ࡢ┦஫స⏝ࢆ
཯ᫎࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ㸬
CAEDYM ࣔࢹࣝࡢ୺࡞┠ᶆࡢ 1 ࡘࡣ㸪≉ᐃ࡞ࢩࢫࢸ࣒࡟㐺⏝ࡍࡿ᫬࡟ከᵝ࡞≀㉁せ⣲
ࡢᚠ⎔࡜᭱ప 1 ࡘࡢ⸴㢮ࢢ࣮ࣝࣉࢆྵࡴ⏕ែ⣔ࡢᵓᡂࢆࡓࡸࡍࡃࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡛࠶ࡗࡓ㸬ࡋࡓ
ࡀࡗ࡚㸪ࡇࡢࣔࢹࣝࡣ C㸪N㸪P㸪Si ࡢከᵝ࡞ᚠ⎔㐣⛬㸪⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲(DO)ᚠ⎔㸪」ᩘࢢ࣮ࣝ
ࣉࡢ↓ᶵᾋ㐟≀㉁(Suspended Solids)㸪ࡑࡋ࡚᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥࡢኚ໬ࡀྵࡲࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬
ࡲࡓ㸪CAEDYM ࣔࢹࣝࡣ⸴㢮ࡢ᪥࿘ᮇගྜᡂ࡜ኪ㛫࿧྾࡞࡝ࡢ㐣⛬ࢆゎᯒࡍࡿࡓࡵỈ㉁
ࣔࢹࣝࡢィ⟬᫬㛫㛫㝸ࡢᩚᩘಸࡢࢱ࢖࣒ࢫࢸࢵࣉࢆ౑⏝ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿࡀ㸪୍⯡ⓗ࡟Ỉ
⌮ࣔࢹࣝ࡜ྠࡌィ⟬㛫㝸࡛ࣔࢹࣝࡢィ⟬ࡀ⾜ࢃࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬CAEDYM ࡛ィ⟬࡛ࡁࡿ୺せ࡞
⏕≀ᆅ⌫໬Ꮫⓗ࡞≧ែኚᩘ࡞࡝ࡣᅗ ࡢ࡜࠾ࡾ࡟࡞ࡿ㸬ィ⟬࡟ྵࡲࢀࡿኚᩘࡣィ⟬ᵓᡂ
᮲௳ࡢ᝟ሗࢆᥦ౪ࡍࡿධຊࣇ࢓࢖࡛ࣝᐃ⩏ࡍࡿ㸬ィ⟬࡟ᚲせ࡞ࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱࡣู㏵ࡢࣇ࢓࢖
࡛ࣝᐃ⩏ࡋ࡚㸪ᚲせ᫬࡟ࡑࢀࡽࢆኚ࠼࡚࢟ࣕࣜࣈ࣮ࣞࢩ࡛ࣙࣥࡁࡿ㸬
CAEDYM ࣔࢹࣝ࠿ࡽィ⟬࡛ࡁࡿ㡯┠࡜ࡋ࡚ࡣ↓ᶵᾋ㐟≀㉁(SS;᭱኱ 6 ࢢ࣮ࣝࣉ)㸪᳜≀
ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥ(᭱኱ 7 ࢢ࣮ࣝࣉ)㸪ື≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥ(᭱኱ 5 ࢢ࣮ࣝࣉ)㸪㨶㢮(᭱኱ 3 ࢢ࣮ࣝ
ࣉ)㸪ࣂࢡࢸࣜ࢔࡞࡝ࢆྵࡵ࡚ C, N, P, DO, ࡑࡋ࡚ Si ࡢᚠ⎔ࡢィ⟬ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ(ᅗ )㸬Ỉ⌮
ࣔࢹࣝ࠿ࡽỈ㠃ࡢ⇕ຊᏛཬࡧ஺᥮ࡢィ⟬࡛⏝࠸ࡽࢀࡓ▷Ἴᨺᑕ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮ࡀ CAEDYM ࡟
ᥦ౪ࡉࢀࡿ㸬▷Ἴᨺᑕ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮(280~2800nm)ࡣ᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥࡢ 1 ḟ⏕⏘࡟౑⏝࡛
ࡁࡿගྜᡂ࡟᭷⏝࡞࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮PAR(Photosynthetically Active Radiation, 400~700nm)
࡟ศ࠿ࢀࡿ㸬ࡇࢀࡣὶධ▷Ἴ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮ࡢ 45%⛬ᗘ࡜௬ᐃࡍࡿ㸬PAR ࡣ Beer㸫Lambert
Law ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚Ỉయෆ࡟ῶ⾶ࡋ࡚㏱㐣ࡍࡿ௬ᐃ࡛࠶ࡾ㸪ගࡢῶ⾶ಀᩘࡣ⸴㢮ࡢ⃰ᗘ㸪↓ᶵཬ
26 ➨ 2 ❶ ຊᏛⓗࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ࡟ࡼࡿࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡀࢲ࣒㈓ỈụࡢỈ㉁ண ࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪
ᅗ &$('<0 ࣔࢹ࡛ࣝ⪃៖ࡍࡿỈయ࡜ሁ✚ᒙࡢ≧ែኚᩘࡢᴫせᅗ
ࡧ⢏Ꮚែ≀㉁㸪ࡑࡋ࡚⁐Ꮡ᭷ᶵⅣ⣲⃰ᗘࡢࣞ࣋ࣝ࡟ᚑࡗ࡚ືⓗ࡟ィ⟬ࡉࢀࡿ㸬CAEDYM
version3.2 ࡛ࡣ⢏Ꮚ኱ࡁࡉࡢ≉ᛶ࡟కࡗ࡚᭱኱ 6 ࢢ࣮ࣝࣉࡲ࡛↓ᶵᾋ㐟⢏Ꮚ(SS)ࢆィ⟬࡛
ࡁ㸪ྛ⢏Ꮚࢢ࣮ࣝࣉࡣ┤ᚄ㸪ᐦᗘ㸪ࡑࡋ࡚ỿ㝆ࡸ෌ᾋୖ࡜㛵㐃ࡉࢀࡓࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱࢆᣦᐃ࡛
ࡁࡿ㸬Ỉ୰ࡢ⁐Ꮡࣜࣥ࡜࢔ࣥࣔࢽ࣒࢘࢖࢜ࣥࡀ↓ᶵ⢏Ꮚࡢ⾲㠃࡟྾╔ࡉࢀࡓᙧែ(PIN㸪
PIP)࡜⬺╔ࡉࢀࡿ㐣⛬ࡢィ⟬ࡶ࡛ࡁ㸪ỿ㝆㏿ᗘࡣ Stokes ᘧ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ィ⟬ࡉࢀࡿ㸬
CAEDYM ࣔࢹࣝࡣ C, N, P, Si ࡣ඲࡚ࡢィ⟬㡯┠ࡢ≀㉁཰ᨭࢆỈయ࡜༢୍ሁ✚ᒙ࡟⥔ᣢ
ࡍࡿ㸬CAEDYM ࣔࢹࣝࡢ୺せ㛤Ⓨ┠ⓗࡣሁ✚ᒙࡢ㉁㔞ಖᏑࢆ⥔ᣢࡍࡿࡓࡵ࡟༑ศ࡞」㞧
ᗘࢆ⥔ᣢࡋ࡞ࡀࡽ㸪Ỉయ࡛ࡢ୺せ≀㉁ࡢ࢚ࢿࣝࢠ࣮※࡜ࣇࣛࢵࢡࢫࢆࡼࡾ᏶඲࡟ィ⟬ࡍࡿ
ࡇ࡜࡛࠶ࡿ㸬↓ᶵࡸ᭷ᶵᰤ㣴ሷ㢮ࡢሁ✚ᒙࡢࣇࣛࢵࢡࢫࡣ⎔ቃせ⣲(౛࠼ࡤ㸪Ỉ , pH, DO)
ࢆྵࡴ⤒㦂ᘧ࡟ᇶ♏ࡋ࡚࠾ࡾ㸪ධຊࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱࢆ☜ಖࡍࡿࡓࡵ࡟ᐇ㦂ᐊศᯒ࡜⌧ሙᐇ㦂ࡀ
ᚲせ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ᮏ◊✲࡛ࡣ Chl.a 㛵ಀ௨እࡢࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱࡣ࣐ࢽࣗ࢔ࣝࡢࢹࣇ࢛ࣝࢺࢆ⏝࠸㸪
Chl.a ࡢࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣᩥ⊩[26][27]ࢆཧ⪃ࡋヨ⾜㘒ㄗἲ(trial and error method)
࡟ࡼࡾࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱࢆྠᐃࡋࡓ㸬ሁ✚ᒙ࡜Ỉయࡢቃ⏺㠃࡛ SS ࡜ POM(Particle Organic
Matter, ⢏Ꮚែ᭷ᶵ≀㉁)ࡢ෌ᾋୖࢆィ⟬ࡍࡿࡓࡵ࡟㝈⏺ࡏࢇ᩿ᛂຊ࡜෌ᾋୖ⋡ྵࡴ」ᩘ
ࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱࡀᚲせ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ሁ✚ᒙࡢᡂศࡣ CAEDYM ࡢึᮇ᮲௳ࣇ࢓࢖ࣝ࠿ࡽᐃ⩏ࡉࢀ࡚㸪
⢏Ꮚែ᭷ᶵ≀㉁(POC, PON, POP)㸪ࡑࡋ࡚ࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢ↓ᶵᾋ㐟⢏Ꮚࢢ࣮ࣝࣉࡀໟྵࡉࢀࡿ㸬
ሁ✚ᒙࡢ᭷ᶵ≀ᡂศẚ࡜ࡋ࡚౑⏝ࡉࢀࡓึᮇ C:N:P ẚࡣィ⟬ᮇ㛫ࡢ඲య࡟෌ᾋୖࡉࢀࡓ⢏
Ꮚࡢᡂศࢆィ⟬ࡍࡿࡓࡵ࡟౑⏝ࡍࡿ㸬CAEDYM ࣔࢹࣝࡢ⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲ࡢィ⟬ࡣ኱Ẽ࡜ࡢ஺᥮㸪
ሁ✚ᒙࡢ㓟⣲せồ㔞(Sediment Oxygen Demand, SOD)㸪࿧Ẽᛶᚤ⏕≀࡟ࡼࡿ᭷ᶵ≀ࡢศ
ゎ࡜◪㓟໬㸪ගྜᡂ࡟ࡼࡿ⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲⏕⏘࡜࿧྾࡟ࡼࡿᾘ㈝࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ィ⟬ࡉࢀࡿ㸬኱Ẽ஺᥮
ࡣ Wanninkhof[28]ࣔࢹࣝ࡜ Riley and Skirrow[29]ࡢࣇࣛࢵࢡࢫ᪉⛬ᘧ࡟ᇶ♏ࡋ࡚࠾ࡾ㸪
⌧ᅾ CAEDYM ࣔࢹࣝࡣ⡆༢࡞㟼ⓗ 0 ḟ SOD ࣔࢹࣝࢆ౑⏝ࡋ࡚㸪ỈయࡢỈ ࡜ DO ⃰ᗘ
2.3 ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡀỈ㉁ண ィ⟬࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪ࡢ᳨ウ 27
࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ኚࢃࡿ㸬
CAEDYM ࣔࢹࣝࡣ᭱኱ 7 ࢢ࣮ࣝࣉࡢ᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥࡢィ⟬ࡀ࡛ࡁ㸪⸴㢮ࡢ⏕య㔞ࡣ
Chl.aǍJ Chl.a/L)㸪ࡲࡓ㸪Ⅳ⣲(mgC/L)࡛ィ⟬ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ㸬ࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢ᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥ
ࢡࢺࣥࢢ࣮ࣝࣉࡢᡂ㛗㏿ᗘࡣ 20Υ࡟᭱኱ྍ⬟ᡂ㛗⋡ࡢỈ 㛵ᩘࡸග㸪❅⣲㸪ࣜࣥཬࡧ⌛⣲
(⌛⸴㢮ࡢሙྜ)࡟ࡼࡿไ㝈せᅉ୰࡟᭱ᑠ್ࢆ᥃ࡅ࡚Ỵᐃࡉࢀࡿ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥ
ࡢ⏕య㔞ࡣື≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥ㸪㨶㢮ཬࡧ㈅㢮ࡢᦤྲྀ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ῶᑡࡍࡿ㸬ࡇࡇ࡛㸪Ỉ㉁ண ࡟㔜せ࡞⸴㢮ࡢᡂ㛗⋡ࡢィ⟬ᘧࢆ♧ࡍ㸬
ߤ௚௔ ൌ ߤ௠௔௫௔ ‹ሾ݂ሺ‫ ܫ‬ሻ௔ ǡ ݂ ሺܰሻ௔ ǡ ݂ሺܲሻ௔ ǡ ݂ ሺܵ݅ሻ௔ ǡ ݂ ሺ‫ ܥ‬ሻ௔ ሿ݂௔்ଵሺܶሻ࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭(2.16)
ࡇࡇ࡛ܽࡣ⸴㢮ࡢ✀㢮㸪Ɋ ‰ ࡣᡂ㛗⋡(Ȁ†ƒ›), ˆሺሻ, ˆሺሻ, ˆሺሻ ࡣග㸪❅⣲㸪ࣜࣥࡢࡼࡿไ㝈ᅉᏊ㸪
ˆሺ‹ሻ ࡣ⌛⸴㢮ࢆィ⟬ࡍࡿሙྜ㸪ˆሺሻ ࡣⅣ⣲㈓ⶶᶵ⬟ࢆ᥇⏝ࡍࡿሙྜ㸪݂௔்ଵ ࡣỈ 㛵ᩘ࡛࠶
ࡿ(ᘧ 2.17㹼ᘧ 2.20)㸬ࡉࡽ࡟㸪 ࡛᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥࡢᡂ㛗ࡀ᭱኱࡟࡞ࡾ㸪 ࡟࡞ࡿ
࡜᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥࡢᡂ㛗ࡀῶᑡࡋ㸪 ࡣᘧ 2.17 ࡟ࡼࡾィ⟬ࡉࢀࡿ㸬
݂௔்ଵሺܶሻ ൌ ߴ௔்ିଶ଴࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭(2.17)
ܶ ൌ ܶௌ்஽ ‫݂ ׷‬ሺܶሻ ൌ ͳ࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭(2.18)
ܶ ൌ ܶை௉் ‫ ׷‬
డ௙ሺ்ሻ
డ௧
ൌ Ͳ࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭(2.19)
ܶ ൌ ܶெ஺௑ ‫݂ ׷‬ሺܶሻ ൌ Ͳ࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭(2.20)
⸴㢮ࢢ࣮ࣝࣉ࡛ࡣ C㸪N㸪P ࡢኚືࢆィ⟬ࡍࡿ 2 ࡘ᪉ἲࡀ࠶ࡿ㸬1 ࡘࡣ୍ᐃࡢ C㸪N㸪P㸸
Chl.a ࡢẚࢆ౑⏝ࡍࡿ᪉ἲ࡛㸪ࡶ࠺ 1 ࡘࡣືⓗ࡟⣽⬊ෆࡢ㈓ⶶࢆ⪃៖ࡍࡿ᪉ἲ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬1
ࡘ┠ࡢ᪉ἲࡣ⡆༢࡞ Michaelis-Menten[30]ᘧࡀ㸪⸴㢮ᡂ㛗࡟ᙳ㡪ࢆ୚࠼ࡿᰤ㣴ሷࡢไ㝈⛬
ᗘࢆ⟬ᐃࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡟౑⏝ࡉࢀࡿ㸬Ṛ⁛࡜ศἪ࡟ࡼࡿᰤ㣴ሷࡢᦆኻࡣᅛᐃࡉࢀࡓෆ㒊ᰤ㣴ሷ
㢮(IN㸪IP)࡜ Chl.a ẚ࡜⸴㢮ῶᑡ㔞ࡢ᥃ࡅ⟬࡛ィ⟬ࡉࢀ㸪ࡲࡓ㸪⢏Ꮚែ᭷ᶵ≀(POM)࡟㌿
᥮ࡉࢀࡿ㸬୍᪉㸪2 ࡘ┠ࡢ᪉ἲࡣືⓗ࡟⣽⬊ෆ࡟㈓ⶶࡋࡓᰤ㣴ሷࢆ౑⏝ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁ㸪
Droop[31]ࣔࢹࣝࢆ⏝࠸ࡓᡂ㛗㏿ᗘࡢ⟬ᐃࢆ⾜࠺㸬ࡇࡢ᪉ἲࡣ᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥࡢ✀ẖ࡟ᣦ
ᐃࡉࢀࡓ᭱ᑠ࡜᭱኱್ࡢ⠊ᅖෆ࡛ືⓗ࡟ᰤ㣴ሷࢆᦤྲྀࡋ㸪ྍኚⓗ࡞ෆ㒊ᰤ㣴ሷ㢮⃰ᗘࢆᣢ
ࡘࡇ࡜ࢆチᐜࡍࡿ㸬Ṛ⁛࡜ศἪ࡟ࡼࡿᰤ㣴ሷࡢᦆኻࡣ 1 ࡘ┠ࡢ᪉ἲ࡛ィ⟬ࡉࢀࡿࡀ㸪ෆ㒊
ᰤ㣴ሷ㢮⃰ᗘࡣືⓗ࡟ィ⟬ࡉࢀࡓ್ࡀ౑⏝ࡉࢀࡿ㸬
CAEDYM ࡟ࡣ᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥࡢ⛣ື࡜ỿ㝆ࡢࡓࡵࡢ 4 ✀ࡢࣔࢹࣝࡀྵࡲࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬
୍ᐃỿ㝆㏿ᗘ㸪ィ⟬ࡉࢀࡓ⣽⬊ࡢᐦᗘ࡟కࡗ࡚ィ⟬ࡉࢀࡿ Stokes ỿ㝆㸪ගࡢᙳ㡪ࢆཷࡅ࡞
࠸㖄┤⛣ື㸪ࡑࡋ࡚ගࡢᙳ㡪ࢆཷࡅࡿ㖄┤⛣ືࡀ࠶ࡿ㸬ᗏ࡟ỿ㝆ࡋࡓ᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥࡢ
෌ᾋୖࡀチᐜࡉࢀࡿሙྜ㸪ࣔࢹࣝࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱ࡛ᣦᐃࡉࢀࡓᮇ㛫(㏻ᖖ 24 ᫬㛫)࡟ᣢ⥆ⓗ࡟Ꮡ
ᅾࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ௬ᐃࡉࢀࡿ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥࡀỈయ࡟ᡠࡽ࡞࠸ሙྜ㸪⸴㢮ࡣヱᙜࡍ
ࡿሁ✚ᒙ࡟ᰤ㣴ሷ࡟ศゎࡉࢀࡿ㸬
28 ➨ 2 ❶ ຊᏛⓗࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ࡟ࡼࡿࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡀࢲ࣒㈓ỈụࡢỈ㉁ண ࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪
2.3.3 ෌⌧ィ⟬ࣔࢹࣝࡢᵓ⠏
(1) ᆅᙧࢹ࣮ࢱࡢᵓ⠏
ELCOM-CAEDYMࣔࢹࣝ࡟ࡼࡿィ⟬ࡢࡓࡵ࡟ᚲせ࡞ࢹ࣮ࢱࡣᆅᙧࢹ࣮ࢱ㸪ὶධ㔞࣭ᨺ
ὶ㔞㸪Ẽ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱ㸪ὶධỈ 㸪ὶධỈ㉁⃰ᗘཬࡧ㑅ᢥྲྀỈ᪋タࡸࣂ࢖ࣃࢫࡢ㐠⏝グ㘓࡞࡝
࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ࣔࢹࣝࡢ᭱ึẁ㝵࡜ࡋ࡚ィ⟬࡛⏝࠸ࡿ࣓ࢵࢩࣗࡣỈᖹ᪉ྥ(x㸪y) 50 m™50 m㸪㖄
┤᪉ྥ(z) 1 m࡛༊ศࡋ࡚⥲ 24,158 ಶࡢࢭ࡛ࣝᵓ⠏ࡋࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ᵓ⠏ࡋࡓ࣓ࢵࢩࣗࡢṇ☜
ᗘࢆ☜ㄆࡍࡿࡓࡵ㸪ᐇ㝿ࡢỈ఩࡟క࠺㈓Ỉᐜ㔞࡜ẚ㍑ࡋࡓ㸬ࡑࡢ⤖ᯝ㸪AME(Absolute Mean
Error, ᖹᆒ⤯ᑐㄗᕪ)ࡣ 0.05™10 6 m 3㸪RMSE(Root Mean Square Error, ᖹᆒ஧஌ㄗᕪ)
ࡣ™10 6 m3 㸪ࡲࡓ㸪R 2(Coefficient of determination, Ỵᐃಀᩘ)ࡣ 0.999 ࡜࡞ࡾ㸪⥲㈓Ỉ㔞
(58™10 6 m3 )࡟ẚ࡭࡚ 2.5%(56.6™10 6 m3 )ࡢᑠࡉ࠸ㄗᕪ࡛࠶ࡿࡓࡵ㸪ᵓ⠏ࡋࡓᆅᙧ㈨ᩱࡣ
ࣔࢹࣝࡢ㐺⏝࡟㐺ᙜ࡞ㄗᕪ⠊ᅖ࡛࠶ࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ(ᅗ )㸬
ᅗ ᐇ ࡜ࣔࢹࣝࡢỈ఩㸫㈓Ỉᐜ㔞ࡢ┦㛵ᅗ
(2) ධຊࢹ࣮ࢱࡢᵓ⠏
ࣔࢹࣝࡢ෌⌧ィ⟬ࡢࡓࡵࡢᮇ㛫ࡣᖺ⥲㝆Ỉ㔞࡜ࡋ࡚ᖹỈᖺ࡛࠶ࡿ 2000 ᖺࢆᑐ㇟࡜ࡋ㸪
ࣔࢹࣝ࡟ධຊࡉࢀࡿὶධ㔞࣭ᨺὶ㔞㸪ὶධỈ ࡣᾆᒣࢲ࣒⟶⌮஦ົᡤ࠿ࡽほ ࡉࢀࡓ 1 ᫬
㛫ࡈ࡜ࡢᐇ ್ࢆ⏝࠸ࡓ(ᅗ )㸬ὶධἙᕝࡣᾆᒣᕝ࡜኱ஂಖ㇂ᕝࡢ 2 ࡘࡢἙᕝ࡛タᐃࡋ㸪
ࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢὶධ㔞ࡣ 2 ࡘἙᕝࡢὶᇦ㠃✚ẚࢆ⏝࠸࡚ᾆᒣᕝࡣ 79.6%㸪኱ஂಖ㇂ᕝࡣ 20.4%
ࡀὶධࡍࡿࡼ࠺࡟タᐃࡋࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ὶධỈ ࡣᾆᒣᕝࡢὶධ㒊࡛ ᐃࡉࢀ(1 ᫬㛫ࡈ࡜)㸪኱
ஂಖ㇂ᕝ࡟ࡣ ᐃࡉࢀ࡚࠸࡞࠸ࡓࡵ㸪኱ஂಖ㇂ᕝࡢὶධỈ ࡶᾆᒣᕝࡢὶධỈ ࡜ྠࡌ࡜
ࡋࡓ㸬Ẽ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱࡣẼ 㸪‵ᗘ㸪㢼㏿㸪㢼ྥ㸪᪥ᑕ㔞㸪Ẽᅽ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࡢᒇୖ࡛
2.3 ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡀỈ㉁ண ィ⟬࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪ࡢ᳨ウ 29
ᐃࡉࢀࡓ 1 ᫬㛫ࡈ࡜ࡢᐇ ್ࢆ⏝࠸ࡓࡀ㸪㞼㔞࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣᐇ ್ࡀ࡞࠸ࡓࡵ㸪௜㏆ࡢ⇃
㇂(39 km)࡜๓ᶫ(50 km)ࡢ 3 ᫬㛫ࡈ࡜ࡢࢹ࣮ࢱࢆࡑࢀࡒࢀ 1 ᫬㛫ࡈ࡜࡟⥺ᙧ⿵㛫ࡋ࡚ࡑࡢ
2 ࠿ᡤࡢᖹᆒ್ࢆ⏝࠸ࡓ㸬ࢲ࣒㈓ỈụࡢỈ⌮㸫Ỉ㉁࡟኱ࡁ࡞ᙳ㡪ࢆ୚࠼ࡿ㑅ᢥྲྀỈ᪋タ㐠
⏝グ㘓࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣᾆᒣࢲ࣒஦ົᡤ࠿ࡽࡶࡽࡗࡓ㐠⏝᪥ㄅࢆࡶ࡜࡟タᐃࡋࡓ㸬㑅ᢥྲྀỈ᪋タ
ࡢྲྀỈỈ῝ࡣୗὶἙᕝࡢỈ ㄪ⠇(෭Ỉ㸪 Ỉ)࡜⃮Ỉ㜵Ṇࡢࡓࡵ࡟㐠⏝ࡉࢀࡓ㸬
(3) ὶධ⃰ᗘࡢタᐃ
ὶධỈ㉁⃰ᗘࡣ 2001~2009 ᖺࡢᾆᒣᕝࡢὶධ㒊࡟࠾ࡅࡿᐃᮇㄪᰝࡢᐇ ್ࢆ⏝࠸࡚
ᅗ ᖺ࡟࠾ࡅࡿὶධ㔞㸪ᨺὶ㔞㸪Ỉ఩ཬࡧྲྀỈỈ῝
L-Q᪉⛬ᘧࢆᑟฟࡋ㸪ࡑࢀࢆ⏝࠸࡚ὶධỈ㉁⃰ᗘࢆồࡵࡓ㸬ࡑࢀࡒࢀ㡯┠ࡢ⢭ᗘ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚
ࡣᅗ ࡟♧ࡋࡓ㸬ྛ㡯┠ࡢỴᐃಀᩘࡣࡑࢀࡒࢀ 0.455(NH 4 )㸪0.961(NO 3 )㸪0.952(TN)㸪
0.896(PO 4 )ཬࡧ 0.905(TP)࡜ࡋ࡚NH 4 ࡜PO 4 㝖࠸࡚ 0.9 ௨ୖࡢ㧗࠸Ỵᐃಀᩘࡀᚓࡽࢀࡓ(ᅗ
)㸬Chl.a࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣCAEDYM࡛ࡣ 7 ࢢ࣮ࣝࣉࡢ⸴㢮࡟ᑐࡍࡿィ⟬ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿࡀ㸪ᮏ◊✲
࡛ࡣ⸛⸴㢮(CYANO)㸪⌛⸴㢮(FDIAT)㸪⥳⸴㢮(CHLOR)㸪㠴ẟ⸴㢮(CRYPT)ࡢ 4 ࢢ࣮ࣝ
ࣉ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ィ⟬ࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ㸬ྛ⸴㢮࡟ヱᙜࡍࡿẚ⋡ࡣほ ࡉࢀࡓ⸴㢮ẖࡢࢭࣝᩘ࡜ࡑࢀࡒࢀ
ࡢ༢఩ࢭࣝᙜࡾࡢ㔜ࡉ(ǍJFHOO)[32]ࢆ฼⏝ࡋ࡚ồࡵࡓ㸬ྛ㔜ࡉࡣ 0.36™10- 6 ǍJFHOO(⸛⸴㢮)㸪
1.75™10- 6 ǍJFHOO(⌛⸴㢮)㸪0.95™10-5 ǍJFHOO(⥳⸴㢮)ཬࡧ 0.33™10-4 ǍJFHOO(㠴ẟ⸴㢮)
࡛࠶ࡗࡓ㸬ὶධSS⃰ᗘ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣ 2001~2009 ᖺ㛫ࡢᐃᮇㄪᰝ࡜ὥỈᮇࡢᐇ ್ࢆ⏝࠸࡚
⃮ᗘ㸫SS┦㛵ᘧࢆᑟฟࡋࡓ(ᅗ )㸬ࡉࡽ࡟㸪┦㛵ᘧࡣὶධ㔞つᶍࢆ 50 m3/s௨ୗ࡜ࡑࡢ
௨ୖ࡟ศࡅ㸪2 ࡘࡢᘧࢆὶධ㒊࡛ ᐃࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ⃮ᗘࢹ࣮ࢱ࠿ࡽ᥮⟬ࡋ࡚㐺⏝ࡋࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪
⢏ᚄࡣᐃᮇㄪᰝ࡜ὥỈ᫬࡟ ᐃࡋࡓ⢏ᗘศᕸࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸㸪ࡑࡢᖹᆒ್ࢆồࡵࡑࢀࡒࢀ 1㸪
3㸪8㸪12㸪16 ཬࡧ 25 ǍPࡢ 6 ࢢ࣮ࣝࣉ࡛タᐃࡋࡓ(⾲ )㸬
30 ➨ 2 ❶ ຊᏛⓗࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ࡟ࡼࡿࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡀࢲ࣒㈓ỈụࡢỈ㉁ண ࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪
ᅗ ὶධ㒊࡛ࡢྛỈ㉁㡯┠ࡢ /4 ᪉⛬ᘧ࡜ᐇ ್࡜ࡢẚ㍑
2.3 ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡀỈ㉁ண ィ⟬࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪ࡢ᳨ウ 31
ᅗ ᾆᒣᕝࡢὶධ㒊࡟࠾ࡅࡿほ ⃮ᗘ࡜ほ 66 ࡢ┦㛵ᅗ
⾲ ὶධ 66 ࡢ⢏ᚄ༊ศ
⢏ᚄ༊ศ
௦⾲⢏ᚄ
㓄ศẚ⋡(%)
⣼✚ẚ⋡(%)
~3 ǍP
1.0 ǍP
7.9
7.9
3~5 ǍP
3.0 ǍP
7.2
15.1
5~10 ǍP
8.0 ǍP
6.4
21.5
10~15 ǍP
12.0 ǍP
8.7
30.2
15~25 ǍP
16.0 ǍP
27.8
58.0
25 ǍPa
25.0 ǍP
42.0
100.0
32 ➨ 2 ❶ ຊᏛⓗࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ࡟ࡼࡿࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡀࢲ࣒㈓ỈụࡢỈ㉁ண ࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪
2.3.4 ෌⌧ィ⟬⤖ᯝࡢ᳨ウ
2000 ᖺࢆᑐ㇟࡟Ỉ఩࡜㈓Ỉᐜ㔞㸪Ỉ ࡜Ỉ㉁࡟ᑐࡍࡿ෌⌧ィ⟬ࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ⤖ᯝࢆ㈓Ỉụ
ෆࡢᇶ‽Ⅼ(ࢲ࣒ᨺὶᆅⅬ࠿ࡽ⣙ 500 m ୖὶ)࡜ᨺὶᆅⅬ(ࢲ࣒ᨺὶᆅⅬ࠿ࡽ┤ୗὶ 90 m ᆅ
Ⅼ)ࡢᐇ ್ࢆ⏝࠸࡚ẚ㍑ࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ㸬ᐃᮇㄪᰝ᫬ࡢỈ 㸪⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲(DO)㸪SS㸪TN㸪TP㸪
Chl.a ཬࡧࢭࣝᩘ࠿ࡽኚ᥮ࡉࢀࡓ⸴㢮✀ࡢ⃰ᗘ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚㸪
ᇶ‽Ⅼ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⾲ᒙ(Ỉ῝ 0.5 m)㸪
୰ᒙ(Ỉ῝ 40~45 m ௜㏆㸹ᖹᆒ EL. 332.5 m)㸪ᗏᒙ(Ỉ῝ 80~90 m ௜㏆㸹ᖹᆒ EL. 291.4 m)
ࡢ 3 ࠿ᡤ࡛ẚ㍑ࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ㸬ࡉࡽ࡟㸪ᨺὶᆅⅬ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࢲ࣒┤ୗὶ 90 m ᆅⅬ࡛ࡢᐇ ್
ࢆ⏝࠸࡚෌⌧ィ⟬࡜ࡢẚ㍑⾜ࡗࡓ㸬
(1) Ỉ఩࡜㈓Ỉᐜ㔞ࡢィ⟬⤖ᯝ
Ỉ఩࡜㈓Ỉᐜ㔞ࡢẚ㍑ࡣᵓ⠏ࡉࢀࡓᆅᙧࢹ࣮ࢱࡢ⢭ᗘࡸỈ཰ᨭࡢ☜ㄆࡢ┠ⓗࡀ࠶ࡿ㸬ィ
⟬ࡉࢀࡓỈ఩ࡣᐇ Ỉ఩࡜ࡢẚ㍑࡛AMEࡣ 0.490 m㸪RMSEࡣ 0.664 m࡜R2 ࡣ 0.977㸪㈓
Ỉᐜ㔞࡟ࡘ࠸࡚AMEࡣ 0.284™10 6 m3 㸪RMSEࡣ 0.314™10 6 m3 ࡜R2 ࡣ 0.974 ࡜࡞ࡾ㸪ᵓ
⠏ࡉࢀࡓᆅᙧࢹ࣮ࢱࡢಙ㢗ᛶࡀ㧗࠸ࡇ࡜ࡀศ࠿ࡗࡓ(ᅗ )㸬
ᅗ ᐇ Ỉ఩ࡸ㈓Ỉᐜ㔞࡜ࣔࢹࣝࡢィ⟬Ỉ఩ࡸ㈓Ỉᐜ㔞ࡢẚ㍑
2.3 ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡀỈ㉁ண ィ⟬࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪ࡢ᳨ウ 33
(2) ᇶ‽Ⅼ࡛ࡢィ⟬⤖ᯝ
(a) Ỉ ࡢ෌⌧ィ⟬⤖ᯝ
ᅗ ࡟ィ⟬ᮇ㛫࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ ࡢ㖄┤ศᕸ⤖ᯝࢆ♧ࡋࡓ㸬ᐇ ࢹ࣮ࢱ࡜ࡢẚ㍑ࡣᇶ‽Ⅼ
࡟タ⨨ࡉࢀ㸪ẖ᪥༗๓ 7 ᫬ཬࡧ༗ᚋ 7 ᫬࡟ ᐃࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ⮬ືほ ࢹ࣮ࢱࡢẖ᭶ 15 ᪥༗
๓ 7 ᫬ࡢࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸࡚ẚ㍑ࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ㸬ィ⟬Ỉ ࡣᡂᒙࡢᙧᡂ࡜Ꮨ⠇࡟క࠺ኚ໬ࢆࡼࡃィ
⟬ࡋ࡚ᐇ Ỉ ࡢ㖄┤ศᕸࢆࡼࡃ෌⌧ࡋࡓ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪Ỉ ࡣ⾲ᒙ(Ỉ῝ 0.5 m)㸪
୰ᒙ(ᖹᆒEL. 332.5 m)࡜ᗏᒙ(ᖹᆒEL. 291.4 m)࡛ࡢAMEࡣࡑࢀࡒࢀ 1.131㸪0.313 ࡜
0.470 Υ㸪RMSEࡣ 1.336㸪0.356 ࡜ 0.522 Υ࡛࠶ࡾ㸪R 2ࡣ 0.961㸪0.968㸪0.933 ࡜࡞ࡾ㸪
඲ᒙ࡟࠾࠸࡚ㄗᕪࡀᑠࡉࡃ⢭ᗘࡀ㧗࠸⤖ᯝࡀᚓࡽࢀࡓ㸬ࡉࡽ࡟㸪ࣔࢹ࡛ࣝ⏝࠸ࡓỈ 㛵ಀ
ࡢࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱࢆ⾲ ࡟♧ࡋࡓ㸬
(b) ⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲(DO)ࡢ෌⌧ィ⟬⤖ᯝ
ᇶ‽Ⅼࡢ඲ᒙ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ෌⌧ィ⟬ࡉࢀࡓ⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲ࡢAMEࡣ⾲ᒙ㸪୰ᒙ࡜ᗏᒙ࡛ࡑࢀࡒࢀ
0.821㸪1.128 ࡜ 1.563 mg/L㸪RMSEࡣ 1.064㸪1.366 ࡜ 2.149 mg/L㸪R 2ࡣ 0.460㸪0.190
࡜ 0.135 ࡜ࡋ࡚⾲ᒙ࡛⢭ᗘࡀ㧗ࡃ㸪ᗏᒙ࡛᭱ࡶప࠸⢭ᗘ࡛࠶ࡗࡓ㸬≉࡟㸪10 ᭶௨ᚋࡢ⁐Ꮡ
㓟⣲పୗࡢ෌⌧ィ⟬ࡀ༑ศ࡛࡞࠿ࡗࡓ㸬ࡇࡢཎᅉࡣSOD࡟ࡼࡿ㓟⣲ᾘ㈝࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡢ㛵㐃ࣃ
࣓࣮ࣛࢱࡢ ࢟ࣕࣜࣈ࣮ࣞࢩࣙࣥ ࡀ୙༑ศ࡞ࡓࡵ㸪⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲ࡢᾘ㈝ࡀᐇ㝿ࡼࡾᑠࡉ࠿ࡗࡓࡓ
ࡵ࡛࠶ࡿ(ᅗ ᕥ)㸬
(c) SS ࡢ෌⌧ィ⟬⤖ᯝ
SS࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣᅗ ྑ࡟♧ࡍ 1~4 ᭶࡟࠿ࡅ࡚๓ᖺ(1999 ᖺ)࠿ࡽṧ␃ࡋ࡚࠸ࡓᚤ⣽⢏Ꮚ
࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿSS⃰ᗘࡢ෌⌧ࡣ࡛ࡁ࡞࠿ࡗࡓ㸬෌⌧⢭ᗘࢆ⤫ィ್࡛ࡳࡿ࡜㸪⾲ᒙ࡛ࡢAME㸪
RMSE࡜R2 ࡣࡑࢀࡒࢀ 2.141㸪2.501 mg/L࡜ 0.170㸪୰ᒙ࡛ࡣ 2.670㸪3.613 mg/L࡜ 0.005㸪
ᗏᒙࡣ 3.808㸪4.589 mg/L࡜ 0.091 ࡛࠶ࡗࡓ㸬ᮇ㛫୰࡟Ⓨ⏕ࡋࡓฟỈࡣ㸪ᑠつᶍࡢฟỈࡀ
1 ᅇ࡛࠶ࡗࡓࡀ㸪ὥỈ࡟క࠺SSࡢỿ㝆ࡣ࠶ࡿ⛬ᗘ෌⌧ࡀ࡛ࡁࡓ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬
(d) TN㸪TP ࡜ Chl.a ࡢ෌⌧ィ⟬⤖ᯝ
TNࡢ෌⌧ィ⟬⤖ᯝࡣ࡝ࡢᒙ࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡶ෌⌧⢭ᗘࡀ㧗࠿ࡗࡓ(ᅗ )㸬⾲ᒙ㸪୰ᒙ࡜ᗏᒙ
࡛ࡢR 2 ࡣࡑ ࢀ ࡒࢀ 0.335㸪0.332 ࡜ 0.075 ࡛ ࠶ࡾ 0.5 ࡼࡾ ప࠸ ࡀ㸪 ㄗ ᕪ࡟ ࡘ࠸ ࡚ࡣ
0.021~0.049 mg/L(AME)㸪0.027~0.067 mg/L(RMSE)ࡢ⠊ᅖ࡜࡞ࡿ⤖ᯝࡀᚓࡽࢀࡓ㸬ࡇࢀ
࡟ᑐࡋ㸪TPࡢ 3 ࠿ᡤ࡛ࡢR2 ࡣ 0.006㸪0.293 ࡜ 0.018 ࡜࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀศ࠿ࡗࡓ㸬ࡇࢀࡣὶධ
ἙᕝࡢTP(PO 4 -P)ࡢL-Qᘧ࡟ࡼࡿ᥎ᐃㄗᕪ㸪᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥࡸSS࡟㛵ࡍࡿࣔࢹࣝࣃ࣓ࣛ
࣮ࢱ࡟㉳ᅉࡍࡿၥ㢟ࡀ࠶ࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬Chl.aࡣ⃰ᗘࡀ㧗ࡃ୍␒ၥ㢟࡜࡞ࡿ⾲ᒙࡢ᫬⣔ิ
ኚ໬ࢆࡼࡃ෌⌧࡛ࡁࡓ(ᅗ )㸬ࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢᒙ࡟ᑐࡍࡿR2 ࡣ 0.612㸪0.076 ࡜ 0.018 ࡜ࡋ࡚
⾲ᒙࡢ෌⌧⢭ᗘࡀ୍␒㧗࠸ࡇ࡜ࡀศ࠿ࡗࡓ㸬
34 ➨ 2 ❶ ຊᏛⓗࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ࡟ࡼࡿࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡀࢲ࣒㈓ỈụࡢỈ㉁ண ࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪
(e) 4 ࢢ࣮ࣝࣉࡢ⸴㢮ࡢ෌⌧ィ⟬⤖ᯝ
Chl.a ⃰ᗘ࡟ᑐࡋ࡚ 4 ࢢ࣮ࣝࣉࡢ⸴㢮✀ࢆ⪃៖ࡋࡓ⾲ᒙ࡛ࡢ෌⌧ィ⟬⤖ᯝࢆᅗ ࡟♧
ࡋࡓ㸬ࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢ⃰ᗘࡣᐃᮇㄪᰝࢹ࣮ࢱࡢࢭࣝᩘ(cell/mL)࠿ࡽ༢఩㔜ࡉ(ǍJ/cell)ࢆ᥃ࡅࡓ
๭ྜࢆ⏝࠸࡚ẚ㍑ࢆ⾜ࡗ࡚ 4 ࢢ࣮ࣝࣉࡢィ⟬⤖ᯝࡣᐇ ್ࡢ᫬⣔ิኚ໬ࢆࡼࡃ཯ᫎࡋࡓ㸬
ᅗ ᐇ ࡜ィ⟬Ỉ ࡢ㖄┤ศᕸᕥ࡜⾲ᒙ࣭୰ᒙ࣭ᗏᒙ࡟࠾ࡅࡿẚ㍑ྑ
ᅗ ⾲ᒙ࣭୰ᒙ࣭ᗏᒙ࡟࠾ࡅࡿᐇ ࡜ィ⟬ࡢ⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲ᕥ࡜ 66ྑࡢẚ㍑
2.3 ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡀỈ㉁ண ィ⟬࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪ࡢ᳨ウ 35
ᅗ ⾲ᒙ࣭୰ᒙ࣭ᗏᒙ࡟࠾ࡅࡿᐇ ࡜ィ⟬ࡢ 71ᕥ࡜ 73ྑࡢẚ㍑
ᅗ ⾲ᒙ࣭୰ᒙ࣭ᗏᒙ࡟࠾ࡅࡿᐇ ࡜ィ⟬ࡢ &KOD ⃰ᗘࡢẚ㍑
36 ➨ 2 ❶ ຊᏛⓗࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ࡟ࡼࡿࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡀࢲ࣒㈓ỈụࡢỈ㉁ண ࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪
ᅗ ᇶ‽Ⅼࡢ⾲ᒙ࡟࠾ࡅࡿᐇ ⸴㢮⃰ᗘ࡜ࣔࢹࣝࡢィ⟬⤖ᯝࡢẚ㍑
(3) ᨺὶᆅⅬ࡛ࡢィ⟬⤖ᯝ
ᨺὶᆅⅬ(ᨺὶཱྀࡢ┤ୗὶ 90 m)ࡢィ⟬⤖ᯝࢆᐇ ್࡜ẚ㍑ࡋࡓ⤖ᯝࢆᅗ ࡟♧ࡋࡓ㸬
ẚ㍑⤖ᯝࢆࡳࡿ࡜ྛ㡯┠ࡢ⢭ᗘࡣỈ ࡜ TN ࡢ⢭ᗘࡀ୍␒㧗ࡃ㸪⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲㸪SS ࡜ Chl.a ࡣ
࠶ࡿ⛬ᗘ㧗࠸⢭ᗘࡀࡳࡽࢀ࡚ TP ࡀ୍␒ప࠸⢭ᗘࡀᚓࡽࢀࡓ㸬඲యⓗ࡟ࡍ࡭࡚ࡢ෌⌧ィ⟬
ࡣ್ࡢୖ᪼࡜ୗ㝆ࡢኚ໬ࣃࢱ࣮ࣥࢆࡼࡃ෌⌧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬
ᅗ ᨺὶᆅⅬ࡟࠾ࡅࡿᐇ ್࡜Ỉ ཬࡧỈ㉁ィ⟬⤖ᯝࡢẚ㍑
2.3 ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡀỈ㉁ண ィ⟬࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪ࡢ᳨ウ 37
⾲ ෌⌧ィ⟬࡛⏝࠸ࡓỈ 㸪⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲㸪ᰤ㣴ሷ㸪&KOD ࡢࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱ
Parameter
Value
Description
Thermodynamic parameters
Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR)
1.00
Near Infrared Radiation (NIR)
1.00
Ultra Violet A Radiation (UVA)
1.00
Ultra Violet B Radiation (UVB)
2.50
Extinction coefficient (m-1)
Oxygen parameters
YO:C
rSOs
KSOs
2.67
Horizontal
value
Photosynthetic stoichiometry ratio of DO to
C (mg DO [mg C]-1)
Static sediment exchange rate (day -1)
Half saturation constant for sediment
oxygen demand (mg L-1)
Nutrient parameters
vN2
1.08
Temp multiplier for denitrification
koN2
0.03
Denitrification rate coefficient (day-1)
KN2
0.5
Half saturation const. for denitrification
(mgL-1)
vON
1.08
Temp multiplier for nitrification
koNH
0.05
Nitrification rate coefficient
Kon
2.0
Half saturation constant for nitrification
PON1max
0.002
Rate coefficient of PONL to DONL (day-1)
DON1max
0.003
Rate coefficient of DONL to NH4 (day-1)
POP1max
0.001
Rate coefficient of POPL to DOPL (day-1)
DOP1max
0.1
Rate coefficient of DONL to PO4 (day-1)
cyanobacteria (C1), diatoms (D), chlorophytes (C2), cryptophytes (C3)
Ǎmax C1,D,C2,C3
kr C1,D,C2,C3
v C1,D,C2,C3
0.6, 1.2, 1.1,
0.8
0.17, 0.08,
0.09, 0.10
na*, -0.1,
-0.01, -0.02
Maximum growth rates of algae (day-1)
Algal respiration, mortality, and excretion
(day-1)
Algal settling velocities (m day-1)
TST C1,D,C2,C3
25, 4, 19, 27
Standard temperature for algal growth (°C)
TOT C1,D,C2,C3
27, 5, 20, 29
Optimum temperature for algal growth (°C)
TMT C1,D,C2,C3
32, 14, 25, 34
Maximum temperature for algal growth (°C)
* : Time-varying settling velocity estimated by stokes equation with buoyancy control model
38 ➨ 2 ❶ ຊᏛⓗࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ࡟ࡼࡿࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡀࢲ࣒㈓ỈụࡢỈ㉁ண ࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪
2.3.5 ᙳ㡪᳨ウࡢࡓࡵࡢࣔࢹࣝࡢィ⟬
(1) ධຊࢹ࣮ࢱࡢẚ㍑
ᮏ⠇࡛ࡣࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣝࡉࢀࡓࢹ࣮ࢱ࡟ྵࡲࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡀࢲ࣒㈓ỈụࡢỈ㉁ண ࡟ཬࡰࡍᙳ㡪ࢆ᳨ウࡍࡿࡓࡵ㸪ᐇ ࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸ࡓ෌⌧ィ⟬⤖ᯝ࡜⿵ṇ๓࣭ᚋࡢẼ㇟ࢹ࣮
ࢱࢆ⏝࠸࡚ィ⟬⤖ᯝ࡜ࡢẚ㍑ࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ㸬ᮏ⠇ࡢィ⟬࡛⏝࠸ࡽࢀࡓᐇ ࡜ࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥ
ࢢࢹ࣮ࢱࡣ 2000 ᖺࡢࢹ࣮ࢱ࡛࠶ࡾ㸪⿵ṇᚋࡢィ⟬࡛⏝࠸ࡓẼ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱࡣᏘ⠇ࡢኚ໬ࢆ⪃
៖ࡋࡓ㢖ᗘศᕸ࣐ࢵࣆࣥࢢ(᪉ἲ 5)ࢆ᥇⏝ࡋ㸪㢼ྥࡢሙྜࡣ ࡛㏙࡭ࡓ᪉ἲࢆ㐺⏝ࡋࡓ
ࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸ࡓ㸬ᐇ ཬࡧ⿵ṇ๓࣭ᚋࡢィ⟬࡛᥇⏝ࡋࡓࢹ࣮ࢱࡢᖺᖹᆒ್ࢆ⾲ ࡟♧ࡋ
ࡓ㸬⿵ṇᚋࡢẼ ࡜Ẽᅽࡣᐇ ್࡟➼ࡋࡃ㸪‵ᗘ㸪㢼㏿ཬࡧ㞼㔞ࡣⱝᖸࡢᕪࡀ࠶ࡾ㸪᪥ᑕ
㔞ࡣ⣙ 7 W/m2 ࡢᕪࡀ࠶ࡗࡓ㸬⠊ᅖࢆ 0~1 ࡟ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ‵ᗘ࡜㞼㔞ࡣ⿵ṇᚋࡢࢹ࣮
ࢱࡀ 0 ࡼࡾᑠࡉ࠸ཬࡧ 1 ࡼࡾ኱ࡁ࠸᫬࡟ࡑࢀࢆ 0 ࡜ 1 ࡟ࡋࡓࡓࡵ㸪ᕪࡀ⏕ࡌࡓ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀ
ࡿ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪᪥ᑕ㔞ࡣ⿵ṇ࡛ࡁ࡞࠸ᐇ ࡜⿵ṇ๓ࢹ࣮ࢱࡢ 0 ᩘ(᪥ᑕ㔞ࡀ࡞࠸)ࡀ㐪࠺ࡓࡵ㸪0
ࡀከ࠸ᐇ ್(4,614 ಶ)ࡼࡾ⿵ṇᚋ(4,406 ಶ)ࡢᖺᖹᆒ್ࡀ㧗ࡃ࡞ࡗࡓ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡓ㸬
ࡲࡓ㸪ィ⟬᫬ࡢὶධỈ ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣ㸪෌⌧ィ⟬᫬ࡣᐇ ὶධỈ ࢆ⏝࠸㸪⿵ṇ๓࣭ᚋࡢ
ὶධỈ ࡣ 2006~2011 ᖺ(2008 ᖺࡣࢹ࣮ࢱḞ ࡀከ࠸ࡓࡵ㝖እ)ࡢ 5 ᖺ㛫ࡢᐇ ࢹ࣮ࢱ࠿
ࡽồࡵࡓẼ 㸫ὶධỈ ࡢ⛣ືᖹᆒ(24㸪48㸪72 ᫬㛫)ᅇᖐᘧࢆᑟฟࡋ࡚㐺⏝ࡋࡓ㸬ᑟฟࡉ
ࢀࡓᅇᖐᘧ(ᘧ 2.21)ࡢ⢭ᗘࡣR 2 㸸0.915㸪AME㸸1.35Υ㸪RMSE㸸1.71Υ࡜ࡋ࡚㧗࠸┦㛵
ࡀᚓࡽࢀࡓ㸬
ܶ‫ݓ‬௜௡௙ ൌ ͲǤͷͶͳ͵ ൈ ܶܽଶସ௛ െ ͲǤͶ͹ͳ͸ ൈ ܶܽସ଼௛
൅ͲǤ͸ʹ͸͹ ൈ ܶܽ଻ଶ௛ ൅ ͳǤ͸ͳʹ࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭࣭(2.21)
ࡇࡇ࡛Tw inf ࡣὶධỈ (Υ)㸪Ta 24h 㸪Ta 48h 㸪Ta 72h ࡣࡑࢀࡒࢀẼ ࡢ 24㸪48㸪72 ᫬㛫ࡢ⛣
ືᖹᆒẼ (Υ)࡛࠶ࡿ㸬
⾲ ィ⟬࡛⏝࠸ࡓᐇ ್㸪⿵ṇ๓࣭ᚋࡢẼ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱࡢᖺᖹᆒ್
Ẽ ‵ᗘ
㢼㏿
᪥ᑕ㔞
Ẽᅽ
㞼㔞
(䉝)
(%)
(m/s)
(W/m2)
(hPa)
(0-1)
ᐇ ್
12.541
75.6
2.664
133.667
965.85
0.364
⿵ṇ๓
13.855
68.0
3.045
207.209
952.72
0.341
⿵ṇᚋ
12.541
74.8
2.667
140.987
965.85
0.375
2.3 ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡀỈ㉁ண ィ⟬࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪ࡢ᳨ウ 39
ᐇ ್㸪ᅇᖐᘧ࡟ࡼࡾ⟬ᐃࡉࢀࡓィ⟬್࡜⿵ṇ್ࡢᖺᖹᆒỈ (᪥ᖹᆒὶධỈ ࡢ⠊ᅖ)
ࡣࡑࢀࡒࢀ 11.30Υ (0.6~25.6Υ)㸪11.25Υ (0.9~20.0Υ)ཬࡧ 10.34Υ (0.1~19.9Υ)࡛࠶ࡗ
ࡓ㸬ࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡟Ẽ ࢆ⏝࠸ࡓ⟬ᐃ࡛ࡣᖹᆒⓗ࡞ὶධỈ ࡢ᥎ᐃࡣ࡛ࡁ࡚ࡶ㸪ኟᏘ᪥୰ࡢỈ
ୖ᪼ࢆ㐣ᑠホ౯ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪Ꮨ⠇ⓗ࡞ഴྥࢆࡳࡿ࡜㸪ᐇ ್࡟ẚ࡭࡚ィ⟬್࡜⿵ṇ
್ࡣ෤࡜⛅ࡣపࡃ㸪ኟࡣ㧗࠸ഴྥࡀ࠶ࡿ㸬ࡇࢀࡽࡣ᥎ᐃᘧࡢ≉ᛶ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡓ(⾲ 㸪ᅗ
)㸬ࡉࡽ࡟㸪Ẽ ࢹ࣮ࢱ࡜ేࡏ࡚ẚ㍑ࡍࡿ࡜㸪Ẽ ࡢ⿵ṇ್࡜ᐇ ್ࡣ➼ࡋࡃ㸪ィ⟬್
ࡣᐇ ್ࡼࡾࡶ㧗࠸್ࢆ♧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬ࡋ࠿ࡋ㸪Ỉ ࡛ࡣィ⟬್ࡢ᪉ࡀᐇ ್࡟㏆࠸ࡇ࡜ࡀ
ศ࠿ࡿ(⾲ )㸬ࡇࢀࡣィ⟬ᑐ㇟࡜ࡋࡓ 2000 ᖺࡀࢲ࣒౪⏝㛤ጞࡢ⩣ᖺ࡛࠶ࡾ㸪సᡂࡋࡓᘧ
2-21 ࡢ㛵ಀࡀὶᇦ≧ἣࡢኚ໬➼ࡢᙳ㡪࡛㏆ᖺ࡜␗࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡓྍ⬟ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡓ㸬
ࡲࡓ㸪ὶධỈ㉁ࡣ 3 ࡘ(෌⌧ィ⟬㸪⿵ṇ๓࣭ᚋ)ࡢィ⟬࡛ࡍ࡭࡚ L-Q ᪉⛬ᘧ࠿ࡽồࡵࡓྠࡌ
⃰ᗘࢆ⏝࠸ࡓ㸬
⾲ ᪥ᖹᆒὶධỈ ࡢᐇ ್࣭⿵ṇ๓࣭⿵ṇᚋࡢᏘ⠇ẖࡢኚ໬
༢఩
᫓
ኟ
⛅
෤
Υ
3~5 ᭶
6~8 ᭶
9~11 ᭶
12~2 ᭶
ᐇ ್
9.94
17.01
13.31
4.90
(Ẽ )
(10.18)
(22.41)
(14.64)
(2.85)
⿵ṇ๓
10.35
17.66
12.28
4.65
(Ẽ )
(12.35)
(23.01)
(15.48)
(4.49)
⿵ṇᚋ
8.84
17.24
11.68
3.53
(Ẽ )
(10.18)
(22.41)
(14.64)
(2.85)
ᅗ ᪥ᖹᆒὶධỈ ࡢᐇ ್࣭⿵ṇ๓࣭⿵ṇᚋࡢẚ㍑
40 ➨ 2 ❶ ຊᏛⓗࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ࡟ࡼࡿࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡀࢲ࣒㈓ỈụࡢỈ㉁ண ࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪
(2) ᇶ‽Ⅼ࡟࠾ࡅࡿィ⟬⤖ᯝࡢ᳨ウ
ࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ࠿ࡽᚓࡽࢀࡓẼ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⿵ṇ࡞ࡋ࡟Ỉ㉁ண ィ⟬ࢆ⾜ࡗࡓࢣ࣮ࢫ
(ィ⟬್)࡜ࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ࠿ࡽࡢ್ࢆ⿵ṇ᪉ἲ 5(Ꮨ⠇ẖ㛵ᩘࢆ⏝࠸ࡓ㢖ᗘศᕸ࣐ࢵࣆ
ࣥࢢ)࡟ࡼࡗ࡚⿵ṇࡋࡓ್ࢆࡶ࡜࡟ࡋࡓỈ㉁ண ィ⟬ࢣ࣮ࢫ(⿵ṇ್)ࡢ 2 ࢣ࣮ࢫࢆ෌⌧ィ⟬
⤖ᯝࡢࢣ࣮ࢫ࡜ẚ㍑ࡋ⪃ᐹࡍࡿ㸬
(a) Ỉ ࡢィ⟬⤖ᯝ
ᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࡢᇶ‽Ⅼ࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ ィ⟬⤖ᯝࡢ㖄┤ศᕸࢆᅗ (ᕥ)࡟♧ࡋࡓ㸬ィ⟬⤖ᯝࢆࡳ
ࡿ࡜㸪ᐇ ್࡜⿵ṇ್ࡢỈ ศᕸࡣ࡯ࡰྠࡌ࡛࠶ࡗࡓࡀ㸪ィ⟬್ࡣࡑࢀࡽࡢẚ㍑ࡼࡾ᫂ࡽ࠿
࡟㧗࠸Ỉ ィ⟬⤖ᯝ࡜࡞ࡗࡓ㸬6 ᭶ 21 ᪥ࡢ⾲ᒙ࡟࠾࠸࡚㸪ィ⟬್ࡣ⿵ṇ್ࡼࡾࡶ 6.3Υ㧗࠸
Ỉ ࡛࠶ࡗࡓ(᭱኱㍑ᕪ)㸬ධຊࡉࢀࡓẼ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱࡣ㸪ᐇ ್ࡢᖺᖹᆒẼ ࡣ 12.5Υ㸪ィ⟬್
ࡀ 13.9Υ㸪⿵ṇ್ࡣ 12.5Υ㸪ࡲࡓ㸪ᖺᖹᆒ᪥ᑕ㔞ࡣࡑࢀࡒࢀ 130.2 W/m2ᐇ ್㸪207.2
W/m2(ィ⟬್)㸪141.0 W/m2(⿵ṇ್)࡜㸪ィ⟬್ࡀᐇ ್࡜⿵ṇ್ࡼࡾ㧗࠸ࡇ࡜ࡀཎᅉ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬
ࡉࡽ࡟㸪ィ⟬࡛ᚓࡽࢀࡓẼ ࢆእຊࡢቃ⏺᮲௳࡜ࡋ࡚୚࠼࡚࠸ࡿࡓࡵ㸪ィ⟬್࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡣ୙
⮬↛࡞⇕཰ᨭࡀ⏕ࡌ࡚࠸ࡿሙྜࡀ࠶ࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬
(b) ⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲ࡢィ⟬⤖ᯝ
⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲ࡢศᕸࡣỈ ศᕸ࡯࡝኱ࡁ࡞㐪࠸ࡣࡳࡽࢀࡎ㸪12 ᭶ 15 ᪥ࡢศᕸ࠿ࡽศ࠿ࡿࡼ
࠺࡟㸪Ỉ ࡢ㐪࠸࡟ࡼࡿ㣬࿴⃰ᗘࡢ㐪࠸ࡀཎᅉ࡜ࡋ࡚ᨭ㓄ⓗ࡞ࡶࡢ࡛࠶ࡿ(ᅗ ྑ)㸬ࡓ
ࡔࡋ㸪6~8 ᭶ࡢศᕸ࡛ࡇࢀࡀ᫂☜࡛࡞࠸ࡢࡣ㸪᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥࡢගྜᡂࡢᙳ㡪ࢆཷࡅ࡚
࠸ࡿ࠿ࡽ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬
ᅗ ᐇ ್࣭ィ⟬್࣭⿵ṇ್ࡢỈ ᕥ࡜⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲ྑࡢ㖄┤ศᕸィ⟬⤖ᯝ
2.3 ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡀỈ㉁ண ィ⟬࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪ࡢ᳨ウ 41
(c) SS ࡢィ⟬⤖ᯝ
SS ࡢሙྜࡣ 3 ࡘࡢࢣ࣮ࢫ࡛㖄┤ศᕸẖ࡟኱ࡁ࡞㐪࠸ࡣぢࡽࢀ࡞࠿ࡗࡓ(ᅗ ᕥ)㸬ࡇ
ࢀࡣィ⟬್࡛ࡢỈ ศᕸࡣ௚ࡢࢣ࣮ࢫࡼࡾࡶ ࠿࠸ࡶࡢࡢ㸪ὶධỈ ࡶྠᵝ࡟㧗ࡃ࡞ࡿࡓ
ࡵ㸪⃮Ỉࡢ㈏ධ≧ἣ࡟㐪࠸ࡀぢࡽࢀ࡞࠿ࡗࡓ࠿ࡽ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬ࡓࡔࡋ㸪ᑗ᮶ࡣὶฟࣔࢹ
ࣝ࡜⤌ࡳྜࢃࡏ࡚ὶධ㔞ࢆኚ໬ࡉࡏࡿ࡜ࡁ࡟ࡣ㞵㔞࣭ὶ㔞ࡢㄗᕪࡀ኱ࡁࡃᙳ㡪ࢆཬࡰࡍ࡜
᥎ ࡛ࡁࡿ㸬
(c) TN㸪TP ࡜ Chl.a ࡢィ⟬⤖ᯝ
㈓Ỉụෆࡢ⾲ᒙ࡟࠾ࡅࡿTN࣭TPࡢ⃰ᗘ࡟ࡣࢣ࣮ࢫ㛫ࡢ኱ࡁ࡞ᕪ␗ࡣぢࡽࢀ࡞࠿ࡗࡓ(ᅗ
ྑୖ㸪ྑ୰)㸬ィ⟬࡟⏝࠸ࡓἙᕝὶධ㔞࡜TN࡜TP➼ࡢ⃰ᗘࡣ࡝ࡢࢣ࣮ࢫ࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡶྠ
ࡌ࡛࠶ࡿࡓࡵ㸪ὶධἙᕝࡢ㈏ධ఩⨨ࡢ㐪࠸࡟ࡼࡿᰤ㣴ሷࡢᥦ౪Ỉ῝ࡢ㐪࠸ࡸ⸴㢮ࡢᡂ㛗࡜
Ṛ⁛࡟ࡼࡿኚ໬ࡀ㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ㛫ࡢTN࣭TPࡢኚ໬࡟ᙳ㡪ࢆ୚࠼࡚࠸ࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪
㈓Ỉụෆᇶ‽Ⅼࡢ⾲ᒙ࡟࠾ࡅࡿChl.aࡢ㐪࠸ࡣ᫂ࡽ࠿࡛࠶ࡗࡓ㸬᪥ᖹᆒ᭱኱Chl.a࡛ᐇ ್
(෌⌧ィ⟬)㸪ィ⟬್࡜⿵ṇ್ࡣࡑࢀࡒࢀ ǍJ/ ᭶ 2 ᪥)㸪60.6 ǍJ/ ᭶ 15 ᪥)ཬࡧ
62.1 ǍJ/ ᭶ 22 ᪥)࡜࡞ࡾ㸪᭱኱⃰ᗘ࡜ࡑࡢⓎ⏕᪥ࡶ␗࡞ࡗࡓ(ᅗ ྑୗ)㸬≉࡟ィ⟬
್࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡣỈ ࡀ㧗ࡃ࡞ࡗࡓᙳ㡪ࢆཷࡅ㸪Chl.aࡢࣆ࣮ࢡࡢ᫬ᮇࡀ᪩ࡃ࡞ࡿࡓࡅ࡛࡞ࡃ㸪
୍ᗘ 6 ᭶ 19 ᪥࡟ࣆ࣮ࢡ(57.1 ǍJ/)ࢆ♧ࡋࡓ㸬ࡑࡢᚋ㸪Chl.aࡢᡂ㛗࡟኱஦࡞ᙺ๭ࢆᢸࡗ࡚
࠸ࡿPO 4 -PࡢᯤῬ࡟ࡼࡿ⃰ᗘࡢపୗࢆ♧ࡋࡓᚋ㸪7 ᭶ 8 ᪥࡟Ⓨ⏕ࡋࡓὥỈ࡟ࡼࡿᰤ㣴ሷࡢ
⿵⤥ᚋ࡟෌ࡧࣆ࣮ࢡࢆ㏄࠼࡚࠾ࡾ㸪᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥࡢฟ⌧ࣃࢱ࣮ࣥࡶ␗࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡓ㸬⿵
ṇ್࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࣆ࣮ࢡࡢ᫬ᮇࡣᐇ ್ࡼࡾ⣙ 11 ᪥᪩࠸ࡀ㸪Chl.a⃰ᗘࡢቑຍ࡜ῶᑡࡍࡿࣃ
ࢱ࣮ࣥࡣᴫࡡ୍⮴ࡍࡿ⤖ᯝࡀᚓࡽࢀࡓ㸬
ᅗ ᐇ ್࣭ィ⟬್࣭⿵ṇ್ࡢ 66ᕥࡢ㖄┤ศᕸ࡜
⾲ᒙ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ 71࣭73࣭&KODྑࡢィ⟬⤖ᯝ
42 ➨ 2 ❶ ຊᏛⓗࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ࡟ࡼࡿࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡀࢲ࣒㈓ỈụࡢỈ㉁ண ࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪
(3) ᨺὶᆅⅬ࡟࠾ࡅࡿィ⟬⤖ᯝࡢ᳨ウ
㈓Ỉụෆ࡜࡜ࡶ࡟⏝Ỉ౪⤥ࡢ┠ⓗ࡜ࡋ࡚኱஦࡞ᙺ๭ࢆᢸࡗ࡚࠸ࡿୗὶἙᕝࡢኚ໬ࢆ᳨ウ
ࡍࡿࡓࡵ㸪ᨺὶᆅⅬࡢィ⟬⤖ᯝࢆ᳨ウࡋࡓ(ᅗ )㸬ᐇ ್㸪ィ⟬್ཬࡧ⿵ṇ್ࡢᨺὶỈ
ࡢᖺᖹᆒ್(ኚື⠊ᅖ)ࡣࡑࢀࡒࢀ 11.93Υ(6.55~25.96Υ)㸪14.01Υ(7.74~29.71Υ)ཬࡧ
12.18Υ(6.74~26.70Υ)࡛࠶ࡗࡓ㸬ᐇ ್࡟ࡼࡿィ⟬⤖ᯝ࡜ẚ࡭ࡿ࡜㸪ィ⟬್࡟ࡼࡿィ⟬ࡼ
ࡾ⿵ṇ್࡟ࡼࡿィ⟬࡛᫂ࡽ࠿࡟ᖺᖹᆒỈ ࡢᕪࡀᑠࡉࡃ㸪ኚື⠊ᅖࡶ⊃࠸ࡇ࡜ࡀศ࠿ࡗࡓ㸬
ࡲࡓ㸪3 ࡘࡢィ⟬࡟ࡼࡿ⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲ࡢᨺὶ⃰ᗘ(ኚື⠊ᅖ)ࡣࡑࢀࡒࢀ 8.82 mg/L(6.15~11.12
mg/L)㸪8.50 mg/L(5.76~11.07 mg/L)㸪8.84 mg/L (5.99~12.25 mg/L)࡜ࡋ࡚ィ⟬್ࡼࡾ⿵
ṇ್࡟ࡼࡿィ⟬࡛ㄗᕪࡀᑠࡉ࠿ࡗࡓ㸬SS ࡢኚື⠊ᅖࡣ 0~19.7 mg/L㸪0~15.2 mg/L㸪0~15.1
mg/L ࡛኱ࡁ࡞ᕪࡣࡳࡽࢀ࡞࠿ࡗࡓ㸬TN ࡜ TP ࡢᖹᆒᨺὶ⃰ᗘࡣ඲࡚ࡢィ⟬࡛ࡑࢀࡒࢀ
0.85 mg/L ཬࡧ 0.013 mg/L ࡛࡯࡜ࢇ࡝ᕪࡀ࡞࠿ࡗࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ᨺὶ Chl.a ࡢᖹᆒ⃰ᗘࡣྛィ
⟬࡛ 2.1 ǍJ/㸪2.0 ǍJ/㸪2.5 ǍJ/ ࡛࠶ࡾ㸪⿵ṇ್ࡼࡾィ⟬್ࡢሙྜ࡛ᐇ ್࡟ࡼࡿィ⟬
࡜ࡢㄗᕪࡀᑠࡉ࠿ࡗࡓ㸬ࡇࢀࡣ 7 ᭶୰᪪࠿ࡽᇶ‽Ⅼ࡟࠾ࡅࡿィ⟬್ࡢ Chl.a ⃰ᗘࡣ௚ࡢィ
⟬࡜ẚ࡭࡚పࡃ࡚ࡑࢀࡀ⾲ᒙᨺὶࡉࢀࡓࡓࡵ㸪⿵ṇ್ࡼࡾప࠸⃰ᗘ࡟࡞ࡗࡓ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬
ᅗ ᨺὶᆅⅬ࡟࠾ࡅࡿᐇ ್࣭ィ⟬್࣭⿵ṇ್ࡢỈ ࡜Ỉ㉁ࡢィ⟬⤖ᯝ
2.4 ⤖ㄒ 43
2.4 ⤖ㄒ ᮏ❶࡛ࡣ㸪ᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࢆᑐ㇟࡟ JRA25 ࢆࡶ࡜࡟ WRF ࢆ⏝࠸ࡓຊᏛⓗࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ
ࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ⤖ᯝࢆ⏝࠸㸪ࡑࡢ⤖ᯝࢆ」ᩘࡢ᪉ἲ࡛⿵ṇࡋࡓࢹ࣮ࢱ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚⢭ᗘࢆホ౯ࡍࡿ࡜
࡜ࡶ࡟ 3 ḟඖ†἟⏕ែ⣔ࣔࢹ࡛ࣝ࠶ࡿ ELCOM-CAEDYM ࢆ㐺ᛂࡋࡓ࡜ࡁࡢ㸪ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵
ṇࡀ㈓ỈụỈ㉁࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪ࢆホ౯ࡋࡓ㸬ࡇࡇ࡛ᚓࡽࢀࡓᡂᯝࡣ௨ୗࡢ㏻ࡾ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬 1) ᾆᒣࢲ࣒௜㏆ࡢẼ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱࡢࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡢ᳨ウࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ⤖ᯝ㸪ᑗ᮶᫬࡬ࡢ
㐺ᛂࢆ⪃៖ࡋࡓሙྜ㸪㢖ᗘศᕸ࣐ࢵࣆࣥࢢࡀ᭱ࡶ㐺ษ࡞⿵ṇ᪉ἲ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪⿵
ṇᚋࡢ⢭ᗘ࠿ࡽẼ 㸪Ẽᅽ㸪᪥ᑕ㔞㸪㞼㔞㸪‵ᗘ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇࡀྍ⬟࡛࠶ࡿࡀ㸪
㢼ྥ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣ⤫ィⓗࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢࡀ᭷ຠ࡛࠶ࡾ㸪㢼ྥ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࡶࡗ࡜ヲ⣽࡞ࢲ
࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ➼ࡢᑐᛂࡀᚲせ࡛࠶ࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡓ㸬
2) ELCOM-CAEDYM ࣔࢹࣝࢆ⏝࠸ࡓ᳨ウࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ⤖ᯝ㸪ࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ࠿ࡽᚓࡽ
ࢀࡓẼ ࡸ᪥ᑕ㔞࡞࡝࡟㐺ษ࡞ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇࢆ⾜࠺ࡇ࡜࡟ࡼࡾ㸪ࢲ࣒†ෆ࡜ࡑࡢᙳ㡪ࢆᙉ
ࡃཷࡅࡿୗὶἙᕝ(ࢲ࣒┤ୗὶ 90 m)࡟ࡘ࠸᳨࡚ウࡋࡓ⤖ᯝ㸪SS㸪TN ࡸ TP ⃰ᗘ࡟୚࠼ࡿ
ᙳ㡪ࡣᑠࡉ࠿ࡗࡓ㸬ࡋ࠿ࡋ࡞ࡀࡽ㸪Ỉ ࡜᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥ(Chl.a)࡟ࡣ኱ࡁ࡞ᙳ㡪ࢆ୚࠼
ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀศ࠿ࡗࡓ㸬ࡉࡽ࡟㸪᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥࡢࣂ࢖࣐࢜ࢫ࡟኱ࡁ࡞ᙳ㡪ࢆ୚࠼ࡿ⾲ᒙỈ
࡟㔜せ࡞⇕཰ᨭࡢၥ㢟ࢆᑡ࡞ࡃࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿࡇ࡜ࡀศ࠿ࡗࡓ㸬
௒ᚋࡣẼ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱẖ࡟㐺ษ࡞⿵ṇ᪉ἲ(౛࠼ࡤ㸪Ẽ ࣭㢼㏿࣭‵ᗘࡣṇつศᕸ㸪᪥ᑕ㔞ࡣ
࣮࣋ࢱศᕸࡀ㐺ษࡍࡿ࡜࠸࠺ㄽᩥ[45][46]ࡀ࠶ࡿ)ࢆ᳨ウࡋ㸪ࡼࡾ㧗࠸⢭ᗘࡢୖ࡛ ᬮ໬࡟
క࠺ヲ⣽࡞ࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ㔞࣭Ỉ㉁ၥ㢟ࢆ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟ࡋ࡚࠸ࡃᚲせࡀ࠶ࡿ㸬ࡉࡽ࡟㸪
ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿண ࡉࢀࡓỈ㉁ၥ㢟(෭࣭ Ỉᨺὶ㸪⃮Ỉ㛗ᮇ໬㸪࢔࢜ࢥ)࡟ࡘ࠸࡚Ỉ㉁ಖ඲
᪋タ࡛࠶ࡿ㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛ࡜ࣂ࢖ࣃࢫࡢ㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿỈ㉁ಖ඲ࡸᨵၿຠᯝࢆホ౯ࡍࡿᚲせࡀ࠶
ࡿ㸬ᚑࡗ࡚㸪ᮏ◊✲ࡢ➨ ❶࡛ࡣ㸪ᾆᒣࢲ࣒࡟࠾ࡅࡿᑗ᮶ண ࢆ⾜࠸㸪Ỉ㔞࣭Ỉ㉁ၥ㢟࡟
ࡘ࠸᳨࡚ウ⾜࠺㸬ࡲࡓ㸪➨ ❶࡛ࡣ㸪ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿண ࡉࢀࡓ⤖ᯝࢆ⏝࠸㸪㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛ
࡟ࡼࡿỈ㉁ኚ໬ࢆ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟ࡍࡿୖ࡛㸪㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛࡢ᭱㐺㐠⏝᪉ἲࡢᥦ᱌ࢆ⾜࠺㸬
44 ➨ 2 ❶ ཧ⪃ᩥ⊩
̿➨ 2 ❶ཧ⪃ᩥ⊩̿
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experimental hydrologic forecasting for the eastern United States, J. Geophys. Res.
Atomos., 107, D20, 4429.
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implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate model
outputs, Climatic Change, 62, 189-216.
[3] Hashino, T., Bradley, A. A. and Schwartz, S. S., 2007. Evaluation of bias-correction
methods for ensemble streamflow volume forecast. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11,
939-950.
[4] ⊦⫤ᗈ඾㸪➉ෆ㑥Ⰻ㸪῝ぢ࿴ᙪ㸪2009. GCM 㝆Ỉ㔞ࢹ࣮ࢱࡢ⤫ィⓗࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇᡭἲ
࡟㛵ࡍࡿ⪃ᐹ㸪ỈᕤᏛㄽᩥ㞟㸪➨ 53 ᕳ㸪223-228.
[5] ῰ᑿḠᘯ㸪㰓ಙḟ㑻㸪2010. ኱㞵࡟╔┠ࡋࡓẼೃࣔࢹࣝ᪥㝆Ỉ㔞ฟຊࡢࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇ
ᡭἲẚ㍑㸪ỈᕤᏛㄽᩥ㞟㸪➨ 54 ᕳ㸪235-240.
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simulation studies. Agricultural and forest meteorology, 138, 44-53.
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Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc, 80, 2313-2329.
[9] ⸨ཎὒ୍㸪⏣୰㈼἞㸪Ώ㑓⤂⿱㸪ᑠᑼ฼἞㸪2008. GCMs࣭ࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ࣭Ỉᩥ
ࣔࢹࣝ࡟㉳ᅉࡍࡿ ᬮ໬ᙳ㡪ホ౯ࡢ୙☜ᐇᛶ㸪ỈᕤᏛㄽᩥ㞟㸪➨ 52 ᕳ㸪373-378.
[10] Najafi, M. R., Moradkhani, H. and Jung, I. W., 2011. Assessing the uncertainties of
hydrologic model selection in climate change impact studies. Hydrol. Process., 25,
2814-2826.
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Matsumoto, T., Yamazaki, N., Kamahori, H. Takahashi, K., Kadokura, S., Wada, K.,
Kato, K., Oyama, R., Ose, T., Mannoji, N. and Taira. R., 2007. The JRA-25
Reanalysis, J. Meteor. Soc. Japan, 85, 369-432.
[12] Fuchs, R., 2011. Empirical-Statistical Post-Processing of Radiation and Humidity Parameters
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University of Graz, Scientific Report No. 42.
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46 ➨ 2 ❶ ཧ⪃ᩥ⊩
2007. Modelling the effects of Po River discharge, internal nutrient cycling and
hydrodynamics on biogeochemistry of the Northern Adriatic Sea. Journal of
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47
➨ 3 ❶ ᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ
㉁ண 3.1 ᴫㄝ
ᛴ⃭࡞⤒῭ᡂ㛗࡜ே㛫άືࡢᣑ኱࡟క࠺▼Ἔࡸ▼Ⅳࡢᾘ㈝ቑຍࡣ஧㓟໬Ⅳ⣲࡞࡝ࡢ ᐊ
ຠᯝ࢞ࢫࢆ኱Ẽ୰࡟᤼ฟࡉࡏ࡚኱Ẽ୰ࡢCO 2 ⃰ᗘࢆቑຍࡉࡏ㸪ᆅ⌫ ᬮ໬ࢆຍ㏿໬ࡉࡏ࡚
࠸ࡿ࡜ゝࢃࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ[1]㸬 ᬮ໬࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ὶᇦࡢỈ㈨※࡟኱ࡁ࡞ኚ໬ࡀⓎ⏕ࡍࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡀ㧗
ࡃ࡞ࡾ㸪 ᬮ໬ࡀỈ㈨※࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪ࢆホ౯ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀᚲせ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬
1990 ᖺ௦௨ᚋ㸪ᆅ⌫ ᬮ໬ࡸẼೃኚືࡀỈ㈨※࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪ࢆ᳨ウࡍࡿࡓࡵ࡟ୡ⏺࡛ከ
ᵝ࡞◊✲ࡀάⓎ࡟㐍ࢇ࡛࠸ࡿ㸬◊✲ึᮇ࡟ࡣከᵝ࡞⤫ィⓗ࡞᪉ἲࡀ㐺⏝ࡉࢀ㸪඲⌫Ẽೃࣔ
ࢹࣝ(Global Circulation Model㸹GCM)ࡢィ⟬⤖ᯝࢆᐇ㝿ࡢὶᇦ࡟㐺⏝ࡍࡿࡓࡵࡢヲ⣽໬
᪉ἲ࡟╔┠ࡋ࡚⾜ࢃࢀ࡚ࡁࡓ[2][3]㸬2000 ᖺ௦௨ᚋࡼࡾከᵝ࡞ GCM ཬࡧᆅᇦẼೃࣔࢹࣝ
RCM(Regional Climate Model)ࡀ㛤Ⓨࡉࢀ㸪ࡑࢀࡽࢆ⏝࠸࡚ண ࡉࢀࡓ⤖ᯝ࡜㝆㞵ὶฟ
ࣔ ࢹ ࣝ ࢆ 㐃 ᦠ ࡋ ࡓ ◊ ✲ ࡀ ⾜ ࢃ ࢀ ࡚ ࡁ ࡓ [4][5][6] 㸬 ࡲ ࡓ 㸪 ᭱ ㏆ ࡣ ௦ ⾲ ⓗ ⃰ ᗘ ࣃ ࢫ
RCP(Representative Concentration Pathways)࡜࠸࠺᪂ࡓ࡞஧㓟໬Ⅳ⣲᤼ฟࢩࢼࣜ࢜ࡀ
タᐃࡉࢀ࡚࠾ࡾ㸪᭱᪂ࡢ஧㓟໬Ⅳ⣲᤼ฟഴྥࢆ཯ᫎࡋ㸪ಙ㢗ᛶ࡜ጇᙜᛶࡀ௨๓ࡼࡾ㧗ࡃ࡞
ࡗࡓࢹ࣮ࢱ࡟ࡶ࡜࡙ࡃẼೃኚື◊✲ࡀ⾜ࢃࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ[7]㸬ࡋ࠿ࡋ࡞ࡀࡽ㸪 ᬮ໬ࡀࢲ࣒㈓Ỉ
ụࡢỈ⎔ቃ࡟୚࠼ࡿ◊✲ࡣ㝆㞵ࡸὶฟ࡟㛵ࡍࡿ◊✲࡜ẚ࡭࡚ᑡ࡞ࡃ㸪Ỉ ࡸᡂᒙᙉᗘ࡟㛵
ࡍࡿ◊✲ࡀከ࠸[8][9]㸬ࡉࡽ࡟㸪ࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞◊✲࡛⏝࠸ࡽࢀࡓࢹ࣮ࢱࡣỈ ࡟ᙳ㡪ࢆ୚࠼ࡿ
Ẽ㇟せ⣲(౛࠼ࡤ㸪Ẽ ࣭᪥ᑕ㔞࣭㞼㔞࡞࡝)ࡢ୰࡛Ẽ ࡔࡅࢆ⏝࠸ࡓሙྜࡀከ࠸ࡓࡵ㸪ᑗ
᮶ண ࡢ☜ᐇᛶࡀ༑ศ࡟☜ಖࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ࡜ࡣゝ࠼࡞࠸㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ࢲ࣒ࡢ㔜せ࡞┠ⓗࡢ 1 ࡘ࡛
࠶ࡿ㉁ࡢ㧗࠸⏕ά⏝Ỉࡢ౪⤥ࡢࡓࡵ࡟㸪⃮㉁ࡸ᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥࢆྵࡴỈ㉁ኚ໬ࡢ᳨ウࡀ
ᚲせ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬
ࡑࡇ࡛ᮏ❶࡛ࡣ㸪㒔ᕷᅪࢆ୰ᚰ࡟ 1 ᪥ 35 ୓m3 ࡢỈ㐨⏝Ỉࢆ౪⤥ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㔜せ࡞Ỉ࣓࢞
࡛࠶ࡿⲨᕝὶᇦࡢᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࢆᑐ㇟࡟ 1) 㡿ᇦẼ㇟ࣔࢹࣝWRF࡟ࡼࡾࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣝࡉࢀࡓ
㛗ᮇ㛫ࡢᑗ᮶ண ᝟ሗࢆసᡂࡋ㸪2)ࡑࡢ⤖ᯝࡢ㝆Ỉ㔞ࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸࡚Ⲩᕝὶᇦࡢὶฟண ࡟ࡼࡾᾆᒣࢲ࣒࡬ࡢὶධ㔞ࢆ⟬ᐃࡋ㸪3)ண ࡉࢀࡓẼ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱ࡜ὶ㔞ࢹ࣮ࢱࢆࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵
ṇࡋࡓୖ࡛㸪⃮ᗘࡸ᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥࡢᣦᶆ࡛࠶ࡿSSࡸChl.aࢆྵࡴᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࡢỈ㉁ண ࢆ⾜࠸㸪ࢲ࣒†ෆ࡜ୗὶἙᕝ࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ㉁ኚ໬ࢆ᳨ウࡍࡿ㸬Ỉ㉁ண ࡟⏝࠸ࡿ 3 ḟඖ†἟
⏕ែ⣔ࣔࢹࣝELCOM-CAEDYMࡢẼ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱࡣ㸪Ẽ ࢆྵࡴ‵ᗘ㸪㢼㏿࣭㢼ྥ㸪᪥ᑕ㔞㸪
Ẽᅽཬࡧ㞼㔞࡛࠶ࡾ㸪ࡇࢀࡲ࡛ࡢẼ ࡢࡳ⏝࠸ࡓ᳨ウࡼࡾ⢭⦓࡞ண ⤖ᯝࡀᚓࡽࢀࡿ
48 ➨ 3 ❶ ᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪⌧ᅾẼೃࡣ 2002~2010 ᖺ㸪ᑗ᮶Ẽೃࡣ 2062~2070 ᖺࡢࡑࢀࡒࢀ 9
ᖺ㛫ࢆᑐ㇟࡜ࡋࡓ㸬
3.2 Ẽ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱࡢᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝࡢ᳨ウ
3.2.1 ᑗ᮶Ẽೃண ࡢᴫせ
⡿ᅜ኱Ẽ◊✲ᡤࢆ୰ᚰ࡜ࡋ࡚㛤Ⓨࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㠀㟼ຊ㡿ᇦẼ㇟ࣔࢹࣝ WRF ࢆ⏝࠸ࡓᑗ᮶
Ẽೃࡢࠕ␲ఝ ᬮ໬ᐇ㦂ࠖࡢຊᏛⓗࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ࡟ࡼࡾ㸪ᑐ㇟㡿ᇦࡢᑗ᮶Ẽ㇟ࡢ᥎
ᐃࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ⤖ᯝࢆ᥇⏝ࡋࡓ㸬ࣔࢹࣝࢆ㐺⏝ࡍࡿ࡟࠶ࡓࡾ㸪ࡲࡎ㸪2001~2004 ᖺࡣẼ㇟ᗇ㛗
ᮇ෌ゎᯒࢹ࣮ࢱ࡛࠶ࡿ JRA25(Japanese 25-year ReAnalysis)࡜ 2005~2010 ᖺࡣẼ㇟ᗇẼ
ೃࢹ࣮ࢱྠ໬ࢩࢫࢸ࣒࡛࠶ࡿ JCDAS(JMA Climate Data Assimilation System)ࢆࡶ࡜࡟
WRF ࣔࢹࣝࢆ⏝࠸ࡓ⌧ᅾẼೃࡢࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢࢆ⾜࠸㸪ὶᇦ㝆Ỉ㔞ࡢ෌⌧ᛶ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚
☜ㄆࡀ⾜ࢃࢀࡓ㸬ࡑࡢ⤖ᯝ㸪ಶࠎࡢ㝆Ỉ࢖࣋ࣥࢺࡢⓎ⏕ࢱ࢖࣑ࣥࢢࡸᖺ⥲㝆Ỉ㔞࡟ࡘ࠸࡚
ࡣ㸪ࡸࡸᐇ ್࡜ᕪ␗ࡶぢࡽࢀࡓࡶࡢࡢ㸪㝆Ỉ㔞ࡢᏘ⠇࣭ᖺኚືࡸ✵㛫ศᕸࣃࢱ࣮ࣥ࡟ࡘ
࠸࡚ࡣᴫࡡጇᙜ࡞ィ⟬⤖ᯝ࡛࠶ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ☜ㄆࡉࢀࡓ㸬
␲ఝ ᬮ໬᫬ࡢタᐃ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣ㸪Sato ࡽ[10]ࡢᡭἲ࡟ᇶ࡙ࡁసᡂࡋ㸪ࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥ
ࢢࡀ⾜ࢃࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬ᑗ᮶Ẽೃ᝟ሗ࡟ࡣ㸪➨ 5 ḟ⤖ྜࣔࢹࣝ┦஫ẚ㍑ࣉࣟࢪ࢙ࢡࢺ࡛౑⏝ࡉ
ࢀࡓࢹ࣮ࢱ(5 phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison ProjectCMIP5)࠿ࡽ㸪⡿ᅜ኱
Ẽᾏὒᗇ(National Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationNOAA)ࡢ Geophygical
Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ࡟ࡼࡿ CM3(GFDL-CM3)ࡢ 2061~2070 ᖺࡢ 10 ᖺ㛫ࡢ ᬮ
໬⤖ᯝࡀ⏝࠸ࡽࢀ㸪᭱㏆ࡢ ᐊ࢞ࢫ⃰ᗘኚ໬ഴྥࢆ཯ᫎࡋࡓ IPCC ➨ 5 ḟホ౯ሗ࿌᭩ࡢ
RCP4.5 ࢩࢼࣜ࢜(Representative Concentration Pathways㸪⾲ )ࡢ 2001~2010 ᖺཬࡧ
2061~2070 ᖺࡢྛ 10 ᖺ㛫࡟࠾ࡅࡿྛ᭶ࡢᖹᆒሙࡢᕪศࢆ฼⏝࡟␲ఝ ᬮ໬⤖ᯝࢆ᥇⏝ࡋ
ࡓ(ᅗ )㸬WRF ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢࡣࡑࢀࡒࢀ 90 km(360 ⛊)㸪30 km(120 ⛊)㸪
6 km(24 ⛊)ࢆィ⟬᱁Ꮚࢱ࢖࣒ࢫࢸࢵࣉ࡜ࡍࡿࢿࢫࢸ࢕ࣥࢢࡀ⾜ࢃࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬
⾲ ,3&& ࡢ➨ ḟ࡜ ḟホ౯ሗ࿌᭩࡟ࡼࡿࢩࢼࣜ࢜࡜ &2 ⃰ᗘ
➨ 5 ḟホ౯ሗ࿌᭩(RCP)*
CO2 ᇶ‽್
(ppm)
RCP
RCP
RCP
RCP
2.6
4.5
6.0
8.5
~490
~650
~850
1370~
➨ 4 ḟホ౯ሗ࿌᭩(SRES)**
B1
B2
A1B
A2
A1Fl
600
800
850
1250
1550
* Moss ࡽ[7]ࡢㄽᩥ࠿ࡽᘬ⏝
** Climate Change 2007 Synthesis Report[11]࠿ࡽᘬ⏝
3.2 Ẽ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱࡢᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝࡢ᳨ウ 49
ᅗ Ẽ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱࡢᑗ᮶ண ᪉ἲࡢᴫᛕᅗ
3.2.2 ᑗ᮶Ẽ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱࡢࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇ
ᮏ❶࡛᥇⏝ࡍࡿࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇ᪉ἲࡣ➨ ❶࡛⢭ᗘཬࡧጇᙜᛶࡀ☜ㄆࡉࢀࡓ㢖ᗘศᕸ࣐ࢵ
ࣆࣥࢢ(Quantile Mapping)ࢆ᥇⏝ࡋ࡚⿵ṇࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ㸬ศᕸ㛵ᩘ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣ࣐࢞ࣥศᕸ࡜⤒
㦂ⓗศᕸࢆ౑⏝ࡋ࡚⌧ᅾẼೃ࡟࠾࠸࡚ࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢࡉࢀࡓࢹ࣮ࢱ(⌧ᅾ್)ࡢ⿵ṇࢆ
⾜ࡗࡓ㸬ྛẼ㇟せ⣲࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⢭ᗘ(R 2 㸪AME㸪RMSE)ࢆ᳨ウࡋ࡚Ẽ㇟せ⣲ẖ࡟⢭ᗘࡀ㧗࠸
ศᕸ㛵ᩘࢆ㑅ࢇ࡛㐺⏝ࡋࡓ㸬ࡉࡽ࡟㸪‵ᗘ࡜㞼㔞࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣELCOM-CAEDYMࣔࢹࣝࡢ
ධຊᙧᘧ࡜ࡋ࡚ࢹ࣮ࢱࡢ⠊ᅖࡀ 0䍺㼤䍺㻝 ࡜࡞ࡿࡓࡵ࣮࣋ࢱศᕸࢆ㏣ຍࡋ᳨࡚ウࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ㸬⾲
࡟ 2002~2010 ᖺࡢᐇ ್࡜⌧ᅾẼೃ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⌧ᅾ್ཬࡧ⿵ṇᚋࡢ⿵ṇ್࡟ࡘ࠸࡚Ẽ㇟
せ⣲ẖࡢ⤫ィ್ࢆ♧ࡋࡓ㸬Ẽ ࡜Ẽᅽ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣ⤒㦂ⓗศᕸࢆ⏝࠸ࡓィ⟬࡛᭱ᑠ್࣭᭱኱
್࣭ᖹᆒ್ࡀྠࡌ࡛࠶ࡾ㸪࣐࢞ࣥศᕸࡼࡾỴᐃಀᩘ(R2 )ࡀ㧗ࡃ㸪ㄗᕪࡀᑠࡉ࠸⤖ᯝࢆᚓࡓ㸬
‵ᗘ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣ 0ӌxӌ1 ࡢ⠊ᅖ࡛ィ⟬ࡉࢀࡿ࣮࣋ࢱศᕸ࡛Ⰻ࠸⢭ᗘࡀࡳࡽࢀࡓ㸬㢼㏿ࡣࡑ
ࢀࡒࢀ 0.131 ࡜ 0.124 ࡢప࠸Ỵᐃಀᩘࡀࡳࡽࢀࡓࡀ㸪ࣆ࣮ࢡ㢼㏿ࡀ཯ᫎࡉࢀࡓ⤒㦂ⓗศᕸ
࡛Ⰻ࠸⢭ᗘࡀᚓࡽࢀࡓ㸬᪥ᑕ㔞ࡢሙྜࡣ㸪࣐࢞ࣥศᕸࡀ⤒㦂ศᕸࡼࡾỴᐃಀᩘࡀ㧗ࡃ㸪
RMSEࡀᑠࡉ࠸ࡀ㸪᪥ኚືࢆ⪃࠼ࡿ࡜ࣆ࣮ࢡ್ࡢᙳ㡪ࡀࡼࡃ୚࠼ࡿ᪥ᑕ㔞ࡣࣆ࣮ࢡ್ࡢ཯
ᫎࡀࡼ࠸⤒㦂ⓗศᕸࢆ⏝࠸ࡓ⿵ṇࡀⰋ࠸࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡓ㸬㞼㔞ࡣ඲⯡ⓗ࡟⤒㦂ⓗศᕸ࡛⢭ᗘ
ࡀ㧗࠿ࡗࡓࡀ㸪0(㞼ࡀ࡞࠸᫬)ᩘࡀ㐪࠺ࡓࡵᑗ᮶ࡢ⿵ṇ࡛ࡣ⿵ṇᚋࡢ᭱ᑠ್ࡀ 0ӌx࡟࡞ࡿࡓ
ࡵ㸪࣮࣋ࢱศᕸࡢ᥇⏝ࡀࡼࡾጇᙜᛶࡀ㧗࠸࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡓ㸬
௨ୖࡢ᳨ウࢆཧ⪃ࡋ࡚Ẽ ࣭㢼㏿࣭᪥ᑕ㔞࣭Ẽᅽ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣ⤒㦂ⓗศᕸ㛵ᩘࢆ᥇⏝ࡋ㸪
‵ᗘࡸ㞼㔞࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣ࣮࣋ࢱศᕸ㛵ᩘࢆ⏝࠸࡚ᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ㢼ྥ௨እࡢẼ㇟ࢹ࣮
50 ➨ 3 ❶ ᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண ࢱࡢ⿵ṇࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ㸬➨ ❶࡛ࡣࡍ࡭࡚ࡢẼ㇟せ⣲࡛࣐࢞ࣥศᕸ㛵ᩘࢆ᥇⏝ࡋࡓࡀ㸪ᮏ❶࡛
ࡣࡼࡾ㛗ᮇ㛫ࡢࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇࢆ⾜࠺࡜⤒㦂ⓗศᕸ㛵ᩘࢆ⏝࠸ࡓ᪉ἲ࡛ࡼࡾ㧗࠸⢭ᗘࡀᚓࡓ㸬
ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇ࡟㛵ࡍࡿ௚ࡢ◊✲[12][13][14]ࢆཧ⪃ࡍࡿ࡜ᑐ㇟ᆅᇦ㸪ᑐ㇟ᮇ㛫࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ᥦ᱌
ࡉࢀࡿ⿵ṇ᪉ἲࡀ␗࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀࡼࡃࡳࡽࢀࡿ㸬
Ẽ㇟せ⣲(㢼ྥࢆ㝖ࡃ 6 㡯┠)࡟ࡘ࠸࡚⿵ṇࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ⤖ᯝࢆ⾲ ࡟♧ࡋࡓ㸬⿵ṇ⤖ᯝࢆ
ࡳࡿ࡜ 9 ᖺ㛫ࡢᖹᆒẼ ࡣ⌧ᅾࡢᐇ ್ࡼࡾᑗ᮶ࡢ⿵ṇ್ࡀ㧗ࡃ㸪᭱ᑠ್࡜᭱኱್ࡶ㧗࠸
⾲ ⌧ᅾẼೃ࡟࠾ࡅࡿࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢศᕸ㛵ᩘ࡟ࡼࡿࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇ⤖ᯝ
R2
AME
RMSE
᭱ᑠ್
᭱኱್
ᖹᆒ್
ᐇ ್
-5.900
36.000
12.598
Ẽ ⌧ᅾ್
-11.041
31.991
12.011
0.925
1.961
2.488
(Υ)
⤒㦂ⓗ
-5
5.900
36.000
12.598
0.926
1.792
2.339
࣐࢞ࣥ
-9.668
31.868
12.598
0.925
1.814
2.356
ᐇ ್
0.000
1.000
0.779
⌧ᅾ್
0.122
1.000
0.699
0.266
0.163
0.212
⤒㦂ⓗ
0.000
1.000
0.779
0.269
0.146
0.204
࣐࢞ࣥ
0.142
1.000
0.767
0.272
0.145
0.197
࣮࣋ࢱ
0.085
1.000
0.775
0.273
0.144
0.198
ᐇ ್
0.000
21.500
2.591
㢼㏿
⌧ᅾ್
0.092
23.662
3.119
0.126
1.971
2.640
(m/s)
⤒㦂ⓗ
0.000
21.500
2.591
0.131
1.680
2.216
࣐࢞ࣥ
0.109
18.036
2.595
0.124
1.708
2.229
ᐇ ್
0.000
1038.889
131.841
᪥ᑕ㔞
⌧ᅾ್
0.000
1070.833
208.599
0.722
88.948
175.818
(W/m2)
⤒㦂ⓗ
0.000
1038.889
131.841
0.703
60.019
126.584
࣐࢞ࣥ
0.000
797.486
139.341
0.723
60.128
119.202
ᐇ ್
924.300
988.700
966.008
Ẽᅽ
⌧ᅾ್
910.706
967.464
946.521
0.419
19.518
20.227
(hPa)
⤒㦂ⓗ
924.300
988.700
966.008
0.421
3.319
5.378
࣐࢞ࣥ
930.578
986.712
966.008
0.419
3.321
5.393
ᐇ ್
0.000
1.000
0.642
⌧ᅾ್
0.000
1.000
0.304
0.309
0.370
0.454
⤒㦂ⓗ
0.000
1.000
0.642
0.369
0.214
0.300
࣐࢞ࣥ
0.000
1.000
0.540
0.367
0.250
0.343
࣮࣋ࢱ
0.000
1.000
0.597
0.365
0.238
0.338
‵ᗘ
(0-1)
㞼㔞
(0-1)
㸫
㸫
㸫
㸫
㸫
㸫
3.2 Ẽ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱࡢᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝࡢ᳨ウ 51
⤖ᯝࡀᚓࡽࢀࡓ㸬‵ᗘ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣᐇ ್(0.779)ࡼࡾᑗ᮶ࡢ⿵ṇ್(0.762)ࡀ 0.017 ῶᑡࡋ㸪
㢼㏿ࡣ⌧ᅾࡼࡾᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿᙅࡃ࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬᪥ᑕ㔞࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣᑗ᮶࡟ࣆ࣮ࢡ
್ࡣపࡃ࡞ࡿࡀ㸪ᖹᆒ࡜ࡋ࡚ࡣ 3.5 W/m2 㧗ࡃ࡞ࡾ㸪Ẽᅽࡶ⌧ᅾࡼࡾ㧗ࡃ࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉ
ࢀࡓ㸬㞼㔞ࡣᑗ᮶࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡣ 0.58 ࡜࡞ࡾ⌧ᅾ(0.64)ࡼࡾῶᑡࡍࡿ࡜ண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬
⾲ ᑗ᮶Ẽೃ~ ࡢ ᖺ㛫࡟࠾ࡅࡿࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇ⤖ᯝ
Ẽ (Υ)
‵ᗘ
(0-1)
㢼㏿
(m/s)
᪥ᑕ㔞
(W/m2)
Ẽᅽ
(hPa)
㞼㔞
(0-1)
᭱ᑠ್
᭱኱್
ᖹᆒ್
ᐇ ್
-5.900
36.000
12.598
ᑗ᮶್
-5.437
35.862
14.982
⿵ṇ್
-3.100
39.922
15.515
ᐇ ್
0.000
1.000
0.779
ᑗ᮶್
0.141
1.000
0.686
⿵ṇ್
0.104
1.000
0.762
ᐇ ್
0.000
21.500
2.591
ᑗ᮶್
0.097
22.296
3.062
⿵ṇ್
0.000
20.692
2.531
ᐇ ್
0.000
1038.889
131.841
ᑗ᮶್
0.000
1059.167
212.514
⿵ṇ್
0.000
1016.359
135.270
ᐇ ್
924.300
988.700
966.008
ᑗ᮶್
914.055
971.101
947.528
⿵ṇ್
932.962
992.417
967.032
ᐇ ್
0.000
1.000
0.642
ᑗ᮶್
0.000
1.000
0.285
⿵ṇ್
0.000
1.000
0.584
3.2.3 ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿẼೃኚືࣃࢱ࣮ࣥࡢ᳨ウ
(1) ᖺኚືࢆ⪃៖ࡋࡓ᳨ウ
⌧ᅾẼೃ࡜ࡋ࡚ࡢẚ㍑ᮇ㛫࡛࠶ࡿ 2002~2010 ᖺࡢࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇ್(௨ୗ㸪
ࠕ⌧ᅾ್ࠖ࡜࿧
ࡪ)㸪ᑗ᮶ண ᮇ㛫࡛࠶ࡿ 2062~2070 ᖺࡢࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇ್(௨ୗ㸪ࠕᑗ᮶್ࠖ࡜࿧ࡪ)ࡢࡑࢀ
52 ➨ 3 ❶ ᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண ࡒࢀ 9 ᖺ㛫ࡢẖᖺࡢᖹᆒ್ࢆᅗ ࡟♧ࡋࡓ㸬Ẽ ࢆࡳࡿ࡜ 9 ᖺ㛫࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⌧ᅾ್ࡢᖹᆒ
Ẽ ࡣ 12.6Υ㸪ᑗ᮶್ࡣ 15.5Υ࡜࡞ࡾ㸪ᑗ᮶ࡣ⌧ᅾࡼࡾ 2.9Υ㧗࠸ࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬ࡲ
ࡓ㸪⌧ᅾࡢᖹᆒẼ ࡣ 12.0~13.3Υࡢ⠊ᅖ࡛࠶ࡾ㸪2 ᖺ┠(2003 ᖺ)ࡀ 12.0Υ୍࡛␒పࡃ㸪3
ᖺ┠(2004 ᖺ)ࡀ 13.3Υ࡜࡞ࡾ㸪9 ᖺ㛫࡛᭱ࡶ㧗࠸ᖺ࡛࠶ࡗࡓ㸬࡞࠾㸪ᑗ᮶ࡢᖹᆒẼ ࡣ
15.0~16.1Υࡢ⠊ᅖ࡛࠶ࡾ㸪3 ᖺ┠࡜ 5 ᖺ┠(2064 ᖺ࡜ 2066 ᖺ)ࡀ 14.1Υ࡛᭱ࡶపࡃ㸪6 ᖺ
┠࡜ 7 ᖺ(2067 ᖺ 2068 ᖺ)ࡀ 16.1Υ࡜࡞ࡾ㸪᭱ࡶ㧗࠸ഴྥࡀࡳࡽࢀࡓ㸬‵ᗘࡢ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶
ࡢ 9 ᖺ㛫ࡢᖹᆒ್(⠊ᅖ)ࡣࡑࢀࡒࢀ 77.5%(75.9~80.6%)㸪76.2%(74.5~80.0%)࡜࡞ࡾ㸪ᑗ᮶
ࡣ⌧ᅾࡼࡾ 1.6%(0.8~1.8%)⛬ᗘῶᑡࡍࡿࣃࢱ࣮ࣥࡀᚓࡽࢀ㸪⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶ࡢ᭱኱್ࢆẚ㍑ࡍ
ࢀࡤ⌧ᅾࡣ 2 ᖺ┠㸪ᑗ᮶ࡣ 5 ᖺ┠ࡀ㧗࠸ࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬㢼㏿ࡣ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡑ
ࢀࡒࢀ 2.6 m/s(2.5~2.7 m/s)㸪2.5 m/s(2.4~2.7 m/s)࡛࠶ࡾ㸪ᑗ᮶ࡣ⌧ᅾࡼࡾ 2.6%ቑຍࡋࡓ
ࡀ 㸪 ᖺ ࡟ ࡼ ࡾ ≉ ู ࡟ ኱ ࡁ ࡞ ᖺ ࡣ ࡳ ࡽ ࢀ ࡞ ࠿ ࡗ ࡓ 㸬 ᪥ ᑕ 㔞 ࡢ ⌧ ᅾ ್ ( ⠊ ᅖ ) ࡣ 131.8
W/m 2(123.6~138.0 W/m2 )㸪ᑗ᮶್(⠊ᅖ)ࡣ 135.3 W/m 2(130.3~140.1 W/m2 )࡜࡞ࡾ㸪⌧ᅾ
࡜ẚ࡭࡚ 3.5 W/m2 ᑗ᮶࡟㧗ࡃ࡞ࡿ⤖ᯝ࡜࡞ࡗࡓ㸬Ẽᅽࡣ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶ࡢ࠾࠸࡚኱ࡁ࡞ᕪ࡜ኚ
ືࡀࡳࡽࢀ࡞࠿ࡗࡓ㸬㞼㔞࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ᑗ᮶ࡣ⌧ᅾࡼࡾపࡃ㸪ࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢᖹᆒࡣ⣙ 6.0 ࡜⣙ 5.8
⛬ᗘ࡛࠶ࡗࡓ㸬
(2) ᭶ኚືࢆ⪃៖ࡋࡓ᳨ウ
ண ィ⟬ᮇ㛫࡛࠶ࡿ 9 ᖺ㛫ࡢ᭶ࡈ࡜ࡢᖹᆒ್࡟㛵ࡍࡿẚ㍑⤖ᯝࢆᅗ ࡟♧ࡋࡓ㸬Ẽ ࡣ㸪ࡍ࡭࡚ࡢ᭶࡛ᑗ᮶ࡢ᪉ࡀ㧗࠿ࡗࡓ㸬Ꮨ⠇ẖ(᫓3~5 ᭶㸪ኟ6~8 ᭶㸪⛅9~11 ᭶㸪෤12~2
᭶)࡟ẚ㍑ࡍࡿ࡜㸪᫓࡟࠾࠸࡚⌧ᅾࡢᖹᆒẼ ࡣ 10.6Υ㸪ᑗ᮶ࡣ 13.2Υ㸪ኟ࡟࠾࠸࡚⌧ᅾ
࡜ᑗ᮶ࡢᖹᆒẼ ࡣࡑࢀࡒࢀ 21.9Υ㸪24.8Υ㸪⛅ࡣࡑࢀࡒࢀ 14.8Υ㸪18.2Υ㸪෤ࡣࡑࢀࡒ
ࢀ 3.0Υ㸪5.5Υ࡜࡞ࡾ㸪ᑗ᮶ࡣ⌧ᅾࡼࡾ᫓ࡣ 2.6Υ㸪ኟࡣ 2.9Υ㸪⛅ࡣ 3.4Υ㸪෤ࡣ 2.5Υ࡜
࡞ࡾ㸪⛅࡟࠾ࡅࡿኚ໬㔞ࡀ᭱ࡶ኱ࡁࡃ㸪᫓࡜෤࡟ᑠࡉ࠸ࡇ࡜ࡀ☜ㄆࡉࢀࡓ㸬‵ᗘࡢẚ㍑⤖
ᯝࢆࡳࡿ࡜⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡜ࡶ࡟㸪7 ᭶࡟᭱ࡶ㧗ࡃ 3 ᭶࡟పࡃ࡞ࡾ㸪ኟ(6~8 ᭶)࡜⛅(9~11 ᭶)
࡟⌧ᅾࡣ 86.1%㸪81.7%㸪ᑗ᮶ࡣ 85.3%㸪82.2%࡟࡞ࡗ࡚᫓(⌧ᅾ71.8%㸪ᑗ᮶70.2%)࡜
෤(⌧ᅾ67.4%㸪ᑗ᮶69.8%)ࡼࡾᖹᆒ⣙ 10%๓ᚋ㧗ࡃ࡞ࡾ㸪ኟ࡜⛅ࡣ㝆㞵ࡢᙳ㡪࡛㧗ࡃ࡞
ࡗࡓ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬㢼㏿ࡣ‵ᗘࡢኚື࡜཯ᑐഴྥࡀࡳࡽࢀ㸪᫓࡛⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶ࡢᖹᆒ㢼㏿ࡣ
ࡑࢀࡒࢀ 3.0 m/s㸪3.1 m/s㸪෤ࡣ⌧ᅾ࡛ 2.9 m/s㸪ᑗ᮶࡛ 2.9 m/s࡜࡞ࡾ㸪ኟ࡜⛅ࡣ⌧ᅾ࡜
ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿࡑࢀࡒࢀ 2.1~2.2 m/sࡢ⠊ᅖ࡛࠶ࡗࡓ㸬᪥ᑕ㔞ࡣ᭶ࡈ࡜ࡢኚືࢆࡳࡿ࡜㸪⌧ᅾ
ࡣ 59~194 W/m 2㸪ᑗ᮶ࡣ 56~202 W/m 2ࡢ⠊ᅖ࡛࠶ࡾ㸪
ᑗ᮶࡟ࡣ⌧ᅾࡼࡾ෤(⌧ᅾ78.8 W/m2 㸪
ᑗ᮶77.9 W/m 2)ࡣపࡃ࡚㸪᫓(⌧ᅾ171.9 W/m2 㸪ᑗ᮶179.2 W/m 2)㸪ኟ(⌧ᅾ181.0 W/m2 㸪
ᑗ᮶186.5 W/m 2)㸪⛅(⌧ᅾ95.1 W/m2 㸪ᑗ᮶96.9 W/m2 )࡟ࡣ㧗࠸ࣃࢱ࣮ࣥࡀᚓࡽࢀࡓ㸬
Ẽᅽࡣ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶ࡢ኱ࡁ࡞᭶ẖࡢኚ໬ࡣࡳࡽࢀ࡞ࡃ㸪᭶ᖹᆒẼᅽࡣ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟ 960~970
hPaࡢ⠊ᅖᖜࡀࡳࡽࢀࡓ㸬㞼㔞ࡣ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶୧᪉࡛ 1 ᭶࠿ࡽᚎࠎ࡟ቑຍࡋ࡚ 7 ᭶࡟᭱኱್
࡜࡞ࡾ㸪⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡜ࡶ࡟ኟ㸼⛅㸼᫓㸼෤ࡢ㡰࡛㧗ࡃ࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬
3.2 Ẽ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱࡢᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝࡢ᳨ウ 53
ᅗ ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿẼ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱࡢᖺኚື ᅗ ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿẼ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱࡢ᭶ኚື 54 ➨ 3 ❶ ᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண 3.3 ὶฟࢹ࣮ࢱࡢᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝࡢ᳨ウ
3.3.1 ᑗ᮶ὶฟண ࡢᴫせ
඲⌫Ẽೃࣔࢹࣝ࡟ࡼࡿ ᬮ໬ᐇ㦂⤖ᯝࢆ㸪WRF ࢆ฼⏝ࡋࡓຊᏛⓗࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ࡟
ࡼࡗ࡚㡿ᇦࢫࢣ࣮ࣝࡢẼ㇟᝟ሗ࡬ኚ᥮ࡉࢀࡓ㞵㔞ࢆࡶ࡜࡟㸪௨ୗ࡟♧ࡍศᕸᆺὶฟࣔࢹࣝ
࡟ࡼࡿὶฟィ⟬࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ᚓࡽࢀࡓὶ㔞ࢆࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡟ࡼࡾ⌧ᅾ࣭ᑗ᮶Ẽೃࡢࡶ
࡜࡛ࡢᾆᒣࢲ࣒࡟࠾ࡅࡿὶධ㔞ࡢ᥎ᐃࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ㸬
ࡲࡎ㸪ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇ࡟⏝࠸ࡿࢲ࣒ὶධ㔞ࡣὶᇦ㝆Ỉ㔞ࢆ㸪ศᕸᆺὶฟࣔࢹࣝ
YHyM/BTOPMC[15][16]࡟ධຊࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡛㸪ᾆᒣࢲ࣒ὶධ㔞ࢆྵࡴⲨᕝὶᇦ඲యࡢἙᕝὶ
㔞ࡢᑗ᮶ண ࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ⤖ᯝࢆ᥇⏝ࡋࡓ㸬ᮏ◊✲࡛ࡣ㸪Ⲩᕝ඲ὶᇦࢆ⣙ 450m(ļࡢゎീᗘ
࡛ࣔࢹࣝ໬ࡍࡿ࡜࡜ࡶ࡟㸪࢔࣓ࢲࢫほ 㝆Ỉ㔞ࢆධຊ࡜ࡋࡓᐤᒃᆅⅬὶᇦࡢ㝆㞵ὶฟゎᯒ
࡟ᑐࡋ࡚⮬ື᭱㐺໬ᡭἲ(SCE-UA)[17]ࢆ㐺⏝ࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡛ὶฟࣔࢹࣝࡢࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱྠᐃࡀ
⾜ࢃࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ(ᅗ [18])㸬࡞࠾㸪2001~2010 ᖺࢆᑐ㇟࡟ྠᐃࡉࢀࡓࣔࢹࣝ࡟ࡼࡿᾆᒣࢲ࣒
ὶධ㔞᥎ᐃ್࡜ᐇ ್ࡢẚ㍑ࢆ⾜࠸㸪ὶධ㔞ࡢࣔࢹࣝ᥎ᐃ್ࡢጇᙜᛶ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚☜ㄆࡉࢀ࡚
࠸ࡿ㸬ࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡟ࡋ࡚ྠᐃࡉࢀࡓศᕸᆺὶฟࣔࢹࣝ࡟㸪ࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ࡛ᚓࡽࢀࡓ㝆
Ỉ᝟ሗࢆ୚࠼ࡿࡇ࡜࡛㸪⌧ᅾẼೃ(2001~2010 ᖺ)ཬࡧᑗ᮶Ẽೃ(2061~2070 ᖺ)࡟ᑐᛂࡋࡓ
ᾆᒣࢲ࣒ὶධ㔞ࡢ᥎ᐃ್ࢆồࡵ㸪᭱ึࡢ 1 ᖺࡣຓ㉮ᮇ㛫࡜ࡋ࡚ᮏ◊✲࡛ࡣ⌧ᅾẼೃ࡜ᑗ᮶
Ẽೃࡣࡑࢀࡒࢀ 9 ᖺ㛫(⌧ᅾ2002~2010 ᖺ㸪
ᑗ᮶2062~2070 ᖺ)ࡢࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸ࡓ(ᅗ )㸬
࡞࠾㸪ᮏ◊✲࡛⏝࠸ࡿண ್࡛ࡣ㸪㝆Ỉ㔞࡜࠸ࡗࡓࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ⤖ᯝ࡟ᑐࡍࡿࣂ࢖
࢔ࢫ⿵ṇ➼ࡢฎ⌮ࡣ⾜ࢃࡎ࡟㸪⟬ᐃࡉࢀࡓᾆᒣࢲ࣒࡬ࡢὶධ㔞࡟ࡘ࠸࡚⤒㦂ⓗศᕸ㛵ᩘࢆ
⏝࠸ࡓࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ㸬
ᅗ ὶฟィ⟬࡟࠾ࡅࡿ୺せẚ㍑ᆅⅬ>@
3.3 ὶฟࢹ࣮ࢱࡢᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝࡢ᳨ウ 55
ᅗ ὶฟࢹ࣮ࢱࡢᑗ᮶ண ᪉ἲࡢᴫᛕᅗ
3.3.2 ᑗ᮶ὶฟࢹ࣮ࢱࡢࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇ
ὶฟࢹ࣮ࢱࡣ㢖ᗘศᕸ࣐ࢵࣆࣥࢢࢆ⏝࠸࡚ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇࢆ⾜࠸㸪ศᕸ㛵ᩘ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣ⤒
㦂ⓗศᕸ㛵ᩘࢆ᥇⏝ࡋࡓ㸬ࡇࢀࡣẼ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ᪥ᑕ㔞ࡢ⿵ṇ࡜ྠࡌ⌮⏤࡛ࣆ࣮ࢡ್
ࡢ෌⌧ࢆ㔜せどࡋࡓ࠿ࡽ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ᐇ ್࡜ẚ࡭ࡿ࡜⿵ṇᚋࡢ⌧ᅾ್ࡣ᭱ᑠ್㸪᭱኱್ࡸᖹ
ᆒ್࡜ྠࡌ࡟࡞ࡾ㸪ᑗ᮶್ࡣ 0.1~311.9 m 3/sࡢ⠊ᅖ㸪ィ⟬ᮇ㛫ࡢᖹᆒ್ࡣ 2.4 m 3/s࡜࡞ࡾ㸪
᭱኱್ࡣᐇ ್ࡼࡾ⣙ 0.5 m3/sప࠸ࡀ㸪ᖹᆒ࡜ࡋ࡚ࡣ 0.4 m3/s⛬ᗘቑຍࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉ
ࢀࡓ(⾲ )㸬
⾲ ὶฟࢹ࣮ࢱ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⌧ᅾ್࡜ᑗ᮶್࡟⿵ṇ⤖ᯝ
༢఩
m3/s
⌧ᅾ್
ᑗ᮶್
ᐇ ್
⿵ṇ๓
⿵ṇᚋ
⿵ṇ๓
⿵ṇᚋ
᭱ᑠ್
0.1
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
᭱኱್
312.4
145.7
312.4
147.4
311.9
ᖹᆒ್
2.0
1.6
2.0
1.9
2.4
56 ➨ 3 ❶ ᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண 3.3.3 ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿὶฟኚືࣃࢱ࣮ࣥࡢ᳨ウ
⿵ṇࡉࢀࡓ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶ὶฟࢹ࣮ࢱࡢᖺᖹᆒὶ㔞࡜᭶ᖹᆒὶ㔞ࢆᅗ ࡟♧ࡋࡓ㸬⌧ᅾ࡟
࠾ࡅࡿ 9 ᖺᖹᆒὶ㔞ࡣ 2.0 m3/s࡛࠶ࡿࡀ㸪2003 ᖺ㸪2007 ᖺ㸪2010 ᖺ┠ࡣ 9 ᖺ㛫ࡢᖹᆒὶ
㔞ࢆ㉸࠼㸪ὥỈࡢᙳ㡪࡟ࡼࡿࡶࡢ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡓ㸬ᑗ᮶ࡣ 2066 ᖺ࡜ 2070 ᖺ࡟ᑗ᮶ࡢᖹᆒὶ
㔞(2.4 m3/s)ࡼࡾࡑࢀࡒࢀ 2.2 m3/s㸪2.3 m3/sከ࠸ࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪᭶ࡈ࡜ࡢኚ໬
ࢆࡳࡿ࡜⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶୧᪉㸪1~6 ᭶࡜ 12 ᭶ࡣᖺᖹᆒ௨ୗࡢὶ㔞࡜࡞ࡾ㸪11 ᭶ࡣ࡯ࡰᖹᆒὶ
㔞࡜ྠࡌ࡛࠶ࡿࡀ㸪7~10 ᭶࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡣᖺᖹᆒὶ㔞ࢆୖᅇࡿࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬≉࡟ 8 ᭶ࡣ
⌧ᅾ(2.5 m3/s)ࡼࡾᑗ᮶(5.4 m3/s)࡟ 2.9 m3/s⛬ᗘ㧗ࡃ㸪⌧ᅾࡼࡾฟỈࡢつᶍࡸ㢖ᗘࡀቑຍ
ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿฟỈࡢつᶍ࡜㢖ᗘࢆㄪ࡭ࡿࡓࡵ࡟㸪ᾆᒣࢲ࣒
ࡢὥỈὶ㔞࡛࠶ࡿ 60 m 3/s࡜ 100 m3/s࡟ᑐࡋ࡚ホ౯ࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ㸬
ࡲࡎ㸪
ὥỈὶ㔞࡛࠶ࡿ 60 m3/s
ࢆ㉸࠼ࡿὥỈࡣ㸪9 ᖺ㛫࡛⌧ᅾࡣ 12 ᅇ㸪ᑗ᮶࡟ࡣ 18 ᅇ㉳ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ὶ
㔞 100 m3/s௨ୖࡢὥỈ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚⌧ᅾࡣ 5 ᅇ㸪ᑗ᮶ࡣ 13 ᅇࡀண ࡉࢀ㸪つᶍࡀ኱ࡁ࡞ฟỈ
ᩘࡀቑ࠼ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟ࡉࢀࡓ(ᅗ )㸬⌧ᅾࡢ 9 ᖺᖹᆒ(Q 355 13.6 m3/d(ᅗ ))ࢆୗᅇ
ࡿ᪥ᩘࡣ㸪9 ᖺ㛫ࡢྜィ࡛⌧ᅾࡣ 97 ᪥㸪ᑗ᮶(ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿῬỈὶ㔞Q 355 12.2 m3/d)
ᅗ ィ⟬ᮇ㛫࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⌧ᅾ್࣭ᑗ᮶್ࡢᖺᖹᆒὶ㔞ୖ࡜᭶ᖹᆒὶ㔞ୗ
3.3 ὶฟࢹ࣮ࢱࡢᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝࡢ᳨ウ 57
ࡣ 186 ᪥࡜࡞ࡾ㸪89 ᪥㛫㛗ࡃ࡞ࡾ㸪ᑗ᮶࡟ࡣῬỈࡢ㢖ᗘࡶ㧗ࡃ࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬
ᅗ ィ⟬ᮇ㛫࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⌧ᅾ್࣭ᑗ᮶್ࡢ᫬㛫ὶ㔞
ᅗ ィ⟬ᮇ㛫࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⌧ᅾ್࣭ᑗ᮶್ࡢ ᖺᖹᆒࡢὶἣ᭤⥺
58 ➨ 3 ❶ ᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண 3.4 ḟඖ†἟⏕ែ⣔ࣔࢹࣝ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண 3.4.1 ࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢ㐠⏝࣮ࣝࣝ࡟ࡼࡿᨺὶ㔞ࡢタᐃ࡜ 6:6 ࡢ㐠⏝
ᾆᒣࢲ࣒࡟࠾ࡅࡿᑗ᮶ண ࡢࡓࡵ࡟ᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࡢᇶᮏⓗ࡞㐠⏝࣮ࣝࣝ(ᅗ )ࢆ㐺⏝ࡋ࡚
ᨺὶ㔞࡜ࣂ࢖ࣃࢫ(⃮Ỉᑐ⟇࡜ࡋ࡚ୖὶ࠿ࡽࡢΎỈࢆୗὶ࡬ࣂ࢖ࣃࢫࡍࡿࡼ࠺࡟タᐃ)㐠⏝
㔞ࢆỴࡵࡓ㸬ᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࡣ 1 ᭶ 1 ᪥࠿ࡽ 4 ᭶ 30 ᪥ࡲ࡛ࡣᖹᖖ᫬᭱㧗㈓Ỉ఩(EL. 393.3 m)ࡲ
࡛Ỉࢆ⁀ࡵ(ᨺὶ㔞ࡣ⣙ 0.72 m 3/s୍࡛ᐃ)㸪ࡑࢀ௨ᚋ࠿ࡽỈ఩ࡀ 7 ᭶ 1 ᪥ࡲ࡛℺₅⏝Ỉࢆᨺ
ὶࡉࡏEL. 372.0 m(ὥỈ㈓␃‽ഛỈ఩)࡟࡞ࡿࡼ࠺࡟ᨺὶ㔞ࢆタᐃࡋࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪9 ᭶ 30 ᪥
ࡲ࡛ࡣEL. 372.0 mࢆ⥔ᣢ(ὶධ㔞=ᨺὶ㔞)ࡋ㸪12 ᭶ 31 ᪥ࡲ࡛ࡣ 0.72 m3/sࡢ୍ᐃ㔞ࢆᨺὶ
ࡋ࡚ᖹᖖ᫬᭱㧗㈓Ỉ఩ࡲ࡛Ỉࢆ࣮࢟ࣉࡍࡿᇶᮏ࣮࡛ࣝࣝ㐠⏝ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬ࡋ࠿ࡋ࡞ࡀࡽ㸪
ࡑࡢ᫬࡟Ỉ఩ࡀEL. 393.3 m௨ୖ࡟࡞ࢀࡤᨺὶ㔞ࢆὶධ㔞࡜ྠࡌ࡜ࡋ㸪ࡑࡢࡲࡲỈ఩ࡀ⥔ᣢ
ࡉࢀࡿࡼ࠺࡟タᐃࡋࡓ㸬
ィ⟬ࡢࡓࡵࡢึᮇỈ఩ࡣ 2002~2010 ᖺࡢᐇ ᖹᆒỈ఩(EL. 376.35
m)࡜ࡋࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ึᖺᗘࡢᨺὶ㔞࡟క࠺Ỉ఩ኚືࢆồࡵ㸪᭱⤊᫬ࡢ 12 ᭶ 31 ᪥ 24 ᫬ࡢỈ
఩ࢆ 2 ᖺ┠ࡢึᮇỈ఩࡜ࡋ㸪9 ᖺ㛫ࡲ࡛⧞ࡾ㏉ࡋࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢᨺὶ㔞ࡢタᐃࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪
㑅ᢥྲྀỈࢤ࣮ࢺࡣ᭱኱ 12.0 m 3/sࡢᨺὶࡀ࡛ࡁࡿࡓࡵ㸪12.0 m 3/sࢆ㉸࠼ࡿᨺὶ㔞(ᨺὶ㔞㸫
12 m 3/s)࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣ㏻⏝ὥỈྤࡁ࠿ࡽᨺὶࡉࢀࡿࡼ࠺࡟タᐃࡋࡓ㸬ࡉࡽ࡟㸪ࣂ࢖ࣃࢫࡢ㐠
⏝ࡣL-Qᘧ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚⟬ᐃࡉࢀࡓᾆᒣᕝࡢὶධ⃮ᗘࡀ 10 ᗘ(SSࡣ 7.8 mg/L┦ᙜ)௨ୗࡢሙྜ
࡟ὶධ㔞ࡢ 1/3(ᐇ 㐠⏝ࡉࢀࡓ 2007~2010 ᖺࡢᖹᆒ)ࢆᨺὶࡍࡿࡼ࠺࡟タᐃࡋࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪
㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛࡢྲྀỈỈ῝ࡣ㸪ᐇ⦼ࡢᇶᮏ࡛࠶ࡿ 2~4 mࡢᖖ᫬⾲ᒙྲྀỈ࡜ࡋࡓ㸬
ᅗ ᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࡢ㐠⏝࣮ࣝࣝ࡟ࡼࡿᨺὶ㔞タᐃ࡟క࠺Ỉ఩ኚື
3.4 ḟඖ†἟⏕ែ⣔ࣔࢹࣝ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண 59
3.4.2 ෌⌧ィ⟬ཬࡧࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱࡢྠᐃ
(1) ෌⌧ィ⟬ࣔࢹࣝࡢᵓ⠏
ᑗ᮶ண ࡢࡓࡵࡢ෌⌧ィ⟬࡜ࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱࡢྠᐃࡣ 2002~2010 ᖺࡢ 9 ᖺ㛫ࡢᐇ ್ࢆ⏝࠸
࡚ィ⟬ࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ㸬➨ ❶࡟㏙࡭ࡓࡼ࠺࡟ὶධ㔞㸪ᨺὶ㔞㸪ὶධỈ 㸪Ẽ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱ㸪ὶධSS㸪
㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛࡢྲྀỈỈ῝ࡸࣂ࢖ࣃࢫ㐠⏝㔞(2007 ᖺࡢ 4 ᭶࠿ࡽ㛤ጞ)࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣⲨᕝࢲ࣒⥲
ྜ⟶⌮ᡤ࡛ ᐃࡉࢀࡓࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ᥇⏝ࡋ㸪ὶධỈ㉁⃰ᗘ࡟ᑐࡋ࡚ࡣ㸪ᅗ ࡛♧ࡋࡓL-Qᘧ
࠿ࡽ⟬ฟࡋࡓ 1 ᫬㛫ẖࡢࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸ࡓ㸬L-Qᘧ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚⟬ᐃࡉࢀࡓྛ㡯┠࡜ᐃᮇㄪᰝ࡟
ࡼࡿᐇ ್࡜ࡢẚ㍑ࢆᅗ ~ᅗ ࡟♧ࡋࡓ㸬NH 4 ࡣฟỈ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ቑຍࡍࡿ㧗⃰ᗘࡣ⟬
ฟࡀ࡛ࡁ࡞࠿ࡗࡓࡀ㸪ᖹᆒⓗ࡞⃰ᗘࡣᴫࡡィ⟬࡛ࡁ࡚㸪NO 3 ࡜TN࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣᐇ ್࡜ࡢẚ
㍑࡛㧗࠸⢭ᗘࡀᚓࡽࢀࡓ㸬ࡉࡽ࡟㸪PO 4 ࡜TPࡶᐇ ್ࡢ᫬⣔ิኚ໬ࢆࡼࡃ෌⌧࡛ࡁ࡚࠸ࡓ
࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬Chl.aࡢሙྜࡣNH 4 ࡜ྠࡌࡼ࠺࡟㧗⃰ᗘࡢ⟬ฟࡣ࡛ࡁ࡞࠿ࡗࡓࡀ㸪9 ᖺ㛫ࡢ
ᐇ ್ࡢ᫬⣔ิኚ໬ࢆࡳࡿ࡜ᴫࡡ෌⌧ࡣ࡛ࡁࡓ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬Chl.aィ⟬ࡢࡓࡵࡢタᐃࡣ⸛
⸴㢮(CYANO)㸪⌛⸴㢮(FDIAT)㸪⥳⸴㢮(CHLOR)㸪㠴ẟ⸴㢮(CRYPT)࡟ศࡅ࡚ࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢ
ẚ⋡ࢆ⪃៖ࡋ࡚ὶධ⸴㢮⃰ᗘࢆ⟬ฟࡋࡓ㸬ィ⟬࡛⏝࠸ࡓ 4 ✀㢮ࡢὶධ⸴㢮⃰ᗘࡢẚ⋡ࡣᇶ
‽Ⅼ࡛ ᐃࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ᭶ 1 ᅇࡢᐃᮇㄪᰝ⤖ᯝཧ⪃࡟ 9 ᖺ㛫ࡢ⥲ࢭࣝᩘ࡜ࢭࣝᙜࡾࡢ㔜ࡉࢆ
⏝࠸࡚ồࡵࡓ(⾲ )㸬඲యⓗ࡟ࡣࢭࣝᙜࡾ㔜ࡉࡀ㔜ࡓ࠸㠴ẟ⸴㢮࡜⥳⸴㢮ࡢẚ⋡ࡀ㧗ࡃ㸪
⸛⸴㢮ࡣ 7~10 ᭶࡟ほᐹࡉࢀࡿࣃࢱ࣮ࣥࡀࡳࡽࢀࡓ㸬
⾲ &KOD ࡢィ⟬࡛᥇⏝ࡋࡓ⸴㢮✀ẖࡢ᭶ẖࡢẚ⋡
CYANO
(⸛⸴㢮)
FDIAT
(⌛⸴㢮)
CHLOR
(⥳⸴㢮)
CRYPT
(㠴ẟ⸴㢮)
1 ᭶㻌
2 ᭶㻌
3 ᭶㻌
4 ᭶㻌
5 ᭶㻌
6 ᭶㻌
7 ᭶㻌
8 ᭶㻌
9 ᭶㻌 10 ᭶㻌 11 ᭶㻌 12 ᭶㻌
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.02
0.05
0.09
0.02
0.00
0.00
0.16
0.13
0.31
0.28
0.16
0.06
0.04
0.15
0.05
0.17
0.13
0.16
0.19
0.19
0.17
0.26
0.27
0.26
0.46
0.48
0.63
0.47
0.28
0.13
0.65
0.68
0.52
0.46
0.57
0.68
0.49
0.32
0.24
0.34
0.60
0.71
60 ➨ 3 ❶ ᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண ᅗ /4 ᘧ࡟ࡼࡿ⟬ᐃࡉࢀࡓ 1+ ࣭12 ࣭71 ࡢẚ㍑⤖ᯝ
3.4 ḟඖ†἟⏕ែ⣔ࣔࢹࣝ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண 61
ᅗ /4 ᘧ࡟ࡼࡿ⟬ᐃࡉࢀࡓ 32 ࣭73࣭&KOD ࡢẚ㍑⤖ᯝ
62 ➨ 3 ❶ ᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝ࡟࠾ࡅࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண (2) ᇶ‽Ⅼ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ෌⌧ィ⟬ࡢ⤖ᯝ
෌⌧ィ⟬⤖ᯝࡘ࠸࡚ࡣᇶ‽Ⅼࡢ⾲ᒙ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ᭶ 1 ᅇࡢᐃᮇㄪᰝ᫬ࡢᐇ ್⏝࠸࡚ẚ㍑ࢆ⾜
࠸㸪ࡑࡢ⢭ᗘཬࡧ L-Q ᘧ࠿ࡽồࡵࡓὶධỈ㉁࡜ྠᐃࡉࢀࡓࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱࡢጇᙜᛶࢆ☜ㄆࡋࡓ㸬
(a)Ỉ఩ࡢẚ㍑ࢆ㏻ࡌࡓỈ཰ᨭࡢ᳨ウ
2002~2010 ᖺ࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ఩࡟ẚ㍑⤖ᯝࢆᅗ ࡟♧ࡋࡓ㸬ィ⟬ࡉࢀࡓỈ఩ࡣᐇ Ỉ఩
࡜ࡢẚ㍑࡛AMEࡣ 0.357 m㸪RMSEࡣ 0.455 m࡜R2 ࡣ 0.997 ࡜࡞ࡾ㸪㧗࠸⢭ᗘࡀ☜ㄆࡉࢀ
ࡓ㸬
(b)Ỉ ࡢ෌⌧ィ⟬⤖ᯝ
ࢲ࣒ᇶ‽Ⅼࡢ⾲ᒙ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ᭶ 1 ᅇࡢᐃᮇㄪᰝ᫬ࡢᐇ Ỉ ⠊ᅖ(ᖹᆒ±ᶆ‽೫ᕪ)ࡣ
5.0~29.6Υ(15.6±7.0Υ)ࡢ⠊ᅖ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪෌⌧ィ⟬ࡉࢀࡓ 1 ᫬㛫㛫㝸ࡢ⾲ᒙỈ ⠊ᅖ(ᖹ
ᆒ±ᶆ‽೫ᕪ)ࡣ 5.2~30.7Υ(15.3±7.0Υ)ࡢ⠊ᅖ࡛࠶ࡗࡓ㸬ᐇ Ỉ ࡼࡾ᭱పỈ ࡣ 0.2Υ㸪
᭱㧗Ỉ ࡣ 1.1Υ㧗ࡃィ⟬ࡉࢀࡓࡀ㸪ᐇ Ỉ ࡣ᭶ 1 ᅇࡢ㝈ᐃᛶࢆ⪃៖ࡍࡿ࡜෌⌧ィ⟬ࡢ
⢭ᗘࡀ㧗࠸࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ(ᅗ ୖ)㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ᐃᮇㄪᰝࡢᐇ Ỉ ࡜ẚ㍑ࡍࡿ࡜R2ࡣ 0.973㸪
AMEࡣ 0.892Υ࡜RMSEࡣ 1.248Υࡢ⤫ィ್ࡀᚓࡽࢀࡓ(⾲ )㸬ࡉࡽ࡟㸪ࣔࢹ࡛ࣝ⏝࠸ࡓ
Ỉ 㛵ಀࡢࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱࢆ⾲ ࡟♧ࡋࡓ㸬G
(c)⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲ࡢ෌⌧ィ⟬⤖ᯝ
⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡶィ⟬ᮇ㛫ࡢ᫬⣔ิኚ໬ࢆࡼࡃ෌⌧࡛ࡁ࡚࠾ࡾ㸪෌⌧ࡉࢀࡓ⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲
ࡢ⠊ᅖ(ᖹᆒ±ᶆ‽೫ᕪ)ࡣ 7.25~11.72 mg/L (9.95±0.99 mg/L)࡜࡞ࡾ㸪ᐇ ್ࡢ⠊ᅖ(ᖹᆒ±
ᶆ‽೫ᕪ)࡛࠶ࡿ 7.40~12.80 mg/L (10.06±1.03 mg/L)ࢆᚑࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ(ᅗ ୰)㸬ࡲࡓ㸪R2
ࡣ 0.404㸪AMEࡣ 0.681 mg/L࡜RMSEࡣ 0.866 mg/Lࡢ⤫ィ್ࡀᚓࡽࢀ㸪R 2ࡣ 0.5 ࡼࡾప
࠸ࡀ㸪AME࡜RMSEࡣ 1.0 mg/L௨ୗࡢㄗᕪ࡛࠶ࡗࡓ㸬
(d)SS ࡢ෌⌧ィ⟬⤖ᯝ
SSࡢ෌⌧ィ⟬⤖ᯝࢆᐇ ್࡜ẚ㍑ࡍࡿ࡜ 2005 ᖺ࡜ 2007 ᖺࡢฟỈ࡟ࡼࡿSS⃰ᗘࢆ㐣኱
ホ౯ࡍࡿࡀ㸪ࡑࢀ௨እࡢᖹᖖ᫬ࡢ 10 mg/L௨ୗࡢ⃰ᗘኚ໬ࡣᴫࡡ෌⌧ࡀ࡛ࡁࡓ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀ
ࡿ(ᅗ ୗ)㸬ࡲࡓ㸪R2ࡣ 0.289㸪AMEࡣ 4.326 mg/L࡜RMSEࡣ 6.957 mg/L࡛࠶ࡾ㸪ᑡ
ࡋ⢭ᗘࡀపࡃㄗᕪࡶ኱ࡁ࠿ࡗࡓ㸬
(e)TN࣭TP࣭Chl.aࡢ෌⌧ィ⟬⤖ᯝ
TN㸸2002~2010 ᖺࡢᐇ ್ࡣ 0.47~1.22 mg/L (0.84±0.13 mg/L)ࡢ⠊ᅖ(ᖹᆒ±ᶆ‽೫ᕪ)
࡛࠶ࡾ㸪෌⌧ィ⟬ᮇ㛫࡛ࡣ 0.60~1.47 mg/L (0.76±0.09 mg/L)ࡢ⠊ᅖ(ᖹᆒ±ᶆ‽೫ᕪ)࡜ࡋ
࡚ᐇ ್ࡼࡾ 0.13~0.25 mg/L⛬ᗘ㧗ࡃィ⟬ࡉࢀࡓ(ᅗ ୖ)㸬ࡲࡓ㸪 R2 ࡣ 0.246㸪AME
ࡣ 0.116 mg/L࡜RMSEࡣ 0.142 mg/Lࡢ⢭ᗘ࡛࠶ࡗࡓ㸬ࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞㸪R 2ࡣᑠࡉ࠸ࡀ㸪AME
3.4 ḟඖ†἟⏕ែ⣔ࣔࢹࣝ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண 63
࡜RMSEࡣᐇ ್ࡢ᭱኱್࡜ẚ㍑ࡍࡿ࡜ࡑࢀࡒࢀ 9.5%࡜ 11.6%⛬ᗘࡢㄗᕪ࡛࠶ࡗࡓ㸬
TP㸸ẚ㍑ᮇ㛫࡟࠾ࡅࡿᐇ ್ࡢ⠊ᅖ(ᖹᆒ±ᶆ‽೫ᕪ)ࡣ 0.003~0.050 mg/L (0.012±0.007
mg/L)㸪෌⌧ィ⟬ࡢ⠊ᅖ(ᖹᆒ±ᶆ‽೫ᕪ)ࡣ 0.012~0.024 mg/L (0.015±0.002 mg/L)࡜ࡋ࡚෌
⌧ィ⟬್ࡣ᭱ᑠ್࡜᭱኱್㛫ࡢኚືࡀᐇ ್ࡼࡾᑠࡉ࠿ࡗࡓ㸬෌⌧ィ⟬್ࡣẚ㍑ᮇ㛫࡟࠾
ࡅࡿ඲యⓗ࡟ᐇ ್ࡼࡾ㐣኱ィ⟬ࡉࢀࡿࡇ࡜ࡀศ࠿ࡗࡓ(ᅗ ୰)㸬
Chl.a㸸Chl.aࡢ෌⌧ィ⟬ࡣ⸛⸴㢮(CYANO)㸪⌛⸴㢮(FDIAT)㸪⥳⸴㢮(CHLOR)㸪㠴ẟ⸴
㢮(CRYPT)ࡢ 4 ✀㢮ࢆ⪃៖ࡋ㸪ࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢ⃰ᗘࡢ⥲ྜࢆồࡵ࡚Chl.aࡢ⃰ᗘࢆ⟬ฟࡋࡓ㸬ẚ
㍑ᮇ㛫࡟࠾ࡅࡿᐇ ್ࡣ 0.2~51.6 —g/L (6.07±8.27 —g/L)㸪෌⌧ィ⟬ࡣ 0.4~43.4 —g/L
(5.04±8.43 —g/L)ࡢ⠊ᅖ࡛࠶ࡗࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪R 2ࡣ 0.007㸪AMEࡣ 6.16 —g/L࡜RMSEࡣ 11.32
—g/Lࡀᚓࡽࢀ࡚⤫ィ್࡜ࡋ࡚ࡢ⢭ᗘࡣప࠸ࡀ㸪ẚ㍑ᮇ㛫࡛࠶ࡿ 9 ᖺ㛫࡟࠾ࡅࡿࡍ࡭࡚ࡢ㡯
┠࡛ᖺࠎኚືࡀ୍␒ከ࠸Ỉ㉁㡯┠ࡣChl.a࡛࠶ࡿࡓࡵ㸪ᅗ (ୗ)ࢆࡳࡿ࡜෌⌧ィ⟬್ࡣ 9
ᖺ㛫ࡢ᫬⣔ิኚືࢆᴫࡡ෌⌧࡛ࡁࡓ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬⸴㢮ẖࡢ෌⌧ィ⟬⤖ᯝࢆࡳࡿ࡜ࡍ࡭࡚
ࡢ⸴㢮✀࡛⃰ᗘࡢቑຍ࡜ῶᑡࡢࢱ࢖࣑ࣥࢢࢆᴫࡡ෌⌧ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ(ᅗ )㸬ࡲ
ࡓ㸪⾲ ࡟♧ࡋࡓ⸴㢮ᡂ㛗ࡢỈ 㛵ಀࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱࡣ௚ࡢ◊✲[19][20]ࢆཧ⪃ࡍࡿ࡜ጇᙜ࡞
⠊ᅖ࡛࠶ࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬
ᅗ ෌⌧ィ⟬࡟ࡼࡿィ⟬Ỉ఩࡜ᐇ Ỉ఩࡜ࡢẚ㍑⤖ᯝ
⾲ ᇶ‽Ⅼࡢ⾲ᒙ࡟࠾ࡅࡿᐇ ್࡜෌⌧ィ⟬್࡜ࡢ 5 㸪$0(㸪506(
R2
AME
RMSE
0.973
0.892
1.248
0.404
0.681
SS(mg/L)
0.289
TN(mg/L)
TP(mg/L)
Ỉ Υ
⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲
(mg/L)
R2
AME
RMSE
Chl.aǍJ/
0.007
6.158
11.321
0.866
⸛⸴㢮ǍJ/
0.020
0.370
0.733
4.326
6.957
⌛⸴㢮ǍJ/
0.001
1.094
2.055
0.246
0.116
0.142
⥳⸴㢮ǍJ/
0.050
2.458
4.987
0.082
0.006
0.007
0.001
2.982
5.517
㠴ẟ⸴㢮
ǍJ/
64 ➨ 3 ❶ ᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண ᅗ ᇶ‽Ⅼࡢ⾲ᒙ࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ ࣭⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲࣭66 ࡢ෌⌧ィ⟬࡜ᐇ ್ࡢẚ㍑⤖ᯝ
3.4 ḟඖ†἟⏕ែ⣔ࣔࢹࣝ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண 65
ᅗ ᇶ‽Ⅼࡢ⾲ᒙ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ 71࣭73࣭&KOD ࡢ෌⌧ィ⟬࡜ᐇ ್ࡢẚ㍑⤖ᯝ
66 ➨ 3 ❶ ᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண ᅗ ᇶ‽Ⅼࡢ⾲ᒙ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⸴㢮ࢢ࣮ࣝࣉࡢ෌⌧ィ⟬࡜ᐇ ್ࡢẚ㍑⤖ᯝ
3.4 ḟඖ†἟⏕ែ⣔ࣔࢹࣝ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண 67
⾲ ෌⌧ィ⟬࡛⏝࠸ࡓỈ 㸪⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲㸪ᰤ㣴ሷ㸪&KOD ࡢࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱ>@>@
Parameter
Value
Description
Thermodynamic parameters
Photosynthetically Active Radiation (PAR)
0.25
Near Infrared Radiation (NIR)
1.00
Ultra Violet A Radiation (UVA)
1.00
Ultra Violet B Radiation (UVB)
2.50
Extinction coefficient (m-1)
Oxygen parameters
YO:C
rSOs
KSOs
2.67
Horizontal
value
Photosynthetic stoichiometry ratio of DO to
C (mg DO [mg C]-1)
Static sediment exchange rate (day -1)
Half saturation constant for sediment
oxygen demand (mg L-1)
Nutrient parameters
vN2
1.08
Temp multiplier for denitrification
koN2
0.03
Denitrification rate coefficient (day-1)
KN2
0.5
Half saturation const. for denitrification
(mgL-1)
vON
1.08
Temp multiplier for nitrification
koNH
0.05
Nitrification rate coefficient
Kon
2.0
Half saturation constant for nitrification
PON1max
0.002
Rate coefficient of PONL to DONL (day-1)
DON1max
0.003
Rate coefficient of DONL to NH4 (day-1)
POP1max
0.001
Rate coefficient of POPL to DOPL (day-1)
DOP1max
0.1
Rate coefficient of DONL to PO4 (day-1)
cyanobacteria (C1), diatoms (D), chlorophytes (C2), cryptophytes (C3)
Ǎmax C1,D,C2,C3
kr C1,D,C2,C3
v C1,D,C2,C3
0.8, 0.9, 0.8,
0.8
0.17, 0.08,
0.12, 0.13
na*, -0.1,
-0.01, -0.02
Maximum growth rates of algae (day-1)
Algal respiration, mortality, and excretion
(day-1)
Algal settling velocities (m day-1)
TST C1,D,C2,C3
20, 22, 22, 24
Standard temperature for algal growth (°C)
TOT C1,D,C2,C3
27, 25, 26, 24
Optimum temperature for algal growth (°C)
TMT C1,D,C2,C3
33, 31, 32, 30
Maximum temperature for algal growth (°C)
* : Time-varying settling velocity estimated by stokes equation with buoyancy control model
68 ➨ 3 ❶ ᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண (3) ୗὶἙᕝ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ෌⌧ィ⟬ࡢ⤖ᯝ
ᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࡢᐃᮇㄪᰝᆅⅬ࡛࠶ࡿᨺὶཱྀࢆୗὶἙᕝ࡟࠾ࡅࡿィ⟬⢭ᗘࡢ☜ㄆᆅⅬ࡜ࡋ࡚タ
ᐃࡋ㸪ࡑࡢᆅⅬ࡟࠾ࡅࡿᐇ ್࡜෌⌧ィ⟬ࡉࢀࡓ⤖ᯝࡢẚ㍑ࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ(⾲ )㸬Ỉ ࡟ࡘ࠸
࡚ ᐇ Ỉ ࡣ 3.9~22.2 Υ (11.9±5.0 Υ ) ࡢ ⠊ ᅖ ( ᖹ ᆒ ± ᶆ ‽ ೫ ᕪ ) ࡟ ᑐ ࡋ 㸪 ィ ⟬ Ỉ ࡣ
3.9~25.7Υ(11.1±4.5Υ)ࡢ⠊ᅖ(ᖹᆒ±ᶆ‽೫ᕪ)࡛࠶ࡾ㸪ィ⟬Ỉ ࡢ᭱㧗್ࡣᐇ Ỉ ࡢ᭱
㧗್ࡼࡾ 3.5Υ⛬ᗘ㧗࠸ࡀ㸪9 ᖺ㛫ࡢᏘ⠇ཬࡧ᫬⣔ิኚ໬ࢆࡳࡿ࡜ᴫࡡ෌⌧࡛ࡁࡓ࡜⪃࠼ࡽ
ࢀࡿ(ᅗ ୖ)㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ᐇ ࡢ⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲ࡣ 8.5~13.1 mg/L(10.5±1.1 mg/L)ࡢ⠊ᅖ(ᖹᆒ±ᶆ
‽೫ᕪ)࡟ᑐࡋ㸪ィ⟬್ࡣ 8.6~12.5 mg/L (10.5±0.9 mg/L)ࡢ⠊ᅖ(ᖹᆒ±ᶆ‽೫ᕪ)࡜࡞ࡾ㸪
ᐇ ࡜ィ⟬್ࡢᕪࡣᑠࡉ࠿ࡗࡓ(ᅗ ୰)㸬SS ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣฟỈ᫬࡟㐣኱ホ౯ࡉࢀࡓᇶ‽
Ⅼࡢᙳ㡪ࢆཷࡅ࡚ィ⟬್ࡢ᪉ࡀ㧗ࡃィ⟬ࡉࢀࡓ(ᅗ ୗ)㸬TN ࡢሙྜࡣᐇ ࡜ィ⟬್ࡢ
9 ᖺ㛫ࡢᖹᆒ⃰ᗘࡀࡑࢀࡒࢀ 0.86 mg/L(0.61~1.23 mg/L)࡜ 0.77 mg/L(0.62~1.47 mg/L)㸪
TP ࡣ 0.012 mg/L(ᐇ ⃰ᗘ)࡜ 0.015 mg/L(ィ⟬⃰ᗘ)࡛࠶ࡾ㸪࠶ࡿ⛬ᗘࡢ෌⌧ィ⟬ࡢ⢭ᗘ
ࡀ☜ㄆࡉࢀࡓ(ᅗ ୖ㸪୰)㸬ୗὶἙᕝࡢ Chl.a ⃰ᗘࡢ෌⌧ィ⟬⤖ᯝ(ᖹᆒ್㸸1.42 ǍJ/)
ࡣ㸪ᐇ ⃰ᗘ(ᖹᆒ್㸸2.86 ǍJ/)ࡢ⣙༙ศࡢ⛬ᗘ࡟ィ⟬ࡉࢀࡓࡀ㸪ᖺẖ࡛ࡣ⃰ᗘࡀኟ࡟㧗
ࡃ㸪෤࡟పࡃ࡞ࡿᏘ⠇ࣃࢱ࣮ࣥࢆᴫࡡ෌⌧࡛ࡁࡓ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ(ᅗ ୗ)㸬
⾲ ୗὶἙᕝ࡟࠾ࡅࡿᐇ ್࡜෌⌧ィ⟬್࡜ࡢ 5 㸪$0(㸪506(
Ỉ Υ
⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲
(mg/L)
SS(mg/L)
R2
AME
RMSE
R2
AME
RMSE
0.636
2.113
3.148
TP(mg/L)
0.213
0.107
0.132
0.459
0.634
0.792
TP(mg/L)
0.012
0.006
0.009
0.015
6.770
22.119
Chl.aǍJ/
0.042
2.378
4.049
3.4 ḟඖ†἟⏕ែ⣔ࣔࢹࣝ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண 69
ᅗ ୗὶἙᕝ࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ ࣭⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲࣭66 ࡢ෌⌧ィ⟬࡜ᐇ ್ࡢẚ㍑⤖ᯝ
70 ➨ 3 ❶ ᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண ᅗ ୗὶἙᕝ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ 71࣭73࣭&KOD ࡢ෌⌧ィ⟬࡜ᐇ ್ࡢẚ㍑⤖ᯝ
3.4 ḟඖ†἟⏕ែ⣔ࣔࢹࣝ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண 71
3.4.3 ᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண ࣔࢹࣝࡢᵓ⠏
ᾆᒣࢲ࣒࡟࠾ࡅࡿᑗ᮶ࡢỈ㉁ண ࡢࡓࡵ࡟ 2062~2070 ᖺࡢ 9 ᖺ㛫ࡢィ⟬ࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ㸬
ࡲࡓ㸪
෌⌧ィ⟬ࡣᐇ㝿ࡢࢲ࣒≧ἣࢆ⪃៖ࡋ࡚㐠⏝ࡉࢀࡓ㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛࡢྲྀỈỈ῝࡜ࣂ࢖ࣃࢫ㐠⏝
ࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸ࡓࡓࡵ㸪ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿ㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛࡢྲྀỈỈ῝ࢆ⣽࠿ࡃㄪ⠇ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡣᅔ㞴࡛
࠶ࡿ㸬ࡉࡽ࡟㸪ࣂ࢖ࣃࢫࡣ 2007 ᖺࡢ 4 ᭶࠿ࡽ㐠⏝ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࡓࡵ㸪඲ィ⟬ᮇ㛫(9 ᖺ)࡟ࣂ࢖
ࣃࢫࡢ㐠⏝ࢆ⪃៖ࡍࡿᑗ᮶ண ࡜ࡢ┤᥋ẚ㍑ࡣண ⤖ᯝࡢᐈほⓗ࡞ẚ㍑ࡀ࡛ࡁ࡞࠸࡜⪃࠼
ࡽࢀࡿ㸬ࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡞ࡇ࡜࠿ࡽ㸪⌧ᅾẼೃ࡟ᑐࡍࡿࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ 2002~2010
ᖺࡢࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸ࡓィ⟬ࡶ⾜࠸㸪ࡑࡢ⤖ᯝࢆ⏝࠸࡚ᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝࡢᑐ↷⩌࡜ࡋࡓ㸬
⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶ࡢண ィ⟬࡟࠾ࡅࡿᇶᮏⓗ࡞タᐃࡣ 1)ὶධ㔞ࡣẼೃࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸ࡓὶฟィ⟬
⤖ᯝ࣭ᨺὶ㔞ࡣࢲ࣒㐠⏝࣮ࣝࣝ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ồࡵࡓ⤖ᯝ㸪2)ὶධỈ ࣭ὶධỈ㉁⃰ᗘࡣᅇᖐᘧ
࡜ L-Q ᘧ ࠿ ࡽ ồ ࡵ ࡓ ⤖ ᯝ 㸪 3) ࣂ ࢖ ࣃ ࢫ ࡢ 㐠 ⏝ ࡣ ඲ ᮇ 㛫 ( ⌧ ᅾ 2002~2010 ᖺ 㸪 ᑗ
᮶2062~2070 ᖺ)࡟ࢃࡓࡗ࡚ὶධ⃮ᗘ 10 ᗘ௨ୗ(SS ࡣ 7.8 mg/L ┦ᙜ)ࡢሙྜ࡟㐠⏝㸪4)
ྲྀỈỈ῝ࡣ඲ᮇ㛫 2~4 m ࡢ⾲ᒙྲྀỈࢆ௬ᐃࡋ࡚ィ⟬ࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ㸬
(1) ὶධỈ ࢹ࣮ࢱࡢ⟬ᐃ⤖ᯝ
⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶ࡢỈ㉁ண ࡢࡓࡵࡢὶධỈ ࡣ➨ ❶ࡢᘧ 2-21 ࡟ࡼࡿᅇᖐᘧࢆ⏝࠸࡚⟬ฟࡋ
ࡓ(ᅗ ୖ)㸬⌧ᅾ࡟࠾࠸࡚⟬ฟࡉࢀࡓὶධỈ ࡣ 0.1~20.7Υ(10.4±5.5Υ)ࡢ⠊ᅖࢆ♧ࡋ㸪
ᑗ᮶ࡣ 1.8~24.5Υ(12.4±5.7Υ)࡛⟬ฟࡉࢀ㸪ィ⟬ᮇ㛫9 ᖺ࡟࠾ࡅࡿᑗ᮶ࡣ⌧ᅾࡼࡾ 2.0Υ㧗
ࡃண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬ᖺࠎኚືࢆࡳࡿ࡜⌧ᅾࡣ 2004 ࡜ 2010 ᖺࡀ㧗ࡃ㸪2003 ᖺࡀ୍␒ప࠸⤖ᯝ࡜
࡞ࡾ㸪
ᑗ᮶ࡣ 2067 ࡜ 2068 ᖺࡢࡑࢀࡒࢀᖺᖹᆒὶධỈ ࡀ 12.9Υ࡜ 12.8Υ࡜࡞ࡗࡓ(⾲ )㸬
⾲ ᅇᖐᘧ࡟ࡼࡿ⟬ฟࡉࢀࡓ⌧ᅾ࣭ᑗ᮶ࡢὶධỈ ࡢィ⟬⤖ᯝ
༢఩
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
(䉝)
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
⌧ᅾ
10.4
10.0
10.8
10.2
10.5
10.5
10.1
10.4
10.6
10.4
ᑗ᮶
12.7
12.6
12.0
12.2
12.0
12.9
12.8
12.4
12.2
12.4
ᖹᆒ
(2) ὶධỈ㉁ࢹ࣮ࢱࡢ⟬ᐃ⤖ᯝ
⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲⌧ᅾࡣ 6.8~17.4 mg/L(11.0±2.2 mg/L)࡟⠊ᅖ࡟ᑐࡋ࡚㸪ᑗ᮶࡟ࡣ 6.4~16.0
mg/L(10.3±2.0 mg/L)ࡢ⠊ᅖࡀࡳࡽࢀ࡚ὶධỈ ࡢኚ໬࡟ࡼࡿ⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲ࡢኚ໬ࡀ⏕ࡌ࡚࠸
ࡿ(ᅗ ୰)㸬
SS㸸ὶධ㔞ࡢつᶍ࡟ࡼࡿฟỈ᫬ࡢᙳ㡪ࢆᙉࡃཷࡅࡿ SS ⃰ᗘࡣ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡛ࡑࢀࡒࢀ 17.8
mg/L ࡜ 24.3 mg/L ࡢᖹᆒ್ࢆࡳࡏ࡚ᑗ᮶ࡀ 5.5 mg/L 㧗ࡃ࡚ࣆ࣮ࢡ್ࡣࡑࢀࡒࢀ 5,559 mg/L
࡜ 5,549 mg/L ࢆ♧ࡋ㸪⌧ᅾࡢ SS ࣆ࣮ࢡࡀࡼࡾ㧗࠸ࡇ࡜ࡀ☜ㄆࡉࢀࡓ(ᅗ ୗ)㸬
72 ➨ 3 ❶ ᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண ᅗ ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⟬ᐃࡉࢀࡓὶධỈ ࣭⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲࣭66 ࡢẚ㍑⤖ᯝ
3.4 ḟඖ†἟⏕ែ⣔ࣔࢹࣝ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண 73
NH 4 㸪NO 3 㸪TNNH 4 㸪NO 3 㸪TN࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣ㸪⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡛ᖹᆒ࡜ࡋ࡚ࡢ኱ࡁ࡞ᕪࡣ
ࡳࡽࢀࡎ㸪ฟỈ࡟ࡼࡿὶධ㔞ࡢつᶍ࡟ࡼࡿࣆ࣮ࢡ್ࡢ⃰ᗘࡀ⏕ࡌ࡚࠸ࡿ(ᅗ )㸬⃰ᗘࡢ
⟬ฟ࡛኱ࡁ࡞ᙳ㡪ࢆ୚࠼ࡿὶධ㔞ࡢ᭱኱್ࡣࡑࢀࡒࢀ 312.4 m3/s(⌧ᅾ)࡜ 311.9 m3/s(ᑗ᮶)
࡛࠶ࡗࡓ(⾲ )㸬
ᅗ ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⟬ᐃࡉࢀࡓ 1+ ࣭12 ࣭71 ࡢẚ㍑⤖ᯝ
74 ➨ 3 ❶ ᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண PO 4 㸪TPPO 4 ࡣࡑࢀࡒࢀ 0.007~0.02 mg/L(⌧ᅾ)࡜ 0.006~0.02 mg/L(ᑗ᮶)㸪TP࡟ࡘ࠸
࡚ࡣ 0.007~0.028 mg/L࡜ 0.006~0.028 mg/Lࡢ⠊ᅖ࡛ὶධỈ㉁ࡢኚືࡀ㉳ࡇࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ(ᅗ
ୖ㸪ᅗ ୰)㸬
Chl.a㸸❅⣲࡜ࣜࣥࡀ᭱ప್࡜࡞ࡿ᫬࡟ Chl.a ࡣ᭱኱್࡜࡞ࡾ㸪཯ᑐࡢኚືࡀ⏕ࡌ࡚࠸ࡿ㸬
ᖹᆒ್࡜ࡋ࡚ࡣࡑࢀࡒࢀ ǍJ/ ࡜ ǍJ/ ࡜࡞ࡾ㸪ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿ 0.024 ǍJ/ 㧗ࡃ
࡞ࡿࣃࢱ࣮ࣥ࡜࡞ࡗࡓ(ᅗ ୗ)㸬
ᅗ ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⟬ᐃࡉࢀࡓ 32 ࣭73࣭&KOD ࡢẚ㍑⤖ᯝ
3.4 ḟඖ†἟⏕ែ⣔ࣔࢹࣝ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண 75
(3) ㈓Ỉụ㐠⏝࣮ࣝࣝ࡟ࡼࡿỈ఩ኚືࡢỴᐃ⤖ᯝ
ᮏ❶ࡢ 3.4.1 ࡟㏙࡭ࡓࡼ࠺࡟⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿὶධ㔞࡟ᑐࡍࡿᨺὶ㔞ࢆỴᐃࡋ㸪ࡑࢀ
࡟క࠺Ỉ఩ࡢኚ໬ࢆ᳨ウࡋࡓ㸬⌧ᅾẼೃ࡟࠾ࡅࡿィ⟬ᮇ㛫࡛࠶ࡿ 9 ᖺ㛫(2002~2010 ᖺ)ࡢ
Ỉ఩ࡣEL. 370.7~393.3 m (ᖹᆒEL. 379.4 m)ࡢ⠊ᅖᖜ࡛ኚືࡋ㸪ẖᖺࡢኚືࢆẚ㍑ࡍࡿ
࡜ 2006 ᖺࡀ᭱ᑠ್࡛࠶ࡾ㸪2004 ᖺࡀ᭱኱್࡛࠶ࡗࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ᑗ᮶ࡣEL. 370.0~390.4 m (ᖹ
ᆒEL. 376.9 m)ࡢ⠊ᅖ࡜࡞ࡾ㸪2069 ᖺ࡛᭱ᑠ್㸪2070 ᖺ࡛᭱኱್࡜࡞ࡾ㸪ᑗ᮶ࡢᖹᆒỈ
఩ࡀ⌧ᅾࡼࡾపࡃ࡞ࡗࡓ(ᅗ 㸪⾲ )㸬ࡇࢀࡣ㸪9 ᖺ㛫ࡢࢲ࣒࡬ࡢ⥲ὶධ㔞ࡣ⌧ᅾ(158
༓m 3)ࡼࡾᑗ᮶(190 ༓m3 )࡛ከ࠸ࡀ㸪ᅗ ࡟♧ࡋࡓࡼ࠺࡟ 8 ᭶࡟ᑗ᮶ࡢὶධ㔞ࡀከࡃ㸪ࡑ
ࡢ᫬ᮇࡀኟᏘࡢὥỈ㈓␃‽ഛỈ఩(EL. 372.0 m)࡜ࡋ࡚Ỉ఩ࡀ୍ᐃ࡟ಖࡓࢀࡿࡓࡵ㸪ᨺὶ㔞
ࡶᑗ᮶ࡀከࡃ࡞ࡿࡓࡵ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬
ᅗ ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢỈ఩ኚື
⾲ ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶ࡢ࠾ࡅࡿ ᖺ㛫ࡢᖹᆒỈ఩࡜ẖᖺࡢᖹᆒỈ఩
༢఩
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
(m)
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
⌧ᅾ
377.5㻌 379.4㻌 381.5㻌 381.2㻌 374.0㻌 380.1㻌 378.0㻌 381.0㻌 382.4㻌 379.4
ᑗ᮶
376.1㻌 376.0㻌 378.6㻌 373.3㻌 378.1㻌 379.6㻌 377.5㻌 373.2㻌 380.0㻌 376.9
ᖹᆒ
76 ➨ 3 ❶ ᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண 3.4.4 ࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ㉁ኚ໬᳨ウ
ᾆᒣࢲ࣒࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⌧ᅾ(2002~2010 ᖺ)࡜ᑗ᮶(2062~2070 ᖺ)࡟ࡘ࠸࡚Ỉ㉁ண ࢆ⾜࠸㸪
ᨺὶᆅⅬ࠿ࡽ⣙ 500 m ୖὶ࡟఩⨨ࡋࡓࢲ࣒ᇶ‽Ⅼ࡟࠾࠸࡚⾲ᒙ(Ỉ῝ 0.5 m)㸪୰ᒙ(Ỉ఩࡜
EL. 308.0 m ࡢᖹᆒỈ῝)㸪ᗏᒙ(EL. 308.0 m)ࡢỈ ࡸỈ㉁㡯┠࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢỈ㉁ኚ
໬ࡢ᳨ウࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ㸬ࡲࡎ㸪⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾࠸࡚⾲ᒙ㸪୰ᒙ㸪ᗏᒙ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ 9 ᖺ㛫ᖹᆒỈ ࡟ᑐࡋኚ໬ࢆᅗ ࡟♧ࡋࡓ㸬ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿᖹᆒỈ ࡣ⌧ᅾ࡜ẚ࡭࡚⾲ᒙ࡛ 2.8Υ㸪୰ᒙ
࡛ 2.0Υ㸪ᗏᒙ࡛ 1.6Υ㧗ࡃ࡞ࡾ㸪
⾲ᒙࡢỈ ࡀ 3 ࡘࡢᒙ࡛᭱ࡶ㧗ࡃ࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ☜ㄆࡉࢀࡓ㸬
ࡇࢀࡣẼ ୖ᪼࡜࡜ࡶ࡟Ỉ ࡀୖ᪼ࡋ㸪Ỉ῝ࡀὸ࠸࡯࡝ᙉࡃᙳ㡪ࡀ୚࠼࡚⾲ᒙࡢᕪࡀ኱ࡁ
࠿ࡗࡓ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶ࡢ෤(12~2 ᭶)࡜ኟ(6~8 ᭶)࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ ࡢ㖄┤ศ
ᕸࢆᅗ ࡜ᅗ ࡟♧ࡋࡓ㸬ᚠ⎔ᮇ࡛࠶ࡿ෤࡟࠾࠸࡚㸪⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾࠸࡚⾲ᒙࡣࡑ
ࢀࡒࢀ 6.3Υ㸪8.5Υ㸪୰ᒙ(Ỉ῝ 35 m)ࡣ 6.1Υ㸪8.0Υ㸪ᗏᒙ(Ỉ῝ 70 m)ࡣ 4.6Υ㸪6.1Υ࡜
࡞ࡗࡓ㸬ࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡟ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⾲ᒙ࡜ᗏᒙࡢỈ ᕪࡀ኱ࡁ࠿ࡗࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪⌧ᅾࡢ෤࡟࠾
࠸࡚ᖺࡈ࡜࡟ࡳࡿ࡜ 2006 ᖺࡢỈ㠃Ỉ (5.0Υ)ࡣᖹᆒ(6.3Υ)ࡼࡾప࠸Ỉ ࡛࠶ࡗࡓ㸬ࡇࢀ
ࡣ 2005 ᖺ 12 ᭶~2006 ᖺ 2 ᭶ࡢᖹᆒẼ (2.0Υ)ࡀ 2002~2010 ᖺࡢ 12~2 ᭶ࡢᖹᆒẼ (3.0Υ)ࡼࡾప࠸ࡓࡵ࡛࠶ࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬ࡉࡽ࡟㸪ᑗ᮶࡟ࡣ 2067 ᖺࡢỈ㠃Ỉ (9.1Υ)ࡀࡑ
ࢀࡒࢀỈ㠃ࡢᖹᆒỈ (8.5Υ)ࡼࡾ㧗ࡃ㸪ᖹᆒẼ ࢆẚ࡭ࡿ࡜ࡑࢀࡒࢀ 6.7Υ㸪5.6Υ࡞ࡗࡓ㸬
ኟ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⾲ᒙ࡜ᗏᒙ࡛ࡢỈ ᕪࢆẚ㍑ࡍࡿ࡜㸪⌧ᅾࡣ 18.2Υ(⾲ᒙ22.7Υ㸪ᗏᒙ4.5Υ)㸪
ᅗ ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⾲ᒙ࣭୰ᒙ࣭ᗏᒙࡢỈ ࣭⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲࣭66 ࡢኚ໬
3.4 ḟඖ†἟⏕ែ⣔ࣔࢹࣝ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண 77
ᅗ ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶ࡢ෤~ ᭶࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ ࡢ㖄┤ศᕸ
78 ➨ 3 ❶ ᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝ࡟࠾ࡅࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண ᅗ ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶ࡢኟ~ ᭶࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ ࡢ㖄┤ศᕸ
3.4 ḟඖ†἟⏕ែ⣔ࣔࢹࣝ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண 79
ᑗ᮶ࡣ 19.7Υ(⾲ᒙ25.7Υ㸪ᗏᒙ6.0Υ)࡜࡞ࡾ㸪ᑗ᮶ࡣ⌧ᅾࡼࡾỈ ᕪࡀ 1.5Υ㧗ࡃ㸪ᡂ
ᒙᙉᗘࡀᙉࡃ࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟࡞ࡗࡓ㸬⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣ㸪⾲ᒙ㸪୰ᒙ㸪ᗏᒙࡢ⃰ᗘ
ࡣࡑࢀࡒࢀ 10.41 mg/L㸪11.60 mg/L㸪11.94 mg/L࡜ᑗ᮶ࡣࡑࢀࡒࢀ 9.61 mg/L㸪10.85 mg/L㸪
11.28 mg/L࡜࡞ࡾ㸪⾲ᒙ࡛ 0.79 mg/L㸪୰ᒙ࡛ 0.75 mg/L㸪ᗏᒙ࡛ 0.66 mg/L㧗࠸ࡇ࡜ࡀண
ࡉࢀࡓ㸬ࡉࡽ࡟㸪ᗏᒙ࡛ࡶ㸪3.0 mg/L௨ୗ࡜࡞ࡿ㈋㓟⣲⌧㇟ࡣ⌧ᅾ㸪ᑗ᮶࡜ࡶ࡟ࡳࡽࢀ
࡞࠿ࡗࡓ㸬SSࡣฟỈ࡟ࡼࡿ⃰ᗘࡢቑຍࡀண᝿ࡉࢀ㸪⌧ᅾࡣ 100 m 3/s௨ୖࡢฟỈࡀ 2003㸪
2007㸪2009 ᖺ࡟㉳ࡁࡿࡢ࡟ᑐࡋ㸪ᑗ᮶ࡣ 2062~2067 ᖺ࡜ 2070 ᖺ࡟࠶ࡿࡓࡵ㸪ࡍ࡭࡚ࡢ
ᒙ࡟࠾࠸࡚ᖹᆒSSࡣ⌧ᅾ(⾲ᒙ10.3 mg/L㸪୰ᒙ11.3 mg/L㸪ᗏᒙ11.1 mg/L)ࡼࡾᑗ᮶(⾲
ᒙ24.3 mg/L㸪୰ᒙ28.6 mg/L㸪ᗏᒙ24.7 mg/L)ࡣ⾲ᒙ࡛ 14.0 mg/L㸪୰ᒙࡣ 17.3 mg/L㸪
ᗏᒙ࡛ 13.6 mg/L㧗࠸ࡇ࡜ࡀ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟࡞ࡗࡓ㸬TN࡜TPࡣฟỈ࡟ࡼࡿὶධ㈇Ⲵ㔞ࡢቑຍ࡟ࡼ
ࡿኚືࡣࡳࡽࢀࡓࡀ㸪3 ࡘࡢᒙ࡛኱ࡁ࠸ᕪࡣࡳࡽࢀ࡞࠿ࡗࡓ㸬Chl.aࡢ⾲ᒙ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ᪥ᖹᆒ
᭱኱⃰ᗘࡣ⌧ᅾ 47.2 ǍJ/㸪ᑗ᮶ࡣ 40.5 ǍJ/㸪9 ᖺ㛫ᖹᆒ್ࡣࡑࢀࡒࢀ 5.3 ǍJ/㸪2.4 ǍJ/
࡜࡞ࡾ㸪ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿChl.a⃰ᗘࡀపࡃ࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ(ᅗ )㸬ࡉࡽ࡟㸪⾲ᒙࡢ᪥
ᖹᆒ⃰ᗘࡀ 20 ǍJ/௨ୖࢆ㉸࠼ࡿ᪥ᩘࡣ 9 ᖺ㛫࡛⌧ᅾࡣ 370 ᪥㸪ᑗ᮶ࡣ 66 ᪥࡛࠶ࡗࡓ(ᅗ
)㸬Chl.a⃰ᗘࡢపୗࡣ㸪ᑗ᮶ࡢẼ ࡢୖ᪼࡟క࠺Ỉ ୖ᪼ࡀChl.aࡢᡂ㛗࡟㐺ࡉ࡞ࡃ࡞
ࡾ㸪ࡲࡓ㸪㢖ᗘࡢ㧗࠸ฟỈ࡜⾲ᒙᨺὶ࡟ࡼࡾChl.aࡀ᤼ฟࡉࢀ㸪ࡉࡽ࡟㸪ฟỈᚋ࡟ṧ␃ࡍࡿ
⃮Ỉ࡟ࡼࡿග㜼ᐖ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚Chl.aࡀቑຍࡋ࡟ࡃࡃ࡞ࡗࡓ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬୰ᒙ࡜ᗏᒙ࡛ࡢ⃰ᗘ
ࡣ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡜ࡶ࡟ 0.5 ǍJ/௨ୗࡢప࠸⃰ᗘࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬
ᅗ ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⾲ᒙ࣭୰ᒙ࣭ᗏᒙࡢ 71࣭73࣭&KOD ࡢኚ໬
80 ➨ 3 ❶ ᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண ᅗ ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿᇶ‽Ⅼࡢ⾲ᒙࡢ᪥ᖹᆒ &KOD ⃰ᗘ
3.4.5 ୗὶἙᕝ࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ㉁ኚ໬᳨ウ
ࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡟࠾ࡅࡿୗὶἙᕝࡢỈ㉁ࡣࢲ࣒†ෆ࡯࡝㔜せ࡞Ỉ㈨※࡛࠶ࡿࡓࡵ㸪ᑗ᮶࡟ኚ
໬ࡀண᝿ࡉࢀࡿୗὶἙᕝ࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ㉁ኚ໬ࡢ᳨ウࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ㸬⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿ 9 ᖺ㛫ࡢ
ᖹᆒᨺὶỈ (⠊ᅖ)ࡣ⌧ᅾ࡛ 11.7Υ(1.6~27.8Υ)㸪ᑗ᮶࡛ 13.1Υ(3.7~27.3Υ)࡜࡞ࡾ㸪ᑗ᮶
࡟ 1.4Υ㧗ࡃ࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ(ᅗ )㸬⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲ࡢᖹᆒᨺὶ⃰ᗘ(⠊ᅖ)ࡣ⌧ᅾ࡛ 10.7
mg/L(8.3~13.4 mg/L)㸪ᑗ᮶࡛ 10.0 mg/L(6.7~12.3 mg/L)࡜࡞ࡾ 0.7 mg/L ⛬ᗘపࡃ㸪ᖹᆒ
ᨺὶ SS(⠊ᅖ)ࡣ⌧ᅾ࡛ 10.5 mg/L(1.4~728.4 mg/L)㸪ᑗ᮶࡛ 25.2 mg/L(1.5~1517.8 mg/L)
ࡀண ࡉࢀ㸪ᖹᆒ 14.7 mg/L ⛬ᗘ㧗ࡃ㸪᭱኱್ࢆẚ㍑ࡍࡿ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟ 789.5 mg/L 㧗࠿ࡗࡓ㸬
TN ࡜ TP ࡟࠾࠸࡚⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶ࡢᨺὶ⃰ᗘࡣ TN ࡛ࡑࢀࡒࢀ 0.78 mg/L㸪0.82 mg/L㸪TP ࡛
0.015 mg/L㸪0.016 mg/L ࡜࡞ࡾᑗ᮶࡟ TN ࡣ 4.7%㸪TP ࡣ 4.1%㧗ࡃ࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀ
ࡓ(ᅗ )㸬Chl.a ࡢᖹᆒᨺὶ⃰ᗘ(⠊ᅖ)ࡣ⌧ᅾ࡛ 3.41 ǍJ/(0.4~32.8 ǍJ/)㸪ᑗ᮶࡛ 1.54
ǍJ/(0.3 ~23.8 ǍJ/)࡜࡞ࡾ㸪ᑗ᮶࡟పࡃ࡞ࡿࣃࢱ࣮ࣥࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬ࡍ࡭࡚ࡢ㡯┠ࡣ⾲ᒙ
ྲྀỈ࡟ࡼࡿ⾲ᒙࡢỈ ࡸỈ㉁ࡢᙳ㡪ࢆᙉࡃཷࡅ࡚ࢲ࣒ᇶ‽Ⅼ࡛ࡢኚ໬࡜ྠࡌࣃࢱ࣮ࣥࢆࡳ
ࡏࡓ㸬
ࡲࡓ㸪ୗὶἙᕝ࡟࠾࠸࡚ከࡃࡢࢲ࣒࡛ᣦ᦬ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ෭࣭ Ỉᨺὶ㸪⃮ỈᨺὶࡢほⅬ࠿
ࡽỈ㉁ၥ㢟ࢆホ౯ࡋࡓ㸬ࡲࡎ㸪෭࣭ Ỉᨺὶ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡢቃ⏺ࡣ౽ᐅⓗ࡟⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶ࡢィ⟬
ᮇ㛫࡛ࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢὶධỈ ࡟ᑐࡍࡿ⌧ᅾࡢ᪥ᖹᆒỈ ࡜ࡑࡢᶆ‽೫ᕪ ǔ ࢆồࡵ㸪᪥ᖹᆒỈ
࠿ࡽ ǔ ࢆᘬ࠸࡚ࡑࢀࡢỈ ࡼࡾపࡃᨺὶࡉࢀࡓ᫬ࢆ෭Ỉᨺὶ࡜ᐃ⩏ࡋ㸪ࡲࡓ㸪᪥ᖹᆒỈ
࠿ࡽ ǔ ࢆຍ࠼ࡓ್ࡼࡾ㧗ࡃᨺὶࡉࢀࡓ᫬ࢆ Ỉᨺὶ࡜ࡋ࡚⟬ฟࡋࡓ[21]㸬ࡑࡢ⤖ᯝ㸪9
ᖺ㛫ࡢ ǔ ࡢᖹᆒ್ࡣ 0.7Υ࡛࠶ࡗࡓ㸬⌧ᅾࡢ 9 ᖺ㛫࡟࠾ࡅࡿ෭Ỉᨺὶࡣィ 880 ᪥(98 ᪥/ᖺ)
࡛࠶ࡾ㸪 Ỉᨺὶࡣィ 1,915 ᪥(213 ᪥/ᖺ)࡛࠶ࡗࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ᑗ᮶ࡢ෭Ỉᨺὶࡣィ 429 ᪥(48
᪥/ᖺ)㸪 Ỉᨺὶࡣィ 2,432 ᪥(270 ᪥/ᖺ)࡜࡞ࡾ㸪⌧ᅾ࡜ẚ࡭࡚෭Ỉᨺὶࡣ 451 ᪥(50 ᪥/ᖺ)
ῶᑡࡋ㸪 Ỉᨺὶࡣ 517 ᪥(57 ᪥/ᖺ)ࡀቑຍࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ(ᅗ ࡜ᅗ )㸬ࡇ
3.4 ḟඖ†἟⏕ែ⣔ࣔࢹࣝ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண 81
ࢀࡣᑗ᮶࡟ୖ᪼ࡍࡿὶධỈ (ᖹᆒ 2.0Υ)ࡼࡾୖ᪼ࡍࡿ⾲ᒙỈ (ᖹᆒ 2.8Υ)ࡀ኱ࡁࡃ㸪㑅ᢥ
ྲྀỈタഛ᧯స࡜ࡋ࡚⾲ᒙྲྀỈ(Ỉ῝ 2~4 m)ࢆ⾜࠺ࡓࡵ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬
ᅗ ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶ࡢୗὶἙᕝ࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ ࡜Ỉ㉁ࡢኚ໬
ᅗ ⌧ᅾୖ࡜ᑗ᮶ୗ࡟࠾ࡅࡿẖᖺᨺὶỈ ࡢ᫬⣔ิኚ໬࡜෭࣭ Ỉᨺὶࡢ⠊ᅖ
82 ➨ 3 ❶ ᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண ᅗ ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶ࡢ ᖺ㛫࡟࠾ࡅࡿ෭Ỉᨺὶ࡜ Ỉᨺὶࡢᨺὶ᪥ᩘ
SS࡟ࡘ࠸࡚Ỉ㐨⏝Ỉ 1࣭2࣭3 ⣭ࡢἙᕝ⎔ቃᇶ‽࡛࠶ࡿ 25 mg/L(᪥ᖹᆒ್)࡟ᇶ࡙ࡃ᪥ᖹ
ᆒ⃰ᗘࡀᇶ‽್ࢆ㉸࠼ࡿ᪥ᩘࢆホ౯ࡋࡓ㸬⌧ᅾ࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡣ 9 ᖺ㛫࡟ᇶ‽್ࢆ㉸࠼ࡓ᪥ᩘࡣ
ィ 181 ᪥(20 ᪥/ᖺ)࡜࡞ࡿࡀ㸪2007 ᖺࡢฟỈ᫬࡟ࡣ 79 ᪥㛫㐃⥆࡛㧗SSࡢᨺὶࡀ࠶ࡗࡓ㸬
ࡉࡽ࡟㸪ᑗ᮶࡟ࡣィ 597 ᪥(66 ᪥/ᖺ)ࡢ㧗SSࡀᨺὶࡉࢀ㸪2066 ᖺ㸪2067 ᖺ㸪2070 ᖺࡣࡑ
ࢀࡒࢀᖺ㛫 100 ᪥௨ୖࡢ㧗SSࡀᨺὶࡉࢀࡿࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ(ᅗ 㸪⾲ )㸬ࡇࡢࡼ࠺
࡟ᑗ᮶ࡣ⌧ᅾࡼࡾẼ ࡢୖ᪼࡜ὥỈࡢつᶍ࡜㢖ᗘࡢቑຍ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚㸪 Ỉᨺὶࡸ㧗SSࡢᨺὶ
ࡀ㉳ࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡀ㧗ࡃ࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟࡞ࡗࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ฟỈ᫬࡟ὶධࡍࡿ⃮Ỉࡣ†ෆ࡛ỿ
㝆࣭ሁ✚ࡍࡿ࡜㈓Ỉᐜ㔞ࡀῶᑡ࡜࡞ࡿ㸬ࡑࡇ࡛㸪ὶධ㔞࡜ὶධSS࠿ࡽ᥎ᐃࡋࡓὶධᅵ◁࡟
ᑐࡍࡿᨺὶ㔞࡜ᨺὶSS࠿ࡽ᥎ᐃࡋࡓᨺὶᅵ◁ࡢ཰ᨭࢆồࡵ࡚㸪ᨺὶᅵ◁㔞࡜ሁ✚ᅵ◁㔞ࢆ
ホ౯ࡋࡓ㸬⾲ ࡟⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࡢᅵ◁ሁ✚㔞࡜ሁ✚⋡ࢆ♧ࡋࡓ㸬Ⲩᕝࢲ
࣒⥲ྜ⟶⌮ᡤ࡟ࡼࡿᖺィ⏬ሁ✚㔞ࡣ 20 ༓m3/ᖺ࡛࠶ࡿࡀ㸪ᩘ್ࢩ࣑࣮ࣗࣞࢩࣙࣥࡣ⢏ᚄ 25
ǍP௨ୗ࡛࠶ࡿ୺࡟ᾋ㐟◁ࢆᑐ㇟࡜ࡋ࡚࠾ࡾ㸪⌧ᅾ㸪ࢲ࣒࡟ὶධࡍࡿ 9 ᖺ㛫ࡢ⥲ᅵ◁㔞ࡣ⣙
105 ༓m3㸪ᑗ᮶ࡣ⣙ 443 ༓m3࡜኱ᖜቑຍࡍࡿὶධᅵ◁㔞ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬ࡑࡢ୰㸪⌧ᅾࡣ 13
༓m3ࡀᨺὶࡉࢀ㸪91 ༓m3ࡀࢲ࣒†ෆ࡟ሁ✚ࡋ㸪ὶධᅵ◁ࡢ 12.5%ࡀᨺὶࡉࢀࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ᑗ
᮶࡟ࡣ 96 ༓m3ࡀᨺὶࡉࢀ㸪347 ༓m3ࡀࢲ࣒†ෆ࡟ሁ✚ࡋ㸪ὶධᅵ◁ࡢ 21.7%ࡀᨺὶࡉࢀࡿ
ࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬ࡇࢀࡣ⌧ᅾࡼࡾᑗ᮶ࡢฟỈ㢖ᗘࡀቑຍࡋࢲ࣒␃᫬㛫ࡀ▷ࡃ࡞ࡿࡓࡵ㸪
ᑗ᮶࡟ࡼࡾከࡃࡢᅵ◁ࡢ᤼㝖ࡀྍ⬟࡜࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬
⾲ ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿẖᖺࡢ⃮Ỉᨺὶ᪥ᩘ࡜᭱኱㐃⥆᪥ᩘ
᭱኱
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
(᪥)
2062
2063
2064
2065
2066
2067
2068
2069
2070
⌧ᅾ
0
30
0
0
0
97
0
30
24
79
ᑗ᮶
44
4
30
18
116
231
28
0
127
266
༢఩
㐃⥆
᪥ᩘ
3.4 ḟඖ†἟⏕ែ⣔ࣔࢹࣝ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண 83
ᅗ ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿᨺὶ 66 ࡢ᫬⣔ิኚ໬
⾲ ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶ࡢࢲ࣒†ෆ࡟࠾ࡅࡿẖᖺࡢᅵ◁ሁ✚㔞࡜ሁ✚⋡
༢఩䠖m3
ὶධᅵ◁㔞
ᨺὶᅵ◁㔞
ሁ✚㔞
2002/2062
4,860/21,518
219/1,880
4,641/19,638
2003/2063
14,616/10,562
1,097/558
13,519/10,004
2004/2064
2,848/31,722
290/5,405
2,558/26,317
2005/2065
526/10,777
342/1,135
184/9,642
2006/2066
4,658/156,605
287/35,262
4,371/121,343
2007/2067
57,081/11,762
9,027/1,709
48,054/10,053
2008/2068
4251/323
661/662
3,590/-339
2009/2069
6,108/416
537/391
5,571/25
2010/2070
9,807/199,600
615/49,394
9,192/150,206
⣼✚ᅵ◁㔞
104,755/443,285
13,075/96,396
91,681/346,890
ሁ✚⋡(%)
䠉
12.5/21.7
87.5/78.3
84 ➨ 3 ❶ ᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண 3.5 ⤖ㄒ
ᮏ❶࡛ࡣ㸪㒔ᕷᅪࢆ୰ᚰ࡟ 1 ᪥ 35 ୓m3 ࡢỈ㐨⏝Ỉࢆᥦ౪ࡋ࡚࠸ࡿ㔜せ࡞Ỉ࣓࡛࢞࠶ࡿ
Ⲩᕝὶᇦࡢᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࢆᑐ㇟࡟ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿ㛗ᮇ㛫(9 ᖺ㛫)ࡢண ィ⟬ࢆ⾜࠸㸪ᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࡢࢲ
࣒†ෆ࡜ୗὶἙᕝࡢỈ㉁ኚ໬ࢆ᳨ウࡋࡓ㸬ࡇࡇ࡛ᮏ❶࡟࠾ࡅࡿᡂᯝࢆࡲ࡜ࡵࡿ࡜௨ୗࡢࡼ
࠺࡟࡞ࡿ㸬
1) WRF࡟ࡼࡾࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣝࡉࢀࡓẼ㇟ண ࡟ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ⤖ᯝ㸪9 ᖺ㛫ࡢᑗ
᮶ ᖹ ᆒ Ẽ ࡣ ⌧ ᅾ ᖹ ᆒ Ẽ ࡼ ࡾ 2.9 Υ ୖ ᪼ ࡋ 㸪 ࡲ ࡓ 㸪 ࢲ ࢘ ࣥ ࢫ ࢣ ࣮ ࣝ ⤖ ᯝ ࡟
YHyM/BTOPMCࢆ㐺⏝ࡋ࡚ᚓࡽࢀࡓ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶ࡢᾆᒣࢲ࣒࡬ࡢὶධ㔞ࡢࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇ⤖
ᯝ㸪ᑗ᮶ࡣ⌧ᅾࡼࡾ 0.4 m3/s⛬ᗘቑຍࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬
2) ᑗ᮶ண ࡢࡓࡵ࡟ᵓ⠏ࡋࡓ ELCOM-CAEDYM ࣔࢹࣝࡢධຊࢹ࣮ࢱ࡜ࡋ࡚ὶධỈ ࡣ
Ẽ ࠿ࡽồࡵࡿᅇᖐᘧࢆ⏝࠸ࡓࡓࡵ㸪Ẽ ࡢᙳ㡪ࡀ୚࠼࡚ᑗ᮶ࡣ⌧ᅾࡼࡾ 9 ᖺ㛫ᖹᆒ࡛
2.0Υୖ᪼ࡋ㸪⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲ࡣ 0.7 mg/L పୗࡋࡓ㸬ࡉࡽ࡟㸪ὶධ SS ⃰ᗘࡣὶධ㔞࠿ࡽồࡵࡿ
L-Q ᘧࢆ⏝࠸ࡓࡓࡵ㸪ὶධ㔞ࡀࡼࡾከ࠸ᑗ᮶࡟⌧ᅾ࡜ẚ࡭࡚ 9 ᖺ㛫ᖹᆒ 6.5 mg/L ቑຍࡍࡿ
ࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬
3) 2002~2010 ᖺࡢ෌⌧ィ⟬࠿ࡽᴫࡡ෌⌧࡛ࡁࡓࣃ࣓࣮ࣛࢱࢆ⏝࠸࡚⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶ண ࢆ⾜
ࡗࡓ⤖ᯝ㸪ࢲ࣒ᇶ‽Ⅼ࡟࠾࠸࡚ᑗ᮶࡟ࡣẼ ࡢୖ᪼࡟క࠸⾲ᒙỈ ࡀᖹᆒ 2.8Υ㧗ࡃ࡞ࡿ
࡜࡜ࡶ࡟Ỉ ᡂᒙࡶᙉࡃ࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ᑗ᮶ࡣฟỈࡢつᶍ࡜㢖ᗘቑຍ࡟ࡼ
ࡾ㢖⦾࡞㧗⃮Ỉࡢὶධ࣭ṧ␃࣭ᨺὶࡀண ࡉࢀࡓࡀ㸪㏫࡟ᑗ᮶ࡢ Chl.a ࡣ⾲ᒙỈ ࡢୖ᪼
ࡸᨺὶ㸪ฟỈ࡟ࡼࡿ⃮Ỉࡀ Chl.a ࡢᡂ㛗ࢆ㜼ᐖࡋ⌧ᅾࡼࡾపࡃ࡞ࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡀ㧗࠸ࡇ࡜ࢆ᫂
ࡽ࠿࡟ࡋࡓ㸬
4) ࢲ࣒࠿ࡽࡢᨺὶ࡟ࡼࡿୗὶἙᕝࡢỈ㉁ኚ໬ࢆࡳࡿ࡜㸪9 ᖺ㛫࡟㸪ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿ෭Ỉᨺ
ὶ(ィ 429 ᪥)ࡣ⌧ᅾ(880 ᪥)ࡼࡾ▷ࡃ࡞ࡿࡀ㸪ᑗ᮶ࡢ Ỉᨺὶ(ィ 2,432 ᪥)ࡣ⌧ᅾ(ィ 1,915
᪥)ࡼࡾ㛗ࡃ࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬ࡉࡽ࡟㸪25 mg/L ࢆ㉸࠼ࡿ SS ࡢᨺὶࡣ⌧ᅾ(ィ 181
᪥)ࡼࡾࡶᑗ᮶(ィ 597 ᪥)࡟኱ᖜ࡟ቑຍࡋ㸪ᨺὶࡉࢀࡓᅵ◁㔞ࢆẚ㍑ࡍࡿ࡜ᑗ᮶(21.7%)ࡣ⌧
ᅾ(12.5%)ࡼࡾᨺὶࡉࢀࡓࡇ࡜ࡀ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟࡞ࡗࡓ㸬
௒ᚋࡣᑗ᮶࡟㉳ࡇࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡀ㧗࠸ Ỉᨺὶࡸ㧗 SS ࡢᨺὶᮇ㛫ࢆ࡛ࡁࡿࡔࡅ▷⦰࡛ࡁࡿ
㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛ࡞࡝ࡢỈ㉁ಖ඲᪋タࡢ㐠⏝᪉ἲࢆ᳨ウࡋ㸪ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿࢲ࣒†ෆ࡜ୗὶἙᕝ㸪
୧᪉ࡢỈ㉁ࡢྥୖࡉࡏࡿ᪉ἲࢆᥦ᱌ࡍࡿᚲせࡀ࠶ࡿ㸬
➨ 3 ❶ ཧ⪃ᩥ⊩ 85
̿➨ 3 ❶ཧ⪃ᩥ⊩̿
[1] IPCC, 2007. Climate change 2007: The Scientific Basis, IPCC Contribution of
Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
[2] Giorgi, F., Marinucci, M. R. and Visconti, G., 1990. Use of a limited-area model
nested in a general circulation model for regional climate simulation over Europe.
J. Geophys. Res., 95, 18413-18431.
[3] von Storch, H., 1999. On the use of “inflation” in statistical downscaling. Journal of
Climate, 12, 3505-3506.
[4] Christensen, N. S., Wood, A. W., Voisin, N., Lettenmaier, D. P. and Palmer, R. N.,
2004. The effects of climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the
Colorado River basin. Climatic Change, 62, 337-363.
[5] Jha, M., Arnold, J. G., Gassman, P. W., Giorgi, F. and Gu, R. R., 2006. Climate
changes sensitivity assessment on upper mississippi river basin streamflows using
SWAT. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 42, 997-1015.
[6] Koirala, S. R., and Gentry, R. W., 2012. SWAT and Wavelet Analysis for
Understanding the Climate Change Impact on Hydrologic Response. Open Journal
of Modern Hydrology, 2, 41-48.
[7] Moss, R. H., Edmonds, J. A., Hibbard, K. A., Manning, M. R., Rose, S. K., van
Vuuren, D. P., Carter, T. R., Emori, S., Kaimuma, M., Kram, T., Meehl, G. A.,
Mitchell, J. F. B., Nakicenovic, N., Roahi, K., Smith, S. J., Stouffer, R. J., Thomson,
A. M., Weyant, J. P. and Wilbanks, T. J., 2010. The next generation of scenarios for
climate change research and assessment. Nature, 463, 747-756.
[8] De Stadio, B. T., Hill, D. K., Kleinhans, J. M., Nibbelink, N. P. and Magnuson, J. J.,
1996. Potential effects of global climate change on small north-temperate lakes:
Physics, fish, and plankton. Limnol. Oceanogr., 41, 1136-1149.
[9] George, G., Hurley, M. and Hewitt, D., 2007. The impact of climate change on the
physical characteristics of the larger lakes in the English Lake District.
Freshwater Biology, 52, 1647-1666.
[10] Sato, T., Kimura, F. and Kitoh, A., 2007. Projection of global warming onto regional
precipitation over Mongolia using a regional climate model. J. of Hydrol., 333,
144-154.
[11] Watanabe, M., Suzuki, T., O'ishi, R., Komuro, Y., Watanabe, S., Emori, S.,
86 ➨ 3 ❶ ᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண Takemura, T., Chikira, M., Ogura, T., Sekiguchi, M., Takata, K., Yamazaki, D.,
Yokohata, T., Nozawa, T., Hasumi, H., Tatebe, H. and Kimoto, M., 2010. Improved
climate simulation by MIROC5: mean states, variability, and climate sensitivity. J.
Climate, 23, 6312-6335.
[12] Hashino, T., Bradley, A. A. and Schwartz, S. S., 2007. Evaluation of bias-correction
methods for ensemble streamflow volume forecast. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11,
939-950.
[13] Ines, A. V. and Hansen, J. W., 2006. Bias correction of daily GCM rainfall for crop
simulation studies. Agricultural and forest meteorology, 138, 44-53.
[14] Baigorria, G. A., Jones, J. W., Shin, D. W., Mishra, A. and O’Brien, J. J., 2007.
Assessing uncertainties in crop model simulations using daily bias-corrected
Regional Circulation Model outputs. Climate Research, 34, 211-217.
[15] Takeuchi, K., Ao, T. and Ishidaira, H., 1999. Introduction of block-wise use of
TOPMODEL
and
Muskingum-Cunge
method
for
the
hydroenvironmental
simulation of a large ungauged basin. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 44, 633-646.
[16] Takeuchi, K., Hapuarachchi, P., Zhou, M., Ishidaira, H. and Magome, J., 2008. A
BTOP model to extend TOPMODEL for distributed hydrological simulation of large
basins. Hydrol. Process., 22, 3236-3251.
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Optimization for Conceptual Rainfall-runoff Models. Water Resources Research, 28,
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[18] ⲨᕝỈ⣔ࡢὶᇦཬࡧἙᕝࡢᴫせ(᱌)㸪2007㸪ᅜᅵ஺㏻┬Ἑᕝᒁ.
[19] Spillman, C. M., Imberger, J., Hamilton, D. P., Hipsey, M. R. and Romero, J. R.,
2007. Modelling the effects of Po River discharge, internal nutrient cycling and
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[21]▮ᓥၨ㸪ྜྷᕝᰤ㸪▼㯮₶, 2006. 㑅ᢥྲྀỈ᪉ᘧࡀࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢ㛗ᮇ࣭▷ᮇࡢỈ㉁ಖ඲࡟
୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪࡟㛵ࡍࡿ◊✲㸪ỈᕤᏛㄽᩥ㞟㸪➨ 50 ᕳ㸪1375-1380.
87
➨ 4 ❶ Ẽೃኚື࡟㐺ᛂࡋࡓࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ
㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛ࡟ࡼࡿỈ㉁ྥୖ᪉ἲࡢ᳨ウ
4.1 ᴫㄝ
㏆ᖺ㸪Ẽೃኚື࡟ࡼࡿᖸࡤࡘࡸ኱㞵㢖ᗘࡢቑຍ㸪Ἑᕝὶ㔞ࡢῶᑡࡸቑຍ㸪ࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụཬ
ࡧ†἟ࡢỈ఩ኚ໬࡜Ỉ㉁ᝏ໬ࡀ⏕ࡌ㸪ࡑࢀ࡟ࡼࡿỈ㈨※ࡢ㔞࣭㉁ⓗ࡞ၥ㢟ࡀ㔜せ࡞♫఍࡟
ၥ㢟࡟࡞ࡗ࡚ࡁ࡚࠸ࡿ[1]㸬ࡑࡇ࡛㸪Ẽೃኚື࡟క࠺㝆Ỉ㔞ࡢኚ໬࡜ࡑࢀ࡟ࡼࡿὶᇦ࡛ࡢὶ
ฟ㔞ࡸἙᕝὶ㔞ࡢኚ໬࡟㛵ࡍࡿ◊✲ࡀ㐍ࢇ࡛࠸ࡿࡀ[2]㸪Ỉ㈨※ࡢ☜ಖ࡜ࡋ࡚኱ࡁ࡞ᙺ๭ࢆ
ᢸࡗ࡚࠸ࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡟ᑐࡍࡿྠᵝࡢ◊✲ࡣᑡ࡞࠸㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ከࡃࡢࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡛タ⨨࣭㐠
⏝ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛ࡜ࣇ࢙ࣥࢫ࡞࡝ࡢỈ㉁ಖ඲᪋タ࡟ᑐࡋ࡚㸪ᑗ᮶ࡢẼೃኚື࡟㐺
ᛂࡋࡓ᪂ࡓ࡞㐠⏝᪉ἲࡢ᳨ウࡀᚲせ࡛࠶ࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬౛࠼ࡤ㸪㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛࡣᨺὶỈ
ࡢỈ 㸪⃮ᗘ࡞࡝ࡢỈ㉁ࢆไᚚࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿࡀ㸪ࡑࡢຠᯝࡣࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᆅᙧ㸪Ỉᩥ
᮲௳㸪⃮ỈⓎ⏕㔞㸪᪋タࡢ఩⨨࣭ᵓ㐀࡜㐠⏝᪉ἲ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚␗࡞ࡿ㸬≉࡟㸪ྲྀỈỈ῝ࡢኚ໬
࡟క࠺㈓ỈụෆࡢỈ⌮Ꮫⓗ࡞Ỉᚠ⎔ࡢኚ໬ࡣ㸪ὶධᅵ◁ࡸᰤ㣴ሷࡢ㍺㏦࡜ᣑᩓ࡟ࡶᙳ㡪ࢆ
୚࠼ࡿ[3]㸬ࡑࡢࡓࡵ㸪Ẽೃኚື࡟క࠺ᑗ᮶ࡢࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡬ࡢὶධ㔞㸪㧗⃮ᗘỈࡢⓎ⏕㢖ᗘ
࡜つᶍ㸪⸴㢮ᡂ㛗࡞࡝ࡢኚື࡟㛵ࡋ࡚⢭ᗘࡀ㧗࠸ண ࢆ⾜࠸㸪ࡑࢀ࡟ᑐᛂ࡛ࡁࡿ㑅ᢥྲྀỈ
タഛࡢ㐠⏝᪉ἲࡢ᳨ウࡀᚲせ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ᚑ᮶ࡢ◊✲࡜ࡋ࡚㸪ᇼ⏣ࡽ[4]ࡣᡂᒙᆺࢲ࣒࡟࠾ࡅࡿ
㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛࡢ㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡾỈ ㌍ᒙࢆపୗࡉࡏࡿࡇ࡜࡟ࡼࡗ࡚⃮Ỉ㛗ᮇ໬⌧㇟ࡢⓎ⏕ὶ㔞
ࢆ኱ࡁࡃࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁ㸪ࢥࣥࢪࢵࢺ㒊ࡢᨺὶタഛ࡜ేࡏ࡚⃮㉁ࡢ᪩ᮇ᤼㝖ࡶ࡛ࡁࡿࡇ࡜
ࢆ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟ࡋࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪▮ᓥࡽ[5]ࡣ␗㧗ྠ᫬㑅ᢥྲྀỈ࡟ࡼࡿỈ㉁ಖ඲ຠᯝࢆホ౯ࡋ㸪㛗ᮇ
㛫ࡢ⾲ᒙྲྀỈ࡟క࠺ Ỉᨺὶ࡟ࡼࡿୗὶἙᕝࡢ⏕ែ⣔࡟ᝏᙳ㡪ࢆ୚࠼ࡿྍ⬟ᛶࢆᣦ᦬ࡋࡓ㸬
୍᪉㸪␗㧗ྠ᫬ྲྀỈࢆ⾜ࡗࡓሙྜ㸪୍⯡ⓗ࡞ὶἣࡢᖺ࡛ࡣ෭࣭ Ỉᨺὶࡢ㑊ࡅࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛
ࡁࡿࡇ࡜ࢆ♧ࡋࡓ㸬∾㔝ࡽ[6]ࡣ㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛࡀᑟධࡉࢀࡓዟከᦶ†࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⾲ᒙᨺὶࡣ㸪
㖄┤᪉ྥࡢ᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥࡢᡂ㛗ྍ⬟⠊ᅖࢆᗈࡆ㸪ࡑࢀ࡟ࡼࡾ㏱᫂ᗘࡀቑຍࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࢆ
᫂ࡽ࠿࡟ࡋࡓ㸬
ᮏ◊✲࡛ࡣ㸪 ᬮ໬࡟క࠺Ỉ㔞࣭Ỉ㉁ࡢኚ໬ࡀᚰ㓄ࡉࢀࡿⲨᕝὶᇦࡢᾆᒣࢲ࣒࡟࠾࠸࡚㸪
ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ㔞࣭Ỉ㉁ࡢኚ໬ࢆண ࡍࡿ࡜࡜ࡶ࡟㸪㈓Ỉụ࡟タ⨨㐠⏝ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ㑅ᢥྲྀ
Ỉタഛࢆ⏝࠸ࡓỈ㉁ಖ඲ຠᯝ࡟ࡘ࠸᳨࡚ウࡍࡿ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛࡢ㐠⏝᪉ἲ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚
ࡣ㸪1)†ෆࡢ᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥ(Chl.a)ࡢቑṪ㸪2)෭࣭ Ỉᨺὶ㸪3)†ෆࡢሁ◁ၥ㢟㸪௨ୖ
ࡢ 3 ࡘࡢほⅬ࠿ࡽỈ㉁ၥ㢟ࡢᑐ⟇࡟╔┠ࡋࡓ᳨ウࢆ⾜࠺㸬
88 ➨ 4 ❶ Ẽೃኚື࡟㐺ᛂࡋࡓࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛ࡟ࡼࡿỈ㉁ྥୖ᪉ἲࡢ᳨ウ
4.2 ࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡜ୗὶἙᕝ࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ㉁ၥ㢟ࡢᴫせ
4.2.1 ᐩᰤ㣴໬ࡢᴫせ
ࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡟࠾࠸࡚ᰤ㣴ሷ㢮ࡢ⵳✚ࡀ㐍ࡳᰤ㣴ሷ⃰ᗘࡢẚ㍑ⓗ㧗࠸㈓Ỉụ࡟ኚ໬ࡍࡿࡇ
࡜࡟ࡼࡾ㸪⸛⸴㢮➼ࡢ᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥࡢ␗ᖖቑṪࡀⓎ⏕ࡋ㸪࢔࢜ࢥ➼࡟ࡼࡗ࡚Ỉ㠃ࡢ╔
Ⰽ⌧㇟ࡸỈ㐨⏝Ỉࡢ␗⮯࿡㞀ᐖ࡞࡝ࡀⓎ⏕ࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡛ᬒほࢆᦆ࠸Ỉฎ⌮ࢥࢫࢺࡢቑຍ࡞࡝
ࡢ⿕ᐖࢆཬࡰࡍ⌧㇟ࢆᐩᰤ㣴໬⌧㇟࡜࠸࠺㸬ࡲࡓ㸪OECD ࡛ࡣᖺᖹᆒ TP ࡜ Chl.a ⃰ᗘࢆ
ᇶ‽࡟ࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࢆᴟ㈋ᰤ㣴㸪㈋ᰤ㣴㸪୰ᰤ㣴㸪ᐩᰤ㣴㸪㐣ᰤ㣴ࡢ 5 ẁ㝵࡟ศ㢮ࡋࡓ(⾲
)[7]㸬ࡇࢀࢆᇶ‽࡟ᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࡢ㐣ཤ 10 ᖺ(2001~2010 ᖺ)࡟࠾࠸࡚ TP ࡜ Chl.a ࡢẖᖺᖹ
ᆒ⃰ᗘࢆㄪ࡭ࡿ࡜ TP ⃰ᗘࡢᇶ‽࡛ࡣ 10 ᖺ㛫ࡢᖹᆒ⃰ᗘ(0.012 mg/L)ࡣ୰ᰤ㣴ẁ㝵࡛࠶ࡾ㸪
⾲ 2(&' ࡢᐩᰤ㣴໬ࡢุᐃᇶ‽
ศ㢮
TP(mg/L)
&KODǍJ/
ᖺᖹᆒ್
ᖺᖹᆒ್
ᖺ᭱኱್
ᴟ㈋ᰤ㣴
ӌ0.004
ӌ0.1
ӌ2.5
㈋ᰤ㣴
ӌ0.01
ӌ2.5
ӌ8.0
୰ᰤ㣴
0.01~0.035
2.5~8.0
8.0~25.0
ᐩᰤ㣴
0.035~0.1
8.0~25.0
25.0~75.0
㐣ᰤ㣴
Ӎ0.1
Ӎ25.0
Ӎ75.0
⾲ ᾆᒣࢲ࣒࡟࠾ࡅࡿ㐣ཤ ᖺ㛫ࡢ 73 ࡜ &KOD ⃰ᗘࡢኚ໬
ᖺᗘ
TP(mg/L)
&KODǍJ/
ᖺᖹᆒ್
ᖺᖹᆒ್
ᖺ᭱኱್
2001
0.013
4.4
25.1
2002
0.010
3.3
9.1
2003
0.009
4.8
16.1
2004
0.012
4.6
10.9
2005
0.010
4.4
15.8
2006
0.010
5.4
13.9
2007
0.016
9.3
49.6
2008
0.014
4.7
11.0
2009
0.014
14.5
51.6
2010
0.010
3.8
8.2
ᖹᆒ
0.012
5.9
21.1
4.2 ࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡜ୗὶἙᕝ࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ㉁ၥ㢟ࡢᴫせ 89
Chl.a ⃰ᗘࡢᇶ‽࡛ࡣ 10 ᖺᖹᆒ⃰ᗘࡣ 5.9 ǍJ/㸪ẖᖺ᭱኱್ࡢᖹᆒ⃰ᗘࡣ 21.1 ǍJ/ ࡜࡞
ࡾ㸪Chl.a ⃰ᗘࢆᇶ‽ࡋ࡚ࡶ୰ᰤ㣴ẁ㝵࡛࠶ࡗࡓ(⾲ )㸬࡞࠾㸪2007 ᖺ࡜ 2009 ᖺࢆࡳࡿ
࡜ᖹᆒ್࡜᭱኱್ࡣᐩᰤ㣴ẁ㝵࡛࠶ࡗࡓ㸬10 ᖺ㛫ࡢᖹᆒⓗ࡟ホ౯ࡍࡿ࡜ᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࡣ୰ᰤ㣴
ࢲ࣒࡛࠶ࡿࡀ㸪᪥ᑕ(ග)㸪Ỉ ࡞࡝ࡢࢲ࣒≧ἣ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥࡢቑṪࡶࡳࡽࢀ
ࡓ㸬
4.2.2 ෭࣭ Ỉᨺὶࡢᴫせ
Ỉ ᡂᒙࡀᙧᡂࡉࢀࡿࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡛ࡣỈ ㌍ᒙࡼࡾࡶୗᒙࡢỈ ࡀ࠿࡞ࡾప࠸ࡓࡵ(ᾆ
ᒣࢲ࣒࡛ࡣ7~9Υ⛬ᗘ)㸪ୗᒙ࠿ࡽࡢྲྀỈࡀ⾜ࢃࢀࡓሙྜ࡟ࡣ㸪ୗ㒊ࡢ෭Ỉࢆᨺὶࡍࡿ⌧㇟
ࢆ෭Ỉᨺὶ࡜࠸࠺(ᅗ)㸬ࡲࡓ㸪࠶ࡿ⛬ᗘ௨ୖࡢ㈓Ỉ㔞ࢆᣢࡘࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡛ࡣ᫓࠿ࡽ⛅࡟
࠿ࡅ࡚Ỉ࡜࡜ࡶ࡟⇕㔞ࡶ⵳✚ࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡟࡞ࡿࡓࡵ㸪ἙᕝࡢỈ ࡀᚎࠎ࡟పୗࡍࡿኟᏘ௨ᚋ
࡟ᨺὶỈ ࡀὶධỈ ࢆୖᅇࡿ⌧㇟ࢆ Ỉᨺὶ࡜࠸࠺㸬ࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢᘓタ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚⮬↛ⓗ
࡞ὶࢀࡢ㐽᩿࡟ࡼࡿ෭࣭ ỈࡢᨺὶࡣୗὶἙᕝ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ㨶㢮ࡢ⏕ᜥ⎔ቃࡢኚ໬࡞࡝ࡢ⏕ែ
⣔࡟ᙳ㡪ࢆ୚࠼㸪ࡲࡓ㸪℺₅᫬ᮇ࡟ᨺὶࡉࢀࡿ෭Ỉ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚㎰స≀ࡢ⏕⫱㞀ᐖ࡞࡝ࡢᙳ㡪
ࡶ୚࠼ࡿࡓࡵ㸪㐺ษ࡞⟶⌮ࡸ㐠⏝᪉ἲࡀᚲせ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬
ᖹᡂ14ᖺᗘ࡟ᅜᅵ஺㏻┬࡛㛤ദࡉࢀࡓࠕࢲ࣒஦ᴗࡢࣉࣟࢢ࣒ࣛホ౯࡟㛵ࡍࡿ᳨ウጤဨ఍ࠖ
࡛ᐇ᪋ࡉࢀࡓ࢔ࣥࢣ࣮ࢺ࡛ࡣ㸪඲ᅜࡢ423ࢲ࣒࡟࠾࠸࡚㸪෭Ỉ⌧㇟ࡀࡳࡽࢀࡿࢲ࣒ࡣ7.6%࡟
ヱᙜࡍࡿ32ࢲ࣒࡛࠶ࡿ࡜ࡢ⤖ᯝࡀᚓࡽࢀࡓ[8]㸬ࡉࡽ࡟㸪ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿẼ ୖ᪼ࡢྍ⬟ᛶࡀ㧗
࠸ࡇ࡜࡟ࡼࡗ࡚Ỉ ࡢୖ᪼ࡶண᝿ࡉࢀࡿࡓࡵ㸪 Ỉᨺὶ࡟ࡼࡿᙳ㡪࡟ᑐࡍࡿᑐ⟇ࡀᚲせ࡛࠶
ࡿ㸬෭࣭ Ỉᨺὶ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣ㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛࡢ㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡾࢲ࣒ᘓタᚋࡶὶධỈ ࡜ྠ⛬ᗘࡢ
Ỉ ࡢỈࢆᨺὶࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀྍ⬟࡛࠶ࡿ㸬࡞࠾㸪⎔ቃᨺὶࡢᐇ᪋ࢆ๓ᥦ࡜ࡋࡓሙྜ㸪ྠၥ㢟
ࡀⓎ⏕ࡍࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡣ࠶ࡿࡀ㸪㑅ᢥྲྀỈ᪋タࡢ㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ၥ㢟ࡣ࠶ࡿ⛬ᗘゎᾘࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ࡜
⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬
ᅗ ෭࣭ Ỉᨺὶࡢᴫᛕᅗ
90 ➨ 4 ❶ Ẽೃኚື࡟㐺ᛂࡋࡓࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛ࡟ࡼࡿỈ㉁ྥୖ᪉ἲࡢ᳨ウ
4.2.3 ⃮Ỉ㛗ᮇ໬࡜ᅵ◁ሁ✚ࡢᴫせ
ࢲ࣒ࡀ࡞࠸⮬↛࡞Ἑᕝ࡛ࡣ㸪ฟỈ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚⃮ỈࡣⓎ⏕ࡍࡿࡀ㸪ฟỈࡀ⤊ࢃࡿ࡜㧗⃮ᗘࡢ
Ỉࡣ㏿ࡸ࠿࡟ὶࡉࢀࠊᖹᖖ᫬ࡢὶࢀ࡟ᡠࡿ㸬ࡋ࠿ࡋ࡞ࡀࡽ㸪ࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡟ฟỈࡀⓎ⏕ࡍࡿ
࡜⃮Ỉࡣࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụෆ࡟㈓␃ࡉࢀ㸪㧗⃮Ỉࡀ㛗࠸ᮇ㛫࡛ᨺὶ࡜ࢲ࣒†ෆ࡟ỿ㝆ࡍࡿ⌧㇟ࡀ
㉳ࡇࡿ㸬ࡇࢀࢆ⃮Ỉ㛗ᮇ໬࡜࠸࠺㸬ᅗ ࡟ࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡀ࡞࠸᫬࡜࠶ࡿ᫬ࡢୗὶἙᕝ࡟࠾
ࡅࡿ᫬㛫ⓗ࡞⃮ᗘ⃰ᗘࡢኚ໬ࢆ♧ࡋࡓ㸬ࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡀ࡞࠸᫬ࡢฟỈ࡟ࡼࡿ⃮Ỉࡢὶࢀࡣࣆ
࣮ࢡ್ࡲ࡛฿㐩ࡍࡿ࡜ࡍࡄῶᑡࡍࡿࣃࢱ࣮ࣥࡀࡳࡽࢀࡓࡀ㸪ࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡀ࠶ࡿ᫬ࡣࢲ࣒㈓
Ỉụࡀ࡞࠸᫬ࡼࡾࣆ࣮ࢡ್ࡣపࡃ㸪ࡑࡢ௨ᚋ㸪࠶ࡿ⛬ᗘ㧗࠸⃰ᗘࡢ⃮Ỉࡀ⥅⥆ᨺὶࡉࢀࡿ
ࡇ࡜ࡀ࠶ࡿ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ฟỈ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚ࢲ࣒ෆ࡟㈓␃ࡋࡓ⃮Ỉࡢ୍㒊ࡣࢲ࣒ෆ࡟ỿ㝆ࡉࢀࡿࡇ࡜࡟
ࡼࡾࢲ࣒ࡢ㈓Ỉᐜ㔞ࡀῶᑡࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࠶ࡿࡓࡵ㸪⃮Ỉࡢ᪩ᮇ᤼㝖ࡀ㔜せ࡞⟶⌮┠ⓗ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬
ᅗ ࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụࡢ᭷↓࡟ࡼࡿୗὶἙᕝ࡟࠾ࡅࡿฟỈ᫬ࡢ⃮ᗘ⃰ᗘࡢኚ໬
4.3 㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛࢆ⪃៖ࡋࡓᑗ᮶ࡢỈ㉁ኚ໬ண 4.3.1 㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛࡢ㐠⏝ࢩࢼࣜ࢜ࡢタᐃ
㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛ(௨ୗ㸪SWS ࡜␎)ࡢྲྀỈỈ῝ࡢ㐪࠸࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒†ෆ࡜ୗὶἙᕝࡢỈ⎔ቃ࡟
୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪ࢆ᳨ウࡍࡿࡓࡵ࡟㸪ࡲࡎ㸪ᅜෆࡢከࡃࡢࢲ࣒࡛㐠⏝ࡉࢀ࡚࠸ࡿ⾲ᒙྲྀỈ[9]ࢆ⪃
៖ࡍࡿ㸬⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ῝ 2~4 m 㛫࡛ᖖ᫬ྲྀỈࢆ⾜࠺㐠⏝ࢆࡑࢀࡒࢀࢣ࣮ࢫ 0 ࡜ࢣ
࣮ࢫ 1 ࡟タᐃࡋ㸪ࡑࢀࡽࢆᑐ↷⩌࡜ࡋࡓ㸬ᐇ㦂⩌࡟ࡘ࠸࡚㸪ᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࡣୗὶἙᕝ࡛Ỉ㐨⏝
ỈࡢྲྀỈࡀ⾜ࢃࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࡓࡵ㸪ίỈሙ࡟ᝏᙳ㡪ࢆ୚࠼ࡿ Chl.a ⃰ᗘࡢపῶࡀᚲせ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬
ᚑࡗ࡚㸪⾲ᒙỈࡼࡾ Chl.a ࡢ⃰ᗘࡀపࡃ㸪Ỉ ࡶపࡍࡂ࡞࠸ࡇ࡜ࡀண᝿ࡉࢀࡿỈ῝ 6~8 m
㛫࠿ࡽྲྀỈࡍࡿ㐠⏝ࢆࢣ࣮ࢫ 2 ࡜ࡋࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ฟỈ࡟ࡼࡿ⃮Ỉࡀ㈏ධࡍࡿỈ῝࠿ࡽྲྀỈࡍ
ࡿ࡜⃮Ỉࡢ᪩ᮇ᤼㝖ࡀྍ⬟࡛࠶ࡿࡇ࡜࠿ࡽ㸪ࢩ࣑࣮ࣗࣞࢩࣙࣥ࡟ࡼࡿ⃮Ỉ㈏ධ῝ࡉࢆཧ⪃
࡟㸪Ỉ῝ 10~12 m 㛫࠿ࡽྲྀỈࡍࡿ㐠⏝ࢆࢣ࣮ࢫ 3 ࡜ࡋࡓ㸬ࡋ࠿ࡋ࡞ࡀࡽ㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ 3 ࡣ෭Ỉ
ᨺὶࡀண᝿ࡉࢀࡿࡓࡵ㸪ࡉࡽ࡟㸪4 ᭶~11 ᭶ࡣ෭Ỉᨺὶ࡜㧗⃰ᗘࡢ Chl.a ᨺὶࢆ㜵ࡄࡓࡵ
4.3 㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛࢆ⪃៖ࡋࡓᑗ᮶ࡢỈ㉁ኚ໬ண 91
࡟Ỉ῝ 4~6 m 㛫࠿ࡽྲྀỈࡋ㸪ᚠ⎔ᮇ࡛࠶ࡿ 12 ᭶~3 ᭶ࡲ࡛ࡣ඲ᒙ࡟࠾࠸୍࡚ᐃỈ ࡛࠶ࡿ
ࡓࡵ⾲ᒙྲྀỈ(2~4 m)ࢆ⾜࠺ࢣ࣮ࢫ 4 ࢆタᐃࡋࡓ㸬ࡓࡔࡋ㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ 4 ࡣ㸪⃮ᗘࡢపῶࡶᅗ
ࡿࡓࡵ㸪ὥỈ᫬࡟ࢲ࣒ὶධᆅⅬࡢ SS ⃰ᗘࡀἙᕝ⎔ቃᇶ‽ࡢ 25 mg/L ࢆ㉸㐣ࡋࡓ᫬࠿ࡽ㸪
෌ࡧࡑࢀ௨ୗ࡟పୗࡋࡓ 15 ᫬㛫ᚋ(ฟỈ᫬࡟ὶධ㒊ࡢ SS ࡀ SWS ࡲ࡛࡟฿㐩ࡍࡿ᫬㛫)ࡲ
࡛ࡣ⃮Ỉࡢ㈏ධỈ῝࡜ண᝿ࡉࢀࡿỈ῝ 10~12 m 㛫࠿ࡽྲྀỈࡍࡿ≉ู㐠⏝ࢆᐇ᪋ࡋࡓ(⾲
)㸬
⾲ ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿ 6:6 ࡢ㐠⏝ࢩࢼࣜ࢜
SWS 㐠⏝᮲௳
⌧ᅾẼೃ
ࢣ࣮ࢫ 0
ᑐ㇟㡯┠
Ỉ῝ 2~4 m 㛫࠿ࡽྲྀỈ
ᑐ↷⩌
ࢣ࣮ࢫ 1
Ỉ῝ 2~4 m 㛫࠿ࡽྲྀỈ
ࢣ࣮ࢫ 2
Ỉ῝ 6~8 m 㛫࠿ࡽྲྀỈ
Chl.a
ࢣ࣮ࢫ 3
Ỉ῝ 10~12 m 㛫࠿ࡽྲྀỈ
SS
ᑗ᮶Ẽೃ
12~3 ᭶Ỉ῝ 2~4 m 㛫࠿ࡽྲྀỈ
ࢣ࣮ࢫ 4
4~11 ᭶Ỉ῝ 4~6 m 㛫࠿ࡽྲྀỈ
ὶධ SS•PJ/+15 ᫬㛫
෭࣭ Ỉ㸪
Chl.a㸪SS
㸫Ỉ῝ 10~12 m 㛫࠿ࡽྲྀỈ
4.3.2 ࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ㉁ኚ໬᳨ウ
(1) 6:6 ࡢ㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿỈ㉁ኚ໬
ࢣ࣮ࢫ 0 ࡜ࢣ࣮ࢫ 1 ࡜࡜ࡶ࡟ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿ SWS ࡢ㐠⏝᪉ἲࡢ㐪࠸࡟ࡼࡿỈ㉁ண ࢆ⾜
࠸㸪ᨺὶᆅⅬ࠿ࡽ⣙ 500 m ୖὶ࡟఩⨨ࡋࡓࢲ࣒ᇶ‽Ⅼ࡟࠾࠸࡚⾲ᒙ(Ỉ῝ 0.5 m)㸪୰ᒙ(Ỉ
㠃࡜ EL. 308.0 m ࡢᖹᆒỈ῝)㸪ᗏᒙ(EL. 308.0 m)ࡢỈ ࡸỈ㉁㡯┠࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢ
Ỉ㉁ኚ໬ࡢ᳨ウࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ㸬ࡲࡎ㸪⾲ᒙ࡟࠾࠸࡚ᖹᆒỈ ࡣྛࢣ࣮ࢫ࡛ࡑࢀࡒࢀ 16.8Υ㸪
18.0Υ㸪18.6Υ㸪18.0Υ࡜࡞ࡾ㸪Ỉ῝ 10~12 m 㛫࠿ࡽྲྀỈࡍࡿࢣ࣮ࢫ 3 ࡛᭱ࡶ㧗࠸Ỉ ࡛
࠶ࡗࡓ(ᅗ ୖ)㸬ࡇࢀࡣ㸪⾲ᒙ௜㏆࠿ࡽྲྀỈࡍࢀࡤ⾲ᒙࡢᬮ࠿࠸Ỉࡀᨺὶࡉࢀࡿࡢ࡟ᑐ
ࡋ㸪ࡼࡾ῝࠸Ỉ῝࠿ࡽྲྀỈࡍࢀࡤ⾲Ỉᒙࡀ༑ศ࡟ᬮࡵࡽࢀ㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ 3 ࡛㧗࠸Ỉ ࡀࡳࡽࢀ
ࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪୰ᒙ࡜ᗏᒙ࡛ࡣࢣ࣮ࢫẖ࡟኱ࡁ࡞ᕪࡣࡳࡽࢀ࡞࠿ࡗࡓ㸬Ỉ ࡜㏫┦㛵㛵ಀ࡛࠶
ࡿ⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲ࡣỈ ࡀప࠸ࢣ࣮ࢫ 1 ࡛᭱ࡶ㧗࠸⃰ᗘࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬ࡇࢀࡣ㸪Ỉ ࡟ࡼࡿ㣬࿴
ᗘࡢᕪ࡛࠶ࡾ㸪ࡍ࡭࡚ࡢᒙ࡜ࢣ࣮ࢫ࡛ 3 mg/L ௨ୗࡢ㈋㓟⣲⌧㇟ࡣ࡞࠿ࡗࡓ(ᅗ ୰)㸬SS
ࡣ 3 ࡘࡢᒙ࡛ࢣ࣮ࢫ㛫࡟኱ࡁ࡞ᕪࡣࡳࡽࢀ࡞࠿ࡗࡓࡀ㸪ྲྀỈỈ῝ࡢኚ໬࡟ࡼࡿὶධ SS ࡢ
92 ➨ 4 ❶ Ẽೃኚື࡟㐺ᛂࡋࡓࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛ࡟ࡼࡿỈ㉁ྥୖ᪉ἲࡢ᳨ウ
ᅗ 6:6 ࡢ㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿᑗ᮶ࡢ⾲ᒙ࣭୰ᒙ࣭ᗏᒙࡢỈ ࣭⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲࣭66 ࡢኚ໬
ᅗ 6:6 ࡢ㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿᑗ᮶ࡢ⾲ᒙ࣭୰ᒙ࣭ᗏᒙࡢ 71࣭73࣭&KOD ࡢኚ໬
4.3 㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛࢆ⪃៖ࡋࡓᑗ᮶ࡢỈ㉁ኚ໬ண 93
㈏ධỈ῝ࡢኚືࡀ⏕ࡌ㸪᪥ᖹᆒ⃰ᗘࡢ᭱኱್࡟ࡘ࠸࡚⾲ᒙ-୰ᒙࡢᕪࢆẚ㍑ࡍࡿ࡜ࢣ࣮ࢫ 1
ࡣ 39 mg/L㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ 2 ࡣ 176 mg/L㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ 3 ࡣ 672 mg/L㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ 4 ࡣ 544 mg/L ⛬ᗘ୰
ᒙ࡛㧗࠸⃰ᗘࡀࡳࡽࢀࡓ(ᅗ ୗ)㸬TN ࡢ⾲ᒙ࡟࠾࠸࡚ᖹᆒ⃰ᗘࡣ 0.81~0.83 mg/L ࡢ⠊
ᅖ࡛࠶ࡾ㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ㛫ࡢᕪࡣᑡ࡞࠸ࡀ㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ 1㸼ࢣ࣮ࢫ 4㸼ࢣ࣮ࢫ 2㸼ࢣ࣮ࢫ 3 ࡢ㡰࡟㧗ࡃ
࡞ࡾ㸪ྲྀỈỈ῝ࡀ῝࠸࡯࡝ప࠸⃰ᗘ࡛࠶ࡗࡓ(ᅗ ୖ)㸬ࡲࡓ㸪୰ᒙ࡜ᗏᒙཬࡧ TP ࡢ⾲ᒙ㸪
୰ᒙ㸪ᗏᒙ࡛ࡶྠࡌኚືࣃࢱ࣮ࣥࡀࡳࡽࢀࡓ(ᅗ ୰)㸬ࡇࢀࡣ㸪㧗⃰ᗘࡢ᭷ᶵ≀࡜ᰤ㣴
ሷࡀ⃮Ỉࡢྠࡌᒙ࡟㈏ධࡍࡿࡓࡵ㸪㧗⃮Ỉᒙࡢ TN ࡜ TP ࡢ⃰ᗘࡀ㧗ࡃ࡞ࡗࡓ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀ
ࡿ㸬Chl.a ࡣ⃰ᗘࡀ᭱ࡶ㧗࠸⾲ᒙ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚⾲ᒙྲྀỈ(2~4 m)ࢆ⾜ࡗࡓࢣ࣮ࢫ 1㸪ὥỈᮇ㛫ࢆ
㝖ࡃ Chl.a ࡀᡂ㛗࡛ࡁࡿᮇ㛫࡛࠶ࡿ 4~11 ᭶࡟ 4~6 m 㛫࠿ࡽྲྀỈࡋࡓࢣ࣮ࢫ 4 ࡢண ࡛㧗
࠸⃰ᗘࡀࡳࡽࢀࡓ(ᅗ ୗ)㸬Chl.a ࡢᡂ㛗ࡣỈ ࡜ᐦ᥋࡞㛵ಀࡀ࠶ࡾ㸪⾲ᒙ࡟࠾࠸࡚ᖹᆒ
Ỉ ࡣࢣ࣮ࢫ 1(16.8Υ)ࡼࡾࢣ࣮ࢫ 3(18.6Υ)࡛ 1.8Υ㧗ࡃ㸪᪥ᖹᆒ᭱㧗Ỉ ࡶࢣ࣮ࢫ 3 ࡛
2.3Υ㧗ࡃ࡞ࡾ㸪Chl.a ࡢᡂ㛗࡟᭱㐺࡞Ỉ ⠊ᅖࢆ㉸࠼ᡂ㛗ࡀࡋ࡟ࡃࡃ࡞ࡿࡓࡵ㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ 3
ࡢ Chl.a ⃰ᗘࡀ᭱ࡶపࡃ࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬
(2) 6:6 ࡢ㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿỈ ᡂᒙࡢኚ໬
SWS ࡟ࡼࡿྲྀỈỈ῝ࡢ㐪࠸࡟ࡼࡿỈ ᡂᒙࡢኚ໬ࢆ᳨ウࡍࡿࡓࡵ㸪ᑗ᮶࡟࠾࠸࡚෤
(12~2 ᭶ࡢᖹᆒ)࡜ኟ(6~8 ᭶ࡢᖹᆒ)࡟࠾ࡅࡿẖᖺࡢỈ 㖄┤ศᕸࢆᅗ ࡜ᅗ ࡟♧ࡋ
ࡓ㸬⤖ᯝࢆࡳࡿ࡜ᚠ⎔ᮇ࡛࠶ࡿ෤࡟ࡣྛࢣ࣮ࢫ࡟࠾࠸࡚⾲ᒙࡣࡑࢀࡒࢀ 8.5Υ㸪8.6Υ㸪9.1Υ㸪
8.8Υ㸪୰ᒙࡣ 8.0Υ㸪8.0Υ㸪8.1Υ㸪8.1Υ㸪పᒙࡣ 6.1Υ㸪6.1Υ㸪6.3Υ㸪6.2Υ࡜࡞ࡾ㸪
ࢣ࣮ࢫ 3 ࡟࠾࠸࡚⾲ᒙ࡜ᗏᒙࡢỈ ᕪࡀ㧗࠿ࡗࡓ㸬ኟ࡟࠾࠸࡚⾲ᒙ࡜ᗏᒙ࡛ࡢỈ ᕪࢆẚ
㍑ࡍࡿ࡜ࢣ࣮ࢫ 1 ࡣ 19.7Υ(⾲ᒙ25.7Υ㸪ᗏᒙ6.0Υ)㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ 2 ࡣ 22.7Υ(⾲ᒙ28.7Υ㸪
ᗏᒙ6.0Υ)㸪
ࢣ࣮ࢫ 3 ࡣ 23.3Υ(⾲ᒙ29.4Υ㸪
ᗏᒙ6.1Υ)㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ 4 ࡣ 22.1Υ(⾲ᒙ28.2Υ㸪
ᗏᒙ6.1Υ)࡜࡞ࡾ㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ 3 ࡛ࡼࡾỈ ᕪࡀ㧗ࡃ㸪ྲྀỈỈ῝ࡀ῝࠸࡯࡝Ỉ ㌍ᒙࡀ◚ቯࡉ
ࢀ࡟ࡃࡃ࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀศ࠿ࡗࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ẖᖺ 8 ᭶ࡢỈ ࡢᖹᆒ㖄┤ศᕸࢆẚ㍑ࡍࡿ࡜㸪ࢣ࣮
ࢫ 0 ࡢ㉥⥺࡛♧ࡍ 1 ᖺࢆ㝖࠸࡚ࡣ㸪⾲Ỉᒙ࡟࠾࠸࡚⌧ᅾࡼࡾᑗ᮶ࡢᖺࡈ࡜ࡢኚືᖜࡀ኱ࡁ
ࡃ࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ(ᅗ )㸬ࡇࢀࡣ㸪⾲ᒙỈ ࡢᙳ㡪ࢆᙉࡃཷࡅࡿ Chl.a ࡟࠾࠸࡚㸪
ẖᖺࡢࡼ࠺࡟ඃ༨✀ࡢኚ໬ࡸ᪂ࡓ࡞⸴㢮✀ࡢⓎ⏕࡞࡝ࡀ㉳ࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡀ࠶ࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬
94 ➨ 4 ❶ Ẽೃኚື࡟㐺ᛂࡋࡓࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛ࡟ࡼࡿỈ㉁ྥୖ᪉ἲࡢ᳨ウ
ᅗ 6:6 㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿᑗ᮶ࡢ෤~ ᭶࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ ࡢ㖄┤ศᕸ
4.3 㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛࢆ⪃៖ࡋࡓ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶ࡢỈ㉁ኚ໬ண 95
ᅗ 6:6 㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿᑗ᮶ࡢኟ~ ᭶࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ ࡢ㖄┤ศᕸ
96 ➨ 4 ❶ Ẽೃኚື࡟㐺ᛂࡋࡓࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛ࡟ࡼࡿỈ㉁ྥୖ᪉ἲࡢ᳨ウ
ᅗ ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿྛᖺࡢ㸶᭶࡟࠾ࡅࡿ 6:6 㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿỈ ࡢᖹᆒ㖄┤ศᕸ
(3) 6:6 ࡢ㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿ⃮Ỉᒙࡢኚ໬
⌧ᅾࢣ࣮ࢫ 0࡜ᑗ᮶ࢣ࣮ࢫ 1࡟࠾ࡅࡿSSࡣ㸪ὶධ㔞࠿ࡽ⟬ฟࡋࡓL-Qᘧࡢᙳ㡪࡛㸪ὶ
ධ㔞ࡀከ࠸ᑗ᮶࡟ᖹᆒⓗ࡟㧗࠸⃰ᗘࡀࡳࡽࢀࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿSSࡢ㖄┤ศᕸࡣ㸪Ỉ
ࡢୖ᪼࡟క࠺ཌ࠸⾲Ỉᒙࡢࡓࡵ㸪ฟỈ᫬࡟ὶධࡍࡿ⃮Ỉᒙࡀ⌧ᅾࡼࡾୗᒙ࠿ࡽὶධࡋ㸪
⃮Ỉࡢ㈏ධᖜࡀᗈࡀࡿࣃࢱ࣮ࣥࡀࡉࢀࡓ(ᅗ )㸬ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿSWS㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿ⃮Ỉᣲື
ࡢ㐪࠸ࢆࡳࡿࡓࡵ㸪2 ࡘࡢฟỈつᶍ(ࣆ࣮ࢡὶධ㔞179 m 3/s㸪302 m3/s)ࢆ⪃៖ࡋ㸪⃮ᗘࡢ
ࣆ࣮ࢡ௜㏆᫬้࡟ࡘ࠸࡚⃮ᗘ࡜Ỉ ࡢ㖄┤ศᕸࢆᅗ ࡟♧ࡋࡓ㸬ࡲࡎ㸪ὶධ㔞 179 m3/s
ࡢฟỈ(ᅗ ୖ)࡛ࡣ㸪ྛࢣ࣮ࢫ࡛Ỉ ㌍ᒙ࡟ἢࡗ࡚⃮Ỉࡀ㈏ධࡋ㸪Ỉ ㌍ᒙ௜㏆࡟⃮ᗘ
ࡢࣆ࣮ࢡࡀࡳࡽࢀࡓ㸬ࡉࡽ࡟㸪10~12 m㛫࠿ࡽྲྀỈࡍࡿࢣ࣮ࢫ 3 ࡣ㸪ࡍ࡭࡚ࡢࢣ࣮ࢫ࡛᭱
ࡶ῝࠸Ỉ῝ࡢỈ ㌍ᒙ(⣙ 12 m)ࢆ⏕ࡌ⾲Ỉᒙࡀཌ࠸ࡓࡵ㸪ࢲ࣒†࡟㈏ධࡋࡓ⃮Ỉࡢᖜࡀ㖄
┤᪉ྥ࡟ࡼࡾᗈࡀࡿ⌧㇟ࡀࡳࡽࢀࡓ㸬࡞࠾㸪300 m3/s௨ୖࡢฟỈ(ᅗ ୗ)࡛ࡣฟỈࡢ௨๓
ࡣỈ ㌍ᒙࡀᏑᅾࡍࡿࡀ㸪ฟỈⓎ⏕ᚋࡣࡑࢀࡀ◚ቯࡉࢀ㸪㈓Ỉụࡢ࡯ࡰ඲ᒙ࡟⃮Ỉࡀᗈࡀ
ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ☜ㄆ࡛ࡁࡓ㸬ࡇࡢ⤖ᯝ࠿ࡽࡣ㸪Ỉ ㌍ᒙࡀ◚ቯࡉࢀࡿฟỈつᶍ࡛ࡣ㸪ྲྀỈỈ῝ࡀ
ࡼࡾ῝࠸ࢣ࣮ࢫ 3 ࡜ࢣ࣮ࢫ 4 ࡛㛗᫬㛫ࡢ⃮ỈྲྀỈࡀྍ⬟࡛࠶ࡾ㸪◚ቯࡉࢀ࡞࠸つᶍࡢฟỈ
࡛ࡣ㸪ὸ࠸Ỉ῝࡛ࡢྲྀỈ࡜㧗⃮ᗘᒙ࠿ࡽྲྀỈࢆ⾜࠺ᙎຊⓗ㐠⏝ࡀ⃮Ỉࡢ᤼ฟ࡟ຠᯝⓗ࡛࠶
ࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬
4.3 㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛࢆ⪃៖ࡋࡓᑗ᮶ࡢỈ㉁ኚ໬ண 97
ᅗ ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ 㖄┤ศᕸ࡜⃮Ỉᒙࡢᣲື
ᅗ 6:6 㐠⏝࡜ฟỈつᶍ࡟ࡼࡿ⃮Ỉ࡜Ỉ ࡢ㖄┤ศᕸ
98 ➨ 4 ❶ Ẽೃኚື࡟㐺ᛂࡋࡓࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛ࡟ࡼࡿỈ㉁ྥୖ᪉ἲࡢ᳨ウ
4.3.2 ୗὶἙᕝ࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ㉁ኚ໬᳨ウ
ࢲ࣒㈓ỈụࡢྲྀỈỈ῝࡜Ỉ㉁ࡢᙳ㡪ࢆᙉࡃཷࡅࡿୗὶἙᕝ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿ
SWS ࡢ㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿỈ㉁ኚ໬ࡢ᳨ウࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ㸬ࡲࡎ㸪⌧ᅾ࡟࠾࠸࡚ࢣ࣮ࢫẖࡢ 9 ᖺ㛫ࡢᖹᆒ
ᨺὶỈ ࡣࢣ࣮ࢫ 1 ࡛ 13.1Υ㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ 2 ࡛ 11.2Υ㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ 3 ࡛ 10.4Υ㸪ࢣ࣮4 ࡛ 12.0Υ
࡜࡞ࡾ㸪ྲྀỈỈ῝ࡀὸ࠸ࢣ࣮ࢫ 1(2~4 m)࡛᭱ࡶ㧗࠸ᨺὶỈ ࡛࠶ࡗࡓ(ᅗ ᕥୖ)㸬⁐Ꮡ
㓟⣲ࡢᖹᆒ⃰ᗘࡣྛࢣ࣮ࢫ࡛ࡑࢀࡒࢀ 10.0 mg/L㸪10.1 mg/L㸪10.2 mg/L㸪10.0 mg/L ࡜
࡞ࡾ㸪ࡍ࡭࡚ࡢࢣ࣮ࢫ࡛኱ࡁ࡞ᕪࡣࡳࡽࢀ࡞࠿ࡗࡓ(ᅗ ᕥ୰)㸬SS ࡢ 9 ᖺ㛫ࡢᖹᆒ⃰
ᗘࡣࢣ࣮ࢫ 1 ࡛ 25.2 mg/L㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ 2 ࡛ 26.1 mg/L㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ 3 ࡛ 28.7 mg/L㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ 4 ࡛
28.8 mg/L ࡜࡞ࡾ㸪㏻ᖖ 10~12 m ࡜ὥỈ᫬ࡢ 10~12 m 㛫࠿ࡽྲྀỈࡍࡿࢣ࣮ࢫ 3 ࡜ 4 ࡛㧗
࠸ᨺὶ⃰ᗘࡀࡳࡽࢀࡓ㸬ࡇࢀࡣ㸪Ỉ ศᕸ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚⃮Ỉᒙࡀ୰ᒙ࡟ศᕸࡍࡿࡓࡵ㸪ࡑࡢ㏆
ࡃ࠿ࡽྲྀỈࡍࡿࢣ࣮ࢫ 3 ࡜ 4 ࡛㧗࠸⃰ᗘࡀࡳࡽࢀࡓ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ(ᅗ ᕥୗ)㸬TN ࡣྛ
ࢣ࣮ࢫ࡛ᖹᆒ 0.81~0.82 mg/L㸪TP ࡣྛࢣ࣮ࢫ࡛ᖹᆒ 0.016 mg/L ࡜࡞ࡾ㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ㛫ࡢ኱ࡁ
࡞ᕪࡣࡳࡽࢀ࡞࠿ࡗࡓ㸬୍⯡ⓗ࡟Ỉ㠃ࡀ୍␒㧗ࡃ㸪୰ᒙ࡜ᗏᒙ࡟⾜ࡃ࡯࡝⃰ᗘࡀపࡃ࡞ࡿ
Chl.a ࡣỈ῝࡟ࡼࡿỈ ศᕸ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚㖄┤ศᕸࡀ␗࡞ࡿࡓࡵ㸪Ỉ㠃࡜᭱ࡶ㏆࠸ࢣ࣮ࢫ 1 ࡛
ᖹᆒ⃰ᗘࡣ 1.54 ǍJ/㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ 2 ࡣ 0.69 ǍJ/㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ 3 ࡣ 0.47 ǍJ/㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ 4 ࡣ 0.92 ǍJ/
࡜࡞ࡾ㸪ྲྀỈỈ῝ࡀ୍␒ὸ࠸ࢣ࣮ࢫ 1 ࡛᭱ࡶ㧗ࡃ㸪
Chl.a ࡢᡂ㛗ࡀࡼࡃᡂࡾ❧ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ 4~11
᭶(ὥỈ᫬ࡣ㝖እ)࡟ 4~6 m 㛫࠿ࡽྲྀỈࡍࡿࢣ࣮ࢫ 4 ࡛㧗࠸ᨺὶ⃰ᗘࡀࡳࡽࢀࡓ(ᅗ ྑ
ୗ)㸬
ᅗ 6:6 ࡢ㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿᑗ᮶ࡢୗὶἙᕝࡢỈ ࡜Ỉ㉁ኚ໬
4.4 Ỉ㉁ၥ㢟࡟╔┠ࡋࡓ᳨ウ 99
4.4 Ỉ㉁ၥ㢟࡟╔┠ࡋࡓ᳨ウ
4.4.1 ᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥ&KODࡢቑṪၥ㢟
᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥቑṪ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣ㸪᪥ᖹᆒ Chl.a ⃰ᗘࡀ 20 ǍJ/ ௨ୖࢆ㉸࠼ࡿ᪥ᩘ࡜ࡑ
ࢀࡢ㐃⥆᪥ᩘ࡟╔┠ࡋ࡚ホ౯ࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ㸬SWS ࡢ㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿᑗ᮶ࡢࢣ࣮ࢫẖࡢ᪥ᖹᆒ Chl.a
⃰ᗘ࡟࠾࠸࡚ 20 ǍJ/ ௨ୖ㉸࠼ࡿ᪥ᩘࢆㄪ࡭ࡿ࡜㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ 1 ࡛ 66 ᪥㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ 2 ࡛ 44 ᪥㸪
ࢣ࣮ࢫ 3 ࡛ 17 ᪥㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ 4 ࡛ 47 ᪥࡜࡞ࡗࡓ (ᅗ )㸬⾲ᒙྲྀỈࢆ⾜࠺ࢣ࣮ࢫ 1 ࡢ Chl.a
⃰ᗘࡀ᭱ࡶ㧗ࡃ㸪῝࠸Ỉ῝࠿ࡽྲྀỈࡍࡿࢣ࣮ࢫ 3 ୍࡛␒ప࠸⃰ᗘࡀࡳࡽࢀࡓ㸬ࡇࢀࡣ㸪⾲
ᒙỈ ࡢኚ໬࡜㛵ಀࡀ࠶ࡾ㸪ྲྀỈỈ῝ࡣ῝࠸࡯࡝⾲ᒙỈ ࡀ㧗ࡃ࡞ࡾ㸪Ỉ ไ㝈ᅉᏊ f (T)
ࡀᑠࡉࡃ࡞ࡿࡓࡵ㸪Chl.a ࡢᡂ㛗ࡀ㜼ᐖࡉࢀ⃰ᗘࡀపࡃ࡞ࡗࡓ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡓ㸬ࡉࡽ࡟㸪⌧
ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿࢣ࣮ࢫẖࡢᇶ‽⃰ᗘ(20 ǍJ/)ࢆ㉸࠼ࡿ㐃⥆᪥ᩘࡢㄪ࡭ࡿ࡜⌧ᅾ(74 ᪥)࡟
ᑐࡋ㸪ᑗ᮶࡟ࡣࡑࢀࡒࢀ᭱኱ 49 ᪥㸪21 ᪥㸪14 ᪥㸪20 ᪥࡜࡞ࡾ㸪ᑗ᮶࡟ࡣẼ ୖ᪼࡟క
࠺Ỉ ୖ᪼࡜ὶධ㔞ቑຍ࡟క࠺ฟỈ㢖ᗘࡢቑຍ࡟ࡼࡗ࡚᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥࡢቑṪࡣ࠶ࡲࡾ
㉳ࡽ࡞࠸ࡇ࡜ࡀ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟࡞ࡗࡓ㸬Chl.a ⃰ᗘࡢほⅬ࠿ࡽ⸴㢮✀ẖ࡟ẚ㍑ࡍࡿ࡜㸪⥳⸴㢮㸪
㠴ẟ⸴㢮㸪⌛⸴㢮ࡀ୺࡞༨᭷✀࡛࠶ࡾ㸪ྜィ⃰ᗘࡢᖹᆒ 9 ๭⛬ᗘࢆ༨ࡵ࡚࠸ࡓ㸬࡞࠾㸪⾲
ᒙྲྀỈࢆ⾜࠺ࢣ࣮ࢫ 0 ࡜ࢣ࣮ࢫ 1 ࡟࠾ࡅࡿỈ ไ㝈ᅉᏊࢆࡳࡿ࡜㸪⸛⸴㢮࡜⥳⸴㢮ࡣࢣ࣮
ࢫ 1 ࡀ㧗࠸ࡀ㸪⃰ᗘࡣప࠿ࡗࡓ(⾲ )㸬ࡇࢀࡣ㸪ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿฟỈࡢ㢖ᗘከ࠸ࡓࡵ㸪⾲ᒙ
ࡢ Chl.a ࡀὶࡉࢀ࡚⃰ᗘࡀపࡃ࡞ࡗࡓ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬
⾲ ࢲ࣒†ෆࡢ⾲ᒙ࡟࠾ࡅࡿኟሙ~ ᭶ࡢ⸴㢮ẖࡢᖹᆒ⃰ᗘ㸪ᖹᆒỈ ไ㝈ᅉᏊཬࡧ
ᖹᆒỈ ࢣ࣮ࢫ 0
ࢣ࣮ࢫ 1
ࢣ࣮ࢫ 2
ࢣ࣮ࢫ 3
ࢣ࣮ࢫ 4
⸛⸴㢮
0.82
0.56
0.62
0.36
0.68
⌛⸴㢮
2.55
1.05
1.12
0.72
1.12
⥳⸴㢮
6.67
3.02
2.40
1.17
2.89
㠴ẟ⸴㢮
3.54
0.96
0.90
0.56
0.95
ྜィ
13.58
5.59
5.04
2.81
5.64
⸛⸴㢮
1.16
1.21
1.04
0.95
1.08
ไ㝈
⌛⸴㢮
1.19
1.15
0.86
0.74
0.91
ᅉᏊ
⥳⸴㢮
1.20
1.22
0.98
0.87
1.03
㠴ẟ⸴㢮
1.07
0.95
0.64
0.54
0.69
17.97
25.58
28.32
29.04
27.96
⃰ᗘ
(ǍJ/)
Ỉ f (T)
Ỉ Υ
100 ➨ 4 ❶ Ẽೃኚື࡟㐺ᛂࡋࡓࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛ࡟ࡼࡿỈ㉁ྥୖ᪉ἲࡢ᳨ウ
ᅗ 6:6 ࡢ㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒†ෆ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ &KOD ⃰ᗘࡢᇶ‽್ࢆ㉸㐣ࡍࡿ᪥ᩘ
4.4.2 ෭࣭ Ỉᨺὶࡢၥ㢟
㎰ᴗ࡜⁺ᴗ࡟⿕ᐖࢆ୚࠼ࡿ෭࣭ Ỉᨺὶ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚➨ ❶࡟♧ࡋࡓࡼ࠺࡟⌧ᅾࡢὶධỈ ࠿ࡽୗ㝈(෭Ỉᨺὶࡢᇶ‽)࡜ୖ㝈( Ỉᨺὶࡢᇶ‽)ࢆồࡵ࡚㸪ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿ SWS ࡢ㐠⏝࡟
ࡼࡿ෭࣭ Ỉᨺὶࡢ᪥ᩘࢆホ౯ࡋࡓ(ᅗ ࡜ᅗ )㸬ᑗ᮶࡟࠾࠸࡚ࢣ࣮ࢫẖࡢ෭Ỉᨺὶ
᪥ᩘࡣࢣ࣮ࢫ 1 ࡛ィ 429 ᪥㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ 2 ࡛ィ 1,109 ᪥㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ 3 ࡛ィ 1,470 ᪥㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ 4 ࡛
ィ 813 ᪥࡜࡞ࡾ㸪 Ỉᨺὶ᪥ᩘࡣࢣ࣮ࢫ 1 ࡛ィ 2,432 ᪥㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ 2 ࡛ィ 1,687 ᪥㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ 3
࡛ィ 1,458 ᪥㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ 4 ࡛ィ 2,056 ᪥࡜࡞ࡗࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ᑗ᮶࡟ࡣẼ ୖ᪼࡟ࡼࡿὶධỈ ࡢ
ୖ᪼ࡶண᝿ࡉࢀࡿࡓࡵ㸪ࡇࢀ࡟ྜࢃࡏࡓ෭࣭ Ỉᨺὶࡢホ౯ࡀᚲせ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ࡇࢀࡣ㸪ேᕤⓗ
࡞ὶࢀࡢࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡟ẚ࡭㸪⮬↛ⓗ࡞ὶࢀ࡛࠶ࡿἙᕝࡣẼೃኚື࡟ࡼࡿἙᕝỈ ࡢኚ໬ࡀ⮬
↛ⓗ࡞⌧㇟࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿࡓࡵ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬Ỉ ࡢୗ㝈࡜ୖ㝈ࢆᑗ᮶ࡢὶධỈ ࠿ࡽồࡵ᳨࡚ウࡍ
ࡿ࡜ୗ㝈࡜ୖ㝈ࡢỈ ࡀࡑࢀࡒࢀୖ᪼ࡋ㸪෭Ỉᨺὶ᪥ᩘࡣࢣ࣮ࢫ 1 ࡛ィ 1,040 ᪥㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ 2
࡛ィ 1,762 ᪥㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ 3 ࡛ィ 1,940 ᪥㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ 4 ࡛ 1,402 ᪥࡜࡞ࡗࡓ㸬ࡑࡢ⤖ᯝ㸪⌧ᅾࡢᇶ
‽࡟ẚ࡭࡚ࡑࢀࡒࢀ 611 ᪥(142%)㸪653 ᪥(59%)㸪470 ᪥(32%)㸪589 ᪥(72%)ࡢ෭Ỉᨺὶ᪥
ᩘࡀቑຍࡋࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪 Ỉᨺὶ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣྛࢣ࣮ࢫ࡛ࡑࢀࡒࢀ 739 ᪥(30%)㸪633 ᪥(38%)㸪
458 ᪥(31%)㸪661 ᪥(32%)ࡢ Ỉᨺὶ᪥ᩘࡀῶᑡࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ(ᅗ )㸬
ᅗ ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶ࡢὶධỈ ࡟ᇶ࡙ࡃ෭࣭ Ỉᨺὶホ౯࡟ࡼࡿቑῶ⋡
4.4 Ỉ㉁ၥ㢟࡟╔┠ࡋࡓ᳨ウ 101
ᅗ 6:6 㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿ෭࣭ Ỉᨺὶࡢୗ㝈࡜ୖ㝈Ỉ ࡢ⠊ᅖ࡜ᖺኚືࣃࢱ࣮ࣥ
102 ➨ 4 ❶ Ẽೃኚື࡟㐺ᛂࡋࡓࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛ࡟ࡼࡿỈ㉁ྥୖ᪉ἲࡢ᳨ウ
4.4.3 ⃮Ỉ࡜ᅵ◁ሁ✚ࡢၥ㢟
ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⃮Ỉᨺὶၥ㢟ࢆホ౯ࡍࡿࡓࡵ࡟㸪Ỉ㐨⏝Ỉ 1࣭2࣭3 ⣭ࡢἙᕝ⎔ቃᇶ‽࡛࠶
ࡿ 25 mg/L(᪥ᖹᆒ್)࡟ᇶ࡙ࡃ᪥ᖹᆒ⃰ᗘࡀᇶ‽್ࢆ㉸࠼ࡿ᪥ᩘࢆホ౯ࡋࡓ(ᅗ )㸬ᑗ᮶
࡟࠾ࡅࡿSWS㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿ⃮Ỉᨺὶࡢ᪥ᩘࡣࢣ࣮ࢫ 1 ࡛ィ 597 ᪥㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ 2 ࡛ィ 672 ᪥㸪
ࢣ࣮ࢫ 3 ࡛ィ 739 ᪥㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ 4 ࡛ィ 739 ᪥࡜࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬ࡇࢀࡣ㸪⌧ᅾࡼࡾᑗ
᮶࡟ฟỈࡢつᶍ࡜㢖ᗘࡀቑຍࡉࢀ㸪ᇶ‽್ࢆ㉸࠼ࡿ⃮Ỉࡢᨺὶࡀቑ࠼ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟࡞
ࡗࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪25 mg/Lࢆ㉸㐣ࡍࡿ⃮Ỉࡢ㐃⥆ᨺὶ᪥ᩘࡣྛࢣ࣮ࢫ࡛ 266 ᪥㸪291 ᪥㸪320
᪥㸪291 ᪥࡜࡞ࡾ㸪⾲ᒙྲྀỈࢆ⾜ࡗࡓࢣ࣮ࢫ 1 ࡛᭱ࡶ▷࠸⃮Ỉᨺὶᮇ㛫࡛࠶ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ᳨ウ
ࡉࢀࡓ(⾲ )㸬⾲ᒙྲྀỈࢆ⾜ࡗࡓࢣ࣮ࢫ 1 ࡟ẚ࡭㸪ྲྀỈỈ῝ࡀࡼࡾ῝ࡃ࡞ࡿࢣ࣮ࢫ 2㸪3
࡛⃮Ỉᨺὶ᪥ᩘཬࡧ᭱኱㐃⥆ᨺὶ᪥ᩘࡀቑຍࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬ࡇࢀࡣ㸪ྲྀỈ௨ᚋ࡟㸪
ྲྀỈỈ῝ࡀ῝࠸࡯࡝ỿ㝆ࡍࡿSSࢆࡼࡾ㛗࠸᫬㛫ྲྀỈࡍࡿࡓࡵ࡛࠶ࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡓ㸬ࢣ࣮ࢫ
4 ࡣฟỈࡀጞࡲࡿ࡜Ỉ῝ 4~6 mࡢྲྀỈࢆ 10~12 m࡟ኚ᭦ࡍࡿࡓࡵ㸪ࢣ࣮ࢫ 3 ࡜ྠᵝ࡟⾲ᒙ
࠿ࡽỿ㝆ࡍࡿSSࡢྲྀỈࡀ㉳ࡗࡓ㸬ࡇࡢࡼ࠺࡟⃮Ỉࡢ᪩ᮇ᤼㝖ࢆពᅗࡋࡓࢣ࣮ࢫ 3 ࡜ 4 ࡜ࡶ
࡟⃮Ỉᨺὶࡢపῶຠᯝࡣࡳࡽࢀࡎ㸪⃮Ỉᨺὶࢆ㑊ࡅࡿࡓࡵ࡟ࡣὸ࠸Ỉ῝࠿ࡽࡢྲྀỈࡀ᭷ຠ
࡛࠶ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀศ࠿ࡗࡓ㸬ࡉࡽ࡟㸪⾲ ࡟ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿSWS㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒†ෆࡢᅵ◁ሁ
✚㔞࡜ሁ✚⋡ࢆ♧ࡋࡓ㸬⌧ᅾ㸪ࢲ࣒࡟ὶධࡍࡿ 9 ᖺ㛫ࡢ⥲ᅵ◁㔞ࡣ⣙ 105 ༓m3 㸪ᑗ᮶ࡣ⣙
443 ༓m3 ࡜኱ᖜ࡟ቑຍࡍࡿὶධᅵ◁㔞ࡀண᝿ࡉࢀࡓ㸬ࡑࡢ୰㸪⾲ᒙྲྀỈࡢ᫬㸪⌧ᅾࡣ 91
༓m 3(ὶධᅵ◁ࡢ 87.5%)ሁ✚ࡋ㸪ᑗ᮶ࡣ 346.9 ༓m 3(ὶධᅵ◁ࡢ 78.3%)ࡀሁ✚ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ
ண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬ࡇࢀࡣ⌧ᅾࡼࡾᑗ᮶ࡢฟỈ㢖ᗘࡀቑຍࡋ㸪ࢲ࣒†ෆࡢỈࡢ␃᫬㛫ࡀ▷ࡃ࡞
ࡿࡓࡵ㸪ᑗ᮶࡟ࡼࡾከࡃࡢᅵ◁ࡢ᤼㝖ࡀྍ⬟࡜࡞ࡗ࡚࠸ࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ᑗ᮶ࡢSWS
㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿࢣ࣮ࢫ 2 ࡣ 346.7 ༓m3 (38.5 ༓m 3ᖺ)㸪
ࢣ࣮ࢫ 3 ࡣ 348.5 ༓m3 (38.7 ༓m3ᖺ)㸪
ࢣ࣮ࢫ 4 ࡣ 346.0 ༓m3 (38.4 ༓m 3ᖺ)ࡀࢲ࣒࡟ሁ✚ࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬ࡇࢀࡽ㐠⏝ࢣ
࣮ࢫࡈ࡜࡟኱ࡁ࡞ᕪࡀ࡞࠸ࡢࡣ㸪ὥỈྤࡁࡀࢲ࣒ୖ㒊࡟࠶ࡾ㸪኱ࡁ࡞ὶ㔞ࡣࡇࡇ࠿ࡽᨺὶ
ࡉࢀࡿࡓࡵ㸪SWSࡢ㐠⏝࡟࠶ࡲࡾᕪࡀ࡞࠿ࡗࡓࡶࡢ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬≉࡟ẚ㍑ⓗ࡟኱ࡁ࡞ὥ
ỈࡀⓎ⏕ࡋࡓ 2066 ᖺ(᫬㛫᭱኱ὶධ㔞302 m3/s)࡜ 2070 ᖺ(᫬㛫᭱኱ὶධ㔞311 m3/s)ࡣ
ࡑࢀࡒࢀ⣙ 156 ༓m3 㸪200 ༓m 3ࡢᅵ◁ࡀὶධࡋ㸪ࡑࢀࡒࢀ⣙ 121 ༓m3 㸪150 ༓m 3ࡀሁ✚
ࡋࡓ㸬ࡇࢀࡣ㸪ᖺィ⏬ሁ◁㔞 20 ༓m3 ᖺࡢ 6 ಸ௨ୖ࡜࡞ࡗࡓ㸬
⾲ ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿẖᖺࡢ⃮Ỉᨺὶ᪥ᩘ࡜᭱኱㐃⥆᪥ᩘ
༢఩
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
᭱኱
(᪥)
2062 2063 2064 2065 2066 2067 2068 2069 2070
㐃⥆᪥ᩘ
ࢣ࣮ࢫ 0
0
30
0
0
0
97
0
30
24
79
ࢣ࣮ࢫ 1
44
4
30
18
116
231
27
0
127
266
ࢣ࣮ࢫ 2 101
8
58
19
127
232
0
0
127
291
ࢣ࣮ࢫ 3 102
12
81
31
147
239
0
0
127
320
ࢣ࣮ࢫ 4 102
12
63
31
152
244
8
0
127
291
4.4 Ỉ㉁ၥ㢟࡟╔┠ࡋࡓ᳨ウ 103
ᅗ 6:6 ࡢ㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿᑗ᮶ࡢ⃮Ỉᨺὶ᪥ᩘ࡜ᨺὶ 66 ࡢ᫬⣔ิኚ໬
⾲ 6:6 㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿᑗ᮶ࡢࢲ࣒†ෆ࡟࠾ࡅࡿẖᖺࡢᅵ◁ሁ✚㔞࡜ሁ✚⋡
༢఩䠖m3
ὶධᅵ◁㔞
ࢣ࣮ࢫ 0
ࢣ࣮ࢫ 1
ࢣ࣮ࢫ 2
ࢣ࣮ࢫ 3
ࢣ࣮ࢫ 4
2062
4,860/21,518
4,641
19,638
19,463
19,618
19,586
2063
14,616/10,562
13,519
10,004
99,44
9,863
9,851
2064
2,848/31,722
2,558
26,317
26,414
26,925
26,559
2065
526/10,777
184
9,642
9,573
9,565
9,589
2066
4,658/156,605
4,371
121,343
121,208
122,142
121,083
2067
57,081/11,762
48,054
10,053
10,105
9,912
9,925
2068
4,251/323
3,590
-339
-279
-275
-331
2069
6,108/416
5,571
25
74
85
34
2070
9,807/199,600
9,192
150,206
150,157
150,671
149,745
⣼✚
104,755
ሁ✚㔞
/443,285
91,681
346,890
346,659
348,505
346,041
ሁ✚⋡(%)
䠉
87.5
78.3
78.2
78.6
78.1
104 ➨ 4 ❶ Ẽೃኚື࡟㐺ᛂࡋࡓࢲ࣒㈓Ỉụ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛ࡟ࡼࡿỈ㉁ྥୖ᪉ἲࡢ᳨ウ
4.5 ⤖ㄒ ᮏ❶࡛ࡣ㸪ᾆᒣࢲ࣒࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶ࡢ㛗ᮇ㛫(9 ᖺ㛫)ࡢỈ㉁ࡢண ィ⟬ࢆ⾜࠸㸪ᑗ᮶
࡟࠾࠸࡚༴᝹ࡉࢀࡿ†ෆࡢ᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥࡢ኱ቑṪ㸪෭࣭ Ỉᨺὶ㸪ሁ◁ၥ㢟࡟ᑐࡋ࡚
SWS ࡢ㐠⏝᮲௳࡟ࡼࡿᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࡢỈ㉁ኚ໬ࢆホ౯ࡋࡓ㸬ࡇࡇ࡛ᚓࡽࢀࡓ⤖ᯝࢆࡲ࡜ࡵࡿ㸬
1) ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿẼ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱࡣWRF㸪ࢲ࣒࡬ࡢὶධ㔞ࡣYHyM/BTOPMCࢆ㐺⏝ࡋ
࡚ᚓࡽࢀࡓ⤖ᯝ࡟ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ⤖ᯝ㸪Ẽ ࡣᑗ᮶࡟⌧ᅾࡼࡾᖹᆒ 2.9Υୖ᪼ࡋ㸪
ࢲ࣒࡬ࡢὶධ㔞ࡣ 0.4 m 3/sቑຍࡋࡓ㸬ࡉࡽ࡟㸪ࢲ࣒†ෆࡣᑗ᮶࡟Ẽ ୖ᪼࡜࡜ࡶ࡟≉࡟⾲
ỈᒙࡢỈ ࡀୖ᪼ࡋ㸪Ỉ ㌍ᒙ఩⨨ࡶపୗࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ὶධ㔞ࡢቑຍ࡟
ࡼࡿSSࡢቑຍࡀண ࡉࢀࡓࡀ㸪Ỉ ୖ᪼࡜ฟỈ㢖ᗘࡢቑຍ࡟ࡼࡾᖹᆒChl.aࡣῶᑡࡍࡿࡇ
࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬
2) SWS ࡢ㐠⏝᮲௳࡟క࠺ᑗ᮶ࡢỈ㉁ኚ໬ࢆண ࡋࡓ⤖ᯝ㸪ࢲ࣒†ෆࡣ⾲ᒙྲྀỈ(ࢣ࣮ࢫ
1)ࡼࡾྲྀỈỈ῝ࡀ 10~12 m ࡢࢣ࣮ࢫ 3 ࡛⾲ᒙࡢỈ ࡀୖ᪼ࡋ㸪ࡑࢀ࡟ࡼࡿỈ ㌍ᒙࡢ఩⨨
ࡶపୗࡋࡓ㸬SS ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣྲྀỈỈ῝࡟క࠺Ỉ ศᕸࡢኚ໬࡟ࡼࡿ㈏ධ఩⨨ࡢኚ໬࡟ࡼࡾྲྀ
ỈỈ῝ࡀ῝࠸࡯࡝ฟỈ᫬࡟⃮ᗘᒙࡀᗈࡀࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟࡞ࡗࡓ㸬࡞࠾㸪Chl.a ࡣྲྀỈỈ
῝ࡀ῝࠸࡯࡝⾲ᒙỈ ࡀୖ᪼ࡋ㸪ᡂ㛗᭱㐺Ỉ ⠊ᅖࢆ㉸࠼ࡿࡓࡵ㸪Chl.a ࡀపୗࡍࡿࡇ࡜
ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬
3) ୗὶἙᕝ࡟࠾ࡅࡿᨺὶỈ ࡣࢲ࣒†ෆࡢỈ ࡟౫Ꮡࡋ㸪Ẽ ୖ᪼࡟క࠺ࢲ࣒†ෆࡢỈ
ୖ᪼࡟ࡼࡾ෭Ỉᨺὶࡣῶᑡ㸪 Ỉᨺὶࡣቑຍࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪⌧ᅾࡢỈ ࢆᇶ‽࡟ࡋࡓሙྜ㸪ᑗ᮶࡟ SWS ࡢ㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿ෭࣭ Ỉᨺὶࢆホ౯ࡋࡓ⤖ᯝ㸪෭Ỉᨺὶ࡟
ࡘ࠸࡚⾲ᒙྲྀỈࡢሙྜ࡟ 47 ᪥/ᖺ㸪Ỉ῝ 10~12 m ࠿ࡽྲྀỈࡍࡿሙྜ࡟ 163 ᪥/ᖺ㸪 Ỉᨺ
ὶࡣྛࢣ࣮ࢫ࡛ࡑࢀࡒࢀ 270 ᪥/ᖺ㸪162 ᪥/ᖺ࡜࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀ㸪⾲ᒙ㏆ࡃ࡛ྲྀỈࡍ
ࡿ࡯࡝෭Ỉᨺὶᮇ㛫ࡣ▷ࡃ࡞ࡿࡀ㸪 Ỉᨺὶᮇ㛫ࡀ㛗ࡃ࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ᫂ࡽ࠿࡜࡞ࡗࡓ㸬
4) ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿ SWS ࡢ㐠⏝᪉ἲ࡟క࠺⃮Ỉᨺὶࢆホ౯ࡋࡓ⤖ᯝ㸪ᑗ᮶ࡣᚠ⎔ᮇ࡟ධࡿ
10 ᭶࡟኱ࡁ࡞ὥỈࡀⓎ⏕ࡋ㸪ᡂᒙࡀ◚ቯࡉࢀࡓࡓࡵ㸪⃮Ỉࡢ᪩ᮇ᤼㝖ࢆពᅗࡋࡓࢣ࣮ࢫ 3
࡜ 4 ࡜ࡶ࡟ࡑࡢຠᯝࡣࡳࡽࢀࡎ㸪⃮Ỉᨺὶࢆ㑊ࡅࡿࡓࡵ࡟ࡣὸ࠸Ỉ῝࠿ࡽࡢྲྀỈ(ࢣ࣮ࢫ
1)ࡀ᭷ຠ࡛࠶ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀศ࠿ࡗࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ࢲ࣒†ෆ࡟ὶධࡍࡿ SS ࡜ᇶ࡙ࡃὶධᅵ◁㔞࡜ሁ
✚ᅵ◁㔞ࢆホ౯ࡋࡓ⤖ᯝ㸪⌧ᅾࡼࡾᑗ᮶࡟ከࡃࡢᅵ◁ࡀὶධࡍࡿࡀ㸪ᑗ᮶ࡣ⌧ᅾࡼࡾฟỈ
㢖ᗘࡀከࡃ㸪ࡑࢀࡽࡣỿ㝆ࡍࡿ๓࡟ὥỈྤࡁ࠶ࡿ࠸ࡣ SWS ࠿ࡽᨺὶࡉࢀࡿࡓࡵ㸪ᑗ᮶࡟
࠾ࡅࡿὶධᅵ◁࡟ᑐࡍࡿᅵ◁ࡢሁ✚⋡ࡣᑠࡉ࠿ࡗࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪SWS 㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿሁ✚⋡ࡣ㸪ࢲ
࣒ᵓ㐀ୖࡢཎᅉࡓࡵ኱ࡁ࡞㐪࠸ࡣ࡞࠿ࡗࡓ㸬
5) ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿ SWS ࡢ㐠⏝࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࢲ࣒†ෆࡢ᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥᡂ㛗࡜ Ỉᨺὶ࡟
4.5 ⤖ㄒ 105
╔┠ࡍࡿ࡜ྲྀỈỈ῝ࡀ῝࠸࡯࡝㸪෭Ỉᨺὶ࡟╔┠ࡍࡿ࡜⾲ᒙ࡜㏆࠸࡯࡝Ⰻ࠸⤖ᯝࡀᚓࡓ㸬
ᚑࡗ࡚㸪᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥࡢᡂ㛗ࢆ㜵ࡄࡓࡵ࡟῝࠸ྲྀỈỈ῝ࢆタᐃࡍࡿ࡜෭Ỉᨺὶࡀ㉳ࡇ
ࡿࡓࡵ㸪ᮏ◊✲࡛⾜ࡗࡓ㐠⏝᪉ἲ࡛ࡣ⾲ᒙྲྀỈࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ᭱ࡶຠᯝࡀ㧗࠸࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬
ࡇࢀࡣ㸪⾲ᒙྲྀỈࡣ 10~12 m ࡢྲྀỈࡼࡾ Chl.a ࡢᇶ‽⃰ᗘ(20 ǍJ/)ࢆ㉸࠼ࡿᮇ㛫ࡀ 5 ᪥/
ᖺ⛬ᗘቑຍࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡟ᑐࡋ㸪෭Ỉᨺὶᮇ㛫ࡢῶᑡ(116 ᪥/ᖺ)ࡀࡼࡾ࡛ࡁࡿࡓࡵ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ࡲ
ࡓ㸪SS ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣ SWS 㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿ᫂☜࡞ᕪࡣᚓࡽࢀ࡞࠿ࡗࡓࡀ㸪ୗὶἙᕝࡢᇶ‽⃰ᗘࢆ
㉸࠼ࡿᨺὶᮇ㛫࡟╔┠ࡍࡿ࡜⾲ᒙྲྀỈࡍࡿ᪉ἲࡀ᭱ࡶⰋ࠸㐠⏝᪉ἲ࡛࠶ࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬
௨ୖࡢࡇ࡜࡟ࡼࡾ㸪᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥࡢቑṪ㸪෭࣭ Ỉᨺὶ㸪㧗⃮Ỉᨺὶ࡜ᅵ◁ሁ✚ࡢ
ၥ㢟࡟ᑐࡋ㸪SWS ࡢ㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡾ 3 ࡘࡢၥ㢟ࢆྠ᫬࡟ゎỴࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡣᅔ㞴࡛࠶ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ᫂ࡽ
࠿࡟࡞ࡗࡓ㸬ᚑࡗ࡚㸪ࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢỈ㉁ၥ㢟࡟ᑐࡍࡿ≉ᛶࢆᢕᥱࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡟ࡼࡾ᭱ࡶຠᯝࡀ
㧗࠸㡯┠࡟╔┠ࡋ࡚㸪SWS ࡢ㐠⏝ࢆ⾜࠺ᚲせࡀ࠶ࡿ㸬ࡲࡎ㸪ᮏ◊✲࡛ᚓࡽࢀࡓ⤖ᯝࢆཧ⪃
࡟ 4~11 ᭶ࡲ࡛Ỉ㠃~Ỉ῝ 5 m 㛫ࡢ⾲ᒙྲྀỈࢆ⾜࠺࡜㸪Ỉ῝ 10~12 m ࠿ࡽྲྀỈࡍࡿ㐠⏝࡟
ẚ࡭࡚㸪ࢲ࣒†ෆࡢ⾲ᒙ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ࠶ࡿ⛬ᗘ Chl.a ⃰ᗘࡢቑຍࡀண᝿ࡉࢀࡿࡀ㸪ࡇࢀ࡟ᑐࡍ
ࡿ෭Ỉᨺὶᮇ㛫ࡢ▷⦰ຠᯝࡀࡼࡾ㧗ࡃ࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ᚠ⎔ᮇ࡛࠶
ࡿ 12~3 ᭶࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡣ࡝ࡢᒙ࡛ࡶ࡯ࡰྠࡌỈ ࡜⃰ᗘࡢศᕸ࡛࠶ࡿࡓࡵ㸪3 ᭶௨ᚋࡢྲྀỈỈ
῝ࢆ⪃࠼ࡿ࡜Ỉ㠃~Ỉ῝ 5m 㛫࠿ࡽྲྀỈࢆ⾜࠺࡜ SWS ࡢ᧯స࡟ࡼࡿ㈝⏝ࡢపῶࡀண᝿ࡉࢀ
ࡿ㸬ࡉࡽ࡟㸪SS ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡶ⾲ᒙྲྀỈࢆ⾜࠺࡜㸪ᮏ◊✲࡛ᚓࡽࢀࡓ⤖ᯝࡼ࠺࡟ୗὶἙᕝ࡟࠾
ࡅࡿ SS ࡢᇶ‽⃰ᗘࢆ㉸࠼ࡿᨺὶᮇ㛫ࢆ▷ࡃࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ࡜ᮇᚅࡉࢀࡿ㸬
106 ➨ 4 ❶ ཧ⪃ᩥ⊩
̿➨ 4 ❶ཧ⪃ᩥ⊩̿
[1] ⥲ྜ⛉Ꮫᢏ⾡఍㆟⎔ቃᢸᙜ㆟ဨ࣭ෆ㛶ᗓᨻ⟇⤫ᣓᐁ(⛉Ꮫᢏ⾡ᨻ⟇ᢸᙜ)ඹ⦅㸪2003. ᆅ
⌫ ᬮ໬◊✲ࡢ᭱๓⥺㸫⎔ቃࡢୡ⣖ࡢ▱࡜ᢏ⾡ 2002㸪⥲ྜ⛉Ꮫᢏ⾡఍㆟࣭ᆅ⌫ ᬮ໬
◊✲࢖ࢽࢩࣕࢸ࢕ࣈ࣭Ẽೃኚືศ㔝ሗ࿌᭩㸪㈈ົ┬༳ๅᒁ.
[2] Jha, M., Arnold, J. G., Gassman, P. W., Giorgi, F. and Gu, R. R., 2006. Climate
changes sensitivity assessment on upper mississippi river basin streamflows using
SWAT. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 42, 997-1015.
[3] Ma, S., Kassinos, S. C., Fatta Kassinos, D. and Akylas, E., 2008. Effects of selective
water withdrawal schemes on thermal stratification in Kouris Dam in Cyprus.
Lakes & Reservoirs: Research and Management, 13, 51-61.
[4] ᇼ⏣ဴኵ㸪㝞㣕ຬ㸪ᒣୗⰾᾈ㸪ᮾᾏᯘග㸪2002. ᡂᒙᆺࢲ࣒†࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⃮Ỉ≉ᛶ࡜㑅
ᢥྲྀỈຠᯝ࡟㛵ࡍࡿ஦౛ⓗ◊✲㸪ỈᕤᏛㄽᩥ㞟㸪➨ 46 ᕳ㸪1079-1084.
[5] ▮ᓥၨ㸪▼㯮₶, 2005. ␗㧗ྠ᫬㑅ᢥྲྀỈ࡟ࡼࡿࢲ࣒㈓ỈụࡢỈ㉁ಖ඲ຠᯝ࡟㛵ࡍࡿ◊
✲㸪ỈᕤᏛㄽᩥ㞟㸪➨ 49 ᕳ㸪1135-1140.
[6] ∾㔝⫱௦㸪ᑌ㤾㸪❧ᕝᗣே㸪2007. 㑅ᢥྲྀỈ᪉ᘧࡢᑟධࡀ᳜≀ࣉࢱࣥࢡࢺࣥࡢ㖄┤ศ
ᕸ࡜ᡂ㛗⎔ቃ࡟ཬࡰࡍᙳ㡪, ỈᕤᏛㄽᩥ㞟, ➨ 51 ᕳ, 1379-1384.
[7] Vollenweider, R. A. and Kerekes, J., 1980. Synthesis report. Cooperative
Programme on Monitoring of Inland Waters (Eutrophication Control), Rep.
Technical Bureau, Water Management Sector Group, Organization for Economic
Cooperation and Development (OECD), Paris, 290.
[8] ᅜᅵ஺㏻┬㸪
2003. ࢲ࣒஦ᴗ㸫ᆅᇦ࡟୚࠼ࡿᵝࠎ࡞ຠᯝ࡜ᙳ㡪ࡢ᳨ᐃ㸪
ᖹᡂ 13 ᖺᗘ~14
ᖺᖺᗘࣉࣟࢢ࣒ࣛホ౯᭩.
[9] ᅜᅵ஺㏻┬ἙᕝᒁἙᕝ⎔ቃㄢ㸪2005. ᭚Ẽᚠ⎔タഛཬࡧ㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛࡢ㐠⏝࣐ࢽࣗ࢔
ࣝ(᱌).
107
➨ 5 ❶ ⤖ㄽ
ᮏㄽᩥ࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡣᮾி㒔㸪ᇸ⋢┴ཬࡧ⛛∗ᕷ࡟ 1 ᪥᭱኱ 35 ୓m 3ࡢỈ㐨⏝Ỉࢆᥦ౪ࡋ࡚
࠸ࡿ㔜せ࡞Ỉ࣓࡛࢞࠶ࡿᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࢆᑐ㇟࡟㸪ᑗ᮶(2062~2070 ᖺ)࡟࠾ࡅࡿᚓࡓẼ㇟࡜ὶฟ
ࢹ࣮ࢱ࡟ᑐࡋ࡚ࡼࡾಙ㢗ᛶࡀ㧗࠸ᑗ᮶ண ⤖ᯝࢆᚓࡿࡓࡵ࡟⾜ࡗࡓࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇࡢጇᙜᛶ
ࢆ☜ㄆࡋࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ࡑࡢ⤖ᯝࢆ฼⏝ࡋ㸪ᾆᒣࢲ࣒࡟࠾࠸࡚ࢲ࣒†ෆ࡜ୗὶἙᕝࡢỈ㉁ኚ໬
ࢆ᳨ウࡋࡓୖ࡛㸪Ỉ㉁ಖ඲᪋タ࡛࠶ࡿSWSࡢ㐠⏝᪉ἲ࡟క࠺Ỉ㉁ኚ໬ࢆ᳨ウࡋࡓ㸬ࡑࡋ࡚㸪
ᑗ᮶ࡢᾆᒣࢲ࣒࡟࠾ࡅࡿSWSࡢ᭱㐺㐠⏝᪉ἲࢆᥦ᱌ࡋࡓ㸬
௨ୗ࡟㸪ྛ❶࡛ᚓࡽࢀࡓ୺࡞▱ぢࢆせ⣙ࡋ࡚ᮏㄽᩥࡢ⤖ㄽ࡜ࡍࡿ㸬
➨ 1 ❶࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡣ㸪ẼೃኚືࡀỈ㈨※࡟ཬࡰࡍᙳ㡪࡟㛵ࡍࡿ᪤ ࡢ◊✲࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࣞࣅࣗ
࣮ࡋ࡚㸪ࡲࡓỈ㉁ಖ඲᪋タẖࡢ㐠⏝ຠᯝࢆ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟☜ㄆࡋࡓ࡜࡜ࡶ࡟㸪ࡑࡢ⌧≧࠾ࡼࡧ୙
㊊ࡋࡓⅬࡼࡾᮏ◊✲ࡢᚲせᛶࢆ᫂☜࡟ࡋ㸪ᮏㄽᩥࡢᵓᡂ࠾ࡼࡧෆᐜ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚♧ࡋࡓ㸬
➨ 2 ❶࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡣ㸪ᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࢆᑐ㇟࡟ᖹỈᖺ࡛࠶ࡿ 2000 ᖺࢆࡶ࡜࡟ WRF ࢆ⏝࠸ࡓຊᏛ
ⓗࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ⤖ᯝࢆ⏝࠸㸪ࡑࡢ⤖ᯝࢆ」ᩘࡢ᪉ἲ࡛ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇࢆ⾜ࡗ
ࡓ㸬⿵ṇࢆ⾜ࡗࡓࢹ࣮ࢱ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚⢭ᗘࢆホ౯ࡍࡿ࡜࡜ࡶ࡟ 3 ḟඖ†἟⏕ែ⣔ࣔࢹ࡛ࣝ࠶ࡿ
ELCOM-CAEDYM ࢆ㐺ᛂࡋࡓ࡜ࡁࡢ㸪ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇࡀ㈓ỈụỈ㉁࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪ࢆホ౯ࡋ
ࡓ㸬ࡑࡢ⤖ᯝ㸪ᑗ᮶᫬࡬ࡢ㐺ᛂࢆ⪃៖ࡋࡓሙྜ㸪㢖ᗘศᕸ࣐ࢵࣆࣥࢢࡀ᭱ࡶ㐺ษ࡞⿵ṇ᪉
ἲ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪⿵ṇᚋࡢ⢭ᗘ࠿ࡽẼ 㸪Ẽᅽ㸪᪥ᑕ㔞㸪㞼㔞㸪‵ᗘ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࣂ
࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇࡀྍ⬟࡛࠶ࡿࡇ࡜ࢆ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟ࡋࡓ㸬࡞࠾㸪㢼ྥ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣ⤫ィⓗࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮
ࣜࣥࢢࡀ᭷ຠ࡛࠶ࡾ㸪㢼ྥ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࡶࡗ࡜ヲ⣽࡞ࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ➼ࡢᑐᛂࡀᚲせ࡛
࠶ࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣜࣥࢢ࠿ࡽᚓࡽࢀࡓẼ ࡸ᪥ᑕ㔞࡞࡝࡟㐺ษ࡞ࣂ
࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇࢆ⾜࠺ࡇ࡜࡟ࡼࡾ㸪ELCOM-CAEDYM ࣔࢹࣝࢆ⏝࠸ࡓィ⟬ࢆ⾜࠸㸪ࢲ࣒ෆ࡜
ࡑࢀࡢᙳ㡪ࢆᙉࡃཷࡅࡿୗὶἙᕝ(ࢲ࣒┤ୗὶ 90 m)ࡢኚ໬ࢆ᳨ウࡋࡓ㸬ࡑࡢ⤖ᯝ㸪SS㸪TN
ࡸ TP ⃰ᗘ࡟୚࠼ࡿᙳ㡪ࡣᑠࡉ࠿ࡗࡓ㸬ࡋ࠿ࡋ࡞ࡀࡽ㸪Ỉ 㸪⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲࡜᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺ
ࣥ(Chl.a)࡟ࡣ኱ࡁ࡞ᙳ㡪ࢆ୚࠼ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀศ࠿ࡗࡓ㸬ࡉࡽ࡟㸪᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥࡢࣂ࢖࣐࢜
ࢫ࡟኱ࡁ࡞ᙳ㡪ࢆ୚࠼ࡿ⾲ᒙỈ ࡟㔜せ࡞⇕཰ᨭࡢၥ㢟ࢆᑡ࡞ࡃࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ
ศ࠿ࡗࡓ㸬
➨ 3 ❶࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡣ㸪➨ ❶࡜ྠᵝ࡟ᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࢆᑐ㇟࡜ࡋ㸪WRF࡟ࡼࡾࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣝࡉ
ࢀࡓ㛗ᮇ㛫ࡢᑗ᮶ண ᝟ሗཬࡧࡑࡢ⤖ᯝࡢ㝆Ỉ㔞࠿ࡽ⟬ᐃࡉࢀࡓᾆᒣࢲ࣒࡬ࡢὶධ㔞ࢆ⏝
࠸㸪Ẽ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱ࡜ὶ㔞ࢹ࣮ࢱࡢࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ㸬ࡉࡽ࡟㸪⃮ᗘࡸ᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥ
108 ➨ 5 ❶ ⤖ㄽ
ࡢᣦᶆ࡛࠶ࡿSSࡸChl.aࢆྵࡴᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࡢỈ㉁ண ࢆ⾜࠸㸪ࢲ࣒†ෆ࡜ୗὶἙᕝ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ
Ỉ㉁ኚ໬ࢆ᳨ウࡋࡓ㸬WRF࡟ࡼࡾࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣝࡉࢀࡓẼ㇟ண ࡟ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ
⤖ᯝ㸪9 ᖺ㛫ࡢᑗ᮶ᖹᆒẼ ࡣ⌧ᅾᖹᆒẼ ࡼࡾ 2.9Υୖ᪼ࡋ㸪ࡲࡓ㸪ࢲ࢘ࣥࢫࢣ࣮ࣝ⤖ᯝ
࡟YHyM/BTOPMCࢆ㐺⏝ࡋ࡚ᚓࡽࢀࡓ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶ࡢᾆᒣࢲ࣒࡬ࡢὶධ㔞ࡢࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇ
⤖ᯝ㸪ᑗ᮶ࡣ⌧ᅾࡼࡾ 0.4 m 3/s⛬ᗘቑຍࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ᑗ᮶ண ࡢࡓࡵ࡟
ᵓ⠏ࡋࡓELCOM-CAEDYMࣔࢹࣝࡢධຊࢹ࣮ࢱࡢ 1 ࡘ࡛࠶ࡿὶධỈ ࡣẼ ࠿ࡽồࡵࡿ
ᅇᖐᘧࢆ⏝࠸㸪ᑗ᮶ࡣ⌧ᅾࡼࡾ 9 ᖺ㛫ᖹᆒ࡛ 2.0Υୖ᪼ࡋࡓ⤖ᯝࢆᚓࡓ㸬ࡉࡽ࡟㸪ὶධỈ
࠿ࡽ㣬࿴⃰ᗘ࡛⟬ฟࡉࢀࡿὶධ⁐Ꮡ㓟⣲ࡣ 0.7 mg/Lపୗࡋࡓ㸬ὶධSS⃰ᗘࡣὶධ㔞࠿ࡽ
ồࡵࡿL-Qᘧࢆ⏝࠸ࡓࡓࡵ㸪ὶධ㔞ࡀࡼࡾከ࠸ᑗ᮶࡟⌧ᅾ࡜ẚ࡭࡚ 9 ᖺ㛫ᖹᆒ 6.5 mg/Lቑ
ຍࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬ࡉࡽ࡟㸪2002~2010 ᖺࡢ෌⌧ィ⟬࠿ࡽᴫࡡ෌⌧࡛ࡁࡓࣃ࣓࣮ࣛ
ࢱࢆ⏝࠸࡚⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶ண ࢆ⾜ࡗࡓ⤖ᯝ㸪ࢲ࣒ᇶ‽Ⅼ࡟࠾࠸࡚ᑗ᮶࡟ࡣẼ ࡢୖ᪼࡟క࠸
⾲ᒙỈ ࡀᖹᆒ 2.8Υ㧗ࡃ࡞ࡿ࡜࡜ࡶ࡟Ỉ ᡂᒙࡶᙉࡃ࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ᑗ
᮶ࡣฟỈࡢつᶍ࡜㢖ᗘቑຍ࡟ࡼࡾ㢖⦾࡞㧗⃮Ỉࡢὶධ࣭ṧ␃࣭ᨺὶࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬୍᪉㸪
㏫࡟ᑗ᮶ࡢChl.aࡣ㸪⾲ᒙỈ ࡢୖ᪼ࡸᨺὶ㸪ฟỈ࡟ࡼࡿ⃮ỈࡀChl.aࡢᡂ㛗ࢆ㜼ᐖࡋ⌧ᅾ
ࡼࡾపࡃ࡞ࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡀ㧗࠸ࡇ࡜ࢆ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟ࡋࡓ㸬ࢲ࣒࠿ࡽࡢᨺὶ࡟ࡼࡿୗὶἙᕝࡢỈ㉁ኚ
໬ࢆࡳࡿ࡜㸪9 ᖺ㛫࡟㸪ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿ෭Ỉᨺὶ(ィ 429 ᪥)ࡣ⌧ᅾ(880 ᪥)ࡼࡾ▷ࡃ࡞ࡿࡀ㸪
ᑗ᮶ࡢ Ỉᨺὶ(ィ 2,432 ᪥)ࡣ⌧ᅾ(ィ 1,915 ᪥)ࡼࡾ㛗ࡃ࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬ࡉࡽ࡟㸪
25 mg/Lࢆ㉸࠼ࡿSSࡢᨺὶࡣ⌧ᅾ(ィ 181 ᪥)ࡼࡾࡶᑗ᮶(ィ 597 ᪥)࡟኱ᖜ࡟ቑຍࡋ㸪ᨺὶ
ࡉࢀࡓᅵ◁㔞ࢆẚ㍑ࡍࡿ࡜ᑗ᮶(21.7%)ࡣ⌧ᅾ(12.5%)ࡼࡾᨺὶࡉࢀࡓࡇ࡜ࡀ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟࡞ࡗ
ࡓ㸬௨ୖࡢࡇ࡜࡟ࡼࡾ㸪௒ᚋࡣᑗ᮶࡟㉳ࡇࡿྍ⬟ᛶࡀ㧗࠸ Ỉᨺὶࡸ㧗SSࡢᨺὶᮇ㛫ࢆ࡛
ࡁࡿࡔࡅ▷⦰࡛ࡁࡿ㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛ࡞࡝ࡢỈ㉁ಖ඲᪋タࡢ㐠⏝᪉ἲࢆ᳨ウࡋ㸪ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿ
ࢲ࣒†ෆ࡜ୗὶἙᕝ㸪୧᪉ࡢỈ㉁ࡢྥୖࡉࡏࡿ᪉ἲࢆᥦ᱌ࡍࡿᚲせࡀ࠶ࡿࡇ࡜ࢆ♧ࡋࡓ㸬
➨ 4 ❶࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡣ㸪 ᾆᒣࢲ࣒࡟࠾ࡅࡿ⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶ࡢ㛗ᮇ㛫(9 ᖺ㛫)ࡢỈ㉁ࡢண ィ⟬ࢆ
⾜࠸㸪ᑗ᮶࡟࠾࠸࡚༴᝹ࡉࢀࡿ†ෆࡢ᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥࡢ኱ቑṪ㸪෭࣭ Ỉᨺὶ㸪ሁ◁ၥ
㢟࡟ᑐࡋ࡚ SWS ࡢ㐠⏝᮲௳࡟ࡼࡿᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࡢỈ㉁ኚ໬ࢆホ౯ࡋࡓ㸬SWS ࡢ㐠⏝᮲௳࡟క
࠺ᑗ᮶ࡢỈ㉁ኚ໬ࢆண ࡋࡓ⤖ᯝ㸪ࢲ࣒†ෆࡣ⾲ᒙྲྀỈࡼࡾྲྀỈỈ῝ࢆ 10~12 m ࡟ࡍࡿ࡜
⾲ᒙࡢỈ ࡀୖ᪼ࡋ㸪ࡑࢀ࡟ࡼࡿỈ ㌍ᒙࡢ఩⨨ࡶపୗࡋࡓ㸬SS ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣྲྀỈỈ῝࡟క
࠺Ỉ ศᕸࡢኚ໬࡟ࡼࡿ㈏ධ఩⨨ࡢኚ໬࡟ࡼࡾྲྀỈỈ῝ࡀ῝࠸࡯࡝ฟỈ᫬࡟⃮ᗘᒙࡀᗈࡀ
ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟࡞ࡗࡓ㸬࡞࠾㸪Chl.a ࡣྲྀỈỈ῝ࡀ῝࠸࡯࡝⾲ᒙỈ ࡀୖ᪼ࡋ㸪ᡂ㛗᭱
㐺Ỉ ⠊ᅖࢆ㉸࠼ࡿࡓࡵ㸪Chl.a ࡀపୗࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬ୗὶἙᕝ࡟࠾ࡅࡿᨺὶỈ
ࡣࢲ࣒†ෆࡢỈ ࡟౫Ꮡࡋ㸪Ẽ ୖ᪼࡟క࠺ࢲ࣒†ෆࡢỈ ୖ᪼࡟ࡼࡾ෭Ỉᨺὶࡣῶᑡ㸪
Ỉᨺὶࡣቑຍࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪⌧ᅾࡢỈ ࢆᇶ‽࡟ࡋࡓሙྜ㸪ᑗ᮶࡟ SWS
ࡢ㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿ෭࣭ Ỉᨺὶࢆホ౯ࡋࡓ⤖ᯝ㸪෭Ỉᨺὶ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚⾲ᒙྲྀỈࡢሙྜ࡟ 47 ᪥/ᖺ㸪
Ỉ῝ 10~12 m ࠿ࡽྲྀỈࡍࡿሙྜ࡟ 163 ᪥/ᖺ㸪 Ỉᨺὶࡣྛࢣ࣮ࢫ࡛ࡑࢀࡒࢀ 270 ᪥/ᖺ㸪
162 ᪥/ᖺ࡜࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀண ࡉࢀ㸪⾲ᒙ㏆ࡃ࡛ྲྀỈࡍࡿ࡯࡝෭Ỉᨺὶᮇ㛫ࡣ▷ࡃ࡞ࡿࡀ㸪 Ỉᨺὶᮇ㛫ࡀ㛗ࡃ࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ᫂ࡽ࠿࡜࡞ࡗࡓ㸬ࢲ࣒†ෆ࡟ὶධࡍࡿ SS ࡜ᇶ࡙ࡃὶධᅵ◁
➨ 5 ❶ ⤖ㄽ 109
㔞࡜ሁ✚ᅵ◁㔞ࢆホ౯ࡋࡓ⤖ᯝ㸪⌧ᅾࡼࡾᑗ᮶࡟ከࡃࡢᅵ◁ࡀὶධࡍࡿࡀ㸪ᑗ᮶ࡣ⌧ᅾࡼ
ࡾฟỈ㢖ᗘࡀከࡃ㸪ࡑࢀࡽࡣỿ㝆ࡍࡿ๓࡟ὥỈྤ࠶ࡿ࠸ࡣ SWS ࠿ࡽᨺὶࡉࢀࡿࡓࡵ㸪ᑗ
᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿὶධᅵ◁࡟ᑐࡍࡿᅵ◁ࡢሁ✚⋡ࡣపࡃ࡞ࡗࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪SWS 㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿሁ✚⋡ࡣ㸪
ࢲ࣒ᵓ㐀ୖࡢཎᅉࡓࡵ኱ࡁ࡞㐪࠸ࡣ࡞࠿ࡗࡓ㸬
ᑗ᮶࡟࠾ࡅࡿ SWS ࡢ㐠⏝࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣࢲ࣒†ෆ᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥࡢᡂ㛗࡜ Ỉᨺὶ࡟╔
┠ࡍࡿ࡜ྲྀỈỈ῝ࡀ῝࠸࡯࡝㸪෭Ỉᨺὶ࡟╔┠ࡍࡿ࡜⾲ᒙ࡜㏆࠸࡯࡝Ⰻ࠸⤖ᯝࢆᚓࡓ㸬ᚑ
ࡗ࡚㸪᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥࡢᡂ㛗ࢆ㜵ࡄࡓࡵ࡟ྲྀỈỈ῝ࢆ῝ࡃタᐃࡍࡿ࡜෭Ỉᨺὶࡀ㉳ࡿࡓ
ࡵ㸪ᮏ◊✲࡛⾜ࡗࡓ㐠⏝᪉ἲ࡛ࡣ⾲ᒙྲྀỈࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ᭱ࡶຠᯝࡀ㧗࠸࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬ࡇࢀ
ࡣ㸪⾲ᒙྲྀỈࡣ 10~12 m ࡢྲྀỈࡼࡾ Chl.a ࡢᇶ‽⃰ᗘ(20 ǍJ/)ࢆ㉸࠼ࡿᮇ㛫ࡀ 5 ᪥/ᖺ⛬
ᗘቑຍࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡟ᑐࡋ㸪෭Ỉᨺὶᮇ㛫ࡢῶᑡ(116 ᪥/ᖺ)ࡀࡼࡾ࡛ࡁࡿࡓࡵ࡛࠶ࡿ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪
SS ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡣ SWS 㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿ᫂☜࡞ᕪࡣᚓࡽࢀ࡞࠿ࡗࡓࡀ㸪ୗὶἙᕝࡢᇶ‽⃰ᗘࢆ㉸࠼
ࡿᨺὶᮇ㛫࡟╔┠ࡍࡿ࡜⾲ᒙྲྀỈࡍࡿ᪉ἲࡀ᭱ࡶⰋ࠸㐠⏝᪉ἲ࡛࠶ࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬
௨ୖࡢࡇ࡜࡟ࡼࡾ㸪᳜≀ࣉࣛࣥࢡࢺࣥࡢቑṪ㸪෭࣭ Ỉᨺὶ㸪㧗⃮Ỉᨺὶ࡜ᅵ◁ሁ✚ࡢ
ၥ㢟࡟ᑐࡋ㸪SWS ࡢ㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡾ 3 ࡘࡢၥ㢟ࢆྠ᫬࡟ゎỴࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡣᅔ㞴࡛࠶ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ᫂ࡽ
࠿࡟࡞ࡗࡓ㸬ᚑࡗ࡚㸪ࡑࢀࡒࢀࡢỈ㉁ၥ㢟࡟ᑐࡍࡿ≉ᛶࢆᢕᥱࡍࡿࡇ࡜࡟ࡼࡾ᭱ࡶຠᯝࡀ
㧗࠸㡯┠࡟╔┠ࡋ࡚㸪SWS ࡢ㐠⏝ࢆ⾜࠺ᚲせࡀ࠶ࡿ㸬ࡲࡎ㸪ᮏ◊✲࡛ᚓࡽࢀࡓ⤖ᯝࢆཧ⪃
࡟ 4~11 ᭶ࡲ࡛Ỉ㠃~Ỉ῝ 5 m 㛫ࡢ⾲ᒙྲྀỈࢆ⾜࠺࡜㸪Ỉ῝ 10~12 m ࠿ࡽྲྀỈࡍࡿ㐠⏝࡟
ẚ࡭࡚㸪ࢲ࣒†ෆࡢ⾲ᒙ࡟࠾ࡅࡿ࠶ࡿ⛬ᗘ Chl.a ⃰ᗘࡢቑຍࡀண᝿ࡉࢀࡿࡀ㸪ࡇࢀ࡟ᑐࡍ
ࡿ෭Ỉᨺὶᮇ㛫ࡢ▷⦰ຠᯝࡀࡼࡾ㧗ࡃ࡞ࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ᚠ⎔ᮇ࡛࠶
ࡿ 12~3 ᭶࡟࠾࠸࡚ࡣ࡝ࡢᒙ࡛ࡶ࡯ࡰྠࡌỈ ࡜⃰ᗘࡢศᕸ࡛࠶ࡿࡓࡵ㸪3 ᭶௨ᚋࡢྲྀỈỈ
῝ࢆ⪃࠼ࡿ࡜Ỉ㠃~Ỉ῝ 5m 㛫࠿ࡽྲྀỈࢆ⾜࠺࡜ SWS ࡢ᧯స࡟ࡼࡿ㈝⏝ࡢపῶࡀண᝿ࡉࢀ
ࡿ㸬ࡉࡽ࡟㸪SS ࡟ࡘ࠸࡚ࡶ⾲ᒙྲྀỈࢆ⾜࠺࡜㸪ᮏ◊✲࡛ᚓࡽࢀࡓ⤖ᯝࡼ࠺࡟ୗὶἙᕝ࡟࠾
ࡅࡿ SS ࡢᇶ‽⃰ᗘࢆ㉸࠼ࡿᨺὶᮇ㛫ࢆ▷ࡃࡍࡿࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ࡜ᮇᚅࡉࢀࡿ㸬
௨ୖ㏙࡭ࡓࡼ࠺࡟㸪ᮏㄽᩥ࡛ࡣᑗ᮶ண ᫬࡟Ẽ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱ࡟ྵࡲࢀ࡚࠸ࡿࣂ࢖࢔ࢫࡀỈ㉁
ண ⤖ᯝ࡟ཬࡰࡍᙳ㡪࡟ࡘ࠸᳨࡚ウࢆ⾜࠸㸪ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇࡢᚲせᛶࢆ᫂ࡽ࠿࡟ࡋࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪
㐺ษ࡞ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇࢆ⾜ࡗࡓᑗ᮶ࡢẼ㇟࡜ὶฟࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ⏝࠸㸪ᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࡢ†ෆ࡜ୗὶἙᕝ
࡟࠾ࡅࡿᑗ᮶Ỉ㉁ண ࢆ⾜࠺࡜࡜ࡶ࡟㸪㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛࡢ㐠⏝᪉ἲ࡟క࠺Ỉ㉁ኚ໬ࡢ᳨ウࢆ
⾜ࡗࡓ㸬
ᮏ◊✲࡛ᚓࡽࢀࡓࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇ࡟㛵ࡍࡿᡂᯝࡣᑗ᮶ࡢẼ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱࢆ౑⏝ࡍࡿὶᇦࡢὶฟ
ィ⟬࡜ࢲ࣒㈓ỈụࡢỈ㉁ண ࡟㛵ࡋࡓ◊✲࡟ࣂ࢖࢔ࢫ⿵ṇࡢᚲせᛶ࡜ᙜⅭᛶࡢ᝟ሗᥦ౪ࢆ
㏻ࡌ㸪ண ⤖ᯝࡢಙ㢗ᛶྥୖ࡟኱ࡁ࡞ᙺ❧ࡘࡇ࡜ࡀ࡛ࡁࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ᚓࡽࢀࡓ
ᑗ᮶ࡢỈ㉁ண ⤖ᯝ࠾ࡼࡧ㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛࡢ㐠⏝᪉ἲ࡟క࠺Ỉ㉁ኚ໬ண ⤖ᯝࡣ㸪ᑗ᮶࡟࠾
ࡅࡿᾆᒣࢲ࣒ࡢ㑅ᢥྲྀỈタഛࡢ㐠⏝࡟ࡼࡿỈ㉁⟶⌮࡟㔜せ࡞ཧ⪃㈨ᩱ࡟࡞ࡿ࡜⪃࠼ࡽࢀࡿ㸬
̿ㅰ㎡̿
ᮏ◊✲ࡢ㐙⾜࡜ㄽᩥࡢᇳ➹࡟ᙜࡓࡗ࡚ࡣ㸪ከࡃࡢ᪉ࠎ࠿ࡽࡢᚚᣦᑟ㸪ᚚຓゝ㸪ᚚᨭ᥼ࢆ
㡬ࡁࡲࡋࡓ㸬
㫽ྲྀ኱ᏛᕤᏛ㒊ᅵᮌᕤᏛ⛉ ▮ᓥၨ෸ᩍᤵ࡟ࡣ㸪➹⪅ࡢ༤ኈᚋᮇㄢ⛬࡟࠾ࡅࡿ୺ᣦᑟᩍᐁ
࡜ࡋ࡚␃Ꮫ᫬࡟⣽࠿࠸᭩㢮࠿ࡽᐟ⯋࡞࡝ࡢ⏕άࡢ‽ഛࡲ࡛ࡍ࡭࡚ࡢᚚᨭ᥼ࢆ㡬ࡁࡲࡋࡓ㸬
ࡲࡓ㸪ㄽᩥᇳ➹ࡢ㝿࡟⤊ጞ ࠿࠸ᚚᣦᑟ࡞ࡽࡧ࡟ᚚᩍᤵࢆ㡬࠸࡚㸪ඛ⏕ࡢ◊✲࡟ᑐࡍࡿ⇕
ពࡸጼໃ࠿ࡽࡣᩘከࡃࡢࡇ࡜ࢆᩍ࠼࡚㡬ࡁࡲࡋࡓ㸬ࡇࡇ࡟グࡋ࡚῝ࡃឤㅰࡢពࢆ⾲ࡋࡲࡍ㸬
㫽ྲྀ኱ᏛᕤᏛ㒊ᅵᮌᕤᏛ⛉ ᷓ㇂἞ᩍᤵ࡟ࡣ㸪ᮏ◊✲ࡢ㐙⾜࡜ㄽᩥࡢᇳ➹࡟ᙜࡓࡗ࡚ከᩘࡢ
㈗㔜࡞ᚚពぢ㸪ᚚຓゝࢆ㡬ࡁࡲࡋࡓ㸬ࡇࡇ࡟グࡋ࡚ᨵࡵ࡚῝ࡃឤㅰ࠸ࡓࡋࡲࡍ㸬㫽ྲྀ኱Ꮫ
ᕤᏛ㒊♫఍㛤Ⓨࢩࢫࢸ࣒ᕤᏛ⛉ ቑ⏣㈗๎෸ᩍᤵ࡟ࡣ㸪ᮏㄽᩥࢆᚚ㧗ぴࡋ࡚㡬ࡃ࡜࡜ࡶ࡟㠀
ᖖ࡟㈗㔜࡞ᚚពぢ㸪ᚚຓゝࢆ㡬ࡁࡲࡋࡓ㸬ࡇࡇ࡟グࡋ࡚῝ࡃឤㅰ࠸ࡓࡋࡲࡍ㸬㫽ྲྀ኱Ꮫᕤ
Ꮫ㒊ᅵᮌᕤᏛ⛉ Ლᕝຬᶞຓᩍ࡟ࡣ㸪ᮏ◊✲ࡢ㐙⾜࡜ㄽᩥࡢᇳ➹࡟ᙜࡓࡗ࡚࠸ࡘࡶඃࡋࡃᚚ
ᣦᑟ㸪ᚚຓゝࢆ㡬ࡁࡲࡋࡓ㸬ࡇࡇ࡟グࡋ࡚῝ࡃឤㅰ࠸ࡓࡋࡲࡍ㸬ࡲࡓᮏ◊✲ࡣ㸪⛉Ꮫᢏ⾡
᣺⯆ᶵᵓ(JST)ࡢᡓ␎ⓗ๰㐀◊✲᥎㐍஦ᴗ(CREST)ࡢ◊✲ㄢ㢟͆Ẽೃኚື࡟㐺ᛂࡋࡓㄪ࿴ᆺ
㒔ᕷᅪỈ฼⏝ࢩࢫࢸ࣒ࡢ㛤Ⓨ͇(◊✲௦⾲㸸ᮾி኱Ꮫ኱Ꮫ㝔ᕤᏛ⣔◊✲⛉㝃ᒓỈ⎔ቃไᚚ◊
✲ࢭࣥࢱ࣮ ྂ⡿ᘯ᫂ᩍᤵ)ࡢࡶ࡜࡛⾜࠸ࡲࡋࡓ㸬ࡑࡇ࡛ࡣ㸪ྂ⡿ᩍᤵࢆࡣࡌࡵ࡜ࡍࡿ◊✲
ࢢ࣮ࣝࣉࡢⓙᵝ࡟ᵝࠎࡢᚚពぢ㸪ᚚຓゝࢆ㡬ࡁࡲࡋࡓ㸬ࡇࡇ࡟グࡋ࡚῝ࡃឤㅰ࠸ࡓࡋࡲࡍ㸬
≉࡟㸪㔠ἑ኱Ꮫ⌮ᕤ◊✲ᇦ⎔ቃࢹࢨ࢖ࣥᏛ⣔ ㇂ཱྀ೺ྖ෸ᩍᤵ࡟ࡣ㸪ᮏ◊✲ࢆ㐙⾜࡟㈗㔜࡞
⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶ࡢẼ㇟ࢹ࣮ࢱࡸᚚຓゝࢆ㡬ࡁࡲࡋࡓ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ᒣ᲍኱Ꮫ⏕࿨⎔ቃᏛ㒊⎔ቃ⛉Ꮫ⛉
▼ᖹ༤෸ᩍᤵ㸪㤿⡲⣧ຓᩍ࡟ࡣ㸪ᮏ◊✲ࢆ㐙⾜࡟㈗㔜࡞⌧ᅾ࡜ᑗ᮶ࡢὶฟࢹ࣮ࢱࡸᚚຓゝ
ࢆ㡬ࡁࡲࡋࡓ㸬ࡇࡇ࡟グࡋ࡚῝ࡃឤㅰ࠸ࡓࡋࡲࡍ㸬ࡉࡽ࡟㸪Ỉ㈨※ᶵᵓⲨᕝࢲ࣒⥲ྜ⟶⌮
ᡤ࠿ࡽࡣỈ㉁ࣔࢹࣝࡢᵓ⠏࡟ᚲせ࡞ὶධ㔞࣭ᨺὶ㔞ࢆྵࡴከࡃࡢࡢࢹ࣮ࢱࢆࡈᥦ౪㡬ࡁࡲ
ࡋࡓ㸬ࡇࡇ࡟グࡋ࡚῝ࡃឤㅰ࠸ࡓࡋࡲࡍ㸬
ᮏ◊✲ࢆ㐙⾜ࡍࡿ࡟࠶ࡓࡾ㸪㫽ྲྀ኱ᏛᕤᏛ㒊ᅵᮌᕤᏛ⛉ỈᕤᏛ◊✲ᐊࡢᏛ⏕ࡢⓙᵝ࡟ࡣ㸪
බ⚾࡟ࢃࡓࡾከࡃࡢᚚᨭ᥼࡜ᚚ༠ຊࢆ㡬ࡁࡲࡋࡓ㸬≉࡟㸪ᮏㄽᩥࡢᇳ➹ࡢ㝿࡟⣽ᕝ㐩ஓྩ
࡜ᒣ⏣ᗣᘯྩ࿛မ᪥ᮏㄒࡢಟṇ࡟኱ኚ࡞ᚚຓຊࢆ㡬ࡁࡲࡋࡓ㸬ࡇࡇ࡟グࡋ࡚῝ࡃឤㅰ࠸ࡓ
ࡋࡲࡍ㸬ࡲࡓ㸪ᛅ໭኱ᏛᕤᏛ㒊⎔ቃᕤᏛ⛉⎔ቃࢩࢫࢸ࣒ᕤᏛ◊✲ᐊࡢ㒯ୡ㞝ᩍᤵ㸪ᮤ⯆὚
༤ኈ࡟ࡣ㸪㐲࠸࡜ࡇࢁ࠿ࡽከࡃࡢᚚຓゝࡸ⢭⚄ⓗ࡟ከ኱࡞ࡿᚚᨭ᥼ࢆ㡬ࡁࡲࡋࡓ㸬࿣࿣࿻
絽࿧࿶筐ထ࿶葙࿟笚艶࠸࿯࿧ဎ࿩㸬 G
᭱⤊࡟㸪➹⪅ࡢ኱Ꮫ㝔༤ኈᚋᮇㄢ⛬ࡲ࡛ࡢ㐍Ꮫࢆチࡋ࡚㡬ࡁ㸪ࡇࢀࡲ࡛≀㉁ⓗ࡟㸪⢭⚄
ⓗ࡟᥼ຓࡋ⥆ࡅ࡚ࡁ࡚ࡃࢀࡓ୧ぶ㸪㧗ᰯ࠿ࡽ኱Ꮫࡢ༞ᴗࡲ࡛⚾ࢆ⫱࡚࡚ࡃࡔࡉࡗࡓ♽ẕ㸪
ࡑࡋ࡚᭷୍ࡢ඗࡜඗᎑ࠊࡲࡓᐢࡋ࠸␃Ꮫ᫬࡟⏕άࡢάຊࢆ୚࠼࡚ࡃࢀࡓ⏚࡟ᑐࡋ㸪῝ࡃឤ
ㅰࡢពࢆ⾲ࡋࡲࡍ㸬

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